The Bridge with Peter Mansbridge - What Do Americans Really Think -- A New Survey Has Some Surprising Answers

Episode Date: June 23, 2020

Abacus Data Chairman Bruce Anderson is back with us by popular demand and his latest survey is not of Canadians but Americans and some of its findings are staggering.

And hello there, Peter Mansbridge here with the latest episode of the Bridge Daily. As we're well into week 15 of the daily edition of The Bridge, and today's a special edition. We had Bruce Anderson on as a guest early on. I don't know, I can't remember which week it was. Three, I think, maybe. Three or four. Trying to get a sense then at the time

in terms of surveying the Canadian mood, what it was like as we were into the pandemic. Bruce is, of course, the chairman of Abacus Data, which gives a constant surveying of our country in terms of the moods of Canadians on various issues, often political. And Bruce has a very good reputation in that business, and I'm a friend of Bruce's, have been for a long time, and Bruce was one of the members of the old Ad Issue panel back in the days when I was hosting the National.

So Bruce is doing something a little different in the last week. He's been tracking American opinions, kind of a mood of America as a result of all these various things that have been happening, whether it's COVID-19, whether it's the issues surrounding race and systemic racism. And he wanted to gauge American opinion, also American opinion on Canada. So that's kind of the basis of a fairly large survey that Bruce has just done. Now, keep in mind, and I always say this about polls or research surveys, that they're a snapshot of the mood at the time they were taken. You shouldn't necessarily use polls or surveys of this kind to predict the future. A lot of people do. That's wrong. It's a snapshot of a moment. And in this case, on this survey, and I'll get Bruce to explain it when we get started here,

more about the details, the kind of logistics of this particular Habacus data survey. But it was taken a week ago. So it's not the mood today. It's not the mood tomorrow. It's not the mood tomorrow. It's not the mood in November when the election takes place. But it gives us a good sense of where Americans are right now

and in their feelings. So keep all that in mind. And there are some, at least for me, I found surprising results in this survey. So please listen closely, and I'll talk to you on the other side of this conversation with Bruce.

All right, Bruce, give me the details on the poll, sort of when it was done, how many people were talked to, where those people were, and the sort of method. Did you phone? Did you go online? How was that done? Yeah, this was an online poll, Peter, like most of the polls that we do these days and like most pollsters are doing these days. It was 1,500 samples, so really towards the higher end of the kind of samples that people use to measure national voting intention.

And it was a sample drawn from across the United States, very representative. And, of course, we published our findings on voting intention at the outset of our releases and showed a 14-point lead for Vice President Biden, which I think in the subsequent days, several U.S. pollsters found very similar results. Okay. And just to go over the numbers, when you say 1,500 is the higher end of things, to some people it sounds, wow, you know, listen, there's a country of 330 million people. Does 1,500 really represent the mood of the country. The fact is that 1,500 is, as you say, more than a lot of polls

that get a lot of attention in the States take. Yeah, absolutely. It's a very representative sample. And most polls that are taken seriously these days have sample sizes of 1,000 or 1,200. So this is definitely in that range of data sets that people should look at and say, this is probably a pretty good reflection of what's out there. Okay. Aside from the horse race numbers, which you just mentioned between Biden and Trump,

you were trying to get a sense of the American mood as it relates to Trump and as it relates really to the American-Canada relationship. So I want to go through a few of the findings that I've noticed that you've found. But I want to start with getting your sense. To you, what struck you most of what you found in this survey? I think what struck me the most, maybe it's partly as a Canadian who kind of sees our country and says, well, we don't know everything about the world, but we are fairly

focused on what the rest of the world is thinking or doing. Whereas I think American society more typically, it's a little bit more inward looking and less aware of what's happening in the rest of the world, less aware of how America is viewed in other parts of the world. And when I looked at these data, I kind of felt like the last four years have made that situation become problematic for America and maybe problematic for Canada. In other words, that more people seem to know less about America's standing in the world, America's relationships with the rest of the world. And those people were disproportionately those Trump voters who were kind of taking pretty

much everything that President Trump says as gospel and using Fox News as a kind of a reminder of what to think rather than an invitation to think. So I was more concerned about that because obviously it has ramifications for Canada, but it also points up a fundamental choice, I think, as America approaches this election in just over 100 days. You know, you wrote a piece for Maclean's this week based on some of your results, and a number of things struck me. So I want to get you to kind of explain them. This is one, you write, as many Americans think Russia is America's best friend as think France, Italy, or Germany is. Really? Yeah, so 5% picked these

countries, basically, and more people picked the UK and Canada. But the fact that Russia was kind of even in that same zone, as countries that America has fought alongside, has been involved in military alliances with for decades, it didn't say to me that people have started to love Russia and started not to like France or Italy or Germany, but it really kind of spoke to a kind of a lack of thoughtfulness about where America is vis-a-vis the rest of the world. And that permits, if you like, the kind of behavior that we've seen from President Trump. And maybe it's abetted by that, where he takes on NATO from the get-go and seems to imply that this has been a bad deal for America,

even though America was very involved in deciding to set it up to protect American interests. Where the President can, as recently as only a few weeks ago, said that he thinks that he should invite Vladimir Putin to the G7 meeting, even though the rest of the countries would say, well, no, that's not something that we're prepared to consider. So this sense that there aren't really consequences because people don't know what the relationship is or has been in the past is a risk that I think is greater as people consume media differently. In other words, that they kind of stay in their lanes listening to views that reinforce their political choice. And maybe more importantly for America, as we're in this situation now where for a significant number, millions of voters, it's party over country and leader over party. And I don't think that in my lifetime we've seen anything like that.

It's also got to say something about the opposition, whether it's the Democrats or whomever it may be, that they're not making their voice heard on this kind of an issue if an increasing number of Americans are believing the rhetoric, which is basically what it is, about the relationships with other countries? It is. You know, I remember that in the latter part of President Obama's time in office, he talked a lot about how there was this cohort in America of people who wanted to believe that the problems that they were experiencing in the part of the economy in the country that they existed in were really caused by foreigners or immigration or left-wingers or Democrats. And instead, he was saying, look, technological change is the biggest factor. And the migration of businesses towards the coastal states is a thing that's hollowing out the economy of the heartland. And education is the critical factor that affects success down the road. And all of that, I think, was sensible.

And it was probably the right way for people to kind of consume what was happening to their economy and plan a more successful future. But it became easier for some people to hear a message that said, no, it's the Mexicans, or no, it's Islam, or it's not technology, it's China stealing our technology. if we can put up all kinds of walls and nothing bad will happen to us, has definitely been used by President Trump and many of his supportive Republicans as a way to sustain their support level. But to your question of does it mean that the Democrats are not getting through, I look at the polls and I say, I think this is going to be a very difficult election for President Trump. I'm not one of those who look at these numbers and these trends and say he's in a good position to win an election again. Well, 14 points is 14 points. But I think we all know that we're,

whatever it is, five months out from the actual election. And in many cases, election campaigns in the states don't really start until after Labor Day. And there's the conventions to come this summer, such as they are given the pandemic. But things are likely to tighten up. It's hard to believe that we'll be looking at a 14-point spread in the couple of weeks before an election, but you never know. You never know. I guess I look at countries and jurisdictions around the world, certainly the experience in Canada, incumbent governments trying to manage their way of the sense of chaos, of the constant friction, of the idea that Americans should be fighting among themselves rather than trying to find a way to pull together. That question is kind of simple and obvious as to whether or not you should wear a mask to prevent the spread of a virus that's killed 120,000 people,

that that should become a question of, are you a real American or are you the right kind of American? I think that is a problem that many soft Trump and soft Republican voters are now starting to look at and say, this is too high a price to pay. And so I think they are leaning very much towards a change. All right. I want to move on to the America-Canada relationship in some of these questions you asked, but I have one other one that I found scary, basically. Here's the way you write it for McLean's. If Trump loses, most Republican voters say they will believe the election was rigged if he tries to stay in office after losing. They don't think the military should try to remove him.

In other words, they trust him no matter what the result is. That is staggering to hear that. It is staggering. And this is a country that we kind of watched always return to the idea of the Constitution of the United States being almost this perfectly designed document that set out checks and balances and that the founding fathers who wrote it had thought through all of the ways in which people could come to power and try to abuse their power and corrupt the democracy. And yet we're now in a situation where the corrosive effects of that kind of appeal to tribalism, along with the disintegration of kind of a mainstream media that everybody sort of looks at and says, okay, this is the fact base that we should all use. Those two things together have put us in a situation where people are essentially

saying, well, I don't know if the Constitution would be the thing that I would use to guide what happens next, if this should happen. I think that's very dangerous. I think one of the things that we're trying to do with the poll is to say, look just how far this instinct to support party over country and leader over party takes us. Because let's be really clear that this is not a great set of data for Republicans as well. They will need to, at some point, answer the questions whether they were sufficiently defensive of the constitutional norms. And as I kind of think about what's going to happen in this election, I very much worry about voter suppression. I think there's going to be a bigger effort to suppress turnout among people of color than we saw in the past. And I think that the data clearly show that

racial tensions are very high right now. And even half in our sample said that the risk of a civil war is serious. That too is a staggering number for half of those surveyed suggesting that. It's a staggering number, especially, Peter, when we hear the president say that America has never been greater than under his watch, that it's got the strongest economy in the world. And I use the line where I think in the McLean's piece where I say, well, America is richer but angrier. And I think the truth, obviously, is not everybody's richer.

And some of the people who are richer are angrier, although they really need to be is a pretty legitimate question. And some of the people who aren't getting ahead, who are falling behind, who are discriminated against, they're angry, and they have reason to be angry. But the combination of these effects of a country that could ostensibly look at itself and say, a lot of things are going relatively well, if you compare it to the other, you know, more than 150 countries in the world. To have this level of anger, to have this sense of the potential for a civil war, to have this kind of uncertainty about what America really looks like to the rest of the world,

it's really remarkable. Okay, let's move to a question on the U.S. concerning the relationship between America and Canada. And I set this against the backdrop of the fact, while they both may say publicly that they respect each other, it's generally known that Trump and Trudeau don't like each other. And there's, you know, lots of examples that you can point to in that area. However, even though that may well be known, and there have been, you know, incidents that have been reported, you show that under Trump's time in office, Republicans are four times more likely to say relations with Canada have improved 41% than think they've worsened 8%. So how do you factor that in? Well, I actually think that I looked at all of those results about what do they think that relations with Germany have improved, with France have improved, with the UK have improved.

And the same patterns are there, even though objectively, if you look at the facts of the relationship, you say, well, Trump's got a bad relationship with Macron of France. He's got a bad relationship with Merkel. He's got, you know, whatever the relationship is with Trudeau. It's hard to look at the facts and say this is this has been a time where America has strengthened its relationships with its key allies. It's been a lot more time. At least the voice of the president has has been devoted more to criticizing allies and longtime friends. But Republicans don't hear that. What they hear is that everything's going great. And I think that's one of the more telling things for me in this. The notion that I think roughly 80% said that Trump was managing the Canada relationship well, and almost as many said Trudeau was managing the U.S. relationship well. It wasn't as though people were saying, well, I know there's been more friction and I think that that's a good thing. They were essentially saying, I haven't really heard anything that makes me think things are going worse.

Whereas if you're living in Canada or in any of these other countries, your perception is probably that there's been some strains in this relationship. And you're hoping that things will get better in the future. Now, Americans are also saying, including Republicans, they're saying they want closer trade relations with Canada. They want easier movement of people across the border to work. But even today, as we're speaking, President Trump is kind of taking actions that seem to kind of go in the opposite direction. And if the path is prelude, then we can count on Republican voters saying, well, whatever he says is probably what we should do. What could go wrong for Canada in all this? From what you're seeing in these results across the board, Canada's stake in the situation, and that has a sense of what our military and security arrangements should be. Because I think the corrosive effect of the Trump time in office has been one that people could look at and say, well, if this only lasts for this much longer,

we're going to be able to get through it. We'll be able to kind of resume a more normal trading relationship without this constant threat of tariffs that are born of, you know, a desire to help one senator win one seat and are kind of written on the back of a napkin on Air Force One. Or, you know, whereas I think that Canadians would expect that there's always going to be friction. Under Democrats, there were always softwood lumber disputes, and presumably there always will be disputes of that sort. But at least there would be less sense of chaos and more sense of the predictability of the relationship, which I think is important for economic health, because if we can't count

on that relationship to be predictable, then we need to start thinking about, well, what else are the policy approaches that Canada should take to make sure that our people have work and can trade with the rest of the world? And I happen to see, you know, if you could be the most successful company in the world building the things that we're all going to want in the future, but if you need to bring workers from other parts of the world to America to do that, we're not sure we're up for that. Well, Canada should be up for that. Canada is up for that. And if those companies are looking for a place that welcomes immigration, we know that Canada needs more immigration to replace its population and to

keep its economy growing. So I do see opportunity as well as risk. All right, last question. We still see the MAGA hats everywhere, the red hat, the Make America Great Again symbol on it, which was Trump's slogan for 2016. You know, he claimed that was some kind of new slogan. It goes back a century, at least, of various politicians in different countries, including this one, running on some form of, you know, making the country great again. Anyway, that aside, in terms of Americans right now, were you able to get a sense whether they think Trump has actually made America greater? Yeah, we did ask that question. And, you know, there's a tremendous doubt across the land with the exception of among Trump voters,

um, doubts across America about whether Trump has made America greater or made America weaker are pretty profound. I'm just looking for that particular number. So it's 41% who say America is greater. Thanks to Trump. 59% who say America is weaker. When you look at the attitudes of Republicans and Democrats and independents, this to me tells the tale heading into this election. 80% of Republicans say, yes, he's made America greater. 80% of Democrats, 82 actually, say he's made America weaker. And so then I look at the independents, and it's 68 weaker, 32 greater. So

those independent voters are not lining up behind the president right now. And I guess the question in my mind is, for those voters, will his return to the wall today in Yuma, Arizona, will that be the kind of thing that they're looking for to go, oh, yeah, I forgot how upset I should be at Mexican labor coming into the country? Or I forgot about how worried I should be about illegal immigration more generally? Or are they going to say, why is he focusing on that? Why is he not focusing on other issues that maybe have a little bit more materiality in terms of our future? Why are we not hearing him talk a little bit more about Black Lives Matter? What is it that he's got to say about the pandemic now that we see the cases spiking? So I feel like if he's trying to pitch the independent,

I don't see the evidence that what he's doing is going to win them unless he pivots between now and the election day. And without the independents, it's awfully hard to draw a picture of him winning in the final vote. So I guess your advice to those of us who are, you know, seeing polls every day is that's the number we should be watching and seeing whether it's moving up or down. And that's the independent vote. The independent vote and the swing states.

And I think it's so important for those of us in Canada who kind of know our electoral system to recognize that fundamental difference is that there's a handful of states that President Trump won last time that are on the bubble. And if he doesn't win them, if he doesn't win Florida, for example, very difficult for him to win the election. He lost the popular vote last time, but I think it was three percentage points. And so he can lose the popular vote. But if he loses in those swing states, he'll lose the election. And if he loses the independent voter, but if he loses in those swing states, he'll lose the election. And if he loses the independent voter, he'll probably lose in those swing states. Fascinating stuff, Bruce, as always.

Thanks so much for giving us a sense of what you found. Really great to talk with you, Peter, and congratulations on the bridge. I'm really glad that you're doing it. Thank you. So there you go, Bruce Anderson, the chairman of Abacus Data, and the results of his survey of a significant size, about 1,500. And as we said, that's a large sample size for polling in the states.

And that probably explains why the Abacus survey has received some traction in the States in discussion on some of its findings. Now, you may have some comments as well that you might want to make on this, so drop me a line at themansbridgepodcast at gmail.com, themansbridgepodcast at gmail.com. That's it for this Tuesday of week 15 as we head towards hump day tomorrow. I'll be looking forward to chatting with you then. So, I'm Peter Mansbridge.

This has been the Bridge Daily. We'll talk to you again in 24 hours. Thank you.