The Bridge with Peter Mansbridge - When Is A Ceasefire Actually a Cease Fire?

Episode Date: May 19, 2026

In the past week, there were ceasefires announced in Russia/Ukraine, Iran and Lebanon. But did that stop the fighting in any of those locations? Dr. Janice Stein from the Munk School at the University of Toronto joins us for her weekly conversation about our changing world. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

And hello there, Peter Mansbridge here. You're just moments away from the latest episode of The Bridge. It's Dr. Janice Stein on a Tuesday. And the topic, ceasefires. Do they actually mean anything anymore? That's coming. Right up. And welcome to a new week here on the Bridge, and it's Tuesday,

because we all enjoyed a long weekend. I hope you enjoyed yours. I hope the weather was nice for you. It's supposed to be, you know, that first big, long weekend in the spring. It's when people who are lucky enough to have a cottage or access to a lake, they go there. They fight the flies and the mosquitoes, and they go there for the first big weekend of the spring. Well, if that was you, hope you had a good time. Hope you and your family had a great time.

Coming up in a few minutes will be Dr. Janice Stein, usually on a Monday, but today, for this week, she's on Tuesday. And tomorrow, that means what would have been, the reporter's notebook will be tomorrow. It will be Wednesday. There'll be no end bit special this week. And on the reporter's notebook tomorrow, Rob Russo, Althea is away.

So Kathleen Petty from Calgary is going to join us. You know, she has a great podcast West of Center, which gives you a real kind of inside feeling on what's happening in Western Canada. and Kathleen's in Calgary and it's a long-time friend and colleague of not only me, but the show and of Robb, so it'll be great to talk to her tomorrow because there's lots going on, especially so in Alberta.

But this week we'll be talking to Janice in a couple of moments' time. But the other thing we have to do, because we've only got a day to do it, and that is give you some indication of what we're going to do, with our question of the week, right? And I, we're going to try something really different here. Okay, this is going to be, we're actually going to have fun with this. We've dealt with some really heavy topics in the question of the week lately. This is going to be more of a kind of, well, in some ways, a fun, fun program to do.

So I hope you're in the mood to enjoy writing some answers on this topic. The topic is, well, let me put it this way. You know, I've been lucky enough over my time to interview a lot of different people, politicians, world leaders, celebrities of different kinds, sports figures. And some of my favorite interviews in that sort of jock in me have been. being with people like Sidney Crosby, or Bobby Orr, Wayne Gretzky, you know. And I always remember, like, you know, Bobby Orr told me that his big superstition was socks.

And it was based on the fact that the first time he went to the rink to play in an organized game and he took his bag of hockey gear with him, he forgot socks. not the kind of hockey socks that you put the pads inside, but sock socks. He forgot them. So he didn't wear them. And he thought, this is great.

It feels fantastic. And so he never wore socks again. It became kind of a superstition. That's Bob Yor. Sidney Crosby, his big superstition, was he never talked to his mom on the day of a game. And I believe he still doesn't. They talked to after the game or the next morning,

but not the day of the game. Because somehow that was bad luck. So we all have superstitions, right? We all do certain things. I know I do. I have superstitions about, you know, on a big show. I go through a kind of process on the day of a big show. I'll keep it a secret.

Maybe I'll tell you on Thursday when we do your turn. But here's, so this is the question. What's your superstition? Do you have a superstition? Why do you have one? Why do you not have one? Do you think it's all crazy or do you think actually, you know, it helps you? With whatever challenge you may be going through,

maybe a game, maybe a job, and maybe home. life, it may be any number of different things. So that's what I want to hear from you. Okay, what's your superstition? As I said, this is light, this is light and easy. We're not dealing with the big issues of the day here this week. We're going to take it in a way a week off. So there's your question.

What's your superstition? Tell us about it. In less or fewer than 75 words, right? Fewer than 75 words. words, have your answer in and be listening closely here by 3 p.m. Eastern time tomorrow. We're in an early week this week, okay? 3 p.m. Eastern time tomorrow, Wednesday. Okay, you got that? Include your name and the location you're writing from.

And finally, you send it to the Mansbridge Podcast at gmail.com. Those are the five conditions. you meet them all, then you have a chance of getting on the program. After that, it becomes, well, how interesting what you have to say is. So we're looking forward to your answers on that question about superstitions. Okay? Great.

You got it. I know some of you are sitting there right now. You're writing it down. But you don't want to miss this. This is another great conversation with, Dr. Janice Stein from the Monk School at the University of Toronto. We'd like to hear from her usually on Mondays. And it's sort of part of my, part of what I say every week is,

if it's Monday, it must be Dr. Janice Stein. So I'll have to be careful of that. Try to remember that this is Tuesday. All right, you ready to go? Let's cure up. Here she is, Dr. Janice Stein, right here on the bridge. So Janice, I've always been wary, and you have been too over the years when we talk about ceasefires, because it's always something that seems to get in a way of a ceasefire.

And here we have three ones that we've been watching very carefully. You have the ceasefire in Iran. You have the ceasefire in Ukraine for a couple of days last week. And then you have the ceasefire in Lebanon. None of them really work, right? I mean, what do we say about them? How do we look? at the fact that we're ceasefires and the three major conflicts we've been watching and nothing

really happened. So you're right. These are three really fragile ceasefires. And bottom line, Peter, why is that? Because there's no agreement on the fundamental issues that are dividing both sides and both these. There's no agreement on Russia's part about really. Anything that allows Ukraine to survive.

They're just not in any meaningful. If they, you know, they would have to be driven to that, forced to that, because they couldn't afford to do anything else. There's no agreement between Iran and the United States, even over nuclear weapons. And there's certainly no agreement between Iran and Israel. They are mortal enemies. So, you know, there's no, there is an agreement between Lebanon and Israel.

to disarm Hezbollah, but the Lebanese army has no capacity to do that. So they've agreed on something that one side can't do. And so when do you get to a ceasefire? When the costs of war are just escalating, and they're not getting you closer to any agreement, but you can't agree. So you agree to ceasefire in a hope that negotiations will move somebody forward, or to the side just a little bit

because they really don't want to go back to the fighting. But they're really fragile. That's what you're seeing. And the ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine was three days, you know, for a parade. And then the most ferocious attack came right after on both sides. The Russians, it was their largest attack

and large numbers of civilian casualties in Kiev. and then the Ukrainians understandably responded and there were 12 people killed in and around Moscow so this is no longer a war over there anymore it's here for the Russians I hardly call that a ceasefire it was a three-day pause

it's different a little bit from the others but the others are hanging by a thread you know a stupid you know I think what it was about Russia, Ukraine was the hope was there that maybe they could turn this into something. If they could agree to three days after four years, they could maybe agree to more. But as you say, it hasn't turned out that way. And quite frankly, you know, we talked about last week and a little bit the week before,

the fact that Russia was not doing well in this war all of a sudden, really, over the last few weeks and months. And now a lot of people are talking about that. That Putin has real problems. He's got problems at home. He's got problems like everybody does with inflation. I mean, he's getting a benefit of higher oil prices, but that's not going to be enough to turn around their economic mess that Russia's in. But it's interesting on that front. But all three of them are suffering from this very fact that we could be heading into a worldwide recession, thanks to the Iran War more than anything. But it's going to affect everything. Everybody. Everything and everybody. Yeah. Yeah. There's no question about it.

Look, if we talk numbers for a moment, Peter, you know, not much oil is flowing through the straight or four more. Some is because some have made deals with Iran, frankly, either to pay the fee or their friendly countries to Iran and that oil is getting through. But not much. Maybe, you know, 20% of the world's oil went through if a fifth of that 20% is going through. And there's a really interesting reason, Peter, that we don't talk about it. It's called insurance. It's got nothing to do with what Iran offers somebody.

the guarantee the United States gives that it's going to escort tankers through the street. Insurance companies have to insure these ships. And there's a complicated insurance market, reinsurance market. They take one look at this situation, the Strait of Hormuz. And frankly, what they've said is we're not here. Don't count on us. And so the risk of using that straight, to ship oil is now for the owners, for the companies, through the roof.

And that's why we're not getting much energy. We're this war to end tomorrow, Peter. We would probably see higher prices of oil continue for the next six months for a whole variety of technical problems. LNG is much worse, liquefied natural gas. The fields in Qatar are really badly down. in the Emirates, that's going to be two years or more if it stops tomorrow. Well, there's no question that the inflation in the price of energy, the increase,

it's going to be passed along to consumers. There's no other way. And when you're talking about high, high level of indebtedness in many countries, So the better off countries are really indebted. Their debts are, you know, Britain, Japan, the United States. We're not, we're up there too, although we really are. And to absorb additional costs for the government to subsidize the cost of energy, which is the only thing they can do really now, is for them, for many unaffordable and anyway, inflationary.

It just is. So how we avoid a recession, it's very, very difficult to foresee, frankly. And then look at the other side, which is the poorer countries. Well, they're going to be hammered by the cost of food because of the fertilizer crisis, which is also a byproduct of this war. So for them, it's equally bad. And if there's any kind of pulling back in global markets, they are more exposed and more vulnerable.

So I think the people who are optimistic today are people who believe that the gains in AI productivity are going to overpower all of this. and that's why you're seeing a stock market, which is 40% of the standard and poor index are tech companies. Well, that's all well and good if you can be playing the AI stock market game or benefiting from AI in some fashion. But if you can't eat, which is going to be the situation for many areas in the world as a result of what's going on right now. I mean, you know, that's why, frankly, I think stock markets are living a dream.

When you look at the fundamentals, we are heading towards a global recession, frankly, as all these factors come together and confound each other. So anybody, there's a lot of people who are optimistic, but I'm not one of them. And, you know, Trump must look at what he has wrought. on the world in his own country. I mean, he likes to say, listen, the Strait of Ormoos has nothing to do with us, doesn't impact us, so we don't get any oil from there.

Meanwhile, gasoline is over five bucks a gallon in the United States. And the numbers that came out over the weekend on inflation, so these show these are the worst inflation numbers in the U.S. since Jimmy Carter. Not since Joe Biden, since Jimmy Carter. But God gives you a son's people. you know what he's dealing with then. And to take this to the ground, literally,

this is Memorial Day weekend in the United States. It's Victoria Day weekend in Canada's Memorial Day weekend in the United States. Americans get in their cars. This is their first trip, their first long weekend, when the good weather comes from most of the country. They're going to look at that price of filling up their cars, filling up their tank with gas. There are many of them,

that are not going to go anywhere this weekend, and the reality is going to hit home, Peter. So if you think his support numbers are low, inflation is the biggest cost of loss, electoral loss by governments. Just before we move on, because I want to talk about China after last week's 48-hour trip, before we do that,

Just one thing on the Israel-Lebanon situation. I'm assuming that while these other situations, especially Iran, continue the way they are, there's no pressure on Israel to stop pounding Lebanon. If they were the only one on the landscape where there was conflict, they'd probably be getting enormous pressure to stop. Yeah. You're absolutely right. That as long as the president and his team are all focused on Iran,

there were negotiations led by the White House in the White House between Lebanon and Israel to really to resolve this. But the resolution requires the United States to oppress both governments to do two things. Each have to do something hard, okay? The Lebanese army has to make more than a token effort to disarm Israel. And that, you know, why don't they do it, you might say? Because they're worried that it will cause a civil war, that it will reignite the civil war in Lebanon. It is so hard, Hezbollah is still so strong in comparison to the army, which is really weak.

It doesn't have the capacity to do this. And so these talks are asking the Lebanese army to do something that it really doesn't have the capacity to do. And then the president has to push the Netanyahu government to stop this as they face elections because it looks like that government, that parliament is now going to be dissolved and there will be new elections in September a month early. Push him to stop before the Lebanese army disarms, Hezbollah. Now, just think of that. What's the chances? Exactly. Yeah.

One other thing that we didn't talk about, just to put it on the table for you, how did these worlds come together? We all talk about this trade of Hormuz's what's floating on top of the water, right? The tankers, the ship. But under the water are underwater cables, which connect large parts of Asia to Europe digitally. So all the digital traffic flows through those underwater cables. It's very old-fashioned the Internet. People talk about the cloud.

There was no cloud. It's on the ground or under the water, which a lot of people don't really think of it. Well, this, in the last few days, Iran, you know, officials in Iran have said, well, you know, those cables belong to us. because we now are exercising sovereign rights in the straits and we're going to take ownership of those cables and we're going to monetize it and we're going to charge fees for data

that goes from Europe to Asia. So that AI world that's over there talking about artificial general intelligence is not paying enough attention, Peter, to what's happening, to some of the crucial piping of the digital world, some of which runs under the straight of home moves. That's fascinating.

And it must suggest or should suggest to us that there are other locations in the world that are similar to that and are strategic in their vulnerability. Absolutely, absolutely. And this is, you know, I don't want to take it off on a tangent here, But, you know, military historians have always known about this because where does this start? It starts in the World Wars where one of the first things that was done was cut communication cables under the ground.

You know this, under the water. And that's where that story starts. And that story is just as relevant 115 years later as it was then. It's amazing. So let's keep our eyes open for that. Exactly. Okay, I want to talk about China. We talked about this last week when Trump was going on a trip that had been delayed a couple of months because of the Iran situation.

And we kind of concluded last week suggesting, actually, she's holding all the cards here. And so, you know, keep that in mind as we watch it. Well, not only was he holding all the cards. He looked like he was holding all the cards. Right down to, I don't know whether it's true or not, but it seems to be that they gave for the classic two-shot meeting where they're each sitting in chairs in the Great Hall of the people or somewhere, they gave Trump a smaller chair.

So he looked like this little guy sitting beside President Xi. Was this a humiliating 48 hours for Donald Trump? Well, you know, you look. Look, when I watched the body language, because there was so much tape that was happening, this was not a Donald Trump we see very often, right? Accommodating, smiling, deferential, talking, but what a great visit he had and how wonderful everything he was. This was a president of the United States who went overboard for him. to reset the China-U.S. relationship, there's no question.

Donald Trump, that we have known before he became president, Trump, number one, was the one who put sanctions on the export of chips to China. He doubled down, just think it's a year ago, Peter, 150% tariffs for that period before Xi Jinping called this bluff. But then Xi Jinping called it. all his bluff over rare earth metals. And this is the new relationship now between the United States and China.

No pretense anymore that the United States bigger and more powerful and can push China back into a corner. And you saw a kind of self-satisfied, much more contained, Gigi-Pang. The body language was, I know where we are now. your game is done.

I don't have to make much of an effort. Xi Jinping is still invested in an orderly relationship with the United States because for him, a stable global economy in which China can export still matters. It's still very important. So it's not that this is an aggressive China that is seeking all out confrontation with the United States. I think that's a misread, but it is no longer an aggressive

United States that says, I am the only superpower in the world and you play by my rules and you literally see the rules of the game changing in front of your eyes. I found it absolutely fascinating just to watch the video of those two. There's been some remarkable video

out of China in the last year. I still marvel at that inspection of the various troops and army and navy and what have you by by president g a couple of months ago was a spectacular footage but here was the big moment trump basically saying we're not going to do anything for Taiwan anymore yeah so that that that is the big you know all the rest the deals. Very vague. We've lost your audio there for some reason, Janice. I don't know why.

Okay, there you go. There you're back again. You know, there was not no, there was not much of substance that came out of that summit when you actually look at it. There was very little in the days that have passed since Trump came back home there. There's a few, the soybean deeds. and some agreement to talk about AI, but we don't exactly know when the discussions are going to start and what they're going to talk about. So the big moment, you're absolutely right,

came on the way home in the plane when the reporters asked Donald Trump, well, you know, what about those weapons you promised to Taiwan? And in his fashion, he walked it back on the plane. He said, well, yeah, we talked about it. that, but I'm thinking about that. I don't know if I'm going to do that or not. There you have a sense.

Literally one sentence that undermines, first of all, the United States has a formal agreement with Taiwan. It doesn't have an obligation to come to the defense of Taiwan if it's attacked. It's not a NATO like Article 5 commitment, but it is a commitment to supply Taiwan with the weapons it needs to defend itself should China attack. But when you hear that,

how can you take to the bank any assurance that Donald Trump would honor his commitment to continue to defend Taiwan? He literally gave it away in a sentence. to the reporters. Now, if you're Jiji Ping, that summit is a huge success. That's probably the thing he cares about most. And he got that. And he got that because the minute Trump was on the ground in their first conversation, Peter, Jiji Ping issued the strongest warning that China's issued to the

United States when the two leaders are together in person, right at the top of the gender, right out of the game. About Taiwan. Yeah. Yeah. So I would be very nervous if I were Taipei right now. So what surprises me is it's landed with relatively no reverberation from elsewhere, especially like in the U.S.

You don't hear anybody saying this is outrageous, can't do this. The closest we got to that is Michael Chong, right, going in from Canada to Taiwan. And, you know, where's Lindsay Graham here? You know, Senator Graham, who's one of the big, there's a very strong group of senators, Republican senators, who support Taiwan. I think, you know, you really have to ask yourself if the agenda is not so overloaded,

I mean, everybody is waiting now. The United States and Iran exchanged another series of proposals. On Monday, the kind of calculated leaks were. There's still a big gap between them. You know, in Iran, they're distributing guns to civilians in the street, so people are anticipating that this could go back. And I think if you're the Senate, you're so, overwhelmed. The agenda is so full right now that we didn't get the response. I think when people

have time and really pay attention, this is probably one of the worst walkbacks on that American commitment. United States always had what we call a policy of calculated ambiguity. You don't say what you're going to do, but you just tell the Chinese all. The Chinese all. over and over that you're opposed to the use of force to reunify China. But right behind that was the Taiwan Relations Act, where you were committed to supply defensive weapons. Trump just pulled the stool out from under that. And let's see what he does.

I think the pressure will come because that bill has gone through Congress. Let's see what he does on that. because who knows if he'll follow through or not. Where does Canada sit on this story? I mean, what did you make of the Chong, conservative, and, you know, a very well-respected conservative foreign affairs critic? And very knowledgeable about this issue, and very, very committed.

Look, I'm not surprised. And let's add that as the United States has sailed through the strait of Taiwan, repeatedly, usually once or twice a year, to demonstrate that it's an international waterway, same as she was the straight and foremost. We've had a frigate every time virtually almost in those missions that sail through. So we've joined in. So we have a strong commitment there that we have articulated very similar to the United States. I can't imagine that Canada would walk that back. We're not in the same position because we're not supplying weapons

and we don't have a commitment, a formal commitment to supply weapons. So, you know, there's not a direct analogy. But this race is the question, Peter, as we watch the world reorganize, and as the prime minister looks to Europe for shared participation in defense and defense operations, there is no alternative to the United States

in the Strait of Taiwan. There just is not. There's no other country with the Navy or the capacity to do anything we're trying to blockade and it's questionable whether the United States right now has the capacity. Everything is in the Gulf.

It's not in the Indo-Pacific. So, you know, this is the world that Canada lives in. Yes, to, first of five, but on which issues and how much? Okay. We're going to take our break here, but we have two other issues to squeeze into the final moments of today's program. One is Cuba, and the other is Greenland.

Makes a reappearance on the program. We'll do that right after this. And welcome back. You're listening to The Bridge, the Monday episode. That means Dr. Janice Stein from the Monk School, the University of Toronto. You're listening on Sirius XM, Channel 16. Canada Talks or on your favorite podcast platform. Glad to have you with us.

You know, it was just in the days before the invasion of Venezuela that Donald Trump was making all kinds of noise about Greenland. And now he just might invade because he wanted Greenland. He wants to add it to the map as part of the United States. And he made similar kinds of comments about Canada as well. but he was very aggressive on Greenland, or at least he sounded that way, until it was actually at Davos,

the day after Mark Carney's speech, that he suddenly backed off, said, we're actually going to sit down with Greenland, we're going to figure a way out of this. And then basically everybody forgot about the story, but the story wasn't forgotten about. Those talks have actually been going on since that moment. Yep.

And it kind of word got out this. week that the Greenland and Denmark are not very happy with the way these talks are going, that the Americans, at least at the table, are still sounding kind of aggressive the way their president had been sounding four months ago. What do you make of that? It's consistent. It's consistent with everything else we talked about. You know, Donald Trump may, you know, escalated that issue right before Davos and put it. an enormous muscle and enormous energy. And probably that more than anything else, destabilized NATO.

Everything else he had done, you could more or less, you know, talk your way around. But when he went after the territory of a NATO country, because Greenland is, in fact, formerly part of Denmark, even though it has a lot of autonomy. That was a whole different story. That was the wake-up moment in Europe. And he backed off, as you said. Now, why do he back off? Because the bond markets expressed their strong disapproval.

And he pays attention, frankly. So we invented a fig leaf. Again, you know, we're going to have talks. And the talks are going to be great. And in this one case, Peter, unlike the other ones we talked about, there are obvious and easy solutions if you want a solution. And, you know, in Greenland and Denmark, the United States had much bigger bases during World War II. They shrunk their bases so they didn't need them anymore.

The Danes and the Greenlanders have said, we can expand those basing rights if the United States wants an off ramp here. is frankly there for the asking. But their sovereignty, but their sovereignty is not there for the asking. That's right. Their space, their land, their air rights, all that. They may get up, but they're not going to give up their sovereign. No way.

And what irritated Canadian so much, right? It was a discussion about sovereignty. And what's Iran claiming now unjustifiably unjust, we are sovereign over. the straight of our moose, right? And that's the word that probably, you know, is the unifying thread and all of this. For Trump, he's not content with getting access. He's not, there's nothing pragmatic about him. It's so easy to say, well, he wants the oil, or he wants our water, or he wants this. That would assume that that's all he wants and you're in a negotiation. That's what it is for him. He comes back again and again and again. It's mine. It's mine. I want sovereignty

over this. And that's where the negotiations are deadlocked now over Greenland. Now, given what he's got on his plate, I can't imagine that they're going to let that dispute escalate in any meaningful way. I really can't. Or not right now. Well, you never know. I mean, every time you turn around, he's letting another dispute escalate. I mean, there's a new one with Canada on. What is this? Decades old. So on Monday, the Trump administration announced that they are withdrawing from

they've suspended their participation in the Joint Canada U.S. Defense Board. That's been there, Peter, since 1940. And look, why was it created in 1940? because we faced a common enemy. The United States was not in the war. You just remember that. We were already fighting.

The United States was not in the war. FDR didn't have the political support at that point to take the United States into war. But he knew, we know now from his diaries in the archives, he knew what was coming. And so that board was set up so the United States and Canada could plant together, could coordinate equipment,

could make sure they were buying in ways that didn't overlap. And it's always been a place where Canadian and American officials have come together to talk about broadly the defense of the continent. And we do it in other venues as well, Nora. So it's not so much this particular board, but it's frankly a calculated insult to, Canada, and that's what it is. And Albert Colby, in the Pentagon, people know him as bridge. You know, the language he used is no big surprise. Cana's not lived up to its defense commitment.

Well, that's just not factually true. We did reach the 2% defense, and we have, and we've committed to go further. There's no way he, you can hear the irritation my voice, but it's factually. well, there's just no way he can make that claim. And what I think, you know, some of the things about, well, we need a 51st state. We can all kind of laugh that off. But defense is at the core of the Canada-U.S. relationship. We share a continent. So it's not trivial.

No, no, it certainly, certainly isn't. even though some Americans tend to think it is. And maybe some Canadians, too. I think very few of those left now. There are very few of those. But they do exist, which is always troubling. Okay, final subject. Cuba.

We talked about this little last week, the assumption if all these other situations get resolved or put to the back burner somehow, the Cuba will suddenly move up to the front burner. What's new on that? Going the other way. Going the other way, frankly, again, I think we talked about it last week, Peter,

that they've run out of oil with the Cumans. 22 out of 24 hours are blacked out. You get two hours of power a day because they're rationing electricity like that two hours and people are cooking electricity and gas and people are cooking on charcoal, right? So this is an economy that's cratering. Who shows up?

U.S. plane shows up. U.S. government plane shows up at the Havana airport. It's John Rackcliffe, the director of the CIA, to talk to the Cubans and say, either you close the Russian and the Chinese listing post that you have in Cuba, which they do, or all bets are off. And you can't think of a more asymmetrical position now for those two. Again, here's what we see, the same story again and again, Peter, that even under tremendous pressure,

where the pain point is close to zero in an economy like Cuba, there is no willingness to compromise on sovereignty or on regime change, which this is. Well, at the same time, leaks the story that a decades-old event where Cuban aircraft attacked a civilian, a third party NGO aircraft brothers to the rescue which was a group of Cuban emigres who were rescuing

Cubans who were fleeing Cuba when there was another period of acute food shortage and they blew these two airplanes out of the sky and the pilot was killed in other passengers the United States is now preparing an indictment against

Roval Castro that's Fidel's Two charge him. Fidel's brother. And the grandfather of Raulito, as he's called, the grandson, who's very close to the regime.

Well, this is the Venezuela script, right? You have a formal indictment on the books. The economy is in tatters. And this is just so, I think, I

would say, this far from cooling off the situation, giving everything that's going on in the Gulf. This one definitely, definitely is heating up. And this one, I think you can tie very closely to the U.S. midterms. This goes to the base of the Republican Party in Florida, the Cuban emigaries that have long been Republicans and long wanted to see regime change in Cuba. And remember that story about those two aircraft. I don't think this one is going to wait very long, Peter.

Okay, well, let me ask you it this way. When it appeared obvious that they were going to go into Iran or they were going to attack Iran, we said Iran is not Venezuela. No. This is not going to be over in 48 hours or whatever it was in Iran. No. Or in Venezuela. So is Cuba Venezuela?

It's certainly more like Venezuela. Venezuela than it is like Iran. Iran is the country of 90 million people vast. You know, every time you look at the map, it controls one side of the street. Cuba is a small island, deprived of its benefactors. And it has three. Russia was its primary benefactor. It's very clear. Russia has already signal. No, no, no. My priority is Ukraine. I'm not getting involved in this one. Venezuela, which was its main supplier of oil, well, D'Alz, Rodriguez, no way is doing that. And China way over the horizon at a distance. So Cuba is isolated in a way that Iran was not. There are militias in Cuba, but there were militias in Venezuela too.

And the hardship in Cuba is now far worse than anything that was going on in Venezuela at the time that that military action took place. Is there a script, you know, for aircraft to, to, to land and kidnap a leader? I'd be really stunned, Peter, because they all saw what had happened in Venezuela and to think you can do that twice with exactly the same script. But it's much closer. It's much closer to Venezuela than it is to Iran. You know, just as a quick last point, is there any possibility that Trump and Xi on that 48-hour meeting last week,

that there was a trade there? You back off on talking about Taiwan and we'll back off on talking about Cuba. You know, if you're the president of the United States and you have spent 18 months trying to get the Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing company to come to the United States instead of factories because you know the chips are the most valuable thing in this AI build out. There is no AI build out with those chips. There's nothing like that in Cuba. So if there were such a discussion, it would be the worst trade up all time.

Peter is all I can say. Okay. But just imagine, just imagine the campaign if he were to do this and Q1N succeed. And he campaigns, I have in the United States to his base, I have writ our region. I'm the only president that has been able to do it. Nobody has been able to do this since the revolution. That's true. And there's no doubt that would be for some people.

people a real feather in his cap. Mind you, they're still paying five bucks a gallon gas. More, more, more. Because by the time that happens, it'll be higher. Exactly. Okay, it gives us lots to think about and to look forward to next week's conversation and talk to Janice Stein.

Janice, thanks so much for this. We'll talk again in seven days. See you in a week. There she is, Dr. Janice Stein, Monk School, University of Toronto. and our thanks as always to Dr. Stein for spending time with us. I know you enjoyed. Gets you thinking, gets you talking.

That's going to do it for this day, the start of another week, even though it's just Tuesday. And I told you I'd forget that. I said Monday coming out of the break, right? Well, here we are on Tuesday. tomorrow reporter's notebook Kathleen Petty joins

Rob Russo as she fills in for Altheiraj tomorrow Thursday it's your turn and the question of the week is superstition what is yours be honest

be frank do you have a superstition what is it why do you have it 75 words or fewer 3 p.m tomorrow is the cutoff time

3 p.m. Eastern time is the cutoff time. Make that clear. 3 p.m. Eastern time. Name, location, and send it to the Mansbridge podcast at gmail.com. Thanks so much for listening today. Look forward to talking to you again in 24 hours time.