The Bridge with Peter Mansbridge - "Ukraine Can Win This War." Really? Is That The Right Thing To Say Right Now?

Episode Date: May 17, 2022

Some bold statements about how Ukraine can win what was thought to be an unwinnable war against Russia are being made by some top western leaders. Veteran correspondent and our weekly contributor on the Ukraine conflict, Brian Stewart, wonders. whether these are the things that should be said at this time.  Plus a mini potpourri on everything from drone mail service to whether calling someone bald is sexual harassment.

And hello there, Peter Mansbridge here. You are just moments away from the latest episode of The Bridge. Ukraine can win this war. Really? And is that the right thing to say right now? And hello there, Peter Mansbridge here. Welcome to Tuesday. Before we get into the Ukraine story for this week with our commentary, regular weekly commentary from Brian Stewart. First, a couple of words about yesterday's program. Our program that was dealing with hate and what one person can do about it. A lot of reaction to that program, not surprisingly. If you have something you'd like to say, if you haven't listened to it yet, I recommend

you listen to it. But you can write the Mansbridge Podcast at gmail.com, the Mansbridge Podcast at gmail.com. One point, though, that I want to make. Near the end of that broadcast, after the feature interview, I referred to a study that had been done with students in American and Canadian schools. And one of the results from it was shocking, really. It suggested that almost a third, I think it was about 31% was the claim, of students really didn't know anything about the Holocaust. Well, that sounded surprising at the time. And not only was it surprising, it turns out it was wrong.

The survey company involved has now suggested that their question was unclear, that students were confused by the question, and their methodology in putting the number together was questionable. As a result, they have basically withdrawn that number now. I think it's important to mention that. It's important to recognize that while the number, it's hard to go by anything in that survey after those kind of admissions, but the number is clearly much lower than that. However, it's still a number, whatever it is. And the whole point of yesterday's program was that, and it seems that many schools, many teachers, many organizations agree with this, that continuing education, and in some cases a lot more education, needs to be done with young people about the histories of hate. And obviously the Holocaust is one of those.

So I just wanted to make that point of clarification on something that I introduced late in that broadcast yesterday. All right. The Ukraine war now is almost at the three-month mark. It was February 23rd, 24th, that night, when the Russians began their invasion of Ukraine. So, you know, we're a week away, or a little more than a week away from the official kind of three-month anniversary.

And to say this has not gone Russia's way is an understatement, because it certainly hasn't. But having said that, what should be said? And that becomes the question around our commentary this week from our friend Brian Stewart, great foreign correspondent for the CBC, NBC, covered many a conflict, many wars in different parts of the world. And Brian is totally on top of the Ukraine story.

He is researching this on a daily and nightly basis. Listening to everything that's being said. Reading everything that's being written. And is, as I said, fully up to speed on this story. And therefore, once a week, we have a chat with Brian to see what's on his mind about this story and what's happening on it. So enough from me. Let's get to Brian Stewart. So, Brian, we've reached an interesting point in this conflict because of some of the things that are being said by some of the key players who are close to the action.

And one of them is the secretary general of the of nato and that's uh yen stoltenberg he you know he had a very simple thing uh that he said just in the last couple of days but it's got a lot of people wondering why he would say this he said ukraine could win this war now this is from the same side of those who worried so much that ukraine was going to lose it in a couple of days they've hung on for a couple of months and the war seems to be turning in certain uh ways in their favor but saying it ukraine could win this war has raised eyebrows explain that it certainly has we've entered a sort of phase two of the war now, which is very much changing from

as the Russians retreat from the north and the battle becomes more long, basically entirely on the north and northeast front and southern fronts. There has become a growing sense that the Ukraine no longer feels that it's just fighting for its life and eventually would be able to battle the Russians to a point where they'd have to negotiate a way out and they'd leave with very few gains, barely any gains, but enough to declare a victory. Now it appears that more and more NATO capitals are picking up sense from the Ukrainians that they actually do believe they can win this war. And that means not leaving any face-saving moves for Putin at all, not saving an exit ramp that the Russians could gracefully get off, declaring a form of victory. But the Ukrainians are becoming convinced the more they get armaments pouring in from

the West and huge financial benefits such as the United States promise of $40 billion and further aid now, that the Ukrainians are starting to feel, no, we can do more than just defend ourselves now. The Russians are so weak. They've shown themselves so inept. We can take this. We can really win this. We can push the Russians back before where they were,

but February the 23rd, before the invasion of the 24th, right to their own borders. We might even be able to take back, yes, why not take back, the Crimea as well. They reacted very strongly for instance when when macron of france came out last week and said you know the object here must not be to humiliate the russians we must not go for vengeance and instead of saying yes well we hear you ukrainians said we object to this kind of talk. I mean, you're wanting us to get a peace agreement by ceding some of our territory to Russia. That is not fair, and that's not going

to be done. We're in this to win, and we're in this to take back all of our territory, the Crimea included, was clearly indicated here. So this is setting a lot of talk going in Western capitals that, you know, sometimes in war, early success can lead to some strategic errors or some strategic overestimation of one's ability. is starting to think that because the Russians blew the first phase when they were on the attack, they'll also really blow the second phase when they're much more on the defense. Well, attacking is much harder at war than the defensive. And the Russian units, bad as many of them are, some aren't so bad, some are fairly good. On the defensive, Russia may be able to dig in and defend itself much better so if the if the ukrainians are thinking of going for victory it means a much longer war for for starters and in fact the ukrainian officials have already

talked about the war extending right up till the end of this year, which is many, many more months than the Western capitals were hoping for and planning for. And it also opens the possibility that Russia, unable to even face the fact of a loss, will have other options to turn to. One will be escalation, and the other will be a longer, wider war than anybody can now foresee. So it's causing some real concern. You're starting to see editorial comment beginning in Western media saying, wait a minute, this is becoming a kind of proxy war. You and I talked about that last week. The danger of the more we get involved in not only arming the Ukrainians, which has united support virtually before that, but using intelligence to pinpoint Russian targets, take out Russian generals, sink the Russian flagship, the Moskva, things like that.

That's clearly seen in Russia as a proxy war. And they would respond to the proxy war by doing one of several options they would have on their table to choose from. Let me back you up for a little bit in terms of, I'm still trying to get my head around why the NATO forces, why anybody within the NATO group would be hesitant about this option of winning the war. I mean, they have, as you said, they've armed the Ukrainians to the teeth, it appears.

They have backed it up with huge amounts of money. And you would assume that at a certain point there, that combination of those two things is going to mean more than just defense. It is the option of offense. So why wouldn't NATO want Ukraine to win the war outright? I think the short answer to that is the road to victory in war is always laced with minefields of real danger. And the real dangers in this war are striking. The road to victory in war is always laced with minefields of real danger. And the real dangers of this war are striking.

I should say that the NATO capitals, including France, Paris, do want to see the Russians, in fact, have their fingers badly singed. They do want to see them beaten back to at least where they were when the invasion began with maybe some seeding of small territory in the South. But to go for all-out victory means you really are then confronting Russia with the basic choice. Are you prepared to take an all-out defeat? Or are you, in fact, planning to do something to make that not happen what worries nato is well yes everybody would welcome in nato the russians being badly battered and indeed humiliated whatever france says they'd like to see you russia humiliated enough that it learns a lesson and doesn't try this again. This is what NATO really wanted to drive home in its support of Ukraine,

that we don't want this to ever happen to another country, so make it as painful as possible to Russia. But if Ukraine sees victories, and who would blame them for doing that? It would be absolutely natural for the Ukrainians to say, after all our losses on the battlefield, after so much physical destruction of this country, after all we've had to go through, why would we settle for anything less than victory? We can certainly understand that. But what does Russia do if faced with this? Is the Kremlin likely to say, okay, guys, we pretty well blew it. We lost.

We're pulling our military out. We're being humiliated. You can pretty well be the laughingstock of the world for the next 20, 30 years. Or is it going to do one of several things? The first fear, of course, is that they may escalate to the use of tactical nuclear weapons. Maybe even just a demonstration of a tactical nuclear explosion going off in the Black Sea, say, for instance, or something more serious, or the use of chemical weapons, which would be absolutely dire, but they might move to that. Or Putin might simply say, I don't have to win this year. I don't have to make a decision this year.

We'll settle down into a long-drawn-out stalemate. It's an artillery war now. We've got far superior artillery to the Ukrainians. Our Air Force is coming back into its own and starting to fly more missions. We've got lots of armaments that we can dig in around and hold our place there. And we can extend this war in a painful way to Ukraine that it hasn't seen yet. Even the shelling of Kiev, even the shelling of the other cities

wasn't the total kind of shelling and rocketry and cruise missile offensives that we can bring to bear on where? Odessa. Here we turn to the, call it the Odessa file if you want, but the Odessa is the one open port of Ukraine. absolutely for its exports in future. The Russians could probably, without too much effort, concentrate their fire on Odessa and essentially reduce it to rubble through the waters around it with mines and basically close down the Black Sea to Ukraine. And that loss of that would be of enormous damage to Ukraine beyond anything

even imagined in the war so far. It would lose most of its ability to export its foodstuffs, for instance, desperately needed by the world. So therefore, the Western military are saying to themselves, you know, we don't want a long war. We don't want an escalation in this war. We were thinking there would be some form of diplomatic settlement of this war. And that means something less than a full Ukrainian victory. So really, it's a torn mind. It's a real dilemma here. Yes, victory sounds nice. But what comes with victory is more pain, more escalation, and a lot more danger than we've ever counted on

that's the problem you know i i love the fact that you brought back the odessa file uh you and i are old enough to remember of course this was a very uh popular kind of 60s cold war movie called the odessa file that's actually being made now into a new uh television series um that is out i think it's in in britain but it's uh but it you know it was a huge you know first book and then movie uh was very popular anyway let me just ask one last question um the whole issue of uh finland and sweden joining nato uh has been dominant over the last few days and we kind of touched upon it a little bit last week but putin has said to finland you better not do this you're biting off more than you can chew and we will retaliate if you do this now is that a putin bluff because you know that would be opening up a real two-front conflict for him if he's suddenly started moving

men and machinery to the finland border which is a long border what is about 600 miles long i think between russia and finland but are we is that a bluff or is that something we should be being very weary of leery i think it's certainly a military bluff i think he may have other forms of retaliation but the reality is you know the west is starting to see more and more bluff from Putin. He was thought on May the 9th that he'd come down with some news of escalation of the war. It didn't happen. He looked very tired. In fact, just I think today or late last night, he said in an interview that Finland and Sweden joining NATO would not necessarily be a threat to Russia. So a change already there.

He has no military ability, really, to take on Sweden and Finland, which have significant forces themselves. But also NATO is now sending out signals that even when they're before they become members of nato nato would move to defend finland and sweden given a kind of um uh i don't know path you know desperation you can now call on us so i think they sense it's a bluff and i think both sweden and finland would have poured all their intelligence abilities with the help of allies, and they're trying to figure out what the Russians are likely to do. And they seem pretty confident that they can get away with this without any really very severe retaliation by Russia's hand, and we'll have to see whether they call that right or not.

If there is retaliation, it might come more at at sea that would be an area we rarely talk about talking about the northern flank of nato as the countries what about the sea beyond the countries where we have you know with canada as ships in those waters other nato countries have ships in those waters russia's navy is largely unused and not very effectively used as we know but it could try something like uh blockades or or just real scare tactics in the northern waters that would would raise the temperature a lot uh all this comes at a time when once again the health of putin is has been you know talked about and reported on and there was some stuff in the last few days that was suggesting that

he's being treated for a kind of blood cancer. The kind that ends up giving a patient those kind of chipmunk cheeks that one gets and that's clearly Putin seems to have that

in terms of the images of his face reflect that, have reflected that in the past few months very different than the way he looked a year ago. But his health has been a question mark since the beginning of this. And what I've noticed about him is when you see him, say, live on May 9th, giving the speech, which was, I thought, very low key. He doesn't have that kind of coiled energy spring look to him that he used to have. You know, when he liked to show off bare chested, go hunting and the rest of it. He actually looks quite tired quite frequently in the photo ops now. There's a kind of almost sadness coming over his face i don't i won't read any more into that other than the fact that he's probably pretty weary after you know been pretty much worse since february the night of february the 23rd 24th

uh no doubt he's he's tired no doubt he's gloomy but he certainly doesn't look the old putin of just a couple years ago i find well given the way the war has gone for him so far i don't imagine he's sleeping all that well and uh any russell outside the door probably has him up pretty quick i mean it's a you know there's so many stories involved in the, you know, around. He keeps seeing an ever more energetic Zelensky up there, you know, touring the world, now doing a tour of U.S. universities, virtual tour, to get university students behind Ukraine in the war. It's just remarkable what he's seen as his enemy. And just that must be very dispiriting for him the book on zolensky when this is all over is going to be quite the book because uh you know a guy who was kind of looked at as well you know he was an actor he was a comedian really how's he going to be able to deal with this uh not very well was the assumption on the part of many and now he's become this kind of textbook how to handle a crisis

leader it's it's remarkable the story i was very pleased to see a note came from an old uh eastern european hero that we would remember from our reporting days like foenza you know and in ways he reminds me at times of like foenza who's an electrician working on the docks in pol when he rose to the Solidarity Movement and he had some of that ability to turn the governments of the world in his favor and get enormous attention.

So he has a sort of leg for Wednesday air to him as well, which is good background. Yeah, Gdansk is where it was from and i i can i remember i remember the time when you when you got there you you know you got to gadansk or somewhere where you where you actually uh met with him or interviewed him or covered him or scrum whipped

him or something but back there just about to be that held prisoner and all of a sudden he was going to be killed any day he'd be run over by a truck mysteriously or the kgb as it then was would find one of this innovative ways to get rid of him and he was coming out of a room and there was about five or six of us in the media surrounding him and one of the american reporters shouted out are you frightened and he looked at him and said, I am afraid of nothing. I am afraid only of God and nothing else. And he looked to me, the most indestructible human being I've ever run into. Absolute strength to the old.

I saw him about 20 years later in 2002 we shared a stairwell going in opposite directions at the stadium in salt lake city for the 2002 olympics because he was one of the you know six or eight um flag holders you know how they sort of parade the flag the olympic flag in and they have you know eight celebrities they could be from sports the politics or wherever in in terms of different places in the world. And he was one of them on that occasion. And this was before, about an hour before the ceremony took place. And he was heading down and I was heading up the stairwell. And I was like, wow, like for once, you know, amazing.

I'll throw in one more story. You can snip out but i did a couple years later when he was uh sort of i think he may have been already president but i was sitting down with him um and i'd sit down interview with him and the crew he was a former electrician of course a union boss electrician and a no-nonsense electrician and the crew started running into electricity problems. The plugs weren't working or something.

And you see this guy looking at them, if you try the WKZ, try that over there, you idiot. And someone said, calling them out. And I would say, oh my god, don't mess up at least the electricity with this guy. I wonder what his hourly rate was

okay brian we're gonna leave it at that for for this week um great great commentary and interesting thoughts for us to keep in mind thanks again thank you brian stewart always great to talk to brian and uh nice to to reflect on some of the uh uh the casual encounters that uh a person like brian has had over the years in terms of his reporting career and that story with like for whence giving the crew advice on how to handle an electrical problem uh is pretty good all right we're going to take quick pause and then a mini version of our old series of potpourri because I've got some great little stories to tell you and they will come right after this. And welcome back. Peter Mansbridge here in Stratford, Ontario.

You're listening to The Bridge on Sirius XM, Channel 167, Canada Talks, or on your favorite podcast platform and wherever you're listening from. We're glad you're with us today. Okay, a couple of stories before we leave for this day. That, you know, I have this pile of stories I always have.

You know, sometimes in the business we call it filler. We need a couple of extra moments. And lately I haven't had room for filler because we've just been, you know, chock-a-block with material. But today, time for a couple. I like this one. You know, there's so much talk about drones, and we usually talk about drones in terms of their military value,

of which there's no doubt there is some. They're controversial as a military asset, but nevertheless, they do exist. But they also exist for a lot more than that, and more than just, you know, for hobbyists who use drones in in certain areas where you're allowed to use drones but they're being used on a commercial basis as well and the latest to join the the throng is the royal mail in the united kingdom they're building a fleet of 500 drones to carry mail to remote communities in the UK, including the Isles of Scilly and the Hebrides.

So let's have a look at how they're doing that. The Postal Service, which has already conducted successful trials over Scotland and Cornwall, will create more than 50 new postal drone routes over the next three years. As part of a new partnership with the London company Wind Racers. Drones or UAVs as they're called. And you know what UAVs stand for? I'm waiting. You're not telling me.

Here it is. A UAV is an uncrewed aerial vehicle. There you go, right? Did you know that already? I'm sure some of you did. But like me, maybe a lot of you didn't. Anyway, they can help reduce carbon emissions and improve the reliability of island mail services, so says the Royal Mail. They offer an alternative to currently used delivery methods that can be affected by bad weather, ferries, conventional aircraft, and land-based deliveries. They can also take off from any flat surface, sand, grass, tarmac, providing it's long enough. This is from an article, by the way, in the Daily Mail in London. Drones are usually thought of as small devices. You know, you see them, they're kind of like handheld.

Well, not these ones the Royal Mail has. They have a hefty wingspan of over 30 feet, 10 meters. So these aren't small. They can carry up to wingspan of over 30 feet, 10 meters. So these aren't small. They can carry up to 100 kilograms of mail, all shapes and sizes, for two daily return flights between the islands. After being picked up from the landing sites, letters and parcels are then delivered by the local postie in his or her van, so human workers aren't being completely replaced quite yet. The planes in the future have smaller drones taking the mail from the drop-off point right to your postal code.

Drop it on your doorstep. That's the plan. Now, these are much like a small plane. You see the pictures of them. They look like a little plane, except they don't have a pilot on board, and they fly a programmed route autonomously based on inputted postcode. The drones are monitored along the way to ensure they are completely safe. There are safety pilots at either end of the route, too,

who are able to take control of the drone if needed, and that's, you know, take control of it by computer. They're less likely to be affected by bad weather such as fog and heavy rain than conventional aircraft. There's no need for the pilot to be able to see where they're going, which means they can fly in fog. And finally, delivery firms are pioneering a host of new technologies to tackle the last mile of deliveries. It's hoped that the vehicles can cut the inefficiencies and hence costs of the final stage of delivery

in which packages are taken from a central hub right to your door. I'm not sure I'd need that last part. You know, as you know, many of you know, we have a little place in Scotland. And Archie, the postie, is a really important part of that story, and the fact that we love the place so much, and Archie can't be replaced. He certainly can't be replaced by a little piece of machinery. That would take away some of the character of the place, I think.

All right, here's the second piece of potpourri. Sounds like they talked to me on this one. The headline in the magazine called Study Finds, aches, anxiety, exhaustion. Adults feel good just 47 percent of the time says this study feeling good is becoming an increasingly rare commodity these days according to a new survey in a poll of 2 000 people this one's in the uk as well it turns out adults truly feel good both mentally and physically less than half of the time, 47%.

Six in 10 say they rarely feel on top of their game physically. Another 61% have simply accepted that aches and pains are part of their daily life. Why? Top answers include not exercising enough, a poor diet, and not having enough hours in a day. All in all, only 63% of respondents say they would consider themselves healthy.

On a related note, 23% have recently put themselves on a diet, 41% started going to bed earlier, and another 41% are trying to drink more water You know, I keep being told, drink more water Whenever you feel any kind of urge or anything, drink water I love water I love cold water But I have a hard time drinking it all the time 40% have started exercising more

27% are taking more vitamins and supplements. 1 in 10 people have even recently booked themselves a spa day. Haven't done that. Unfortunately, over 4 in 10 believe it's just too expensive to indulge in these activities on a regular basis. Another 40% say it takes too much time. Do you hear yourself in any of those stats? Okay, here's the last one. And I don't know.

I was attracted to this story. It's also from a British newspaper, The Mirror. I don't know how you're going to feel about this. Here's the headline. Calling a man bald is considered sexual harassment. That's what a tribunal has ruled. Comes in a case between a veteran electrician and his employers. Tony Finn, who's 64 years old, just a young guy,

claimed he'd been a victim of sexual harassment when his colleague used the adjective bald to describe him. Well, a man being called bald is sexual harassment, an employment tribunal has ruled. The panel sitting at Sheffield agreed and compared it to when someone mentions a woman's breasts. Now, the ruling was made by a panel, an employment panel of three men. And guess what? All three of them were bald. Finn was fired in May of last year in Yorkshire for a company he'd worked for for 24 years

and had an unblemished record. Finn told the tribunal when he was continually described this way, he was fearful of violence. His colleagues denied any violent intentions. The tribunal heard that Finn wrote a statement with his police officer's son on official police paper. When this was handed to his bosses at the firm, which makes wooden cask closures for the brewing industry, they accused him of trying to intimidate them, and they fired him on the spot. The tribunal said of the bald comment, it was a violation of the claimant's dignity.

It created an intimidating environment for him, and it related to the claimant's sex. Finn's in line for compensation after winning claims of unfair dismissal, wrongful dismissal, and being subjected to sex harassment. Well, there you go. I don't mind being called bald it's never bothered me

well it bothered me at the beginning the first time somebody said Peter you're going bald I was horrified you know I was like 20 something and I kind of laughed it off. I was in the office until I got home. And then I was in contorted positions with a mirror

trying to figure out where I was going bald. And I realized, in fact, yes, I was. So it took a while to get used to. But hey, bald is beautiful. Isn't that what they say? The other thing I should mention, because I know some of you are already saying, Peter, why do you say harassment, not harassment? Well, the bottom line is both are acceptable if you go to the appropriate dictionaries. You know, we don't say

embarrassment, we say embarrassment. So why don't we say harassment? I don't know, I'm a lone fighter on this front. Nobody, everybody else says harassment. I've't know. I'm a lone fighter on this front. Nobody, everybody else says harassment.

I've preferred harassment. All right. On that note, it's time to say goodbye. This being the Tuesday edition of The Bridge. Tomorrow, Smoke Mirrors and the Truth. Bruce Anderson will join us. I think he's in Edinburgh tomorrow. So we'll check in with him.

We're going to talk a little bit about a number of subjects, but including Charles and Camilla, who begin to visit Canada today. And I'm sure things will go well, but I can tell you that the last couple of times Charles has been here, it's been like not much to say about the visit. You know, pretty quiet, small crowds, nothing like the Queen,

nothing like Will and Kate, probably nothing like Harry and Meghan if they came. But Charles, the future king, the soon-to-be king, one assumes, certainly within the next decade. Will there be a buzz around Charles? Should there be? What can he do to create some? Well, we'll talk to Bruce about that.

And other things, of course. All right. That's tomorrow on the bridge. I'm Peter Mansbridge. Thanks so much for listening. It's always good to know you are out there giving us a listen. Take care. We'll see you again and talk to you in 24 hours.