The Bridge with Peter Mansbridge - Will Netanyahu Ever Agree To A Ceasefire? Is Putin Really Interested in Peace Talks?

Episode Date: September 3, 2024

We begin Year Five of The Bridge with Janice Stein's latest analysis of the two major international crises facing our world. In the middle east, the story remains Israel and Hamas and the Israeli prim...e minister's position on a ceasefire. Benjamin Netanyahu is facing hundreds of thousands of protestors in his own country and an enemy using murderous tactics on the other side. In Russia, Vladimir Putin talks peace, but is he serious?

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 And hello there, Peter Mansbridge here. You are just moments away from the latest episode of The Bridge. That's right, we're back. And so is Janice Stein with the two big issues still facing us on the international scene, the Middle East and Ukraine. That's coming right up. And hello there. Yes, Peter Ransbridge here with you again. A Tuesday morning as we begin a new week and a new year. This is year five of the bridge, which more or less starts today. And we're happy to be with you. Hope you had a great summer. Hope you had a great Labor Day weekend. Are you ready? Are you ready? I think you're ready because I've received more than a few letters over the summer saying, can you please,
Starting point is 00:01:00 can you please bring back Janice Stein? Well, she's certainly back today. And we're going to deal with these, you know, the two big issues that we've spent actually Mondays in the last year. And we will continue on Mondays with Janice starting next week. But today, with a shorter week, we're starting on the Tuesday. And I guess the two big questions on the Middle East front, will Netanyahu ever agree to a ceasefire? A remarkable weekend that we witnessed in Israel over the weekend. And on the Russia-Ukraine front, is Putin really looking for peace?
Starting point is 00:01:43 He made indications over the weekend that he is. Well, we'll have those discussions with Janice coming up in just a couple of minutes. But I wanted to touch base on some of the planning for the rest of this week. And as we head into the new year, a lot of your features are going to be back. You know, the more butts conversations, we're still having those once every, you know, four to six weeks. Those were great. We re-ran all of them once from the last year over the summer, and there was a lot of nice reaction to that.
Starting point is 00:02:19 They'll be back. The Random Rancher will be back on Thursday starting this week. Good talk, of course, with Chantel Hebert and Bruce Anderson starts up again this Friday. So there's lots ahead, plus feature interviews. We've got some great feature interviews coming up in the next little while starting next Tuesday with Ted Barris and his new book that's coming out in the next few days, his new book on the Battle of Britain
Starting point is 00:02:53 and Canada's distinct involvement in the Battle of Britain. I think you'll be surprised when you find out just the extent to which Canadians were involved in the Battle of Britain. So that's kind of a snapshot of what we're looking at over the next weeks and months. In terms of this week, tomorrow, Wednesday. Wednesday is our best-of day,
Starting point is 00:03:22 and it will continue to be throughout this year. Thursday, it's your turn and the random ranter. So what are we going to do for your turn this week? I'd like to hear from you at our email address, themansbridgepodcast at gmail.com, themansbridgepodcast at gmail.com. So don't hesitate. Please write. What I'm looking for for this week for our kickoff, your turn is,
Starting point is 00:03:53 what did you learn about the country this summer? Or what did you learn about anything in particular this summer that perhaps you hadn't thought of before? Now, I'm not looking for an essay. I'm looking for a paragraph, a short paragraph, so we can get as many of these in as possible. All right, something along those lines, or if there's something in particular you want to talk about,
Starting point is 00:04:20 you know, what you've seen, what you've witnessed, what you want to talk about, include that as well. Or make that a separate. But once again, the shorter the answer, the more likely it is that it's going to get on the air. Remember to include where you're writing from and your name. Your name and the location in which you're running from. And a short version of what's on your mind. It can be what's on your mind, what you heard this summer,
Starting point is 00:04:52 what you learned this summer, what you want to hear talked about. In the next while, I get a lot of those letters. We try to accomplish as many as we can. But our format, once again, remaining straightforward. Mondays, Janice Stein, International Affairs. Tuesday, a feature interview or a feature story of some kind. Wednesdays, Best Of. Thursdays, Your Turn in Random Ranter.
Starting point is 00:05:17 Fridays, Good Talk. So there you go. There's your little setup for year five of the bridge. Glad to have you with us. And, you know, I've missed you guys too, but I've enjoyed the summer. Lots of travel, being different parts of the country, from British Columbia to Newfoundland. Didn't get north this summer, which, you know,
Starting point is 00:05:43 you know how much I enjoy getting to the Arctic. Didn't get there this year, so that will be next year's assignment, to get back up to the Arctic. All right, enough talk from me. Let's hear a talk from the person you love to hear from, and that is Janice Stein, the Director of the School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, the Munk School at the University of Toronto. Glad to have us with us, as always.
Starting point is 00:06:16 So let's get right at it. Here we go. Our conversation to start year five with Janice Stein. Well, let me start this way, Janice. It seems to me we're on the Middle East. We're further off today than we were the last time we spoke in mid-June. How can that be? You are right.
Starting point is 00:06:38 We are further off. To my astonishment, Peter, we are. I think the reasons are now crystal clear. After six weeks of intense effort by the United States to get this over the line, really intense, and they haven't given up yet, but they're on the verge of giving up. So what are the reasons? Yes, and war is reason number one, frankly, here. He's the head of the military operation for Hamas.
Starting point is 00:07:09 Of Hamas, yes. And he's supposedly still in Gaza. He's supposedly still in the tunnels somewhere in Gaza. And actually, after the head of the political wing, Hania, was assassinated by Israel in Iran, Yair Sinwar was promoted. He is now the head of Hamas, of both its wings. So you think about that one, you assassinate and infuriate Iran, and then you get the leader who is most extreme in his demands. There's no give on Timur's part, largely because he's been hoping against hope that his ball will escalate, that Iran will escalate, and that he will reach the objective that he's had right from the beginning which is a regional
Starting point is 00:08:06 war in this part of the world that's what he's wanted and he's come very close this summer he's come close but he didn't get it at least he hasn't got it yet that's right and i think that's why the united states is going to give this one more go, because Hezbollah engaged in what we might call a performative attempt. Israel responded in a performative way. Clear message. We do not want to push this over the brink. Iran threatened a fierce retaliation, has pulled back for a whole variety of reasons. So I think the U.S. calculation is right now,
Starting point is 00:08:53 Sinwar has to realize that at the very most, the West Bank may well explode, but nothing else. And this is the time really to make this last effort. The other one is Netanyahu. And I watched his press conference yesterday. And if you watch the body language, there were hundreds of thousands of Israelis on the streets after the murder of the six hostages. There were funerals going on.
Starting point is 00:09:29 There was a general strike. Hard to remember, Peter. There isn't really a parallel to this where a prime minister faces this kind of concerted protest by people who say we've lost confidence. Well, he gave a press conference and the body language, if you watched it, angry, determined, aggressive, and used, you know, classic Netanyahu tools. He had a pointer and a map. You may remember when he went to the UN and did that about Iran.
Starting point is 00:10:15 Well, he showed the Philadelphia corridor and made an argument that that was the only border through which the military equipment could be struggled, smuggled. Just to clarify, this is the border basically between Egypt and Gaza. And Israel wants control of that border so it can monitor whatever's passing back and forth. That's exactly right, Peter. That is the single most important issue that is holding up a ceasefire agreement now. And the military arguments are real because a tremendous amount of stuff got into Gaza,
Starting point is 00:11:02 despite the Egyptian presence along that border, despite the best technical means that people had. And the fact that Sinwar is clinging to it like this, it's so important to him, of course, only reinforces Netanyahu's argument on the other side. Control of this border matters. But that's not what the Israeli general staff is saying. They're saying at this point,
Starting point is 00:11:32 you trade away that extra security in order to release the hostages. That's what the minister of defense, the Israeli minister of defense, said in a stormy cabinet meeting on Thursday night where the cabinet voted to maintain control of that border
Starting point is 00:11:51 and he lost it in the meeting and screamed at them that they had to make a choice now between rescuing the remaining hostages who are alive. There are 100 on the list hostages who are alive there are 100 on the list if 60 are alive peter um that would be a lot frankly um and that's the choice that squarely confronts
Starting point is 00:12:19 um netanyahu right now He made it so clear today. He's not going to back down. What are the Americans offering? If that is the single last issue on the table between the two, I mean, would either side accept some kind of international peacekeeping force or what have you to monitor that thing i i assume the americans have must have suggested that yeah it's got look that's the only kind this is how the united states broken deadlines in the past right um between egypt and israel they've done that kind of thing this This is really tough, though, because this is Egyptian territory.
Starting point is 00:13:09 Let's just remember that that border at the foot of Gaza, that is the one border where Gaza and Egypt are joined. The Egyptians considered this an affront to their sovereignty. They have sided with Hamas because, of course, under the terms of the Egypt-Israel Treaty, which was signed way back in 1982, part of that treaty forbids any Israeli soldiers on any Egyptian territory without the consent of the Egyptians. So not only do they have to find some way of monitoring this force, they have to satisfy the Egyptians that their sovereignty will not be violated and not humiliate the Egyptians in the process. It's a real tough one.
Starting point is 00:14:03 And we might, you know, just add one more sentence here. We, there might be technical means by which this could be done, right? You could put the most advanced sensing cameras all along that fence and on the ground. Well, yeah, that was the fence that was built on the other border with Gaza. Right.
Starting point is 00:14:24 A billion dollars and Hamas sent drones, unarmed drones, against that fence on October the 7th to disable the cameras, the sensing equipment, and the machine guns that were on that fence.
Starting point is 00:14:41 Well, you know, I watched Netanyahu as well. And listen, I'm no defender of Netanyahu. But I was trying to say, okay, well, if I'm in that position, what do I say here? You've got these hundreds of thousands of people protesting, and for good reason. And they're mad, and they want him gone. They're furious.
Starting point is 00:15:06 Any deal he cuts now, short of protecting that border, will eventually be seen as some kind of a sellout. If he put himself in the worst possible spot, right? If he cuts a deal now, it is worse than a sellout. He's caving in. He's caving into U.S. pressure, right?
Starting point is 00:15:34 He's rewarding Hamas. If he had made this deal four weeks ago when the Israeli chief of staff gave him the green light, go do it. If he'd done it then, that would have been entirely different. But to do it now and after giving that press conference today,
Starting point is 00:15:53 and Joe Biden said these are the leaks coming out of the White House last night and this morning, that they're going to put one last offer on the table. How many one last offers is this now? The third. The third, one last offer, but then they're going to walk away. I wish they'd never said before. You know, there's an NSC official, I suspect Jake Sullivan, who said
Starting point is 00:16:26 at some point you have to cut bait here if there's no fish. And so there was a, because they look you know, this whole effort makes the United States look ineffectual, weak
Starting point is 00:16:41 as well. I mean, you can imagine how much the Chinese are enjoying this, Russians are enjoying this, and others who are watching this. And Trump's enjoying it. And Trump's enjoying it. You know, I watched Lindsey Graham over the weekend. You may have seen him as well. And, you know, Lindsey Graham only has a degree of credibility
Starting point is 00:17:02 on any number of things right now, given his past few years. But at one point when he was asked, what would you tell Trump to do? Or what would you tell Biden to do? It was the question. And he said, there's only one thing Biden can do, and that's threaten Iran. Because Hamas is nothing without Iran. So you've got to get to Iran and say, you've got to end this thing, and if you don't, our retaliation will be against you.
Starting point is 00:17:38 So end it now. Now, that sounds great. I don't know how you actually make that happen. But, you know, the threat against Iran from the me let me say bluntly i couldn't disagree more strongly with lindsey graham this is this is rolling the dice you know in a region that has set to explode let's just put it that way but if you actually look the military assets the u.s has deployed in the middle east there are two big warships. There is a nuclear submarine that it's unprecedented for the United States to announce publicly. They never tell you where their submarines are. They deliberately announce where that submarine is because submarines,
Starting point is 00:18:42 that's an offensive weapon. That is not used to strike down incoming missiles that Iran might fire as part of its retaliation. Those missiles have offensive capability. So they have signaled in every way to the Iranians, don't retaliate, don't retaliate. This war could escalate in ways, frankly, that could engulf the whole region. But they have also said, and they've said it again to Netanyahu recently, we are not with you if you either preempt against Iran or retaliate in a large-scale attack
Starting point is 00:19:28 in response to an Iranian attack. So I think he is just, I think Lindsey Graham is willfully winding to the risk of a much more dangerous war for everybody. Second of all, I think he gets the relationship wrong between Iran and Hamas. For sure, the Iranians have funded and supplied Hamas, you know, less so than Hezbollah, because Hamas is Sunni,
Starting point is 00:20:04 and Iran is, of course course a majority Shia country. So there's always been these tensions. They've been papered over, but they're there. But it's not a command and control network anymore. The easiest way to say this, Biden cannot control Netanyahu. You'd think he could. It is Israel's only remaining ally.
Starting point is 00:20:33 Israel desperately needs their diplomatic support. It could not prosecute the war without the military equipment that the United States continues to resupply. And yet Biden cannot force Netanyahu to the negotiating table. It's always been a myth that these are puppets. So he's wrong on both counts. Well, it wouldn't be the first time that Lindsey Graham has been wrong.
Starting point is 00:21:01 But we, I mean, we can see the card he's playing. I mean, he's playing the Trump card right yeah yes but let me go back to Netanyahu because one of the things he said in that news conference was nobody pushes me around which seemed to be directly aimed at Biden yeah right so where does that leave us because at this point I mean if he'd said that six months ago we'd sort of say yeah sure but it's six months on you know lots happen in six months
Starting point is 00:21:35 and Biden's basically gone right so nobody pushes me around um what's astonishing peter and i would never have expected this um the public after iran retaliated in april the public opinion polls start to turn and nathaniel's popularity began um to recover 67 still say they want this guy gone but nevertheless and and and we've seen this so many times under direct threat from iran you know and iran did launch ballistic missiles that's something something that the Israeli public has not experienced ever. You rally around the flag. What you heard today,
Starting point is 00:22:33 you cannot push me around, is Netanyahu preparing to run against Joe Biden in the next Israeli elections when they come. I stood up to the prime minister. And in that press conference, he literally said it. He was so angry. And again, watching his body language, he said,
Starting point is 00:22:53 they tried to stop me from going into Rafa. And I stood up to them. And I didn't listen to them. And so that's how he's going to run. He is going to run against Biden. He feels freer to do it now because Biden's gone. Less risk for him to do it. And of course, there's a U.S. election.
Starting point is 00:23:17 And having a prime minister of Israel run against the Democratic president, you can see where he might think there's advantages to doing that in a very close U.S. election. So what that tells me is Biden will only push up to a certain point, but he won't want to force an open rupture before November. Now, what happens on November the second week after November after that Monday that's a different story because he also I can tell you
Starting point is 00:23:50 from friends of friends who work in the White House you know what I mean he's livid just livid and you saw today or Monday when he got off his plane coming back to the White House one curt word about Netanyahu and that's it.
Starting point is 00:24:10 Yeah, that was pretty clear. And he's shown that a couple of times in the last few weeks. He's furious. He's really furious. Tell me about the Netanyahu coalition such as it is. I mean, there's the parliamentary coalition and then there's the military coalition. And it's clear that some of his generals don't agree with the tact he's taking. But that coalition is holding. We
Starting point is 00:24:40 thought at times that it was fractured, the Benny Gantz issue, but it's still holding. So, you know, let's talk about the military level first, then let's go to the political level, because the military level is a professional army. And who are the, they're really, you know, there's the chief of the general staff.
Starting point is 00:25:05 He's absolutely critical. There's somebody very wounded by October the 7th. Happened on his watch. But he has come out in cabinet meetings where he's briefed the cabinet and said, trade away that Philadelphia border. Trade away that control of that southern border in order to get the hostages in. I think that's a big piece of it, and also the army is tired.
Starting point is 00:25:35 They need, because this is, again, as everyone knows, a draft army, a civilian army. People get mobilized. This is the fourth time in less than a year that some people have been called up for 10, 12 weeks of service in some cases. So he wants a pause in the fighting at this point. Add on to that the head of the intelligence community, Ronan Barr,
Starting point is 00:26:04 who's responsible for gathering the intelligence community, Ronan Barr, who's responsible for gathering the intelligence. And Ronan Barr's head of what's called the Shinbait, which, and as well as the head of military intelligence, both of them agree with Olivia, the chief of the general staff. They told the prime minister in the cabinet room, because they've gone to the cabinet meetings, and said, we openly disagree with this.
Starting point is 00:26:32 We want you to trade away, control the border for now. If we need to go back in, we'll go back in. We can do it in eight hours. So he's getting, so this is a prime minister who's standing against the advice of all the senior military people in the country. That last quarter was
Starting point is 00:26:51 Minister of Defense, who comes from his party. Said the same thing. And it's blown open. Gans, former chief of the staff, but he came from a different political party. This is Yoav Galant who comes from Likud,
Starting point is 00:27:10 from the prime minister's party. So you have to ask yourself, how long does Galant stay? Five Likud members have to walk away from this government. Now, there's just one material fact here. Parliament is in recess in Israel. Doesn't come back till the end of October. So, yeah.
Starting point is 00:27:40 It's hard to imagine that a parliament could be in recess when the country's at war and there are hundreds of thousands of people in the streets it's just like i i haven't i can't imagine i i can't see this having having happened anywhere else right that a government could stay in power given this kind of opposition it's unbelievable frankly it's unbelievable it really is i you know yes i i think the the most credible pathway is for gallant who's a member of the prime party to break and take five or six others with them. And then the government falls. But that probably won't happen until the end of October.
Starting point is 00:28:29 And we'd be almost at the U.S. election. Right? Right. Yeah. Well, what we saw. Are we farther away than we were when we signed off for the summer? Yes, we're farther away. There's no question.
Starting point is 00:28:45 And not only farther away, but Iran signaling it's holding its fire until it's clear whether there's going to be a ceasefire or not, right? It's not going to retaliate. But if these negotiations break down, Peter, then Iran faces a terrible dilemma. It's committed to retaliate, even though it might not want to. So look what's riding on this. Yes. All right.
Starting point is 00:29:21 Let's take a break and then take a crack at the other great international story that's still with us after two and a half years now. We'll do that right after this. And welcome back. You're listening to The Bridge, the Tuesday edition for this week. But we're starting off our week, our first week back since the summer with Janice Stein, as we usually do on Mondays. Monday was a holiday, of course. So Tuesday, Janice Stein is with us from the monk school,
Starting point is 00:30:00 where she's once again in charge there. They can't stop going to her to try and keep that place going. Okay. We've discussed the Middle East and it's clear we're going to be talking about it many times again. By the way, you're listening on Sirius XM channel 167 Canada Talks or on your favorite podcast platform. Have to say that every once in a while. Okay, so here's my little history lesson for today
Starting point is 00:30:36 as we move into the discussion about Ukraine and Russia. In 1943, it was actually 44 when D-Day happened, and most people say that was the moment that turned the war. Well, some historians will say the actual turning of the war happened in 1943 with the great battle, tank battle, around Kursk. Right. Where the Soviets defeated the Nazi army at a huge cost. Thousands and thousands of dead, thousands of tanks destroyed on both sides.
Starting point is 00:31:13 The tank battle in Kursk, for many, was the deciding factor in that war. That's when the pendulum started to swing. I think that's right, Peter. That was the largest tank battle. Yep. Still, as of today, even though that Iran-Iraq tank battles didn't come close to what happened on Kursk.
Starting point is 00:31:36 Okay, why do I mention this? Well, Kursk is the center point of what's happening, at least on one side, in the Russia-Ukraine war. And this is the, in the last month, Ukraine has moved into Russia, and they gathered around the city of Kursk, of all places, causing the Russians great discomfort.
Starting point is 00:31:59 Russians have claimed that they're making a bit of a recovery in other areas, but nevertheless, the Ukrainians are still there, the Ukrainian army, pushing inside Russia. And drones attacking everywhere, everywhere you look. Drones have become the weapon of choice on both sides, and they're making huge gains from from both sides here's the question Putin this weekend says basically suggests it really is time to start talking seriously about peace and some kind of ceasefire and peace deal between the two of us.
Starting point is 00:32:49 Is he serious? Is he serious? Who knows, right? Even though, you know, it's one man. We're talking about two enormous stories. Both cases, the decision of one man who's very difficult to read. Is it more plausible that he's interested now? Yes, because if you talk about this Russian, this Ukrainian incursion to Russian territory, Kursk, which is so
Starting point is 00:33:26 symbolic. First time since the Nazi invasion that Russia has been invaded. It's the first time a nuclear power has ever been invaded. It's land. Has ever been invaded.
Starting point is 00:33:43 Now, I'm going to go out on a limb here and say this invasion makes no military sense for the Ukrainians. It is, they rolled the dice. Ultimately, they did it in the hope that Putin would pull some of those forces out of the front line that's advancing
Starting point is 00:34:03 in the Donbass, threatening to take control of a town, of course, that is the railway hub, and it would be a really serious loss if that goes for logistical purposes. That's what they were hoping for. But I think it was a larger object, and he hasn't done it.
Starting point is 00:34:23 He hasn't done it, right? And so I think it was a larger object and he hasn't done it he hasn't done it this is for Putin a very very controlled reaction he sent Chechen border guards and untrained conscripts to Kursk to stall the Ukrainian offense
Starting point is 00:34:41 and to dig defensive lines so what's the larger political, you know, thinking behind what Zelensky did? He wants a bargaining chip. So that when he gets to the table, he has something, something to trade. And he's signaling to the Russians, look, this is not going to be cost-free, and the speculation is rife right now, Peter, both in Kiev and Moscow, that this is not the last assault,
Starting point is 00:35:13 that the Ukrainians are so desperate and they're losing territory inch by inch in the Donbass that they will strike at other border areas. That's a reasonable incentive for Putin to come to the table. Zelensky is a peace process, so-called going maximalist. And he says he's going to have one meeting very early in the fall. And then he sent the message, but we want Russia to come to the table right after that. And Zelensky has been talking to Modi in India, to Xi Jinping in China, I think probably with less success there. So you're beginning to see circling around the very beginnings of some sort of political discussion between them.
Starting point is 00:36:07 Are you surprised that Putin is appearing somewhat, he's almost patient. I mean, here he gets, you know, he threatened the first year of the war and the second year of the war that anything that came anywhere near Russia would spark a nuclear reaction. Well, that hasn't happened. And it's not just Kursk. It's all these drones flying in, flying into Moscow, hitting, you know, big buildings. Oil refineries. Exactly. Ten kilometers outside of Moscow, right?
Starting point is 00:36:42 There was an attack on an oil. Ten kilometers. That's very short. So are you surprised? I mean, is he being patient or he just doesn't have the ability to react in a military fashion that would be conclusive for him in some fashion? Like what's happening in that Putin mind? You know, look,
Starting point is 00:37:08 we, we've talked about this, both Ukraine and Russia don't have enough highly trained combat units. Neither one of those leaders wants to go through another mobilization because of the domestic costs of doing it. Zelensky doesn't want to do it and hasn't done it. And Putin doesn't want to do it again. And so that's why when this happened,
Starting point is 00:37:33 he doesn't have enough highly trained combat-ready forces to pull out of the front, Peter, or behind the front lines that he could have sent his reinforcements to curse. That tells you something, that for both of them, this cannot be a forever war. When you're facing manpower shortages, it doesn't matter how great your drones are and how great your long range missiles are. When you have a ground war, the only way
Starting point is 00:38:05 is you have to take territory and you have to have boots on the ground. And in both cases, they're not enough. I think that's the constraint for Putin more than anything else. But I am struck by how
Starting point is 00:38:21 disciplined he is. We've seen it twice. It's really interesting. So it's always, you know, when you deal with people like Putin, it's important to have a realistic and accurate estimate, no matter what you think of him. We saw that discipline when Pergosian marched up the highway last year in an attempted rebellion against the Russian general staff.
Starting point is 00:38:49 Putin waited weeks before he arranged an airplane crash of Prokofiev's plane, right? Weeks. He didn't wash out. Here this happens. He's humiliated. Russian military commentators
Starting point is 00:39:04 are chattering nonstop about this. It's absolutely humiliated. Russian military commentators are chattering non-stop about this. It's absolutely humiliating for him. He sends third best troops in. They've stopped the forward march, but he doesn't take his eye off the central prize for him,
Starting point is 00:39:20 which is to push forward across this critical threshold in the Donbass now, which would open the door really to a Russian advance if they can break through that logistical line of supply. Very disciplined. What would happen if they did? Would they march on to Kiev or like when?
Starting point is 00:39:45 You know, they tried it once. So anybody who says they wouldn't do it again, you know, but anybody tells me, well, Putin will never use nuclear weapons. I say, how do you know? Can you guarantee me that he won't? How do you know? You know, if in fact, and this is the real risk. That's why I said, I, I'm in a minority here.
Starting point is 00:40:09 I think this was a huge gamble for Zelensky to take because he doesn't have, he's thinned out some of his, there's 15,000 combat soldiers that were involved in one way or another in this push into Kursk. He can't replace them. And so as the Russians push through, he doesn't have the troops behind to
Starting point is 00:40:37 stop a Russian advance. He's taking a real risk here, Peter. So I think, you know, it's interesting, like you were saying, which Russian official was in discreet and talked a little bit recently and
Starting point is 00:40:53 said, Putin was shocked when that five day sweep did not happen but then dug in and actually gets bad news. He hears the, but he asked for it and he gets it and he adjusts. Now, you know, autocrats who don't get bad news don't have a long life.
Starting point is 00:41:21 Those are the ones that go first autocrats who have the capacity to hear the bad news and adjust they have a much much much longer shelf life and it's clear that putin is tuned in he's hearing the bad news he's patient he's disciplined would he take the opportunity if the Ukrainian lines cracked to push as far as he could? I'm sure he would. But he knows there's a constraint on the manpower. He knows that now. Last quick point. If there is some kind of a deal worked out here, What's the shape of the deal?
Starting point is 00:42:05 Is it a straight up land for land? Yeah, you know, I think we're, let me just say, I think we're way, I think we're at the early phase of talking about whether there should be talks. So, it's a very long timeline
Starting point is 00:42:21 ahead for all rights that, you know, we're talking a year or something like that at the very best. very long timeline ahead for all rights. We're talking a year or something like that at the very best. But ultimately, Putin has a lot more Ukrainian land than Zelensky has Russian land.
Starting point is 00:42:42 Is it better than having no Russian land for Zelensky? Yes, it is. Yes, it is, but there's a huge asymmetry. Okay. Well, if anything...
Starting point is 00:42:57 And an uncertain U.S. election. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. All right, well, that's a great start to another year, Janice. We appreciate this giving us lots to think about. And just six days we'll be back because this is a short week. And next week we'll.
Starting point is 00:43:18 I have to say, Peter, that I know it was summer holidays, but given the summer we had and the news that broke, I almost emailed you. Well, a lot of people did, and they missed their Janice hit, and hopefully we made up a little bit for that today. We'll talk again in a week's time. Thanks, Janice. See you then. Wow. So a pretty heavy start to year five here on the bridge. As we tackle
Starting point is 00:43:50 these two topics, you know, it's quite something, right? When the Ukraine-Russia war started, we thought it was going to be over in a week. Here we are two and a half years later. We're almost at a year now since the October 7th attacks by Hamas on Israel. And there's no end in sight. In fact, there's no real end in sight in either one of these situations. Now, they both could end relatively quickly, as unlikely as that sounds. But they also could just stretch on and on and on. But that does not mean that every week we don't have something to talk about. And, you know, I learned clearly this summer.
Starting point is 00:44:37 I needed a break. Some of us really needed a break this summer. But I learned very quickly through the summer, how much the Monday episodes of the bridge with Janice Stein have meant to so many of you. And, you know, I appreciate getting your letters. I'm glad we're back with Janice now. She had a busy summer too, as I mentioned there. She, you know, she's one of the founding directors of the Munk School at the University of Toronto. But she's, you know, moved on. There have been other directors and she's, you know,
Starting point is 00:45:16 devotes her time to conflict management and traveling in different parts of the world, attending all these different conferences that we benefit from the knowledge that she picks up at them. But, you know, they've gone to her again this year, and I think this is like the third or fourth time they've gone to her and said, please come back, please get things organized here,
Starting point is 00:45:38 and we'll find a new director, and in the meantime, you're back in control. And so she is. But fortunately for us, she keeps doing the bridge. She enjoys doing it. She and I have got a long-standing relationship that goes back 30, 40 years. So we're lucky to have Janice with us once again this year,
Starting point is 00:46:05 and she'll be back next Monday in her regular time slot. Okay, tomorrow it's, well, it's Wednesday, and that's an encore Wednesday. I'm not sure which one we'll play tomorrow, but you can rest assured that I'll go back and find something from the last year or two that still works out, and that'll be the encore edition for tomorrow. Thursday, your turn, and the Random Ranter Friday Good Talk, Chantel and Bruce. For Thursday, send along your thoughts.
Starting point is 00:46:38 The Mansbridge Podcast at gmail.com. The Mansbridge Podcast at gmail.com. Basically, what's on your mind? Keep it tight. Keep it to, you know, a paragraph or less. Include your name and your location. And we'll get on that for Thursday. All right, then.
Starting point is 00:46:56 I'm Peter Mansbridge. Thanks so much for listening today. It's great to be back. Great to have you with us. We'll talk again in almost 24 hours.

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