The Bridge with Peter Mansbridge - The U.S. Versus Germany, And Why The Rest of Us Should Be Worried.

Episode Date: May 4, 2026

After the German leader criticizes the U.S. over Iran, Donald Trump starts pulling thousands of American troops out of Germany. So what should we make of this? Dr. Janice Stein spends her regular Mond...ay commentary on that today. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 And hello there, Peter Mannsbridge here. You're just moments away from the latest episode of the bridge. It's Monday, beginning of a new week. That means Dr. Janice Stein. And this week we're talking Germany, Iran, Russia, Ukraine, lots to update on all of them. That's coming right up. And hello there. Good to talk to you.
Starting point is 00:00:32 Good to see you Monday in May. That means spring is really here. even though in some parts of the country, it still doesn't look like that. But we're going to stay positive. Spring is here, summer's just around the corner. We got a big show today. As usual, Monday means Dr. Janice Stein from the Monk School to the University of Toronto. And there are things on Dr. Stein's mind, and we're going to explore those in just a couple of minutes time.
Starting point is 00:01:08 But first of all, some housekeeping, and the main housekeeping that we do on Mondays, of course, is giving you a sense of what Thursday's question of the week is. And this week, we're actually going to use an idea that was sent in by one of our regulars, Marilyn Sewell in Paris, Ontario. Marilyn is a volunteer, and she was one of those who, celebrated National Volunteer Week in Canada just a couple of weeks ago. So she suggested, and I said, that's a good idea. Let's try this.
Starting point is 00:01:50 It's going to be really interesting, see what kind of answers we get on this. So the question is, what's your experience with volunteering? Do you volunteer? Where? Why? Or have you relied on volunteers in some way in the past or currently? So the issue is volunteering. An important part of the Canadian mosaic,
Starting point is 00:02:22 the Canadian identity. Where do you volunteer? How do you volunteer? Why do you volunteer? And do you benefit somehow from volunteers yourself? So that's what we want to hear. The normal conditions and rules apply, and that means 75 words. or fewer.
Starting point is 00:02:45 Have it in by Wednesday at 6 p.m. Eastern time. Includes your name and the location you're writing from. And you send it to the Mansbridge Podcast at gmail.com. The Mansbridge Podcast at Gmail.com. Volunteering. It's an important aspect of Canadian life. So how do you fit in on the volunteering story? Looking forward to hearing your answer.
Starting point is 00:03:13 on that. Coming up tomorrow, Tuesday, Raj and Russo, Reporter's Notebook, it's their Tuesday, tomorrow. Wednesday, we will have an end bit special. Thursday, your turn, and the random
Starting point is 00:03:29 renter and Friday, of course, is Bruce and Chantel with a good talk. I'm heading to Scotland this week, but all the shows will be in place, manage to duck around the different flight times. and so I'll be in Scotland for, well, for a few weeks and look forward to that time up in the highlands.
Starting point is 00:03:55 Okay, let's get at her. Let's talk to Dr. Janice Stein about the variety of things, starting with this issue of Germany. This is an interesting discussion. So let's get to it. now, Dr. Janice Stein from the Monk School, the University of Toronto. Here she is.
Starting point is 00:04:19 All right, Janice, there seemed to be more than a few people concerned about the decision by Trump after being he felt insulted by the German leader merits, the decision by Trump to pull 5,000 troops out of the 35,000 that the Americans have in Germany. So why is that important? Well, Germany. you know when you fly from North America, especially from Canada, and you want to go anywhere else,
Starting point is 00:04:51 you want to go to the Middle East, you want to go to Africa, you change in Frankfurt, right? And it's not only because it's the Star Alliance, is because Germany is the hub at the intersection. That's true from the United States to Peter. It's not only the U.S. Europe
Starting point is 00:05:11 that works out of, Germany. The U.S. Middle East Command has a big base in Germany and when soldiers are injured in the Middle East, they're flown to a big military hospital in Germany and the U.S. Africa Command makes use of the same facilities. So really Germany provides multiple bases. Airplanes free fuel in Germany on the way. they overfly Germany and it is a center for medical care for U.S. forces literally everywhere in Africa and the Middle East. That is a big deal. That is a huge benefit to the United States.
Starting point is 00:05:59 Well, that's clearly the logistical reason why it's such a benefit. But it's also, Germany is in many ways being seen as the wedge against Russia, right? and it's been that way since the end of the Second World War. Yeah, for sure. Beefed up and created that way. I mean, we were there. We were there for years as part of the Cold War and LAR and Bauden, both the Canadian Army and the Canadian Air Force.
Starting point is 00:06:26 We pulled out. So, you know, I mean, we decided it wasn't needed there anymore. But the Americans have stayed and they are the main wedge, right? Yeah. I think that's really important that we, Americans have 36,000 troops. That's a huge amount in today's world, as we see. But the whole point was it is just enough
Starting point is 00:06:52 so that the Russians would think twice, three times, four times, before running through 35,000 American troops. If they ever did such a thing, it would clearly bring the United States in on the ground in Europe. That's why we're in Latvia, Peter. It's the same kind of reason.
Starting point is 00:07:14 It's not the size of our deployment. It's the fact that we are willing, NATO is willing, to put forces on the ground. And that is a strong signal to anybody that if they attack, it's a tripwire. It's what we call a trip wire. If they attack, we are signaling we have stakes in the game. We're telling Russia,
Starting point is 00:07:38 We have stakes in the game, so don't even think about doing this. And it's been a very effective strategy. So was this just a straight up, you know, fit of peak on Trump's part? No. No. Or has this been in the works for a while? It's both, right? It's a straight up fit of peak.
Starting point is 00:07:57 And let's talk about the peak for one minute. Merritt went to speak to some high school students. And he probably used the phrase. most likely to get under Donald Trump's skin, which is he said Iran has humiliated the people of the United States by how good they've been negotiating with the United States. Well, if you want to get Donald Trump going, you did that with that statement, that's for sure. But the brigade that's being removed, just about 5,000, was sent to Germany after Russia invaded Ukraine. It was not there before. And there were discussions now for months that it was no longer needed and that it was going to be pulled out.
Starting point is 00:08:53 And that had nothing to do with what the chancellor said or did. it clearly accelerated their removal, but it wasn't, it works for a long time. That's why you got this pretty quiet reaction from Germany in response, but of course Trump doubled down. And he said, no, no, we're going to cut more.
Starting point is 00:09:19 We're going to pull back more. So that would be an issue. I mean, you can only draw down so much without sending a signal, right? Sure. What about Merits' original comment, though? You know, has Iran humiliated the United States? No, boy, you know, and I always say,
Starting point is 00:09:46 that's such a hard question to answer. It really made me think, you know, I always say the only person who can humiliate me is me because so many, you know what I'm saying. Sure. Right? countries have said awful things about some merit it about the United States in the past. So it has more to do with Donald Trump's reaction to that allegation than it has to do with any objective humiliation.
Starting point is 00:10:17 Well, negotiations are still going on. And it clearly is objectively true that the United States, that Donald Trump, Trump got it badly wrong when he thought this war was going to be over in three days. Vladimir Putin got it badly wrong when he thought that the invasion of Ukraine would be over in three days. Neither of them is cut and run, though, Peter. This is the longest war in Europe. Vladimir Putin doubled them. It's been an excruciating war for both of them.
Starting point is 00:10:56 and you would have thought that Donald Trump would have cut and run given the price of gas and what that will do to vote a opinion in the United States, what it's going to do to the economies of Asia? We are teetering. This goes another three weeks. We are teetering on a major recession in Asia. This is really serious. So if he were going to cut and run,
Starting point is 00:11:29 this was the moment. He hasn't done that. So how do you judge humiliation, frankly? Well, he hasn't done it, but partly because he can't find the path to cut and run. Well, Donald Trump can always find a path because he's not tethered to the facts. So he says, oh, we want a great victory.
Starting point is 00:11:54 We account the number of ships. along the naval bookships at the bottom of the ocean. You know, they don't have a very large Navy, but let's count them and count the number of sites that were destroyed. He could do that. And there was a moment when he was thinking of doing that, but he hasn't done it, frankly. Well, he can't do it as long as the Strait of Hormuz situation is as it is.
Starting point is 00:12:20 I mean, one assumes if that gets resolved and it's reopened, you'll be out of there in a flash. Well, I don't want to distract us from Germany. Yeah, right? But there are more advanced negotiations going on right now. Well, you know, Iran allegedly based on leaks. And the only reason I'm talking about it is because the leaks are from the U.S. side. And the Iranians have just made a comment.
Starting point is 00:12:57 No, no, that's not quite accurate. So then something's going on. What have they put on the table, Peter? Apparently, 15-year freeze on enrichment. Well, that would be very different from the original Obama, because it was no freeze on enrichment. And then, I'm unlimited ceiling on enrichment. only the 3.27, which doesn't get them anywhere near a nuclear weapon.
Starting point is 00:13:29 What's the dispute? Right now, the Iranian, the United States says that's on the table now before we each open the straight. And the Iranians say, no, it's not before we each open the straight. We open the straight after we have a final agreement. That's not a small difference, but clearly the goalpost has moved here. The nuclear issue is back on the table. The Iranian said taking it off, it's right back on. Well, it's back on because it's the only thing that Trump's got that he can convince the people to be on his side on.
Starting point is 00:14:10 Everybody agrees. It would be great if they didn't have nuclear weapons or didn't have the ability to create nuclear weapons. You know, he dropped all the other reasons that he initially said that he went into a room. But you know, the Iranians also have said forever, we will never give up our right to enrichment. And now they're talking about 15 years of zero enrichment. And then a very, very low ceiling on enrichment. But that would really mean their program cannot be used to break out to a nuclear weapon. But why would that deal mean any more than the deal the United States made with Iran in 2014?
Starting point is 00:14:52 Trump just tore it up. Yeah, but I'll tell you there is really a difference here, Peter, under the Obama deal, and the Obama people never denied this. They just couldn't get anymore at the time. The ceiling on enrichment expired entirely, no constraints at all after 15 years. And they were free to do what they wanted with respect to enrichment. That is a big difference between the two bills.
Starting point is 00:15:22 So were this to happen, and who knows, because it's not a small cap, but were this to happen, it would be fair to say this is a better deal than the Obama administration got. Okay. Now, who knows where tolls are in this story either, because you can reopen the straight. That's right. But you can charge a toll, right? And none of that was in place when the war started. One assumes they're going to get Iran. It's going to get something out of this other than just the end of bombing.
Starting point is 00:16:00 The big thing for them, sanctions relief. All those sanctions are going to be lifted. They are asking for reparations. The reparations are going to get changed into unfreezing their frozen assets, which is significant. and sanctions relief. And that has to matter, no matter what they say, that has to matter to these guys,
Starting point is 00:16:28 because the day the war stops, they confront an impoverished population, a middle class that is broken in Iran right now. There was a really interesting piece about Iranians, you know, walking to the cafes and to have coffee. Well, they can afford coffee, but that's all. And the reporter asked, you know, interviewed people and they said, we've given up on saving. It's so desperate that we're just going to go out and spend what we have on espresso in a cafe.
Starting point is 00:17:04 This is an impoverishment of the Iranian middle class. They know that. And they have to do something about the Iranian economy. and they can't do that. The oil frozen, the exports frozen, and no sanctions relief. So this is a hurting stalemate
Starting point is 00:17:26 for both sides. That's the rare moment where you can sometimes get a deal. But what you seem to be suggesting is the shape of the deal is on the one hand Iran gives up its desire for nuclear. Yeah. For 15 years anyway.
Starting point is 00:17:43 And the Americans pile up the other side. of the table with money. Yeah. But with Iranian money, let's just understand because that was really unfair by the Trump administration on Obama, okay?
Starting point is 00:17:58 This is Iranian money. It is Iranian assets that were frozen, Peter. And when you lift the sanctions, yes, they're going to be able export their oil and export fertilizer and other things they export. But there's no U.S.
Starting point is 00:18:16 money either under the Obama deal or here that is going to Iran. But Iran, all Iran cares about is that they get the money. Yeah. And what are we talking here? Billions of dollars, I assume. Billions of dollars. Billions of dollars. But
Starting point is 00:18:32 you know, frankly, I take that in a minute in order to shut down. And it's not shutting down the nuclear problem only for 15 years. Because it's 15 years of no enrichment if this whole and if these leaks are true
Starting point is 00:18:47 and if they can bridge the gaps. 15 years of no enrichment and then enrichment only up to under 4% good enough for medical. I said top, but not good enough for anything else. And this would all be, one assumes,
Starting point is 00:19:04 overseen by the international. Somebody would have to. I mean, somebody was doing that before Trump killed the original deal, right? The man who's running for secretary, General of the United Nations, Rafael Grossi, and the, and you know, ran the, with a lot of credibility and integrity, the International Atomic Energy Association. But all that is still to be negotiated, and that could take another year. And that's why this difference, we're only going to open the straightforward, was when the final agreement is reached.
Starting point is 00:19:39 But that's a year from now, after a very protected negotiation, that I don't, that's not, that's, that's, that's. that doesn't work for Donald Trump at all. And I don't believe it works for the Iranians either. If they get back to the table, there's creative ways to get around that. Okay. And they are, you know, they are sending messages. Let me take your advice and get back to the German question for a minute.
Starting point is 00:20:08 Yeah. Okay. As we went over and solved the Iran war. Should we be worried about, about what we're seeing happen between Germany and the United States? Well, there's two worries here. If you talk to British and French in Europe today, right? Because there's three big powers in Europe, if you don't, for the moment, count the Russians.
Starting point is 00:20:35 And what are they worried about? And they're worried about two very different things. They're worried, of course, about the United States withdrawing from Europe, withdrawing from NATO. And there's almost a sense of resignation around it now. Among the Europeans, including the Germans. They're planning for a post-US security regime for Europe. That's what you hear everywhere.
Starting point is 00:21:06 And they know there's a period of vulnerability. They need some people say, some people see 10 years and they worry that Russia will take advantage of that moment. But that's what they're planning for. So here they agree with Mark Carney. This is a rupture. They are not going back, frankly. On the other hand, they really, the British and the French, are really worried that the Germans will be the strongest military power in Europe.
Starting point is 00:21:40 and you hear that. You don't hear about it in public, but you hear it in private conversations. And that's actually what will happen. The projected German expenditures, military expenditures, literally outpaced both France and Germany. And they will become, along with Ukraine, the two strongest armies in Europe.
Starting point is 00:22:09 And that is making a lot of, people are nervous. They're asking themselves, is this what we want? And I think that's something that the United States should be asking itself too. The more sober-minded people in the United States, is this what we want, frankly. Now, the Germany of today is so far removed from the Germany of the 30s. I mean, it's the country that more than any other has looked. what it did in its past,
Starting point is 00:22:44 you know, with more honesty and integrity than any other European country examined what it did during World War II, Germany, by far. And it's got a thriving and strong democracy. But nevertheless, when you say to the British and French, well, I'll think out five years, all old, years, come right back. So this is a balance here.
Starting point is 00:23:10 And there's another country that's in the midst of that too. I mean, they're up there with Germany and Ukraine in terms of military strengths, not as much, but close. And that's Poland. Yes. And so you got the three of them. Yes. And I look, they're all, you would call, you know, Germany sits astride.
Starting point is 00:23:33 It's at the center of Europe. And this is a part of the world, Peter. Germany, Poland, Ukraine after World War I, because Ukraine was part of Russia before that. This is where the bloodiest fighting in Europe has always taken place. These are the, you know, Timothy's not a book called Borderlands, and it was a great title because that's exactly what it is where borders shifted, where the worst mass. occurs took place, where the wars of violence took place. So anybody with a sense of history has to think, what are we building here as we look forward?
Starting point is 00:24:28 You mentioned Carney a few moments ago, and it's interesting because Carney is, you know, yesterday and today. He's in Armenia. He's a meeting with European leader. and he's being invited to various other European organizations meetings. So it's kind of happening, right, in terms of Canada's involvement. Yeah. U.S. backing away, Canada backing away from the U.S.
Starting point is 00:25:00 and at least looking like it's getting much more involved with Europe than we have been. It, for short does. you know, it's really astonishing, either whether it's Europe, whether it's the Gulf, wherever you go, Mark Carney is a rock star, frankly. It's not Canada so much that's a rock star.
Starting point is 00:25:28 It is Mark Carney, who's the rock star. You know, they knew about him before because he was governor of the Bank of Canada, but even more so governor of the Bank of England and during the great financial crisis played such an outsides role
Starting point is 00:25:46 in stabilizing and building the instruments that stabilized global markets. But that speech at Davos was one of those rare speeches where it propped the mood and the anxieties of people. And so they want him
Starting point is 00:26:05 to come it's not so much that they're saying well Canada how many troops are you going to put on the ground how much are you going to increase your ground forces and you know are you staying in Lafayette of course there is that but it's more they want somebody who gave voice to the fears and the anxieties
Starting point is 00:26:27 about where this world is gone and who had in their view and I hear this all the time who had in their view the courage to call it out. Unlike, you know, you can argue he gave Redrift Merritt's permission to say what he said, right?
Starting point is 00:26:47 Because nobody else said that in. And look at King Charles. You know, King Charles came to Washington and did it with the greatest sophistication and subtlety. And describing itself as the king of Canada, you know, if you, if you, we're listening.
Starting point is 00:27:06 Sure. But he did it with sophistication. Yeah, he did it with that British class and sophistication. Absolutely. And finesse all the right lines. I mean, it was really, it was quite the performance. So impressive. I got to hand it to him because I was one of the many who was kind of upset with how the Brits,
Starting point is 00:27:28 and especially the king, was handling all this. But he, I mean, that was the moment when he said, I'm the king of Canada. Yeah. You know, people will say, he doesn't do anything unless the British government. In other words, the British Prime Minister tells him this is what you're allowed to say. On this one, I don't believe it. I believe there was a lot of Charles in that. Yes, I agree with you.
Starting point is 00:27:51 You know, he's 77. He's waited his whole life to be gay. He's not well, right? And he was never constrained, really, in what he said. now I think this was a lot of Charles and I think if you remember when Mark Carney first became Prime Minister, his first trip
Starting point is 00:28:14 was to England and yes he went to see Kier-Stormer but of course he went to see the king because any Prime Minister in the Commonwealth goes to see the king but there must have been a conversation right and I think that stayed
Starting point is 00:28:32 with the king and And so, but he did it as you know, I just said it was sophistication. Carney really went for it in Davos. It wasn't subtle. Of course, Carney's got to be careful, too, right? I mean, it's one thing to rebuild the world, order. It's another thing to rebuild Canada. I mean, the challenges are enormous that he's facing here.
Starting point is 00:28:57 And the demand will eventually come around to, where's the beef? Peter, it's not only eventually, it's May. We have a July 1st deadline for the renewal of Kuzma or USMCA. They're starting. The deadline can slip. But all these, you know, what you say as we see, this is a very thin-skinned administration. It is remarkable how thin skin they are.
Starting point is 00:29:41 You know, just again, one digression, they care about the liquor boycott. It's under their skin. They want that boycott stop now, and they believe the prime minister don't know anything about federal provincial relations or anything like that. And they think the prime minister can just wave his hands,
Starting point is 00:30:04 and get American liquor put back. You know, in provincial liquor stores. It comes up at everywhere that boycott. There's so thin skin. And they're still screwing around with the bridge. You know, they're going out. And they're just screwing around with the bridge. So all of that.
Starting point is 00:30:27 So this is probably a period where the promulmonary is going to be a little quieter. then he's been in the first quarter of the year because we're going to be right in the middle of these negotiations. All right. We're going to take our break, come back and talk about Ukraine because we haven't talked about this for a while and things are happening. So we'll do that right after this.
Starting point is 00:30:50 And welcome back. You're listening to the Monday episode of The Bridge. That means Dr. Janice Stein from the Munk School, the University of Toronto. You're listening on Series XM, Channel 167, Canada Talks, or on your favorite podcast platform. Well, Janice, you know, for a lot of reasons, the Iran war, the Gaza story, all of that.
Starting point is 00:31:19 We haven't talked much about the Ukraine war, which is still very much going on. You know, more than four years now. But there seems to be this sense, almost for the first time, the tide has changed here the Ukrainians look more confident the Russians
Starting point is 00:31:43 look more damaged and injured and wounded as a result of the enormous death rate on their side so where are we what's happening here you know numbers tell a story they never tell the whole story by the way Peter
Starting point is 00:32:01 they never do because morale is always so important your capacity to absorb pain, you know, the iron will that a population has. These are all hugely important factors in anymore, but numbers do tell the story. So fourth year of war, for the first month, literally since I think in three years, Ukraine gained back more territory than it than lost. Now, how much? 116 square kilometers.
Starting point is 00:32:40 That is not a huge amount. And that's why I say the numbers do tell a story. But they have fully blunted the Russian offensive and they've been able to push the Russians back. And they've lost fewer men, relatively speaking, than the Russians. And how are they doing this? So we are literally seeing the future. And boy, if people didn't believe that, all you have to do is just look at this war over the Gulf
Starting point is 00:33:11 where they're reenacting what's happening between Russia and Ukraine. The Ukrainians are doing it with robots and withdrawn. And we saw the first, and the Russians, by the way, it's an astonishing story about the Russians too, because they're innovating. And if you'd ask me, one country that would have trouble innovating that would be clunky, that would be lumbering,
Starting point is 00:33:40 that would be slow, I would have picked Russia. Got it wrong. So we're seeing now battles that are just drawn battles, and soldiers pull back, and the casualties are dropping. Very few are getting killed.
Starting point is 00:33:59 because the battles are being fought by drones and soldiers are flying from a distance. We actually saw the Ukrainians use robots for the first time on the battlefield. And if this goes on another year, I think we will see battles between robots because the Russians will have robots on the battlefield too. What do you mean robots?
Starting point is 00:34:23 Like literally robots? Yes, real robots. No humans. robots that they send down to the battlefield that are programmed to fire and they fire at robots on the other soft. What are we talking about? Are robots carrying rifles or robots in tanks?
Starting point is 00:34:46 Robots on a vehicle, you know, the top part of a robot. You know, sitting on something with wheels that self-drives and that can fire I know You know when I think about this it's huge in its implications right because it removes the advantage of mass it doesn't matter if you're a larger country
Starting point is 00:35:14 or a smaller country what really matters is your capacity to manufacture and put robots on the battlefield that's a huge thing and who has the better capacity there i i assume the russians have more capacity to be able to manufacture stuff but the ukrainians have have the brains of the smarts on how to develop this stuff that's right the ukrainians are always one round ahead of the russians um the russians have
Starting point is 00:35:48 innovated as i said far more quickly than i thought we're seeing something happen And this is matters to Canada up here, okay? It may sound remote. But let me tell you why it matters to Canada. How are the Ukrainians doing this? So the manufacturers, whoever is making the robots and the drones goes to the front. They're just behind the soldiers who are flying these drones at a distance. They fly the drones and the soldiers turn around,
Starting point is 00:36:24 say, hey, this worked, but this didn't work. These guys telegraph back or go back. And sometimes the next morning, and at the most, 48 hours later, they fix the problem. And the next generation of equipment, the next iteration of equipment gets to the battlefield. So they are innovating in real time. It's just constant cycle.
Starting point is 00:36:49 Why are they able to do it? because they're getting almost real-time feedback from the people who are using the equipment. Why does I say, what do I say this matters to Canada? And I think it does hugely. And I'm a minority in this argument. But I think it does hugely because we are about to spend $100 to $150 billion a year on re-arming. The prime minister's really clear about this. And if we miss that story,
Starting point is 00:37:26 that we have to connect the people who make the stuff to the people who use the stuff, shorten that distance, get the feed, let the users, whether it's, you know, submariners or people on the ground, we're using get the feedback fast. And then just iterate one little bit, get that one change made so it works better
Starting point is 00:37:50 we are not we are going to miss the mark in this that's what the Russia-Ukraine war's right and what happened in the Gulf they you know why is Zelensky which he is
Starting point is 00:38:06 the most sought after leader in the Gulf right now because in Saudi Arabia and the Emirates and Qatar when they be when they were the victims of the drone attacks by the Iranians and they exhausted their very expensive missile interceptors very quickly. Who do they call as the same goes? They called Zelensky because they had innovated drone interceptors and instead of costing a million dollars or more costs 35,000 or
Starting point is 00:38:42 50,000. That's the future battle, I mean. What's happening? So Russia's advantage, that big mass, which it always had, right, it could absorb pain. Germany got as close as
Starting point is 00:38:58 anybody ever got. Napoleon and the Germans, those of the two, went way deep into Russia, but the Russian... Right at the outskirts of Moscow. I mean, you go to Moscow now, they still got the barrier up there. That's right. Just outside. the city limits.
Starting point is 00:39:14 That's right. But that matters less when the Ukrainians can do what they're doing. And if they're going to fight with robots. Yeah, exactly. But what is happening in Moscow now? I mean, the picture you paint, I would assume that there's a degree of panic inside the Kremlin about what's going on. Well, there's certainly worry.
Starting point is 00:39:36 There's two things, right? There's worry. but that worry is medicated just a little bit because the price of oil is going up. Which is good for Russia because they'll make a lot more money now. They'll make a lot more money. So there's a sense, you know, double down, hang on when the money is going to flow into the Czech. The other thing that I understand from European diplomats that is happening in Russia, Vladimir Putin is a lot less enthusiastic about Donald Trump than he was when Donald Trump came to office.
Starting point is 00:40:15 He no longer is as optimistic that Trump is going to deliver a settlement that he likes on Ukraine. And the Europeans have really succeeded there to their credit in interposing themselves between Trump. no matter what his inclinations are and blunting whatever that relationship is about so Ukraine is no longer on the chopping block in the same way that it was. So that's why this is a moment for Ukraine.
Starting point is 00:40:52 It's doing better on the battlefield. It's getting money from the Europeans now that Orban is no longer in the picture and no longer able to block EU funding and there's less fear that we're going to see a Munich in which Ukraine is traded away. You know, someday somebody's going to write a book on these last four to five years of the Ukraine war because it's changed everything, right?
Starting point is 00:41:22 It's changed the way we look at the world. It's changed the shape of the world. It's changed the way countries fight each other. I mean, it is. It's changed everything. It's changed everything. It's a remarkable impact. It really is remarkable.
Starting point is 00:41:37 That invasion, when Russia crossed the border, right, broke apart the most fundamental assumptions that we'd all made that this was in our past and certainly in Europe that this was in our past. The prone fighting and the way the revolution in the battlefield, that changed every future war and we just had proof of it in the Gulf. And we're seeing, you know, I'm not a big fan of that for middle powers because the middle powers are so different. But we certainly are seeing Europeans and Asians and Saudi Arabia and others look at this and saying we can no longer rely. We can't rely on an American guarantee. The Russians we certainly can't rely on. and the Chinese are standing way back protecting their own interests.
Starting point is 00:42:38 And so there is an entire, and when they think about what the world will look like, they don't know the answer, but they know the old world is gone. That nostalgia that we had in the early years right after, we'll get over this and it'll all return to normal. I think that's really going, Peter. I agree.
Starting point is 00:43:01 I think it really has gone. Okay, we're out of time. Another fantastic conversation. And who knows where we'll be seven days from now, but we will be here talking on the bridge with Dr. Janice Stein. Thanks, Janice. See you, that. Dr. Janice Stein from the Monk School at the University of Toronto.
Starting point is 00:43:24 And we're all a little smarter. After that conversation, you know, as Dr. Stein always says, you don't have to agree with her. But the whole idea of listening and thinking about it yourself and going through some of these issues based on your own knowledge,
Starting point is 00:43:46 it's all great stuff for Mondays. It's our kind of like our mini university class every Monday with Dr. Stein. Great to have. Okay, as I said, that we'll wrap it up for, this day, but just the beginning of this week, as we have lots more to come, starting tomorrow, with the latest edition of Rajan Russo, the reporter's notebook, what they're hearing about
Starting point is 00:44:11 what's going on in our nation's capital. We'll have that tomorrow, right here on the bridge. I'm Peter Mansbridge. Thanks so much for listening. It's been a treat, as it always is. Talk to you again in less than 24 hours.

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