The Bulwark Podcast - Adam Kinzinger: Don't Feed the Dictator

Episode Date: August 20, 2025

Russia is losing the war in Ukraine. More than 1 million Russian troops have been killed or injured, and it's been estimated that it would take another four years and 2 million more soldiers for Putin to conquer the Donbas region. So no, Ben Shapiro, getting Ukraine to sacrifice the region in return for some kind of security guarantee would not be a "masterstroke" for Trump. Meanwhile, red state governors sending National Guard troops to D.C. are disrupting the lives and families of those troops at back-to-school time—just to please Daddy Trump. Plus, the MAGA socialism around Intel, Dems should advise foreign countries to think twice about doing corrupt deals with Trump, and Hegseth's pull-ups don't cut it in the alpha male world he thinks he's making. Adam Kinzinger joins Tim Miller. show notes Tim on the Louisiana governor sending the National Guard to D.C. Kinzinger's interview with Jason Riddle Jonathan Martin on Trump giving Putin more time to stall FT on Europeans comparing eastern Ukraine to Florida (paywall) *** THE BULWARK LIVE in Toronto, D.C. and NYC: Thebulwark.com/events ***

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I'm your host, Tim Miller. Delighted to welcome back, one of our Green Jacket guests. He's a former Republican congressman from Illinois, his retired Air National Guard pilot, the founder of Country First. And you can find him on Substack. It's Adam Kinsinger. What's up,

man. Hey, what's going on? Good to be with you, man. It is good to hang with you. I'm sorry to start with some uncomfortable news, though, but I do think we need to talk about it. I saw a breaking report from Sparks N123. It said this. The FBI sent an official referral to the Justice Department seeking a grand jury to indict Adam Kinsinger. He has no explanation for the 108 million he acquired when he joined the January 6th Committee. I'm wondering if you have an official statement on this if you heard anything from the grand jury listen man i saw that yesterday and here's the best part about it is like underneath that comment there are people that are like it's about time you know good i've always wondered and i'm like dude do you guys really believe this so no i haven't received

anything to the grand jury and you know what tim if i had a hundred eight million dollars i would be in an island right now i believe in american politics but 108 million dollars would allow me to walk away from it and uh i might do that i was going to say the thing that pissed me up and at first i was sad for you and for your family and for a young child uh that you might be going to jail but after that i was pissed i was like why didn't he fly me private to chicago for a live live show i was like wait i haven't been invited on any jets you know i want some of this and here's the best thing i think about like okay let's say if people believe it what who what and why would i get a hundred and eight million dollars for serving on january 6th

Too many. But I love how when somebody made it up, they did 108 because it's not like a hundred or 50. It's more believable if it's exact. So, ladies and gentlemen, let me just publicly say here, I've not received anything from the FBI. I'm not worth $108 million. Although I wish I was. A lot of chatter out there, though, about how they're coming for you. Are you worried at all? Does Deputy Dan have you shake you in your boots? Yeah. I mean, look, it's been, I think close to what eight years? Well, since the advent of Q that I've been, you know, people have been threatening to send me to get moan so i have all my plans together i mean you know i've got a preferred bunkmate if we need you know and uh but now i haven't heard anything you no longer have a security clearance so

they've taken that away several times that i didn't have anyway that's the best is like i retired i got out of the out of congress and like they don't re i think they realize it like you don't take your security clearance with you it's not like you just have it right you lose it with the job. And so I've had it suspended twice, the non-existent one. Congrats. Yeah, I saw James Clapper got it suspended again yesterday. It's like a free press race for them. I like the serious, and we'll get to actual news, like the serious subjects of this were joking, but like, something that pisses me off is that you occasionally hear people, you know, alibi for people for Republicans in Congress, for business leaders and stuff that they like don't speak out against Trump because they're worried about

their safety or because these guys might come for them, et cetera. I don't know. How do you think about all that? Because you're out there, as I mentioned, you've got a family. I hate when I hear that. It makes me angry because, well, first of all, let's just take away from us, right? Members of Congress and the Senate usually travel to places like Iraq. We traveled to Afghanistan. You know, all these kind of like, I guess I would call them struggling democracies. And we meet members of parliament all the time that literally will be assassinated. or attempted assassinations have already occurred. And they are there fighting for their country, you know, the Iraqi parliamentarian or whatever.

And so when I hear this at home, it angers me because, look, you can make more money and have a better life if you leave the House and the Senate. If your concern truly is like, gosh, I don't want death threats. And so I'm going to vote this way to make Trump happy. Not only are you part of the problem, you are absolutely weak and go find a different job because I promise. you that there is somebody that probably believes what you believe, but is willing to stand up to people. Look, here's the thing. If somebody's leveling death threats against you, 99.9% of the time they're bluffing because they're not going to level a threat, you know, before they do anything. It's just this is what, it's like Hollywood in politics,

draw out the crazies, and you have to make a decision. If you're going to put yourself in that arena, you have to be willing to stand to the pressure. So it infuriates me because there are people that have taken real threats because they've done the right thing. And, you know, you take the, whatever, the guy from North Carolina, the senator who's, oh, wo is me. Yeah, tell us. Like, fine, dude, quit. He's quitting. But he's still not taking a courageous stand. It's unbelievable. The thing I don't get, Tim, is people have to look at them, like, there is going to be a point at the end of your life where hopefully you have a chance to reflect. What do these people think they're going to think of themselves? That's what I wonder.

it's a great question i don't have a great answer to it and i and i think a lot of it is that um the bubbles have gotten so thick that they're like not really even exposed to what a counter view would be because i was always like what about the kids it was you know during that first term it was like january 6th the images you know Lafayette square whatever who knows what horrible images we have ahead of us i was always like you know if you have young kids some of these guys are old so maybe their kids are grown they don't care but like you grandkids young kids, grandkids. It's like, and they're in high school.

Like, I think about, like, things that I learned about in high school, like I didn't live through, like, civil rights or something, where, you know, whatever. Like, back at the time, there were people, obviously, that rationalized all this, but then you eventually get to a point where, like, things get flattened.

And all you learn is, like, you just see the pictures. And it's like, your defense, I think is going to be pretty weak in the face of your 15-year-old grandchild or child when they're like, wait a minute. So you're on the side of the people, like with the Confederate flags attacking the cops? Like that was the side you were on?

And they're like, well, you have to understand it was complicated. You know, the president. There was also some Black Lives Matter protesters who did bad things. It's like, you know, so I don't, that's the part that I don't really get. But I guess it just don't think about it, compartmentalization. I don't think your grandkids are going to care that you were worried about your re-election. I mean, that's the thing is like, I'll tell people because, you know, folks will ask me, what was the difference between you and other members of Congress in January 6th?

And I'm like, well, I don't know what the difference is, but I do know, and I consciously thought about this, which is, Kinsinger's not a very common last name. And so when Christian, my three and a half year old, is learning someday about this, which he will, he's obviously going to read my name in some capacity. I can't blend in and say that wasn't me. And so then I've got to sit down with him at some point as his father and talk to him about doing the right thing, about standing alone, about courage, about morality. And how can I do that when he can just literally open the history book? and say, okay, dad, is this a do as I say, not as I do thing? Because I'm reading what you did right here. And I just don't, I don't understand it.

And lastly, it's like every member of the House and Senate goes when they get elected. And I really believe it's almost every one of them. They, like, fantasize about this time when they are so compelled by something that their Mr. Smith goes to Washington. And they stand alone on the Senate floor and they blah, blah, blah. Very few people get an opportunity to do that. and a fraction of those that do actually do it. You can almost get no senators or congressmen to turn against their tribe.

I think people fear being excommunicated from their tribe more than they fear even death. It's very optimistic that you think Christian will read about what you did, as opposed to having like, you know, a little AI robot clawed, tell him, brief him. It'll be zoomed into his brain. Yeah, exactly. Neurlinked. Y'all, everybody's into Norm Corps these days. I don't know if you know about Norm Core, but it's kind of just staples, basic colors, basic

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I guess your biggest picture, I'm curious, your take on where things stand. in the negotiations via Ukraine, what Trump's new favorite word, his aspirational trilat. He learned the word trilat recently, and so now I keep saying it over and over again. What do you think about the state of play? Well, let's first off say that Donald Trump put down a marker and said, if we don't have a ceasefire to begin negotiations, there's going to be these massive secondary sanctions. That didn't happen. And so automatically at the very beginning, Donald Trump said to Vladimir Putin, here's my red line.

Okay, never mind. I'm going to cross it. Vladimir Putin, we all know this, knows how to play Donald Trump, probably more than Melania knows how to play Donald Trump. I mean, what we saw in Alaska was disgusting. I'm watching some of our conservative friends trying to say that this flyover at the Alaska air base was all about showing strength and, oh my gosh, I can't believe you had the courage to put a B2 flying over Vladimir Putin. No, that was a sign of respect. A flyover is a sign of respect. So he rolled out the red carpet for Vladimir Putin embarrassed himself, emasculated himself on TV. So you're saying it wasn't a flex. It wasn't a flex. There's no way that was a flex. And so, you know, he emasculates himself on TV in front of the world. And then all of a sudden, Europe, the fact that all of Europe basically had to come to the White House the other day is embarrassing enough because it shows that they don't believe

that the president is consistent. And they have to be there to strengthen his spine around. Zelensky. So let's take aside his affection for Russia and just look at him and say he is so malleable that all of Europe had to come to make sure that he wasn't manipulated. Then he walks away in the middle of that meeting to call his friend Vladimir Putin because he wants to be respectful and not call Putin in front of these folks. And in the meantime, we have this back and forth about is there going to be a security guarantee? Let's think about something. Ukraine had a security guarantee. In 1994, the Budapest memorandum, signed by the UK.

the United States, Russia and Ukraine, said you give up your nuclear weapons. We will make sure your territorial integrity stays intact with a security guarantee. Obviously, that wasn't done. So the question is now, is there a point of a security guarantee? Maybe. I have a hard time believing that's going to happen. I have a hard time believing that Putin is going to acquiesce to U.S. or European troops there. Can we just sit on a security guarantee for a second?

And then we'll come back to that because something caught my eye recently. one of my competitors in the podcast space, one of the more quasi-normal people on the right, Lobar, Ben Shapiro, who, you know, Ben Shapiro's been coddling up to Trump and so many ways to do the fundraiser for him, so he's been awful. But like, on Ukraine,

he has opposed Trump from time to time and given a real view. You know, he's wanted the U.S. to support Ukraine. So I was intrigued to see this little thumbnail across my screen. Could Trump's, all caps, masterstroke, and the Russia-Ukraine war, Democrats have been bamboozled by Trump again. I want to just play for you a little bit

about what he thinks the master's stroke was. But the fact that President Trump is willing to hold Russia's feet to the fire by even talking about these kind of significant security guarantees is a major move from the president. And pretending that that's a pro-Russia move is silly if there were a significant security guarantee, a sort of NATO light,

an Article 5 light approach to Ukraine in exchange for territorial concessions in Donbass. That would be a master stroke from the president of the United States because otherwise this thing keeps going. His voice is awful. I don't know how people listen to that. It's like unbearable. But anyway, besides that, how about the substance?

What would be your response to that point of view? Well, I agree with him in the extent that if there was an Article 5 type security guarantee, that would be obviously a master stroke. That's a stupid word, but whatever, let's call it that. where I break with him is Donald Trump is not basically saying we're going to do a security guarantee. This is a, what is

it that a Weiss calls him, Dim Filby? This is his comment and some people around him. Now, and maybe Donald Trump is willing to do a security guarantee. That's good. Okay, I'm not trying to discourage from that. But this idea that then you have to vacate the Dunbos in order to get the security guarantee,

if Ukraine makes that decision, that's their decision. But it came, the Institute for the A study award did a study that said basically, for Russia to take the rest of the Dunbos, at the current rate they've taken everything so far, it would take basically two million more men and four years. And so it's not like it's just this little tiny area that Ukraine would just be like, okay, you can have a couple of feet here of land. It's also an area where there's a pretty extensive defensive belt, which is what they're holding right now, which is very hard for Russia to get through. So look, Ukraine can make that decision if they want to. But for us,

to say it's a master stroke for Ukraine to give away their land for a security guarantee. It's not a master stroke. That's at best a truce. At worst, it's a defeat by Ukraine. And Ukraine is winning this war. This is the thing, Tim. I want you to imagine when we invaded Iraq in 2003. So put your opinion of the invasion aside and just say, okay, imagine now it's 2006 and a half. And we occupy 20% of Iraq. We've lost a million men. We did occupy 30, 35% of Iraq two weeks into the war, but then they kicked us out. So now it's 20. And we've lost a million men. Is there a soul in the world that would say the United States is winning this war or is inevitably going to win this war? No. That is exactly the position Russia is in. They've lost, you know, what, the second biggest military in the world owns 20% of Ukraine after having 30% of it, losing a million men?

The idea that they're like on the edge of winning, I've heard this for three and a half years. You have two. Every month, they're always on the edge of a breakthrough. Ukraine can defend itself. And the ultimate way to get to an end of this war is not to feed the dictator. Feeding the dictator never works. It's to say we are standing with Ukraine. They will defeat Russia.

And then that compels Russia to the table. This has to be a negotiation, sure. But it has to be a negotiation with Russia understanding that they're not going to achieve their goals. I got a kick of that when you're like this small little sliver that they, pretending like that's a small little sliver they're taking the Dunbos. There was a report from the F.T. Those guys have done the best coverage, I think, of the Ukraine conflict, just from a straight news standpoint.

They have this little anecdote that apparently at the White House meeting on Monday, Zelensky compared giving away Donetsk to giving away Eastern Florida, like showed a map to Trump. And apparently this resonated with him. It's like, no way to be, you would mean we would lose Fort Lauderdale? I don't know that we could do that. That is like the level of what that we're dealing with here, I guess. You know, the problem is, as Americans, we have this kind of, and I'm guilty of it too,

this predisposed bias to think of every other country as small. And therefore, if you look at a map and you see a little bit of red taken away or added, it's like, eh, whatever, no big deal. It's a small country. Well, Ukraine's the size of Texas geographically. It's the largest, you know, country in Europe. This is not a joke. And again, the area that Russia is talking about taking.

And let's keep in mind, their initial goal was to take over all of Ukraine in three days. But the area the area they're talking about taking is a significantly important area because it's where Ukraine can defend itself best. I don't know if it was Weiss on your show or whatever that compared it to the Sudaten land. But it's basically like you would give away the forts and the defensive line. And then the question is, what if a security guarantee now? Isn't it an Article 5 NATO thing? Do we honestly believe right now if Latvia or Estonia was attacked that Donald Trump would follow

through on Article 5 in NATO? I don't know. I don't. And the other thing is, also the Putin, this is the thing I don't understand about this conversation that I just,

I feel like people are just throwing around terms like security guarantee and there's no like detail. Like, what exactly do you mean? Because why would Putin? Right. If Putin's whole thing is that the root cause of this war was that Ukraine

was going to join NATO, which is stupid bullshit or whatever. But if that's like his position, okay? Well, then why would he be okay with an essential, what did Ben Shapiro call? it article 5 light like article 5 in name without the name you know basically why would he be okay with that and then there was some discussion i saw in one of these you know conservative hawk sites are

still pretending don't terms of hawk about how like we would do air protection of ukraine i'm like really you think that bannon and the maga base are going to be for us flying jets over ukraine and getting shot at i don't think so they're already freaking out they're already freaking out about it and i mean look, you know, I've done some news hits on it, and the question is always, you know, boots on the ground, boots on the ground, which is a stupid term, but regardless, would America put boots on the ground? Like, it's this huge red line. Look, America has boots on the ground in Baltics right now. I don't know if they actually have a rotation in there, but occasionally we put a rotation in the Baltics. And it's 100, 200 troops that could not hold the Russians back, but they exist for one reason because they're a trip wire. The Russians will not attack with U.S. troops there because they don't want to trip the whole military. And so, So that's what we're talking about, a security guarantee, but also a security guarantee could be as simple as, hey, we'll give you aid. That's what they're arguing. When people argue that we actually held the Budapest memorandum, they're saying that, well, by the fact that we aided Ukraine is that security guarantee. So Ukraine, who has a huge mistrust for things like security guarantees, is going to need to see something on paper.

Do you think Vladimir Putin will get there? I don't think so unless Vladimir Putin knows he is going to lose. and this is the only way to prevent like a counteroffensive that's going to kick him out of territories that he occupies now. One of the most important reasons for the security guarantee, even beyond just we don't want the war to start again, is we have to rebuild Ukraine. The world has to rebuild Ukraine. If you're a company and you want to invest in Ukraine, which by the way is an amazing country

to invest in post-war, is your board going to allow you if there's no guarantee that the war is not going to resume? No. And so what do you have now? poverty. You have more mass migration. You have to have those guarantees so that you can rebuild the country. My buddy Jemart has an article in Politico this morning basically saying that, you know, the Putin posture on this is going to continue to be stall, stall, stall as it has been. And that's worked to date with Trump. And so, you know, Trump needs a new ultimatum to potentially get him

to move, which he might not anyway, but let's just, let's just play that out. And that he has this bill that Graham and Blumenthal bill with 84 senators co-signing it, which is this kind of maximum pressure sanctions campaign against Putin, that's sort of been the sort of Damocles, but the sword is like very high in the sky and nobody's really afraid that it's going to fall anytime soon. Jamart's basically like, let's bring that sword down right over Putin's head. I don't know if that'll work, and I don't even know if John Thun and Graham would go through with it. But what do you think of that?

From what I understand about the legislation, there are some loopholes, which allows the president, you know, huge waiver power. And so that's a little worrisome. But I mean, look, it's, is it going to be the thing that compels Russia immediately? Not necessarily. But what it will do is basically take away a significant amount of Russia's financing for the war, which continues. I mean, the thing is, is their economy is is teetering right now. It doesn't mean that in a week it's going to be the, you know, the Soviet Union and collapse in 91. But like, they have huge inflation. They've actually had to pull back on bonuses they're giving to soldiers. My good friend, Sean Pinner, he was a British soldier that was captured by the Russians, but he did

a big documentary about how they're recruiting people out of Africa with promises of visas and then tricking them and putting them into the war. And so these people are coming up not knowing. So Russia is very much struggling. There's a reason they're not doing mechanized assaults anymore because they're out of tanks. And so this would be important to basically compel those that are still financing Russia to stop doing that. Is it going to change Russia overnight? Probably not, but, you know, who knows? Because Putin is smart enough to recognize his tenuous position. Oh, Canada. Hey, y'all. We're going on tour this fall. We're going up north. I demanded it. I wanted to support our Canadian listeners and friends being attacked by this administration. So we're

going to do the whole deal. Mounties, Tim Hortons, maple syrup. I'm going to be drinking Seagrams on stage. I was Seagram's Canadian anymore? I said, that in the last episode and I think they might have been bought by a multinational corporation. Anyway, I'm going to have a Canadian cocktail on stage. You guys can tell me what I should do. And we get to all be an ally ship against our terrible mega president. So come check out me, Sarah Longwell, Canada's favorite, Sam Stein. We're going to be in Toronto in September. I want to see you there, especially if you're Canadian, but if you're American, you want to go support our friends up north and come hang. We'd like to see you too. If you aren't up

for stamping your passport you can catch me sarah and jviel in dc or new york city in october as well anyone can grab tickets or more information now at the bulwark dot com slash events they didn't tell me to tell you this in the ad read but since you're a friend since i'm looking up for you i'm letting you know that i was looking at the presales that toronto ticket's going to be a hot ticket baby so if you want to go to toronto i'd jump on that now you should jump on all of them now but Toronto in particular. Take a look at your schedule, see if you can make it. I hope to see you in Toronto.

Once again, it's the bulwark.com slash events. I want to talk about the National Guard some. I went off on YouTube yesterday, folks who missed it on this, are my National Guard yours too, I guess, Texas, Louisiana is sending people to D.C. National Guard troops. I think Louisiana we're sending 135 troops. This is to me just preposterous in every way. We're in hurricane season. National Guard is big support on that.

And also, what are they going to do? Like, sit outside without any arms, outside Union Station, like in their fatigues, looking like that really good use of our resources. So I want to get your take on kind of how the National Guard has been used. You wrote about this a little bit in your substack, how Trump is undermining the National Guard at America. I also want to start, like, for people who are listeners who don't know anybody who is in the National Guard, just like talk about what that is, what that job is.

because I know that you were in the National Guard for a while. Yeah, so basically the National Guard, and I'll try to keep it at 50,000 foot, they are a reserve component, so the reserves federally of a different military branch. So I was in the Air National Guard, so we were in Air Force Reserve. So I had a federal commission as a federal officer. And so I'll get to the second part in a second. Army National Guard is a reserve component of the Army. There's also Army Reserves and Air Force Reserves.

But those National Guard components also have a commander-in-chief who is the governor. And when they're not under federal orders, they're under the commander of the governor. What that does is it allows constitutionally that reserve force to be used by the governor for sandbagging. You know, we know what the guard is used for, riot control, stuff like that. When the president activates the guard, they are federal troops at that moment, no different than like the 82nd Airborne. If a governor activates them, then they can do all that stuff according to the Constitution. So when the president activated the guard in L.A. and Governor Newsom did not consent, they were federal troops. They were not National Guard troops, okay? Clear as mud. But the reality is most people join the

guard for a few reasons. Number one, helps pay for college. Number two, they want to serve their community or it's extra income, you know, or the patriotism. So you do one week in a month, two weeks a year, sure. Now, as an Air Guard pilot, we did a lot more than that. But as your typical guardsman, that's what you do, one week and a month, two weeks a year. You go through basic training and everything like a regular Army soldier. And what are you doing those two weeks a year? Most of the time you're doing training?

Yeah, it's usually in the summer. Yeah, you're usually going to like a camp somewhere and you do like, you know, your maneuvers or your job or whatever it is, basically to stay kind of current. And so you may get activated. And when you're activated, keep in mind every one of these. guard soldiers, most of them, have a civilian job. You know, maybe a doctor, maybe a nurse, maybe a police officer. When you're activated, you have to leave that civilian job to go to the guard. And so it's very disturbing to families, right, especially single parents who all of a sudden have to find child care. It's disturbing to employers. And ultimately, to people that join the guard

that may be on the edge of reenlisting are going to be like, I can't keep doing this. This is nuts. And so it's terrible for recruiting. So you've taken. a military force that usually has 90% approval by the American public, and you've made it partisan. And these guardsmen and women don't want to be made partisan. And so it's very frightening because, again, the last kind of institution we have in this country that is bipartisan is the military. And Trump is doing everything he can to destroy that. Yeah. And that is the crazy part about just, again, it's only 130 people only, but they're humans, they're Louisiana citizens. There's same number of people in all these other states. And it's like, you're taking them away from

businesses hurting the economy in the community. You're taking them away from their families, as you mentioned. Like, we're back to school time. It's like, for what? And now you're sending them to D.C. to make Daddy Trump happy. And then they get there. This is not what they're trained to do. So what are these guys doing? Like, you see the pictures of them just like sitting outside Union Station and their fatigues, like drinking Gatorade. And it's like, well, what is this for? Yeah, and by the way, the only military units that are qualified for this are military police units, which, by the way, most of the people activated are not military police. But the interesting thing, too, is like the D.C. Guard, when that was activated, there are a significant number of people that were activated with the D.C. guard that were D.C. cops that have to leave their D.C. cop job and leave that open to come and sit in the National Guard. By the way, this makes sense for people in national security roles. I haven't confirmed it, so I just old anonymize it. But I have some tips.

for people who are in federal government national security roles, who are taken out of those, like, serious jobs, and now instead they're patrolling the mall to make sure that, you know, there's no littering outside the Washington Monument. Yeah, and the worst part about the fact that it's red states that are sending the guard is, again, that's, you know, without getting too dramatic, if you ever see a time where there would be like, I'm not going to call it Civil War, but real significant differences in the state,

you can start seeing a red national guard and a blue national guard, a red army, a blue army. And even back, and I'll blame the Democrats on this one, back in Trump's first term, he actually had a guard deployment to the border. I was part of that, by the way. And blue states were refusing to participate. And that was stupid of them because the guard on the border is actually a pretty important force. And so it was red states. Now you have the opposite of that where red states are eager to put the guard out.

And it's creating a real mess. I just think we're becoming numb to this. You've talked about this a lot. We're becoming numb to this, and that's what frightens me more than anything. Do you have any election concerns about this? I mean, just as far as, I don't know, deploying the guard to various places ahead of elections next year. And, like, there's something I could imagine where, I don't know, maybe there's some protests in Democratic precincts in Texas, whatever. And Abbott's like, okay, we've got to station some dudes in fatigues, outside polling places, some intimidating.

people. Maybe there are even more nefarious things that can be done. I don't know. Where are you out on that? It's not something that keeps me up at night, but it's not a zero percent chance. Yeah. I think we have to be aware of it. I would caution people, don't be hysterical about this. No, I'm not there too. That's why I keep like trying to like dial in focusing on something that we know they've already tried that I think they might try again, which is a post-election. I'm not not certifying. Yes. You know, I mean, now we're getting into dystopian fantasy, but we're already there. We're already in dystopia. Yeah, so we should at least plan for it, which is Democrats win, you know, narrowly.

Maybe some of the gerrymander in Texas backfires a little bit because the Hispanic districts sort of revert back towards how they were voting in Democratic times. Democrats win the House narrowly and, you know, they say that it was fraud, right? And, you know, then they're protests and then you're deploying the National Guard to tamp down the protests, right? Like, that is not a crazy scenario to me. And that one is more realistic, I think. It's not crazy. And, you know, what else isn't crazy is, you know, red states saying, oh, gosh, this high crime area of Big City A here, we're going to put the National Guard in to secure that for the election. And look, in reality, in a lot of poor communities in the city, they have a lot of mistrust for guys in uniform. And so is having a couple of military guys at the polling station going to encourage them to go vote or will they just take a pass that day? That's the kind of voter suppression thing I think we should worry about a little bit. All right. I want to talk a little bit about Maga-Communism. A little exaggerated. But it is noteworthy. When you start seizing the means of production, the U.S. government has a plan to acquire a 10% equity stake. So not 100%, but a 10% equity stake in Intel. The plan here is then for the White House to put pressure on other tech companies to buy Intel chips or use its foundry, either by twisting their arm. making a compelling national security case

or via an array of carrots and sticks in the government using carrots and sticks against American companies to buy chips in a company that the government has taken a stake in. Scott Besson confirmed that they're in talks to do this on TV yesterday and said the plan is to take

the loans that we're going to be included in the Chips Act and convert them into an equity stake. It seems like socialism to me. Totally. I mean, And here's the scary thing, or the sad thing or the whatever thing, is that they're not even hiding it. It's not like they're trying to convince us it's something else.

They're bragging about it. Donald Trump with this started with the whole Japanese steel, U.S. steel, Nippon, yeah. And he called it the golden share. United States now is a golden share. I didn't like that, but I guess that wasn't necessarily egregious because of some, you know, national security interests. This is worrisome. And this is basically the president feeling powerful. This is the federal government having a significant seat on the board of private companies.

And that is no different than what you see in, at least socialism, right? Real socialist countries, that's what you see. If this was Obama doing it, I mean, if this was Obama doing it, there'd already be riots on the street by the right. But since it's their God doing it, they think it's brilliant. Yeah, I mean, Obama giving startup funds to Cylindra was like the end of the capitalist. system. Yeah. And I was against that, by the way, but like, okay, you know, I mean, that was just the government giving investing. We did investigation on that. That was legitimate government investment. You can talk about whether that was a good policy or bad policy, but that wasn't,

that wasn't the government owning Cylendra. Right. And typically when the government helps, you know, like whether it's with the Chips Act or like nuclear, for instance, we have loan guarantees, which means we will loan you the money. We can guarantee that money because we recognize it's high risk, but we want paid back and we don't have an ownership state. That's how you do stuff like this. If Intel needs the government's money, you could do a loan guarantee, but not this. And I don't know. I haven't heard the Democrats talk about this, but that's a whole other subject, which is what are they talking about? And, you know, will the American people buy it? Will they care anyway? I don't know.

Let's talk about the Democrats. Actually, we just really quick got in the bullet, because that's I'm going to sit on this one more seconds because I haven't talked about it yet on the pod. like the fact that they're all already just signaling that it's going to be government bullying and like that's the other thing that it's whatever word you want to use whether there's authoritarian country socialist country the idea that the government itself would pick a winner pick a company that it would have investment in and then it would go and pressure the other companies in the supposed free market system and say hey you got to use ours you know or else you're going to get hit with this tariff on the backside or else you're going to get this like that is at least a step towards how the Chinese system of communist capitalism works. It's like this fake market system, state-run market system, right? And like they're just like throwing out there, like that is their plan for Intel and the chipmakers. Yeah. And as bad as this is by the government for what they're doing, and you're right, I'm sure there's

differences between the Chinese system, but it's pretty close. But I also blame the corporations, the companies that are going to acquiesce to this, right? at some point you have to resist. I don't know what Intel's like rules are here, but Intel should be like, hell no. We're not going to have any part of the government owning this. All these companies, all these law firms, all these universities, they're acquiescing to authoritarianism. And so that's why we're seven months into the president's administration. And we're hit with, it's called it Oudaloup. It's a quick military thing. It's like a decision circle. And your goal is to get inside of your enemy's decision circle. Trump is inside of our decision circle every day. Every time we're

about to complete that circle, something new comes in and we have to start over. Yeah, I mean, the Chinese, you know, like they took over Alibaba. So like, we're not all the way to China. Donald Trump hasn't, you know, seized Amazon from Jeff Bezos because Washington Post wrote a negative article. Don't give him any ideas. Being active, playing with your kids, exploring the best trails. All these activities can lead to pain. Introducing Kalea, 6X. Extra Strength Pain Relief Cream. It temporarily relieves aches and pains of muscles and joints associated with simple backache, strains, sprains, and arthritis.

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you were in the House, what you think House Democrats should be doing? Is they returning here soon? So look, I, the one thing, and I've served in the minority and the majority, and the minority, they say, you know, the one thing you have is your voice. That's your weapon. It's your ability to get a message out there. Democrats are a little different right now because they have such a close majority. The Republicans have such a close majority that they do have options. Here's the thing is, let's go back to the very beginning of the year. You know, people like you, and I were screaming after Donald Trump was elected until he was sworn in, like, get your horses in a row because he's, your ducks in a row because he is going to assault the government and they didn't. So Doge is implemented. What happens, Congress is sworn in, Trump is sworn in. Congress goes home for two weeks and Doge is on fire. And the Democrats should have come back, but they were on vacation. And truly, trust me, it sucks. If you're on vacation and you get called back, I've been there. They should have come back. They should have come back.

should have demanded entry into every building where Doge was because they have a right to that, their oversight as government. And when they got rejected, they should have walked to the D.C. district court and gotten a court order to have entry in this. They should have done that every day. You know, that's the kind of street fighting you have to do in politics to get a message out. It's all about visual. It's all about it. I don't know what the Democrats' message is about the big beautiful bill besides calling it the big ugly bill. Medicaid cuts are bad. Yeah. In 2010, we were elected. I got elected on the stimulus package and Obamacare. And you remember that one speech where Banner is standing there and he goes, did you read the bill? Hell, no, you didn't. And he throws it down.

Iconic. 15 years later, we're still thinking about it. Where is that moment with the Democrats? This is the worst bill to ever pass the House of Representatives. And I don't see it. Now, look, there are people that are doing God's work and trying their hardest. And the frustrating thing about being in the minority is it's hard to get that message out. But I just don't see it. And there's got to be better coordination to get it done. And lastly, look, here's the other problem is Democrats are dealing with what Republicans dealt with, which is they have their own internal battles. You have your left that is mad in the center, the center who's mad at the left. And it's like in Venezuela, the opposition against Maduro just never got its act together.

If you, you know, we're given a magic wand and we're like, hey, you can control the Democrats' actions and thoughts. Like, is there a particular issue that you think that they should be leaning in on right now? Yeah. I mean, I think the big beautiful bill is one because that's everything. That's massive and it's very unpopular. But here's another example is the corruption. So, you know, we know, and we've all forgotten that, you know, we got a free $400 million jet from Qatar that the U.S. is spending a billion dollars now to retrofit that will go to Trump when he's out.

It will be his jet. That is stunning corruption. Here's what I would do if I was Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer. I would make public statements to the government of Qatar before they gave that plane away, to any government that maybe holds American citizens without trial as an example, any government, you need to understand that we will be in charge in a year and a half and in four years, and we will not forget and hold you accountable for any corruption you cause in this country. And that way you have Qatar sitting there thinking, well, maybe it's not worth a $400 million jet, because if the Democrats are in charge in three and a half years, we're going to pay for that tenfold. El Salvador, same thing. These different countries might think

twice about that corruption. And the other thing that does is the Democratic leaders now are not just defending American kind of, you know, non-corruption, but they're sending a message to the American people of what their agenda will be by actually doing that agenda. I think that's essential. And any time you put Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries together at a press conference, making a comment to a foreign government, that's going to get news and that's going to cut through.

I think the corruption stuff is good to go after. When Hakeem was on Friday, you know, various feedback to people had about his thoughts about the internal democratic stuff, I thought he was good on talking about bringing Christy Nome forth if they get in that she's going to be the first one subpoenaed. I thought that was good. And I think that it's right for them to go after immigration, which is a change from the Democrat since the beginning of the year. And I think it changed from Jeffrey's even from his posture at the beginning of the year. The corruption part, it was like he was saying he agreed with us on it, right?

But I just think we need actions to match it. And if I'm out there, if I'm Raskin or Garcia or these guys, it's like signaling to, you know, we talked about yesterday with Kirk Patrick, like, invest. investors, if you don't even call it that, bribe givers to Trump's fake coins, you know, should know that they're going to have subpoenas, right? I mean, you see this, like this is why there's this asymmetry where you hear people say, oh, there, you know, some corporations, some groups are afraid to do certain things because they think that Trump will come after them. Well, I had Chris Murphy when he was on was saying that some big democratic donors are on the sidelines because they just don't want to be hassled, right? Yeah, I believe that. Well, I believe it too. So the Trump, the people that are putting money into Trump businesses should start to have the same fear. Yes. Right. Yes. Yeah.

This is it. And this is like, look, I hated as a Republican, I hated how we did oversight because we were hysterical. Everything was the biggest issue. Fox News, you know, had their outrage of the day. But let me say this, it worked. It worked. It obviously worked. And so now as Democrats, here's where I think there's an asymmetry to, which is, yeah,

Republicans care about careers and stuff, but they're really kind of in this for whatever their principle is or whatever the thing they want. Democrats, a lot of times, they get very comfortable in their seat, and they want to just kind of maintain their seat. And it's not every Democrat. There's exceptions, et cetera. But I've seen this where you'll have a chairman of a committee that's been there for 40 years simply because he or she has seniority. Republicans didn't use seniority as a determination to make chairman. We made who was better at raising money and who was more articulate, and that's effective. That's what the Democrats, so yes, out there even today saying, okay, Intel, just so you know,

if you give up 10%, I don't know what Intel's role in this is, but as an example, Intel, you give up 10%, we will haul you in front of our committee and have a month long of hearings about why you did that. And then you at least counter the pressure. And it's not just about the politics even. Yeah, you at least have to give us your emails, like communications. Who made, who suggested this? What were they doing? What were they offering?

Was there a quid pro quo? Yeah, those kinds of questions. That's what they've got to be doing now. All right. Former Republican Hot Minute for you and me right now. We have a new baseline dropped today on the debt. It's heading to 120% of GDP and deficits of $2.6 trillion. The one big beautiful bill act adds a whopping $4.6 trillion to the 10-year deficit. The new tariffs, if they remain in fact, in effect subtracts three trillion from the American. people. Debt will grow faster than before through 2030 and then keep growing. And that's a new analysis that's out this morning. I'm curious for you just to riff on that for a minute. And also, assuming we ever get out of this mess, like the tariff thing is now creating a future pickle, right?

Where if you want to get rid of these painful tariffs, then you're going to have to deal with the debt a different way. And that's going to create some pain. Totally. We used to believe as Republicans that economic growth was the biggest driver of revenue. I still actually believe that. If tariffs hurt growth, which they will. They don't help growth. Let's at least say that. Then you're obviously losing revenue on that delta on that growth.

So, okay, let's say we're still gaining revenue from the tariffs. The debt is out of control. I mean, the thing is, like, when I was in, we were 10, 15 trillion, you know, COVID skyrocketed the debt. And COVID should have been the moment when Republicans said, look, our orthodoxy of tax cuts by any means at any cost needs to be thought about. because we just doubled the national debt basically in about five years. And at some point, the debt reaches a point where there is no way to grow out of it. You've got to raise taxes. You've got to do that. And they are unwilling to leave that orthodoxy. The fact that we're spending more now in interest than on national defense is stunning. And I actually, when I saw that a year ago,

it was the first time I realized that we had actually broken that point. That was shocking to me. Because you could imagine if we didn't have a debt as an example, we could spend $1.6 trillion on the military, or we could all have money back, or we could double our investment in health care. This is a mess. Republicans are not the party of fiscal responsibility. And I would certainly encourage Democrats. You don't have to be like we need to cut everybody's benefits, but be the party of fiscal responsibility. And you can do that through increased revenue. But I think this is going to be a big issue, probably by the end of Trump's presidency. I think we're going to cross some kind of a real rubicon here. concur. All right. We've got rapid fire three fun topics. Well, depending on your definition of fun. I want to start with this. Have you seen the Secretary of Defense doing pull-ups? You've been posting some videos of himself doing pull-ups. I'd like for you to give me a little play-by-play analysis of it. Listen, listen, Tim, I don't know. I don't know. He could have been on pull-up number 1,000, okay? But let me just say this. First off, the one thing you learn in the military is if you do underhand pull-ups, That's what the girls are allowed to do. The guys do overhand pull-ups. And in that video, RFK Jr. is doing overhand pull-ups.

Pete is doing underhand pull-ups. And he's like hoinking around his legs to try to hoist himself up because he can't get up on his own power. So look, I mean, you know, great, good job working out. But, you know, in an environment where alpha males rule and your image is everything, that was a pretty big violation of that today. Hmm. You're kind of a gender affirming care a little bit. on which type of pull-up that he was doing. You might want to call it that.

It's a little reinforcement. You really are strong, Pete, even if it is underhand. Yeah. I'm not a big pull-up man, but I'm not bragging about it. You know, it's kind of a put-up or shut-up type thing, you know? If you're going to talk about your masculinity, you should at least be able to do overhand pull-up, I would think. And by the way, I mean, if you have no upper body strength, but you're allowed to jerk your legs around to the level he did, you could do as many pull-ups as you wanted. It's just using momentum.

You can get it, Pete. And it was like seven-inch movement in total. His chin didn't really get all the way up over there. He's really stretching the neck. All right, good try, Pete. Nice try. I've got another one for you. And I just want to say before we start this, I'm 98.7% of the time against outing.

So I just, I'm against outing. Okay. And I don't, you know, sometimes I think that Libs get a little over-excited about their allyship with gays and they start to feel free to do outing when it's not their fight. So I will just say that. It doesn't mean we can't do teasing. And I have a story from the Daily Mail this morning. I do have to read to him.

One DC-based male escort described having a two-year relationship with a sitting Midwestern Republican congressman. Oh, God. Who during that period had multiple serious girlfriends, the 29-year-old sales. sex worker with boy next door looks described dinners at downtown DC eatery Butterworths, which is a very popular MAGA hangout. That is.

And he said that was followed by late nights. The congressman is now engaged to a woman. Wait, wait, do we know? So he's not naming them? But you are a Midwestern congressman. Can we rule you out? Yeah, you can rule me out. Okay. Do you have any other

thoughts? Do you have any other friends in Congress who were kind of yeah it's going to end up being it's going to end up being a surprise i guarantee you but i mean if he's taking this dude to buttersworth like you'd think what's he they obviously have to have a cover story like he works for me or something like that i'm telling you you can kind of tell uh erin shock had cover stories back in the day you know uh about his his staff was was very muscled great teeth you know they all had kind of a similar look about them and uh maybe it was just a coincidence you know So cover story, sometimes there are some weaknesses in your cover story.

Listen, I think if this is true, if this male escort's telling the truth, it's probably not going to be long until this comes out. Because if I actually sat down with a list of Midwest congressmen who just got engaged to women, it's a short list. I'm sure it's down to one or two. It's a short list. I just don't know, but I'm sure. And was there gossip about this back when you were there about kind of the causative thing? I mean, you'd hear that sometimes.

Like, that rumor was at, like, right when I got elected, that was the rumor about me because I was single. And like, so everybody kind of gets it at some point. But like, no, I haven't heard of anybody recently. But I've been out for two and a half years. Out of Congress. Just to be clear. We don't want anybody clip in that. Don't want anybody clip in that.

I've been out of Congress now. We can hear Christian yelling in the background. So we know that you've sired a child successfully. What about shock? Did you were you guys? Because you guys were the same year, right? same state same year yeah no he actually was elected uh two years before me or four years before me it was actually really helpful to me and uh he's he's a good reason i got elected and yeah i mean you know

he's he's out obviously now but that was kind of like it was a big mystery at the time you know he's gone full mega which is pretty depressing he's gone full mega that is very surprising and i was like it was a different moment this wouldn't work now in 2024 i'll review this will be a nice little gossip reveal for uh for our listeners i had one conversation with him besides a hello at the gay bar back in the time and um it was like just asking for advice or whatever and i was like dude uh this is when it was i forget i don't think the scandal had happened yet i think this was like during the period where i i don't get my timeline right but we're like people started to realize he was gay or maybe it come out but like yeah yeah but it was

like people knew and um and it was coming and we did not know about the um the financial scandal about how he like did his office up as like what was that show Downton Abbey you did a Downton Abbey office. It was before that. Anyway, and I'm just like, dude, come out, you're from fucking Illinois. Move back to Illinois, run as a moderate Republican, like a Bruce

Rauner style, Mark Kirk, you know, flashed in the past, style Republican, and like, don't vote against gay shit. And you could probably do it. Like, you could have, and I stand by that. Like, eventually that would have not worked because, like, once Trump comes around 2016,

you have to go full MAGA or nothing, eventually, like 2018, 2020. But didn't take my advice. Now he's in West Hollywood hanging out with Maga Gays, is what it is. Yeah, just be yourself, man. I mean, that's the big thing is like you realize in life is, you know, all of us wear masks to some extent. And it's like, all that does is it's destructive and destroys you. And the more masks you can take off, the better.

It's great advice, Adam. And that takes us into our final topic, which was an uplifting topic. I figured we shovel some laughs. You did a substack with a guy named Jason Riddle. Yeah. Talk to people about that. Listen, this is, I've kind of done this series of people that left Maga. And, you know, Pam Hemphill, who was at January 6th, and now Jason Riddle, he was arrested at January 6th.

The dude was basically deep into alcohol, got fired from jobs. His marriage to his husband was, like, really on the rocks. Husband was about to leave him. And, you know, and he ends up basically in the Capitol raiding a liquor cabinet. I did joke with him. I'm like, it's not hard to find a liquor cabinet. cabinet the Capitol. But he ended up going home, you know, kind of has made a hero, ends up serving time in jail. He was a correction.

He was a hero inside MAGA. Yeah, inside MAGA. And at one point, he was a corrections officer and actually ends up going to the jail. He was a corrections officer in. And to make a long story short, eventually he's kind of looking at a prisoner who is having a detox from alcohol and realizes that's going to be me someday, gets kind of forced sobriety because of, you know, his parole from January 6, and in essence starts to see life very clearly. And it's one of the most raw and real interviews I've ever done with anybody where he talks about what are the things that drew him to Maga. And I'll give you a little spoiler, it's not issues.

And that's the thing, they don't care about issues. It's belonging. It's like community, it's purpose. That's what Maga is, which is why they can be so inconsistent in what they believe. And he talks about that. So I would really encourage people to, it's on. YouTube as well, but my substack, take a look. And I think you'll learn a lot from it, honestly. Was there any last thing? Was there any, you know, insight into, I mean, it was his awakening

just like sobriety and the scales falling from his eyes? Or was there, you know, something that we could learn as far as talking to other people in his boat? Yeah, I mean, look, the one thing he said is, so he had mentioned another guy, Brandon Fellows, and he said he ended up in prison and ended up kind of getting surrounded by this MAGA group. And so he's still unabashedly kind of pro stop the steel. And whereas Jason was kind of in a different path. So I think what we can learn is if somebody shows an openness to leaving or they left, you have to embrace them in community.

And I mean, I don't mean that to sound all soft and sensitive, but you have to embrace them in community because I see too many people on the left. I even see it in the comments I do, which is like, well, he never should have done it in the first place, right? And look, people can come to realize they've done wrong and we have to be willing to forgive him. That is Donald Trump's superpower, by the way, is he'll forgive anybody. He'll forgive anybody once.

And we have to be willing to wrap people in community because I think that's more than anything else what drives people to MAGA is isolation and loneliness. And it gives him a sense of purpose. He talked about one of the things he mentioned, he had 5,000 Facebook followers. And he mentioned to him how that was his identity. Because, you know, at one point it came to realize, like, they don't even know me. I don't know them. But for a long time, that was his identity.

I have 5,000 people that are relying on me to give them the truth. And that's, you know, that's a reality. You know we've gone full live when we're talking about embracing community. That's right. I know. All this other new woo-woo lingo, me and Adam are learning in middle age. Buddy, it's always good to talk to you. Yeah, you too.

Yeah, you're going to check out a substack. And for listeners, we'll be back tomorrow. I had two guests I wanted to get on this week and I wanted to talk to both of them so badly we're just going to do a double header tomorrow so it's going to be a good one stick around we'll see you all then peace the rain couldn't understand it the pain made them understand shit

the sun tried to understand the gun made me understand the man tried whispering the warning the land shaking plus the rhythm is enormous all the forces like a portal to a vortex connected to the stars just projecting where we part at Pull up where you park at. Aim a little dark.

Where you'll bark at. It'd be a shame if you stayed in them apartments. Twir barely came to them apartments. Catch a play in them palais in them apartments. I swear it's like a party every day in them apartments. He was raised in them apartments. Dang. Jump a shot of join a gang in them apartments.

My mama say we got to get away from them apartments. It's graves in them apartments. And they ain't got to end this way because we ain't started shit. I don't give a fuck about no industry beef. Ain't nobody give a fuck when Tay was dead in the street. I don't do the shit you see on the screens. I've been tapped in with true things. I peep your rap cap and on screw things.

I don't give a fuck about them niggas at the top. The biggest nigga on the block still get shot. You thinking pop. I'm thinking, can't talk about that shit from... You got a chill out. You seen Fox. Lisa and Al-Gaib, I see a tiny line of silver.

A way to make a play, although they say. say it's unfamiliar it's off the kilter i say the words without a filter you gotta have nerve it it'll make you strong if it don't kill you i'll put a bullet and bob the fucking builder for they try and kick us out the building what about the children when i check a news channel i get a similar feeling but still we're gonna make it to heaven high water or hell but don't take the highways so 85 behind the damn wheel it's like a driveway given out like a give christ and i do it twice i'll give chris her thunder hit with And still I didn't feel shit Talk about resilience off a stone mount

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Cade in, one way in, one way out Robocops on mountain bikes ain't pulling mace out Just trying to get back home from getting chased out A week ago a boy like me Don't got a face now Departments, the projects, the ghettos all the same shit Crazy how we hop scotch and double Dutch danger If we're ADHD and all the pills that you gave us,

how we supposed to process this anger. The Bullwark podcast is produced by Katie Cooper with audio engineering and editing by Jason Brett.