The Bridge with Peter Mansbridge - The Vaccine Experience -- Bruce Gets The Shot On Smoke, Mirrors and the Truth

Episode Date: March 17, 2021

Bruce tells us what it was like getting the Astra Zeneca shot.  And then we're joined by Benjamin Tal, the Deputy Chief Economist of CIBC World Markets for a real down to earth, easy to understand conversation about the economy and what you should know to protect your pocketbook.

Hello there, I'm Peter Mansbridge. It's Wednesday, that means Smoke, Mirrors and the Truth with Bruce Anderson coming up next. Hi, the Wednesday morning music for Smoke, Mirrors and the Truth. I'm Peter Mansbridge in Stratford, Ontario. Bruce Anderson is in Ottawa. Bruce has a smile on his face today like he's just like so healthy and robust and ready for just about anything because

he's had his vaccine. Well, I'm smiling because I love that Wednesday morning music, of course. But yes, Peter, it's great to see you. It's great to kind of have whatever it is that they put in me in me and feel like I've kind of seen the other end of this whole thing. Personally, I feel a certain amount of, I don't know, guilt isn't exactly the right word. No, it's the right word.

Guilt is the right word no it's the right word guilt is the right word you're considerably younger than i am and you've got a vaccine and i can't have one well i think you should have one so i don't feel guilty because i don't feel you shouldn't have one i don't feel i should have come before you that's just the way doug for Ford decided it should be in Ontario and and I actually paused for a minute when my doctor said you can go to this site and book an appointment now which he sent me last week I paused for a minute about whether I should do that and then I realized well if I don't do it it's not going to increase your chances of getting a vaccine so I might as well do it which I did and yeah it's so I can tell you about that experience if you tell tell tell us all about the experience what was what was it like and what was the the after vaccine life like well the first thing that I

wanted to say is that the I've been kind of thinking this was going to happen at some point for a long time now as all of us have and I wasn't really prepared for the fact that it gave me an emotional reaction to get that email back saying, you have an appointment, you can come and get a shot. I had an emotional reaction to it, which was a sort of a combination of relief and gratitude for the science and all of the other efforts that went into making this happen. And I don't know if other people have had that. It's something that I'm going to include in our research going forward. But that was the first thing that occurred to me is just feeling that sense of emotional release.

And it confirmed for me that there is an end in sight. And so that was a very powerful thing. Second thing I want to say is that because the way that this pharmacy rollout is organized in Ontario, is that there are 390, I think, pharmacies that were eligible. And so the closest one for me was in Kingston or in Sharbot Lake, which in both cases is about an hour and a half drive. And I sort of wonder why there weren't opportunities in Ottawa, but whatever the reason for that is. I then go on site and I find that I got this email from my doctor on Friday that there was an appointment available that afternoon and another one the next morning and three on the next day and five on the Monday. And I picked the Monday. And when I got there,

I actually was allowed, I was given the dose early. It took five minutes. It was perfectly professional. But there was nobody after me, which made me wonder if this is, you know, if this kind of pharmacy rollout has really got its stuff organized just yet. But that all went fine. And then I came home and I felt good all day. And then by the end of the day, I started to feel a little bit woozy. I started to feel the side effects that are widely reported, the headache, the body ache, a little bit of fever and chills. And that lasted for,

you know, not quite 48 hours, but I'm feeling great now feeling great now so in that moment when you turned around and saw nobody behind you and an empty spot you didn't say hey well we're on a phone mansbridge and they began to come over here because it's like nobody here you never thought about like a pocket full i said can i fill up my pockets with these vials? Because I've got people that can really use this. And it would make, you know, I'd be very popular if I came home with a bunch of that too. at 64 and saying that nobody over that age should be entitled to have this or should get this AstraZeneca vaccine, it seemed a little false to me. And so I'm glad that the policy has changed based on the accumulating evidence. I understand that the politicians and the regulators in

particular are trying to be careful. They're trying to protect us from making a mistake. But I couldn't help but feel there were more slots available for more people to get a dose either in the age cohort or, you know, my friend Peter's with me here and he'd like to have a little bit if he could too. You know, they, in a way, the whole AstraZeneca experience and watching what's happening in different parts of Europe, especially, has, you know, given, you know, momentum to a degree in the whole vaccine hesitancy issue, which is, you know, is a problem. As we've explained, there are those who are against vaccines, like totally the anti-vaxxers, and that's one group.

And then there's this group that's in the kind of vaccine hesitancy. They're kind of not sure. They're a little worried. They're not sure what they're hearing. And so they're pausing. And I got to tell you, when I watch, if I watch American television, I see a lot of stuff on the air trying to combat the vaccine hesitancy issue. And using a lot of, whether they're celebrities from, you know, movies or sports or politics, former presidents, you know, you've seen the list. Even, my God, even Donald Trump came out last night and said you know you should take

the vaccine which you know and then the next breath he said of course you know some people don't want to but nevertheless he actually said something finally um but here not so much and i'm wondering whether we're kind of missing the boat as a country in terms of pursuing that promotional campaign that would go up against those who are being hesitant? Well, it's a good question. It's certainly something that I've been kind of doing a little bit of work on off the side of my desk and a volunteer basis for the last several months is to looking at through our research, what's the size of vaccine hesitancy in Canada and what it would take to reduce it. And I think

the first thing I would say is that it is higher in the United States than it is here. It is more politicized in the United States than it is here. There's a very high proportion, a shocking proportion of Republicans who say that they don't want to take the vaccine. And you saw, I think, in the U.S. political side, people calling on Trump to tell his followers to take the vaccine, which I think is an important thing to do. And it's, you know, especially so since he took it himself, but didn't want to have it publicized. But here in Canada, we have about eight percent who say I'm not ever going to put this in my body they you know a lot of them think that it's a it's some sort of government scheme and that sort of thing those people are probably not ever going to take it after that though we have really two groups one is a vaccine kind of give it to me right now group and the other is a vaccine tentative group they're not

they're not that skeptical they're not that hesitant they're just kind of like i'd like to watch it in action a little bit more and this is the area where i'm concerned about some of the politics going on i i do think all of our data says that most of those people the large majority of those people peter when they hear from doctors that it's safe, when they hear mounting evidence of more millions of doses given with very few side effects and no serious side effects, a lot of that will take care of itself. The peer-to-peer influence of people saying to their family members, their friends, their neighbors, I took know, I'm happy I took it. That will matter a lot. But, you know, the other day, there was a moment, I think you may have seen this, where Premier Kennedy in Alberta said, he thought that the way he was going to deal with the AstraZeneca vaccine was that he was going to let people in the province choose which vaccine they wanted.

And he said they could choose either on the basis of moral considerations, or on what they thought was the best vaccine for them. And that's the thing that if other politicians start doing it can create more hesitancy, it can be foul the system that we're all kind of interested in seeing work together. And so I hope there's not more of that. And I hope Aaron O'Toole this weekend uses his platform to say to conservatives, take the vaccine that's available to you. Well, obviously, we're going to see what he ends up doing this weekend.

Maybe we'll chat a little bit about that tomorrow on Good Talk with Chantal Hébert. Listen, Bruce, we're going to move on here because we have another discussion that you and I had with a friend of ours, Benjamin Tal from CIBC. Because one of the issues that is supplementary to the whole pandemic is the economy. And, you know, don't run away when you hear we're going to have a discussion about the economy because this really does affect you in terms of your pocketbook. And we've got the right guy to talk about it. And we'll do that right after this. Okay, we wanted to talk about the economy. We've been thinking about this for the last few weeks and we wanted, you know, the right person

because this can be a real difficult subject because you can get lost in the weeds fast. I'm not talking about you personally. I'm talking about me. I've always had problems with discussions surrounding the economy, as important as it is. I mean, this affects our lives in so many different ways. So we wanted to have that discussion.

We decided the person we wanted to talk to, this is Bruce and I, wanted to talk to was benjamin towel who's the deputy chief economist at cibc capital markets and um he's got a lot of interesting things to say so listen up get your pen and paper handy um here's our conversation with uh benjamin towel well ben, one of the reasons we want to talk to you is you have that ability to talk in a way that most of us can understand. I mean, the economy is not an easy thing to deal with often, and the terminology can get pretty dense, and it's easy to get into the weeds. So we'll try and stay out of the weeds and ask some basic questions and hopefully you can help answer them.

Let me start with, you know, a general sense. I mean, I think last week, a lot of people got excited when those job numbers came out for Canada and they seemed to be much better than a lot of people had expected. Does that signal that perhaps we're in better shape in terms of the economy than we thought we were? The short answer is absolutely yes. You know,

in the beginning we thought that the sky is falling and now we have this almost a V-shaped recovery. And of course, a lot of it has to do with the government printing money, the Bank of Canada printing money, they are sending checks. So, of course, the economy will pick up and we see the light. People are starting to take some risks. Companies are investing, starting because they see the light. And this light is not a trend. It's a real light. The vaccination process starting very slow, but starting so better than it was.

However, however, we have to remember this recession is very different than any other recession. It's the most abnormal, asymmetrical recession in Canadian history. We have the housing market in the full V-shaped recovery. Prices are rising by 20% in a recession. Go figure why. Because all the jobs, not some, Peter, all the jobs that were lost during this recession, and we are still down, were low-paying jobs, all of them. In fact, high-paying jobs, their number went up by 350,000 positions during this crisis.

So if there was an income gap before the crisis, it is much wider now. And those people, a large segment of the population was untouched financially by this crisis. Their position is there. They are dying to go to a restaurant, but they are not willing to die doing so. So they are waiting and they are able to take advantage of flowing threats. And that's why the housing market is on fire. So you see how weird the situation is. Clearly, the story of this recession is the abnormality, the asymmetrical nature of this crisis. Benjamin, I've been looking forward to talking with you again. I think we met once before and every week I read something about numbers that fall short of expectations of

economists or exceed the expectations of economists and people I know and trust say that you're the best at giving us a sense of expectations. And so I've been wanting to ask you this one question, because in the political world that I'm more familiar with, this is also an extremely unprecedented situation. It's arguably the first real life, real time example where people have had the chance to see policy in action affecting their lives, for better or for worse. But the question in my mind, and Peter and I and Chantel talked about it a little bit last week, is that is there a bill coming due at some point? Is there a chance that there's too much stimulus that's gone on, or that we won't be able to absorb the debt that we've accumulated? What's your thought about that?

That's a very good question and a very important one. Listen, look, listen to this number. This is an amazing number. For every dollar decline in wages during this recession, the government injected $7 into the economy. $1, $7. No surprise, this is the first recession in Canadian history that income is actually rising. Not only rising, but rising very fast.

Now, many things are happening here. As I suggested, all the jobs lost were low-paying jobs, so they are getting their help. But at the same time, all the decline in spending, all of it, was among high-income Canadians. So their job is there, their money, their income is there, and they're not spending. Guess what? They are sitting on cash. They have money in their hand. Exactly.

$100 billion of excess cash sitting on the sideline looking for direction. And I had a conversation with our finance minister, and she said, what can we do to encourage them to spend that money? And I said, provide the vaccine and get out of the way. They don't need any motivation. They are motivated enough. Just give them the green light. Back to your question, what I'm saying here,

we might see a private sector stimulus coming to replace the government. However, I do believe that we are seeing a permanent increase in government spending. What I mean by that is that government spending before the crisis was about 15% of the economy. Now it's 35%. Crazy. Of course, that will go down. But when it goes down, it will go down to maybe 17, 18%. Why? Because we are already talking about a universal daycare system. That will cost money. We are talking about some elements of basic income.

That will cost money. They are making the modified EI system permanent. That will cost money. Somebody will have to pay this debt. Who is going to pay? You and me. I believe that taxes cost money. Somebody will have to pay this debt. Who is going to pay? You and me. I believe that taxes will rise. I believe, not now, maybe a year from now when we are removed from this crisis, I believe that we will see a situation in which taxes will rise. We see it in the UK already. We know that Biden is coming with a $3.1 trillion tax plan. It's coming to Canada.

So the question is what? We're already taxing big tech. That was part of the fiscal update. We are taxing options. I think what's coming is something like a capital gain tax that will rise. And maybe they will take some carbon money, put it into general purposes, and maybe, dare I say, if they're desperate, they will go after the GST. I'm not predicting they will do it.

I don't know. But we have to start thinking about it. Well, it's a pot of gold with the potential of the GST, as you know. But the difference between us and the U.S. and the U.K. is that we have the likelihood of an election much sooner than they do so any move on taxes would would likely wait until after an election which would only indicate the election it might be hurried up one of the one of the things that that has been a thread through both what you said to me and what you've just said to Bruce is this issue of the rising inequality between rich and poor.

What impact does that have? I mean, obviously on the social side, it has a huge impact, but does it have an impact on the economic side as well? Absolutely. I think a big one. I think that without even noticing, we are putting together the plumbing, the infrastructure for tomorrow's social assistance program. And that's why I believe that there is a permanent increase in government spending. I think that's the direction we are going. It was a major wake-up call for many of us to see the

gig economy not getting any support the unemployment or the employment insurance program not ensuring 40 percent of people that are unemployed it's not working and this was a wake-up call and something will change it will cost there will be higher taxes to pay for that i hope that will be the catalyst for a movement on this direction so you would just so i clear, you would prefer to see tax increases rather than simply increasing the debt to cover those costs. Is that right?

And if you had to pick your top two or three taxes that you think would be the healthiest for the longer term structure of our finances and our economy, what would those taxes be that you would recommend? Yes, I think that the issue with the debt is the following. Now it's fine. And by the way, people say, who's going to pay for that debt? Nobody, because the government never pays the debt. No, really, never. You go back in history, they never paid down the debt. It's just the debt

to GDP ratio, all kinds of nice ratios, but you never actually pay the debt like you pay your mortgage. That's not working with the government. So when people compare the government to a family, no, it's not the same. So that whole argument about you got to worry about your grandkids and you don't buy into that? What they do, what

it means, it means that as a society we are becoming much more sensitive to the risk of higher interest rates. Namely, when you assume so much debt and interest rates are low, that's fine. But when interest rates go up, then you feel the pain. That's true for individuals and it's definitely true for governments. So the risk is not that the government will not be able to finance its debt. They will be able to do so, but at the cost of something.

Namely, more money would be going towards financing the debt and less towards social programs. That's what worries me. That's the implications of debt levels. People say, oh, there will be smoke. There will be a cliff. No, there's no cliff. There's no smoke. It's not a debt in a calendar, but it will impact the ability of the economy to grow and the potential growth of the economy. And that's something that worries me. And that's why we have to be aware of that. And that's why those budget deficits cannot go forever. Now they look good, but interest rates will rise eventually.

And that's something that we have to take into account. Do you worry about inflation? I mean, you hear those in the States saying, oh, you know, there's so much money pouring in here. It's too much. It's making the economy too hot. And these are mainly Republicans saying this, but nevertheless, they are saying it and they're raising this sort of issue that we haven't really seen in the North American economy in any fashion for almost 40 years, this worry, this concern about inflation. Do you worry about that? Yes, I must tell you, I checked the Oxford Dictionary just to make sure that the word inflation is still there. It's still there.

It's in part of the English language. So we can talk about that. And I can tell you that I'm worried about inflation. I'm not extremely worried, but I think that, you know, inflation is a lagging indicator. It's like this brown spot on a banana. By the time you see it, it's too late. And you can say, oh, we'll wait until inflation comes. That's too late. So you have to predict inflation. And that's what they are trying to do. Listen, I'm telling you that there is 100 billion dollars sitting on the sideline you know looking for direction and they will be utilizing the

economy i'm telling you that the bank of canada and the fed are printing money i think we haven't seen before and the economy in the second half of the year because of all this and the 1.9 trillion dollars coming from biden we lift the economy by 5-6% in the second half of the year with the vaccine. That will be inflationary. What the Fed and the Bank of Canada are telling you, they're telling you, yes, we know, and inflation will go to 3-3.5%, especially

in the service sector, because you and I will be lining up to get our air cut. So the price of air cuts will rise. Same goes for restaurants. So inflation in the service sector will rise. And that's something that we have to take into account. However, the question is how long it will last. The Bank of Canada and the Fed are telling you it will not last more than a few months

and then everything will go back to normal. The bond market, that's why interest rates are starting to rise. That's why mortgage rates are starting to rise. I'm telling you, you know what? We are not so sure. So there is a tug of war between the bond market and the Fed and the Bank of Canada. That's a very interesting situation to be in at this point. You know, Benjamin, you may be lining up for a haircut, but some of us don't have to worry about that.

Not really. Peter, you don't have to pay very much for those haircuts. No, I sure don't. I think Cynthia can do that haircut for you. Benjamin, I want to pick up on one thing that you mentioned, which was the gig economy and really in particular young people. I'm seeing a lot of evidence in our public opinion surveys over the years of young people being a bit disillusioned with the economic table as it

sits for them. A lot of the jobs that they want to have are in big cities where housing is so expensive. They often have levels of student debt that they find hard to manage against the lifestyle that they want to have, especially if they've got expensive accommodation as well. the income bracket, we're in a lower income bracket, and you're a young person, it's hard to, coming through this pandemic, it's hard to see a positive future. And I'm kind of wondering, do you see any evidence? Do you see a risk of that? Do you sense that there's a potential for a bigger snap in terms of people saying, you know what, capitalist markets, the way that they've been structured, aren't working for us. And we need something more radical that suits our lens. And there are going to be more of them voting. What's your thinking about that? Yes, I hope we have at least two hours to discuss it because it's so

important. There are so many dimensions. Let me just start and then maybe in the future. What I'm saying is the following. First of all, from history, we know that if you take a job in a recession, the impact of this first job on your life will last 20, 30 years. Namely, you start in a very weak labor market, you compromise. And the first job is the most important job in your life because it will basically initiate your trajectory and studies showing that 20 years from now you will feel the impact in terms of your employability and your wage that's one thing the most important factor here is that when we talk about young people when we talk about low income we usually talk about uneducated people that's not the case. Listen to this. This is fascinating. Canada is the most educated country in the OECD in terms of the number of people going to universities. The most educated country. But we're also the number

one country in terms of the number of educated people that live in poverty. We simply cannot translate those degrees into jobs. The question is why? The answer, again, is two hours. But one aspect is the field of study. There is a mismatch between what people study and what the job market needs. And we have to rethink everything. We have to rethink education. Listen, the job market is changing at the speed of light. And the education system is changing at the speed of light and the education system

is behaving like nothing happened the job market of tomorrow will be the most exciting rewarding job market ever but the wall the wall that is protecting this piece of paradise is getting higher and higher and higher and our kids have to this wall, and many of them will not make it because we are failing them. We have to rethink education, and we have to do it now. And that's the number one issue facing our society when it comes to the mismatch in the labor market, because we are in a transition from the old economy to the new economy. will be some casualties we have to help them that's a really good point and as you suggest that's a subject of a larger conversation and we should have it and we will have it with you

in the in the in the days or weeks ahead um just one final question uh we talked about last week's job numbers and i guess one of the next set of numbers that will come out of some significance is going to be kind of the first quarter numbers um what what will they tell us hey well do they run the risk of throwing some of your forecasting off here some of your thoughts about the future of? You never know, of course. The numbers are the numbers. But I can tell you that the Bank of Canada, for the fourth quarter, expected GDP growth for the fourth quarter, for December, to be 4%. We got 9%.

So more than that. Then they expected the negative number for the first quarter, for the current quarter. And it seems that we will be getting like two three percent positive the january number that we got were much better than expected they were positive which means that despite despite the shutting down of the economy despite the second wave the economy managed to grow one of the reasons why and that's very important is that we can find some positives in the negative. When you compare the current situation, the second wave, maybe the

third wave, to April, May of last year, there is a big difference. One, as I suggested, people are seeing the light, so they take risk. Back then, they were not even dreaming of doing so. Second, we are much more productive. Listen, I can find the mute button in Zoom. That makes me automatically 20% more productive than last year. Manufacturing, we're able to maximize productivity with social distancing. Same goes for construction. So we learn how to live with this virus so we can get positive numbers. And then the second quarter will be a transition period. It will be a good number. And then the second quarter will be a transition period. It will be good number.

And then the second half of the year will come. And that will be really strong numbers. Assuming that we are getting vaccinated and we'll get all this money being deployed in the economy. So we are in a transition period, but the bonus that we're getting now, instead of a negative quarter, we might be getting actually a positive quarter,

which we'll take. Well, I know Peter, we're gonna wrap wrap it up but i have about 10 more questions so i do hope you'll come back and talk with us again i want to talk about immigration i want to talk about you know domestic tourism as a fix for some of the ales this summer but um thank you so much it was so good to talk with you and uh you really did kind of decode a lot of complicated stuff for us. Yeah, you sure did. You sure did. And it's been terrific, Benjamin, talking to you.

And we really appreciate your time. And as Bruce says, we will absolutely try to get you back. We'll want you back. It'll be a question of whether you'll agree to come back and talk to us. Yeah, you may not want to come back. Who are these guys? Why should I talk to them? It will be my pleasure.

It will be my pleasure and my honor. All right. Take care. Thanks, Benjamin. Okay. Bye-bye. Thank you, Benjamin. Thanks.

You know, I've been covering the economy in different ways for 50 years. And at least for the first 10, I never knew what the heck I was talking about when I was doing interviews with economists from, you know, various financial institutions. And I didn't understand the questions that I was asking. I didn't understand the answers I was getting.

You know what they say about economists, you go to two, you're going to get two very different views of the world ahead. What I love about Benny, as we call him, is that he, you know, obviously his forecasting must be pretty good or he wouldn't hold that position with CIBC World Markets, but he talks in a way that you kind of, well, not that you kind of, but that you can understand and you kind of see how the argument is shaped.

And so I've really, I really like listening to him. And as we both said, we will definitely have him back on the program in the future. Okay. uh in the future um okay let me uh look ahead for this week uh briefly thanks to bruce as well as as benjamin tell but as i look ahead tomorrow is thursday and thursdays as you know is usually a potpourri day where we kind of catch up on different things that have been happening in our world especially as it relates not always, especially as it relates, not always, but especially as it relates to the whole pandemic vaccine COVID story. So that's Thursday.

Friday is the weekend special. So this is the opportunity for your thoughts and your comments and your questions. I asked two days ago for you to send in your thoughts on the question. Um, if you've had a vaccine this summer and things are starting to open up and you have, you know, you have friends who want to have a dinner party for say 10 or 12 people. Um, and you ask, is everybody vaccinated?

And the answer is no, not everybody. Do you still go? Because keep in mind, the experts say just because you're vaccinated is not a guarantee that the virus won't pass you know by you through you on you and on to somebody else what the vaccine does is it prevents serious health issues for you. The unlikely nature of you ending up in a hospital or worse. But it doesn't prevent you from attracting the virus. So that's an interesting question.

And there have been quite a few answers already and they're mixed. So I'd like to hear from you on that issue. If you've been vaccinated, would you go to a small dinner party that included some people who had not been vaccinated? That's the question. But you can talk about anything you want.

If you have other ideas you'd like to put forward to me, then please send them along. The Mansbridge podcast at gmail them along. The Mansbridge Podcast at gmail.com. The Mansbridge Podcast at gmail.com. Also tomorrow, Good Talk,

Thursday, 5 o'clock Eastern on SiriusXM. You have to be a member of SiriusXM. And right now, you can subscribe for free

for a short period of time. But at least you get an opportunity to hear good talk, and we've had some nice reaction on that. So there you go. That's the program for this day. That's the bridge with its special smoke mirrors and the truth of Bruce Anderson tucked inside it for Wednesdays. I'm Peter Mansbridge.

Thanks so much for listening. We'll talk to you again in 24 hours.