The Bridge with Peter Mansbridge - Will Canada Send Its Leopard 2 Tanks To Ukraine?

Episode Date: January 24, 2023

In his regular Tuesday commentary on Ukraine, Brian Stewart details why the Ukrainian army so covets the German-made Leopard Two tank and whether Canada will send some of its contingent to the war.  But first a new study on "trust in the media" has some disturbing findings.

And hello there, Peter Mansbridge here. You are just moments away from the latest episode of The Bridge. Trust in media. Just how low has it become? And hello there. First of all, it is Tuesday. That does mean Brian Stewart and his commentary on Ukraine. And it's a good one again today. We'll get to it, though, in just a few moments. Because I want to talk a little bit first about the media. As you know, we have focused at different times over the last couple of years on

this podcast on the issue of trust in media. We've had guests on the subject, we've had discussions on the subject, and we've occasionally seen new surveys on the subject. One of the things that one has to keep in mind, and I've said this often and I'm reminded again by my good friend and co-author Mark Bulgich, that the media is not a monolith. Not all news organizations operate the same or are looked upon by their customers as the same. That's worth remembering. It's like when you're, say you're asked, what's your favorite newspaper? You know, is it the Globe and Mail, the Toronto Star,

the Vancouver Sun, the whatever, the Halifax Chronicle Herald? You know, you may have a lot of faith in that particular brand, but not so much in another brand of newspaper. Same goes for television. Are you a fan of the CBC or a fan of CTV or Global? You may be big on one and not so much on others and not trust others. And so it kind of gets mixed up a little bit. But the numbers I'm going to talk about here in a moment are the numbers that are seen as the overall numbers. Now, this isn't a new study. It's new to me.

I hadn't noticed it before. But it's just come to my attention. It was done late last year by the Gallup organization. So it's a fairly large sample survey, but that's one thing about it. There are two things that are quite interesting. One is, for the first time anyway that I've seen, this one really tracks over the last kind of 50 years, the last half century or so, just how that trust in the media has dropped. That's one aspect of this study.

The other aspect is how polarized the political extremes, if you will, are on the issue of the media. Now, the study is mainly American, but I see a lot of similarities, especially in the mail I get, about feelings towards the media in our country as well, and internationally as well. So, give me some of the numbers, Peter, and we can, you know, try and assess this. Basically, what we've seen in the last 50 years is this steady decline. There have been times when there's been a little bump in feelings toward the media, but only little and not very long-lasting. Back in the early to mid-70s in the United States highest point in the last 50 years. That's immediately following Watergate, whether our friend Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein led the way in telling the story of what was Well, those numbers have dropped.

34% of those surveyed by the Gallup organization in the United States have a great deal or a fair amount of confidence in the media. 38% have no trust at all. So that's not good, obviously. 34% Americans trust in the mass media to report the news fully, accurately, and fairly is essentially unchanged from last year, just two points higher than the lowest that Gallup has recorded. That was during the 26th presidential campaign in the United States. Only 7% of Americans have a great deal of trust and confidence in the media,

and 27% have a fair amount, so that couples to 34% on the plus side. Meanwhile, 28% of U.S. adults say they do not have very much confidence, and 38% have none at all in newspapers, TV, and radio. Notably, this is the first time that the percentage of Americans with no trust at all in the media is higher than the percentage with a great deal or a fair amount combined. That's really troubling. Now, the other point I mentioned earlier, it's worth noting here, and I would suspect it's similar in Canada,

is the partisan divide in the media. In the States, it remains sharply polarized along partisan lines, with 70% of Democrats, 14% of Republicans, 27% of Independents saying they have a great deal of or a fair amount of confidence in the media. 70% of Democrats, 14% of Republicans. Now, there's always been a gap between those two, but never has it been so low on the part of the Republicans versus the Democrats.

The Democrat number on confidence in the media has remained roughly the same in these past 50 years. Well, it's dropped from the mid-70s to the low 60s. But Republicans who in the 1970s were in the mid-70s, it's dropped now to around 30%, the combined trust number. That partisan split is really damaging. Hasn't always been that way, as I said. 50 years ago, there was a slight gap, but not a large one. Now there's a large gap.

And it creates the kind of backlash against the media that we see, and we do see it in this country as well. Now there's a second piece of the news about the media today. This one is really discouraging. It's heartbreaking. You know, in spite of what many people feel about the media, there are those who literally risk their lives to tell the story that they're covering. And later this today, the Committee to Protect Journalists is going to

publish its annual report. And in that report, it's going to find that the number of journalists killed increased sharply in 2022. In total, the Press Advocacy Organization said a staggering 67 journalists and others in the media profession were killed worldwide last year. I'm quoting from a CNN report last night. That figure is more than double what was reported in 2021 when 28 journalists were killed. These figures point to a precipitous decline in press freedom with the highest number of journalist killings since 2018. Jody Ginsburg.

She's the president of the CPJ, told CNN. Meanwhile, she says governments continue to imprison record numbers of journalists and fail to confront the spiraling violence and culture of impunity that have effectively silenced entire communities around the world. That's worrying. Both these stories are worrying about a pillar of democracy. The fact that so many readers and viewers and listeners have a lack of confidence, a lack of trust in media organizations, while at the same time media organizations who are supporting their journalists in the field to tell the stories that are important for our understanding of the world are watching those same journalists being killed

on assignment. None of this is good. None of this is good. All right. Tuesdays for the past almost a full year now, we're coming in on the 11th month anniversary. In fact, I think it's today. Since Russia brutally invaded Ukraine.

The battle continues, and so does the diplomacy, if you will, around the battle. And we're going to talk about that a little bit with Brian Stewart this morning. But first, we're going to talk about that a little bit with Brian Stewart this morning. But first, we're going to take this quick break. We'll be right back. Move the topic to Ukraine.

And welcome back. You're listening to The Bridge right here on Sirius XM, Channel 167, Canada Talks, or on your favorite podcast platform. It's Tuesday. Time for Brian Stewart's commentary on the story in Ukraine. Brian's been with us almost every Tuesday for 11 months now as we move towards the first year anniversary of a war that we thought was going to be three or four days long. We know differently now and we know why. It's the strength and conviction of the Ukrainian people.

All right. Here's this week's commentary with Brian Stewart. So, Brian, some of the mail is still coming in about one of your comments from last week where you suggested that we are witnessing today the biggest military buildup around the world that we've ever seen in the history of the world. And now a lot of people, they weren't doubting you. They were just alarmed by that. Maybe. Yes. Well, it is very alarming and alarms a lot of the military analysts of the world too. But you just have to consider, you know, compare this to any age in the past. There's many more countries, bigger countries, richer countries, more money being spent on arms.

I mean, just run down some of the list. U.S., China, Russia, the European Union, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the whole of the Middle East, India, Pakistan, Iran. You know, armaments firms just can't keep turning out the equipment fast enough these days. There's so much pouring in. The overall world spending on armaments last year was over $2 trillion U.S. That's for the seventh year in a row. That's $14 trillion. I can't even imagine that amount of money. I don't even know where to begin or end with that amount of money since 2015.

And, you know, we don't even think of some of the countries these days that are making huge armaments and arming themselves. The South Koreans, just one example, they make a much sought after mobile 155 millimeter howitzer that they call Thunderer. All of Europe's just amazed at this thing. It's just absolutely fabulous in terms of military usage and what Ukraine would love to get. The Brits would probably like to buy it. But the rumor is, and the reports are, that the South Korean sales reps actually drew their agents out of Europe in the last year because their order book is so long. They have so many orders now, they can't possibly fill them all. It is frightening that way if you look at Europe all the countries say NATO in Europe uh the laggers the ones that were down around the Canadian level or not not spending up to two percent of their GDP they've

been pledging to spend up to that two percent GDP now but they're now going over it like the United Kingdom was decided to aim for two now it wants to aim for three and France just in the last few days France this is a this was a stunner for Europe says it's going to start spending 400 billion dollars U.S equivalent on new armaments above their already pledged higher armament spending starting next year, over the next five years. And we mustn't forget that it's still within elderly living memory that France was one of the great military superpowers of Europe, perhaps the largest for quite a while.

So this spending is continuing to go up and uh you know I I don't know what's going to stop it as long as we have the Ukraine Russia war Russia Ukraine more Taiwan on the boil we have other outbreaks threatening of Syria of course Iran always a potential Pakistan. There's a lot of areas there where the atmosphere is not peaceful, and there's no real negotiated end to this war in sight yet. As we've discussed week after week, there's just not a sight yet. So it is alarming. Your listeners are quite right to be alarmed. Those figures are staggering, though, when you run through those numbers.

They make you kind of queasy in the stomach when you realize, oh, my God. Imagine if even half of that was spent on education around the world or housing the migrant workers around the world, migrants and refugees, or into a fighting for the environment all of that that money that could be used is going into jobs and they're you know they're well-paid jobs a lot of people are very happy to make living making weapons and all that but uh it's it's a terrible terrible long-term waste one has to think one other thing I would point out, too, is that during the Cold War, immense amounts of money were spent. Just again and again, mind-boggling. You can't really get your brain around it. But that was a time when you wouldn't be getting Russo-Ukrainian wars. The wars were few. Korea, of course, Indochina, and most of the others tended to be fairly short,

not all. But it's a less stable world now that has more weapons than ever before in human history. And that is the worrisome part. Now, when I say this to some military historians, they say, yes, that's very true. But remember, the First World War and the Second World War weren't caused by over-military spending. It was caused by, in the First World War's case, horrible diplomacy, mad, bad diplomacy, and the inability of countries to spell out clearly where they were going to fight and where they weren't going to fight and the second world war of course had uh it was the failure of france and britain to keep up arguments that may have encouraged hitler and in italy as well mussolini to launch war so it's it's a hard thing to know where the balance is most secure, except to think we're never really that secure unless we

work at this every single day, full time. All right. I want to, you know, I'm still like you, trying to settle down to try to understand those numbers and the vast array of countries now involved in building up armaments. But in spite of all that, in the last week or so, the thing that has grabbed the most attention has been one piece of armor, and that's the tank, and specifically the Leopard 2 tank that the Germans have built, and many countries, including Canada, own Leopard 2 tanks now.

The Ukrainians want them. They're begging for them. They say this is what we need to really deal with the Russian onslaught in a successful way. They're asking for them, but countries that even want to give them those tanks have been held back because the Germans have in the sale agreement, the original sale agreement, that they can't move them to any other country without Germany's approval. With that as the background, suddenly things seem to have happened or be happening the

last 24, 48 hours that could free up those tanks and make a huge difference. That's very true. And this is a seminal moment. If indeed it comes across, and as you very well say, it seems to be happening with German decisions these days, you have to underscore the scene because they tend to go forward and then two steps backwards in a lot of areas. But just really in the last 24 hours or so, the German foreign minister, Anna Baerbock, has kind of cleared up a bit of the fog of diplomacy and made a statement that says that Germany now would not stand in their way of those countries who want to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. This is an amazing shift that Europe is saying, my gosh, this may be the moment. It's going to be historic. In fact, Ukraine has grasped this moment to say in one of the statements,

this move is the move that will make the whole situation crystal clear, and we will see where it takes Germany. Everything will become obvious. That's kind of a threat there if they don't come through with this. There's going to be one view of Germany, and if they do come through and allow the tanks, there'll be another view. It is quite extraordinary what has been going on um but it would means that if Germany agrees and they're still waiting for Schultz the chancellor to make up his mind fully he says he's still pondering it um and the German defense minister says first of all he wants to take an inventory of the tanks which caused even German media to go crazy and say, this is ridiculous.

We look like fools. We don't even know what's in our garage. We have to go count the tanks again. It's only been a year now we've been in this war. But Germany has been under unrelenting pressure across Europe. Nowhere stronger than from Poland, the country we've mentioned before, showing more and more muscle as a growing power within Europe. And it started to threaten in the last few days that if Germany doesn't give the green light, go ahead. Poland will go ahead anyways and send 14 of these Leopard 2 tanks into Ukraine and will try and mobilize other countries to send their tanks as well, and they'll simply ignore the Germans. That may have knocked Germany for a bit of a standing loop right now.

They're also facing huge scorn on the part of the British papers, the French papers, you name it. They're going after the Germans, calling them cowardly and outrageous. Even some German commentators crying out. Calling this the low point in modern German history and stuff like that. I mean, the government at times has looked shell-shocked. The government in Berlin, I'm talking about, has looked shell-shocked at times. It doesn't know whether it's coming or going.

One minute it seems ready to give the go-ahead. The next it's pulled back again. Now, clearly, Germany has a historical problem we're all aware of because of the World War II legacy and the fact that Germany has really tried two things, never to look offensive again, never to look as if it was getting too overly armored and too muscular again, but also never to alarm the Russians and cause the Russians alarm. So they're sort of hanging back. But I think NATO had a big meeting in Germany last week, is basically saying to Germany, look, this can't go on. We can't see perhaps Ukraine lose

this war for one of tanks. All Ukraine is asking for is 300 modern tanks from the West. Now, it has its own tanks. As we mentioned before, it has well over 300, but they're old. They're T-72s. They're worn down. They need fresh, new tanks from the West. And if Germany was to stand in their way, as more and more rumors are coming in from the battlefield that the Russians may be preparing a major offensive, and that was to go wrong for Ukraine, Germany would be in a terrible pickle. So it looks like they're going to start giving way here. And that's going to change the situation considerably because there are many countries, there's over 2000 leopards in the world, by the way, but most of them are in Europe. Something like 15 European countries are anxious to send leopards in. They're already training Ukrainian troops

on the leopard, and they would be able to get a fair number in very soon, which would then be married to all the armored fighting vehicles that the West has been given. Bradley's from the United States and other fighting armored vehicles from different countries, including Germany, to form really big, powerful armored brigades to be used either to crash through Russian lines and retake territory or to hold the defensive against Russian major attacks. And remember, tanks are used sometimes quite effectively for defensive as well as offensive. What is it about this Leopard 2 tank? We discussed this a little bit a couple of weeks ago, but why is it so special? Why is it the tank that every country seems to want?

Well, it's a very, very good tank. It's certainly in the running to be considered the best tank in the world up against the French Leclerc and the American Abrams. And the Russian T-90, which we haven't seen much of in this war, but is very advanced. And that's one of the major things the Ukrainians have to look out for. But the Leopard is very fast, extremely mobile for a tank. It's got a very heavy gun, powerful gun, and it's designed to take on that Russian T-90 I mentioned. And above all, it's in Europe, which means they can be brought to Ukraine easily. They can be repaired outside Ukraine easily and sent back in. They train troops easily. So it's the easiest of all the tanks

to send in and the best of all the possibilities. Now, the American Abrams is a very advanced tank, but it's bigger, it's less mobile, and it runs on jet fuel, which is not really the kind of fuel that Ukraine has a great amount of right now would be a significant problem for the refueling and the maintenance and the repair of them in Ukraine. So the Leopard would be probably the very best it can get. And it's also getting remembered, I think it is 14 of the British Challenger tanks, which are very, very effective tanks. You know, both the Prime Minister Trudeau

and the Defence Minister Anand have been asked in the last week or two, and including just in the last 24 hours, what about Canada's Leopard 2 tanks? Are we going to offer them up? The answer seems to be more positive, but still hinges on this German question. Yeah, it hinges on that German question for sure.

And a few other things. Now, in the books, Canada has 82. Now, you learn over time studying the Canadian military to be very leery of their figures, what they really stand for. Those are 82 on paper. How many are actually functioning it's been suggested by some as no more than 30 and they need to be used for training here in canada but keep in mind canada could certainly make a statement by sending four over to join with a

say a spanish or you know or a czech uh gift of tanks and then just boost it up and have our flag flying there. That could be done. And I think something like that may well be done. A small number, but a significant number, because it shows the unity again of the West, which is so important. Nothing is more discouraging to Putin than to see a unified West. And nothing is more encouraging to Putin to see a disunified West. So all the kerfuffle over Germany and the rest of the EU and NATO has been very encouraging to Russia and allows their leaders to think the West is pretty weak after all, just as we suspected. But when they come together in a form of unity, as they may be doing right now,

it's quite discouraging for them and their war aims. We should, before we call this one a day, we should take a look at some of the recent battle situations that have taken place because after months and months of losses, the Russians have actually had a couple of gains, painful perhaps, but, you know, for them, but nevertheless gains in Soledar and Bakhmud. Talk to us about those and the impact that can have. These are two communities not very far apart. I forget the actual mileage, something like maybe eight miles or 10 miles apart. And the big battle has been for Bakhmut, which is we've been hearing for really months now, they've been trying to get using mainly those Wagner fighting militia,

many of them criminals released from jail that have been using cannon fodder attacks and taking just horrendous casualties and making very little indents. They're still not in Bakhmut. They haven't got it surrounded. They're still a little bit away from taking it, though there's some speculation that they could take it this coming week. As for Soledad, they seem to have got 90% of it, but they haven't got the Western outfit. These are very small areas. I mean, one shouldn't think of

a big city here. They're really small towns. Think of small towns you'd be driving through in rural Canada. That's about the size, maybe 10,000 at the most. so neither of them has a big tactical advantage or a strategic advantage at all but they're they become battles like for names like battle over vimy ridge or which was tactical for canada the second first world war sorry or those small names you hear of in history uh but if the Germans that certainly the Russians definitely want to get it because Putin wants it and it's been the sign of his failure as military's failure that he hasn't got it and until he perhaps gets it uh there's still this air of defeat hanging over Russia even though winning it doesn't count for much. The stakes really here are more manpower than anything else. Germany, I keep saying Germany because I'm thinking of

First World War, I'm sorry. But the Russians have lost just tens of thousands of soldiers to try and get these small locations. But the Ukrainians have also lost a very large amount of soldiers. And they're quality soldiers. They're not ex-criminals and mercenaries. They're really quality soldiers. And losing them is a very big price for Ukraine to have to pay to hang on to these locations. So some i think i think including american military analysts have been advising the ukrainians why don't you give them up they're not really very important and you're losing too much of your quality manpower trying to hold on to them and i think the russians this is basically the russian view is even even in the long delay getting them, we're causing these casualties to Ukraine that it can't

afford to take. And the more we queue up in these battles for these small central eastern locations, the less likely it is that the Ukrainians can put together that big offensive they want to pull off against us in late winter or in the spring so there's a there's a i hate to use this term it's a military term that is sickling but it's a meat grinder effect involved here where both sides are trying to sum up how many can we lose in this battle and then russians seem to say we don't care how many we lose we'll just bring in another hundred thousand and the ukrainians are saying well staying here we're we're wiping out a lot of russians but we're also seeing far too many of our good soldiers lost it's it's a it's a hard the awful bloody balance of war yeah the that you know i've had a couple of letters over the last few weeks about this issue of when we get carried away talking about this kind of tank or that kind of aircraft or this kind of helicopter or whatever, and who's supplying armored vehicles, et cetera, et cetera, that we tend at times to lose sight of the fact that people are dying in the conflict, one.

And two, civilians are dying in huge numbers as well. And the combination of those two things has many people saying, come on, these two sides have got to sit down and talk. This has got to end. But there's just zero indication of that happening. Still zero indication. The New York Times had a big editorial, I think in the last week, saying how do we bring Putin to negotiate?

Because people keep thinking, well, all we've got to do is talk the Ukrainians into saying, okay, we'll Putin to negotiate? Because people keep thinking, well, all we got to do is talk the Ukrainians into saying, okay, we'll sit down and we'll negotiate, which means we'll give up maybe 15% of your entire country. But there's the other party to this, and it's Putin. And if Putin sees a weakness in the Ukraine, he'll want more than 15%. And how do you get Putin to negotiate if he's in a losing position? So diplomats everywhere are racking their brains. I mean, nobody here is unaware of the loss of life. Over 8,000 Ukrainian civilians killed almost every every night now we see the destroyed buildings, the weeping mothers, weeping for children, the horrible wreckage of war. It's on all our brains. We know how costly it is. None of us have to be reminded. But bringing it to the point where you can end

the war through negotiation means that both sides need to be willing to negotiate. Right now, neither side is willing to negotiate because they're not in a position where they feel they have to negotiate. They're not going to negotiate for fun. They're not going to negotiate because it'll make them look good in the newspapers and on TV. They're only going to negotiate when they think they can come off not losing more than they're losing or perhaps winning a little bit more than they're winning. Well, on that sad note, we'll call it a week for this week. Brian, you always give us a lot to think about, and sometimes it can be pretty depressing.

It can be very depressing. It sure can. All right. Thank you, sir. We'll talk again next week. Okay, Peter. Thank you. Brian Stewart with his weekly thoughts on the situation in Ukraine. We're obviously very happy to have him with us to keep us focused on what's happening there, but also focused on what's really at stake in this conflict between, this war between Russia and Ukraine. All right, before we go, something, well, it's not exactly light,

but it is something, one of those little things that we call news you can use, right? Or as my father used to say, I don't know how I ever got along with not knowing that. So here it is. And this one's from the Daily Mail. The headline is, are you a Procrastinator? Because if you are, the news isn't good. Let me read from the Daily Mail's piece. Charles Dickens famously wrote, The procrastination is the thief of time.

Now scientists think it can also steal your sleep, damage your health, and leave you worse off financially. They did a study of 3,500 Swedish students, and they found that those who regularly put off doing things, that they procrastinate, had an increased risk of poor sleep, lack of exercise, and getting into financial difficulty. Experts believe this is because, although most people have the tendency to procrastinate a little, for others it is their general disposition and can affect how well they do in life. Those who often delayed an intended course of action despite expecting to be worse off risk everything from poor academic achievements to general health life, general health, the study suggests. Researchers from the University of Stockholm recruited students from eight universities

studying everything from social sciences and technology to economics and medicine. They chose students at the highest levels of freedom and low structure of university life puts high demands on their capacity to self-regulate. They were asked to rate a series of lifestyle questions ranging from one very rarely or does not represent me, defy very often or always represents me over a nine-month period, the equivalent of an academic year. This came up with their procrastination score. Do you have a procrastination score? Which was then measured against physical, mental, and psychosocial health issues such as loneliness. Using the average as a baseline, they found for every

increase of one in the procrastination score, people were 13% more likely to be depressed, according to results published in the Journal of the American Medical Association. Those who dallied were almost 15% more likely to suffer from eco-difficulties and less likely to do exercise or sleep well, the researchers concluded. I'm getting depressed just reading it. I've actually never been a procrastinator normally. If anything, I tend to act on things right away to deal with them. And I'm not saying that's a good thing, because sometimes that can lead you down the wrong path as well.

You can move too quickly and not consider all the potential outcomes. But I've never been a, oh, I'll leave that till tomorrow. I'm more of a, I'm going to deal with it now so I don't have to deal with it tomorrow. There'll be something else I'll have to deal with tomorrow. So I'm kind of a reverse procrastinator. Whatever that is. Okay. That's it for Tuesday.

Tomorrow, Smoke, Mirrors, and the Truth with Bruce Anderson. Bruce will be by. We'll have things to try to determine whether they're smoke, whether they're real, whether they're the truth, whether they're using mirrors. We'll try and deal with that. Thursday, it is your turn, so get

your cards and letters in. The Mansbridge Podcast at gmail.com. The Mansbridge Podcast at gmail.com. And Friday, of course, is Good Talk. Friday and Wednesday, we're also on our youtube channel you can find us there just go to my uh twitter or instagram bio and you'll see the link it's free so join us by watching whether it's uh smoke marys and truth on wednesday or good talk on friday i'm peter man's bridge thanks so much for listening on this by watching, whether it's Smoke, Mirrors and the Truth on Wednesday

or Good Talk on Friday. I'm Peter Mansbridge. Thanks so much for listening on this day. And we will talk to you again in 24 hours.