The Bridge with Peter Mansbridge - The Insiders -- This Is It!

Episode Date: September 20, 2021

It's all over except for the voting and today the Insiders with their stories about what E Day can be like -- for the leaders, for the staff and for the voters.

And hello there, Peter Mansbridge here. It's all over but the counting. That's right, it's E-Day, Election Day, coming up on The Bridge. You know, August 15th doesn't seem that long ago. In some ways, it feels like it was just yesterday. But that was August 15th. That's when all this started. Today's September 20th. And it's E-Day. It's Election Day.

It's Voting Day. It's time for you to make that final decision if you haven't already. We're going to talk about some of the people who've already made their decision and when their vote might actually get counted. That's a little later. But first up, the insiders. The insiders have been great throughout this campaign, giving us a sense of what it's like to be on the inside in an election campaign. You know who they are.

Kathleen Monk, who's worked with the NDP. Tim Powers, who's worked with the Conservatives. And Supriya Deveti, who has worked with the NDP, Tim Powers, who's worked with the Conservatives, and Supriya Deveti, who has worked with the Liberals. They're all with us again, ready for their take on E-Day. So let's get at it. All right, then, Supriya's in Toronto, Tim and Kathleen are in Ottawa. Listen, I want to start this off with a sense of, you know,

what this day or what the final couple of days are like. Because, you know, in the movie version of elections, you have, you know, you have somebody going up, one of the people, like the kind of positions you guys have held. You're going up to the candidate and sort of whispering in their ear, you're going to lose, so you better be ready for it. So you better think about what you're going to say or how how you're gonna act in this last day of campaigning um does that really happen is that something that happens kathleen i don't think it happens as dramatically on the

last day it's the last three days right you're Because you're going to have your lead speechwriter and they're going to be crafting that election night speech for days, truthfully. And they will have already crafted likely not just two iterations of that speech, but three. So there will always be the clear win, the clear loss, and then the uncertain, uncertain scenario. And so, you know, you're starting to to build towards different scenarios and what to tell the candidate for a number of days. That's based on polling. That's based on, you know, truthfully, in this campaign, in election 44 in 2021. You know what people looked at what happened last week when Premier Jason Kenney came out and really made a dramatic shift in the campaign that did seem to stall a lot of O'Toole's momentum. And there was a surge, you know, late last week and through the weekend, which may have stalled out Sunday for the Liberals. So you're getting a sense of where the campaign is going and thinking about what the scenarios are. I think if I was giving direction to somebody today, no matter what the campaign, I would

definitely have that unclear scenario speech being written because from polling I've seen, you know, there are about 65, 62, excuse me, seats that are really in that 5% range. And that's what makes this interesting, this election so interesting. And with all those mail-in ballots, which I'm sure we'll talk about, and how the count is going to proceed over the next few days, the advice you're giving right now internally is one, you know, of, of caution. Yeah. And the only thing I think I would add to that, Peter, is that in terms of what is a clear win or what's a clear loss, that's also a little bit fuzzy this time around too, right? Because I mean, arguably if whomever forms government, you know, I mean, if they're doing so

with an increase in seat counts, that's arguably a win. But if it's the liberals, you know, a lot of us going into this and I mean, I don't just mean liberals. I mean, like the chattering classes, politicos, people who watch this sort of thing. We're all sort of talking about a majority. Right. And so does anything less than a majority then qualify as a loss? I would say no, because if you've increased your seat count and if you have a stronger minority mandate, then that's arguably still a win. And for the Conservatives, if you are still in opposition, but you've edged up your seat count, is that not also a win? So I think that the goalposts have kind of somewhat shifted a little bit, too. You know, think about Andrew Scheer last time around.

He increases his votes, he increases his seats, and he gets whacked. You know, it's one and done for Andrew Scheer. And if I can just jump in on that, because that's the problem, right? There are winning campaigns, then there's the other kind, the losing kind. But all that can't be confused with a good campaign versus a bad campaign. And a good campaign is when there's, you know, good feeling among not only volunteers and voters and the leader and the leader's team. And Scheer did not have that last time. You know, I would say he had a bit of a winning campaign.

He didn't win ultimately, but he gained those 20 seats. He got the popular vote, you know, but he had a bad campaign. And whereas, you know, alternately Jagmeet Singh, who going into the last election, 2019, you know, people thought he was going to be decimated. So him holding on to 24 seats, cutting his caucus in half was still seen as a good campaign. People liked him coming out of it. So it's, you know, very topsy-turvy about how people actually judge these campaigns, especially when looking back at them. But damn, could Andrew Scheer sell insurance, Peter? Oh, wait, he couldn't. And the interesting, your point about Scheer, that's interesting too.

And Kathleen's about campaigns. Within the Conservative Party, there's an, too. And Kathleen's about campaigns within the Conservative Party. There's an ever ever present campaign that says you should always be defeating Justin Trudeau. You've already heard before the ballots are cast tonight, some framing that if Aaron O'Toole doesn't get a win, he's done because this was an election he could win. I don't ascribe to that theory, but certainly there are those in the Conservative Party who will view that as a must do. As to your original question, there's already framing floating around today from the Conservatives talking about what ought to be said through different scenarios of the campaign. So in modern times, with all of the campaign so in modern times with all of the polling with so much we've seen this

race you know in detail play itself out through all of these polls over the last week so these the people in all these campaigns aren't stupid they have their own polls they have these other polls candidates see what's happening too so they get prepared uh for everything so as kathleen said the dramatic movie moment of saying guess what buddy, buddy, you blew it doesn't really happen. And in the speeches, I, you know, I like the sense from Kathleen because, you know, the speeches aren't whipped up in a in a couple of moments there. There are days, if not weeks spent on what what should be said on on election night. But I assume there really are these as much as they may think they know what's going to happen, you never really know. So you got to be ready. So there really are like a,

you know, a series of potential speeches there, Tim. Yeah, Kathleen is bang on on that. There are different scenarios. For example, this evening, I'd say there are three active scenarios that could play out that the conservatives and the liberals have to play for. The most obvious one, which seems to be the most likely one, is a liberal minority. So both parties are preparing for that. The second greatest possibility probably is a liberal majority, which the liberals are hoping will happen. And the third, which is what the conservativesatives hope will happen, is a Conservative minority. So there are probably speeches in those two camps

that deal with all three of those things. And probably in Mr. Singh's camp, for the two minority possibilities, he has some language that he's working on as well. Yeah, and I'd expect there wouldn't be completely new speeches, right? there's just sections in the speech that are swapped out for others you know i supriya you mentioned earlier what would you know what could look for like a win for the liberals if it was a minority but they increased the number of seats didn't reach the majority which leaves open the assumption that you're suggesting if they don't make where they were last time around, but they still have a minority that has to be looked at as a loss. Yeah. And I mean, arguably it would be losing anything is a loss, is it not? And so when we're talking about electoral politics and you've lost

seats in an election where you, you know, decidedly chose to go to the polls and you chose the moment and you chose the framing um that's a loss yeah i mean i'm not gonna cut it any other way because i don't think there's very much spinning to be done and i mean you know you could couch it along the lines of oh well my opponents ran an excessively negative campaign blah blah blah but at blah. But at the end of the day, you know, if you're the one at the free throw line and you're missing your free throws, that's on you. What about the decision on the part of a leader on election night to throw in the towel and say, I'm out of here?

I mean, we've seen a number of examples of that in the past few years. Not every time, that's for sure. But in some cases where a leader has lost the election and decides on that night they're going to signal they're out of there. They are going to step down from the leadership role. something a decision that's made from your experiences by the leader themselves he or she decides on their own this is i'm out of here um or is this where you have the huddle and people make the arguments as to what should be appropriate kathleen well politics is a team sport and so yeah i mean any leader would consult their family, obviously their closest advisors. That would be a discussion that would be had amongst a number of people. I can't imagine a situation where advice and input from others wouldn't be taken and it's often it's not that often that you see that dramatic uh and i'm leaving um i i correct me if i'm wrong peter but i i do remember that happening with prentice was

that not correct prentice made that kind of quick decision um but but it's not jim prentice that is in alberta but i don't i don't i don't see it that often did Did Paul Martin? Sometimes it's obvious, Peter, though. Sometimes it's obvious. I mean, in the case of Mr. Martin in 2006, you knew if he didn't win, he was going to go. He didn't have to have a big huddle around all of that. He'd had his run. He's had two elections.

Stephen Harper, 2015 as well. You knew if he didn't win after 10 years in power, he was going to go, which makes tonight sort of interesting. I think it will be obvious for mr trudeau to announce he was going to go if he didn't win if the conservatives got a minority if as we suspect he gets a minority and it's even a little lesser i don't think he's going to say he's going to go tonight now he might say that in a year for a bunch of different reasons because i have a long health theory that the prime minister regardless if he wins is not going to run in the next election if mr o'toole um holds mr trudeau as it will be framed to a

minority tonight i don't think mr o'toole is going to say anything tonight about his leadership i think he will argue that he's got, you know, the three-step strategy as Tom Flanagan used to argue with Stephen Harper, hold them to a minority, win a minority, then win a majority. I don't think we're going to hear anything from Mr. Singh. So the only obvious I'm going to step down tonight or in the next number of days probably would be Mr. Trudeau if he loses the election. Yeah, I think that's probably about right. And I mean, I don't necessarily envision a scenario where that happens, but I think it's also interesting to note that nobody ever wants to be Bruce Willis in the sixth sense, right? Or everyone else knows you're dead except for you.

So, you know, the alternative is also a situation like in the last, in the last election, when Scheer came out, he didn't step down and said he was going to hang on, but all of those huddles were apparently happening behind the scenes without him. That's a situation where you want to avoid at all costs as well. Right. And some were having those huddles on air that night um you know suggesting such a such an outcome um i tend to agree with uh for for what it's worth which is probably not worth anything at all but um i tend to agree with tim on the sense that i don't think justin trudeau no matter what the outcome is tonight is going to run again but could be wrong you know um let me move to something that Kathleen brought up earlier, because we haven't seen this situation before where mail-in ballots, a particular kind of mail-in ballot. I'll go through them all later on in this program today.

But I don't think we've seen a situation where things could drag over for uh you know another day or two i mean 72 was a drag over to the next day decision but that wasn't about mail-in ballots that was just simply about counting in some very close ridings um but this one actually could now we've cautioned people before on things like this and it doesn't't usually play out, but it could today in close ridings, mail-in ballots could really make a difference. Kathleen, do you want to further explore that? You raised it. Yeah, I think that, you know, it's going to be interesting because we, first of all, we haven't had a federal pandemic election before. So this is the first time where we've seen this large a number of mail-in ballots um and as we know they won't be starting they won't be

counted today they'll start tomorrow correct me if i'm wrong peter a certain kind you know and i'll run through there are different kinds of mail-in ballots but a certain kind which could be a significant kind number uh you know it could be in the hundreds of thousands of ballots and there are a lot of writings in the country that aren't separated by a lot of votes yeah and there's some writings that we already know that there's you know uh thousands of mail-in ballots and those writings are often very very tight we're looking at some of those races in bc which are three-way races, and they're often, you know, definitely under, you know, 5,000, 3,000 votes. So we're going to be waiting for those ballots. So I think, I think, you know, we should demonstrate as Canadians that we can calmly wait and not

experience some of the things that our friends in the U.S. have experienced, just patiently and politely wait for the ballots to be counted. I'm going to ask you, all three of you in a moment, your favorite sort of Election Day story or anecdote that you watched close up. So think about that for a moment. But in the meantime, you know, there's this assumption on mail-in ballots, and I don't know where it comes from, I don't know why it exists, that the majority of those votes are liberal votes.

That for some reason, I mean, I heard Nick Nanos the other day saying four out of five are, you know, are liberal votes in mail-in ballots. Where's that assumption come from? Does anybody have an answer to that? I don't know where it comes from. We've put out an abacus poll yesterday, and there's some looking at a sense of people who voted already and asked them, those who mailed in what they voted, and we certainly didn't score a four out of five. So I was, in fact, almost even a liberal conservative in terms of mail-in.

So I don't know where Nick got that in particular, because in modern tradition, I think conservatives or the governing party has tended to do better in advance polls, and that would include some things like the mail-in ballot. I don't know if he's trying to extrapolate from the U.S. example where it was assumed Democrats would do much better in this. So I don't know specifically where Nick got that information. You know, what's interesting about the U.S. comparison is that led in the U.S. in the voting at the early stages of the Republicans being ahead in a lot of key areas uh with the

knowledge that the mail-in vote was still to come in and as you say it was expected to be heavily democratic but it also started off the chant of stop the voting or stop the vote count uh by the by the republicans so it would be interesting to see not suggesting anybody's going to say stop the counting but um it'd be interesting to see if that same thing plays out because it could lead a lot of commentators during the early part of the evening in you know heading down a road that might be a dangerous road to go with certain assumptions um supya any any word on the on the malin vote yeah i mean i'm also curious as to how nick was able to decipher or determine um with the degree of specificity that he did that the majority of those ballots would in fact be liberal i think it'll be interesting to see if

he ends up being right but in terms of kathleen's point of this being our first federal pandemic election, I would imagine that it would split more evenly along age demographics than it would necessarily amongst partisan demographics. So I'll be very curious to see how that how that ends up playing out. any good organizer from any party would prefer their voters, their committed voters do the advanced polls, then mail in because that is counted on E-Day. That will be counted when all the other ballots are counted. So I guess the one thing I would just draw back to your point, Peter, about the concern of pundits picking up a narrative early in the night that may in fact not be true because of, you know, either parts of the writing that are still going to come in or mail-in ballots that

are still going to come in. I mean, that's where really those of us like Supriya, like Tim and myself who have done these election night shows, it's so important to get a really good brief and have those folks on the ground that know parts of the writing so you can actually push back you know when parts of the writing are being called on certain polls because we've all seen that on election night you know a leading victory you know with three of 59 polls being counted right and if you know what polls those are you can say to the producers or to the on-air personalities wait a minute we're still waiting for that part of the writing to come in that part of the writing leans towards this party or that party so you have to know that detail that granular detail writing by writing i'll never forget uh the

referendum in 95 um the quebec referendum and there was a point in the evening uh an hour or so after the the votes had started to be counted where the uh the pati quebecois vote was higher than the federalist vote um not by a lot but nevertheless it was higher and uh there was a certain anxiety being expressed by the federalist forces about those numbers and i kept saying saying, and Jason Moskowitz kept saying, he was sitting beside me, but the West Island votes are not in yet, and when they come in, everything's going to change. And sure enough, that was the case,

and it did change dramatically to the point where the Federalist Forces won, not by a lot, but they caught up and passed the anti-Federalist Forces on that side. In Quebec circles, West Island is still used as a slur against Anglo-Montrealers. Story checks out. Wait till that West Island vote comes in. Exactly. A lot of slurring that night, as I recall, by a former premier.

But anyway. Yes, yeah, that's right. Okay. Your favorite election day story or final election weekend story or something of an anecdotal nature that we can have some fun with. Who wants to take a run at this one first? I'll go first, if you don't mind, because it's top of mind. Today happens to be the eighth anniversary of my father's death, and it involves my father and the son of the late Senator Eric Cook. And our family's always been, how should I say, politically entrepreneurial.

And my father and Senator Cook's son were doing some work for Jack Pickerskill, a name which will be familiar to everybody. And of course, Pickerskill was handpicked by Smallwood to be a federal liberal candidate in Newfoundland, in rural Newfoundland. On an election day, as Laura has it, my father and Senator Cook would drive around with a car stocked with rum in the back seat. And if you voted for Jack, you either got a bottle or a swally, depending how effective you were bringing others to the poll. I know that's a terrible thing to share in this day and age, and who would know that alcohol influenced Canadian politics? But so was the case many, many years ago. And I would dare venture to say, Peter, there's probably some other people today invoking similar, maybe they're driving around with cannabis, I don't know, or some other substance today invoking similar, say maybe they're driving around with cannabis.

I don't know, or, or some other substance, but yeah, that's a classic election day story from Newfoundland booze in the boot. Get them, go out and vote. Swally. A swally is a swally.

Swally. Swally. It's about two ounces of rum. You have that. You'll do what you're told. And God knows what else. I was, uh,

I was in the Navy in 66 and 67, and they still gave you out your daily rationer way back in those days. But it wasn't two ounces, I can tell you that. Okay, Kathleen, can you match that one? It's hard. You know, I normally am full of lots of anecdotes, but I have to admit on most election days, I'm working my butt off. So it's always this blur of exhaustion.

And so I'm trying to remember something. I think the most significant for me, I guess, going back to 2011, working with Jack Layton, I remember, you know, I was really buckled down the night before Eday um in my hotel room in toronto trying to as we just earlier discussed you know figure out speeches and all that kind of stuff and election day activities and ensuring we had coverage for the media and all that stuff and then i remember talking to all of the network news producers which is really common what pundits do to walk them through west to east all the all of the riding so we say where are we going to pick up where are we going to lose why are we going to pick up these particular seats why are we going to lose them and we walk them through each of the

338 ridings at the time it was less than that of course but but uh what we would do today but then the news broke in 2011 that osama bin laden was killed right and I was sitting there going you know you often get thrown curveballs on campaigns and we were thrown quite a few in that 2011 election but but that one was something that was really hard for me to predict where it was going to go and that shift was like I don't know like because we were on a bit of a cresting momentum and I I my stomach just sank I remember that night going how does this impact the campaign I couldn't know, like, cause we were on a bit of a cresting momentum and I, I, my stomach just sank. I remember that night going, how does this impact the campaign? I couldn't figure out how to calibrate what the impact would be.

And in fact, it wasn't that much. I think if it had happened a few days earlier, perhaps it would have the media narrative would have saturated more, but I don't know what it would have done to the campaign, but it was, I just remember it was big breaking news. And I was like, I don't know. I don't know how to handle this. This one piece. You know, I love rum would have fixed it all, Kathleen. I should have a drink, but I couldn't risk the hangover, Tim. I couldn't risk it.

I love the other part of what you said, which is the the conversations with the like senior network producers about what you're expecting, because like yourself and you know in the strategic strategic role that you played uh in campaigns through the campaign there's a lot of spin in what you what you talk to even your most trusted um news people but on by the night before that's all gone because you know you're trying to help them they're trying to be prepared to accurately reflect what's going on the next day and all the parties do it and they and they're all you know really um you know honest about their assessment of where things uh lay then in terms of the lay of the land um last a quick point with you kathleen before we move to Supriya. On that 2011 thing, did you guys have any idea that you were going to do as well as you did? What was the final total?

It was around 100, right? Yeah, 101. And no, I think I gave the CBC and CTV network producers a number that was closer to 60. I'm like, you know, 60. Which would have been a hell of a lot. To be honest with you. Yeah, yeah. I mean, we were new.

And it was that Quebec that, like in terms of I could name 12 ridings that I was sure of in Quebec, not 59, which is what I think we ended up eking out in the province. So it was just a, you know, it was a wave, which we know happened in Quebec. But you are right, Peter, that, you know, all of us as pundits and quote unquote insiders, you know,

we speak to producers, you know, every day and reporters and journalists, and we do try to spin them and make our case. But on that night before election, it is really, you know, straight talk. And it's also a different level of producer, right're so you can be more frank sometimes there's no each network would have their election network producers like a ball of folks that work election after election and and you really they know the writings each corner of the writings really in a detailed way too so you really have that straight talk at that point and um and yeah i i won't lie we we we uh we i couldn't have i couldn't have named all the ridings we won in quebec that night that's funny that really is funny uh supria this is going to be a bit of a downer um but in terms of like an election memory, I mean, the 2012 Quebec election, I remember quite

well because there was a shooting, unfortunately, wherein, you know, one man died and it was very stressful. I was studying at the time for I was in law school and I had a bunch of friends that were on the Parti Québécois campaign. I was away for a wedding and I was in law school and I had a bunch of friends that were on the Parts Québécois campaign. I was away for a wedding and I was desperately just trying to get a hold of people. And my for an entire, you know, 90 minutes until I had heard that friends of mine who I knew were going to be at, you know, Parts Québécois HQ that night celebrating the victory. It was it was it was tough and i mean at the time i was also a contributor regularly to cjd which is the you know one anglo kind of talk radio station in montreal and i know a bunch of us were like well bleep uh did any did any of what we said during this campaign trail did that contribute to this, you know, arguably unstable

person taking matters into their own hands? And I mean, that's where I think for myself, it was a real like introspection reflection moment of like, oh, what I say actually matters and on the air. And it was like a sense of maybe we need to start tamping down some of the some of the rhetoric particularly on the you know anglo-franco side as it comes to linguistic politics and you know at the time there was also the charter of values that was being um debated and it was a very intense moment in quebec politics uh but it was yeah it was it was it was rough and sorry i realize that's kind of a not the the best memory but i I mean, that's one that certainly sticks out in my mind. That was a chilling night.

It was a really chilling night. Yeah. And, you know, no matter what happens tonight, there are going to be nothing like that, God forbid, but there are going to be moments and areas to comment on that we can't even forecast at this point. We have no idea. But they may well deal with the kind of, you know,

issues that fall into that category of the kind of country we're living in because nothing exposes the feelings of the country towards itself more than what happens on a national election night. And there will be surprises you know in terms of uh of how things unfold during the evening how certain parties do or don't do and they will lead towards that kind of uh commentary and it's always best when when stuff comes out of the blue that you're you weren't prepared. You didn't think it was going to be that way. It just, you know, it encourages people to really, you know, speak their mind and be thoughtful about

the direction in which the country's going. So last quick point to each of you, how, what's your advice on how to watch this tonight? And I don't mean from a, you know, who to cheer for sense, but in terms of how to watch an election night what's the best way to do that do you think drunk i've got some rum for you cipria on its way okay well that's certainly one option anybody got another one i would say don't watch it um i mean i assume you're not asking like how to watch it in terms of tv paper radio what um although i i do have opinions

there but um i would say you know don't be shy about that i mean if you feel strongly that i mean the the the normal way for a lot of people is just turn their television on, watch those numbers at the bottom of the screen. I don't know. Well, I can tell you the worst place to watch it is if you're on a television set, as I've done for the last number of years, because, you know,

even though you're on the set and you're commenting on politics, it's really hard to get all the information you want to get at all times. So, I mean, you are texting constantly on your BlackBerry or phone or whatever, trying to get all that information in, but it's a throwback to the past BlackBerry there. But, but it's, but, you know, it's really, it's hard. So I would say, you know, I always have TVs and Twitter and newspapers and honestly, truthfully, radio is always faster than TV.

So I would always listen to radio. Radio is uh uh the best and actually I learned that trick from my friend Craig Oliver at CTV he used to listen to CBC radio and then be able to report because they were faster even sometimes than Canadian Press Wire Service it's amazing but um I but honestly some real advice for folks don't don't uh don't follow the narrative that is east west because often the east because those results are out so early in the night and the networks have to basically tap dance for you know an hour and a half i think it is before that flood of uh of numbers come in from uh ontario and quebec and and so uh don, you know, there's often a narrative that's set in that Eastern block of votes that come in. But if I were giving advice to people tonight, watch Alberta,

is this the end of fortress Alberta for the conservatives? Do we see significant pickups from the liberals and the Democrats in that province? That's going to be interesting to me. Obviously, watch for what the PPC is doing. I think that's going to be fascinating. I don't think they're going to take a seat. I hope that this is just a park vote and people actually don't vote en masse for Maxine Bernier. Then watch for the Greens, where they go. Do they actually get to hold two seats? Do they really just hold one? Is it back to the cult of Elizabeth May? Okay.

Sporia? Yeah, I'd agree with all that. I would also say that in terms of some of the other close ridings that we are expecting, that is really where I'm going to be watching the PPC vote. I've mentioned this earlier, or i guess now last week um but there are quite a few ppc signs in my writing of oakville um and it's interesting to me because this is obviously you know a weller like a upper middle class neighborhood and there's still very much that anger vote out there or that protest

vote that's out there and i think we have to understand that whatever fallout may come on election night, there is indeed a gradation of PPC supporters. We shouldn't write them all off as these anti-vax protesters that are accosting healthcare workers and patients outside of hospitals. There is something very real and an undercurrent of anger that needs to be addressed. And to be honest, I'm not sure how we go about that. But I know that in ignoring it, it's only going to make the problem.S., but I would say India as well, Brazil as well. When some of these, you know, authoritarian types or these undercurrents of anger when they're out there in the population, you allow them to fester and really bad things end up happening. All right. Quick last word to you, Tim. Yeah, I'm taking Supriya's rum. let me add some aperitifs to it i think you watch it like a buffet table um get some regional results listen to some regional courage coverage uh pay attention

in ontario that 905 that's still important and then as you say have a nap and then watch bc because that's the way this is all probably uh going to go here uh it's just really going to be fascinating to take all of this in tonight because we could have our, what would it be, fifth minority already of this 21st century, as opposed to three majorities. And we're going to have a hell of a lot more politics after that. Yeah, it's quite a century that it's turned out to be so far on minority situations. You're right, five out of seven if tonight ends up as a minority as well. Listen, it has been fascinating. Tonight will be fascinating and you guys have been fascinating throughout this campaign. I and the audience really appreciate your time and I'm sure at some point

probably not in the too distant future we'll get together again to talk about how all this is shaping up on the political landscape of the country. So thank you all. All right, then the insiders back in a moment with today's fun fact on mail-in ballots. This is the bridge with the insiders. Time, though, before we leave to remind you you're listening on Sirius XM, Channel 167, Canada Talks, or wherever your favorite podcast has been downloaded.

Here's the story on mail-in ballots. We talked about it a number of times with the insiders, and I want to make sure that you get the full facts on this. This is how votes are counted, and it's no different from other years except for the extraordinary number of mail-in ballots that are expected. Remember, every vote in a federal election is counted by hand, okay? There are no machines involved in Canada. On election night, all the votes cast that day, this day, today, will be counted, and all advance polls will be counted and all advanced polls will be counted they will also count the special ballots mailed in from canadians voting outside their riding that's canadians overseas in most

cases but also someone like a student in school in say vancouver but who lives in saint john's and votes there these are easy to count because they all come directly to Ottawa. As of last Friday night, midnight last Friday, there were about 105,000 of those kind of ballots received, a relatively small number. What won't be counted at all tonight are special ballots from people voting from their own ridings. And as of Friday midnight, there were 706,627 of those received already. That was a huge number.

So there won't be final tallies from any riding. Sorry, I had to cough there. The networks may find it very difficult to project winners in many ridings. For example, in the riding of Victoria, there were 12,000, more than 12,000 special ballots sent out. The NDP won that riding in 2019 by just 2,400 votes over the green candidate. In Yukon, there are 1,760 votes so far as of midnight Friday that won't be counted today in a riding decided by just 72 votes in 2019. The riding in Quebec, 838 mail-ins so far,

where the margin of victory last time was 215. And obviously, if the election is close in the seat count, we won't know who will form the government if a lot of seats are too close to call and a lot of mail-ins aren't yet counted. It's certainly possible that the results we see on tonight will be changed by the mail-ins. We just don't know if the mail-ins will break in the same proportion as regular votes or if one party has more mail-in voters than another. We talked about that a little bit on the insiders.

It takes a while to count the mail-ins because First Elections Canada has to make sure no one voted in person, also voted by mail. And then they have to guarantee the secrecy of the vote by separating an outer envelope with the voter's name from an inner envelope with no identification. Elections Canada says it will take about three hours to count 500 ballots in a riding. And so we should not expect any of these mail-in results

until Tuesday afternoon at the earliest. That's Eastern time. And in ridings with thousands of these ballots, it could take a few days. So, buckle up your seatbelt. If this is going to be close, this could take a while. One final reminder. I've mentioned this a few times over the last couple of weeks,

but this is the last week for this. As you know, two weeks from now, as you know, as you may know, two weeks from now, my new book, Off the Record, is coming out. It's a collection of stories, of anecdotes of my career. But they're put in such a way that they draw certain conclusions about the country, about journalism, and just kind of a sense of kind of where I'm coming from, what my past was, where and how I grew up. Now, a lot of you asked me to write a book like this over the last few years, so that's what I've done.

It comes out October 5th. Simon and Schuster are publishing it. And right now on my website, thepetermansbridge.com. Unfortunately, you have to use that the. Somebody had already taken petermansbridge.com, so I got thepetermansbridge.com. On my website, there's a little bit of a contest. If you pre-order now, you can get a special copy of the book on the pre-order, or you'll at least be put in a draw for a special copy of the book. All right. There will be 50 of those special copies made available for the draw. So you can pre-order at the

petermansbridge.com, or at least it gives you the link to pre-order with Simon & Schuster or Indigo. So don't be shy about that. All right. Tomorrow. I don't know what I'm going to do tomorrow. A lot depends on what the outcome is. I'm thinking of doing a special mini version of Good Talk with Chantel and Bruce to try and decipher what we know about the results. That'll be tomorrow. Wednesday will be Smoke, Mirrors, and the Truth. Thursday is your turn.

So watch tonight. Give me your thoughts. Write your letters. I will use excerpts somebody wrote to me the other day and said you always say excerpts you don't get the p in there excerpts there you go um that's it for this day i'm peter mansbridge this has been The Bridge with the Insiders today on eDay. Get out there and vote if you haven't already. Thanks for listening so much,

and we'll talk to you again in 24 hours.