The Bridge with Peter Mansbridge - The World According To Stein -- Launching A New Year

Episode Date: September 7, 2026

All summer I was getting mail... lots of it. Most of it starting with "Where's Janice?" Well, today the Munk Schools' founding director kicks off a new season with her views on two issues that affect ...us a lot. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 And hello there, Peter Mansbridge here. You're just moments away from the latest episode of the bridge, the first episode of a new season. Now, it is Labor Day, but it's Monday. And what do we like to do on Mondays? We like to listen to Dr. Janice Stein from the Mug School, the University of Toronto. She's coming right up.
Starting point is 00:00:29 And hello there. How was your summer? I hope it was a good one. Well, we marched right into a new season right here today. even though it's Labor Day, even though it's a holiday, we're starting with a new episode on a Monday because Mondays mean Dr. Janice Stein right here on the bridge. And she'll be with us here in just a moment.
Starting point is 00:00:54 But as we always do, on Mondays, we'd like to give you a little housekeeping in terms of the week ahead. We're really happy. We had record-breaking numbers last year for our season, and we want to keep on the same pattern of programming. So Mondays is Dr. Janice Stein. Tuesdays is either more butts or Raj Russo.
Starting point is 00:01:20 Wednesday can be any number of things. This Wednesday is going to be Keith Bogh who's going to join us to try. And, you know, Keith has been talking with us the last couple of years about Donald Trump because he covered him when he was in Washington. And he still watches him very closely. So Keith will talk to us about what we've learned about this guy since the last time we talked to Keith, which was in the spring. Thursday's your turn. I'm going to get to that question of the week for this first week.
Starting point is 00:01:54 In just a moment, Friday's Good Talk, as always, with Chantelle-A-Barre and Bruce Anderson. We did a program two weeks ago, the last of the summer specials. and it was huge. On the Fridays, we also, you know, we're on Sirius XM, we're on the podcast, and we're on YouTube. YouTube did 300,000 views for good talk.
Starting point is 00:02:20 I mean, that's huge. That's considerably more than a lot of television programs get. So we were pretty excited about that. And, of course, Thursday also means the random renter. he'll be by this Thursday and I don't know who knows what he's going to talk about this Thursday we'll find out
Starting point is 00:02:41 but the other part of Thursdays is your turn it's your chance to say something and so I was thinking you know obviously lots happened over the summer lots happened that affected Canada lots happened that affected the trade negotiations
Starting point is 00:02:57 which are well nothing's happening on them right now as a result of the last couple of weeks So what's the question? Here's what we figure would be a good question for this week, our first week back. Tell us about one thing you learned this summer. Okay, now it can be anything. Could be literal learning, like learning to swim or knowledge learning.
Starting point is 00:03:29 You figured out why the sky is blue. Or life learning. Discovering something. something about yourself or your neighborhood or your country. In fact, something you learned about, you discovered about, could be anything. But I think all those opportunities, I don't want to hear you do answer hold of them, we're just looking for the one answer. It gives you a lot of possibilities, including what's happened between Canada and the U.S.
Starting point is 00:04:06 at all could fit in there. So the normal rules, you've heard the question, 75 words or less, and that's a hard ask. You've got to be 75 words or less. Over that, we don't even consider it. So it's easy to do a count. And quite often you can make your point in a lot less than 75 words.
Starting point is 00:04:29 Got to have your answers in by Wednesday at 3 p.m. Eastern time. Okay. Wednesday 3 p.m. Eastern time. 75 words or less. You send them to the Mansbridge Podcast at gmail.com. The Mansbridge Podcast at Gmail.com. You include your name and the location you're writing from. All of those things have to happen.
Starting point is 00:05:07 Okay. So you've heard the question and you've heard the rules. Good luck. There's no promise that everything gets read on the program, but a lot of them get read. And I love reading all of them anyway, whether they make it or not. It's always a good reflection of what different parts of the country are saying and different people are saying about whatever the issues are. And that's pretty wide open. What did you learn about yourself or your country or about anything this summer? Okay, that'll do it for the little bits of information out to get out. So let's get at it. Let's have our conversation with Dr. Janice Stein. I think you'll find it, as you always do.
Starting point is 00:06:07 Interesting. Here we go. All right, Janice, not surprisingly. a lot of people have been asking, where's Janice? I need to hear, I've got to get my Janus hit, and it's been a couple of months. So let's get right at it on Canada, US, because it would seem to me that we're in a worse situation now
Starting point is 00:06:29 than we've ever been, and I'm not sure, you know, of the available doors to go through, I'm not sure which one is the one that's likely going to lead to some pathway to success for either side. how bad is it right now? I think it's very serious, Peter. I think it is bad. And I think it's a lose, lose.
Starting point is 00:06:54 The United States is going to lose too over this. In every single way it's going to lose. But finding a way back, especially for Donald Trump, is so hard. and the more he feels personally humiliated, the tougher it is for him and even for some of his team to get him back because I think some do. What do you mean by back? What's getting back for Trump?
Starting point is 00:07:32 So getting back would mean we come back to the negotiating table, all right? And we already see that despite all their denials, some of the red lines have moved here a little bit. They said, oh, no, no, no, no, no. We never talked about French language and French streaming services. Well, you know, Janice, frankly, is a truth teller. And with Janice, you actually have to listen very hard for what she doesn't say. because when she says something, she tells the truth. Yes, they did, but I also think it is true that that is not a deal breaker for them, Peter.
Starting point is 00:08:18 To put that in context, that's one issue that broke the talks down. And what's the issue? You know, well, it's the streaming services that have come into Canada. they are frankly, they'll all tell you they're Canadian companies, and I don't personally drink that Kool-Aid. Yes, they have headquarters in Toronto, but these are American companies that, you know, they're Microsoft Canada or Amazon Canada,
Starting point is 00:08:51 and they'll tell you they're Canadian, and that's officially Canadian law. But they operate as extensions. of their American mothership. So these streaming services, the argument was, change the algorithm. I have an algorithm
Starting point is 00:09:10 that when I flip open my Netflix, up comes 15% Canadian-made content. That was the issue. Well, you know, we're not the only country in the world to ask for that, Peter. The Europeans, in fact, have it. And the Americans are, pardon my sophisticated political signs, pissed off,
Starting point is 00:09:32 that the Europeans have it, but somehow the Europeans, and even the Prime Minister of Britain said, well, you know, we negotiate around it. We find our way through this. So I actually think James Greer is also telling the truth that this is not a deal breaker.
Starting point is 00:09:55 Part of the problem here, they had 72 hours to translate everything they agreed to into a written document. And that's probably not enough time. I think that one's off the table. I think the Americans will tell us again and again how important it is. And they'll kick it down the road to a cluesman negotiation that may not happen for a long time. But were the two sides to come back to the table? I think that's gone.
Starting point is 00:10:29 So what's really on the table? What's been on the table for 11 months? Aluminum, steel, and autos. That is the key here. And aluminum, and I think this is something we need to remember. We may get better than they do. And so the aluminum association in Canada, the aluminum producers, they're divided.
Starting point is 00:11:05 Some of them don't want heavier tariffs on Canadian aluminum because their inputs to other things that are made in the United States doesn't work for them. The car makers don't want it. Ford and GE and the other car automakers. So Trump has a divide. divided constituency in there. One of the things that went wrong here is that Lutnik was in three days. You know, they announced a deal. First of all, big mistake.
Starting point is 00:11:42 You never announce a deal is not a deal until it's written down. And when you're dealing with experienced negotiators, they don't do what Trump did. Right. You're very careful. And, you know, our prime minister was careful. He said, well, that's encouraging, but we have a lot of work to do. Because moving from, yeah, that's really good. I agree with you to writing down what we just agreed on is tough.
Starting point is 00:12:08 In that intervening 72 hours, Lutnik was pressured by the two aluminum companies that benefit from the protection. They've got to sort that out. That's what back is. You blow up this whole. at a time when Donald Trump is really struggling with inflation, when that is an issue. And it's going to be a huge issue in the midterm elections.
Starting point is 00:12:40 And you give Canada a deal which is just a centimeter better than you give to anybody else in the world. So everybody can walk away and say we won. That's fundamentally what this is. about it's about that and it's about trucks. See, there are times when I look at this thing, especially when you read all the various stories about why this broke down, you know, two weeks ago, you're left with the impression if they could just keep the Dulletniks.
Starting point is 00:13:16 And even the, you know, Dom LeBlanc, as nice a guy as he is, and he is a nice guy out of the room, and let the Janice Charette's and the, Jameson Greer sit there and hammer it out. I know you got a lot of time for Charette, and Greer seems like a reasonable guy. He is. He's a very, look, he,
Starting point is 00:13:40 I've had the opportunity to listen to him in private meetings, Peter. So when you hear the MAGA talk, that's in what he says, he really believes that. He's not putting it on. But he is a really professional negotiator. This is what he does. And there was a very, very respectful relationship between Janice Charette and James and Greer. And also actually with Dominic LeBlanc and Jameson, there's a good personal relationship between those three.
Starting point is 00:14:15 If you left it to those three and they had more time, I think they might have been able to work this. They didn't have more time. And Lutna came in heavy on that last day. But we also had, let me put it this way. Our embassy got more heavily involved when it became, when you get to this drafting part of the process. And they didn't have necessarily the same relationships that these three had developed.
Starting point is 00:14:54 And Doug Ford, who is, you know, the automotive sector. Let's give him this, too. There are, I think, 127,000 jobs directly in the auto sector and the auto parts. And another 375 indirectly. 500,000 jobs in Ontario. That is big, right? Sure. Sure.
Starting point is 00:15:21 Yeah. He was never happy. And that was before the things were falling apart before Lutnik was in the room. Right. And it wasn't just Ford either. It was, you know, Wob Canoe, David Eby, they had serious concerns. They did. They did.
Starting point is 00:15:40 But you could not go ahead with this deal. You know, Wob Canoe and EBE were unhappy. But I think the heavyweight here is Doug Ford. he's the Premier of Ontario. And this, look, this deal is going to have an impact, if it ever happens, on Quebec. You can't go ahead, but over the objections of the Premier of Quebec, Ontario, and Eby.
Starting point is 00:16:07 I think if Quebec and Ontario had lined up, it might have been possible to persuade Eby. But once Doug Forden, he told the Prime Minister on Friday, and he doesn't deny it, Before the evening, he said, I cannot support this deal. So going back on our side, it means getting those three premiers on board before we go back into the room and understanding what it would take to get those three back on board. Well, it's going to take concessions from somebody on both sides. On both sides.
Starting point is 00:16:51 But let me play the Canadian card because Canadians are in on this thing like 110%. Like people are really focused on. Never seen anything like this. And it's to the point. I mean, they were very happy when this thing was cratered on that Friday night. Here's my, here's my, I was going to say fear. Well, it is fear.
Starting point is 00:17:20 But here's my worry. My worry, my thought on this is that whatever the deal is that's made, it's not going to please those Canadians who are so ready to, you know, hit the wall and carry the flag and, you know, do whatever they have to do to win this trade war. But winning it is going to mean you've got to give something up. Yeah. And, you know, Carney's got a real job in his hands. They love them right now, most of them.
Starting point is 00:17:58 You know, most Canadians are fully behind. Look, he got more than 50% in each of those by-elections, you know, last week or two weeks ago, whenever it was now. Was it a big win? There was a big win. But, you know, some people are going to be upset when an if a deal is made. So there's no question about that, Peter. and that's the risk here, right? When you go out, look, we walked away from the table.
Starting point is 00:18:27 There's nobody arguing. Nobody says on either side that we did not. We could have let it go 12 o'clock at night. And then the American said, would have said the U.S. well, we didn't get anywhere. We're going to impose tariffs. And we could have said that's really too bad. you know, anytime you're ready to come back, but the deal was not there.
Starting point is 00:18:53 That's not what happened. We walked away, and the prime minister, the next morning, on Saturday morning, gave you a stinging press conference, which Canadians heard, and he mobilized, you know, he mobilized the population as he had to do.
Starting point is 00:19:10 So when you do that, I don't think we're going back quickly. No. That's, you know, that's not the strategy you use. If you can see a bridge across, you don't do that. My sense is there was a window here, Peter, before the midterms. There was a window. And what created that window?
Starting point is 00:19:38 And this is a hard one. When I say this, a Canadian is going to roll their eyes and shrug their very head in disbelief Donald Trump actually wanted a deal but he wanted one of his own terms but he did want a deal before
Starting point is 00:19:58 the midterms once those midterms are over which I think is what many people are waiting for when the midterms are over I'm less optimistic that we'll be able to get back to the table on both sides
Starting point is 00:20:14 we play it out this like if he went keeps control of the Senate and doesn't suffer catastrophic losses in those why would he go back? But I think it's worse
Starting point is 00:20:30 if he's really humiliated. He will not give it to him about business pressures or anything like that. This will be a wounded, infuriated, president. Mul Asher, and that fits his whole personality and everything we know about him,
Starting point is 00:20:54 I think it'll be much tougher to go back after them in terms. So Canadians who rightly take umbrage at the insults, I mean, you know, he's doing things to deliberately infuriate the Canadian. You name Lake Ontario. It really is. It's just so bizarre. Come on. And you put up a map, right?
Starting point is 00:21:25 I mean, that is deliberately designed to infuri and it has absolutely enraged Canadians. It makes, and I think that's a taste of what will happen if he loses the midterms. The side of the story that we're not talking enough about. how many Canadians are going to lose their jobs? Right. And so in Ontario, which is going to be very badly hit, it's small businesses.
Starting point is 00:22:02 They're going to go broke, frankly. You know, there was a story in one of the papers about somebody who painted figurines and had his two cents in the business, the business is 25 years old, he exports 80% of them to the U.S. Well, people are not going to pay 50% more. He will probably last a month or two.
Starting point is 00:22:32 And I wonder how much, you know, we're seeing this in every conflict right now. We're seeing it in the Canada-U-S-1. We're seeing in Russia, Ukraine, we're seeing it Iran-U-S. These are about, Who can absorb the pain better? Who can withstand pain longest?
Starting point is 00:22:52 And I worry about, you know, Quebec and Ontario and British Columbia when job losses start to mount. The Prime Minister is having a big investment conference in Canada because, and it'll be really interesting to hear the feedback from global investors. because a lot of global investors come to this country because they think of us as having the best access to the U.S. market, the best knowledge, the best access. That's not true any longer.
Starting point is 00:23:31 What happens, right? If we don't go back, let me put it this way. If we don't go back, we will have to triple. down on infrastructure that we need to export our energy to the rest of the world because there's huge global demand for the
Starting point is 00:23:55 resources we have. The car industry will not remain viable for a long time. We're too small in the market. So we're going to have to get serious, which we haven't yet to be blunt,
Starting point is 00:24:12 about shifting workers who are hardly trained to the defense industrial sector, but we're going to have to do it much faster, Peter, than we've done, because there really are serious consequences in our three biggest problems. The move to defense production facilities does seem to kind of fit with those auto plants that may end up being empty. Yes. Yes.
Starting point is 00:24:45 There's some very creative people. We have some very entrepreneurial Canadians in this country. And while all this was going on, a few of them said, give me one of those plants. Let me create a defense industrial campus by bringing some Canadian companies, by which I mean, grown up in this country,
Starting point is 00:25:10 headquartered, in this country. They sell into global markets. They're really good. When people tell me that we have no Canadian primes, I just say flat at that's wrong. That's just wrong. One of the world's best-based companies in this country.
Starting point is 00:25:29 That sells to everyone. There's no question we have the talent and we have the capacity, but we can't move at the pace that we're moving if we don't go back to the table. And there are some people, Peter, who are saying we don't go back until February, 2029. Yeah, this belief that Trump will be gone
Starting point is 00:25:54 and everything's going to be different. You've got to be careful on that thinking. Oh, wow. First of all, it might not be gone. The Republicans might not be gone. And finally, the Democrats, you know, they're more protectionists than Republicans, historic. They are.
Starting point is 00:26:10 They are. And one other thing, and I think sometimes we don't pay enough attention, you know, tariffs, when you put them on, their taxes on local people, right? So when we retaliate, we're taxing ourselves. So that's what we're doing. But once they're on, we call them sticky. They're tough to take off. They are so hard. Why are they so hard to take off?
Starting point is 00:26:37 First of all, they generate revenue for the government. That is a big deal in the United States. And oh, by the way, it's not a small deal in Canada either. And everybody gets hooked on that revenue and they don't want to give it up. And secondly, interest groups line up on one side of the other because some people always benefit. And then you say, I'm going to lift those tariffs. Oh, no, no, no. And they lobby.
Starting point is 00:27:04 We can't do it. And if you're looking for a good example of this, why do we still have interprovincial tariffs in Canada? Right. Despite a huge push, right? Quebec government has not yet signed a legislation that would allow alcohol from other parts of the country to be sold. In Quebec, Ontario has. Quebec hasn't. Because of local interests.
Starting point is 00:27:33 Why do we still have income tax? Remember when it was introduced, I talk as if you and I were both there at the time, but it introduced in the First World War just for the war. We'll get rid of it after the war. Right, right. That worked out well. And the GST, remember, that wasn't going to be permanent. It was to solve the deficit problem, right?
Starting point is 00:27:57 Once they're there, they're very tough. And so this is, I think, the reason I say this is so serious, this is a big, big, big question. How do we live in North America for the next 10 years, right? Do we strengthen our border? Do we double down on what we can do at home in a much more serious way than we have? Because honestly, it's been slow, and do we really get going on exporting to the rest of the world? Because we don't, Canadians will have.
Starting point is 00:28:32 They want decent jobs for their kids. And we got to take our break, but I'm glad you, you highlighted the impact this can have on a lot of small businesses. I mean, a lot of folks say, you know, in Ontario is all about auto, this and BC, it's all about lumber. But there's so much more. Absolutely. And that's the missing story here, Peter, as far as I'm concerned. And it's going to crush, you know, a way of life in parts of this country, if nothing is. done to soften this.
Starting point is 00:29:08 I just think that I do think Carney's got, I'm sure, and he realizes it, but I don't think a lot of other people do, that he's got all the, he's set expectations in a certain way. Yeah. And I don't think you can meet those expectations. They're very high, right? And the problem is the cost of meeting those expectations are very, very, very high. high. Yeah, you know, one thing I hear all the time, and I'm sure you hear it too, well, what's the
Starting point is 00:29:40 point of doing a deal with Donald Trump? You know, he'll tear it up the next day. Pencil. Yeah, yeah, pencil. That was a great phrase. Great line, but, man, it's written in pencil. How do you do, how do you go back to the table? Yeah, but, you know, the brettes, yes, they faced additional three, three-eights and two, three-twos, that's for sure. But, you know, the others, the European Union, the UK, Japan, South Korea are all managing with an agreement that's written in pencil, right? And I think it's important that we look at what others are doing. We are the most exposed to the United States of every country, and we are frankly the only one right now that has said no. and everybody respects the prime minister,
Starting point is 00:30:35 admires it, is happy that we've said no until in a town like Stratford where you live, a third of the small businesses are not there. Right. Okay, we've got to take a break. I'm going to come back on the other side, a situation that it appears increasingly dangerous. I'll talk about that right after this.
Starting point is 00:31:04 And welcome back. Welcome back to a new season of the bridge. This is show number one for this season. And of course, we're starting on a Monday. It is Labor Day. But we're starting with Dr. Janice Stein from the Monk School, the University of Toronto. You're listening on Series XM.
Starting point is 00:31:30 Channel 167. we're changing channels at some point. I better start getting the new number down there as soon as somebody tells us what it is. But Series X-M or on your favorite podcast platform, you can catch us on either one of those. Okay, here's topic number two. You know, people probably think we're going to talk about Iran. Well, Iran's kind of a part of this in a way, too. but the main headline is
Starting point is 00:32:01 I keep picking up pieces by smart commentators, good analysts, who are suggesting we're on the verge of war with Russia and I mean, when we're talking we, we're talking NATO. What do you make of that, are we? I don't think we're on the verge of an all-out war with Russia.
Starting point is 00:32:29 But I do think something's changed. So let me just go back to the start of all this when this began. And Biden was president. And he said some... You're not going to join this. It's all Biden's fault. It doesn't matter what it is. It's Biden's fault.
Starting point is 00:32:46 No, I'm not. I'm absolutely not. In fact, you know, I think on this, he did a very good job. In May, he wrote an all bad because that's how presidents make statements now. I'm not bad in the yard times. And he said, look, one inch of NATO territory, one inch is too much. You have to understand, if you stay away from NATO, we will not go after you. We will not try to remove your regime.
Starting point is 00:33:24 So he set up the deal, and he didn't use language like that. The deal was, I hate what you've done. Ukraine and I'll do what I need to do to support Ukraine to the best of my ability. But what I really care about is NATO and if an inch of territory of NATO is touched, it's no holds part. We will after you, we will go after your government and we will invoke Article 5. Now that held as long as he was present because that's what we call a credible threat. Right. And Putin and Ukraine was resupplied by Romania. You know, there were access routes across the border.
Starting point is 00:34:08 So this was probably a big base in Germany and Ramstein, where intelligence was coordinated and and shared with the Ukrainians. And then trucks would roll across. And they'd come up to the Ukrainian-Polish border or the Romanian-Ukrainian-Ukraine border and material be offloaded and put on trucks. This was completely visible to the Russians. You could see it from here. you knew exactly what was happening.
Starting point is 00:34:34 They never bombed those trucks because that was a message, right? Donald Trump comes to office and he doesn't have the same attitude toward NATO. And I don't have, you know, I think we all know he doesn't have the same article. Out of two or article five, which says if one of us is attacked, we will come to your defense. and people interpret that differently, but nevertheless, that's what it says. And if the, he says, who needs NATO? And it was unfair. And you've had a free ride.
Starting point is 00:35:17 When Putin hears that from Donald Trump, who admires Putin, by the way, Biden's commitment, Biden's red line goes away. So what have we really seen for the last year? And that's what has the Germans really upset. They are now, there's no question, Russia is interfering in Germany, in Poland, in Romania, in Romania, and drones are flying. Allegedly, they are misfired. But what happened this last week in Leipzig was a deliberate and a Germanianian. are very clear about it.
Starting point is 00:36:03 Russian drone attacked a facility in Lipson, well, it's probably not enough to invoke Article 5, and the Germans would have to do it because it's very low intensity, but it is clearly very, very different Russian behavior that we saw until Donald Trump came to office in 2026. So 27. And Europeans are very worried because it's not clear where Putin stops and who pushes back against him and how they push back.
Starting point is 00:36:45 Because they cannot count on Donald Trump to do it. So what's it going to happen here? So this is where you get, this is where, you know, when you look back at the history of war, and one of the things we know, the things can go badly wrong when the commitments you make are not believable, are not credible. And then every story starts to death,
Starting point is 00:37:16 well, he won't really do that. He won't stand up to his commitment. He won't enforce it. So you push, and you push a little further. And you approve and you go a little further. I think Putin will increase what he's doing and I think there's going to come a time when a European leader
Starting point is 00:37:41 it'll either be the prime minister of the United Kingdom or Chancellor Merits in Germany is going to say and that's when it will get dangerous. One more incident and we will respond with some kind of force because sanctions are not I mean the sanctions are in place
Starting point is 00:38:03 they're not stopping him we're on we're at the bottom rung of an escalatory ladder that's what I think the fairest way to describe and what Russia is doing now is what we call gray warfare right it stops just short
Starting point is 00:38:21 short of being open of being serious enough but the incidents are multiplying, and this last one this week in Leipzig was probably the most serious. If we're at the bottom rung, how many rungs are there? I mean, you know, I guess it's because you keep reading these warnings from once again, you know, smart people and historians and. Yeah, Margaret McMillian. Yeah, Margaret, you know, we're both big fans of Margaret.
Starting point is 00:38:54 And her piece in the last week was quite something. But you suddenly get the sense that none of this, this isn't just the normal bluster that we've witnessed for decades. This is much stronger than that. And it's incredibly worrying. And, you know, part of it, I guess, is that Putin is not exactly in full, control in Moscow these days. Yeah. And when you're a leader who likes to think that he's a strong leader, you want to show
Starting point is 00:39:33 strength, especially if you're vulnerable. You know, you just talked about two conditions, because we know the conditions on which you keep going up the ladder. We do know something from history about this. So one is if you don't believe the commitment that the other guy just made. Okay. Two, if you have decided. sent at home, right? And you mobilized public opinion that way. And Putin is probably the weakest in terms of political support that he's been for years. He just allowed, you know, a month ago, the largest opposition party, which was a token opposition party. But they're not allowed to run in the elections that they're going to have for the Duma, which tells you how vulnerable he feels. If he can't,
Starting point is 00:40:24 tolerate an opposition party, which never expressed much opposition at all. Thirdly, the economy is in much worse shape in Russia than it's been. There's inflation. He's not able to do what he could do for the first three years, which just spend. And when you spend, you inflate your way out of the trouble. Well, that's caught up with him. And there is a lot. of economic dissent and his approval ratings are very low. That is, you know, that's close to a perfect storm for him after all these years. So what do you do? You do what he's doing.
Starting point is 00:41:11 You try to deflect public containment. You do something which is escalatory. And then when the blowback comes from the Europeans, and this is what he said recently, this is just how imperialists behave. We've always known that in Russia. This is just an example of German imperialism and British imperialism. And that's what he said.
Starting point is 00:41:35 So that's when you get it. The conditions are there for Putin to escalate. That's what's so learned. And let's talk about the Germans and the Brits on the other side just for a second. You know Peter where the British are on defense, betty. Yeah. Yeah, they're spending crazy. They're spending like crazy, but there are, you know, a government,
Starting point is 00:42:03 Kirst Armour lost his government over the failure to move that money out the door and beat pace with the schedule that he had committed to. And the new Prime Minister, Burnham, is still early days, but the British have to rearm fundamentally. They had disarmed. They really have to rearm. You know, Merritt's defense pending is a big deal. But let's just talk for a second about what the conditions are like in Germany
Starting point is 00:42:39 because those are the two active leaders who are most likely to respond to Putin. Well, a big election in Germany in one of the states for the AFD is very strong. That's the right-wing party. Yeah. The alternative. No, ultra, let's just say, it's the fascist right. That's really what that party is. There's no, and to think that it is this strong that it could take control of the government.
Starting point is 00:43:13 The election was Sunday and we'll see, but he's in a weaker position, right? he's committed to increase defense spending. It hasn't happened yet. And by the way, if you go talk to polls, as I did this summer, and Hungarians and others, and you say, well, Germany is going to spend more on defense spending, there's going to, in the next five years, than the UK and France combined.
Starting point is 00:43:49 Because that's what the planet is, but five years, boy, do you get a nervous reaction for those people? Yeah. This brings back memories in Europe that scratch the surface. Those memories are still there. So your two leaders who are most disposed to stand up and say enough is enough, you do this one more time, are the two that actually have big problems at home. And the third leader who should say something but doesn't.
Starting point is 00:44:27 It's got a $40 trillion debt. It's got an armed force that, depending on who you listen to, has been depleted by the Iran War, which for all, you know, for every indication is that he's lost. Not clear yet. It's no wonder that Putin wants to flex. And one other thing, you know, just to tie the bow up here, HECF has done what Gigi Ping did.
Starting point is 00:45:03 He's decapitated his own military. You know, it's astonishing that China and the United States, two very different leaders have literally cut out the senior command. It doesn't matter, frankly, you know, what the military capability. of China is lost to all of senior commanders. I think HECSeth is on number 13, Peter. Secretary of the Army just resigned. And there's forced out.
Starting point is 00:45:31 You know, a really serious, competent guy was just forced out. So this is an military in the United States. Not only, as you just said, short on ammunition, short on inter receptors, but short on senior experienced commanders. At least China is not at war. No. America, with all that,
Starting point is 00:45:59 you've just said, and we both said, they're at war. Yeah. And anyone who's not fully aligned with them must look at that with a degree of glee. Okay, we're out of time. Okay.
Starting point is 00:46:13 There's a certain indication here that we've got lots to talk about. throughout this new season and we'll catch up on Iran next week when you're back. And I'm glad you're back and so is the audience. And I'm glad to be back and enjoy this last long weekend. Yes, exactly. We are in the final hours of it. We are.
Starting point is 00:46:37 All right, Janice, thanks for this. Talk to you again soon. And soon we'll be next Monday with Dr. Janice Stein. Another fascinating conversation. Got you thinking. And that is our goal. Every day of every week when we talk to you from here on the bridge. That's going to do it for today.
Starting point is 00:46:59 Tomorrow, Raj and Rousseau. Althea Raj, Rob Russo. We'll be with us for a reporter's notebook. But those two, if they don't know what's going on, nobody does. So I look forward to hearing from both of them. tomorrow right here on the bridge. I'm Peter Mansbridge. Thanks so much for listening.
Starting point is 00:47:20 Stay safe out there. Talk to you in 24 hours.

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