The Bulwark Podcast - A.B. Stoddard: A Most Delicious Circular Firing Squad

Episode Date: December 8, 2022

Republicans need someone to blame besides Trump, so Laura Ingraham is turning on the RNC, Kellyanne is turning on Jared, and a rump group in the Senate is turning on McConnell. Plus, Democrats are a little too high on hopium. A.B. Stoddard joins Charlie Sykes today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

landlord telling you to just put on another sweater when your apartment is below 21 degrees? Are they suggesting you can just put a bucket under a leak in your ceiling? That's not good enough. Your Toronto apartment should be safe and well-maintained. If it isn't and your landlord isn't responding to maintenance requests, RentSafeTO can help. Learn more at toronto.ca slash rentsafeTO. Welcome to the Bulwark Podcast. I am Charlie Sykes, once again joined by our good friend A.B. Stoddard, Associate Editor and Columnist at Real Clear Politics. First of all, good morning and Merry Christmas, A.B., if I don't talk to you before the holidays.

Charlie, it's great to be with you, and I'm excited about your holiday. Well, I'm looking forward to it. And I'm going to have a nice quiet one, but we are all excited to hear in the new year about your trip across the pond. Well, thank you. And the reason I mentioned it's good to have you back is because I was just mentioning right before we started the podcast that I actually had you on the podcast two years ago to the day, December 8th, 2020, and I'd kind of forgotten about it. But you and I were sort of reminiscing about that. What a surreal month December 2020 was. I've actually been going back

and reading some old stuff and that whole period after the election, but before the insurrection, we knew that bad stuff was going to happen. I mean, there was that ominous sense, but I don't think that any of us could have predicted that it was going to be as bad as it turned out to be. It is. Surreal is the only word for that period, because when we look back on it, we feel almost sick, right, that we were in this suspended reality where we knew that Trump was not likely to leave the White House on January 20th without thewark saying he was going to destroy the party. And that was before the insurrection, before the Georgia runoff city intentionally tanked. And then before he told Ronald McDaniel on Air Force One leaving Washington right before Biden's inauguration that indeed he would leave the party to punish Republicans for not sticking up for him and overturning the election for him. And we knew that there was some kind of, you know, coup plot underway. We knew that. We knew that they were running around the states trying to beg state legislators to do this and that. But it was just

this simmering tension about what the fiery end would be. We all did say things like, you know, we're a little concerned about the attention paid to January 6th and the tweets he was sending out. But we did not think anyone would make it past the security perimeter and into the Capitol. Surely we never imagined that. And I think it was more what was going to be like on the morning of the inauguration when they tried to get him to joint base Andrews. It is really surreal to look back. And we were just anxious. And we were trying to be relieved about Trump losing. But it was such a such a strange, strange two months. This is why I feel like we're kind of caught in a doom loop, because it was last week that you wrote a piece saying Trump is going

to burn it all down. And then you made reference to two years ago when you wrote Donald Trump is going to destroy their party, not because he wants to, or even because he is trying to, but because the destruction of the GOP will be required in order to fulfill his psychological needs. And of course that was right. And I keep scratching my head. Well, that's actually, you know, an understatement. I keep asking, you know, our good Republican friends, including the anti-anti-Trump Republican friends, what did you think was going to happen? How did you think this was going to end? I mean, there's a certain vindication in watching them all go, hey, you know what? This Trump thing is not working out for us.

This is electoral poison. We're going to keep losing. You know, maybe this was not a good idea. And yet you look back two years ago, three years ago, four years ago, five years ago, six years ago, I'm sorry, seven years ago. And everything that's happened was completely predictable in the sense of if you understood who and what Donald Trump was. So welcome to the freaking party for many of these folks, because Donald Trump was always going to burn it all down.

And yes, there's this belated recognition of it. But, A.B., this was known. This was out there, wasn't it? So let's talk about where we're at right now, because all the stories are how completely isolated he is, what a complete shambolic failure his announcement was. All of the knives are out. By the way, that's already become a tired cliche about the Republican Party. And there's all this second guessing.

But, of course, we come back to this age-old question. So what? What will they do about it? I mean, the defeat of Herschel Walker in Georgia sort of just caps, underlines, boldfaces, whatever, however you want to put it, you know, the loser nature of MAGA. But will it make a difference to you? That's what's so interesting about their dilemma. By acquiescing all along and pretending that these pathologies and psychological needs, which I feel like Pete Wehner and I are the only ones in this town willing to actually, you know, consistently talk about, this is his mental wiring, right? They've known it all along.

It's not even his personality. It's just, He wakes up every day intent to finding new ways to stay on offense. That's what Newt Gingrich said about him in 2016. And destroying things is what fuels him. Offense, recrimination, retribution, revenge is what fuels him. So they've known this all along. This is how he's wired. And now their dilemma is, how do we figure out how to just ghost Donald Trump? This is not possible. And so are they going to, just because the elites are upset now that they've lost elections

with some bummer candidates who turn off swing voters, are they going to change the sentiment, the minds of MAGA? No, the voters will make this decision on their own about dumping Trump. And until and unless they do, that's the burden and that's the obstacle for the party, which couldn't stop an insurgency in 2016 and certainly is not organized enough now to keep the field small and knock him out somehow if he keeps his 35%. And again, they need to wrestle with the

fact that he either wins or they lose. That's the name of the game for Trump. Well, and as you explain, you know, Trump isn't afraid of Bill Barr. He doesn't care what Larry Hogan or Paul Ryan say. You know, he doesn't care that John Bolton says he's old and tired. I mean, none of those things make a difference. It doesn't matter that National Review has decided, you know, after all, maybe not Trump, you know, never again. None of this matters to him, right? Right. And I'm sorry, I apologize to the listeners because we keep sort of coming back to this.

But, you know, right now, the Republican Party, to the extent that there is a Republican Party at all, and there's an asterisk behind that, is done with Trump. They want to move on from Trump. They recognize that Trump is a complete disaster, that Trump may be the only major candidate that would lose in 2024. That's what they're telling themselves. But I don't see what their exit strategy is. I don't think they have an exit strategy. I don't know how it ends. When Donald Trump basically stands up, you know, it is either me or the deluge, right? I will pull the temple down around me. I am fully prepared to fiddle down here at Mar-a-Lago while the entire country burns. How do you deal with somebody like that? And again, you were warned about this over and over and over again, and you don't have anybody to blame.

Which, by the way, makes me think about another piece you wrote. And I think you made this case that the most embarrassing, shameful vote among many cast by Republicans was when Republicans had the chance to rid themselves and the country of Donald Trump in that second impeachment trial. And they didn't take those Republican senators who now own everything that's happened since. It just infuriates me. You know, we're all going through this, Charlie, this welcome to the club. Now you're pretending that Trump is a disaster and you didn't know it in 2015. And all of us who really suffered in some cases, you know, ramifications with our career, with friends, with relationships, with connections to colleagues, all sorts of things in our lives,

by coming out and saying this seven years ago, and deciding to stick with it, you know, do or die, while we were accused of having Trump derangement syndrome. It's frustrating in a lot of ways, because when I would go to members and senators and say, you and I both know he won't leave the White House if he loses, they would say, there is no need to talk about this. Oh, that's not going to happen. And they pretended that they didn't know. What's the downside of humoring him? Really? He was never going to go. And so that's what's so frustrating is that they abetted him. But but yes when you come back to that fateful day february 13th 2021 the senate republicans who you can't really blame house republicans a they're in the cycle every two

years but most of them are too stupid to know what's going on they're not in the exact like inner circle of washington senators are are. John Thune and Mitch McConnell and John Cornyn, they knew everything that Pat Cipollone knew. They were in the inside track. They knew everything we've learned from the January 6th committee hearings in real time or within a few days after the insurrection. They know all of that. And yet they voted to acquit him and not get rid of him. If they had voted to get rid of him, the MAGA base would have freaked out and, you know, burned things out of their vans in the streets with their, you know, Trump t-shirts for a

few weeks. But then they would have moved on to find the next fighter, right? The next gladiator. And we would be done with Trump. And so Mitch McConnell is having all these Sharon Engel and Todd Akin and Richard Murdoch flashbacks after losing the Georgia runoffs again with Herschel Walker and on and on. But really, that was his moment, right? It was to just say to enough people, I know I won't get Ron Johnson, but come on, let 17 of us hold hands and jump off. And they didn't do it. No. And well, and then he spent $54 million trying to get Herschel Walker elected to the United States Senate. So there is that. So let's talk about

Herschel Walker for a moment, because I have been saying, I was going to say I was going to argue, but I think it's so obvious that it's not really an argument that Herschel Walker may have been the worst candidate in this cycle of really embarrassing candidates. And I asked Mark Leibovitz yesterday on the podcast, can you remember a candidate this bad? And we couldn't come up with anybody afterwards. I thought, well, Roy Moore would be in that category. You know, that you put up somebody like Roy Moore, you know, the creepy stalker who managed to lose an absolutely unwinnable election in Alabama. But Herschel Walker, uniquely, uniquely awful. And I guess I'm watching all the punditry

and people are trying to, you know, understand, you know, why Walker didn't win. I think it's so obvious. I think it's more depressing that he did as well as he did. But I'm looking at some of these numbers. In the 10 metropolitan Atlanta counties, which made up about the same share of the statewide vote as they did back in 2004, these counties have shifted from the Republicans to the Democrats by an average of or a cumulative amount of 42 percent, a 42 percent shift in the vote in just those counties. These are big counties around Atlanta. This would be for this race. But I want to get your take on all this because there's kind of a debate going on about what's happening here. Georgia's not a blue state. Georgia's still a red

state. Every other Republican won. All of the evidence suggests that Republicans, in fact, did turn out in big numbers this year, that they did turn out, that it was not a, you know, Republican sitting on their hands. They turned out, but a lot of them just would not vote for Hershel Walker, which would suggest that, you know, the decisive element in this campaign was independents and Republicans who just wouldn't go along with MAGA. Do you have a different take on this? No, I agree with you. I think they would have gone along with MAGA. They wouldn't go along with Walker. The most fascinating, fascinating anecdotes is from Sarah Longwell's focus group on this, where this woman says, I showed up on election day. I'm lifelong Republican. I voted straight Republican ticket for Brian Kemp and Walker, but I actually can't do it again.

I mean, just the abject, ludicrous nature of Walker as a candidate, you know, trying to send him to the Senate, the way he was used. It was such a turnoff to so many independents and Republicans. I think it did drive up a lot of black turnout because they were really insulted that Herschel Walker was being used, you know, as a black Republican to run against a black Democrat. They were really resentful of that. And I think that the Democrats used that effectively. But I think that you're right, that the margin, the decisive margin in a state that just elected Kemp by eight points was Republicans who said,

I just, that man needs to go home. He shouldn't go to the Senate. Like, I feel sorry for him, and I can't vote for him. And that was decisive. But I agree with you, Charlie. Yeah, if only there was a name for Republicans that wouldn't vote for, say, Donald Trump or Herschel Walker. There was only a term to describe those Republicans. I'm sorry. But I agree with you, Charlie, that I think that, you know, Biden barely won Georgia. That's great for him. Republicans lost those runoffs because of Trump telling rural Georgian Republicans on January 5 that it was rigged. You know, Raphael Warnock is extremely impressive, you know, away from his Senate career as a reverend.

He has won four elections in a row. The man needs to go to sleep for four months. And I think it's great that he's earned a six-year term. But it's really, if you look at it, thanks to Walker, he came way too close. Republicans turned out for him in the day of vote in very impressive numbers. Brian Kemp's ground game truly helped him. And with all of Herschel Walker's, you know, just the embarrassment of him, the incompetence, just being so unfit, he still gave Warnock a run for his money. So, yeah, I don't think the Democrats can look at Georgia and say, I mean, it's slightly purple, but Republicans really aim to get it back under control. And I think that they're going to do that from now on. You know, we used to play a game, you know, in the early Trump years, asking, so what would it actually take if shooting somebody in the middle of Fifth Avenue would not turn off votes? What would it take? And the only thing that I could come up with was if it turned out that Donald Trump actually paid for an abortion from one of his mistresses. That was the only one. Of course, since then, it's obvious that not even that would make a difference. But I think Georgia demonstrated in rather cartoonish fashion that if you are a right-to-life conservative Republican and it is revealed that you paid for one or more abortions,

would it actually make that much of a difference? And the answer is really no. I mean, we're not at the point now where it's hard to imagine any scandal that would, the kind of normal scandal that used to derail Senate candidates, Republican candidates, and that would certainly still derail any Democratic candidates. It's hard to imagine any story now in this era that would turn off the Republican base. It's really hard for me to swallow, actually. And it must be for someone like you, because of your pro-life views and your personal story and your journey through this i mean charlie i watch evangelical and deeply faithful christian republicans and catholics and all of them who are pro-life voters in 16 say that trump was it was a binary choice and they had to support him because of the issue of

abortion. I respect that. He was going to choose the judges he promised on the Federal Society shortlist to overturn Roe versus Wade. And that was their, you know, that was their goal of that coalition. The Herschel Walker story has just, is really exposed that these voters wanted another vote in the Senate more than they wanted to stop abortions. And someone like Herschel Walker is like a Saturday Night Live version of a candidate that would expose the ambition of the true driving force of pro-life voters. It's really ugly. Yeah, it is really ugly. And I'm going to keep coming back to this point that Nate Cohn makes in the New York Times that, and this is really an important lesson to learn from this, is that there are still Republicans out there. They still vote for Republicans. The turnout by Republicans was great. They just refused to vote for this particular guy.

And the final New York Times Siena poll showed that voters in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada preferred Republican control of the Senate. And yet in each state, they did not elect the Republican Senate candidate because they hated the candidate. And in each one of those cases, the candidate had been handpicked by Donald Trump. This is in bright red letters. In Pennsylvania, Republicans turned out, but Dr. Oz didn't win. In Arizona, Republicans turned out, but Blake Masters didn't win. In Nevada, Republicans turned out, but Paul Laxalt didn't win, etc. And it does seem to have settled

into at least the Republican elites that there's one common denominator here, which is they have to have somebody to blame for all of this. And so let's talk about that for a moment, the circular firing squad. I am not going to carry any water whatsoever for Ronna Romney McDaniel, but it is fascinating. All the people, you know, the skies have opened up and the finger of God has written, it's fucking Donald Trump. And they go, look at that, Ronna McDaniel. We have to do something about Ronna McDaniel.

I mean, just talk to me about that. I mean, she is craptacular. She is sycophantic. She's been ineffective. But I'm sorry, how do you blame her for this? I have to tell you, first of all, yes, there is what you pointed out about Republican turnout is kind of amazing, because if you're the RNC or people who are doing ground game and trying to juice Republican voters, you're saying, wait a minute, I really tried. Our GOTV was above par and we worked our butts off. But there is a universe

where Mitch McConnell is majority leader again with senators, Doug Ducey, senators, Chris Sununu, Senator Chris Carr or Senator Doug Collins from Georgia and Senator David McCormick from Pennsylvania. This is so easy to imagine, too. That would have happened. Okay, I'm sorry. The most delicious circular firing squad. I have not had this fun in a long time, watching Laura Ingraham turn on Rana, but then Kellyanne Conway nervously on her panel the other night, Kellyanne Conway, Fox News contributor now, trying to stick up for Rana and sort of blame other factors. Other factors. You've got the RNC challenger to Ronna,

this Harmeet Dhillon person going on Tucker. You've got Kellyanne Conway turning on Jared Kushner on Fox saying that, you know, he made billions in the White House and he's a friend of Kanye's and why doesn't he start answering questions? You've got Andy Biggs turning on Mark Levin and Mark Levin turning on Andy Biggs as Andy Biggs is trying to run for speaker. And you've got poor Lindsey still trying to stick up for Trump. And Don Jr. is still wearing his number 45 and number 47 T-shirt. The whole thing is the most beautiful clown car. I hope it lasts for months.

I couldn't be enjoying it more. And there's a rump group now in the Senate, an official, like as McCarthy is undergoing all this in the House, trying to become speaker, there's now like an official rump group that's turned on McConnell. So they can't take him down. But they're officially bonding together to be a pain in his ass. It's just too much fun. It is. Matt Lewis has a column today, MAGA is eating itself after GOP's disaster. And he runs through some of these MAGA on MAGA feuds, which really kind of make no sense when you think about it. I mean, for example, Matt Gaetz versus Marjorie Taylor Greene. I mean, what is that about? Or Laura Loomer against Marjorie Taylor Greene. And what it is, is of course, you've

created this ragtag group of grifters and trolls and conspiracy theorists and narcissists, and they're all now jockeying for position. It's not about anything except power so that, you know, as Trump fades, there is kind of this vacuum, or maybe the better analogy would be, you know, as the tide goes out, you see all the detritus that's left behind, all the garbage and the crap and everything. But it is interesting, the way they're all turning on one another. But the Ronald McDaniel thing is interesting because I think the human mind actually requires some sort of rationalization anytime something like this happens. And the political mind, which is not,

of course, irrational, necessarily, they always have to find a scapegoat. And in this particular case, this is the humor of it, because the responsibility is so obvious. And yet, you know, what was it Lindsey Graham saying? No, no, no, it's not Trump. Trump had nothing to do with this. It was fundraising. Oh, yes, fundraising. These of Hershel Walker just had 10 million more dollars. People wouldn't have cared. I'd what? I don't 10 million more dollars, people wouldn't have cared. I'd what? I don't know. I mean, money's important, but this was not about fundraising. That is the best response to the midterms from the Republicans. A, blame Trump when, yes, Trump's a factor with those candidates, but they also have a huge abortion problem that they

refuse to confront. And then they blame Ronna. And the problem for them going forward is that they have these things are falling back on on process. So they come for themselves. They say it was a green wave. They outspent us eight to one here and three to one. And then it was the intervention by big tech. And then it was early voting, which, of course, is all Trump's fault. So now they're upset that no one early votes in their party or does mail in ballots because Trump has told them all that that's a rigged fake system. And so the process things, you know, that's fine to tell donors to send more money and they were outspent, but they're not actually really dealing with the fact that the MAGA voters

nominated these candidates and they wanted them. And then you had, you know, young people turning out, I think just solely on the issue of abortion and that they really are going to have to reckon with. I mean, I don't think they'll do it. But, you know, a smart candidate trying to make a play for 2024 would stand up now and say that many of the trigger laws that don't include exceptions are too severe and they're going to cost them electorally. But they're looking for any reason that they can to, they can't blame the MAGA voters. No, no, no. So they're blaming Trump, and then they're blaming Rana, and then they're finding anything they can except, you know, to deal with the real problems that they have.

And I think the Democrats are, you know, obviously, because they're in a better position, they're sort of just as blind to their deficits as well. Well, let's get to that in a moment. I mean, I think the Republicans, you know, have figured out that, yes, all of those things are true, but their salvation is Hunter Biden's laptop, which I mean, do you know there were dick pics on which is that they may be finished with Trump, but he is not finished with them. You wrote, Rana Romney, Romney, McDaniel, who has rigged the RNC for Trump after he tried to steal an election by paying his legal bills, buying Don Jr.'s books, and censoring Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger, has no secret plan to keep Trump on the team, nor does anyone who would defeat her for RNC chair. This I think we just need to remind people of.

There is no plan. There is no scenario. No one has a roadmap in which Donald Trump goes away without setting off the world's greatest political shit bomb in his wake. You know? Right? It's so true. There's no gold watch they can give him, a promise of a pardon from Ron DeSantis,

you know, the imminent nominee. There's nothing that makes him go nicer quietly. His objective is to destroy. And he either gets to be the nominee or he destroys the party. No one else gets to win. And Ronna McDaniel, God love her. She's facing a challenge from this harm meat Dylan who has some, I guess her firm represents Trump.

That person's not going to take on the real truth, which is that they can't nominate Trump. I mean, it's just so crazy, the level of denial. And I guess you have to do that, right? When you don't have a plan, when there is no way out, you're just totally trapped. You say things like, let's nominate Glenn Youngkin. You know, you just keep on talking delusional talk to yourself because I mean, really, I don't really know what they can do. It'll be interesting to see what this woman who's challenging McDaniel is, what kind of a platform she's running on.

It doesn't matter. I mean, really, I don't know. Yeah, I will suck up harder. I mean, what? I don't know. I want to get to your point about the Democrats being in a little bit of denial. I think they're in sort of a bubble of glee at the moment. But since we're a few weeks away from Christmas, would you like, like, lump of schadenfreude in your stocking?

Always. Okay. Because I always worry about having too much schadenfreude, but I don't think that's possible at this time of year. I want you to think just for a moment about Devin Nunes. Devin Nunes, okay, resigned his seat in Congress to go run this huge, new, hot website, right? And this hot website would become even huger because of all the people kicked off of Twitter.

Well, not only is Devin Nunes' new website just a complete dumpster fire, but all those people who left Twitter are now back on Twitter. And Devin, I quit this seat in Congress. The most important thing is not just that he left his seat in Congress. He was the unchallenged, unrivaled, next Ways and Means president. And now what's also so fun is that Vern Buchanan is one of the contenders, congressman, one of the contenders for the Ways and Means chairmanship. And if he doesn't get it, he might retire and not for the next congressman, which means that McCarthy has another vacancy and a smaller margin.

I mean, the whole thing is so crazy. But yes, Devin Nunes, I couldn't be happier for him, Charlie. No, I sort of have this picture of him. Like he's sitting in his corner office. The rest of the floor is completely barren. You know, all the wires are hanging from the ceiling. And all of the desks have sort of crap all over them. And no one's there.

And he's there. And there's just like one phone on his desk and he's just waiting for his master's voice. And it's like, you know, I was going to be the CEO of this. Okay. All right. Too much. Too much. Don't want to have an overload on this.

If this doesn't pass after four hours, please consult a physician. Let's talk about the Democrats for a moment, because you made a point in passing. I mean, obviously, there's a lot of vindication, a sense that, OK, now we have the wind an hour back. We now have a mandate to continue doing more of what we had been doing. So talk to me about that. What lesson should Democrats take from all of this? Because they're feeling pretty jiggy about this election. Yeah, I think you're right. I think they're sort of high on, they're euphoric, right? And so they're

not seeing the reality, which is that they face a dismal map for the Senate in 2024, when they have to defend a whole bunch of seats in all the swing states, Pennsylvania, Arizona, you know, across the board, Wisconsin, one after another of the most important battleground states. And then, of course, they have red state Democrats up. And while Manchin, you know, will likely do fine, you've got to worry about John Tester in Montana, Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Sherrod Brown was last reelected in a Democratic year, 2018. And if Republicans, for some reason, shake Donald Trump and get their act together, Ohio is a very red state. We all know that. So looking at that, that they have to contend with that. They have this, you know, will Biden run again, should he run again issue. And I think

that they need to just really sober up about the fact that voters did not rescue them because they were sitting there thinking, and I want to back up and say, I think that Biden and the Democrats record with these margins of getting, you know, the CHIPS and the PACT Act and the most significant gun reform in 30 years and a bipartisan infrastructure bill and codification of same-sex marriage and all these, I think these are hugely consequential and extremely impressive in this polarized country, given the margins they have in these chambers. I think it's amazing.

And I'm a huge fan of bipartisan cooperation. But I don't think the voters were like going to the ballot box, thanking the Biden administration for those accomplishments. And, and for the fact that gas prices, you know, lowered here and there, I think that they were thinking about abortion and these freaky candidates that the Republicans had put up and an election denial. So that problem for the Democrats going forward is they don't have a mandate, nor does Biden in terms of thinking that he's made history with this election, you know, since 1934, no state legislature losses. Since 1912, no incumbent senator loses, defying all the historical trends for the House,

which is like an average of 27 seats. Anyway, this is no mandate for him to run again either. And so they have a lot of reflecting to do, and their party is also facing a real pivot point. And they really shouldn't ignore it. I think they need to start over, and they need to make some changes. And I don't think anyone over there is in a mood to do that. No, I don't think they are. In some ways, though, the election results, and many of our listeners will hate this, election results saves them from any future overreach, at least in the next two years. They're not going to pass some massive new spending bill, some massive new experimental bill, the kind that Republicans would exploit, because I think that the focus is going to be on the insanity of the Republican House and what they're going to do. I wanted to get your take on this. We had an interesting piece in the Bulwark yesterday by Joe Perticone, who notes that, okay, you know, Republicans have made it absolutely clear that they're going to be doing 24-7 investigations of the Biden family,

but less attention to what Democrats are going to do in the Senate, because they now have the gavel and they have the majority on all the committees. What is your sense about how aggressive Democrats are going to be in their own investigations, including maybe picking up the fallen standard of the January 6th House Committee, looking at the Kushner crime family? What do you think is going to happen over there? And what should they do? Well, it seems like they are interested in the Kushner family. I think that as they tell voters that Hunter Biden's laptop and his dick pics are not going to lower anyone's price of gas and address inflation and put food on the table, I think that they also risk, you know, going too far trying to counter program House investigations with Senate investigations

that Democrats control. So it's probably one of those things where if I were advising them, I would say, you know, when your enemy's digging a hole, you just let them keep on digging. I mean, the problem with Biden running again, Charlie, is that if the Hunter Biden investigation gives Joe Biden some exposure and reveals some liability there, then they have succeeded. If Joe Biden insists on running again, if Joe Biden... Which it looks like he does. Right. I mean, doesn't it feel that it feels like that's a settled issue? Yeah. And that's I'm really surprised by that, because I don't think Joe Biden is in any physical condition to promise this country at age 82.

He has not even served two full years, Charlie. He has two more in this term. And the man is tired. I think he can handle the next two years, but I don't think he's in any shape to tell the country that at 82, he can serve until 86. So that's my, Democrats will throw food at me about this, and I'm fine with that. I'm sticking with this. He is too old to run for a second term, in my opinion. If he says he's not going to run for a second term, it totally blows the Hunter Biden investigation up. It's like a waste of money, a waste of time. Nobody cares. And I think that's, you know, that's the best course for the party is a fresh new leader, you know, just dump all over the Hunter Biden investigation by Joe Biden, you know, stepping from the stage. Then it also takes the air out of the impeachment balloon, on and on. But if they're going to get into Hunter and there is some problem in those investigations politically for Joe Biden, that's a problem for the whole Democratic Party. And so that's why if you balance that aggressive investigations on the

Senate side, it may not help them. Yes, I think I agree with that. On the other hand, I think that this is also an opportunity to put everything into context to remind people that the obsession with Hunter Biden is what led to Donald Trump's first impeachment when Donald Trump tried to extort Ukraineurrilous, vicious attacks on Ukraine remind people of their pro-Putinism and put that in those contexts. But I don't disagree with you. I think that the entire discussion of Joe Biden, though, really at bottom, as I listen to people talk about it, it relies on the hope that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee, because the hope is that, yes, everything you said about Joe Biden may be true, but he is still more likely than not to be able to defeat Donald Trump. But if Republicans somehow, miraculously, rid themselves of Donald Trump and they come up with a younger, more vigorous nominee, then they have a real problem. And I think that they need to game that out as well. Do they want to go up against a younger, more vigorous, even MAGA type like Ron DeSantis,

particularly if the electorates, you know, sometimes the electorate just gets in a mood and the electorate wants to turn the page. And, you know, what Democrats did not see in 2016 was that that was a change election. Voters wanted change. What did Democrats do? They said, hey, how about Hillary Clinton? Voters said, no, we told you we want change. If voters in 2024 are in the mood for change, turning the page, a younger generation moving ahead, you know, again, if Republicans nominate Donald Trump, Biden's in good shape. If Republicans move on, then I think that changes the dynamics. And but I don't I don't know whether political parties are this nimble. I mean, you and I on a podcast can talk about all of this, but it doesn't matter. Right. I mean, because political parties

don't actually go into a room and make these decisions. No, they can't choose candidates anymore. I actually think if Donald Trump is running, he's going to be in such pathetic shape that, okay, yes, I know if he's nominated, then he has a chance of winning. I understand that. And actually almost won in 2020, minus like 44,000 votes. And I'm very terrified of Donald Trump ever being president again. And I take it very seriously, the threat of that. But I'm saying that I think that Joe Biden is going to be so much older two years from now at 82 than he is at 80, because of how much I've watched him age between 78 and 80, that I believe that he shouldn't go up against Trump and that a flailing, aggrieved, older Trump against a fresh, vigorous, competent, you know, Midwesterner on the Democratic side actually would really, I think he'd really, Trump would

really struggle. And you're right. I mean, if, look, if Ron DeSantis is up against Biden, Biden has a real problem. It's just the party nominating Biden is setting themselves up for a crisis. It's really Biden, that Biden's setting the party up for a crisis. It's really Biden. Biden's setting the party up for a crisis. You know, he's going to be in office at age 82 for another four years where he's going to have a health event. And it's just irresponsible in my view. Yeah. I'm going to put myself down as agnostic at this point on all of this. So let me just ask you one other question, though. And we're doing this almost in passing at the very end of the podcast. Carrie Lake is still out there.

OK, are you old enough to remember when Carrie Lake was the hottest thing in Republican politics, when she was the heir apparent, when she was the superstar, the queen of MAGA like three weeks ago? Well, she is full into election denial. You know, she is actually posting videos endorsing that truth social blurt from Donald Trump recalled for terminating the Constitution. And she's still railing and trying to get that old vibe back. In Arizona, they just seem to have completely decided they're going to ignore her. They certified the election. And I don't know, am I missing something? But it's just not playing. Nobody's paying attention. And I wonder whether or not this is one of those things that has

changed, that election denialism just seems tired. It seems irrelevant. It's not even jigging up the MAGA base. I won't believe it's over with until I see people in the 2024 field against Trump say that Biden was freely and fairly elected and that the election was not stolen and that election denialism is bad for their party with independent voters. Yeah. Hey, speaking of election denialism, etc., is Congress going to pass the Electoral Count Act revision in this lame duck session? I mean, we were told they were going to, and I keep looking around and going, okay, they're going to do gay marriage today. Great, fine, glad they're doing that. They might come up with a spending bill, but weren't we kind of told that they were going to fix the electoral count act? We were told this was going to happen in the lame duck and it is receded from the list of emergencies that they're dealing with. And they also have some disagreements that remain. And so you have Susan Collins, like a chief, you know, negotiator saying it's still on track, but I think it's looking less likely. That would be a painful failure on the part of the legislature. So what else are you keeping an eye on? Is there anything else besides this frantic race for the lame duck session that you're watching? And again,

we're both sitting back in our Barco loungers with popcorn watching what's going on in the Republican House caucus. So do you think Kevin McCarthy ends up being speaker? That's what I'm keeping my eye on, because i think everyone's going to go home for christmas after they take care of the cr or whatever they do on the spending bill and then so much is going to continue to worsen for him because the opponents you know believe that if they can't break him they can extort him and so the extortion that's going on is unbelievable and it's going to get worse with each passing week and And it's clear from Steve Scalise's comments to the press that he might be the catch-all default replacement because he didn't say, he said he's supporting Kevin,

but he was kind of vague about what happens next. And he was also vague about the motion to vacate the chair. Kevin McCarthy is blocking requests from Freedom Caucus people and people who want to overthrow him to permit a motion to vacate the chair, because if he does, then any single day, people can come to the floor and throw him out of his job. And so that's the thing. He can't have that. I mean, as it is, he might not it he might have you know some health event from this job no no sane person would seek this job i don't know that even makes it you know mentally through the two years but no the point is that he's putting his foot down on that and steve scalise's comments this week were so vague about about whether he might step in as a default choice if kevin can't make it He's supportive of Kevin, but we don't really know where it's going. So I think there's a lot under the radar. And it's going to be so interesting to

see, you know, there are Republicans who won in Biden districts. There are moderates who are also more than a dozen, right? I mean, yeah, making demands, and they need to keep their seats in 24. So I mean, it's not, it's not December 8th facing, you know, an insurrection we didn't know was coming, but there's a long, long time between December 8th of 2022 and January 3 of 2023. Right. And in the corner saying me, me, me, me, me, Elise Stefanik. But I think even Elise Stefanik is smart enough to know that no one can handle this job right now. Oh, I think she's so blinded by it. And I want you to know, Charlie, Trump is playing in this matter. He's on the phone with these people. He knows Andy Biggs is running,

and he will put more strain on this process. Oh, see, now this is interesting because had everything not turned out so terribly, you could certainly imagine Donald Trump, you know, really literally handpicking the next speaker by saying, I want so-and-so, right? I mean, he could assure Kevin McCarthy or he could destroy Kevin McCarthy. Now, I'm not sure that he wants to try this, but yes, he still has a stranglehold on that caucus. I look, I just think the theater of this caucus, no matter what happens, is going to be extraordinary. And among the many things that ought to cause a great deal of anxiety among Republicans is how they will look for the next two years, led by this group of jabronis. And you know, the constant bickering and the conspiracies

and the backstabbing that's going to go on it will be absolutely endless and as we mentioned earlier it's not just going to be tension between the normies and the crazies between the moderates and you know the right wing you also have you know the you know the knife fights going on between marjorie taylor green and nancy mace and you know marjorie Greene and Matt Gaetz and all of these folks. And so the theater will be worth the price of the ticket, I think. There's no question, but imagine that we are in the United States of America and the Democratic Party was hoping for the good of the country to spare us from what would happen if we left the debt ceiling negotiations to the Republican majority. And that it will rattle global markets and lead

to some horrible meltdown. And we are now in a position where the Democrats are objectively the normal party, the school principal who keeps things under control. And after this election, the Republican Party is objectively the lunatic, crazy party. And we face such instability with them. So it's not just that it'll just be like a fun, crazy, you know, clown car show to watch. It would be dangerous. Yeah, yes, that we really don't know that there is the unforeseen things happen. And that that part of it, it can't be understated that the business community, you know, the grownups in, I was thinking back to 2010, 2011, after Republicans had this massive victory at the polls and took over control of Congress. In many ways, they resurrected Barack Obama by behaving in exactly the way that you're

describing, by, you know, playing these games with the budget and government shutdowns. So we can have that to look forward to next year. And I hope to talk to you in the new year, A.B. Have a great New Year's. You as well. Enjoy France and thanks for everything in 2022. It's great to be with you and I look forward to talking to you in 2023.

It is always a pleasure. And thank you all for listening to today's Bulwark Podcast. I'm Charlie Sykes. We will be back tomorrow and we will do this all over again.