The Bridge with Peter Mansbridge - What Do The Latest Pandemic Numbers Really Say?

Episode Date: September 3, 2020

Plus, the remarkable delivery chain being established to get the vaccine when it's ready to you.

and hello there peter mansbridge here with the latest episode of the bridge daily and i'm going to start on this thursday of week 25 with a apology for what happened near the end of yesterday's podcast when the house alarm went off here, which turned out to be a false alarm. But as it turned out, I got a number of emails from some of you yesterday who said, well, they weren't upset, but they said they thought it was an alarm of some kind in their house. So they were applauding the audio quality of this podcast on the one hand, but reminding me that an alarm there can sound like an alarm in their house, which it did in some cases.

So sorry about that. Kept us all on our toes, right? So one of the things that we haven't done of late is sort of check in on the numbers, because I know there's a lot of concern on the part of a lot of the Bridge Daily listeners as to where we are right now in the whole COVID-19 story, especially with going back to school started in some regions already.

We'll definitely start next week in many other areas. And so parents and teachers and students are of some concern, but some of the background of the concern, quite apart from the whole issue of what's going to happen in the schools and how this is going to play out, and the rules seem to keep changing about class sizes and class frequencies, distance between desks, all that stuff. Set also in the background is, are we in the midst of a new spike?

You know, that's all there's talk those talk about as the second wave hit is that what's happening well I think we've got to be careful here and keep things in perspective as to what in fact has been happening now I'm not an expert on any of this. We're going to, I think it would be wise to start next week with an expert, and we will. So, but there are some numbers we can crunch here because they're publicly available, and they kind of tell us a story about what's happening in the country as a whole.

There have been hot spots of late. B.C. has been one. Alberta has been one. Manitoba has been one. In relative terms, in terms of the size of their provinces, their numbers have spiked a bit. Ontario's numbers, which looked really good there for a couple of weeks, they were down

into double digits are now back up into triple digits but in the low 100s like today was you know 131 or something like that um so but nevertheless it's been enough for people in those provinces at least to be concerned somewhat Quebec's numbers popped up a little bit as well. But in the big picture, in terms of numbers, you've got to keep some of these things in the proper perspective. You know, yesterday, I'm not using today numbers because it takes a while for all of them to come in, and some provinces report much later than others. But the totals for yesterday, when they were all hung up on the board for yesterday, showed 498 new cases in Canada alone, just in Canada, across the board, everybody added in together, 498. Now, you want to compare that to a country that feels that it's starting to get things

under control somewhat, and that's our neighbor to the south in the U.S. that's had a bad, you know, had a bad August. Their numbers have got a little better in the last week. But how many cases did they have yesterday in one day? 33,000. Okay, sure, they're 10 times bigger than we are. 33,000 is not 10 times more than 498 deaths in total across Canada yesterday. in the U.S.? 1,076. All right.

The positivity rate. Remember I talked about this a couple of weeks ago. It's kind of the number that I've started to look at. So of the tests done, how many report back as positive, the percentage? It's also an indicator as to how things are doing in your area. So in Canada, the positivity rate yesterday was 2.2%, and it's been holding kind of steady in that area for the past few weeks, if not longer, 2.2%.

Considered if you're anywhere under 5, you're in a very good position. We're at 2.2. Now, our friends to the south, the Americans, they've actually been fighting a winning battle against the positivity rate. Although you could argue they're not doing enough testing, but nevertheless, of the tests that are being done, their positivity rate is now down to 5.5%.

So they're getting close to that 5% figure, which is where you want to be at, less than. Well, obviously, you want to be at zero. But on the way to zero, you've got to pass through 5%, and that's where they're close to doing now. So there you go. Let's keep things in perspective we're not doing as well as we were doing a few weeks ago but we're doing pretty well overall when you consider those numbers

right new cases yesterday 4988. Deaths yesterday, three. Canada, nationwide. Okay, you want to also see those numbers down to zero. Well, that's not going to happen for a while. And is there going to be a second wave? We don't know. The assumption is there going to be a second wave? We don't know. The assumption is there will be, and the warnings are that it could be a tough one,

a real second wave. But nobody knows with certainty about that. One thing they do know about certainty is the regular seasonal flu. The vaccine for it is coming out very soon, like within days. Maybe in fact out in some places already.

So you've got to make a decision there. Your doctor will tell you, at least 99% of doctors will tell you, take the vaccine for the seasonal flu. At least put that one aside so you're not doing a double flu whammy this fall if there's a serious second wave. Anyways, I said I'm not a doctor. But I can access, just like you can access, those numbers.

And it's worth keeping them in mind. And as I said, next week, early in the week, I haven't decided Monday may be a holiday, right? It is a holiday. So that means I should take the day off, right? Well, I think I will. But whatever the case, early next week, Monday or Tuesday, we'll get an expert on to tell us where are we in this big picture. What are the numbers really telling us? Now, as I said, all things end, for most people anyway,

who believe in using them, all things end when there's a vaccine. And we're hearing, as we have had all year, the earliest possibility on vaccines could be December, which is great for step one of a vaccine. But as we've said all along, there are at least two issues here. There's finding, you know, doing the research to get a vaccine, and then second, delivering it and deciding who you're delivering it to. Like who's going to get it? Where are we going to be in the line for the vaccine?

But there's actually a middle stage that I've kind of glossed over. Now, some of you will say, oh, Peter, don't get trapped in the weeds. But you know me, I love the weeds. And I love this whole issue of how are they going to get it from the research lab or the lab that is producing the vials of vaccine to your doctor's office, the drugstore, the government vaccine issuing place. The delivery is quite the process.

And I stumbled onto this article, as I often stumble, and I found it fascinating. Maybe it's just that part of me that loves stories about getting stuff from A to B and how are they going to fly it and what do they have to do to store it and just that part of me that loves stories about getting stuff from A to B and how are they going to fly it and what do they have to do to store it and all that. Well, not surprisingly, the big deliverers on the vaccine are likely to be the kind of people that you use and I use if we are in a rush to deliver something. You know, UPS, FedEx, PureLator, Air Canada Cargo, Lufthansa Cargo.

Well, the Wall Street Journal talked to all these people and said, how are you getting ready for this? Are you ready? Have they warned you to get ready? Well, they are getting ready, big time. And they have been for some time. So the Wall Street Journal, let me read a couple of chunks out of it. Elaine Chen wrote this piece. Logistics providers are building giant cold storage facilities, or what they're calling freezer farms,

and lining up equipment and transportation capacity as they gear up for the rapid delivery of millions of doses of potential coronavirus vaccines around the world. Wes Wheeler, he's the president of the health care division at UPS, that's what he says. The challenge for us will be to be on our ready at any moment to ship from one place to another. That's why they got all these freezer farms. Drug makers have been racing to build supply chains for their coronavirus vaccine candidates, finding manufacturing sites and ordering specialized production equipment.

As some drugs advance to final stage clinical trials, logistics providers are making preparations to deliver them quickly and securely. FedEx. Richard Smith at FedEx. Richard Smith at FedEx, he's been telling the different vaccine makers, as soon as you know, we need to know. We're building, we're prepping, we're getting ready, but we need to know as soon as you know. Because it's not like, oh, yeah, I got a million vials of vaccine.

Come on over, pick it up, throw it in the back of the truck, and drive it off to the next place. That's not the way it works, not surprisingly. Drug makers with vaccines and final stage reading again from the Wall Street Journal. Drug makers with vaccines in final stage clinical trials expect their products to require strict temperature controls. Moderna Inc. said it expects its vaccine to require minus 20 degrees Celsius storage.

Pfizer said the vaccine it's developing with German partner BioNTech SE will probably have to be stored at minus 70 degrees Celsius, plus or minus 10 degrees. AstraZeneca, one of the other leading players in all this, is not talking. They're not telling us what they're freezing their stuff at. So UPS is lining up rows of freezer units, packed together in what the company calls freezer farms for vaccines requiring minus 80 degrees celsius they've got these freezer farms in two places UPS like it covers the world and if you've ever watched how or read about how these

these you know fast delivery operations work, they use a couple of centralized places where everything flies into and then flies out of to more specific areas. So UPS has two of these that are ready as freezer farms. One's in Louisville, Kentucky. The other's in Louisville, Kentucky. The other's in Venlo in the Netherlands

near the Delivery Giants Global Air Hubs. Man, I'm in trouble talking today. So, Louisville, Kentucky and Venlo in the Netherlands are two of the major

UPS hubs. So everything sort of goes in Europe, everything goes through the Netherlands area. In the States or Canada, it goes through Louisville. In many cases, you'll see, you know, like you're delivering something, say, from Winnipeg to Toronto, it goes through Louisville. And that's no different places, but FedEx, Pure Later, that's how they operate. Lufthansa Cargo, all right? The great German airline, Lufthansa.

The cargo arm of Lufthansa sped up construction of two pharmaceutical storage facilities at Chicago's O'Hare International Airport and at Munich Airport. So those are two of its hubs, in part to be ready for a vaccine. And same thing with Air France cargo, its hubs. So you get the picture. I'm deep in the weeds here now, so I won't go any further. But it's a whole other thing that's going on in preparation for a vaccine. It's one thing to have discovered one. It's another thing to get shot up in the arm or wherever they're going to stick the needle in you. It's another thing to get it from that production plant to your doctor's office or to the drugstore to wherever that you'll be getting the vaccine.

And that all has to be ready. You know, everything's got to be in place for when this may be ready. And it's still a big may. And so on the part of these private companies, this is a big expenditure one assumes that they're making, assuming that there's going to be a vaccine and it's going to be very soon. What if it isn't for five or ten years, which some of the early predictions suggested it

could be as long as, and maybe it still could be as long as if these various phase three tests that are going on right now don't work out. Well, let's hope they do. All right. Here's another story. I got an interest out of today. And I guess this should come as no surprise. And it's the difficulties that some of the big retailers are having

as a result of COVID and as a result of sales issues and as a result of the changing nature of the way people will shop. Now, there was already a move away from mall shopping, even before COVID, but it's very much at play now. And some of the big retailers in the States, and one assumes in Canada too, are looking at options. And this story, that was on the CNBC website, is focused on two well-known names in the retail business,

Macy's and Bloomingdale's. So what are they doing? They, in fact, are testing out right now kind of pop-up stores. In a way, they're pop-up stores. I mean, technically pop-up stores that sort of go up, could be up for a month, and then they pop down and pop up somewhere else. But what Macy's and Bloomingdale's are doing

is they're actually looking at smaller shops outside of malls, and they're testing it right now to see whether or not consumers are more likely to shop at these smaller places than at the larger ones that are so well-known to those of us who have shopped for decades. And we see them in our country too. But, you know, things change. Remember Eaton's?

Remember Simpson's? Look at the bay established in some of the great buildings in major cities from right across the country. Will they still be standing 10 years from now, five years from now, one year from now? Or will they be watching closely at what's happening

with Macy's and with Bloomingdale's? I mean, obviously, they're involved in the states too, places like the Bay. They're seeing what's happening there, and they must very. They're seeing what's happening there and they must very well

be aware of what's happening here, obviously. And how seriously are they looking at doing the same thing? The smaller store, far away from malls, but strategically located in the different parts of

cities across the country. More in the sort of changing nature of our world as a result of COVID-19. All right, a shorter than normal, not much, not by much, but shorter than normal Bridge Daily today. As we prep for your day, right? The weekend special comes your way Fridays, tomorrow. Your questions, your thoughts, your comments. Don't be shy, send them in.

TheMansbridgePodcast at gmail.com. The Mansbridge Podcast at gmail.com. And I'll pick a few to go with for tomorrow as we prep for another holiday weekend. Boy, we've had a few of those over the last almost six months now, week 25. We're in September. You know, I've not wanted to say that all week because September, well, September means, you know, we're approaching the end of summer. And aside from the pandemic, if you can say aside from it,

it's not been a bad summer weather-wise. And it's not a bad summer right now. So if you get a chance, enjoy it. Coming along in the next few weeks, we start to see the colors change. And we head closer to winter. And we head closer to the time that all this thing started, earlier this year.

Ah, but don't lose your optimism. We are going to get through this. And we'll remember those who helped us get through it, and we'll remember those, sadly, who were unable to get through it. All right, enough said for this day. I'm Peter Mansbridge. Thanks so much for listening to The Bridge Daily. We'll talk to you again in 24 hours.