The Bridge with Peter Mansbridge - Will Netanyahu Ever Agree To A Ceasefire? Is Putin Really Interested in Peace Talks?
Episode Date: September 3, 2024We begin Year Five of The Bridge with Janice Stein's latest analysis of the two major international crises facing our world. In the middle east, the story remains Israel and Hamas and the Israeli prim...e minister's position on a ceasefire. Benjamin Netanyahu is facing hundreds of thousands of protestors in his own country and an enemy using murderous tactics on the other side. In Russia, Vladimir Putin talks peace, but is he serious?
 Transcript
 Discussion  (0)
    
                                         And hello there, Peter Mansbridge here. You are just moments away from the latest episode of The
                                         
                                         Bridge. That's right, we're back. And so is Janice Stein with the two big issues still facing us on
                                         
                                         the international scene, the Middle East and Ukraine. That's coming right up. And hello there. Yes, Peter Ransbridge here with you again.
                                         
                                         A Tuesday morning as we begin a new week and a new year.
                                         
                                         This is year five of the bridge, which more or less starts today.
                                         
                                         And we're happy to be with you. Hope you
                                         
                                         had a great summer. Hope you had a great Labor Day weekend. Are you ready? Are you ready? I think
                                         
                                         you're ready because I've received more than a few letters over the summer saying, can you please,
                                         
    
                                         can you please bring back Janice Stein? Well, she's certainly back today.
                                         
                                         And we're going to deal with these, you know, the two big issues that we've spent actually Mondays in the last year.
                                         
                                         And we will continue on Mondays with Janice starting next week.
                                         
                                         But today, with a shorter week, we're starting on the Tuesday.
                                         
                                         And I guess the two big questions on the Middle East front,
                                         
                                         will Netanyahu ever agree to a ceasefire?
                                         
                                         A remarkable weekend that we witnessed in Israel over the weekend.
                                         
                                         And on the Russia-Ukraine front, is Putin really looking for peace?
                                         
    
                                         He made indications over the weekend that he is.
                                         
                                         Well, we'll have those discussions with Janice coming up in just a couple of minutes.
                                         
                                         But I wanted to touch base on some of the planning for the rest of this week.
                                         
                                         And as we head into the new year, a lot of your features are going to be back.
                                         
                                         You know, the more butts conversations, we're still having those once every, you know, four to six weeks.
                                         
                                         Those were great.
                                         
                                         We re-ran all of them once from the last year over the summer,
                                         
                                         and there was a lot of nice reaction to that.
                                         
    
                                         They'll be back.
                                         
                                         The Random Rancher will be back on Thursday starting this week.
                                         
                                         Good talk, of course, with Chantel Hebert and Bruce Anderson
                                         
                                         starts up again this Friday.
                                         
                                         So there's lots ahead, plus feature interviews.
                                         
                                         We've got some great feature interviews coming up in the next little while
                                         
                                         starting next Tuesday with Ted Barris and his new book
                                         
                                         that's coming out in the next few days, his new book on the Battle of Britain
                                         
    
                                         and Canada's distinct involvement in the Battle of Britain.
                                         
                                         I think you'll be surprised when you find out just the extent
                                         
                                         to which Canadians were involved
                                         
                                         in the Battle of Britain.
                                         
                                         So that's kind of a snapshot of what we're looking at
                                         
                                         over the next weeks and months.
                                         
                                         In terms of this week, tomorrow, Wednesday.
                                         
                                         Wednesday is our best-of day,
                                         
    
                                         and it will continue to be throughout this year.
                                         
                                         Thursday, it's your turn and the random ranter.
                                         
                                         So what are we going to do for your turn this week?
                                         
                                         I'd like to hear from you at our email address,
                                         
                                         themansbridgepodcast at gmail.com, themansbridgepodcast at gmail.com.
                                         
                                         So don't hesitate.
                                         
                                         Please write.
                                         
                                         What I'm looking for for this week for our kickoff, your turn is,
                                         
    
                                         what did you learn about the country this summer?
                                         
                                         Or what did you learn about anything in particular this summer
                                         
                                         that perhaps you hadn't thought of before?
                                         
                                         Now, I'm not looking for an essay.
                                         
                                         I'm looking for a paragraph, a short paragraph,
                                         
                                         so we can get as many of these in as possible.
                                         
                                         All right, something along those lines,
                                         
                                         or if there's something in particular you want to talk about,
                                         
    
                                         you know, what you've seen, what you've witnessed,
                                         
                                         what you want to talk about, include that as well.
                                         
                                         Or make that a separate.
                                         
                                         But once again, the shorter the answer, the more likely it is that it's going to get on the air.
                                         
                                         Remember to include where you're writing from and your name.
                                         
                                         Your name and the location in which you're running from.
                                         
                                         And a short version of what's on your mind.
                                         
                                         It can be what's on your mind, what you heard this summer,
                                         
    
                                         what you learned this summer, what you want to hear talked about.
                                         
                                         In the next while, I get a lot of those letters.
                                         
                                         We try to accomplish as many as we can.
                                         
                                         But our format, once again, remaining straightforward.
                                         
                                         Mondays, Janice Stein, International Affairs.
                                         
                                         Tuesday, a feature interview or a feature story of some kind.
                                         
                                         Wednesdays, Best Of.
                                         
                                         Thursdays, Your Turn in Random Ranter.
                                         
    
                                         Fridays, Good Talk.
                                         
                                         So there you go.
                                         
                                         There's your little setup for year five of the bridge.
                                         
                                         Glad to have you with us.
                                         
                                         And, you know, I've missed you guys too, but I've enjoyed the summer.
                                         
                                         Lots of travel, being different parts of the country,
                                         
                                         from British Columbia to Newfoundland.
                                         
                                         Didn't get north this summer, which, you know,
                                         
    
                                         you know how much I enjoy getting to the Arctic.
                                         
                                         Didn't get there this year, so that will be next year's assignment,
                                         
                                         to get back up to the Arctic.
                                         
                                         All right, enough talk from me.
                                         
                                         Let's hear a talk from the person you love to hear from,
                                         
                                         and that is Janice Stein, the Director of the School of Global Affairs
                                         
                                         and Public Policy, the Munk School at the University of Toronto.
                                         
                                         Glad to have us with us, as always.
                                         
    
                                         So let's get right at it.
                                         
                                         Here we go.
                                         
                                         Our conversation to start year five with Janice Stein.
                                         
                                         Well, let me start this way, Janice.
                                         
                                         It seems to me we're on the Middle East.
                                         
                                         We're further off today than we were the last time we spoke in mid-June.
                                         
                                         How can that be?
                                         
                                         You are right.
                                         
    
                                         We are further off.
                                         
                                         To my astonishment, Peter, we are.
                                         
                                         I think the reasons are now crystal clear.
                                         
                                         After six weeks of intense effort by the United States to get this over the line, really intense,
                                         
                                         and they haven't given up yet, but they're on the verge of giving up.
                                         
                                         So what are the reasons?
                                         
                                         Yes, and war is reason number one, frankly, here.
                                         
                                         He's the head of the military operation for Hamas.
                                         
    
                                         Of Hamas, yes.
                                         
                                         And he's supposedly still in Gaza.
                                         
                                         He's supposedly still in the tunnels somewhere in Gaza.
                                         
                                         And actually, after the head of the political wing,
                                         
                                         Hania, was assassinated by Israel in Iran, Yair Sinwar was promoted.
                                         
                                         He is now the head of Hamas, of both its wings.
                                         
                                         So you think about that one, you assassinate and infuriate Iran, and then you get the leader who is most extreme in his demands.
                                         
                                         There's no give on Timur's part, largely because he's been hoping against hope that his ball will escalate, that Iran will escalate, and that he will reach the objective that he's had right from the beginning which is a regional
                                         
    
                                         war in this part of the world that's what he's wanted and he's come very close this summer
                                         
                                         he's come close but he didn't get it at least he hasn't got it yet that's right and i think that's
                                         
                                         why the united states is going to give this one more go, because Hezbollah engaged in what we might call a performative attempt.
                                         
                                         Israel responded in a performative way.
                                         
                                         Clear message.
                                         
                                         We do not want to push this over the brink.
                                         
                                         Iran threatened a fierce retaliation, has pulled back for a whole variety of reasons.
                                         
                                         So I think the U.S. calculation is right now,
                                         
    
                                         Sinwar has to realize that at the very most, the West Bank may well explode, but nothing else.
                                         
                                         And this is the time really to make this last effort.
                                         
                                         The other one is Netanyahu.
                                         
                                         And I watched his press conference yesterday.
                                         
                                         And if you watch the body language,
                                         
                                         there were hundreds of thousands of Israelis on the streets
                                         
                                         after the murder of the six hostages.
                                         
                                         There were funerals going on.
                                         
    
                                         There was a general strike.
                                         
                                         Hard to remember, Peter.
                                         
                                         There isn't really a parallel to this
                                         
                                         where a prime minister faces this kind of concerted protest by people who say we've lost confidence.
                                         
                                         Well, he gave a press conference and the body language, if you watched it,
                                         
                                         angry, determined, aggressive, and used, you know, classic Netanyahu tools.
                                         
                                         He had a pointer and a map.
                                         
                                         You may remember when he went to the UN and did that about Iran.
                                         
    
                                         Well, he showed the Philadelphia corridor and made an argument that that was the only border
                                         
                                         through which the military equipment could be struggled, smuggled.
                                         
                                         Just to clarify, this is the border basically between Egypt and Gaza.
                                         
                                         And Israel wants control of that border
                                         
                                         so it can monitor whatever's passing back and forth.
                                         
                                         That's exactly right, Peter.
                                         
                                         That is the single most important issue that is holding up a ceasefire agreement now.
                                         
                                         And the military arguments are real because a tremendous amount of stuff got into Gaza,
                                         
    
                                         despite the Egyptian presence along that border,
                                         
                                         despite the best technical means that people had.
                                         
                                         And the fact that Sinwar is clinging to it like this,
                                         
                                         it's so important to him,
                                         
                                         of course, only reinforces Netanyahu's argument on the other side.
                                         
                                         Control of this border matters.
                                         
                                         But that's not what the Israeli general staff is saying.
                                         
                                         They're saying at this point,
                                         
    
                                         you trade away that extra security
                                         
                                         in order to release the hostages.
                                         
                                         That's what the minister of defense,
                                         
                                         the Israeli minister of defense,
                                         
                                         said in a stormy cabinet
                                         
                                         meeting on Thursday night
                                         
                                         where the cabinet voted to
                                         
                                         maintain control of that border
                                         
    
                                         and he
                                         
                                         lost it in the meeting
                                         
                                         and screamed at them
                                         
                                         that they had to make a choice
                                         
                                         now between rescuing
                                         
                                         the remaining hostages
                                         
                                         who are alive. There are 100 on the list hostages who are alive there are 100 on the list if 60 are
                                         
                                         alive peter um that would be a lot frankly um and that's the choice that squarely confronts
                                         
    
                                         um netanyahu right now He made it so clear today.
                                         
                                         He's not going to back down.
                                         
                                         What are the Americans offering? If that is the single last issue on the table between the two,
                                         
                                         I mean, would either side accept some kind of international peacekeeping force
                                         
                                         or what have you to monitor
                                         
                                         that thing i i assume the americans have must have suggested that yeah it's got look that's the
                                         
                                         only kind this is how the united states broken deadlines in the past right um between egypt and
                                         
                                         israel they've done that kind of thing this This is really tough, though, because this is Egyptian territory.
                                         
    
                                         Let's just remember that that border at the foot of Gaza,
                                         
                                         that is the one border where Gaza and Egypt are joined.
                                         
                                         The Egyptians considered this an affront to their sovereignty.
                                         
                                         They have sided with Hamas because, of course, under the terms of the Egypt-Israel Treaty, which was signed way back in 1982, part of that treaty forbids any Israeli soldiers on any Egyptian territory without the consent of the Egyptians.
                                         
                                         So not only do they have to find some way of monitoring this force, they have to satisfy
                                         
                                         the Egyptians that their sovereignty will not be violated and not humiliate the Egyptians
                                         
                                         in the process.
                                         
                                         It's a real tough one.
                                         
    
                                         And we might, you know, just add one more sentence here.
                                         
                                         We, there might be technical means
                                         
                                         by which this could be done, right?
                                         
                                         You could put the most advanced sensing cameras
                                         
                                         all along that fence and on the ground.
                                         
                                         Well, yeah, that was the fence
                                         
                                         that was built on the other border with Gaza.
                                         
                                         Right.
                                         
    
                                         A billion dollars
                                         
                                         and Hamas sent drones,
                                         
                                         unarmed drones,
                                         
                                         against that fence on October the 7th
                                         
                                         to disable the cameras,
                                         
                                         the sensing equipment,
                                         
                                         and the machine guns that were on
                                         
                                         that fence.
                                         
    
                                         Well,
                                         
                                         you know,
                                         
                                         I watched Netanyahu as well.
                                         
                                         And listen, I'm no defender of Netanyahu.
                                         
                                         But I was trying to say, okay, well, if I'm in that position, what do I say here?
                                         
                                         You've got these hundreds of thousands of people protesting, and for good reason.
                                         
                                         And they're mad, and they want him gone.
                                         
                                         They're furious.
                                         
    
                                         Any deal he cuts now, short of protecting that border,
                                         
                                         will eventually be seen as some kind of a sellout.
                                         
                                         If he put himself in the worst possible spot, right?
                                         
                                         If he cuts a deal now,
                                         
                                         it is worse than a
                                         
                                         sellout. He's caving in.
                                         
                                         He's caving
                                         
                                         into U.S. pressure, right?
                                         
    
                                         He's rewarding
                                         
                                         Hamas. If he had made
                                         
                                         this deal four weeks ago
                                         
                                         when the Israeli
                                         
                                         chief of staff gave him the green light,
                                         
                                         go do it.
                                         
                                         If he'd done it then, that would have been entirely different.
                                         
                                         But to do it now and after giving that press conference today,
                                         
    
                                         and Joe Biden said these are the leaks coming out of the White House
                                         
                                         last night and this morning,
                                         
                                         that they're going to put one last offer on the table.
                                         
                                         How many one last offers is this now?
                                         
                                         The third.
                                         
                                         The third, one last offer, but then they're going to walk away.
                                         
                                         I wish they'd never said before.
                                         
                                         You know, there's an NSC official, I suspect Jake Sullivan, who said
                                         
    
                                         at some point
                                         
                                         you have to cut
                                         
                                         bait here if there's no fish.
                                         
                                         And so there
                                         
                                         was a, because they look
                                         
                                         you know, this whole effort
                                         
                                         makes the United States look
                                         
                                         ineffectual, weak
                                         
    
                                         as well. I mean, you can
                                         
                                         imagine how much the Chinese are enjoying this,
                                         
                                         Russians are enjoying this, and others who are watching this.
                                         
                                         And Trump's enjoying it.
                                         
                                         And Trump's enjoying it.
                                         
                                         You know, I watched Lindsey Graham over the weekend.
                                         
                                         You may have seen him as well.
                                         
                                         And, you know, Lindsey Graham only has a degree of credibility
                                         
    
                                         on any number of things right now, given his past few years.
                                         
                                         But at one point when he was asked, what would you tell Trump to do?
                                         
                                         Or what would you tell Biden to do?
                                         
                                         It was the question.
                                         
                                         And he said, there's only one thing Biden can do, and that's threaten Iran.
                                         
                                         Because Hamas is nothing without Iran.
                                         
                                         So you've got to get to Iran and say, you've got to end this thing,
                                         
                                         and if you don't, our retaliation will be against you.
                                         
    
                                         So end it now.
                                         
                                         Now, that sounds great.
                                         
                                         I don't know how you actually make that happen. But, you know, the threat against Iran from the me let me say bluntly i couldn't disagree more
                                         
                                         strongly with lindsey graham this is this is rolling the dice you know in a region that has
                                         
                                         set to explode let's just put it that way but if you actually look the military assets the u.s has
                                         
                                         deployed in the middle east there are two big warships. There is a nuclear submarine
                                         
                                         that it's unprecedented for the United States to announce publicly. They never tell you where
                                         
                                         their submarines are. They deliberately announce where that submarine is because submarines,
                                         
    
                                         that's an offensive weapon. That is not used to strike down incoming missiles that Iran might fire
                                         
                                         as part of its retaliation.
                                         
                                         Those missiles have offensive capability.
                                         
                                         So they have signaled in every way to the Iranians,
                                         
                                         don't retaliate, don't retaliate.
                                         
                                         This war could escalate in ways, frankly, that could engulf the whole region.
                                         
                                         But they have also said, and they've said it again to Netanyahu recently,
                                         
                                         we are not with you if you either preempt against Iran or retaliate in a large-scale attack
                                         
    
                                         in response to an Iranian attack.
                                         
                                         So I think he is just, I think Lindsey Graham is willfully winding
                                         
                                         to the risk of a much more dangerous war for everybody.
                                         
                                         Second of all, I think he gets the relationship wrong
                                         
                                         between Iran and Hamas.
                                         
                                         For sure, the Iranians have funded and supplied Hamas,
                                         
                                         you know, less so than Hezbollah,
                                         
                                         because Hamas is Sunni,
                                         
    
                                         and Iran is, of course course a majority Shia country.
                                         
                                         So there's always been these tensions.
                                         
                                         They've been papered over, but they're there.
                                         
                                         But it's not a command and control network anymore.
                                         
                                         The easiest way to say this,
                                         
                                         Biden cannot control Netanyahu.
                                         
                                         You'd think he could.
                                         
                                         It is Israel's only remaining ally.
                                         
    
                                         Israel desperately needs their diplomatic
                                         
                                         support. It could not prosecute the war
                                         
                                         without the military equipment that the United States
                                         
                                         continues to resupply. And yet
                                         
                                         Biden cannot force Netanyahu to the negotiating table.
                                         
                                         It's always been a myth that these are puppets.
                                         
                                         So he's wrong on both counts.
                                         
                                         Well, it wouldn't be the first time that Lindsey Graham has been wrong.
                                         
    
                                         But we, I mean, we can see the card he's playing.
                                         
                                         I mean, he's playing the Trump card right yeah yes
                                         
                                         but let me go back to Netanyahu because one of the things he said in that news conference
                                         
                                         was nobody pushes me around which seemed to be directly aimed at Biden yeah right
                                         
                                         so where does that leave us
                                         
                                         because at this point I mean if he'd said that six months ago
                                         
                                         we'd sort of say yeah sure but
                                         
                                         it's six months on you know lots happen in six months
                                         
    
                                         and Biden's basically gone
                                         
                                         right
                                         
                                         so nobody pushes me around um what's astonishing peter and i would never have expected this
                                         
                                         um the public after iran retaliated in april the public opinion polls start to turn and nathaniel's popularity began um to recover 67 still say they want this guy gone
                                         
                                         but nevertheless and and and we've seen this so many times under direct threat from iran you know
                                         
                                         and iran did launch ballistic missiles that's something something that the Israeli public has not experienced ever.
                                         
                                         You rally around the flag.
                                         
                                         What you heard today,
                                         
    
                                         you cannot push me around,
                                         
                                         is Netanyahu preparing to run
                                         
                                         against Joe Biden
                                         
                                         in the next Israeli elections when they come.
                                         
                                         I stood up to the prime minister.
                                         
                                         And in that press conference, he literally said it.
                                         
                                         He was so angry.
                                         
                                         And again, watching his body language, he said,
                                         
    
                                         they tried to stop me from going into Rafa.
                                         
                                         And I stood up to them.
                                         
                                         And I didn't listen to them.
                                         
                                         And so that's how he's going to run.
                                         
                                         He is going to run against Biden.
                                         
                                         He feels freer to do it now because Biden's gone.
                                         
                                         Less risk for him to do it.
                                         
                                         And of course, there's a U.S. election.
                                         
    
                                         And having a prime minister of Israel run against the Democratic president, you can see where he might think there's advantages
                                         
                                         to doing that in a very close U.S. election.
                                         
                                         So what that tells me is Biden will only push up to a certain point,
                                         
                                         but he won't want to force an open rupture before November.
                                         
                                         Now, what happens on November the second week after
                                         
                                         November after that Monday
                                         
                                         that's a different story because he also
                                         
                                         I can tell you
                                         
    
                                         from friends
                                         
                                         of friends who work in the White House
                                         
                                         you know what I mean
                                         
                                         he's livid
                                         
                                         just livid
                                         
                                         and you saw today or Monday
                                         
                                         when he got off his plane
                                         
                                         coming back to the White House one curt word about Netanyahu and that's it.
                                         
    
                                         Yeah, that was pretty clear.
                                         
                                         And he's shown that a couple of times in the last few weeks.
                                         
                                         He's furious.
                                         
                                         He's really furious.
                                         
                                         Tell me about the Netanyahu coalition such as it is. I mean, there's the parliamentary coalition and then there's the
                                         
                                         military coalition. And it's clear
                                         
                                         that some of his generals don't agree with the tact he's taking.
                                         
                                         But that coalition is holding. We
                                         
    
                                         thought at times that it was fractured, the Benny Gantz
                                         
                                         issue,
                                         
                                         but it's still holding.
                                         
                                         So, you know, let's talk about the military level first,
                                         
                                         then let's go to the political level,
                                         
                                         because the military level is a professional army.
                                         
                                         And who are the, they're really, you know,
                                         
                                         there's the chief of the general staff.
                                         
    
                                         He's absolutely critical.
                                         
                                         There's somebody very wounded by October the 7th.
                                         
                                         Happened on his watch.
                                         
                                         But he has come out in cabinet meetings where he's briefed the cabinet and said, trade away that Philadelphia border.
                                         
                                         Trade away that control of that southern border
                                         
                                         in order to get the hostages in.
                                         
                                         I think that's a big piece of it,
                                         
                                         and also the army is tired.
                                         
    
                                         They need, because this is, again,
                                         
                                         as everyone knows, a draft army, a civilian army.
                                         
                                         People get mobilized.
                                         
                                         This is the fourth time in less than a year that some people have been called up
                                         
                                         for 10, 12 weeks of service in some cases.
                                         
                                         So he wants a pause in the fighting at this point.
                                         
                                         Add on to that the head
                                         
                                         of the intelligence community, Ronan Barr,
                                         
    
                                         who's responsible for gathering the intelligence community, Ronan Barr, who's responsible for gathering the intelligence.
                                         
                                         And Ronan Barr's head of what's called the Shinbait,
                                         
                                         which, and as well as the head of military intelligence,
                                         
                                         both of them agree with Olivia,
                                         
                                         the chief of the general staff.
                                         
                                         They told the prime minister in the cabinet room,
                                         
                                         because they've gone to the cabinet meetings,
                                         
                                         and said, we openly disagree with this.
                                         
    
                                         We want you to trade away, control the border for now.
                                         
                                         If we need to go back in, we'll go back in.
                                         
                                         We can do it in eight hours.
                                         
                                         So he's getting, so this is a prime minister
                                         
                                         who's standing
                                         
                                         against the advice of
                                         
                                         all the senior military people in the country.
                                         
                                         That last quarter was
                                         
    
                                         Minister of Defense, who comes from
                                         
                                         his party.
                                         
                                         Said the same thing.
                                         
                                         And it's blown open.
                                         
                                         Gans,
                                         
                                         former chief of the staff, but he came from a
                                         
                                         different political party.
                                         
                                         This is Yoav Galant who comes from Likud,
                                         
    
                                         from the prime minister's party.
                                         
                                         So you have to ask yourself,
                                         
                                         how long does Galant stay?
                                         
                                         Five Likud members have to walk away from this government.
                                         
                                         Now, there's just one material fact here.
                                         
                                         Parliament is in recess in Israel.
                                         
                                         Doesn't come back till the end of October.
                                         
                                         So, yeah.
                                         
    
                                         It's hard to imagine that a parliament could be in recess
                                         
                                         when the country's at war
                                         
                                         and there are hundreds of thousands of people in the streets it's just like i i haven't i can't
                                         
                                         imagine i i can't see this having having happened anywhere else right that a government could stay
                                         
                                         in power given this kind of opposition it's unbelievable frankly it's unbelievable it really
                                         
                                         is i you know yes i i think the the most credible pathway is for gallant who's a member of the prime
                                         
                                         party to break and take five or six others with them. And then the government falls.
                                         
                                         But that probably won't happen until the end of October.
                                         
    
                                         And we'd be almost at the U.S. election.
                                         
                                         Right?
                                         
                                         Right.
                                         
                                         Yeah.
                                         
                                         Well, what we saw.
                                         
                                         Are we farther away than we were when we signed off for the summer?
                                         
                                         Yes, we're farther away.
                                         
                                         There's no question.
                                         
    
                                         And not only farther away, but Iran signaling it's holding its fire until it's clear whether
                                         
                                         there's going to be a ceasefire or not, right?
                                         
                                         It's not going to retaliate.
                                         
                                         But if these negotiations break down, Peter, then Iran faces a terrible dilemma.
                                         
                                         It's committed to retaliate, even though it might not want to.
                                         
                                         So look what's riding on this.
                                         
                                         Yes.
                                         
                                         All right.
                                         
    
                                         Let's take a break and then take a crack at the other great international story that's still with us after two and a half years now.
                                         
                                         We'll do that right after this.
                                         
                                         And welcome back.
                                         
                                         You're listening to The Bridge, the Tuesday edition for this week.
                                         
                                         But we're starting off our week, our first week back since the summer with Janice Stein,
                                         
                                         as we usually do on Mondays.
                                         
                                         Monday was a holiday, of course.
                                         
                                         So Tuesday, Janice Stein is with us from the monk school,
                                         
    
                                         where she's once again in charge there.
                                         
                                         They can't stop going to her to try and keep that place going.
                                         
                                         Okay.
                                         
                                         We've discussed the Middle East and it's clear we're going to be talking about it many times again.
                                         
                                         By the way, you're listening on Sirius XM channel 167 Canada Talks
                                         
                                         or on your favorite podcast platform.
                                         
                                         Have to say that every once in a while.
                                         
                                         Okay, so here's my little history lesson for today
                                         
    
                                         as we move into the discussion about Ukraine and Russia.
                                         
                                         In 1943, it was actually 44 when D-Day happened,
                                         
                                         and most people say that was the moment that turned the war.
                                         
                                         Well, some historians will say the actual turning of the war happened in 1943
                                         
                                         with the great battle, tank battle, around Kursk.
                                         
                                         Right.
                                         
                                         Where the Soviets defeated the Nazi army at a huge cost.
                                         
                                         Thousands and thousands of dead, thousands of tanks destroyed on both sides.
                                         
    
                                         The tank battle in Kursk, for many, was the deciding factor in that war.
                                         
                                         That's when the pendulum started to swing.
                                         
                                         I think that's right, Peter.
                                         
                                         That was the largest tank battle.
                                         
                                         Yep.
                                         
                                         Still, as of today,
                                         
                                         even though that Iran-Iraq tank battles
                                         
                                         didn't come close to what happened on Kursk.
                                         
    
                                         Okay, why do I mention this?
                                         
                                         Well, Kursk is the center point
                                         
                                         of what's happening,
                                         
                                         at least on one side,
                                         
                                         in the Russia-Ukraine war.
                                         
                                         And this is the, in the last month, Ukraine has moved into Russia, and they
                                         
                                         gathered around the city of Kursk, of all places, causing the Russians great
                                         
                                         discomfort.
                                         
    
                                         Russians have claimed that they're making a bit of a recovery in other areas,
                                         
                                         but nevertheless, the Ukrainians are still there,
                                         
                                         the Ukrainian army, pushing inside Russia.
                                         
                                         And drones attacking everywhere, everywhere you look.
                                         
                                         Drones have become the weapon of choice on both sides,
                                         
                                         and they're making huge gains from from both sides here's the question
                                         
                                         Putin this weekend says
                                         
                                         basically suggests it really is time to start talking seriously about peace and some kind of ceasefire and peace deal between the two of us.
                                         
    
                                         Is he serious?
                                         
                                         Is he serious?
                                         
                                         Who knows, right?
                                         
                                         Even though, you know, it's one man.
                                         
                                         We're talking about two enormous stories.
                                         
                                         Both cases, the decision of one man who's very difficult to read.
                                         
                                         Is it more plausible that he's interested now?
                                         
                                         Yes, because if you talk about this Russian, this Ukrainian incursion to Russian territory, Kursk, which is so
                                         
    
                                         symbolic. First time
                                         
                                         since the Nazi
                                         
                                         invasion that Russia has
                                         
                                         been invaded.
                                         
                                         It's the first time a nuclear power
                                         
                                         has ever been invaded.
                                         
                                         It's land.
                                         
                                         Has ever been invaded.
                                         
    
                                         Now,
                                         
                                         I'm going to go out on a limb here
                                         
                                         and say this invasion makes no military sense
                                         
                                         for the Ukrainians.
                                         
                                         It is, they rolled the dice.
                                         
                                         Ultimately, they did it in the hope
                                         
                                         that Putin would pull some of those forces
                                         
                                         out of the front line that's advancing
                                         
    
                                         in the Donbass,
                                         
                                         threatening to take control of a town,
                                         
                                         of course, that is the railway hub,
                                         
                                         and it would be a really serious loss
                                         
                                         if that goes for logistical purposes.
                                         
                                         That's what they were hoping for.
                                         
                                         But I think it was a larger object,
                                         
                                         and he hasn't done it.
                                         
    
                                         He hasn't done it, right? And so I think it was a larger object and he hasn't done it he hasn't done it this is for Putin
                                         
                                         a very very controlled reaction
                                         
                                         he sent
                                         
                                         Chechen border guards
                                         
                                         and untrained
                                         
                                         conscripts to
                                         
                                         Kursk to stall
                                         
                                         the Ukrainian offense
                                         
    
                                         and to dig defensive lines
                                         
                                         so what's the larger political, you know, thinking behind what Zelensky did?
                                         
                                         He wants a bargaining chip.
                                         
                                         So that when he gets to the table, he has something, something to trade.
                                         
                                         And he's signaling to the Russians, look, this is not going to be cost-free,
                                         
                                         and the speculation is rife right now, Peter,
                                         
                                         both in Kiev and Moscow,
                                         
                                         that this is not the last assault,
                                         
    
                                         that the Ukrainians are so desperate
                                         
                                         and they're losing territory inch by inch in the Donbass
                                         
                                         that they will strike at other border areas.
                                         
                                         That's a reasonable incentive for Putin to come to the table.
                                         
                                         Zelensky is a peace process, so-called going maximalist.
                                         
                                         And he says he's going to have one meeting very early in the fall. And then he sent the message, but we want Russia to come to the table right after that.
                                         
                                         And Zelensky has been talking to Modi in India, to Xi Jinping in China, I think probably with less success there.
                                         
                                         So you're beginning to see circling around the very beginnings of some sort of political discussion between them.
                                         
    
                                         Are you surprised that Putin is appearing somewhat, he's almost patient.
                                         
                                         I mean, here he gets, you know, he threatened the first year of the war and the second year of the war that anything that came anywhere near Russia would spark a nuclear reaction.
                                         
                                         Well, that hasn't happened.
                                         
                                         And it's not just Kursk.
                                         
                                         It's all these drones flying in, flying into Moscow, hitting, you know, big buildings.
                                         
                                         Oil refineries.
                                         
                                         Exactly.
                                         
                                         Ten kilometers outside of Moscow, right?
                                         
    
                                         There was an attack on an oil.
                                         
                                         Ten kilometers. That's very short.
                                         
                                         So are you surprised?
                                         
                                         I mean, is he being patient or he just doesn't have the ability to react in a military fashion
                                         
                                         that would be conclusive for him in some fashion?
                                         
                                         Like what's happening in that Putin mind?
                                         
                                         You know,
                                         
                                         look,
                                         
    
                                         we,
                                         
                                         we've talked about this,
                                         
                                         both Ukraine and Russia don't have enough highly trained combat units.
                                         
                                         Neither one of those leaders wants to go through another mobilization because
                                         
                                         of the domestic costs of doing it.
                                         
                                         Zelensky doesn't want to do it and hasn't done it.
                                         
                                         And Putin doesn't want to do it again.
                                         
                                         And so that's why when this happened,
                                         
    
                                         he doesn't have enough highly trained combat-ready forces
                                         
                                         to pull out of the front, Peter,
                                         
                                         or behind the front lines
                                         
                                         that he could have sent his reinforcements to curse.
                                         
                                         That tells you something, that for both of them, this cannot be a forever war.
                                         
                                         When you're facing manpower shortages, it doesn't matter how great your drones are and
                                         
                                         how great your long range missiles are.
                                         
                                         When you have a ground war, the only way
                                         
    
                                         is you have to take territory
                                         
                                         and you have to have
                                         
                                         boots on the ground.
                                         
                                         And in both cases, they're not enough.
                                         
                                         I think that's the constraint
                                         
                                         for Putin more than anything else.
                                         
                                         But
                                         
                                         I am struck by how
                                         
    
                                         disciplined he is.
                                         
                                         We've seen it twice. It's really interesting.
                                         
                                         So it's always, you know, when you deal with people like Putin,
                                         
                                         it's important to have a realistic and accurate estimate,
                                         
                                         no matter what you think of him.
                                         
                                         We saw that discipline when Pergosian marched up the highway last year
                                         
                                         in an attempted rebellion
                                         
                                         against the Russian general staff.
                                         
    
                                         Putin waited weeks
                                         
                                         before he arranged an airplane crash
                                         
                                         of Prokofiev's plane, right?
                                         
                                         Weeks.
                                         
                                         He didn't wash out.
                                         
                                         Here this happens.
                                         
                                         He's humiliated.
                                         
                                         Russian military commentators
                                         
    
                                         are chattering nonstop about this. It's absolutely humiliated. Russian military commentators are chattering
                                         
                                         non-stop about this. It's absolutely
                                         
                                         humiliating for him. He
                                         
                                         sends third best troops in.
                                         
                                         They've stopped the forward
                                         
                                         march, but he doesn't take
                                         
                                         his eye off
                                         
                                         the central prize for him,
                                         
    
                                         which is to push forward
                                         
                                         across this critical
                                         
                                         threshold in the Donbass now,
                                         
                                         which would open the door really to a Russian advance
                                         
                                         if they can break through that logistical line of supply.
                                         
                                         Very disciplined.
                                         
                                         What would happen if they did?
                                         
                                         Would they march on to Kiev or like when?
                                         
    
                                         You know, they tried it once.
                                         
                                         So anybody who says they wouldn't do it again, you know,
                                         
                                         but anybody tells me, well, Putin will never use nuclear weapons.
                                         
                                         I say, how do you know?
                                         
                                         Can you guarantee me that he won't?
                                         
                                         How do you know?
                                         
                                         You know, if in fact, and this is the real risk.
                                         
                                         That's why I said, I, I'm in a minority here.
                                         
    
                                         I think this was a huge gamble for Zelensky to take because he doesn't have, he's thinned out some of his,
                                         
                                         there's 15,000 combat soldiers that were involved in one way or another in this push into
                                         
                                         Kursk. He can't replace them.
                                         
                                         And so as the Russians
                                         
                                         push through,
                                         
                                         he doesn't have the troops
                                         
                                         behind
                                         
                                         to
                                         
    
                                         stop a Russian advance. He's taking
                                         
                                         a real risk here, Peter.
                                         
                                         So I
                                         
                                         think, you know, it's
                                         
                                         interesting, like you were
                                         
                                         saying, which Russian
                                         
                                         official was in discreet and
                                         
                                         talked a little bit recently and
                                         
    
                                         said, Putin
                                         
                                         was shocked
                                         
                                         when that five
                                         
                                         day sweep did not happen
                                         
                                         but then dug in
                                         
                                         and actually gets bad news.
                                         
                                         He hears the, but he asked for it and he gets it and he adjusts.
                                         
                                         Now, you know, autocrats who don't get bad news don't have a long life.
                                         
    
                                         Those are the ones that go first autocrats who have the capacity to hear the bad news and adjust
                                         
                                         they have a much much much longer shelf life and it's clear that putin is tuned in he's hearing
                                         
                                         the bad news he's patient he's disciplined would he take the opportunity if the Ukrainian lines cracked to push as far as he could?
                                         
                                         I'm sure he would.
                                         
                                         But he knows there's a constraint on the manpower.
                                         
                                         He knows that now.
                                         
                                         Last quick point.
                                         
                                         If there is some kind of a deal worked out here, What's the shape of the deal?
                                         
    
                                         Is it a straight up land for land?
                                         
                                         Yeah, you know, I think we're, let me
                                         
                                         just say, I think we're way, I think
                                         
                                         we're at the
                                         
                                         early phase of talking
                                         
                                         about whether there should be talks.
                                         
                                         So,
                                         
                                         it's a very long timeline
                                         
    
                                         ahead for all
                                         
                                         rights that, you know, we're talking a year or something like that at the very best. very long timeline ahead for all rights.
                                         
                                         We're talking a year or something like that
                                         
                                         at the very best.
                                         
                                         But ultimately,
                                         
                                         Putin has a lot more
                                         
                                         Ukrainian land than Zelensky
                                         
                                         has Russian land.
                                         
    
                                         Is it better than having
                                         
                                         no Russian land for Zelensky?
                                         
                                         Yes, it is.
                                         
                                         Yes, it is, but there's a huge
                                         
                                         asymmetry.
                                         
                                         Okay.
                                         
                                         Well,
                                         
                                         if anything...
                                         
    
                                         And an uncertain U.S. election.
                                         
                                         Yeah, exactly.
                                         
                                         Yeah.
                                         
                                         All right, well, that's a
                                         
                                         great start to another year, Janice.
                                         
                                         We appreciate this giving us lots to think about.
                                         
                                         And just six days we'll be back because this is a short week.
                                         
                                         And next week we'll.
                                         
    
                                         I have to say, Peter, that I know it was summer holidays,
                                         
                                         but given the summer we had and the news that broke, I almost emailed
                                         
                                         you. Well, a lot of people did, and they missed their
                                         
                                         Janice hit, and hopefully we made up a little bit
                                         
                                         for that today. We'll talk again in a week's time. Thanks,
                                         
                                         Janice. See you then.
                                         
                                         Wow. So a pretty heavy start to
                                         
                                         year five here on the bridge. As we tackle
                                         
    
                                         these two topics, you know, it's quite something, right?
                                         
                                         When the Ukraine-Russia war started, we thought it was going to be over in a
                                         
                                         week. Here we are two and a half years later.
                                         
                                         We're almost at a year now since the October 7th attacks by Hamas on Israel.
                                         
                                         And there's no end in sight. In fact, there's no real end in sight in either one of these
                                         
                                         situations. Now, they both could end relatively quickly, as unlikely as that sounds. But they also could just stretch on and on and on.
                                         
                                         But that does not mean that every week we don't have something to talk about.
                                         
                                         And, you know, I learned clearly this summer.
                                         
    
                                         I needed a break.
                                         
                                         Some of us really needed a break this summer.
                                         
                                         But I learned very quickly through the summer, how much the Monday episodes of
                                         
                                         the bridge with Janice Stein have meant to so many of you. And, you know, I appreciate
                                         
                                         getting your letters. I'm glad we're back with Janice now. She had a busy summer too,
                                         
                                         as I mentioned there. She, you know, she's one of the founding directors of the Munk School at the University of Toronto.
                                         
                                         But she's, you know, moved on.
                                         
                                         There have been other directors and she's, you know,
                                         
    
                                         devotes her time to conflict management and traveling
                                         
                                         in different parts of the world, attending all these different conferences
                                         
                                         that we benefit from the knowledge
                                         
                                         that she picks up at them.
                                         
                                         But, you know, they've gone to her again this year,
                                         
                                         and I think this is like the third or fourth time
                                         
                                         they've gone to her and said,
                                         
                                         please come back, please get things organized here,
                                         
    
                                         and we'll find a new director,
                                         
                                         and in the meantime, you're back in control.
                                         
                                         And so she is. But fortunately for us,
                                         
                                         she keeps doing the bridge. She enjoys doing it.
                                         
                                         She and I have got a long-standing relationship
                                         
                                         that goes back 30, 40 years.
                                         
                                         So we're lucky to have Janice with us once again
                                         
                                         this year,
                                         
    
                                         and she'll be back next Monday in her regular time slot.
                                         
                                         Okay, tomorrow it's, well, it's Wednesday,
                                         
                                         and that's an encore Wednesday.
                                         
                                         I'm not sure which one we'll play tomorrow,
                                         
                                         but you can rest assured that I'll go back
                                         
                                         and find something from the last year or two that still works out, and that'll be the encore edition for tomorrow.
                                         
                                         Thursday, your turn, and the Random Ranter Friday Good Talk, Chantel and Bruce.
                                         
                                         For Thursday, send along your thoughts.
                                         
    
                                         The Mansbridge Podcast at gmail.com.
                                         
                                         The Mansbridge Podcast at gmail.com.
                                         
                                         Basically, what's on your mind?
                                         
                                         Keep it tight.
                                         
                                         Keep it to, you know, a paragraph or less.
                                         
                                         Include your name and your location.
                                         
                                         And we'll get on that for Thursday.
                                         
                                         All right, then.
                                         
    
                                         I'm Peter Mansbridge.
                                         
                                         Thanks so much for listening today.
                                         
                                         It's great to be back.
                                         
                                         Great to have you with us.
                                         
                                         We'll talk again in almost 24 hours.
                                         
