The Bulwark Podcast - Adam Kinzinger: Knives Out in the Nutcase Caucus

Episode Date: November 15, 2022

Matt Gaetz is suddenly attacking Marjorie Taylor Greene, MTG is suddenly a super fan of Kevin's, and Elise Stefanik is scheming over in the corner. Republicans will have a very dysfunctional majority. Adam Kinzinger joins Charlie Sykes on today's podcast. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

landlord telling you to just put on another sweater when your apartment is below 21 degrees? Are they suggesting you can just put a bucket under a leak in your ceiling? That's not good enough. Your Toronto apartment should be safe and well-maintained. If it isn't and your landlord isn't responding to maintenance requests, RentSafeTO can help. Learn more at toronto.ca slash rentsafeTO. Welcome to the Bulwark podcast on this Trump Restoration Day for all of you who celebrate. As I wrote in my newsletter, I'm guessing that the day is starting at least partly sunny and bright down in Mar-a-Lago with the exception of the whole Kerry Lake thing, which we're going to talk about.

And of course, later today, well, we have a lot of things going on in the news today. Later today, the House Republican caucus gets to vote on Kevin McCarthy, the beginning of Kevin McCarthy's trip to the lowest circle of political hell. And meanwhile, at about nine o'clock Eastern time tonight, Donald Trump will announce that he is not done with us yet. This is what Peter Baker writes in the New York Times. There will be no golden escalator this time, but neither will there be mocking guffaws. Or can you believe this eye rolling as Donald Trump is expected to kick off another presidential campaign tonight? The world has changed rather drastically since his first. Whatever else is thought of his attempted comeback, it will not be dismissed as an implausible joke. But he's doing this at a time.

And now I'm adding not Peter Baker at a time when his political standing is at the lowest point among fellow Republicans since January 6th. Of course, we remember how that turned out. More Republicans are willing to distance themselves to criticize him. He still faces lots of legal problems. Probably the most catch-up-on-the-wall-inducing story of the day besides the defeat of Kerry Lake has to be these new polls that are coming out, the Club for Growth out with a poll showing him being shellacked by Ron DeSantis in places like Iowa and New Hampshire. You can dismiss Club for Growth because they are, you know, pretty hacky. On the other hand, there are other polls, including that YouGov poll

showing that Trump is not the front runner in a poll out of Texas. But of course, there is a sort of feeling that we've been here before. So to break all of this down, welcoming back to the podcast, Congressman Adam Kinzinger. Good morning, Adam. How are you? Hey, it's good to be with you. How are you doing? Well, it is wild stuff. And I want to talk about Kevin's day today. Get some insight into all of that. I have to admit, I want you to explain the whole Matt Gaetz versus Marjorie Taylor Greene thing, because that was not on my scorecard. I didn't really have that. The nut job caucus breaking up on itself. But can we just talk for just take a deep breath here? Harry Lake going down. I mean,

this is Donald Trump wakes up this morning and the queen of Magistan has been defeated. The most talented political figure of of a generation has been defeated. This is the day that Donald Trump is going to announce a week after, you know, that disappointing midterm. And then the morning after his girl, his best girl, Carrie Lake goes down. So just go. Oh, man, he's got to be like, if you think about Donald Trump from the perspective of the only thing he cares about is himself. This is like because I think he was well, I'll tell you, actually, who's probably the happiest right now is Elise Stefanik, because she's now in the running for, you know, Trump's VP. And this usurper, Carrie Lake, was going to come and take over her position.

And so I think she's happy. I think Trump is extremely miserable. And by the way, you know, it's obviously not too early for all the conspiracies to start. And, you know, thankfully it's not, it doesn't seem like it's, it's MAGA wide or, or alt-right wide about somehow that this election was stolen in Arizona. But I think Mike Flynn today was out with, you know, this is of course stolen. In fact, if it wasn't stolen, uh, I'll never talk about this again. And, you know, the MyPillow guy saying that it was the computers. So obviously this is a, this is a huge blow. And I do think that, you know, had she won, she would be a real force in the Republican Party in a bad way, because she does have that ability to kind of, you know, in a polished politician way, you know, bring the

anger of people forward. So it's a bad day for Trump. It's a great day for the United States of America, Jesus and freedom. Well, and naturally, of course, she's taking it well. She tweeted at one of the greatest self-owns of all time last night when they called a race for Katie Hobbs. She tweeted, Arizonans no BS when they see it. Well, yes, apparently they do, Miss Lake. No one should be surprised if, you know, one of the nation's number one election denialist denies this election or decides to make this ground zero. I mean, think about it.

I mean, this is the Trump playbook. You need to change the narrative. And look, she's been gearing up for this for two years. Why would she not march on Phoenix or whatever? Yeah. And I'll tell you, it's interesting because like so she it's this anger stuff it's the thing i've always wondered about carrie lake i don't know the answer to it but is this an act because you know what two two years ago or something she was some

left winger was she radicalized by the internet during covid or is this all an act and i think you know either way we're about to find find out, but it doesn't work. And I think the interesting thing is when Liz, watching this kind of freak out when she said, people know BS when they see it. It's like that's what a tweet that you tweet through emotion and you don't see how people are going to eagerly respond to that. That's that. And then, of course, I think it was October 28th, she put out something. Basically, she sent a letter to Liz Cheney. I know.

You know, thanking her for her in-kind donation. And then yesterday, Liz just goes, you're welcome. And it was, oh, man, it was classic. That's Liz Cheney like revenge served cold. This owned the Internet today, in case anybody has missed this. It was very much served cold. Yeah, this is October 28th. Carrie Lake tweets to Liz Cheney.

Thank you, Liz Cheney, for this contribution. And then last night, moments after they called the race, you're welcome, Carrie Lake. This was just a thing of beauty. Okay, so Adam Kinzinger, as we step back and everybody's got their, their hot takes, I think, you know, I certainly expected that Republicans were going to win the house. I figured they would win it by a pretty substantial margin. It looks like they will win it, but by the narrowest of possible margins, Democrats, you know, are actually positioned not only to hold the Senate, but maybe to increase their majority. They picked up a couple of governorships. So 35,000 foot perspective. What happened last week? Look, it took me by surprise. I heard Bill Kristol saying, oh, you know, it's not gonna be as bad as everybody says. I'm like, Bill, you're so wrong. But he was so right. Good job, Crystal. You know, like I thought it was going to be a red wave. You know, I was buying into what everybody else was.

I think what happened is a couple of things. So, you know, to toot the January 6th committee's horn for a second, even though people didn't vote based on that, you know, it's not like they went there and they said, I'm going to vote based on what the January 6th committee said. I think that that did a ton to just kind of put that underlying fear for democracy, that underlying kind of something's not right feeling, in which on top of that, you can layer things like the abortion decision, things like Paul Pelosi, I think, actually had an impact, that attack on Paul Pelosi. And so I think you take the abortion decision, you take January 6th, Paul Pelosi, these kinds of things, plus, you know, the fact that probably when you start talking about red waves, there are some Republicans that just don't bother to go vote. And I guess in hindsight, obviously, we should have seen that it wasn't going to be as big as we thought. You can always say that in hindsight. But I think this was a huge repudiation, not just to the MAGA wing of the party, but to the Republican Party saying, you know, look, guys, it's the lack of courage is the thing that is as much devastating as anything. Yeah, we can't do anything about Donald Trump

calling himself a Republican. We can't do anything about the fact that there's 30 percent of self-identified Republicans who support Donald Trump. You know, back in Illinois, we always had this guy who was a Nazi that ran for Congress as a Republican. And there was nothing we could do about it. You just have to get the number of signatures and you end up on the ballot. Right. But when the party has totally collapsed and acquiesced, you know, that's that's a huge own on the Republican Party. And if we wake up, we can come back from this. If we don't, if this ends up being a, even a DeSantis, I'm sure we'll

get into this, but even a DeSantis versus Trump battle, it's not taking the right lessons out, which is, hey, look, the instruments of government are not supposed to be used as your personal toy. I want to pick up on a couple of things that you said there, because in retrospect, this election was about Dobbs denialism as an election denialism, extremism and and Donald and Donald Trump. You know, but I do think and I heard you say this the other day that that the January 6th committee and the the revelations revelations I think did lay the groundwork for what happened here, because I think that there was the, the, the underlying anxiety about just how scary this Republican party was, how dangerous it was. You know, people may have been disgusted by the, by inflation. They may have been concerned about crime. They may have been appalled by what's been

happening at the border, but ultimately millions of Americans went into the polling booth and said, yeah, you know, for all of the problems I might have with Joe Biden and the Democrats, the Republicans are just much, much scarier. And I also think that you're right, that the Paul Pelosi attack might have rekindled those concerns, that it basically brought it all back, that we are dealing with a party that, you know, is deeply unserious, not just about policy, but unserious about just fundamental decency. And I think that there was that sense among Republicans in the last few weeks that they didn't need to be responsible. They didn't need to talk about issues. They didn't need to push back against the crazy because they were just going to win so

big the wind was at their back there would be absolutely no consequences and this ought to bring them up awfully short to realize that maybe the rules did not change as much as they thought they had changed i mean again so here's where and i i know you share kind of this this fear which is i have been here before where i have said, this is certainly the moment that everybody's going to wake up. The chief among it was January 7th. If you'd have told me on January 7th that we would be where we are today, I literally wouldn't have believed you because there was no human being, human decency, human anything that could eventually deny one of the most videoed, pictured, discussed, disgusting events in American history, and people can deny it. Now, that's where we are today.

So I will say with that full, you know, all the caveats, that it may just take losing power to actually have an effect. The question, though, because I think the bigger thing with this idea of decency and our people moving on, and I'll let you in a little insight on what I know about politicians, and I think it's what you know about politicians, too, and probably most people listening. I think it's less about thinking, are we going to lose power in the Republican Party? It's less about, are we going to lose power in the Republican Party? It's less about like, are we going to hold the house if Donald Trump is there? And I think it's more about what makes my life more comfortable when I'm out in public. When I go to the Lincoln Day dinner with the

Republican Party, what is going to cause me less consternation? Is it supporting Donald Trump, or is it, you know, DeSantis, or is it somebody else? That's the appeal that DeSantis has to so many Republicans, Republican electeds at least, is they can say, oh, you know, look, I don't like Donald Trump's tone, but I'm still cool. I'm still cool. I'm with DeSantis. I'm still cool. I still want to own the libs. I still want to be an angry yeller. I still, you know, use culture war. It's just time we move on from Trump. That's why DeSantis is so attractive to members of Congress, because they can still have the Trump base that's like, yeah, I get your point a little bit. And it's not uncomfortable,

because one of the most uncomfortable things you can do as an elected Republican is go to a Lincoln Day dinner and have everybody there pissed off at you. And I think look at what is going to make life most comfortable for these members of Congress, and that's probably where they're going to go. So this is very interesting because, of course, the big question is, is this going to be different? Is this going to be different from all of the other times? I mean, a Republican Party that didn't break with him after Helsinki, Charlottesville, et cetera, after the insurrection. Also, you know, when Trump announces today, he's going to be thinking that this is going to be, you know, a return back to, you know, 2015 and 2016, you know, that he can run as the outsider,

he will attack everybody, he will destroy them, he will give them nicknames, and then everybody will cave. But the question is, and you've raised a really interesting point, and I don't know, by the way, I don't know the answer to this question either. It does feel that the blowback to his attacks on DeSantis are very different than the reaction to his attacks on, say, Scott Walker or Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz back in 2015. I mean, they had support, but they didn't have the kind of base cred that Ron DeSantis has right now. My good friend Stephen Hayes was on Meet the Press and he said, you know, this is different. I'm getting, you know, reports from Republicans all over the country that the grassroots is mad. They are upset at what Trump is doing. So you are seeing this movement in the polls.

Do you think this is going to be different? Well, look, I again, I do think this is going to be different? Well, look, I, again, I do think this is going to be somewhat different. And I think, you know, it's not necessarily the end of Donald Trump, but I do think this is giving some people kind of courage maybe to say what would never have been spoken prior. And I think part of pairing it with this, not just losing the election, is the fact that Donald Trump has gotten increasingly unhinged. I mean, truly, you know, the young Ken sounds Chinese, doesn't it? I mean, it's like, literally, that's a first grade joke. You know, back when you're in first grade, it's like, you know, the stupidest thing, that's what he is now. And so I think you combine the loss of power,

you combine that kind of stuff, like the stupidity, the unhingedness, and I think it's giving more people permission. I think the real question is, though, let's look at the dynamic in the speakers race, the potential speakers race. I'm sure Mitch McConnell wins again, but does he have to go through a tough battle on that? I think let's take the loudest people on the internet. Because again, I think the id of the Republican party, to use your term, a lot of the time stems from who's the loudest people on Twitter in the internet. It's stupid, but that's what drives things now. Is the alt-right going to double down with Donald Trump and attack every tweet that some Republican member of Congress does because they're not sufficiently loyal to Trump?

Well, that has an impact. Well, it does have an impact as well as this fear, which I write about in the column later today, that Donald Trump has always had that implicit threat that if you don't go with me, I will burn it all down. I will take my ball and go home. He terrified Reince Priebus, you know, back in 2015, 2016, by the possibility to run as a third party. He's got that 30 percent. So Republicans right now are thinking, you know, Donald Trump is toxic. We can't win with his kind of crazy on the ballot. Election denial is not a winning issue anywhere. And that's basically all he's got. On the other hand, if he decides to torch everything in sight, we can't win with him either, right? Yeah. But look, it's interesting because

I can think back to a hundred different times when we had the chance to put him politically in the grave. And obviously January 6th, there were so many times Mitch McConnell could have buried him because if Mitch McConnell would have voted to remove him, I think he'd have gotten enough votes. Right. But he didn't. And so the one thing I am very confident and promising right now the House, at least, and around the country will not say a dang word about Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis until they know where the party's going. They will not lead. They will sit back and listen. They will pretend like, you know, oh, I don't want to get involved in a primary. That's like the most anti-Trump thing they'll ever say. Or, you know, hey, we're going to let the people decide.

One of the things I want to do in my afterlife here from Congress is just like put down a list of all the things politicians say and what they really mean. Like, because I've done it, right? So when you say, hey, we need to take a deep look at that, or we need to have a conversation, that is basically you punting the ball because you don't have an answer. You don't want to say the answer. So, you know, what is that with Trump? It's like, well, you know, the people need to decide or something like that. That's what I am 100 percent confident in. Nobody will take a stand. So I want to come back to Kevin's day and what what he faces right right now and also, you know, Matt Gaetz.

But but let's stick with the January 6th committee, because yesterday was the deadline for Donald Trump to show up and to testify under subpoena or to turn over records. He didn't do it. He is pushing back against your subpoena, saying he should have absolute immunity. So what is the status of that? The clock is running on you guys. So what is the next step for the January 6th committee? Yeah. So on the Trump thing specifically, it's basically within the next few days or a week we have to decide. Let's be realistic here. We basically have the lame duck session left. This committee ends at the end of this Congress, not just because likely the Republicans will take over, but because that's the mandate. It ends. So can we get in a long, protracted legal fight with the former president? Probably not. Let's be clear. He had said over and over again that he,

you know, wanted to come in and testify. He was willing to come in and testify. He also said that, you know, look, I think, what was it he said in his suit against us, something about, you know, other presidents have come in and testified, but none have been compelled. Well, what he's admitting is that, yes, other presidents can and should come in and testify and that he had to be compelled to do it and he's not doing it. So in terms of with him, I don't know what the real alternative and options on our end are. I think we understood that going in because, you know, unfortunately we're limited on time. So on the broader thing, what's next for the committee? We are both finishing up some leads and interviews and still investigating while also putting the report together. The report will be

the thing that lives in history and the thing that probably not everybody's going to read it, but I think it will have an impact in terms of the history, the future, all that kind of stuff. We'll probably maybe have one more hearing to talk about that, maybe some other issues on that. But basically, from the legal perspective, it's now the torches with the Department of Justice. The question is, what is the Department of Justice going to do? They have more time, more tools than we had to enforce subpoenas, to have people come in and talk. I mean, a lot of unknown stuff here. And so that's with DOJ. Our job, which is here's the story, here's recommendations, that's going to wrap up. And I can look back on this time on my committee and say, I 100% believe of all the very important things I've done in Congress, and my passion was foreign policy and military, this will be the most important thing I've ever been involved with.

So what is the timing? When are we going to see the document? I would say kind of mid to late December. We don't know for sure yet. Christmas. We obviously want to put it out as late as possible because we need to get as much information in there as possible. But yeah, we can't go past January 2nd. Now, there have been a lot of reports about what's going to be in the report, what's not going to be in the report. Well, tell me, I mean, it sounds like you have to make a decision.

The committee had to make a decision whether to narrow the focus and to make it very clearly focusing on Donald Trump's role as opposed to going into depth about the FBI's failures or the failures of Capitol Police. Can you give me some insight into the thinking about the FBI's failures or the failures of Capitol Police. Can you give me some insight into the thinking about the focus of this report? Yeah, the best insight I can give is if you look at the resolution, the charging document that created this committee, it tasked us with a number of things, some things that we have to figure out, including the security posture of the Capitol, et cetera. we will follow through on that.

We will do what we were charged in that resolution to do. So while a lot of this is still up, like basically all these products basically exist and now we've got to figure out what's going to go in, what's not, how's it going to go? And is something going to just come out as an appendix? Is it going to come out in a different way? But I think people will get a complete picture of what happened that day because it's important for us. Yes, I mean, the chief guy that's responsible is Donald Trump. But there also are some things to learn in terms of what was done wrong on the security posture. What do we know about domestic violence extremism? Things like the financing of some of this. There's a lot of stuff, Charlie, that unfortunately is legal

that really shouldn't be. And so maybe that should be referred to a committee and that'll be part of our recommendations to some of those things. What about Vice President Mike Pence, who is now out with a book today and gave interviews over the weekend in which he was prepared to say that he thought that the president had endangered himself, endangered him and his family, and his rhetoric was reckless. Too late to get him to testify or to cooperate with the committee, even though he's out peddling a book? Yeah, probably. I mean, his people were very cooperative and very helpful, so that's good. But look, I have such mixed feelings about Mike Pence. Yeah. Yes, that day he did the right thing. Basically, he did what was legal. The thing I am struggling with on him, I think at his heart, he's a good man,

but he didn't say a damn word for two years after January 6th. He may gave one speech where he's like, I didn't have a right to overthrow the election. Well, that was huge news. Okay. But we were doing a lot of stuff that he knew answers to. He could have voluntarily come in and talk to us. He knew what was going, he knew, he said that the president put him in danger. What is more important to you, making sure you save some of those surprises for your book or the future of your country. And look, I would love if Mike Pence ran for president against Donald Trump. It'd be fun to watch. But I do want answers from him as to why what he feels is so important to the future is so serious. Why do you wait two years to talk about it? I get it. You were a faithful vice president to a point. I'm not going

to blame him for things he disagreed with with Trump that he didn't necessarily speak out about while he was vice president, but afterwards something so fundamental like the survival of democracy and you don't say anything. And I think honestly, Charlie, Mike Pence, if after January 6th, he'd have fully divorced Donald Trump, he would have gone out and spoken about it, he would be the Ron DeSantis right now. He would be the guy that over the last two years was able to make a compelling case to the Republican base who trusts him even if at the moment they don't like him. And I think he could be the alternative to Donald Trump. Now I have no idea where he stands. He's almost like Chris Christie where it's like,, is he pro-Trump or is he against it? Just depends like what day you ask him. So Donald Trump is going to announce he's running for president today, which is the, maybe the earliest that anybody's ever announced for president. And there's a lot of reasons why he's doing it. He needs to change the narrative, right? That, you know, right now he's the biggest loser in the world. He needs to reestablish the fact that no, he's a winner. Lean into it. He needs to reassert his control over the Republican Party.

He obviously needs to keep the grift going. He needs to keep the attention going. But also, there are a lot of people who are thinking, look, the main reason is he thinks that by announcing now that he can put the Department of Justice in a box. We have a piece of the bulwark today by Dennis Aftergut, who says he's scared witless at the possibility of prosecution. It seems likely that indictments are on their way

from Fulton County, Georgia, and from Attorney General Merrick Garland. By formally becoming a presidential candidate, Trump thinks he'll get an edge on prosecutors. He craves his narrative. Dems are trying to take down an announced Republican candidate for president. Unprecedented. Translation should be unnecessary. I'm a martyr. Defend me. Go after them. So your

thoughts. Does this make it harder for the Department of Justice? I'm assuming the Fulton County prosecutor won't care, but for the Department of Justice to move ahead with indictments? I mean, it's a great question. I don't think it makes it harder for the DOJ to move forward, but I do. As much as I hate to say it, it does give Donald Trump the ability to say, they're coming after me because they're scared. And we know that 70% of the country is going to laugh that off and know that's untrue. The problem is 30% of the country is going to believe it. These are the same people that again, are now starting to believe the people that let's keep in mind the 30% I'm talking about, you know, a lot of them are bad

actors, but a number of them are just people that have been abused. They've been lied to. They've had their social security check taken away $10 in one email at a time to a man that is extremely rich because he's at threat. These are the abused people that he can go to and say, look, the government's coming after me because they're afraid. The people that believe that he was going to come back with JFK Jr. or whatever, that he was going to be the one to put people, rhinos like you and me in jail, that it's just his plan hasn't been finished yet. It's all part of an end times apocalypse thing, which is a whole nother conversation. But I think he will have great effect with that 30% if he announces and if he's indicted. I don't think it's going to deter the Department of Justice. And I also want to be clear. I think in three, five, even a year, whatever it is, there will be that day. It's like

waking up Saturday morning from just the hard chorus party you had on Friday night, looking around and there's like, you know, farm animals and balloons and everything. And of course, empty bottles. You're like, what in the world happened last night? I think there will be a moment when even the hardest Trump supporters will look around and think that. And so, but man, it's going to take some time. It is going to take some time. But now you've raised, I think, the most interesting question. It is one of the unknowns, which is what will the Republican reaction be to a Trump indictment? I think the conventional wisdom based on, on past history is that there's a rally around the flag of effect that if he's indicted,

that Republicans will immediately come to his defense. And I think he's maybe perhaps counting on all of that. However, in the environment that we are in as of today may not be the case two, two days from now, but as of today, you have a lot of Republicans that are looking for an excuse to move on, who are looking at Ron DeSantis, who are kind of ticked off at Donald Trump for attacking DeSantis, who really are hoping for something that will protect them from having to go through electoral hell in 2024.

So will there be Republicans who will look at the indictment and maybe, you know, publicly say, well, you know, it's too bad, but privately say to themselves, this is good, you know, please, Merrick Garland, you know, let this cup pass from us. Would you save us from this? Save us? Merrick Garland, save us from ourselves. It's so funny because it's so true. Like, yeah, I think, look, I think there's no, a hundred percent, no doubt that there's a lot of people secretly rooting for Donald Trump to be gone. I think the question, if he's indicted in terms of kind of the, the id, let's, let's call it again, is do people like ron desantis actually have the courage let's just use him i people have just like anointed him the next guy i'm not convinced of it but you know

does he have the courage to say yes it's time to move on does he stay quiet and then do members of congress which i'll talk about just because i know them the best or do they come out and say hey yes maybe you broke the law it's time to move on i probably best. Do they come out and say, hey, yes, maybe you broke the law. It's time to move on. Probably not. They'll probably come out and be like, this is garbage, but we got to win. So maybe it's just time to move on. But this Donald Trump thing, I mean, he's just a martyr because that's the easy answer. I know the easy answers because I've done this job for 12 years. It's to give a little something to the crazies while, you know, but, you know, hey, over here, I'm kind of reasonable. I think in the long run, he's going to be ashamed, embarrassed, staying on our country, Donald Trump, that is.

And I think anybody that supported him will be ashamed and embarrassed that they ever did. In the short term, I think really it's going to be do people have the courage to speak out or is he just a martyr? And I think if he gets indicted and everybody's saying he's just a martyr without it's time to move on, he's the front runner again. The flip side of that is that if this comes down to being, you know, who is a winner and who is a loser, and that's, that is the scenario that he fears the most because right now, Ron DeSantis is the big winner and he is the loser. And if there is that perception, either publicly or privately, that, you know what, hey, Donald Trump was absolutely fantastic. I'm talking about the base. You know, he was great. One of the greatest presidents ever. However, do we really want to go into 2024 with somebody who is under

indictment? When we could go with somebody who could give us eight years, who is not under indictment, who's proven he can win elections? You know, there is a certain pragmatism even among people who have voted for Donald Trump, because even a lot of that rationalization, as you know, was we're going to go along because that's how we get elected. If the perception does spread that this will cost power, this will cost elections, that this is the one way that Republicans will be defeated. I think it will change the dynamic, but I don't know how much. I think you're probably right. Well, let me just say real quick, too. I think what we will be able to tell, and I think what will be able to give us some kind of insight in the next week or two is,

does Donald Trump successfully blame Kevin McCarthy and Mitch McConnell? Or does he continue to take some of the blame? Because he is desperately trying to pivot on them. That'll be a question I think that'll kind of be revelatory in terms of the future. Well, we know that he's going to blame Mitch McConnell. He's already done that. So he's going to do everything possible to foment a civil war in the minority caucus in the Senate. But now, great segue, Kevin McCarthy, who is hanging on by a fingernail and knowing the one thing he cannot do is antagonize the Orange God King down in Mar-a-Lago. And if the Orange God King calls up and says, Kevin, I would love for you to be speaker, but I need you to do me a favor. I need you to declare your endorsement of me today before I say anything about this.

What's Kevin McCarthy going to do? He's going to cave, isn't he? Oh, of course he's going to cave. This couldn't happen to a nicer guy. Like I, you know, again, for those that don't know, I used to be great friends with Kevin McCarthy. He's been the biggest disappointment of my life. And, you know, let's look at Elise Stefanik, who I think is probably thinking, OK, if Kevin goes down, I can be the next speaker right away. I mean, as we're losing seats or having the lack of a red way, if she already tweets out her endorsement of Donald Trump trump like how pathetic can you get by the way how obvious can you get so kevin now here's the dynamics in the caucus so yes

andy biggs is going to run against the first speaker that really is meaningless because kevin will get a majority of the caucus so let's say they end up with 220 people yeah he needs 111 so that'll be done the question then is do you get to 218 on the floor? Because that's what you need. And that's where people can extract power. Why is Marjorie Taylor Greene super supportive of Kevin? She doesn't like Kevin. There's a reason. He's promised something to her, I guarantee you. Why is Matt Gaetz against Marjorie Taylor Greene? Because probably Kevin McCarthy has yet to promise him anything. And secondarily, he wants to be more famous than Marjorie Taylor Greene.

Okay, let me play this soundbite. I think you've already answered the question. But I mentioned earlier, I did not have Matt Gates attacking Marjorie Taylor Greene this harshly on my scorecard. This is Matt Gates, who, by the way, is talking on Lindell TV. I mean, he's hanging out with my pillow guy. Let's play that. So I think there were strategic decisions that were wrong. I think those strategic decisions illuminate a lack of trust. And whatever Kevin has promised Marjorie Taylor Greene, I guarantee you this. At the first opportunity, he will zap her faster than you could say Jewish space laser.

And I wish that wasn't the case, but it is the conduct and it is the pattern and practice of Kevin McCarthy over years that showcase this. For the first time in my life, I got to agree with something Matt Gates said. That was pretty funny. But it appears that the nutcase caucus has now got knives out for one another. And this is what you have when every single one of them is sitting there going, I can be a kingmaker. I can be that one vote, that two votes. It's never been principle-based. The Freedom Club, I call them the Freedom Club, they've never been principle-based.

It's always been about becoming famous, even if they don't believe it in their heart. But somebody like Gates, I mean, that's literally all he wants. Same with Marjorie Taylor Greene. But yeah, you're right. When you're, you know, when there's a 15, 20 person majority, you know, it takes a lot of people to affect that, to kind of deny, you know, the future speaker his votes. But when it's just like three, four, five, you can find that. Which is why I think the Democrats need to be really thinking about and working people like frankly, AOC and some

of those that are going to never vote for Republican, find a Republican that is agreeable. Try to find a couple of Republicans that are in elected office and vote for that person for speaker. It does not have to be a current member of Congress. I don't think there's a chance in hell it happens, but it would be interesting. When there was that that floated suggestion from as a congressman Bacon, who is saying, look, if if nobody can get 218, I'm willing to sit around with with Democrats and come up with with enough votes to have some sort of a reasonable compromise choice. This would be the I suppose the nightmare scenario for the Marjorie Taylor Greene's and the Kevin McCarthy's of the world.

So at the end of the day, do you think Kevin McCarthy ends up with that speaker's gavel that he wants so desperately? Oh yeah, because he's a master at absolutely kissing whoever's butt he needs to. Okay, so what is it like though, if in fact he ends up with 220 votes, 218 is the majority, what kind of a functional or

non-functional majority is that? It's a totally non-functional majority because, again, I've lived this where, you know, we want to defund Obamacare, let's say. Well, we don't defund it enough. Or if we want to just pass the budget, we have to defund Obamacare because there's 10 Republicans that are willing to vote no on a conservative bill so that we don't have enough people to get it done. If you're down to one or two in the majority, each person now has the power of a senator where every bill has to get basically not pulled to something that can win or something that gets signed a law, but to the furthest right. You want to impeach Joe Biden? If you impeach Joe Biden, I'll give you my vote for this priority of yours. It will be an unfunctional majority and probably Kevin will be the equivalent of the dog that caught the

car. Obviously, he thinks that any kind of winning is better than losing and having the majority is better than being in the minority. On the other hand, if you wanted to come up with a scenario, a nightmare scenario for Kevin McCarthy, it has to be something very close to this where he has the title without the real power. He has the responsibility, but an absolutely impossible job. I mean, if John Boehner couldn't make it work, if Paul Ryan couldn't make it work, who imagines that Kevin McCarthy with 220 votes is going to make it work? He certainly won't. And I'll tell you, you know, Boehner was one of the best at cutting deals. He struggled. You know, Paul Ryan knew policy. He was a moderate good guy. He struggled. Kevin

McCarthy's going to have trouble. Here's the real question, Charlie, is do the new moderate Republicans, I don't even know if there are any or who they are, are they willing to say, we're not going to vote for you, Kevin, if you go too far crazy? That's the big question. I don't know the answer to that. We'll see. We will see. Adam Kinzinger, thank you so much for coming back on the podcast. We'll have you back on before the end of this Congress, I hope. You bet. Anytime. The Bulwark Podcast is produced by Katie Cooper with audio production

by Jonathan Siri. I'm Charlie Sykes. Thank you for listening to today's Bulwark Podcast, and we'll be back tomorrow to do this all over again.