The Bridge with Peter Mansbridge - The Insiders -- Do Negative Ads Work?

Episode Date: September 6, 2021

We are entering the stretch run, the final two weeks, and the political ad segment of the campaign.  It really started this holiday weekend as the Liberals moved to blunt Conservative momentum. Did it work?  Does it work. Our Insiders look at that, plus the upcoming two debates this week -- and they give us the questions THEY would ask!

And hello there, Peter Mansbridge here. You are just moments away from the latest episode of The Bridge. It's the election edition, Mondays, it's the Insiders. Tim Horton's Smile Cookie Week is back, starting September 13th. For one week, the iconic chocolate chunk cookies topped with a pink and blue smile will be available at Tim Horton's restaurants across Canada. 100% of the proceeds from each Smile Cookie will be donated to local charities and community groups in each restaurant's neighborhood. Celebrating its 25th anniversary, the Smile Cookie campaign has raised more than $60 million for charities, hospitals,

and community programs across the country. Grab your Smile Cookie from September 13th to 19th, only at Tim Hortons. Hello there. Yeah, it's a big week. It's a big week. This is week four of the election campaign. We're into the nitty gritty now and a couple of big debates. Wednesday night, it's the French language debate. Thursday night, it's the English language debate. The one and only English language debate during the campaign. We're going to talk lots about the debates coming up on the insiders with our party insiders, Supriya Devweti, the Liberal Party, Tim Powers, the Conservatives, Kathleen Monk, NDP.

You can't get three better people than these three. I've known them for quite some time, some for a long time, and they really have a good analytical mind. They also kind of, you know, they know the talking points that the parties have. They know each other's talking points. And so they're great to listen to and i know

you're enjoying them as well because i've like i like to say i've seen the numbers for last week and they're pretty good especially for the insiders and good talk and smoke mirrors and the truth and the reporters they all are listened to by you and you also like to listen to your take on all this on the thursday edition last week of uh your thoughts on the campaign all right we're going to get to uh the insiders and their take on a big week ahead and as i you know a lot of things are at stake this week. The polls seem to indicate a very, very close race between the Conservatives and the Liberals and everybody watching closely to the NDP in terms of how they're doing,

what kind of campaign that Jagmeet Singh is running, and what impact that's having on the two front-running campaigns. So a lot of talk on that and a lot of talk about political ads as well, because political ads reared their head over the last couple of days of this holiday weekend. So let's get at it. Here we go. Coming up with the insiders. All right, the Insiders are here.

Supriya is in, well, you're somewhere in like cottage country, Ontario, right? Yeah, I'm near Muskoka actually right now. Good. Good for you. That's where one should be on a Labor Day weekend as we get ready to end our summer our summer on this, on this Monday, Tim is in Newfoundland. He should be here always Peter should be here all the time. Like, do you go there out there every weekend?

I have a bit since we've been allowed back in the beginning of July, I have been here four times, four times. Yes. That's pretty good. And he's a good son. He's good to his mom and i'm stuck at my desk in ottawa up here nothing exciting here that's because you're working everybody else's holiday mom working mom right exactly um okay i i want to start on um on tv ads because you know for the i've always sort of thought about political ads on television and radio and on social media, I guess, is really where it plays out these days. But I've always looked at them kind of like this. There's your basic high road ad, maybe just very neutral or it could be a little bit funny, but it's basically boring.

It gets interesting when you start to move into the kind of negative ads. And there can be soft negative or there can be hard negative. And you know when somebody goes negative, soft or hard, that it's likely because they think they're in trouble and they've got to do something to get back into the position they want to be in. So we watched the Liberals this weekend go with a series of soft negative ads. They're not like hard negative, like people can be really critical of them because I don't think they're that kind of ad. We've all seen those in the past.

But these are trying to make a point and they're they're they're they're dragging Aaron O'Toole through his vulnerabilities in these ads but let's talk about enough from me let's talk to the professionals as to what they sense in the early go-round on the political ads and uh Supriya you wanted to deal with this so you get to start yeah i mean look i think going negative is always sort of interesting right i think we tend to and there's a bit of a cliche i suppose in politico circles where it's like nobody likes negative ads you always want to make positive hopey changey optimistic ads but the reality is people like negative ads it's you know nobody likes to admit

it nobody wants to say i really like this negative ad because you kind of seem like a jerk but you know it's it's just it's just the way it is and so i what i really like about the ads that the you know the liberals put out over the weekend um i mean well there are a couple of things the first is that first and foremost and this is where O'Toole can possibly get into quite a bit of trouble here, is that his own words are being used against him. Right. And we're seeing this when we're talking about whether we were talking about abortion and his explicit mention of conscious rights and the platform. Now we're talking because of the debate that was brought up when it comes to, you know, the ban on assault rifles and page 90. And, you know, now there's page 90 in his platform and he's doing a little bit of flip flopping here. But this is what happens when you run as a true blue, you know, quote unquote conservative trying to appeal to a segment of the conservative base.

That is often offside with the general electorate on not just guns but on a myriad of issues and so it'll be really interesting i think going forward now that he is you know the front runner and now that people are trying to picture a prime minister o'toole what that sort of looks like and you know it's hard to pin aaron o'toole down as like this lunatic fringy nutty guy because he is very likable but that's also why when he was running the way he did as leader it was so confounding i think to a lot of observers and to a lot of people i think that your point about negative ads is right i mean they the fact is whether people like them or not they work work. They tend to have worked over time. Even some of the worst of the negative ads, those who track these things say they work.

Tim, where are you on all this? Well, it's funny on that very ad Supriya is talking about, talking about your modern quintessential Canadian moment. I saw the contrast ad, the Trudeau ad, turning around O'Toole's words, sitting in a Tim Hortons drive-thru, and it was being tweeted out by Liberal staff, people, or other Liberal supporters, which tells you something else, too, Peter. Part of what these ads, too, are about, not just to go after O'Toole, but also to motivate Liberal troops and forces,

and social media allows you to do that, because whether they will admit it or not, they're anxious. We're all anxious. It's a close election. You'd be foolish not to be anxious. So that's part of the tool there. Supriya, I think the conservatives yesterday also put out an ad in response to the ad, which talks about the speed at which things get done now, using Trudeau's words against him. I haven't seen that one. I thought the ad the Liberals put out was pretty good, because the one thing I'm picking up here,

and I think we'll see this play out this week here in Newfoundland, and this is strong Liberal territory, as you know, they have six of seven seats here. But when I was talking to human beings outside of us who don't live politics, two things they came to me with were about, we're not, why do we need this election? But we're not really sure we can vote for Aaron O'Toole. They're angry at Trudeau, but they're not sure whether they can go as far as O'Toole. The liberals are picking this up in the research.

The conservatives are picking this up in the research. So when you see that liberal ad of yesterday, it plays to that theme. OK, we get you're angry at us, but do you want this other person who you don't know who has these positions that may not be comfortable for you? And I think we're going to see a lot terms of either negative or not. And ready just to push the play button on those. But Kathleen, you know, you're not just a political strategist. You're a former producer. So you're looking at this stuff from a, from a number of different angles and what are you seeing?

Yeah. From a television news perspective, but also as someone who's produced a lot of different angles and and what are you seeing yeah from a television news perspective but also as someone who's produced a lot of different campaign ads too so i guess the one thing the refinement i put on what sapria said off the top um you know she made the comment saying nobody likes um or i can't remember what she said exactly about negative ads but things you go to any focus group anywhere and they will say oh i don't like that ad. It's too negative. Tsk, tsk. It would never work on me is what every focus group participant says. But then we know from testing them two weeks later or on a callback that they do remember the ad. That's the thing. So they'll say they don't like the ad, but we know the ad works because there's been some research that says that almost the negative ads are almost twice as sticky.

So people tend to remember them more. And therefore, from a campaign perspective, they work. Right. And that's why we look at them. But you picked up on a few other things. So I would say all the ad, every ad series or, you know, when you're thinking about creating ads for a campaign, it always starts with the research. So it starts with all of those focus groups. It starts with all of that, that research, you want to do quantitative research. So you even know what questions to go into the focus group with to start with. But then there are the ads that Tim was mentioning. So you do some for broadcast, but you may want to have a whole

series that are just about motivating your own base. And I think that maybe that's what this series of O'Toole ads might be about frothing up that base. They're using his own words saying, don't take Canada backwards. You know, they had all those clips of him off the top saying, take Canada back, take Canada back. And they played on those words saying, don't take Canada backwards. And I know from the focus groups that I've done on O'Toole in the winter and in the spring, that this temporal moment of COVID, so this time that we're in, this risky period that we're in where everything seems so uncertain, people will not be willing maybe to make a risky choice on a tool at this time, whereas maybe they do like him, but maybe this is just not the time for a tool right now. So I think I see the liberals trying to play on that, trying to, even if you like him, you think you might want to have a beer on him. You can't vote for him right now just to get enough people to not go into his camp. So I think that's what the ads are doing, but there's lots of

stuff. I mean, ads are such a fun and rich topic for us to talk about because it's not just, you know, the crafting of the ad and the research of the ad, but then it's like, how do you place the ad? You know, what, what format are you going to put it out? Are you actually going to put any money behind it? Cause increasingly a lot of these ads you see have very low dollar values behind them and are meant to go viral. and then some are just pounding away and on every show and on every radio and on all the social channels trying to target very uh narrowly their certain audiences that's a good point but you know what else is a good point kathleen is they're not just trying to go after their own base to re-motivate them they're trying

to go after your kind of soft ndp votes right they're trying to get them to move over to the to the liberals as they always do at a time as they always do yeah and the question is will that strategic voting play which we know and we've you know seen play out really i think most dramatically since the the martin? Like, I think back to that campaign with Martin when he was, you know, going back and back from the East Coast to the West Coast and really saying, give me your vote right now. That to me was the biggest strategic play. And I think people are getting a bit tired of it now. And yeah, so, but we'll see for sure. And I think new Democrats are getting better at understanding, and this may be a topic for another day, but about the closing message of a campaign, right?

So you think of a campaign as a 36 day campaign, no four and a half, five weeks, whatever it is. And, and then which message you put out, which week we're now going into the fourth week of this campaign. Please correct me if my math's right, folks. Uh, I think it's the fourth week we're entering and And so we're getting close to that, you know, campaign close message. And how do we shift? What do we focus on? Where do we go? Are they going to start to squeeze us on the strategic vote, you know, or do we just push back? You know, Peter, can I just say one point

very quickly here? So Thursday night, we're going to talk about the basis, the English debate. Also, Thursday night is the biggest live sporting event to take place since the election began, which is the kickoff of the NFL season. For years, conservatives use those live sporting events as platforms to put out ads. It will be fascinating to watch or afterwards look at what who rolled out what ads and what the ads were on Thursday evening because I don't want to break people's hearts listening to this podcast but I suspect there'll be more viewers of that football game for consistency than there will be more viewers of that debate and I will be fascinated to see what strategies employed on Thursday evening. Do you want to jump in on this, Supriya?

Yeah, I mean, I agree with that. And I think, you know, when we were talking about this a little bit last week, we had mentioned that when, you know, some of the demographic differences in terms of the vote split, and it's very clear, at least, that conservatives have had an edge with men generally, and now they're starting to tick up with younger men as well so you know millennial men um and to to tim's point with respect to the you know nfl kickoff or whatever i would suspect that there would be a lot of millennial men tuning into that nfl match so i i i really look forward to seeing what gets rolled out. I agree. You know, Kathleen mentioned money here.

And, you know, a lot of money is spent on these ads, so they're producing them and then placing them, as she says. What does that represent in a normal party's budget? How much of their budget do they say, you know, they've obviously got the leaders tour and all that and signs and what have you how much of a what would be an average percentage that would end up going towards the campaign whether it's on um you know on on social media or on television or wherever what kind of percentage are we talking about has anybody got those kind of numbers i mean that's the secret sauce, right? How the

different campaigns manage their budgets. I mean, there was this famous story about Mr. Finley, correct me if I'm wrong, from the Conservative Party, Tim, but who, former senator, now passed, but he used to only pay staff these very minimal salaries so that he could actually save most of that budget for for television and any kind of advertisements, radio or whatever. But, you know, in the past, the Democrats certainly have struggled in kind of getting those large 10 million plus 12 million, you know, budgets to go for the. But this this time around in 2021, they are going to max out the campaign spend. But what the percentages are, if it's like a third on tour,

a third on staff, a third on advertisements, is a decision that every national campaign director makes. That's their privilege, right? And how they allot that. Interestingly, I'd be curious, and I don't have any line onto this, but if tours are costing a lot less this time around, because potentially there's not that much zigzagging around the country. There's a lot more virtual events, not just on Mr. O'Toole's campaign,

but on all the campaigns are doing more virtual events. So maybe there's fewer tour costs. I don't know. But you want to spend as much money as you can on advertising because the air war is incredibly important. The one-third, one-third, one-third, where you were just picking numbers out of the air. You weren't suggesting anything. Well, I would never tell the secret sauce

because that's the secret sauce. Even on your podcast, Manfred. The secret sauce on tour costs is that they stick it all on the media anyway. Anyway, yeah. They overcharge the media for the flights and the meals and hotels. Not at all. Oh, come on. give us any idea on percentages or some sense of of what your budget would be on uh on on television and social media etc i was i was liking the lament for the poor journalists keep going

i didn't say the journalists were poor their organizations are more destitute than they once were, as we all know. But that's another day. I think Kathleen's right in the general percentage area. I think what you're also seeing now, Peter, with ads is they get lumped into the get out the vote spending because a lot of which which is an important element, too, because you're also connecting with people on social media and you're creating different ads around all of that. You know, back to Kathleen's point about Doug Finley and Patrick Moutard, who I mentioned on this podcast before, their idea was not to spend lots of money on the production. In fact, there was their view was highly produced ads as they related again to Stephen Harper, weren't reflective of who they wanted Stephen Harper to be and what they saw in the focus groups. And you remember, it was the 06 or 08 campaign,

some of the ads got ridiculed for not being of the highest production. They looked like something you would see on the shopping channel. But Mottard and Finley swore by that, because again, to Kathleen's point, they believe the better buy, and this is the other part of your question was on placing them. So producing ads is one thing, and then there's buying the spot. So back to that NFL game, you're going to buy ads on that NFL game. That's probably at least this week, the most expensive piece of real estate in the country. So do you spend that money in hopes that you can achieve what it is you're hoping to achieve? So placement costs money.

So I would almost say if you roll it in with Get Out the Vote, it's probably up around them together 50, 60%. Yeah, and to Tim's point there, it'll also be really interesting to see in terms of placement if some of that gets rejigged or re-strategized. Like if we're talking about folks once again needing to go, you know, stay home in terms of rush hour because they're not going into work as much because, you know, the Ontario Science Table just did just come out this past week and saying that we need to cut our, our pre our contacts up to 70% from pre pandemic levels. It's like, okay, so all of a sudden you're no longer spending a ton of money on like AM drive radio, right. Or, or, or the PM drive rate, like in terms of the rush home. So that will also be interesting to me. And then, you know, to, we've mentioned this before,

but how much of the ad by how much of that gets rejigged fromged from, you know, traditional broadcast and traditional media to more on the social side and some of the more innovative things like going directly to PlayStation or Xbox One and what have you. And as you're like segmenting off, you know who you need to get the vote out for and who you need to get the message out too. On conventional television, the Conservatives have, since back in, I think it was the 06 or maybe even the 04 campaign you were talking about, Tim, in terms of those first ads, because they were brutal. I mean, they look brutal to a professional, right? But you're right. They seem to be connecting on a totally different level than none of us were aware of.

And the Conservatives made a fine uh of putting campaign ads in sporting events mainly hockey um you know in the in the spring because of stanley cup when they when the vote was in the spring and in the fall once the season the hockey season started so this is a little different with the opening nfl game and before hockey starts, but they were attracting a certain kind of audience. And Supriya says it's mainly millennial men and older males who are there. You know, when you look at the demographics right now in terms of the way the polling stuff is going, that's their vote.

You know, they're doing well there. They're getting somewhat clobbered on the female side, but on the male side, they're doing okay. So they get to them this way and maybe expand that vote. Can I give you a quick little story because it relates to this? Because it's about connecting with an audience. So after Harper won in 06, one of the first, our company was doing some work with CTV Globe Media,

and at that time, as you know, they produced Corner Gas. And I got a call from Ian Brody saying, Prime Minister wants to go on Corner Gas, because you'll recall that Paul Martin had been on Corner Gas. So not only were they looking for ads, they were looking for cultural, popular Canadian cultural programs that attracted the audience they were looking for in 2010, while working still for CTV Globe Media, got a call saying, and I don't be offended by this, Peter, that Prime Minister wanted to go meet Jay Onright, of course, a very popular sports broadcaster and wanted to do something with him. Again, knowing very well that was all driven both

by the Prime Minister of the day's interest in that arena but also knowledge of the power of the audience that these personalities or programs connected to so the advi will also reflect that you know god forbid they should they should try to get on you know news programs but you know they they love the sports shows and and he wasn't alone in terms of harper i mean mulroney used to do that as well, and I think Craychen did that as well. They also lined up to get on Rick Mercer's show or on 22 Minutes. You know, no problem. Make fun of me.

Be funny. I'll be funny. That will work for me. They love doing those kind of programs. And, you know, I saw on Instagram yesterday that Mark Critch is up on one of the planes for the next couple of days. So he'll be, you know, he'll be doing his shtick. If you recall, Peter, many moons ago in 2011, when you were up interviewing Jack Layton, I was working for Jack Layton at the time. One of our campaign stops that you were on was in Newfoundland,

and we stopped and Sean Magender joined us on to screech in Jack Layton on the plane. So those kind of happenstances are really important, but it's also important to understand if you're speaking to the right audience. So when I had to join the plane in the campaign tour in 2011, it was because they were going to a TV show, which was my alma mater. I used to work for CTV and I used to work for a show called Canada AM, uh, their morning show. And, uh, there was a very popular weather broadcaster by the name of Jeff Hutchison, who was one of the most well-known weather broadcasters in Canada. And I said to him, like, listen, Jeff is more well-liked than basically any other broadcaster,

with, of course, the exception of you, Peter, in Canada. I'm like, we got to get you to do the weather with Jeff. This is going to be the winner, right? And so I, you know, talked to people, figured out a way that he could do the weather that morning with Jeff and and it just went viral. And that was really part of. And then a few days later, you joined the campaign, Peter. And it just I mean, I remember we made the cover of some German magazine. Honestly, like it went international, Jack, doing this weather forecast. But it's those kind of moments that where people are watching, tuning in, you know, whether it's the Rick Mercers or the Jeff Hutchinson weather or whatever, that people like to see them in an environment that they're used to watching. And so whether it's fans of Corner Gas or whatever.

Just to clarify for our listeners, because I know they're all starting to write the emails like right now to me about see we always knew you were a commie well when you say when you say he joined the campaign when peter joined the cat but it was it was it was it was a great opportunity and it was the beginning you know for a lot of us of really sensing that there was something going on in that 2011 campaign, you know, the Orange Crush. I mean, that was a short trip for me because to get away from the studio, you know, we did Montreal, Charlottetown, and then Newfoundland, all in a couple of days.

And Jeff Hutchison is a great guy, absolutely. And he's a friend, and he's friend and uh i love watching and listening and reading his uh tweets you know quite often he's usually very pointed in terms of what he has to say and not just about the weather uh okay we're going to take a quick break come back and talk about what the real issue is this week. Coming up in a couple of days, debate nights once again in French, and then the big and the one and only debate in English. We'll talk about that in just a moment. Starting September 13th, Tim Hortons Smile Cookie Week is back.

From September 13th to 19th at Tim Hortons, 100% of the proceeds from all Smile Cookies purchased will be donated to local charities and community groups across Canada. In the last 25 years, you have helped us raise over $60 million. And in 2020 alone, Smile Cookie Week brought in $10.6 million while helping over 500 community organizations. You can participate by grabbing your own Smile Cookie at Tim Hortons restaurants across Canada from September 13th to 19th. Okay, we're back. Kathleen's in Ottawa.

Spree is in Muskoka. And Tim is in Newfoundland and Labrador. He's in St. John's. Great place. And Tim is in Newfoundland and Labrador. He's in St. John's. Great place. It's funny hearing about Sean Jumper in that last thing, because last week when we talked about going cod fishing with David Cochran, that was in Sean Jumper's boat.

And Sean was driving it. Sean was driving it. And it was the morning of Mark Critch's wedding. So, I mean, all these things were happening and few people remember that it was Mansbridge who caught the first cat. There you go. Bragging rights.

Bragging rights will last forever. But it was a fantastic trip and it was a great visit. Okay, debates. You know, you will all get an award if we can get through this without using the usual debate clichés. And we all use them, and I probably use them more than anybody. But there's a lot at stake on Thursday night especially. We'll deal with the English one because there's already lot on at stake on Thursday night, especially.

We'll deal with the English one because there's already been one French. However, in terms of what we saw last Thursday in that first French debate, what do the various leaders, and pick one, pick your own if you wish, what do they have to do differently in this debate? What was the warning shot over their bow, so to speak, in terms of what they've got to clean up for Thursday? And who would like to start? Yeah, I mean, I can jump in here.

I think Trudeau did very well in the French language debate, and I think it sort of reinvigorated the troops, so to say. And when we were talking about, you know, rattled supporters and there was a little bit of, oh, yeah, our guys still got some fight in him. And, you know, let's let's going to have to do and be able to pivot and straddle both messages is, yes, point out the weaknesses of your opponents. Definitely point out the inconsistencies with respect to Mr. O'Toole in particular. But I think you also need to then go to the, OK, don't vote for this guy, but this is why you're voting for me. Right. And so I think the message on child care, I think the message on climate change, I think the message on like we're going to be there for you to get you through the tail end. And that this election is too important, you know, to leave to some dude who can't even remember

what's on page 90 of his platform. Does he have to be able to answer the question? Why is there an election a little better than the way he did the other day? Yeah. I mean, I think so. And I mean, it's interesting because I think when we were first out of the gate with our first podcast, I think I said something along the lines of you can complain about an election, but like once you're in the thick of it, like that's it. It's kind of like complaining about the reps,

right? You can complain about the refs all you want, but if you're up to shoot free throws, you better sink those buckets. And like, it's, it's, it's kind of like the same thing here.

It is a little bit odd to me that the message from the liberals from the onset wasn't that we're having an election because we need to finish the fight and like we need a mandate to do so um because that's simple it's it's graspable uh to the to a regular canadian and whereas you know you can make the argument and the ndp certainly have rather effectively that parliament you know was working and they had their back it's like well things are different and you know we actually are not just dealing with the pandemic we're dealing with climate change we're dealing with child care being on the ballot and i don't know if those arguments have been um made forcefully enough to the general electorate certainly to their supporters

but there's a whole segment of the population, particularly on childcare, that I don't know if they necessarily appreciate the economic returns that a national childcare program will deliver. All right. Kathleen, what does Jagmeet Singh have to do? Well, I'm just hoping that there are no liberals listening to Supriya's very good advice. So if you could just play this podcast, maybe Friday, so they don't hear her because she has some wise counsel there for the liberals. But on Jagmeet Singh, I mean, the thing about having multiple debates is that you can course correct. Although I would point out that this coming Thursday's debate is such a different format than the TVA debate that they just did last Thursday, but it was a one,

one anchor wonder, you know, this multi anchor thing that's going to happen on Thursday. I don't know why the debate commission just can't get it kind of the format kind of nailed down. Cause I think people all agreed that the format on, on Thursday at TVA debate was, was a strong one.

I'll tell you why. Yeah. I'll tell you what I think the reason is. Because Fred Parker's not running the show. Is that why? No, no, no. No. I doubt whether Fred would have wanted that.

Fred Parker is a director. You know, I can call the cameras and stuff like that in the past, but he, like some other great CBC people, has retired since those days. No, the reason why is, you know, as bad as that was, and it was awful, I thought it was brutal, it got more viewers than any other debate that's ever been done. So you have this clash, you have the networks going

and pushing on the debate commission saying, you want more people served? Well, you couldn't want more people served well we couldn't get more people served than this now i think they were watching because it was like watching a car crash it was you know it was crazy um but i think that's the reason they've gone with more or less it's a little different you know uh sachi curl is going to moderate these five anchors asking all the leaders their own series of different questions but i think that's that's the reason why now i interrupted you before you were going to make your well just to answer your question quickly i would say that um you know he suffers almost from the

opposite effect of jack layton so jack layton in his early debates uh often was identified as a bit of a badger, constantly interrupting and getting in. So we actually had to pull him back on early or on subsequent debates. We'd often rein him in. But Jagmeet's the opposite. We almost need, like, I hope

that people dial Jagmeet up a bit in the next couple of debates where he intervenes a bit more, has some more forceful moments. Okay, Tim? Well, I think one of these points also relates to the prime minister because I think he and O'Toole are trying to manage the very obvious current of anger that is out there.

And as the two frontrunners, they want that current of anger to run over their competitor as opposed to being run over by it. As you rightly posed the question to Supriya, there still is anger at the prime minister for the self-interested election as it's being described by his opponents. And that hasn't dissipated for four weeks. But you've seen the prime minister now try and drive that anger over to O'Toole and say, look, do you really want to elect this person? Do you know where he stands on vaccinations, guns, et cetera? So O'Toole has to deal with that.

The other thing O'Toole has to deal with, I think, is why choose me? Because that is, Kathleen talked about it in her focus group research, as I said earlier, that's what I keep hearing from everybody. Why Aaron O'Toole? We're mad at Trudeau, but why aaron o'toole so how does o'toole do that i think that's part tone i think he's got a if he is casting himself as the average middle class person while he has to act prime ministerial he has to be relatable and i think mr layton did that with great effect in 2011 so relat relatability, how does he transmit that? I think he also, and Tom Mulcair said this, so sorry, Kathleen, I'm referring to Tom Mulcair. He also said that it's important that his answers be shorter.

I think Aaron likes to be very, very, very long and thoughtful in his answers. That doesn't work in debates i'm almost mirroring aaron o'toole right now the third point i'd make is is this i think he's just gotta he's gotta hold his own against trudeau and he can't go over the top he cannot overreach if he overreaches that confirmation bias that people already want to have about why should I elect that guy will be met and that will not be good for him. Okay, I want you to put each of you put your questioner's hat on. What's the one question you would ask? I'm going to pad this out a little bit to give you some time to think about it.

What's the one question you would ask if you could ask any one of these leaders something? What would it be? Now, I don't want an Aaron O'Toole answer length question. I just want a question. So who would like to go first? Kathleen's got her hand up. Come on. You know the keener.

I'm going to go first. Okay. I'm jumping in because Tim gave me the floor. Okay. So two questions. I'm going to cheat as I reach you. in because tim gave me the floor okay so so two questions i'm going to cheat as i always do so one for mr trudeau and one for mr o'toole uh i'll start with mr o'toole mr o'toole why didn't you uh kick out some of you know why didn't you take care of the problems in your caucus uh earlier like mr sloan what took you so long uh to get

rid of people like mr sloan what was the hesitation hesitation there for Mr. Trudeau? I'd say, you know, another, what, why didn't you get it done in the past six years? Why haven't you these promises, whether it's childcare, whether it's climate change, whether it's taxing big, wealthy corporations, why couldn't this have been done in the past six years? So those are the two I'd put to them. Okay. Kathleen got to two so i'm gonna get two as well um my first if it's in french i would have everybody pronounce puts in because

jagmeet last week had this i don't know man a puts in truck and it was not for me as somebody who grew up in granby it was a hate crime against Quebecers as well as Indian people all at once. Sweet potato fries do not belong in a poutine, so I'll just put that there. And then my more salient question, I think, is somewhat along the lines of what Kathleen had said, but to O'Toole in particular, it would be, you know, why should Canadians vote for your team? And I think, you know, when you're talking about Aaron O'Toole himself versus the party, I'm not really sure we're getting enough scrutiny when it comes to the party. To Kathleen's point about kicking people out. I mean, there are a ton of people that currently sit in caucus that I think if your average voter heard what their views on were on a number of issues would be

rather spooked. And that to me is kind of an interesting question. I, even though I don't expect it to be asked, why don't any of you guys follow the rules of our little thing here? I'm going to try. Okay. Go for it.

Well, I'll tell you the question I wouldn't ask Jagmeet Singh because he got asked it here this week and he didn't do very well. Who was the first premier of Newfoundland and Labrador? And as a Newfoundlander and Labradoran, you should know that's Joey Smallwood. So that one aside, what I would ask. I can't believe that he didn't have that answer. I know. The former last living father of Confederation because joey is no longer with us

um the question i would ask and i think it's to a tool and trudeau and i take it from the very important focus group i had this afternoon with my mother's bridge club and listening to them talk about all of this and it was how can i believe anything that you're saying there is this it's about believability and picks up off of supriya's uh theme so kathleen alluded to mr trudeau in his six years so you're telling me you're going to do this now why should i believe you in mr o'toole's case again just taking it to to guns your platform says this and it says another thing why should i believe you and i think whoever can best dress that up throughout the debate has the best chance of of scoring a few public opinion

points in their favor and i i would imagine many public opinion points because if there's a common question in mind from coast to coast to coast it's that one it's like why do you never deliver on what you say you're going to why can't i believe anything you say um that you know that's a very good question and and coming i'll tell the bridge group you like to peter they will be very pleased absolutely okay uh anime poll she's going to be in this debate her party is in like serious trouble but a debate can can really boost your chances so what does she have to do? I don't know what advice she's getting or from whom,

but she couldn't get it from three better people than, than right here. So in a sentence, hint, hint in a sentence, what is your advice for the green party leader? Supriya. I don't know if I have anything that would be constructive at this point

because her party is in such disarray as an, in such shambles. But if I had to pick something and to stick with the rules, Peter, I think I would say something along the lines of like, just keep doing what you're doing. Like keep your head down. She's, she's very smart. She is doesn't speak in these weird political talking points.

And I find that incredibly refreshing. And you know, I think it's going to be nerve wracking for her, obviously being on her first federal debate stage, but you know, just remind people why you're there uh but unfortunately i i don't expect the greens to be picking up a ton of seats if if any um because of the way the party has dealt with this entire thing tim tell the audience why you should be elected in Toronto and why that matters because she's not there to win the general election.

She's there to get a seat and demonstrate some of the skills that Supriya pointed out. So be very targeted. Don't be the disruptor. Don't be Elizabeth May who had a different agenda when she was there. Make it about getting yourself elected first. Sorry, three sentences. Significant opportunity for her for the first time on that national stage, having equal time as the other federal leaders. She's got to use her opening and closing statement to make a compelling case, not only for her, but to reelect her two current MPs, because that is the litmus test for her, really. If she drops down one,

if she loses Paul Manley, she potentially loses elizabeth may never mind not wins her own seat that that spells even more dire situation for the green party i think this is the first time she'll have been out of toronto since campaign started she's that's right you know it's toronto center that it's uh toronto center i believe that she's running in smallest smallest riding in the country yet with the with more voters than any other riding in the country which is interesting when you look at Nunavut largest riding in the country smallest number of voters in the country and you say okay so whose vote matters more if you're one vote in Nunavut do you have more power than one vote in Toronto Centre? It's an interesting thought.

Okay, here's another question. And we'll have to wonder whether this is going to come up. You've got to assume with all the heavyweight hitters there asking questions. But very little has been discussed about what is supposedly one of the biggest issues confronting canadians which is climate change i don't think there was anything significant in the in the first french language debate the other night on climate change but it doesn't seem to be a topic that's discussed very very much on on the trail and you know what isn't discussed at all or seemingly not at all,

certainly not getting any coverage, is the one that a month before the campaign started, we all thought was going to be potentially the most dominant issue, and that was Indigenous rights. That doesn't come up anywhere. So what happened on those? Who wants to run at that? Because all parties have the opportunity to be going harder on these issues. Look, I think it also matters what the media focuses on and what the media asks, right?

And this isn't me pretending like I'm not trying to do hashtag blame journalists here or anything like that. But I think the coverage of climate change is that political reporters often treat climate change as a political game, um, to be one up in terms of who's sniping at whom at any given moment, and not necessarily the biggest crisis that our planet is facing. And I think a lot of it has to do, and I've had a lot of gripes with respect to political reporting when it comes to the pandemic. And I think a lot of it has to do with the've had a lot of gripes with respect to political reporting when it comes to the pandemic and i think a lot of it has to do with the fact that you know very few journalists have a substantive understanding of the science behind climate change and they've we've both sided this issue for way too long and it's incredibly disappointing to me and i think you

know part of that is also mirrored and can be explained by the lack of coverage of Indigenous issues. If, you know, everyone on the campaign trail that's following either any of the leaders around, if they don't have Indigenous background, if they're not necessarily from racialized backgrounds, it's another good point as to why we haven't really talked about the O'Toole platform not mentioning anything not having the word Islamophobia in there not having the word black in there like these are these are huge blind spots and they're not necessarily being covered because the people covering them also have those blind spots I can tell you that for five days in the first two weeks of the campaign I was inside the Arctic Circle working on a documentary for the CBC which unfortunately won't air until the new year.

But it's on climate change, partly on climate change. And I can still hear the sound of the water dripping off the glaciers inside the Arctic Circle. And I was a half a mile away from them. And you could hear it pouring off those glaciers. So believe me, I know all of you do, but some people still don't. It's happening. It's real. It's very real.

Tim, on the two issues. Well, I think Supriya is totally right on the media agenda because a narrative has developed. Whether it's right or wrong, it's certainly something the O'Toole people are happy about, and that is all parties now have a policy on carbon pricing. So it's harder to pick a part. You've even seen the Global Mail come out and say, not that editorials matter, but, you know, the Liberals have a plan, the Conservatives' plan is better than it was.

So it's not as contentious, at least in the eyes of the people covering it. On Indigenous rights, reconciliation, I think they're all afraid to be called out as hypocrites and have that uh anything they say be challenged again around believability because of the potency and shock that we've seen over the summer of all of the discoveries of of residential school grave sites and the like so i think they're all running away from that as fast as they can because you can probably find a candidate in some party or someone else who has said something they shouldn't have out of context entirely wrong and they don't

want to touch it and have a blowback on them and that's cowardly but that i think is the path all right kathleen you get the last word you have a minute to say it in well i would just say that the topics for this wednesday's debates the french debate are actually already out they just crossed the wire today and and they're focused on obviously indigenous issues and identity and culture issues and also environment is another topic i think there's five topics in in general and those two topics will come up. So I think, you know, there's still a lot of time left and runway in this campaign. And I know that these issues are truly important to Canadians, despite the fact that Supriya mentions and Tim has

mentioned they haven't gotten as many headlines or as much ink or as many soundbites. So hopeful that we'll see more of that in the coming days. All right. It is week four. You were right about that, Kathleen, which means next week is the last full week before the election. You know, we often talk in campaigns about, oh, my God, this seems to have been going on for so long. This one hasn't.

Doesn't feel that way. And we really are now kind of in the stretch run, the final two weeks before all this happens. So thank you for your advice. Thank you for your thoughts on all this, and we look forward to talking to you again a week from now. All right. There we go with the insiders and their take on where we are right now. Now, I've got a few things to mention before we wrap this one up for today,

this Labor Day, Holiday Weekend Monday. You know that I like to give you a fun fact each day that I can, and this is one of them. Elections Canada, you know, that's the agency that kind of oversees elections in Canada

for the federal election, is the longest standing independent electoral commission in the world. It was created in 1920. And they appointed a chief electoral officer for life back in 1920. But now Parliament appoints that person for a 10-year term, which is a long term. Stéphane Perrault was appointed Chief Electoral Officer of Canada on June 8, 2018. So he's only a couple of years into his term as the CEO. He's one of the few Canadians over the age of 18 who by law is not allowed to vote in a federal election.

That's because he or she has a duty to uphold the principles of absolute neutrality and non-partisanship. That goes with the job. On the day of a federal election, Elections Canada becomes the largest employer in the country. The agency hires about a quarter of a million people, 250,000 people in communities across the country. And by law, they've got to have the election on a Monday unless Monday is a holiday. Then it's the Tuesday after that holiday. A couple of other things to mention.

You heard me talk a moment ago about my documentary on climate change and Arctic sovereignty, which will be going early next year on the CBC. It'll be good. You'll want to watch it. But I have a documentary coming up at the end of this week, on Friday night at 8 o'clock on CBC and CBC Gem. September 10th. You can probably guess what it's about. This Saturday is the 20th anniversary of 9-11, September 11th.

And on Friday night at 8 o'clock, my documentary will deal with, and it's called, Unfinished Business. Because there is unfinished business on this story. There's a lot of focus on what happened, not so much on why it happened. What was behind it? What are the questions that have been raised in the 20 years about what was behind 9-11? You might want to find time for this one. It's interesting as well. It's called Unfinished Business. It's my documentary around the question of 9-11. And finally,

remember last year, the book I wrote with Mark Bulgich, Extraordinary Canadians, it was extremely popular, it was the number one national bestseller. And I foolishly offered to sign some book plates for those of you who listen to the podcast and were reading the book. I'm just kidding, it wasn't foolish. It was very kind of you to write, and a lot of you did. Well, this year, as a result of that, and there's so many other things I'm trying to do at the same time here, that while we will have some book plates, we're going to run a contest.

So the book's called Off the Record. It'll be hitting the shelves a month from now on October 5th. Special pre-order promotion for the Bridge listeners. Pre-order Off the Record in hardcover or e-book between September 6th and September 30th and upload your proof of purchase

on my website, thepetermansbridge.com There'll be a special box there for it. You'll find it. Starts up today or tomorrow, that box. But you have to pre-order the book first and prove that you have. And you'll be in line for the first 50 signed book plates. Off the record is the name of the book. PeterMansbridge.com is my website. You'll find it there. Simon & Schuster is the publisher. Thanks for listening today. We'll be back tomorrow with the reporters.

I'm Peter Mansbridge. Thanks for listening.