The Bridge with Peter Mansbridge - Will Covid Kill Cash? Is The Cashless Society Finally Here?

Episode Date: April 28, 2020

And will you ever get on an airliner again -- the difficult decisions ahead for the world's airlines. And how will the planet handle the virus when it hits the poorest countries in the world?

And hello there, Peter Mansbridge here with the latest episode of The Bridge Daily. Here is the question for today. So listen close. Be honest with the answer. When is the last time you used cash? That's right. Last time you used cash. Have you used cash at all in the last seven or eight weeks?

And seven or eight weeks is kind of the period of when we've all been asked to stay at home. Or at least all of us who are considered non-essential to actually be at work. Many of us are working from home to actually be at work. We know who essential workers are, and we love them. They're our heroes. But cash, when's the last time you used it? I know in my case, I think I've only used cash once during the seven or eight weeks. I left some cash on the doorstep as a tip for a delivery person.

I think it's the only time I've used cash. Everything else has been on a credit card or a debit card or an e-transfer. You know, I remember when I was a young reporter in the late 60s and early 70s, and we were doing stories about the cashless society. That's where we're heading, the cashless society. And we all thought, yeah, yeah, sure. There'll always be cash.

Well, over the intervening years, every year it's got a little less cash. And even before this, it was pretty not using cash a lot. I mean, how often do you go to a bank branch? How often do you go to an ATM? And how will all that change as a result of this? Where cash has a dirty name for a lot of reasons, including a dirty name. People don't want to handle cash for fear of where it may have been, and it's traveled to your hands. So does it mean people are not using cash anymore? Do you have cash in your pocket? Do you have cash in your wallet, cash in your purse? Have you got cash? Do you know how much cash you have?

Could you guess within $5 of how much cash you have on your purse? Or in your wallet or wherever? That may determine how long it's been since you've used it. But I was reading, I don't know whether when you're looking at the Globe and Mail, if you look at it online, or those few people actually have it delivered anymore. But the Globe has a column written by a fellow by the name of rob carrick which is great carrick on money and he has all kinds of really interesting stuff that he writes about every week it could be real estate it could be whatever last week he

he wrote a few lines on on cash the headline was after the pandemic Pandemic, Will You Ever Use Cash Again? Good question. But anyway, Rob wasn't just asking questions of his audience and his readers. He was asking questions of some people who should know. He talked to a Bank of Montreal executive who told him in a recent conversation that demand for cash through ATMs has been stable. So people are still at least withdrawing cash.

I heard one person say to me a couple of weeks ago, I like to have some cash on hand in troubled times because you never know when you might actually need cash. I'm not using cash, but you never know when you might actually want to use cash. That sounded a little eerie to me. I was a little worried about that. Anyway, cash. Something to think about.

Are we actually close now to that period that I started working on all those decades ago at the cashless society? We're actually close now to that period that I started working on all those decades ago. At the cashless society. Are we now actually at it? You know, I had my son give me like a mini lecture on how he's 21 or about to turn 21. He can't remember the last time he used cash. He can't remember the last time he had a piece of plastic in his hand,

a credit card or a debit card. He doesn't use those either. He uses his phone. It's all done on his phone. You know, he can key in his credit card or his debit card from his phone and just tap when he's in a store. And when he takes an Uber, nothing changes hands. It's all done electronically. It's all done electronically. It's all happening digitally. He uses his watch sometimes because he's got a watch that's connected to his,

you know, phone. And, you know, it's a different world out there, and it continues to get different even through this. Topic number two today. We've got three topics on board today. Here's topic number two. You know, we talk about wondering whether we'll ever use cash again. How about airlines?

When's the next time you're going to go on an airline? I was in conversation with a top airline executive just last week. And, you know, this is difficult times for the airlines, very difficult times for the airlines. Nobody's flying. Planes are grounded. And going, what's your best guess? How long is this going to take before the airline industry gets back to where it was a couple of months ago? And keep in mind, where it was was pretty good. You know, there were a lot of airlines around the world,

something like 26,000, 28,000 passenger planes around the world. They're busy. People flying everywhere, traveling the world. We have a small world now because of the ability for airliners to get you almost anywhere in very little time. Anyway, I said to him, how long is this going to take? He said, it's going to be at least two, if not three years before we can recover. Two or three years before we can recover. Two or three years. And then I see just today in a piece I saw on Bloomberg,

the head of Delta Airlines, saying, I estimate the recovery period could take two to three years. These men and women at the top of the airline business are either talking to each other or they're crunching the same kind of numbers in terms of looking at the future, and they're saying two to three years before the airline industry gets back to any sense of normalcy.

Now, always keep in mind now when we're talking about forecasts, our conversation with Dan Gardner a week or two ago when he said all the forecasts never turned out to be right. Well, you know, this airline issue, I mean, after 9-11, people, you know, for a very different kind of reason, stayed away from airlines initially. And airline stocks plummeted. And there was all kinds of disruption in the airline industry.

And some airlines went under. And the way we traveled totally changed because of the security at airports. But the airline industry came back. It took a while. because of the security at airports. But the airline industry came back. It took a while. I don't think it took two or three years, but it did take a while, but it came back. So will it come back this time?

Well, airline people are saying, yes, it will, but it's going to take time. And right now, you know, you've got this complete, well, not complete, but like 90% complete shutdown of the airline business around the world. And the biggest problem many airlines face immediately, aside from the drastic layoffs they've had to do and the attempt to try to figure out their budgets the the biggest problem they got right in front of them is where are they going to put all their planes parking planes is a problem you got 26 to 28 000 planes around the

world you can't just leave them at the gate. You've got to find somewhere to put them. And so you're finding pockets in different parts, let's just deal with North America, of this continent, where airlines are leaving their aircraft. They may work out an arrangement with a particular airport in the country to park a lot of planes, but most airports can't really put a lot of planes anywhere.

There's still some air travel going on, not much, but still some in our country, a fair amount in the States. If you look at any of the apps that show you planes in the air, Planes Live and there's a bunch of them, you'll see an awful lot of planes in the air, planes live, and there's a bunch of them, you'll see an awful lot of planes in the air in the States. There's an awful lot that aren't flying. So where are they? A lot of them are in Arizona.

That's where they park planes. Big areas of old Air Force bases that have been transitioned into basically parking lots for airplanes. There's a lot of Canadian planes down there. Both WestJet and Air Canada are parking planes down in the southern U.S. But at some point, those planes are going to come back, and the decisions are now being made.

Okay, so what's it going to be like? You hear a lot about middle seats are not going to be occupied, so people can be physically distant, right? Not sure that's six feet between the aisle and the window, but no middle seat being occupied. There's a problem with that. Airlines, you know, when I was in the airline business, years ago, Transair, Churchill and Winnipeg

and Prince Albert, Saskatchewan, all those different places I was based at back in the 60s. When I was in the business, you needed a plane that was somewhere around 50%, 60% full to be in a profit position. Anything after that was profit. Apparently now, I guess every airline is different, but it's a lot higher. You know, it's up around 80, 90%. That's how many people you need on the plane to break even. Well, if you give up all your middle seats, you're not going to break even. So that's a problem.

Masks on the plane. A lot of airlines are already saying, listen, at least for boarding and disembarking, people will have to wear masks because they're going to be so close together. How long is that going to last? And how long will that be obeyed? And how long will that be regulated? And what's the penalty if you don't? Will airlines serve food? That may be a problem. They may not want to deal with that. Well, when you've got some flights that are like 12, 14 hours long, you're probably going to want to have some food for your passengers,

assuming they want to eat. So, you know, there are a lot of these issues about air travel and how you're going to deal with it. And the airlines are, you know, are beginning to think about this. But that industry is going to be very different, very different, and there's going to be airlines that you're used to knowing about now that may not even exist when this is all over because they will have just lost too much money. And they'll be fearful of what it'll be like

when they do come back, how they're going to attract customers? Well, one way is, you know, is that rock bottom fares. Well, that's going to be tough. When the bottom line is the bottom line. And you're suffering because of it. Anyway, that's where we are on the topic of airlines. Cash, airlines, topics one and two.

Don't forget, if you have any thoughts on either of those, don't be shy. I'd love to hear them. The Mansbridge Podcast at gmail.com. The Mansbridge Podcast at gmail.com. Topic number three. We hinted at this last week it's a very important topic last week we had dr samantha nutt the founder and executive director of war child canada on the podcast talking about the difficulty charities were in as a result of such a focus on COVID-19

on the part of governments and the part of the way governments are directing financial aid to areas that definitely need it, but pulling back in areas that traditionally had been important for them, which were charities. But Sam, who's a good friend, spends a lot of her time traveling the world into parts of the world that many of us never get to, because they're not exactly vacation spots. They're countries that are in difficult straits.

And for many of those countries, it seems to be that this is where COVID-19 may be heading next and the horrific situation that could cause. So I wanted to spend a couple of minutes with Sam today to get an update on where we are on that and what, if anything, is being done about it. So here's our conversation from earlier today. So, Sam, not surprisingly, you know, we are consumed by what's going on around us, whether it's in Canada or the U.S. or parts of Western Europe, not so much about the third world.

And yet there's a story which appears to be starting to unfold in the third world. Tell us about it. Well, certainly areas of conflict and poverty are at very high risk of having significant mortality related to COVID for a couple of reasons. And Africa in particular is uniquely vulnerable. They've had more than 30,000 cases there. They've had roughly 1,500 deaths in the continent of Africa, which

may not seem, compared to what we've seen in other parts of the world, like a significant number. But we need to remember, Peter, that we're talking about parts of the world where there's very little health infrastructure. And even the capacity to trace this, to report cases, to record deaths is very limited. So we're starting to see a surge in other corners of the world. And once COVID gets a foothold in there, it's going to be absolutely devastating because of the extreme vulnerability that exists on the ground. So what are the potentials for helping? Because it seems in the areas that I listed, the countries I listed, we're having enough trouble trying to deal with our own situations in terms of equipment, et cetera, et cetera. How can this part of the world help that part of the world to what it's expected to go through now?

We need to replicate the things that have been working well on this side of the world in unstable and really at risk environments. So it comes down to, I mean, obviously we're talking about parts of the world where we're not going to miraculously rebuild the health infrastructure overnight. Places like Idlib province in Syria, for example, they only have 100 ventilators for a population of about 3 million people.

So that kind of infrastructure to rebuild quickly and efficiently is going to be very challenging. But there are some basic public health measures that we can put into place, and Wartel's been very much involved in this, to help populations that are at risk keep themselves safe. So washing hands, having soap, having sanitizer available,

helping them to understand the importance of social and physical distancing where it's appropriate, helping them to understand the symptoms of the disease and to identify cases or presumptive cases, even in the absence of having a firm health infrastructure and diagnosis to go along with it. So these are the kinds of public health education measures that can be put into place. At the same time, we also have to focus on, we can zero in on those populations

that are extremely vulnerable. So refugees, internally displaced people, people who are living in camps where physical distancing is very, very difficult and where the presence of COVID would just spread like wildfire. We also have to look at things like food security because malnourished populations are going to be even more vulnerable to very detrimental health effects as a result of COVID. And you are talking

about parts of the world, for example, in sub-Saharan Africa, where you've got a quarter of the population that is already undernourished. So maintaining food supply chains will be critically important. Masks, for example, manufacturing masks, shipping masks, and other protective equipment. These are the kinds of things that we need to focus on, and we need to really ramp up our efforts, despite how tremendously challenging it is right now. Last point. Obviously, organizations like War Child are focused on trying to help this situation. Are governments focused on it at all? This has been a huge issue, Peter. It's hard when we're all focusing on what's happening. And understandably, domestically, we're all under siege in our own way

and we're all worried about the future and about our health and well-being and that of our loved ones. And so trying to encourage a global thinking on this has been difficult. The Canadian government has committed more than $150 million to help with the fight against COVID overseas, particularly in the global south. About $50 million of that has been earmarked for the World Health Organization. But really, that's only a fraction of the hundreds of billions of dollars that has been committed to fighting this, you know, for example, in Canada and other parts of the world. So it isn't, unfortunately, enough. And, you know, some of the criticism around this the medical equipment to support themselves because we're still scrambling to provide it to our own healthcare workers. But the reality is, as we've seen with this particular crisis, is that for as long as it exists and is spreading anywhere in the world, we are all vulnerable. And so we need a global strategy and a global response. And that includes targeting those areas where it is likely to become, you know, really intractable, very, very difficult to manage, and very, very difficult to contain in the months and years ahead.

Sam, thanks very much for this. Thank you, Peter. Dr. Samantha Nutt from War Child Canada. Something to keep in mind. All right, tomorrow, another special program. Part of the program tomorrow will be focused on a letter I got last week from a listener to the podcast who raised this issue about where should we be in terms of our relationship with the United States. She'd clearly been thinking about this a lot,

wondering whether we want to reexamine our situation, what our relationship is with the U.S. And so she raised the question, and I thought, this is a good topic. And who do I so often go to on issues like that that deal with the big international picture, the big global picture, and Canada's relationships with important countries around the world?

For years, I have gone to Janice Stein, who was the founder, former director of the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at the University of Toronto. So I called up Janice the other day and I said, can we talk? I read her the letter. She thought this is a good reason to talk. Let's talk. And so tomorrow we will. And on tomorrow night's podcast,

we'll have that conversation. In the meantime, the Vansbridge podcast at gmail.com. As I always say say don't be shy drop me a line some great letters already this week as you know the Friday podcast is your thoughts and questions and comments

based on the mail you send to me so that's the bridge daily for this day I'm Peter Vansbridge thanks for listening and we'll be back So that's the Bridge Daily for this day. I'm Peter Mansbridge. Thanks for listening, and we'll be back talking to you in 24 hours. Thank you.