The Bridge with Peter Mansbridge - The Janice Stein Watch List For The Summer of 2024

Episode Date: June 17, 2024

Dr Stein is back from another international security conference and she brings a list of things we should be thinking about for this summer. The obvious -- Ukraine and Gaza -- but also, terrorism, Haiti, Trump and more. Your pocket guide to the summer about to come.

And hello there, Peter Mansbridge here. You are just moments away from the latest episode of The Bridge. It's Monday, the state of the world in the summer of 2024. Janice Stein, coming right up. And hello there, Peter Mansbridge here with The Bridge for the final week before we begin our summer hiatus for the summer of 24. And what better time to try and understand where we are in this crazy world of ours in the summer of 2024. And who better to do that with than our regular Monday guest, Dr. Janice Stein from the University of Toronto's Munk School. There are so many things going on. We've tracked them every Monday for the last year with Janice.

Primarily the situation in Ukraine with the war with Russia and the situation since last October 7th in Gaza in the war between Israel and Hamas. But there are other things going on as well. And that's what we're going to try and track for you. State of the world, summer of 2024, primarily with, you know, what should we be watching for? What should we be looking for over these next couple of months? Because, you know, the world we live in, there are things happening all the time, and every once in a while something big happens, and our attention shifts towards that.

So what should we be watching for this summer? That's the focus of our conversation with Janice Stein today. And why dwell any longer? Let's get right to it. Here she is, Dr. Janice Stein. Janice, you spent a lot of time going to various international security conferences. You just got back from Italy where there was one. What was the dominant theme you took away from this latest conference?

What were they talking about? What is concerning them? Peter, the biggest concern at the top of the agenda, interestingly enough, this is a geopolitical security concern, was the rise of populism. In Europe, clearly where I was, in the United States, where they will say openly the U.S. election in November is a more significant geopolitical issue than the war in Ukraine, which is astounding to hear. Wow. Right from Europeans. They understand that we are in the middle, probably, of one of the biggest challenges to democracy and to the West.

Certainly in the last, some of them would say in the last 90 years that they faced. And if the ground shifts from under them, how do you manage the war in Ukraine? So it was the hallway conversation and a lot of the formal discussion was about the rise of the populist right and what was driving it it was it was a better conversation than we have in north america what are we doing wrong how much are we accountable for this which we don't really have um you know it was interesting um this morning I've been looking at some of the European papers, and there's a lot of talk about this. They call it a death stare that Maloney, the Italian leader,

she gave to Macron, the French leader. And it was over. Macron had brought up on the final wording of the G7 conference some of the wording around the abortion issue. And he wanted it changed to reflect a more liberal view. And she just took this visual shot at him, just staring at him. They both kind of downplayed it afterwards. But the papers and the commentators are making a lot out of it.

And basically what they're saying is what Macron, and in other words, the left, doesn't get is that things have changed. And this shift to the right is real. And they better start understanding it's real. Is that the kind of thing you're talking about? Absolutely. I think that's a correct analysis. Both parts of it, Peter. One, that there is a widespread shift, not only to the right, because just imagine thinking about macarons left. That itself is such a shift in direction. And secondly, that it's focused on a group of voters

and a large swath of voters, both in North America and in Europe, that we don't pay enough attention to. You know, it was a very interesting analysis of the forthcoming U.S. election by very, very good journalists doing this for 30 years for CNN and staff writer. And he said, look, what's the what is really driving that that bit of Trump voters that will make the difference. And it's true in Europe as well. It is young, Black and Hispanic men. And what's the issue? They don't, they feel they're poor, that they don't have as much money in their pocket

under Biden as they had under Trump. Whether that's true or not, that's how they feel. And that nobody's paying attention to them. It's very similar with the Gia Jean in France. They don't get attention. They're not in the press. Their voices aren't heard. And they feel, probably that's the best word, they feel unheard.

Nobody listens to them. So what are we saying here after this latest experience you've had, that we in the West, the sort of North American West, should be taking a closer and more serious look at what's happening in Europe to understand what may be happening here? Absolutely. Absolutely. Absolutely. If you look at the desperate roll of the dice that Macron just played,

you know, in France, he called snap legislative elections, which a president of the Fifth Republic can do in France. But why did he do that, Peter? Because his own party in European parliamentary elections. Now, let's face it, nobody takes those elections that seriously because it's the European Parliament. It's not a very powerful organization, but it's a barometer of public opinion. His party came third. And Marine Le Pen, along with a very charismatic

anti-woke right-wing prime minister, young leader, came first. And he gambled. This is something I'm going to be mesmerized by

because these are coming up in the next month. We should all watch. What a gamble. If frankly the Rassemblement National, if that wins, if the right wing wins, we will have for the first time since the Vichy regime. Just think about that. We just had just celebrated D-Day, right? For the first time since the Vichy regime, we will have a hard right prime minister of France. Not the old conservative right, but the new hard populist right

as a prime minister under Macron. Now, why did he do it? Who knows with Macron? But certainly the people around him were saying, well, he did it because if he wins and French voters pull back and say, oh my God, that's okay. But if he loses, at least they will come into government under Macron as president. And there's two and a half years for them to discredit themselves before the next presidential election.

You know, some argue that there is some historical precedent for him to do this, that in the past what the European elections have signaled, you know, after a couple of weeks or a month and a series of elections, people kind of snap back to reality. That's the way some people like to think of it uh yeah uh and and therefore he would do fine his party would do fine in in the elections uh you don't seem to be buying that well it's with the i mean this is the asset test right how Right. How. How worrying the French voters would it be to have a prime minister from Marine Le Pen's party? And effectively, you trace that back to the Vichy regime. That is the last time, you know, there are, of course, the differences.

People ask, well, is this fascism? Well, it's 21st century hard right politics. That's for sure, which are very different from normal right wing conservative politics and very similar transatlantic discussions. Peter, what's going to happen when voters go into the polling booth in the United States, right? Are they going to pull back for any number of reasons, that sliver of voters, and not vote for Trump? That's what McConnell's gambling on the left have now come together and united in a big coalition. They're not going to run against each other. I think these French elections are probably the best crystal ball we have

of whether voters are going to pull back or not. The polls as of now, but that doesn't mean anything, as you know. One poll matters. But in France, it looks like the Marine Le Pen's party will do better. Okay, let's broaden our scope here a little bit in terms of not only what you were learning, but what we should be watching for over the summer months. We're going to take a little break here from the bridge, but what should we be like? Let's divide it up. Let's talk about the Ukraine, Russia for starters. What should we be watching there?

Here's the big chapel and the big hat, as we say, coming back on the two wars, ceasefire politics, right? It is a very interesting theme that connects these two right now. And there's a great phrase. I can't remember who used it first. It's called dead cat diplomacy. What's dead cat diplomacy? All the negotiations are about making sure the other side says no first.

That's what we're seeing in both wars right now. You saw Vladimir Putin come out with a peace initiative. And when you unpacked it, oh, he's ready for a ceasefire. Let's talk. And we talked about that. You unpack it. What does it mean he extends the area of eastern europe that he controls you denazify the regime it's really hard to find a serious

concession there and that's followed three or four days later by big conference in Switzerland, 80 participants, they all sign off on the same communique. Hard to find much of a concession there. So there's maneuvering going on now between the two of them. It was clear, Peter, from the discussion with Europeans. They understand we're moving towards some sort of frozen conflict. There's no way that Ukraine can push the Russian forces out. And, you know, very sophisticated analysts from Ukraine said, fundamentally,

what you and I have been talking about, the Russians can't exploit this weakness in Ukraine before the big flow of weapons comes. They couldn't take, frankly, Akhtiva, which is what they were, you know, this town. He said, how could they go much further? So we're going to have a frozen conflict at the heart of Europe in one way or another. And Europeans, there is a language in Europe. Ukraine is not the final frontier. So even though they admit the Russians militarily can't do it, there's a deep feeling of insecurity in Europe now that was not there before.

You flip to the Middle East, we've been through how many months now of dead cat diplomacy? Right. We're still seeing it, right? Hamas says, we accept accept this except we have a long list of things and by the way the hostages will release the hostages at the end of the third phase after israeli forces are withdrawn from gaza and so they say well we accept this we said it privately to biden and it is true they did. And

Biden puts the proposal out, but they don't say it publicly because they say we're waiting for Hamas's response. This is, in fact, right, the same sort of diplomatic negotiation. It's not diplomacy to really start.

It's diplomacy to make sure the other party is held responsible for the failure. It would be wrong for me not to ask you what you make of Netanyahu's decision just today, just a few hours ago, to disband the war cabinet. I guess that was kind of expected after Benny Gantz stepped out of it. But does it make a difference at this point? Well, I think it's of course it's real negative because as long as that war cabinet existed, there was Benny Gantz and there was just under him a former chief of staff, Gari Asen Kot, whose son was killed very early on in the war.

They have been vocal critics of Netanyahu inside. They put priority, both of them, on stopping the war. And frankly, when they say stopping the war, they say agree to the terms and end a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, because say agree to the terms and end a permanent ceasefire in Gaza because that would release the hostages. That would allow the army to regroup because this is the

longest war Israel has fought since 1948. There would be an opportunity to rethink strategy and the future is the future. Nothing's permanent. Nothing's forever.

Which is not distant from what Hamas's proposal is. They're gone now. A single cabinet empowers the hardest right of the right of the right in Israel. Very similar. These are the hardest right of the right who have no interest, Peter, in any stop to war. A really interesting thing happened over the weekend, which fits this broader theme. Not even the chief of the defense staff lower down came out and said, we're going to have humanitarian pauses every day from 8 in the morning till 10 at night in the area right next to the Karen Shalom crossing. the thousand trucks that are over the border, but the aid groups are not able to get to them,

they can get to them with reasonable security that they will not be fired on. The announcement comes out. And if you just think about this choreography, the prime minister says, oh, I didn't know about that. I never approved that. There's no army in the world. Oh, I didn't know about that. I never approved that.

There's no army in the world that would make an announcement like that without going through the defense minister and the prime minister. And that's classic performance by him, right? Do it, but I don't want to own it. I don't want to take any responsibility for it because that hard right cabinet won't approve it. So as of today, is he, Netanyahu, that is, is he stronger or weaker? He's weaker. He's weaker. He's letting the hard right, the hardest of hard right, determine his decision making.

Look, there is an option for him, which is to form an act, to ditch the hard right, to take it on, and to get at least a year with a national unity government. But the politics are so poisonous, Peter. He has no confidence that, you know, the Lapidians and the Ganses would keep their word. And why would he? Because he's broken his word to them repeatedly when he's made these arrangements. That he is locked in now,

and he's mortgaged himself to the hard, hard right. It's a catastrophe. Let me ask you this question. It's funny because we've never asked this, or at least I've never asked it. If Netanyahu, in the unlikely scenario where Netanyahu says, okay, I'm done, I'm stepping down, what would happen? Well, he would be a caretaker government. He would be a caretaker prime minister for six months,

allegedly without the authority to make big decisions, so everything frozen for six months. And there would be elections. So it's not a party decision as to who would replace him like a no sir you're the prime minister who well there's two versions of stepping down right there's a version where he steps down and then the parliament dissolves itself because this is the most, I will say in undiplomatic language here, Peter, this is democracy gone wild in a parliamentary system. It is the only pure proportional representation in the world.

So it's perfect, right? In theory, and absolutely crazy in practice, because it gives representation above 5% on a proportional basis to the whole country. And later on to that, that the parliament dissolves itself. The prime minister does not. What usually happens, what has always

happened in the past, when a prime minister resigns, there's an agreement with the parliament, which would happen here because he still has a majority, that the parliament would then dissolve itself. He would be chair of or prime minister for six months

until new elections. And that would freeze any big, major decisions. Okay. Now, the only, here's the silver lining in that story. Were that to happen, the hard right would lose. It is way down in the polls. One of the parties, religious party, religious hard right party, would probably not make it past that 5% threshold.

They would be weaker. And that in a sense is the only limitation right now on the hard right. Well, you know, it's always a fascinating story, Israel, but never more so than right now. Because you see this guy, you know, still in power, going through the various political crises that he has, as well as the domestic crisis he has. And you see tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of people in the streets protesting his leadership and his rule. So it's quite something to watch, quite something. And those clouds are growing, Peter.

They're getting bigger every week. Okay. We're going bigger every week. Okay. We're going to do a good spot for a quick break, and there's lots more to talk about, and we'll get to it right after this. And welcome back. It's the Monday episode of The Bridge. That means Dr. Janice Stein from the Munk School, the University of Toronto.

Janice is just back from Italy at another one of the various international security conferences that she attends and is often a major participant at. So I want to get to some more. First of all, I've got to say, you're listening on SiriusXM, Channel 167, Canada Talks, or on your favorite podcast platform. And this is our last discussion before we take our summer hiatus.

You know, if something huge happens, we'll be back. Don't worry. But the plan is to have a little summer break time. Kate Janis, aside from the things we've already discussed, I'm assuming there must have been the odd whisper in the corridor about what's going on in the U.S. in terms of the presidential election. Talk about that. There was not the odd whisper, Peter.

It dominated the whispers. It is remarkable. The conference was two and a half days, so two evenings. A whole evening on the U.S. election, where bewildered Europeans were treated to the kind of, how does the electoral college work in the United States? And what do you mean this is going to come down to three or four states? How can that be possible in a democracy?

350 million plus that there will be 75,000 voters who will likely determine this. And then this granular focus on those three states and what is driving those few marginal voters that are going to make all the difference? You know, quite a discussion. Would it be Arab Americans in Michigan who are really upset by Biden's policy? Because Biden is probably lost on both ends of the spectrum by now. You know, he lost American, Arab Americans early on, and he's at risk now

of losing Jewish voters who don't have the kind of electoral sway because they're not concentrated in one of the big states. What comes out again and again is the cultural issues, really. Well, nobody's listening to me

that you and I just talked about that they just don't get it. Cultural issues, really. Well, nobody's listening to me. That you and I just talked about, that they just don't get it. They're not hearing me. But on top of that, that thin layer, they're not doing anything for me. And I'm in cost, the cost of eggs, that's what's showing up. The cost of eggs and gasoline. So this very, very, really

super analysis comes down to how much is a gallon of gasoline in the United States now and how much was it under Trump? And how much is a gallon of gasoline in the United States now? And how much was it under Trump? And how much is a carton of eggs? Everything else gets pushed aside, Peter. It's inflation in household living.

And he said, now, there's a Ron Brown from CNN. He said, look, there's a path to victory for Biden, but it's very narrow. Everything has to go right for Biden. Everything. That's not true for Trump right now. That's a very big difference. And then there was a remarkable discussion, which I wish everybody could be part of. What if Biden wins the electoral college by two votes? Just imagine that there is no day after, right?

Does he leave the White House? If there's core challenges, right? If you think back, you know, Biden won the last one by 60 plus electoral college votes. And look what we had after. If he were to win by two votes and there was challenge after challenge and Congress, here's the last one, and this is one to watch. Congress has to certify, as we know.

We know that from January the 6th. The rules have been tightened in some states, but not all. There's no question Trump will win more states. He will win more states. He will win more states. If Congress refuses to certify, we are in uncharted territory here. We're probably, we're what now?

Six months away from all of that. Is there concern on the part of conferences like that about the stability of the world basically if Trump wins? I mean, do they measure it in those terms as some of us tend to do and others scoff at? But at a conference like that, do they worry about that?

That was the overwhelming frame. That's why they said, look, why would we have a big panel on a U.S. election? We are a conference about geopolitical challenges because this is the single most important geopolitical event that will take place in 2024. It overwhelms anything else in terms of its significance. If the United States does not lead in Europe, in NATO, you know, Carl Bild was there, well-known to all Canadians. The inability still of Europe, even in Europe, to replace the United States.

They're doing their best on Ukraine. They understand that they now have to coordinate defense expenditures. So it's simply industrial manufacturing at a level they never had. The Europeans recognize that they need to step up. They need to do much better on industrial manufacturing. They need to be able to supply. It's not high level. They need to be able to supply shells, artillery to Ukraine.

But that's still years away. So they're prepared for this lapse in American leadership, but they're terrified, Peter, of what this would mean for them in Europe. They see themselves now on the front lines with Russia, and they have no confidence that Russia will not take advantage. Is that a pretty, I mean, you say they, is it a pretty universal feeling? Yeah.

It's a, well, Europe is now right up against Russia's borders, for good or for ill, it is. So the Nordics, the Baltics, they're deeply concerned. The former East Europeans are the most concerned. So it's a widespread feeling across Europe. And if you marry these two threats, they're interlinked. The populism in their own backyard, which is what would create this challenge in the United States, and upset completely all the assumptions about how much the United States is prepared to commit

to European security broadly, because that's what NATO is for them. It's a commitment to European security and a Russia that would certainly, this is the mildest way we can say this, with a Russia Russia, a Vladimir Putin that would be so much happier with Donald Trump rather than Joe Biden. Not so Xi Jinping, but Vladimir Putin. Tell me, explain this one to me. You've got this fear in Europe of the some parts of Europe of the swing to the right the populist movement, the impact that it can have on everything European right now. While at the same time

you've got a swing to the left going on in Britain in huge ways. Now I realize some of it's about the price of eggs, right? I mean, I get it. But still, it looks, you know, on the face of it, it looks like, okay, but yeah, but look what's happening in Britain. It's not all the same. Yeah. It's really interesting because you're right that the conservatives have fundamentally exhausted voters' beliefs that they're going to deliver on services.

And that was a big theme running through the whole meeting, Peter. Governments have to deliver on services. And that crosses left and right politics, I think, in a very important way. Labor has moved. The leadership of labor has certainly moved in Britain from the hard left or under Jeremy Corbyn, much closer to the center. So in a sense, British politics are probably more normal. Giorgia Maloney, you know, and I was in Italy, this conference was in Italy, is a really interesting example of a hard right politician

who once she became prime minister, supports Ukraine. So she made, not from any deep conviction, but because she understood that that's what she needed to do to consolidate her power, but still is an admirer of Vladimir Putin. And, you know, that stair that you talked about, that's, by the way, what unites the heart right here is this, and the best way to describe it is the language they use, anti-wokeness, anti-political correctness. Who was clobbered in these elections, which is so surprising when you think of the Greens. The Greens in Europe, you know, led the climate revolution far ahead of North America. The Greens lost 30% of their vote in the European Parliament.

We didn't talk, we haven't said much about Germany, but these are the two big engines, right, in Europe. France, where Macron is just playing highest stakes poker. We've seen any leader in the West play. And then Olaf Scholz, terrible elections for him. Terrible. His governing,

every party in his governing coalition lost seats in the European Parliament. And the AFD, which is a openly fascist party, there's no doubt about it, increased. It became the second largest party among German parties in the European Parliament. You know, you just walk away and you're shaking your head.

An openly fascist party in Germany, number two in the German delegation. French party with echoes of Wiener in the European Parliament representing France. If that doesn't convey to people this is real, this is serious, people have lost faith in government's capacity to deliver services. It's bread and butter issues on top of the you don't hear me stuff. Don't talk to me about these. Don't talk to me, especially male voters who are complaining about the price of gas. Don't talk to me about abortion. Talk to me about the price of gas, because that's what matters to me. And I'm a young man and I can't get a job.

Italians are out migrating now because there's no jobs. You know, you sent me a note the other day about one of the things that surprised you that you were hearing talked about at this conference was the T word. We haven't heard about, talked about for some time in the more traditional way, at least the traditional way that we looked at terror in the last 30 years. But there was concern around terrorism that you hadn't heard lately.

Yeah, I'm really struck by that, Peter. So these were the more professionals, you know, the people in intelligence agencies who have the daily responsibility of doing intelligence assessments and updating threats. So the professionals and across the ocean on both sides. And this is not something we've talked about in Canada, but they are in Washington. There is an elevated warning of the risk of terror attacks inside North America and inside Europe. It had been growing before the war between Hamas and Israel, but it has shot up since that war.

And interestingly enough, look, there's not a direct operational connection here. Hamas operates only in one place, in Gaza and in the West Bank, frankly. And but there's a bigger concern. It's about ISIS. It's about a strengthened ISIS that's in Europe. But also worry that there could be lone wolf attacks in North America.

We saw a big one, ISIS-K, in Russia a year ago. There's chatter. The professional word to describe this, they're picking up communications, conversations electronically of heightened activity by ISIS in all its various incarnations. And it must be at a sufficiently high level or they wouldn't have talked about it openly. I thought Trump had defeated ISIS so that it didn't exist anymore. It was all gone.

He got them all. And I thought Trump could do a deal between russia and ukraine in 24 hours too right that's right okay give me something one more thing to think about uh or to at least be watching for this summer that uh well you know this is either a good story uh or it's not a story let me me put it to you this way. I am really watching. Kenyan troops are supposed to come to Haiti. We had in Toronto last week something called a Eurasian Summit,

which is the Eurasia group sponsored by one of our big banks, Ian Bremmer. I think most people would know his name. And they're doing something which is very interesting, Peter, and I'm very glad somebody is doing this. This is their second annual Canada-US summit. A focus on the relationship between Canada and the United States, trying

to elevate Canada's profile as we move through this transition. One of my, I think, one of the senators that I have a really high regard for, Chris Coons.

He's terrific. And he's, by the way, a close friend of Biden's, but for the best of reasons, and let me just say this to our Canadian listeners, cares about Canada. So really knows Canadian issues and comes

often to Canada and does so much to raise Canada's profile in Washington. I asked him, how did you get interested in Canada? Well, he was an ice hockey player when he was in university and played in Edmonton and played in Montreal and played in Toronto. Somebody tells me that hockey doesn't matter to this country. I'm going to say, think again,

because there we have one of the most pro-Canadian senators. And there was a discussion, well, what does Canada need to do? And our foreign minister said, well, we've helped the United States and CARICOM on Haiti. Yes, to some degree, but the country that has stepped up here is Kenya. It's committed forces along with other Caribbean powers.

But those gangs that you and I have talked about in the past are now more entrenched. I think it is going to be absolutely fascinating to watch. Is any paramilitary or highly trained police force going to put their lives on the line, which is really what it would be to have to come in to that port, which is run by these gangs, and engage in an all-out firefight. That's really what it would be. It would be war for those troops to land and deploy.

That's why they haven't been there yet. If they don't, so it's in a way a bizarre thing to say. It would be a good news story if they came, because the alternative, Haiti's run by gangs for the foreseeable future that will become stronger. We will certainly keep our eye on that one this summer. That's in our backyard. Absolutely.

And a lot of Canadian connections, especially in Montreal to Haiti. So we'll want to keep watching that. Janice, thanks for this, as always. Hope you have a great summer. Hope I don't have to bother you through the summer. But the world you just described in the last 45 minutes would suggest that I'll be calling you at least a couple of times. Have a great summer, Peter, and wish all the same to our listeners. You too.

Take care. Dr. Janet Stein sets us up for the summer of 2024. There's a lot in there. You might want to listen to that one a couple of times. One quick add-on to what she was saying. She talked about the Eurasia Group Conference in Toronto last week. And Ian Bremmer, who's the kind of head, or is the head, the founding guy of the Eurasia Group.

Jerry Butts is the vice chair of Eurasia. And Jerry, of course, is part of the Moore-Butts conversations. And there will be one tomorrow, a special one tomorrow, on the relationship between politicians and the media. What do politicians really think of journalists? It's a really good conversation. And it's the More Butts conversation number 16. Also at Eurasia Group, remember Evan Solomon?

He's on the CBC, at CTV. He's involved with the Eurasia Group and, in fact, was, I think, the moderator, the facilitator of some of the discussions that took place last week. So there you go, the Canadian connection on the Eurasia Group. All right, that's going to wrap it up for this day, this edition, episode of The Bridge with Janice Stein, our Monday regular talk.

Tomorrow, as I said, More Butts Conversation number 16. Wednesday is our encore edition. Thursday is your turn and the completion of the Your Favourite Canadian Song. No more entrants, please. We cut that off last Friday. We've got lots. We'll run them all through on Thursday.

And also we'll have the random rant here with his last rant before the summer break. Friday, good talk. Chantilly Bear, Bruce Anderson. Okay, that's it for now I'm Peter Mansbridge, we'll talk to you again in about 24 hours