The Bulwark Podcast - A.B. Stoddard: Insane and Surreal

Episode Date: November 9, 2023

Trump wants to melt the constitutional order, but NBC didn't bother to ask the also-rans about that at their debate. Meanwhile, Vivek would've embarrassed Steve Bannon, DeSantis was less cringy, and normal Nikki may be the last one standing—before she concedes. A.B. Stoddard joins Charlie Sykes.

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Are they suggesting you can just put a bucket under a leak in your ceiling? That's not good enough. Your Toronto apartment should be safe and well-maintained. If it isn't and your landlord isn't responding to maintenance requests, RentSafeTO can help. Learn more at toronto.ca slash RentSafeTO. Welcome to the Bullwark Podcast. I'm Charlie Sykes. It is November 9th, 2023, and we're all hungover from watching the big Republican debate from last night and parsing all of the nuance and the substance and the winners and the—

No, I'm just kidding. I sort of watched it. As I wrote in my morning shots, I knew that I was supposed to be taking notes, but my mind was wandering. And I kept sort of thinking, what would Abraham Lincoln think of Vivek Ramaswamy? What would William F. Buckley Jr.? And I concluded that they would probably be sitting back, probably have started drinking, and thinking, what an insufferable dick this guy is. Okay, so joining me on our post-debate podcast, my colleague, A.B. Stoddard. How are you, A.B.? I'm well, Charlie. How are you? Well, I'm looking for you for the more substantive stuff,

since I was having a hard time sort of getting my head around this kind of runner-up debate where, you know, in theory, it's supposed to be a presidential debate, and you're looking at the stage and going, again, none of these guys are going to be president. They're not going to be the nominee. Some of them are running for podcast revere. Some of them might think they're going to be VP. They're not.

So should we start doing our hot takes here? Before we get started, the elephant who was not in the room, the orange elephant who was not in the room, of course, was Donald Trump. You know, A.B., you and I are both old enough to remember when a candidate refused to debate any of his opponents show up ever. That would be a thing, right? Yeah. Amazing. It sort of barely registers. And in case you missed it, while the also-rans of the Republican Party were having their debate, Donald Trump was having a rally. And of course,

because he is the classiest American president ever, because he does everything first class. He headed Roseanne Barr as his opening act. Did you catch this? That Roseanne Barr was the opening act for the former president of the United States. And in case you missed it, it sounded something like this. Aren't we all fed up with the deep state bullshit? Yeah. Hmm. Hmm. Hmm. Deep state bullshit.

And the bullshit. And the bullshit! We want Trump, the Magador, to kill that goddamn bull! And the bullshit! Kill that goddamn bull! Oh, my. And after that, they had a moment of silence and prayer. Let us pray for traditional values. I don't know, A.B., I was struggling as I listened to that thing.

Okay, was Roseanne Barr ever funny? Was she ever actually funny? I think she was, until the brain worms got her right i mean she was a talented comedic you know actress so she was she might have not written all the best stuff but she was really good with delivery but obviously the brain worms have taken over i hope everyone at the rally was also on edibles so that they could enjoy the primal screen. Yeah, that's right. I actually think that you'd have to have had quite a number of edibles to really appreciate that. Let's kill the goddamn deep state bullshit. So, A.B., this is, I regret

to tell you, this is what our next 12 months is going to be like, I am afraid. Okay, so we're going to get to the substance of the debate, but we might as well start with the high point of Vivek Ramaswamy, who is, I suppose there was a moment a few weeks ago when people were actually taking him seriously, when we were thinking that, oh, hey, he's going to make the surge and he's going to be the inheritor of the MAGA mantle. And, you know, I think he's going to have a great career as a host on Newsmax or whatever. But this was one of the few memorable moments from last night where Vivek Ramaswamy decided that in his campaign to be president of the United States, he was going to go after Nikki Haley's daughter because she was on TikTok. Let's play that. I want to laugh at why Nikki Haley didn't

answer your question, which is about looking at families in the eye. In the last debate, she made fun of me for actually joining TikTok while her own daughter was actually using the app for a long time. So you might want to take care of your family first. Leave my daughter out of your voice. The next generation of Americans are using it. And that's actually the point. You have her supporting her, crapping her up. That's fine that's actually the point. You have her sporting it. Lost the crowd. Cropping her up. That's fine. Here's the truth.

You're just scum. The easy answer is actually to say that we're just going to ban one app. We got to go further. We have to ban any U.S. company. Whatever. You catch that, she goes, you're just scum, which I think is probably a first in American presidential debate history, maybe. What do you think?

Richly deserved, however. It is true that he deserved it. But as I watch it, I was, I was stunned that she said it. And I, I'm sure that she's just angry that she was provoked. And he is so funny that you, when you opened talking about him being a dick because last night in Slack, I called him a prick. He is so god-awful. It's going to be so hard for me to watch the fourth debate, and I regret to inform you, Charlie, that there is one. If he is still on that stage, he has got to go. It's just the most overwrought, punky, his opening attacking Ronna McDaniel, and then the media. It's all Ronna McDaniel, and then the media. It's all Ronna McDaniel's fault. It's not Donald Trump's fault. It's Ronna McDaniel.

Well, every party needs a scapegoat, right? He's so tired at this point. It's so draining to watch him. And the other people loathing him on stage is just also, oh, it's got to end. Oh, they loathed him. This is one thing that has united the Republican Party, at least for the moment. It is the mutual loathing for Vivek Ramaswamy. Okay, so we're only going to spend a few more minutes on him because I share your, can we just move on with our lives?

But there was a moment where I actually had to go back and listen several times. And when I first saw it on social media, I thought, no, they misheard it. Because that does happen sometimes. You know, somebody will say, would you hear somebody say X, Y, or Z? And it turns out that maybe they didn't exactly say that word or was taken out of context. Here, and you correct me if you have a different take on this, he actually calls Volodymyr Zelensky, who is Jewish, the Jewish president of Ukraine, who is fighting for his country's future,

he actually calls Zelensky a Nazi. I mean, it's one thing to have a different opinion about Ukrainian policy. And I think that his entire foreign policy position is completely deplorable, essentially wanting to give up everything to Vladimir Putin, reward Vladimir Putin. I mean, that's bad enough. But listen to this clip. I'm actually enjoying watching the Ukraine hawks quietly, delicately tiptoe back from their position as this thing has unwound into a disaster. The first half of this race, I was the only person standing for it. Now they're actually quietly coming around to being more cautious as they should level with the American people here. Ukraine is not a paragon of democracy. This is a country that has banned 11 opposition parties. It

has consolidated all media into one state TV media arm. That's not democratic. It has threatened not to hold elections this year unless the US forks over more money. That is not democratic. It has celebrated a Nazi in its ranks, the comedian in cargo pants, a man called Zelensky. What? Doing it in their own ranks. That is not democratic. A Nazi in cargo pants. It's basically quoting Putin.

Even Steve Bannon doesn't talk this way. He's really, really radical. Really unbelievable. This would embarrass Steve Bannon. I mean, he went full Alex Jones, but it's an indication of how the Overton window of discourse continues to move in this party. Maybe the one thing that Vivek is going to accomplish will be to make people think, hey, Donald Trump doesn't sound quite as crazy. I mean, he could be like, you know,

like Rev. Swami. Okay, I'm not going to double down on that. All right, so Ron DeSantis was less cringy than usual, but clearly ineffectual. But he did take a couple of sort of slap shots at Donald Trump. Here's DeSantis. Now, if you look where we are now, it's a lot different than we were in 2016. And Donald Trump's a lot different guy than he was in 2016. He owes it to you to be on this stage and explain why he should get another chance. He should explain why he didn't have Mexico pay for the border wall. He should explain why he racked up so another chance. He should explain why he didn't have Mexico pay for the border wall. He should explain why he racked up so much debt. He should explain why he didn't drain the swamp.

And he said Republicans were going to get tired of winning. Well, we saw last night, I'm sick of Republicans losing. In Florida, I showed how it's done. One year ago here, we want a historic victory, including a massive landslide right here in Miami-Dade County. That's how we have to do it. So I promise you this, as the nominee, next November, I'll get the job done. And as president, I will deliver for you. Let me turn to Ambassador Hall.

Okay. Yeah. Your time is up. A.B., your thoughts about DeSantis? So I was really surprised by his performance. I'm not going to use the word impressed, but he was so noticeably more calm and less miserable than he usually is. And he just didn't make me nervous and give me the stomachache that he usually does when he talks. And I do think if you compare Nikki Haley's wimpy, I'll criticize Trump moments to DeSantis there. I thought it was more forceful and more impressive. I don't believe he's going to be the nominee. I don't believe he's even going to end up in a two-man fight with Trump. She criticized Trump on debt, and then she

said that he's gone soft on Ukraine. That's not going to get her anywhere with that audience. Again, I don't think that DeSantis had a shining moment last night. I think his mode when he goes into these debates is to do no harm. But you could just see he was better prepared and more confident in what he was going to do. He did not knock down Nikki Haley. He didn't even seem like he had planned to very well. It was really weird. I don't know what his strategy was. But when I see him performing in these debates, the vibe I get is he just needs to survive the night and not blow up. And he was better at that last night than he has been in the first two. Okay.

So summarizing, you're at the stage of that he doesn't actually make you break out into hives anymore. And he didn't blow himself up. So congratulations. See, I actually had the sense that that speech was, you know, it looks like he's hitting Trump. Not one of those points is going to move a single MAGA voter. It was just sort of reheated, old DeSantis stuff. I won, he lost the debt. I think by now it should be obvious that Republicans, frankly, Republican primary voters don't give a shit about the debt or the deficit. So this felt very Kabuki to me. Yeah, he was less cringy. He didn't score any points, but there was no moment at which I thought he's going to be the last man standing. He's going to be number two. This was a race for number two. I mean, this is like, who is going to be the last man standing. You know, he's going to be number two. This was a race for number two.

I mean, this is like, who is going to be the podcaster? And we're doing a podcast. Who's going to be a podcaster? And who's going to be the last person who has to concede to Donald Trump? I actually thought she did better. I thought she was more forceful. I thought she was substantive. I thought she was poised.

And I have to tell you that, look, I am not a Nikki Haley fan. I have written extensively about her. I think she has made some, shall we say, bad compromises. But I also had this moment where I kind of went to my happy place and thought, our political world would be, even if you disagree with her, would be so dramatically better if you swapped out Donald Trump for Nikki Haley. Look, I know it's not going to happen. I know this is a unicorn. I get that. But in a blink of an eye, we would be in a better place. And from a Republican political, just a pragmatic point of view, she'd be a much stronger candidate in a general election. You look at the polls out of Wisconsin yesterday. Donald Trump loses in Wisconsin. She wins easily in Wisconsin. It's not going to happen. I thought she had a pretty good night,

to the extent that it matters at all, which it doesn't. Right. Well, Charlie, I pledged coming into this podcast after the third debate, since we've done the last two together, not to use the words, what's the point? Because I've reused them in the first two. But you and I swooned for her debate performance in late August. Her best debate, I thought, was the first one. Last night, her abortion answer was, I mean, her Ukraine answer was excellent.

Her abortion answer was better than the first time she gave it. Very good delivery, as always. She's the best political performer. I think she'll probably overtake DeSantis. I completely agree with you. And yes, she totally outpolls everybody in general election matchups with Biden. But to the point you just made about DeSantis, not one of his criticisms of Trump is going to resonate with any MAGA voters, neither are hers. They're not taking him on. They have no real plan to take him on unless he dies or has a health event so

that they would be positioned to succeed him for the nomination should he meet with some horrible twist of fate. So it was so surreal to sort of watch Tim Scott for comic relief be super moved by Chris Christie's substance. He was amazing last night on Ukraine. He said, this is the price we pay. We have no choice. We're leading the free world. He was so moving. And then again, I just sat there thinking, what am I doing? I've lost two hours of my life for no reason. Yeah, this is part of the problem. And we need to keep coming back to this. But Chris Christie alone on that stage is willing to go there and say, look, this is the moment we're in. We are dealing with a guy who is facing multiple criminal counts.

Let's just play Chris Christie, because this is about the only recognition of this giant reality, this big orange cloud hanging over the Republican Party. Anybody who's going to be spending the next year and a half of their life focusing on keeping themselves out of jail and courtrooms cannot lead this party or this country. It needs to be said plainly. Governor, thank you. Yeah. Up until about five minutes ago here that you have the leading candidate for president who is facing multiple felony charges, more than 91 indictments. He's on trial for fraud. He has been found liable for rape. He's facing racketeering charges in Georgia.

He has been charged by the federal government with violating the Espionage Act for absconding and sharing war plans. The federal government is accusing him of deceit, trickery, and fraud in his attempt to overthrow the presidential election. And in New York, they're about to take away his business license because he is such a chronic fraudster and liar. And no Republican can figure out how do we run against this guy? How do we beat this guy? Huh? If only there was something we could use. This is the this disconnect between the moment we're in and then watching these people go through the motions of a pretend debate as if it's 2015 still or something.

Yeah. And just the opening question was the only Trump question. And it was, hello, governor. Hello, Senator. Just tell us why you're a better nominee than Trump. Not good evening candidates. The leader of your party and the former president tried to overthrow our government after plotting a two month coup. Why does he not deserve to be in office? And you do. And how will you plan to take him on? Nothing about that. Kate, this is the part where you get the surreal quality, where you actually have reporters who have a chance to ask these candidates questions. Now, this was a joint venture between NBC and Salem, which, by the way, what a mind-bending coalition there, you know, Salem being no utter shills. They actually have

Hugh Hewitt out there in the state. But yeah, you would think that given the fact that, I don't know, was it last week, last month, that the former president of the United States was suggesting that Mark Milley, General Mark Milley, be given the death penalty? Wasn't it a couple of months ago that the former president was suggesting suspending the Constitution? Yeah. Wasn't it just a few months ago that the former president was having dinner with notorious neo-Nazis? You would think that these things might come up, or the fact that he had suggested suspending the constitution to restore him to power or the fact that any of these cases, none of it came up, AB. I mean, what the, how do you not ask these questions? Also, I mean, there've been extensive reports

about project 25, but the story from the Washington Post about Lester Holt doesn't want to bring this up in his opening question, that the president is planning, openly plotting to melt the constitutional order and our checks and balances and try to use the Department of Justice to go after General John Kelly. Why would that not be the opening question? This is the problem that we're in is that he, like we knew he would be, is being treated like a normal candidate. And because the New York Times-Siena poll was so stunning, but also backed up by the exact findings in the CBS News poll and the CNN poll, the news this week was all about Biden and Trump's general election matchups and not what he is plotting in terms of a centralized sort of mini autocracy in the executive branch in a second term. This does seem to be a relevant

point and a challenge once again for the American media, which has to decide what is news? Is it the horse race? Is it the artificial news of these polls? Or is the news the fact that this man continues to tell us rather graphically what his plans and his intentions are? I think you and I probably have been accused of having Trump derangement syndrome. And I confess that, yes, I probably have. But when we say things like, you know, if he gets back into the White House, it's going to be a campaign of revenge and retribution. Almost on a daily basis, Donald Trump says, hey, hold my beer. Actually, it's not just going to be revenge and retribution. Here's my list of people that I will criminally prosecute. I will criminally prosecute my former chief of staff. I will prosecute these people because

they criticize me. We're going to put maybe the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff to death. Whatever you come up with, Donald Trump is like, wait, no, it's actually more than that. So we're saying he's going to abandon Ukraine. And Donald Trump says, wait, hold my beer. I'm not just going to abandon Ukraine. I'm going to say, fuck you, NATO. I'm going to tell all of our allies that if Russia invades you, then I'm not going to defend you. And, you know, we say, he's kind of got a fetish for authoritarianism. And Donald Trump says, no, wait, wait, wait, wait, hold my beer. I'm going to give another speech where I say how brilliant Kim Jong-un is,

that he must be brilliant to be, you know, the master of North Korea. And yet, here we have the mainstream media going, hey, so what does that latest poll say? So what's the horse race here? It's just like, guys, guys, there's a meteor coming. It's about to hit. Don't look up. I'm sorry. That was my rant. I don't know when it will change. I mean, you know, I guess they're going to have to cover his trials, but then they will acknowledge how surreal it is, right? It'll be a non-normal general election campaign. But his trials don't begin until he's swept the nomination on Tuesday, March 5.

So his first trial date is March 4. So he is the nominee and nothing is going to stop him except for that meteor or that cheeseburger. And the way that this whole primary campaign is being treated, I mean, to see just watching Charlie, the people that are going to have to fully embrace him in a couple of months, you know, watching them squirm, but then watching also just the all in, the all in this, you know, Steve Daines is running the National Republican Senatorial Committee. He's actually supposed to, after their debacle in 2022, be finding really good candidates that can win in swing states. And he's supposed to be appealing to all parts of the Republican Party, even the non-Trump voters, as well as independents and Democrats in places, you know, whatever that they want to take back, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and that's his job. And two months before the voting is even taking place, he says, everyone should just like Pence drop out and just unite behind

President Trump, like the sooner the better, like that'll be better for the party. And this is completely surreal and against the rules. And like you would say five minutes ago would have been like the earth would have opened up. You don't do that. No, no voter has had a say in the primary. And so from, from his crimes to his, you know, his desire to basically make a second term into a dictatorship to the fact that they're not even letting the voters participate in the way that they're making this a coronation. Just at every level, this is such an insane process. You can get a pro at Tread Experts. Ensure each winter trip is a safe one for your family. Enjoy them for years with a Michelin X-Ice snow tire.

Get a $50 prepaid MasterCard with select Michelin tires. Find a Michelin Tread Experts dealer near you at treadexperts.ca slash locations. From tires to auto repair, we're always there Bulldog where you called on Mitch McConnell. Like, Mitch, you're old. You only got a little time left. This would be a moment to go rogue. Yeah. What do you mean?

What do you want Cocaine Mitch to do in his twilight years or months? for months. I just want him to go hard and go rogue and just go uniparty and give himself a legacy, which would involve, obviously, we can all see he's working really hard to try to support the defense of Ukraine. And he's with the majority leader, Chuck Schumer, and the president on this in terms of coming up with a security package that combines assistance for Israel and Ukraine and Taiwan. The Republicans largely are against that. And without getting into the boring details, he is fighting this hard. Yeah. Because he knows that he's only going to be leader until next November. So no matter who wins the election, Mitch McConnell is no longer going to be leader. He's the longest running party leader in the Senate. And he's been the party leader for the Republicans since 2007 in Senate history.

And I just advise him looking at the situation that he's in, you know, he's been miserable since 2015. Does he want to actually endorse Trump in the spring for the third time. Last January, I didn't put this in the column, but when Trump was getting excited, calling Elaine Chao a bunch of racist nicknames, not one of Mitch McConnell's colleagues came out and said, this is disgusting, and came to her defense. The road for him has been so painful. And don't worry, I'm mad at him for a bunch of things. And I put that in the piece. He's no hero, but he could take the Mike Pence, Mitt Romney road and just liberate himself. As you lay this out, he's basically got this buffet of humiliation before him, or he can free himself. Either he has to swallow more insults, more humiliations, right, of Trump, because if he bows the knee to Trump, what happens?

You know, they might win some seats, but he's done. This is not about his majority anymore. So what is his legacy? You know, this is part of the problem. You never know what goes on in people's minds. But like every person has a certain idea of what their life is about and what their legacy is going to be. And it must be an extraordinary moment to have laid in life to begin to realize, wait, maybe it's going to be something completely different. Maybe it's not going to be what I thought 20 years ago or 10 years ago or five years ago.

Maybe those doors are closed now. Maybe I have a completely different and unexpected possible path I could take. And the one you're sketching out, I think is interesting, whether he's capable of doing it, whether somebody in his 80s is capable of saying, okay, I have been this partisan attack dog. Maybe I'm going to go rogue because, you know, the alternative is I have to crawl on my belly in front of someone that I thoroughly despise and who is going to keep insulting me and my family and stomp on many of the things that I believe in deeply. We've seen this so many times, the people who have been willing to sacrifice their self-respect. Like Peter Meyer, the story

out of Michigan continues to blow my mind. I'm going to come back to McConnell in a moment. But Peter Meyer is really still in the middle of his career, the beginning of his career. He was a congressman from Michigan. He's from a wealthy family. He did the right thing after January 6th. He voted his conscience. He voted to impeach Donald Trump, was one of 10. He lost his seat in a primary to a MAGA opponent. And now he's back running for the United States Senate as a Republican. And the first thing he did was to say that, yeah, I would vote for Donald Trump again in 2024.

Having voted to impeach him back in 2021, he would vote again for Donald Trump. And it's one thing to sell your soul. It's another thing to sell your soul when it's not going to work for you. So we've seen it over and over again. Any thoughts on Peter Meyer? Because I mean, he just seems like a type that is familiar to us, but still kind of shocking. I was so stunned and so pissed off by that. I really cannot believe it. It calls up this question, Charlie, which is who is going to hold and who's going to fold? Yeah.

So Peter Myers is like, in the before times, he would have been the rising star and a future in the party. In the before times, Mike Gallagher from Wisconsin would be, you know, a rising star and a future in the party. So is Mike Gallagher going to endorse Trump next spring? Of course. Of course. We're past that now. Who's going to fold?

Is Senator Bill Cassidy, who had the balls to vote to convict Trump, is he going to say, I'm going to vote for the no labels candidate and actually take the hit? Who is going to do this? And so for Mitch McConnell, there should be no question that it's over, that he's not going to eat shit next year only to be ousted as leader. And he's not going to let Rick Scott and J.D. Vance define the end of his life i mean this peter meyer does this incredibly brave thing that could have been the legacy you know the defining you know peter meyer's story through which all future endeavors you know are executed through the prism of this like historic integrity just days into his freshman

term he has members telling him oh i wish i was as brave as you we know the president incited the instruction but we're afraid of the guys going through our garbage and threatening our my wife and my kids on the way to school and peter meyer does it anyway and loses his seat to do this to come around when he knows he's not going to survive the michigan primary is the craziest republican party in the country but it's just such a sign right that they've decided this is permanent and they want to be in the trump dictatorship they can't get off the dictator's treadmill and if they want to be in the circle this is like the Trump stain on the party, the Trump hold to them is permanent. No one's like riding it out till 2032 anymore. Well, and he could, by the way, to your

point, he's young enough that he could go, you know, I'm going to keep my head down. I'm going to ride this out and then I'm going to try again. He's not doing that. But again, this is a very, very clear choice. And we've seen this choice made over and over again. I have a hard time understanding. Well, actually I don't, but I mean, here's a young guy who looks at Liz Cheney and JD Vance and he thinks, I want to be like JD Vance. Or he looks at Adam Kinzinger and Lindsey Graham and he says, I want to be like Lindsey Graham. I want to be like that. That's what I want. What they're really saying is I want this office. I want to be a Senator so badly that I'm willing to contort myself with all of these shapes, which brings us back to Mitch McConnell. What does Mitch McConnell want? He's had everything he could possibly want. He's not going to get a promotion. Does he want an

ambassadorship? Does he want, you know, he's rich? You know, this is the moment where you really have to look yourself in the mirror and say, okay, if you're given everything you want, what do you do with it? What do you want to do when you're out the door? And I don't know what he's going to do, but I'm prepared to be disappointed as usual. Yeah, we have to be. But Charlie, like you said, if you reach a point in life where you realize that your story, that your journey is now going to be defined in another way, wouldn't you want to take back control and not let Ted Cruz or Josh Hawley tell the end of your story or Donald Trump? And I think that's what's so important. It's a great point. It's great stuff. Is what I went through in this piece is how much the party has changed just in the last

12 months. Everyone is looking back at the eight years and you and I have been so deformed by our TDS that we can hardly recognize ourselves or our lives. But look, just in the last 12 months, after the midterm elections, Trump was getting a lot of heat for backing crazy candidates. And Ron DeSantis looks like he could, you know, be a comer and maybe take him on. If you look at the election of Mike Johnson, proving that the big lie is now a litmus test for House Republicans. They will not promote a leader who doesn't deny Joe Biden's free and fair election as president. And you look at Peter Meyer, the Senate committee has basically said right away that Peter Meyer is a nonstarter in that primary. And that's because he voted to impeach President Trump.

And a candidate that normally would be great for a state like Michigan, it's solidly blue. You look at what Steve Daines said, everyone should drop out and rally around. It's like the complete capitulation. I mean, we knew it was coming, but last winter, Charlie, we hoped it wouldn't be this way. And in fairness to those of us suffering from TDS, I think that there were a lot of other Republicans, including the DeSantis camp, that didn't think it was going to be this way, right? I mean, it wasn't the whole theory behind the DeSantis campaign is that there would come a point where Republican voters would say, yeah, we need to move on. We need to take this off ramp. That there was going to be some indictment or

something was going to come along and people were going to be looking at some fresh new face, maybe Trumpism without Trump. That was the whole belief. You had all of these smart Republicans who frankly did not understand how thoroughly corrupted their party had become, or the fact that if you cave in over and over again, you develop the muscle memory of surrender and it's hard to get back. If it's a flat or a squeal, a wobble or peel, your tread's worn down or you need a new wheel, wherever you go, you can get it from our tread experts. Ensure each winter trip is a safe one for your family. Enjoy them for years with the Michelin X-Ice snow tire. Get a $50 prepaid MasterCard with select Michelin tires. Find a Michelin Tread Experts dealer near you at treadexperts.ca

slash locations. So let's talk about the election this week because of course there's a lot of punditry about an off-term election. I was on yesterday with David Plouffe, Obama era pundit, who I thought had some really good points about, hey guys, this is good for Democrats, but we should not engage in irrational exuberance about what it says about 2024, because a presidential election is completely different than these off-year elections. The electorate will be much different. It will be much bigger. These are single issue referendums do not necessarily translate into candidate elections. The electorate will be much different. It will be much bigger. These are, you know, single issue referendums do not necessarily translate into candidate elections. Really good points. But let's talk about this. I mean, from a Republican point of view, it struck me that there are two reasons why they are so depressed this week. Number one, they really

were hoping that somebody like Glenn Youngkin would crack the code of abortion, coming up with a 15-week ban, which polls much better than the six-week ban. And in fact, that turned out not to work. It failed spectacularly. And now they're going, what's our plan B? What's our way out of all of this? What I have been saying is that, at least my preliminary look at this is that while the conventional wisdom had been that a 15-week ban would be so much more popular than a six-week ban, that most voters look at that and they don't focus on the number. They don't focus on the first part of that sentence. They're focusing on the ban. So it's not so much 15 or six, it's ban. And that's toxic.

The second big problem is that MAGA is still a boat anchor around the necks of some Republicans. And you really saw that in Kentucky. So your thoughts about rather surprising results from Tuesday's election? Yeah, I think it was a great night for Democrats in that if it was a bad night for Democrats that it would really spell doom. When you're looking at those general election matchups for Trump and Biden. Charlie, the reason I'm glad to hear that Plouffe was trying to counsel some measure about this, different populations show up and people who show up in off years and special elections and random times when these are held, they're the most engaged. And what will happen next year in the presidential cycle is a wash of highly engaged, I mean, you know, very motivated Trump voters.

And then we're going to have what we're so panicked about is the apathy in the Democratic coalition. So when I look at the Biden is too old argument, A, abortion is not going to save them, right? It was great for Ohio Democrats that abortion was enshrined in the state constitution. That's not going to be on the ballot next year for Senator Sherrod Brown when he's up for reelection in a red state. So it's really a salient issue at the state level, but at the presidential level, how much energy is that going to bring? And will it rescue Joe Biden? Absolutely not. It's good that groups of voters in their coalition have been organized, volunteering, giving

money, getting psyched, going to the polls, telling their neighbors, dragging their friends. That will help them next year. The fact that they've done so well in special elections in 23 means they're recently engaged. But my concern about next year's election and this apathy in the Democratic coalition is I don't think that Democrats, this will breed complacency as the midterms did. They did not after the midterms have come to Jesus moment on immigration or crime. Of course, inflation is not entirely Joe Biden's fault and it's global. And why would the Democrats sit down and blame him for inflation? But immigration and crime is a huge

liability for them as a party. No come to Jesus after the midterms because they did surprisingly well. After Tuesday night, are they going to sit down and address their problems that are measured in the New York Times, CNN and CBS news polls. I don't see a lot of it. Biden is old, and I've made the argument multiple times, and the Bulwark audience is familiar with this, that he has been disqualified by a large sector of the electorate, including his own voters, because of his age. And so no amount of commercials about the new battery plant is going to change that. If you throw in the gasoline in the frying pan of the Hamas-Israel war and the fact that young people do not see Trump as a threat to democracy, non-college whites and non-college black voters

and young people are moving to Trump because of their personal finances and they don't want to be in wars. And the fact that we have this kind of realignment that Democrats are denying where young people, and I have three college students, your grandson was raised in France, so he's probably not as poisoned because it's a different culture but our 20-somethings these days as we have seen in the hamas israel the explosion of anti-semitism is coming from it they're disinformed because they're being radicalized on social media and i think that Democrats are in denial about the fact that many of these young people really can't be sold on Biden's accomplishments

ever. And that his age has put an end to the possibility that they will support him next year. And that Trump is compelling because they can't be sold on how dangerous, you know, the end of the constitutional order is, their eyes blaze over. So this is my long way of telling you, I have lost sleep this week, and I'm very panicked. And I think the Democrats remain complacent and in denial. One of the other things that Plouffe said, though, was on the economy, which I was also kind of my eyes widened to hear this from him. He says, look, we can't be in a position of telling people what they should think about the economy. We cannot tell them that

their lived experience is wrong. We have to tell them that we understand where they are and that we are doing something about it. So when we hear this talk about, well, we just need more messaging. We need to have Biden explain that you're stupid if you think that inflation is a problem, or we need to have Biden explain the crime is going down, that there's really not a problem at the border. No, that is not going to change people's minds. You cannot tell people that what they are seeing at the grocery store is not what they are seeing. But let me just go back to abortion, because I do think that abortion is going to be a salient issue. I do think that it's going to continue to motivate to the extent that the Democratic coalition appears to be ap salient issue. I do think that it's going to continue to motivate to the extent that the Democratic coalition appears to be apathetic. You know, this is going to be continue to be a

fireball. And I think it's completely wrong to assume that Donald Trump somehow is going to escape all of this. Trump, unlike other Republicans, understands that this is dangerous. I mean, after the midterms, remember, he said he kind of blamed some of the losses on the pro-lifers, the too extreme legislation. He's ripped DeSantis for having a six-week ban. And he's kind of positioning himself as I am more moderate. I am the person that can cut the deal, make the compromise. But you know what? Donald Trump also owns the fact that he is responsible directly and indirectly for everything that's happening on the abortion issue. And I think it's going to be very difficult for him to escape because whether he supports a national ban or not, every single horrific bill that is being

passed in any state is as a result of the overturning of Roe versus Wade, which he promised and he effectuated and which he has bragged about. So I never overestimate the ability of Democrats to weaponize an issue, but they would be very, very foolish if they let Donald Trump move an inch on this particular issue. So I still think that's there. I agree with you about the sort of the complacency. And also, you just look at the reaction to people like my good friend, Rui Teixeira, when he's trying to explain to Democrats that these are the voters who ought to be your people. Why are you losing them? What is pushing them away, focusing on that problem? And there's just this incredible, like, we don't need to listen to you. You're wrong. You know, the blah, blah, blah, blah. It's like, there has to come a moment where they sit down and go, all right, we do need to ask, why are we not beating this guy by 50 points? The

question that Hillary Clinton asked in 2016. You know, this is after all the party that put up the one candidate that maybe could not beat Donald Trump back in 2016. So I would hope, and this would include listeners to this podcast and readers of the Bulwer, at some point, you have to ask yourself why there are areas of the country that used to vote routinely for Democrats that are now bright red. What happened? You can't blame it all on disinformation. There's something else going on and telling people that they're idiots is perhaps not the winning strategy. I totally agree. And it is very true that denying inflation is very dangerous. I mean,

things cost more. We're in a rapid cycle of change. There's a new war in the Middle East. People are really anxious and they are struggling but i want to ask you a question on abortion don't you think that donald trump will just i know you're very experienced in the politics of this on the right don't you think and you and i talked about this before that donald trump will just he will dictate the policy and he will just come out in general and say i'm not for a a federal ban. We're never going to have that. It's very possible. And I think that he understands the danger of this, you know, to the extent that he understands things. I think his reptilian instinct is right here.

And I think that that's very likely to happen. Will the pro-life movement go along with it? Yes, they will. But this is where I think the battle lines are going to be drawn. You know, are the Democrats going to allow him to step away from what he has unleashed with the overturning of Roe versus Wade? And I think that that's going to be a more difficult sell. I think that this is what I keep coming back to in Virginia, because I would have been among those arguing that the sweet spot compromise is 15 weeks. I mean, the poll numbers are completely different.

If the pro-life movement had been thinking for the last 50 years, how would you react to this moment? There is an alternative reality where you come up with incremental reforms, changes. You also show that you're pro-life for people after birth, and you could actually establish a broad coalition. None of that's happened. And I'm not sure that Donald Trump is the person to put that together, but it is true that the pro-life movement is going to push, but ultimately they will see this as a binary choice and they will go along with whatever he says. But again, there's no way you separate Donald Trump from the overturning of Roe versus Wade. You just cannot do it. Yeah, I agree. Okay. All right, AB, happy Thursday. Thank you

for joining me once again. Oh, by the way, I'm just looking at the next debate. Hold on. Can I just pull this up here? Very interesting. Because this just came out a few minutes ago. Yes. The next debate is going to be a real shit show. News Nation, the Washington Free Beacon, Megyn Kelly. If you thought that last night was softballs, hang on. I don't know.

Maybe you're going to have to watch for me and just send me some notes or something. I don't know how we're going to get through it. I am really coming up to the life is too freaking short for this sort of thing. Hey, listen, you have a great weekend and we will talk again soon. And I want to thank everybody for listening to today's Bulwark podcast. I'm Charlie Sykes. We will be back tomorrow and we'll do this all over again. Bulwark podcast is produced by Katie Cooper and engineered and edited by Jason Brown. If it's a flat or a squeal, a wobble or peel, your tread's worn down or you need a new wheel,

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