The Bridge with Peter Mansbridge - Trump/Venezuela -- Be Worried Canada, Be Very Worried

Episode Date: January 5, 2026

Trump invades Venezuela, grabs Nicolas Maduro and his wife, says he will run the country for a while, and he's going to fix the country's oil production while he's at it. Our first Monday of the new year and Dr Janice Stein is ready to talk about how worried Canada should be. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

And hello there, Peter Mansbridge here. You're just moments away from the latest episode of The Bridge, and it's the first episode of 2026. And who better to start with than Dr. Janice Stein from the Monk School of the University of Toronto after a weekend of Trump invading Venezuela and warning other countries in his hemisphere to look out that he's on the prowl. All that's coming right up.

And hello there, welcome to, welcome to another year. Welcome to another week. Welcome to another Monday. I'm Peter Mansbridge. This is The Bridge, and Monday's mean Dr. Janice Stein, and she'll be joining us in just a few moments after what was, in many ways, an incredible weekend. and one that Canada better be thinking about.

And I'm not kidding. Be worried. Be very worried. That's coming up with Dr. Janice Stein. Just a heads up for the rest of the week, as we always do. First thing Monday, we give you the question of the week. And it's not a surprise.

This question is the kind of question we ask every year at this time of year, as a new year begins. It's predictions. So the question basically is make a prediction for 2026. It can be about anything. Could be Canadian, it could be international, could be political, military, environmental, economic.

Yeah, it could even be sports. That was a tough loss for Canada last night. in junior hockey about the Olympics are coming up there's lots of things on the sports front but really what I'm hoping for is more on the political side environmental

economic military there are lots of things happening in our world I want you to think about it for a moment just don't give the automatic reply think about what your prediction wants to be for 2020 So we'll look forward to hearing that from you.

The normal rules apply. 75 words or fewer. That's the max. 75 words. You're over that. You're out. Have your replies in by 6 p.m. Eastern time on Wednesday. Include the name and the location you're running from.

And you write to The Mansbridge Podcast at gmail.com. The Manspridge Podcast at gmail.com. Looking forward to hearing and reading and seeing your replies to that question. Make a prediction for 2026. And we'll get those on Thursday, along with the Random Rantters' First Go for 2026. Tomorrow, it's our first more buts conversation. of the new year and it's on the affordability question it seems that most countries especially countries in the west have affordability issues it's kind of the number one

ranked issue as far as their citizens are concerned but nothing seems to happen can governments deal with them the affordability issue or is it built in it's just something we ought to live with. Moore and Butts will handle that question tomorrow. And that's a good one. So looking forward to that discussion. Wednesday, we'll have the first of our N-Bit specials for 2020-6. Keep in mind, Wednesdays are not automatic new programs.

They're quite often on course on Wednesdays, but this Wednesday, it will be a new episode and it will be an N-Bit special. And then Friday, of course, the first of the year for Bruce Anderson and Chantelli Bear on Good Talk. Look forward to that. All right. As I said, it was a big weekend. The United States invades Venezuela, grabs its president and the president's wife, brings them back to the U.S., indicts them on a variety of different charges.

But that's not all. It was the way they did it, the precision in which they did it, and the threats that Donald Trump attached to it as he defended his position. It's raised serious questions, serious questions for Canada to be thinking about as well. So let's get right to it. Here we go with the first episode of our Monday Dr. Janice Stein discussions. and it's an important one. So here we go.

Here she is. Dr. Janice Stein from the Monk School at the University of Toronto. Okay, Janice, obviously I want to start on Venezuela, but I want to start this way. Because after listening to Donald Trump on the weekend, explain why he did what he did, how he justifies it,

and what he thinks it will mean in the short term and the long term, I guess, as well. I'm left with this question. How worried should Canada be? Because to me, it's be worried, Canada, be very, very worried. Do you want to join me on the ledge here, or do you want to pull me off the ledge? No, no, I'm going to join you on the ledge up here. This was naked, brutal, raw assertion of American power in the Western Hemisphere.

We just thought what happened in Venezuela for the moment. It's what he said after. And not only during his press conference, there was a tweet on Sunday on something called Trump Foreign, in which she said, boy, look what happened on Friday. We can do that to any country in the world. and nobody can stop us. And I think that's, I think, two lines,

that's where he is right now with a special focus is on his own backyard, and we're there. We live right next door in his backyard to a president who thinks he can do this to anyone and no one can stop. The scary part is he's partially right about

their capabilities. I mean, when you look at it as a straight military operation what they did in the weekend now, I know you tend to find out things after the fact that didn't go quite as well as they suggest they did, but it appears on the initial observations that this was basically a brilliant military operation. You know, executed with utter precision.

I mean, in many ways, just to stop over for them, first of all, in the intelligence, right? They obviously have had agents inside Venezuela for months now reporting, giving them the most granular intelligence of where he is, when, where he goes. And then when they made the decision to go that night, they turned out the lights in Caracas. I just stopped over that one.

The whole city goes to ARCA at 1.30 in the morning, and there aren't major people around monitoring to say to him, get out, something's going down. It's absolutely astonishing the whole story, Peter. There are very few militaries in the world that, you know, and this is accommodation of fantastic intelligence and great special operations. forces. Yes. There's no doubt about that. They're, you know, they continually prove how, you know, funding the special ops groups like they've done. And quite frankly, like Canada has done with special ops groups. So, you know,

they have not been the ones who suffered through budget cuts over the last 20 years. But the Americans prove time and again that on that front, they are very, very good. But let's leave that. aside. Let me get back to this. I don't want to leave it a second too long because the takeaway for everybody in that region is, oh my God, they could do that to me. Exactly. I mean, he basically even said that to Mexico. Yeah. You know, be aware. You know, we could do this. You could be next. You never mentioned Canada, but, you know, it's implicit. And Greenland, Canada, Mexico, you name it. But let me get back to my opening line,

which is be worried, Canada, be very, very worried. Is there any evidence that we are worried? That we are, you know, I don't know how you prepare for something like that. But are we looking at, are you aware that we are more prepared than we have been in the past, that we are at least looking at the possibilities that could confront us?

The answer to that is yes. There's no question that we are and that our national security and our military are spending time and effort, Peter, gaming out all kinds of scenarios. And they've been doing that for the last six months, frankly and you know they were met with a certain amount of derision

when it became known that they were doing that and people said well you're wasting resources this is Canada this will never happen but I think they were absolutely right to do it I thought they were right to do it when I first heard about it because it's not so much that the U.S. Army is going to cross our border but there's a whole series of unconventional ways the United States could cause a lot of trouble for us and I think it's really important that we devote the time and the resources to gaming those out and we are do to answer the question you didn't ask a little more specifically have we gained out whether we think it's possible that the United States would

swoop in a grab and snatch of a prime minister? No I think because Maduro, for everything we just said, Maduro is in a special category, right? There's been

an indictment against him for five years. Everybody tried everything to get this guy out and failed. Every diplomatic process, all kinds of economic sanctions. So the attack You know, the attraction of Maduro doesn't come out of nowhere.

There is a background here of an authoritarian who stole an election. There is a big distance between Maduro and any prime minister of campus. Yeah, no, I listen, obviously, I agree with that. This is a bad guy, and his time was due. But let's not kid ourselves. that's not why this happened. No. You know,

I can think of many reasons this happened before coming to that one. Yeah. You know, even write down to who's talking about Epstein this weekend. Nobody, right? You know, it's a classic, you know,

look over here at this. But in terms of Venezuela, there's, you know, there's oil. And he made no bones about that. He talked about oil and about how they're going to,

sending American companies to fix their oil thing. Like, really? Like, what American company would want to do that? What's the endgame for them? Well, so unrealistic, Peter, I mean, just to stop over that because this was naked imperialism. We're going for your oil. You know, didn't cover it up outright.

But it was the most unrealistic set of statements. You know, Venezuela now pumps a million barrels a day of oil down from five, six or seven years ago. Infrastructure's degraded. Nobody's invested. Chevron is the only U.S. oil company that managed to operate through all of this. They have to put billions of dollars into infrastructure into rebuilding. And it will take a decade long past the time when Trump is president.

Look what happened in Iraq. Iraq is just now. talking two decades, Iraq is just now in the position where it's beginning to reach free invasion levels of exports. So to sell this as we want energy and we're going to get paid back when he says for the money they stole from us, he means when the oil company assets were taken over when they were expelled from Venezuela. He will not see it. And nor, will anybody else during his presidency? It makes no sense. What about the spheres of influence argument that you've made on this program before,

but was being made again over the weekend? I mean, I saw David Sanger from New York Times writing and talking about it. Basically, Trump's idea is to divide the world into three spheres. China, Russia, and America. And America gets the Western Hemisphere, North and South and Central America. Well, Peter, you know, I think that that's how he thinks about the world. He, and this just goes back to the 19th century. And that's one of the reasons why beyond Venezuela and beyond international law

and beyond consulting with Congress and all the other things that are willing, the Americans. This is such a bad story because he's just given Shishie Pink of Vladimir Putin a green light. What's to stop Vladimir Putin from doing an extraction of Vladimir Zelensky from Ukraine? What's the United States say? And the ironic, of course, because that's what he wanted to do in the first week. He wanted to grab Solansky and pull them out and they couldn't make it happen. That's right. Now he could look at it all over again in a different way because what's the argument going to be against?

You can't. You can't say. You know, Trump would not be able to say. The United States would not be able to say or do anything. And Taiwan, this is right in China's back to Iran. And he's just made this legitimate. Well, is it a fair comparison? I ask is obviously you can pull Maduro

out because he was a crook indicted and we you know the Americans bring him back the way they brought Noriega back from Panama right whatever it was 30 35 years ago it's hard to say Zelensky unless you can time to the corruption

scandal well Vladimir Putin wouldn't say that Vladimir Putin said from the beginning that Zelensky is a threat to Russia because they're not saying it's just the argument that he made, and he's defined him as an existential threat to Russia. And this is what his fears have influenced Dr. Nis.

Who's the threat? Can big powers decide? How they handle the threat? They decide. And nobody interferes with them in their back of the woods. And same goes for Taiwan as far as China's concerned. Yeah. So imagine, you know, the present of Taiwan drives.

is an asthma to Shishi Ping, in part because he has said over and over again we do not want to be reunified with China. And he skirted it very close at times to discussion of independence.

Well, Shishi Ping says that's a mortal threat to Chinese unity. That's a mortal threat. And we're going to blockade the strace of Toronto, which they can easily, the the foremost straits we're going to blockade

in which he can easily do and you tell me what Donald Trump says after doing this and after and going beyond you know what he did he's talked about the other

governments in Latin America or not crooks President of Columbia is not a crook Claudia Shinebaum is not a crook but he's at turn so how do we explain then or how do you explain the muted rather muted response from europe from Canada fear fear um no I'm the prime minister of Canada and just changed ambassadors in

Washington because I know that the renegotiation of Kuzma's coming up was probably no negotiation more important to the future of this country in terms of the impact on our economy and I have to negotiate with Donald Trump and the White House. I'm going to be careful and that's exactly going to as he was careful. He talked about the fact that he's in much more elegant language than Maduro was a bad guy and then said look Canada supports international law and a democratic transition so he put it in language that was least qualified to infuriate Donald Trump

Macron is running a process right now in Paris our prime minister is there will be there on Tuesday to design security guarantees for Ukraine sure Europe is careful so you know my colleague Timothy Snyder

talk about anticipatory compliance, right? You comply in advance because you're afraid, and you actually empower the tyrant. You bring it about because you're so hesitant to challenge. So how does this play out then, do you think? Well, I'm really pessimistic about the blank check he's just given Putin and he wrote it. You know, how it plays out is the big unanswered question that we're left with after the weekend. So what's coming out of Washington right now, Peter, is, first of all, you're going to be surprised to hear.

confusion at the top. And there's two versions of the story. One, they are leaning very hard on the vice president of Venezuela, Delciba Regis, who was sworn in as the interim president, but then said to them, no, no, I'm sorry, Maduro is the only legitimate president. And Trump said, she better smarten up because either she cooperates with us and we'll do the same thing to her.

So that's the kind of tone that's coming. And that would suggest no transition, frankly. You get the dictator and you take out the dictator, but you leave the dictatorship in place and they work with you because they're afraid of the consequences, which is the worst. outcome, I think, for everybody. The worst outcome for Venezuelans, the worst outcome for everybody that lives in the

neighborhood. And they achieve their objectives with no costs. And Rubio essentially agreed, and let's distinguish Rubio from Trump. But Rubio grounded, at least, lives in the world and understands, but on the other And he's the driver of this. She's the one who really wants this. And it's not about the wealth for him. It's about Cuba.

Right. Which is, you know, that's his parents' whole life, whole experience. And he's really relentless on the subject. So this is the first step on the way. Because, you know, Venezuela was sold a chunk of the oil it had to Cuba. and so this is a big problem for Cuba now. And for Rubio, there's a plan B. What happens if she won't cooperate, frankly?

Well, there's two versions. A bad story and a slightly better story. The bad story is that they do this again. Because none of us know Peter what they left behind in Venezuela, how many military assets are on the ground now? Maybe they don't know, right? I assume there are some

that are left that they feel that they can use if they need to use. The picture came out of Venice with, over the weekend, with Rodriguez and the Attorney General, who's a hardliner,

and the two generals, they were stonefinery. those people stunned but stone faced they don't know how many CIA assets have infiltrated their structures

they don't know what US military assets are on ground there so they are going to have to make a decision about how long and how much they will play ball with the Trump administration what risks are willing to run

that's the bad story frankly and that could go on for several weeks the better story and there is how hopeful are we about this but there is a better story here is that machado the Nobel Peace Prize winner who didn't run herself in the election because she was not permitted to but she nominated Gonzalez to win and he won by something like 60% of the road. And there's documented ballots. She's not just making the claim. She's now working

the phones in Latin America, in Europe, and in Canada. Asking, let's lose the word international community anymore because it doesn't exist. But that's where the greatest support would be. Why did Trump trash her so badly? You know, for him, I had to see this. That wasn't bad. He said she's a nice lady, which is, you saw how that sounds right to me. She's a nice lady, but she doesn't have the power because she actually stuck her neck way out and supported Trump as he tightened the noose around the general. But there is a scenario where if it doesn't go well,

and enough Latin Americans push hard and we push and the Europeans push that they could allow her to go back and her safety would have to be guaranteed by the government said he's in place and there would be elections. Now, that's about the most optimistic. scenario of the paint because in that whole hour

that was an hour long press conference and he'd been up all night so you could see he was struggling to stay awake and he he was struggling to pay attention but not once did anybody

in that room out of the word democracy or transition or election absolutely astonishing yeah you know I you know I was I'm still focused on

on Canada and how worried we should be I mean I was worried before this happened yeah I'm much more so worried now if you if you had to say

he did this because of you know a B or C what's your A Is it all about oil? I think for Donald Trump it's all about oil and real estate because that's how he thinks about the world

which is not a good story for us and he did say we need energy right we need secure supplies of energy for Rubio it's not it's about Cuba and Venezuela and he did mention Greenland also

this again. He did not. Yes. Yep. So and that's about, you know, that's about the things that we have as well. We have oil. We have gas. We have critical minerals. Lots of them.

We have water, which they desperately need in the United States access to fresh water. Those are really, really important. so I think we have every reason to be worried frankly do you think we're you know I'm encouraged to hear you say and I've had some indication of this as well there there there is at least some stuff going on in the background and being trying to prepare ourselves but the fact that it's it's not very much of a public issue that's debated openly in the country about our security.

You know, there's been some of it simply trade-related, but this is much more than that. It is. It is. So let me say this, Peter. Look, I would not expect our National, Minister of National Defense, to talk openly with Canadians about what we're doing.

to protect ourselves. But I do think that the Canadian public has to understand that a reinvestment in this country in our own sovereign capabilities is an absolute must for this country right now. It is absolutely imperative. People have to get over if they have them, attitudes toward military spending

that they may have developed over the last 25 or 30 years and understand that the world has changed. And Canada has to have the, and I use the word sovereign capability. So I'm one of the loudest forces in arguing that we have to invest in Canadian companies that are making smart, advanced technologies. We have these in this country. And it's imperative that our government go out of its way to invest in Canadian companies

and develop capacity in Canada. And a thriving, we can do with a thriving ecosystem of companies that make technology that we would need, that we could also sell into global markets, but that this country would need. Okay. We're going to have to talk about this issue. more in the in the weeks ahead but yeah that'll do it for for this one but take a break come back I won't talk about Iran because it's it's a huge story that's potentially happening there as well let's get to that right after this and welcome back you're listening to

the bridge the Monday episode first Monday of the 226 for the bridge and it's a Dr. Janice Stein Monday. Dr. Stein from the Mug School, the University of Toronto. We're talking about all things international and specifically a couple of them right today, the Venezuela episode over the weekend. And also what's happening in Iran. So I want to talk about this because for a number of times over the last 20 years, we've seen uprisings in Iran.

and it seemed, you know, boy, they could topple the regime that came in in 79 after the Shah was disposed. It's never happened. More demonstrations of light, some big ones, some significant ones. So the question arises again, could this lead to something? I mean, the supreme leader in Iran is, what, 85 years old, has been a, has, been around for like almost since 79. It came in after the Ayatollahomania, right?

And not well. Not well. Not well. The prime minister of Iran actually shows some promise. He's not of the old guard. He's a doctor, I think, and seems more moderate. I was going to say more liberal, but I think moderate compared with what's being there is probably a better description. So where are we on the Iran story?

Could something be happening here that actually will lead to a different kind of relationship between Iran and the rest of the world? Let me just tell you that I asked the same question of two colleagues in State Department in the last 24 hours and they came back and said, look, it's impossible to call these things. Well, okay, I agree. But my intuition, this time it is a little different. You know, we always say each time is different,

and it turns out not to be the case. But I think it is different for two reasons, Peter. The first is the other demonstrations that we've seen over the years, and we've seen four or five big rounds, and this is now in 22 of the 30. two provinces, so it's across the country, really. The other ones have been about rights

about women wearing Asia, about elections that were not fair. This demonstration's not about that. This demonstration is about an inflation rate of 45%. You know,

a U.S. dollar is worth one million 400,000 reels, the Iranian currency. You have to take a wheelbarrow. You know, it reminds me of the 30s in Germany, the Rai Mara Republic

where you took wheelbarrows to the grocery store. There's a drought in Iran, so there are water shortages. This goes way beyond any particular segment of the population. This is a country that whose economy is frankly

imploding and the basics aren't there is the middle class is being ruined in Iran by inflation

so there's a broader mass of anger of this government now than in any of the prior episodes the second reason feels different to me is because they're present

and possessing is saying things that no moderate present was ever said before. The comment that really struck me he made it on Thursday was when he said, don't blame the Americans

for this. This is not their fault. This is on us. We are accountable and we know you're suffering and we have to do something about it and we have to speak to the protesters. Well,

no presence ever talked like that. No president had enough room from the supreme leader to come out and say things like that now yesterday he finally spoke out how many and he said well you know we have to listen to people have legitimate grievances over the economy but protesters we have to crack down we have to make sure they tow the line and so that's a signal that there's not unlimited space for people to push the envelope I think there is a loss of confidence inside the government. It's compounded by the war, by the fact that their nuclear installations were badly damaged,

that they, too, by the way, are infiltrated by Israeli intelligence to an unimaginable degree, which makes you, you know, you're looking over your shoulder all the time. You don't know who you can talk to. and who you can't, and by the terrible, terrible performance of the economy. You know, we know only one thing from studying authoritarian regimes. They seem immovable until in an instant they're not. And what changes always is the regime itself internally loses confidence because of weakness, which they're seeing in the Iranian economy,

or because of divides. Now, does anything I said change the fact that they have a repressive set of forces, paramilitary forces, the besiege, which come out on motorcycles and have no compunction, you know, and mowing people down, and the Republican guards will shoot a crowd? That's still true. But to me, this is the most serious crisis that this regime has faced in all these years. Trump is, you know, Trump is claiming that if they start going out there and mowing down protesters, the Americans will intervene, which I'm glad he's saying, whether he means it or not, you know, let's hope we don't have to find out. But it does lead to the question of to change things.

in Iran, given what we know about the situation now, would it take a revolution or kind of be done internally by, you know, corner minds working out a solution? What has that happen for it to be done internally and the best way to do it is always internally? Because when it's something outside, it's usually violent and the foreign forces become, you know, you rally against their presses. So what has to happen is for the Republican guards themselves to crack. They have to lose confidence. They have to splinter.

You need, you know, if we saw one unit of Republican guards cross over and stand with the demonstrators, that would be a signal that this regime is done, frankly. Now, you know, what's stopping them from doing it? First of all, and this is true in Venezuela. It's exactly, you know, Venezuela has an army, 100,000. It's got a very big army. The whole country has militias called Collativo, Maduro, organized for territorial defense. And why doesn't the Republican guards, when the same is true for the Venezuel military,

Why don't they do that when they see? Because they are getting huge economic benefits. They control the economy. 40 or 50% of the businesses in Iran are owned by Republican Guards. They don't have an economic future if the regime changes. And that's the biggest constraint. You don't think back, Peter. you and I did this together in a sense

when you were covering the Arabs during the spring in 2011 and we talked about the Egyptian military and what made Egypt different the Egyptian military would not fire on your own people they just would not they never have and the Iranian Republican guards

fire on your own people okay um this is this is the most serious challenge to this regime because when you have the president and you started that way when you have the president coming out and saying we own this economy is our problem we have to be held accountable and you have a budget that you can't get a budget bill through you have a budget deficit that is so terrible you have inflation that's That's 45%. And you have to rebuild your missile force because you're getting ready

because you're worried about an Israeli attack and you'll attack them first. You can't square the financial circle anymore. You just can't. And by the way, you connect these two stories. Who was in Venezuela when those U.S. helicopters

swooped at? Well, the Russians were there, of course, the Cubans. But there was a Chinese delegation there and there's a big Iranian delegation because they've used Venezuela to funnel money to Hezbollah and other assets. So you have an international gatherings in Caracas.

No, it's a, and they all had front row seats to see what happened on the weekend. And they all were, that's right, they were sitting right in the front row. Right. And so when Trump issues a threat like this now, okay um i'm almost out of time so let me just switch to one thing you know two weeks ago the last time we talked we um we thought you know this russia ukraine stuff is getting pretty serious

this looks like there could be there could be a solution here doesn't look that way anymore what happened why did they go puff and disappear well it's Putin right because it's You know, look, the Europeans, the Canadians are still getting together to design security guarantees in Paris tomorrow. But is Putin who thinks he's winning, and if that weren't enough, what he saw this weekend, why should he make any concession when Donald Trump says, I'd do what I want in my backyard? exactly and it's his backyard whatever else we think so

I don't know I had such great hopes that this was going to be here that everything was going to be different but it certainly hasn't started off that way and we're all the how many days into it five days yeah I know

I know but it's been five days that we're glad to have your your expertise and your analysis to help us try to understand what's going on here and we'll keep it going on Monday warnings and Monday afternoons, depending where we are in the country.

So we're glad to have you with us. Thanks, Jess. Pleasure. Happy New Year to your people, everyone who's listening. You too. Cheers. Well, there you go. Our first with Dr. Janice Stein for the 26 year.

And, yes, if you noticed some kind of audio differences from normal. You can blame that one on me. But nevertheless, fascinating conversation, as they always are, with Dr. Stein. A reminder of the question of the week, your prediction for 26, and it's prediction, not predictions. Just want one. And if you list off a bunch of them. The only one likely to make it is the first one, if any. All right? So just one prediction. So think it through. As we said, it could be anything, could be military, could be international, it could be political, it could be, well, I guess it could be business, it could be sports. Although I don't want a whole bunch of sports. This isn't a sports podcast. So I know

you're going to want it. The Blue Jays are going to win. the Leafs are going to win, the HABs are going to win. Habs are having quite the year so far. All right. That's going to do it for this opening day. Tomorrow is a more buts conversation. It's a really good one on affordability and whether governments can actually even do anything about that issue,

which for most Canadians and most Americans and most Europeans is the number one issue that voters face. So what can government do, if anything, about it? More butts on that tomorrow. Hope you'll join us. I'm Peter Mansbridge. Thanks so much for listening today. We'll talk to you again in less than 24 hours.

Thank you.