The Bridge with Peter Mansbridge - What If Putin Wins? What If He Loses?

Episode Date: March 21, 2023

Brian Stewart takes his hand at war gaming one of your questions.  A "what if" question.  What if Russia wins, what happens then?  What if Ukraine wins, what then?  The questions are easy but the answers are much more challenging.  Also today some thoughts on climate change on the heels of a blistering report from some of the world's leading scientists.  

And hello there, Peter Mansbridge here. You are just moments away from the latest episode of The Bridge. What if Putin wins? What if Putin loses? It's a special day here on A Bridge, Peter Mansbridge here. Yes, we've been telling you we're going to do this today with Brian Stewart. It was one of your ideas. Think through what it would mean if Russia wins. Think through what it would mean if Russia loses. What would the world be like after that?

Well, we're going to throw that at Brian Stewart today, see what he has to say. But first, a couple of words about something completely different. Climate change. You know, every once in a while I'll get a letter saying, why don't you do a regular weekly feature on climate change? Where we are, what we've accomplished, what we're working at, what the scientists say. Well, you know, I've been working for the last, I don't know,

20 years on climate change stories from all over the world, literally all over the world. And, you know, sure, dealing with the scientists, but trying to deal firsthand on the ground with the way some places are adapting, other places are not at all, given the change in the climate. So I've done lots of different programs. And here on the bridge, we touched on climate change more than a few times. Here's my concern about trying to do a weekly, you know, some kind of regular climate change story or feature or segment. And that concern is based around this, that nothing is changing in spite of all the warnings.

We got another one yesterday. And I'm looking at the front page of the Guardian's coverage of the report from the UN yesterday on climate change. What's the headline say? Scientists deliver final warning on climate crisis. Act now or it's too late. Final warning. You know, you couldn't be more stark than that, right?

You're saying that the planet is going to change forever. There's going to be irrevocable damage to the world. We could be destroying the planet in the way we're living. And the way we talk about climate change and have done for years now, we give various warnings and now a final warning, at least from this group. And what's changing?

What's really changing? How are any of us really changing the way we live? And I include myself in that. I'm still driving a gasoline-powered car. I still do a fair amount of international travel and domestic travel, and almost always by air. So I know what the scientists are telling me, and I've adapted in some ways in my life,

but not on some of those key areas that they say have to change. So who are these latest group? It's the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the IPCC. It's made up of the world's leading climate scientists. And this is their kind of final part of a mammoth sixth assessment report that they released just yesterday. It's a comprehensive review. This is what they claim, a comprehensive review of human knowledge of the climate crisis.

Hundreds of scientists spent eight years to compile and run, you know, thousands of pages of data and charts and you name it. But all of that boils down, excuse of that boils down to one message. Act now or it's going to be too late. Act now or we are going to constantly be living in a world of floods, storms, forest fires, you name it. That's the world we're charting for ourself charting for our future generations

for our kids and for our grandkids unless we act now so that's my challenge is to find a way of telling this story which isn't constantly week after week saying, no, the world's going to end. Act now. This is the final chance.

It's got to be more constructive than that. And I just want to talk to week after week, you know, various scientists or experts on climate to hear the same thing. I've done that story. I've done it for years and years. And the issue is, what's the impact it's having? The change is minuscule, if at all. Governments, progressive governments can't

seem to get the things done. There's still a resistance. There are still theories that it's all bogus. I don't believe that. But I know some people do. We're up against that. I'm not going to have those debates. I stopped giving those debates time years ago. So that's where we are in climate change. Am I saying we're never going to talk about climate change? No, that's not what I'm saying.

I'm just giving you some sense of the frustration of trying to find the way. It's not going to be a weekly segment. This isn't, you know, it's not like the pandemic, which is a situation where we had a weekly segment and we knew that it was going to end at some point and we were updating constantly on what was being done. It's not like the Ukraine war. That will too end at some point.

It has gone on longer than we thought. There's no doubt about that. But this segment has been extremely well received. So I'm going to think through the climate change thing. For those who've written, and I'll tell you, there haven't been a lot who've written asking for a regular segment on climate change, but there have been some, and they're well thought out letters. So I'm looking. I'm looking for a way. Every time something comes out like yesterday's report, final warning,

act now or it's too late. Well, you want to try and find what that way is. All right? So we'll do that. All right, let me get to the topic at hand. And that's, you know, it's Tuesday. It's a Brian Stewart day. It's Ukraine day. So let's get right at it. I want you to know this has been a

challenging, we thought when we first came up with the idea last week, let's do a sort of what if program. What if Russia wins? What if Russia loses? We thought, okay, that's not going to be that hard. We'll just put our thinking caps on, and Brian especially will go through this. But it is a challenging request to put somebody through this, much more so than we thought at first. And so if you hear us kind of stumbling and bumbling through parts of this, it's because it is not easy to think this through. There are all kinds of different levels to this story.

It's not as simple as, well, it's this. If Russia wins, it's this. If Ukraine wins, it's more challenging than that. Anyway, enough from me. Let's get at it. Here's our weekly conversation with Brian Stewart. All right, Brian, I want to start by, before we get to the two big questions, I want to talk a little bit about Putin in this last week

because it's been interesting to watch him. A week ago, he gets indicted by the International Criminal Court. Not a good day then within a couple of days he's in a looking like a very well-fit well-clothed commando type outfit that he's wearing and he's in Mariupol for his first time he's inside Ukraine and then a later, he's back in Moscow welcoming President Xi from China. So a really bad day last week, followed by two good days this week. How are we supposed to look at Putin just based on this past week? It's been quite a mix as we were talking about about a week ago. He hasn't been looking well late even. His morale has been really down. I think the

International Criminal Court indictment really was a slap across his face that he's got to stop hiding out in the Kremlin so much. He's got to be more active. And he almost came over to the dare saying, okay, we'll take it on. And I think the trip to Mariupol was to show several things. By the way, I also think he's getting a lot of word from inside the Kremlin saying, you've got to get out and show yourself more. You've got to be seen as vigorous, particularly before the Chinese leader arrives. So he goes to Mariupol. He's got several messages. I'm fit. I'm ready. And if anybody thinks this is that car around the town a bit, a very much

destroyed town, by the way. The pictures don't really show the ruin. And then he rushes back to Moscow for his meeting with Xi, which is really to show I'm here, I'm big on stage, and I'm the leader of a superpower. And don't let anyone mistake that. I think those are all the messages rolled in there. So bottom line, if anybody was doubting he was in control, these past couple of days are supposed to show that he's very much in control or still in control. Very much.

He wants to make that image. Now, we don't know whether that'll last very long or how many months or even weeks. But at the moment, as you say, he's having a few good days, and it's going to be really interesting to see these mediums and what comes out of them in terms of understandings. He may be hearing bad stuff in private. We don't know.

He may be hearing medium stuff or even good stuff. We just don't know. All right. Let's move to the idea that we had today. And a reminder that it was prompted by listeners who said they wanted your take on what would happen if Russia wins, what would happen if Ukraine wins. No easy early sight in hand right now for when this war could end.

But nevertheless, those are kind of two obvious questions. What would happen depending on which side won? So let's start off with the what if Putin wins? Or in other words, what if Russia wins? What do you see unfolding in that situation? Well, you know, I'll take a stab at it, but talk about the $64,000 question, people all over the world are trying to figure out how we can put together some end of the warrior. I think the first qualification you have to make is, are we talking about small victory or a big victory? Because there's a big difference between the two.

Let's take the Russia case, small victory first. Say it holds on to much of the territory, maybe a little bit more of that territory it captured in the invasion and also on to Crimea. And it's able to see Western support for Ukraine start to fade as the war goes on longer and longer. There were fears, rise of a U.S. change of leadership in the election of 24. Ukraine's starting to say, we just, you know, we can't carry this much longer. We've got our own fatigue. We've got to do some kind of agreement. And there is a peace negotiation with ends up with Russia pretty much holding what they had at the beginning of the invasion with a bit more added to it. Some of that 18% they now hold. That will be treated as a huge triumph in Moscow. You can be sure Putin will be out.

There'll probably be rock concerts again. There'll be euphoria in the air. That tends not to last too long, because too many questions after war start to get answered. And I don't think in Russia, it's going to last very long indeed. Because remember, you know, Russia's coming out of this war with a pyrrhic victory, if it's small, if it's really anything small. They've got a battered economy, battered military, battered reputation around the world, and battered alliances. It has a big friend in China, India, but after that, it falls off to some weird and weird, wonderful, strange countries like Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, and Nicaragua, it's not a big batting order, to say the least.

And I think a lot of rebuilding of diplomatic connections and that is going to have to take place. There's going to be a lot of angry voices coming back. First of all, you're going to have that right-wing pro-military, pro-war faction saying, this is it. This is all we get for that year and a half or two years of war. All those dead, 1,800 tanks or whatever destroyed, that's all you can show for it. There's going to have a lot of veterans coming back from the war saying to their local communities, you won't believe the mess that was over there. We didn't have proper food. We had to loot. The officers were terrible. We were used as cannon fodder. Those voices are going to be spreading around society. War victims are coming home with their wounds. For the last years, that's going to be a big drain on health services that are already

very weak in very many areas. And you have the question of hundreds of thousands of Russians who fled abroad to avoid the war. Are they going to come home or are they going to stay abroad? They're very much, many of them are the best and the brightest, remember, technicians and you create, you know, all manner of computer experts all of the great many of those have fled abroad so Russia's going to have to you know they estimate as I say take five to ten years to kind of rebuild that military uh the alliances are going to be big work and the big questions uh that that kind of level of victory is what will they be able to force Ukraine to do? And I'm betting as a small victory, they won't be able to force it to do

much. Ukraine will have the military weapons that the West has given it. Some will continue to give it more. And I don't think Ukraine will agree upon, it will agree upon perhaps not to join NATO. I think that's going to be in the wind for sure. But it will continue to try and avoid the European Union. I don't think it will disarm, demilitarize, as Russia calls it. I think it will maintain the time it has on its hands to really dig those long defenses and put them in much stronger shape than they are right now. And I think that will be the outcome of the small war. A big war.

Sorry, go ahead. No, that's what I was going to say. a big war victory for Russia, because obviously some of those things you point out for the small victory are still going to be an issue for, you know, even with a big victory in terms of the impact it's going to have on Russia. But overall, tell me about a big victory for Russia and what would happen as a result of it.

A big victory would be they would be able to break out from where they are right now and they're not going to take all of Ukraine that was not even believed before the war people were saying no no Ukraine's a bit larger than France for heaven's sakes Russia doesn't have the military to occupy it and I think that's going to be the case they won't have the military to occupy it they might get a across the denepa river to the west more they'll take some more land and i think they will have ukraine in a position where it'll be so battered it'll it'll have to make major negotiations and say okay we agree certainly not

nato we may not even join the eu we want to have some defense, of course, because in case we have our own internal feuds, and we want to have economic relations with the West, which will continue. And I think that's going to be the big victory, and that will get a much more euphoric reception in Russia. But I still think Russia's got to take many, many years to rebuild that military and its economy and its economic alliances. I think sanctions will likely continue. At least some will, some of them.

And I think it's, you know, it's got a big problem with how it sells its oil and fuel and the rest of it to the West, is you know basically trying to reduce that to now 40 percentage okay here's the question that I have on the Russian victory is what does the how does the rest of the world or the rest of the West uh react to this because they put everything into araine victory they've supplied it with arms weapons tanks some aircraft uh you know a lot of money and they suddenly realize ukraine is lost russia wins what happens with the west well I think you'll have a mixed reaction.

I think some Western countries will continue to support Ukraine with arms, if it can get arms across, with money, certainly, because Ukraine's got a big problem with rebuilding itself and its military. But I think there'll be shock in the West. You know, they'll strengthen themselves considerably, though. We have to remember that, that Finland is certainly joining NATO, and it looks like Sweden will in time, probably next summer. It has grown itself very much stronger than it was.

Western arms are, you know, the United States is putting more arms into Europe. It's, there's a huge big Western, you know, Western world boost of military spending, ammunition, the rest of it. They've got a lot of money pouring in. So I think the West is much, much stronger. It doesn't really fear. This is a very good question because it doesn't fear Russia quite as much as it did. Look at what Russia faced, you know, in Ukraine. Basically, it was a shower. I mean, it really didn't perform very well.

And it maybe takes two years to build itself in strength to make a Ukraine uh triangle but uh the West is a very big much bigger size than the Ukraine is Poland is in arming itself enormously uh Poland and Ukraine there are 80 million strong and combined uh population um I just don't know. I think the West will be very, very strong and it'll be generally united. The answer surprises me in a sense, because here they supported a war that in this scenario, they lost, right? Ukraine loses, Russia wins. And yet you don't think the West is going to be, quite frankly, scared as a result? No, I don't think it is going to be scared. I mean, obviously, Russia has nuclear weapons, and it's got cruiser with missiles and the rest of it. But so does the West have nuclear weapons,

and so does they have cruisers and with missiles ready to fire. And there's no way that Russia, with an economy of the size of Canada's, with all these problems it's got, can take on NATO. There's just no way at all. And the danger might be the West saying, look, really, Russia took an awful lot to beat Ukraine. I don't think it's got any real strength to take on NATO. And they start to lose kind of interest in it and fade away a bit. But they'll be condemning Moscow enormously. The White House, I think, will be as far as there's a democratic leadership. And I think there'll be a lot of complaints around the world about Russia. And we'll see how things develop from that point.

Do you think they'd pursue the International Criminal Court indictment on Putin? I don't. I think they probably won't. I think there's probably a couple of years before Putin leaves office. It will stay in Russia. I don't think they'll pursue it,

but they'll keep it in their back pocket, ready to snap out anytime he's overthrown and kicked out of the country, or there's a new change of rule leadership in Moscow, basically. And we'll see what happens after that. But he's going to be worried a bit as years pass and years go by. All right, we're going to switch focus now to the other possible outcome. But first, this quick break. And welcome back. You're listening to The Bridge,

the Tuesday episode with Brian Stewart. I'm Peter Mansbridge. You're listening on Sirius XM, Channel 167, Canada Talks, or on your favorite podcast platform. All right. Scenario number two. And this is the one that one assumes most people in the West, in Canada, the United States, the UK, France, Germany, etc., etc. The list goes on, are hoping for. And that scenario is Ukraine wins an all-out fight with Russia. What happens next? Brian.

Oh, okay. Once again, big or small. Small. Can Ukraine punch through Russian lines, take much of the Donbass, Zakaria, and even Kherson back, but not Crimea. And we'll have to settle for that. We'll have to settle for parts of still-occupied Ukraine. And that will be, even there, an enormous victory seen by the outside world. Ukraine will be hailed as a heroic nation by a great deal of the world, admired by its bravery, leadership, military adaptability, and a future coming nation even in Central Europe. Big problems will be enormous,

but if there's a big victory, then you're going to have, you know, not just punching through one or two lines, but actually threaten Crimea and maybe even getting into Crimea, seeing a complete shambles in Moscow, an uprising of the right wing pro-military war, possibly Putin overcome, the leadership of the Kremlin beginning to crash around. And it's going to have big problems, though. I mean, it's going to be facing what kind of negotiation it carries on with Russia. While at the same time, it's really enormous problems. Russia will be on the border, threatening action, weak action. The kind of Western support, whether we continue or not, the fighting stops, possibly a new American administration in two years and the building of the Republic sorry the building of the military it's got a sort of a very weary war worn military

with a lot of damage rebuilding of society and economy a need to sort of reinstate five to eight million Ukrainians who've been upheaven, the kind of rebuilding of economy and society of hundreds of billions of dollars running up to possibly trillions of dollars, and a kind of understanding of what the world needs to get is a kind of de-stressing of Central Europe. An understanding with Ukraine, an understanding with shaken Russia, that we can't have another example of that imperial clash on the front particularly with a stronger nato with finland and sweden and the large nato you know armaments pouring in from the western world there's going to have to be some kind of peace negotiation which will have something to offer the world more than, say, Korea with, you know, fighting North Korea against South Korea. But remember, within two years, South Korea was building itself up to, you know, a thriving country. And it's a thriving country, despite all the great tension.

Israel, surrounded by enemies on all corners, continues to prosper and thrive. So, I mean, it's so difficult with sand flowing through our fingernails and fingers, trying to imagine what the war will be like if Ukraine wins, whether it's small or big. It's sort of, what's russia going to be shocked by uh what's russia going to come back at the at the border saying uh we'll be back every couple you know a couple years time we'll be fighting finn again and um is will russia be throwing threats of nuclear weapons for instance in the air all of that has to throw into the mix again so i don't know where to begin it's it's just a mix of you know small and big with russia small

and big with ukrainian sorry to stumble over ukraine so much i just trying to think about it you know this large country battered weary rave, all of it coming together just about in a couple of weeks or months or whatever to try and crash across Russian lines of defensive and then running for a small or a big victory. Everything is going to be up in the air. And wow, it's going to be something yeah you know i share your um your puzzlement about how to handle that question because it's in some ways for you know the u.s and the uk and canada and the others who have so supported ukraine in this it's almost problematic for them if ukraine wins a big victory. They always said at the beginning of this that they didn't want a crippled Russia.

They may end up with a crippled Russia. That's a very good point. And everything that could mean. And also, at the same time, they have this really strong, new, powerful, highly respected country in that part of the world, in Ukraine, that is going to want to throw its weight around a little bit now too. They're going to be armed to the teeth like no other country in that area, assuming they don't expand all their weapons in this. So it's ironic in a sense that it's almost more problematic if Ukraine wins. Absolutely.

And I think we discussed that, well, you know, months ago, 10 months or 11 months ago or nine, I forget which. Anyways, from the very beginning, the west did not want to destroy russia it was too dangerous to destroy russia by a big ukraine victory uh and the weakening of the putin administration what have you so at the same time they're saying well you know it's not the same strong russia that we thought we were going to face. It's incomparably weaker. So what do you do then? You know, it's, my own view is it's going to be a small victory for Ukraine. I think it will be able to punch across the lines. It will

take some gains, but I think you'll have still Crimea in Russian hands, sorry, Crimea, yes, in Russian hands, and most of the territory that Russia captured beginning with that invasion will still be there in Russian hands. But it will be to the world a great picture of heroic resistance and also innovative skill with military skill, economic skill, the will of the people, the bravery, that will be the big victory. Really, even if it's a small victory, it's going to be seen as a very big victory. Okay. You know what? We have time for a totally different subject, but one actually that kind of relates to what we're, in some ways, to what we're time for for a totally different uh subject but one actually that kind of relates to what we're in some ways to what we're witnessing now and and that is it's been 20 years i i can't

believe that it's been 20 years since the uh the invasion by the americans of iraq and the toppling of saddam hussein um i i know you've been, because you were there, you covered this conflict in a big way, that you've been called upon in the last little while to talk about this anniversary, if you will, and what it means, especially in what it means in relationship to what we're witnessing now in the world. So give us your take on that,

on this 20th year since the invasion of Iraq by the Americans. Well, you know, the thing that really strikes me the most was in both the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the American invasion of Iraq, in both cases, we saw certain similarities. We saw a weak leadership at that time, ill-prepared by intelligence, a force smaller than what they really needed to invade that country. They didn't have a clear plan for once they got into that country. And they never quite recovered from the confusion of the war up to that point. We don't know how long it's going to go. But there was a similarity in dealing with a kind of, you know, mystic vision of what the superpower could do. It could take back in Russian terms, the basic parts of the imperial holdings. In Iraq, the Americans could make a democracy out of a horrible dictatorship.

And it didn't work and it hasn't worked in 20 years, really. So, I mean, there's a similarity there of misjudgment, a very serious misjudgment, lack of planning. And it took much more. We don't know how long it's going to go on the Russian side. But, boy, on the American side, it cost up to about $2 trillion, it's estimated. Hundreds of thousands of dead, 4,500 Americans dead. Syria collapses. Afghanistan is part of the fall. Libya is part of the fall, and on it goes like that. Terrorism grows and expands.

So you have a terrible mess beginning at the, well, beginning at the beginning, that they have badly prepared war planning, a weak message that didn't quite get across, and an incomprehension of the enemy both sides were facing. They just didn't understand, and that's what led to the confusion. Lack of planning, and as you say, lack of understanding. I can remember in those first days of the Iraq War, was it Donald Rumsfeld or one of those in the Bush junior cabinet saying, they're going to welcome us with open arms, throwing flowers at us as we marched through the streets of Baghdad.

Yeah, right. Those weren't flowers they were throwing. And it turned into one of the ugliest civil wars of that time, which resulted in all the deaths you were talking about, mainly of, you know, Iraqi civilians, but thousands of American dead as well. So that combination of a lack of planning and a lack of understanding of who you're dealing with. Very much so. And I think, you know, it was amazingly short-lived, the belief of the Americans that they could get into Baghdad

and there would be flowers flying and kisses flowing and all that kind of stuff. It would be like Paris, 1944. And instead, what we got within weeks was a disillusioned population in the big cities saying, wait a minute, nothing's working here. Because the Americans did the unbelievable. They started to lay off the civil servants at the time and throw them out of work. They took the military and, first of all, the teachers as well. They got rid of most of the teachers. They took the military and they basically told them all to go home and they were fired and don't come back. And they went all right, but they went with weapons in their hands. And so you had a large body of Iraqi military as well,

unemployed, fed up, not sure what on earth was happening, and complete chaos that just grew into more and more and more chaos. So it took basically a year before the Americans were able to even grasp hold of the decay at that stage. And they were able to kind of wrestle it until 2011. And then they had to come back a few years later and on it went. And it just turned into a horror show for the Americans and of course, the British as well, who are deeply pained by their own losses in that war and their own fiasco in that war, I'm afraid to say. And for all the heat he took at the time from, you know, across the board, not just the opposition, but the media as well,

Jean Chrétien kept Canada out of all that. He did. He did, and he kept small amounts of Canadians sort of involved around this system. What they did was they sort of built their own position in Afghanistan saying, we're doing a lot of good here. We're really working hard to make it work for Canada. And unfortunately, Canada also sank in a way into a lot of problems

and it didn't come out quite right. And basically, it was a real losing wicket for Canada for many years afterwards. All right. Well, that's the 21st century summed up in a few comments. I hate to keep it so short as that, but, you know, really, a very dispiriting period, one has to feel for a lot of people in this. All right, sir. As always, Brian, thanks so much for that.

We'll talk to you again in a week or so when we get back at the particulars that are happening in Ukraine and in Russia. Thanks for this, Brian. Okay, great. Thanks a lot. You know, one of the things that that whole conversation pointed out, the lesson in that conversation is it's a lot easier to look back at something that happened and you know the outcome and you can sort of assess whether things were worth it on a number of fronts it's a lot easier to do that than it is to look forward project your skills at trying to determine what would happen on certain outcomes of a conflict like we're watching in ukraine um and i you know i applaud brian for giving it as

much thought as he did in the last week um and and I hope it spurred you on to thinking as well. I'm sure there's no doubt I'm going to receive some letters from people who either agreed with the conclusions we came to or would like to see certain other areas discussed as well. The Mansbridge Podcast at gmail.com, the Mansbridge podcast at gmail.com is where you write. And Thursdays is your turn where you have the opportunity, if your letters are picked, to have your say on the bridge. Okay, we're almost out of time for this day. But there is one other thing I wanted to mark. I've been meaning to do this for the

last few days. But, you know, we're in, I guess we're just kind of past the Ides of March. But the middle of March has any number of different things that we reflect on every year. Here's one that doesn't come up often. It's 10 years. It was 10 years last week since Pope Francis became Pope. I remember being in Rome at that time, covering the, you know, looking for the puffs of smoke coming out the Vatican chimney to determine whether the cardinals had chosen a new Pope. He's a pretty, he was a pretty remarkable guy then when he became Pope.

He was in his mid-70s at that time, and he was kind of seen in some ways as a caretaker Pope while they waited for a new generation. First South American Pope, but somebody who has gained quite the following around the world since he became pope. There's always conflict within the Catholic Church and conflict about it from its members and from those disgruntled members who have left the church.

But Francis has tried to hold things together over his 10 years in office. He's 86 now. And think about that for a moment because, you know, there is not a country in the world where the average age is higher than 85. So he's already in that extended period of life that you never know what's going to happen in the days ahead. But he's 86. So what does 86 mean?

Well, for starters, just given that fact I gave you, it's the age beyond the realm of what we'll ever experience. 86 is the age of people, and I'm reading this from, where am I reading this from? Oh, it's in the Washington Post. 86 is the age of people who lived their childhoods without television. You know, I'm just 74 and my early childhood was without television. We didn't have a TV. And I remember the day in the late 50s, growing up in Ottawa when we got our first television, and it was like a huge deal. Neighbors came.

Neighbors who didn't have televisions came to watch this box, black and white. Anyway, childhoods without televisions. The age of people who remember World War II. It's the age of actors Robert Redford. Who knew? Robert Redford's 86. So is Vanessa Redgrave. It's the would-be age of the late John McCain. He'd have been 86 this year if he'd lived. Same with Will Chamberlain, Yves Saint Laurent.

It's the age President Biden would be at the end of a possible second term. So, you know, Pope Francis is a little more fragile than he was 10 years ago. I mean, he usually uses a wheelchair. He has bad knees, but he usually uses a wheelchair. He has bad knees. But he still travels the world. He goes to conflict-torn countries, gives speeches to full stadiums. And recently, amid some of the speculation about whether he would be like his predecessor and step down, retire, he said he feels no reason to give up the job

anytime soon. So there you go. At 86, he can be fragile. He can be unforgiving. He's had to significantly slow his pace. But he's there to significantly slow his pace, but he's there at 86, and we should all be so lucky, right? Okay, that's going to wrap it up for this day.

Tomorrow, Wednesday, Smoke, Mirrors, and the Truth with Bruce Anderson. Boy, the stuff never stops happening in Ottawa, and there are things planned for this day, which I'm sure we'll want to comment on tomorrow, on smoke. So join us then. We're also available on Wednesdays, as we are on Fridays, on our YouTube channel.

So you can watch the bridge in production, as we say. It's not that involved. Well, let me tell you. Anyway, that's it for this day. I'm Peter Mansbridge. Thanks so much for joining us these past 45, 50 minutes. It's been a treat, as it always is, to talk with you. We'll be back in 24 hours.