The Bulwark Podcast - Bill Kristol: A Kleptocratic, Autocratic Cabal

Episode Date: December 1, 2025

Not only are the opportunities for personal financial gain for Trump and his White House cronies driving the administration’s foreign policy decisions, his tariffs look more and more about grift. Trump also inexplicably granted clemency to a private equity exec who ripped off ordinary Americans in a Ponzi scheme, while he plans a pardon for a former Honduran president who trafficked cocaine to America—even as he orders the bombings of suspected drug smugglers in the Caribbean. Meanwhile, on the immigration front, Border Patrol is moving into NOLA, and the administration is exploiting the heinous and tragic DC Guard shooting to try to rid the country of black and brown immigrants. Bill Kristol joins Tim Miller. show notes Bill's 'Bulwark on Sunday' on Trump's anti-immigrant agenda Tim's 'Bulwark Take' on Scott Jennings WSJ's piece, "Make Money Not War: Trump’s Real Plan for Peace in Ukraine" NYT on David Sacks Andy McCarthy on the killing of two survivors of a missile strike in the Caribbean Makeup-less Trump at Mar-a-Lago New Bulwark merch! Go to https://www.american-giant.com and get 20% off your first order with promo code BULWARK. Thanks to American Giant for sponsoring the show!

Hello, welcome to the Bullwark podcast. I'm your host Tim Miller. It is, it's December 1st somehow. I don't, I don't really know how that happened. I got to start Christmas shopping. I don't, I don't know. What's, what's going on, Bill? How are you doing? How is your Thanksgiving? Time flies when you're having fun, Tim. You know, it's the Trump. Is that right? Sometimes the Trump era seems like. like it goes in dog years or whatever, but maybe this is the opposite. We're all. Yeah, I don't know. It has felt like a long year. But my Thanksgiving was good.

Thank you. And yours? Wine is good. The whole family was at a big house on the beach, which explains my beach clothes for the YouTube viewers. You know, is that restful to have four children under seven at the beach? Not really. But is it fun and nice and wholesome. It is.

So I'm happy to be back with you, though. I want to indulge, you know, it's podcast hosts. rights, I think, to begin, it's a lot of news, but to begin with the stuff that's happening on my neck of the woods, which is in New Orleans. And the Border Patrol plans its invasion of New Orleans into Jackson Square, beginning today. Unfortunately, I'm flying back tonight, so I'll be in the air during this, but there is a protest tonight at 6 p.m. in Lafayette Square for all the locals listening, if you want to head down there. You had your conversation yesterday with Aaron Rehn-Reklin-Melnick that focused on immigration and what their plans are,

obviously, this is absurd to send the CPB into New Orleans. There's no, this is a, you know, solution in search of a problem. And we'll kind of see how it shakes out, but based on what we've now seen in Chicago, Charlotte, and elsewhere, I think we know it's coming. So I'm wondering what your thoughts are on that and your conversation with Aaron yesterday. I mean, I am curious to see what happens. And I think the upshot of my conversation with Aaron was worrisome. And is a genuine expert on this obviously and follows it very closely. And it's been, I think, a voice of alarm, but a little bit cautious alarm in the sense that, well, they can't really ramp up as fast as they said they would and there are some legal constraints. But he's been struck

too by just how far they've gone, how far they're going. And with all the money that's flooding in and all their talk about now moving beyond just, well, gee, we have to kick out the criminals to just flat out remigration. We've got to clean, you know, we're going to remove 53 million And foreigners, Trump said, didn't he have, it was at Thanksgiving, his Thanksgiving tweet, most of whom, I think he said, are criminals and others of such types in public charges, unbelievable nonsense. They seem to be all in on this. And, you know, practically, I've always thought, well, Trump pulled back a little.

It's not very popular. It's getting crazier and crazier. But there seems to be no instinct to pull back. So I think, for me, what it says is we sort of want to think we've seen the worst of it, you know, probably Chicago. That was kind of, that was bad. But, you know, they've got to let up at some point. They've got money flooding in.

They're hiring people. They're hiring people who like doing this, apparently. The more you see these videos of ICE and the Border Patrol, they're finding new cities to go to, as you just said. And it's bad. I mean, I think the degree to which we are going to have this just chugging ahead in a lawless and brutal way and the radicalization of the anti-immigration agenda, if I can put it that way, it's not good.

The individual stories, you know, I'm already obviously getting a lot of texts from folks locally in Louisiana and just anecdotes, a little Mexican restaurant that opened up after Hurricane Katrina, like closing down because you don't want to put any of the workers at risk, that dialysis center saying like people aren't showing up to get their dialysis because there's worried that ICE is going to be there. I mean, it's just like there's just so few people that are for this, to your point, about like the political argument for it is crazy.

And I do think that's the importance in this case of the aforementioned protests, and showing up and speaking out about it because, while it seems like Trump and Miller, et cetera, are not going to be cowed, I do think that, like, to the extent that we're seeing some cracks in the Republican world, I think it's possible that some of them will be less supportive as this continues to escalate and go forward. And I think that it's important to, you know, kind of focus on it for that reason. I totally agree. And, you know, I say this in the newsletter or a slightly different context, but Congress can control this. I mean, the notion that there's just enough I think we can do except, you know, demonstrate, and I'm for demonstrating, they'll get me

wrong. I've been very impressed. I think actually the citizen action with regard to ICE, 98% of it, 2% of it's probably over the top, but has been really admirable, I've got to say. People are taking risks and doing much more than they need to do to go out on the street and help people who are being harassed and not more than harassed. I mean, being obviously seized by ice and harassed as well. So I'm impressed by the citizen reaction, but Congress can stop it. Congress can put all kinds of rules in place on use of ICE, use of Border Patrol standards for which they should pursue, under which they should operate and so forth. I feel I was silly saying Congress, Congress, Congress, the Republicans in Congress, could you please do something?

It's like pathetic to keep saying it, I suppose. On the other hand, as you say, there are some cracks and they really do need to do something. Otherwise, we're going to have three years. If you didn't like what you've been seeing in Chicago for the last month or two, we're going to have a year or maybe three years of that. And city after city, and what is it going to do to the country? I mean, and then with tens of billions of dollars more behind ICE and the border control. Yeah. I mean, Congress is funding it to the point that they can stop and put rules around it. I think it actually, it feels pathetic, but it isn't to bring out the Republicans in Congress. There was a story that came across this morning, but someone's kind of flown out of the radar, but Trump's

pulled a lot of nominees lately because, like, Republican senators behind the scenes, you know, doing things. So again, you know, you had Epstein, the vote go against him and everything unravel. As he starts to feel more like a lame duck, you know, just sort of a little bit more courage or a little bit more willingness to kind of, you know, put sticks in the spokes of what they're trying to do. I think it's possible. I don't think it's particularly likely particular on this issue since it's so central to Trump. But, you know, I mean, there are potentially things around the edges that can be done. And obviously in Louisiana's only happening because our stupid governor is allowing it to happen. And then, you know, maybe in

certain states, not Louisiana, unfortunately, but in other states, I do wonder if the politics are a little different. We talk about the individual stories, just this other one from over the weekend of Lucia Beloza. She's a 19-year-old college student. She was brought to the U.S. from Honduras when she was eight. She was on her way to surprise her family for Thanksgiving break, flying from the northeast down to Texas. She was detained at the airport in Boston and deported. to Honduras. She had a federal judge's order blocking removal, and yet the government deported her anyway to a country that she hasn't lived in since she was eight.

Just insane, totally depraved behavior that has like 20% support in the country doing like deporting dream or kids back to countries they never really lived in. And I think in addition to being illegal, like the other thing that struck me from the weekend of Christie Nome was out. And she basically confirms in an interview that she has. approved the planes that sent the Venezuelans to Sikot in El Salvador, even after the judge objected. And so you do, I think, have like this humanitarian crisis, along with like a real, some real rule of law, you know, questions and potential issues down the line, should we ever get

through this. It is depraved. That's a good word for it, unfortunately. I mean, really, unfortunately, that this is happening in this country. And these are not marginal cases. This is not the sort of reasonable version of a restrictionist agenda. We should let fewer people in. We should be a little stricter about the ones we find who have broken the law and maybe done something violent and make sure they really get expelled. It's so many miles or whatever furlongs removed from this.

And also the mask came off this weekend this past few days in terms of what their agenda is with Trump embracing re-migration, a term that's become popular on the far right in Europe to mean, and this is literally what it means. and what Trump's implying way in this is 53 million foreigners, not just stop people from coming, we want to get rid of people who've come here,

not just people who've broken the law, but people who've come here legally or people who are undocumented, but haven't broken any other laws. But even if they are documented and they're children. We want to turn this country to want to get rid of the impact

of all these people, basically brown and black people, basically in Europe and here, who have come to this country. And when Trump says, 53 million foreigners, most of whom were criminals or public charges or sponging off the country, whatever he says in that one tweet. He's talking about, I don't know, he's talking about J.D. Vance's in-laws, right?

He's talking about his wife, his wife, just mentioned, and her at his own in-laws. I mean, not that he cares, I guess, but it's grotesque. I mean, really is grotesque. And the policy that follows from this understanding is depraved, and so un-American, so anti-American. The public has been good, actually, in its reaction, I would say. all things considered, given that they were genuinely concerned about the border and that Trump had a bit of an advantage on that issue to start of. But it would be nice for Republican members of Congress. And other elites spoke up a little. It's not like business leaders don't have some

say in this. It's not like they couldn't raise this when they were at their black tie dinners with Trump, you know. It's not like others couldn't weigh in. So I really, I don't know. Maybe it's, as I say, one feels a little foolish sometimes just saying this over and over. But things do change, you know, and you say things a few times and they don't have any effect. And then if Trump's at 38% instead of 45%. And if there, as you say, if there are cracks that are emerging into support because of Epstein and other issues, one has to just keep saying it, I guess. Sure.

And business leaders locally also in Charlotte, New Orleans. And I was looking at the kind of the list of the sponsors on the protests. You know, in New Orleans, I'm not seeing the Chamber of Commerce on there, you know. Right. And in the past, business has actually been an ally in a lot of ways on the immigration issue. You mentioned the Trump lead. So this is in response to this terrible shooting in D.C. which I want to talk about, but I'm just going to read a little bit from it.

I mean, I think, obviously, folks will have seen this, but just to set the table, these West Virginia National Guard soldiers who've been deployed to D.C., we're still in D.C. We're near the White House when they were shot by an Afghan assaili, basically. A shooter was in the anti-Taliban paramilitary force in Afghanistan, and so he qualified for the program that allowed Afghans to, that basically helped us to come to America after the end of the Afghanistan war. This process started during Biden. He was actually approved for asylum during the Trump administration.

I don't think that's going to be happening anymore. I want to talk about the actual murder and the National Guard soldiers, particularly Sarah Bexstrom, who died in a second. But to your point on Trump's reaction, he writes, I will permanently pause migration from all third world countries, denaturalize migrants who undermine domestic tranquility and deport any. foreign national who's a public charge security risk or non-compatible with Western civilization. Those are two things that are just worth noting there. So we're going to get rid of the legal status of people that undermine domestic tranquility. So what could that be? That could literally be anything.

That could be somebody that sends a tweet criticizing Trump or posting a meme about Charlie Kirk, we've seen this, or obviously commenting on Israel war. Like these are the types of things that potentially could lead to someone losing their green card status in the country. We've already seen it. And then we're going to deport people who are non-compatible with Western civilization. To your point about the racial element of this, I did a little rant about Scott Jennings over in the board takes feet if people want to listen to that. But like, what are these guys even talking about anymore when they're talking about Western civilization? Like for a while, it was talking about kind of like enlightenment ideology and,

you know, like our allies, you know, are, you know, with other Western nations and like being Democratic. I mean, like, fighting for the West had this meeting in like from the 80s till recently of, you know, like, you know, basically the sort of classically liberal ideology in our system of alliances and capitalism and trade. Trump's against all that. Like, Trump is trying to break down our Western alliances and, and rely us with the Sharia law dictators and El Salvador and maybe Russia, right? And so, like, what do they mean when they say people are non-compatible with Western civilization, I mean, it seems like basically that they're non-white and that they're critical of this administration is essentially what they mean.

Oh, totally, totally. It's really, I mean, this is this awful killing that he's using that excuse. And this guy apparently had some kind of psychotic breakdown, basically. You know, his family's been worried about him. They tried to get him. I think some counseling. It didn't work. You drove cross-country.

It's terrible what happened, obviously. But the idea that this is an indictment of Afghan. fans who fought with us. Well, it's pure demagoguery. What can you say, right? Well, and again, like, it's going to be really clear. And obviously, our listeners understand this, but, you know, assholes clip all this. Like, this person, this is so sick and unacceptable in all regards.

And, like, there's just nothing that can be said. Like, Mark Hartling's piece was so good. And the boarder people should go read it about, like, what this is going to do to the fellow members of the West Virginia National Guard. And, like, in his experience, like, the tragedy of losing somebody like this who was just trying to serve the country. Like, it is horrible what happened. Like, simultaneously to that, like, we all speak, you know, this is one of the rare things that people on the right and the left both agree on right now about the problem of mental

health issues, like for soldiers, like our soldiers, American soldiers that were serving in Iraq and Afghanistan and how to deal with that when they come home and like the challenges related to mental health services and all this. So it's like, there's this horrible war that went on for two decades in after. Afghanistan. And a lot of people were helping us in that effort. The options that we're facing us were like abandon all of them and say, hey, thanks for the help. Screw you. Good luck with the Taliban. Who will end up treating all of you just horribly. You'll be prisoned or killed or whatever. So we can abandon all the people that helped us, which, you know, in the long term, what is that going

to say about America? And, you know, when we ask a future nation to help us, when national security is at stake, so we can abandon them. Or we can, like, take the people that helped us, allow them to come here if they so choose, try to integrate, you know, integrate them into society, provide the services. And like, they're bad options. Like, they were bad. Like, those, that is it. That is what you're left with. And obviously, a lot of folks, we, we know, Will Selbur and our friends have been working with a lot of the Afghans that have come to America who are like great Americans who are, you know, working and going to, and for them all to be smeared because of this one guy's, like, mental break and his horrific actions is terrible.

And, like, worse than them being smeared is now you have, like, Trump, like, completely changing the policies to make our immigration policy closer to China than it is to, you know, what we've wanted in a free country. And so, like, these are just, like, the hard questions that, you know, everybody has to grapple with in a sensitive situation, such as our leaving of Afghanistan. and like, you know, look, you know, we all know what these guys are going to do about it, right? Which is just demagogue and use it to essentially eliminate anybody having the opportunity to come to come to America for a better life. And so, you know, because they don't care about that. No, I mean, that's very clear, right?

The Haitians, Springfield, I always come back to that one, but it's the most obviously. There was no charge. They went to a town that was in decline. They helped survive it. They were working hard. And they were attacked and, and they were. the object of demagoguery a year ago, a little over a year ago, and he now has, in fact, followed through

and has pulled maybe temporary protected status from the Haitians and is going to try to deport them all. There's no accusation of anything there, right? They don't have a higher crime rate. I mean, it's all, you know, it's all, they don't want them here. They do not want those people here. They don't want their kids here. They don't want the country to look a little browner and a little darker,

and they don't want people from, quote, third world countries, just the way 100 years ago, people didn't want Jews from Poland or Italian. from southern Italy, and it's bigotry, and that's what it is. But the damage it's doing, I mean, A, it could be, some of it should be stopped by Congress, but B, the damage it's doing to the social fabric, that you think, well, to the people themselves, of course, are the objects of the bigotry, and who now worry about their future. I mean, Trump is, but also, in general, to the social fabric, I mean, it's important to have a country that, where people have the

incentive and the feeling they should try to work together and make this all work out, not the opposite. Yeah. And JD, like when he was at the Vatican, you know, after the Pope died, is doing an interview. I think it was with Ross, doubt that, where he's talking about how we need to do this because of the social fabric, right? Like the social fabric of the country has already deteriorated. So this is all like part of the rationale for, you know, this deportation regime and these new policies, just keeping the country together. That's absurd on its face. Like, it's absurd on its face. It's based on this premise that like 10 years from, now, if the country is a little bit whiter, then we're all going to get along better.

Like, what is evidence for that? I mean, like, the, A, like, the political divide is maybe the starkest between whites in the country. I mean, like, if you just look at it. And what we're doing now is going into these communities terrorizing them. You know, we saw this in Charlotte. As I mentioned, we're saying in New Orleans now. People are scared to go to school.

People are scared to get health services that engenders bitterness. like that is doing the opposite. And then taking this horrible tragedy in D.C. And, you know, making it about, okay, well, now we're going to take certain classes of people and attack them and otherwise. Like, that's what they're deciding to do. Okay. Like, if they want to advance their policy, because that's their ideology, fine. But trying to wrap this and the idea that this is going to help the social fabric of the country is preposterous.

So I should just say, because I met you, Andrew Wolfe was the other West Virginia. Guard guy that got shot. The latest update is we're taping this is that he was a critical condition, but things are looking better for him. So hopefully he comes out the other side of us. That's just one of these situations where it's like, it's so fraught because every element of it is bad, right? Like the shooter's actions, just abominable, terrible. It's just a nightmare. The poor West Virginia National Guard soldiers, why are they in D.C. during Thanksgiving, serving no real purpose. Trump's reaction to it,

like the worst type of demagoguery. Me and Bill's podcast has been positive like the last two weeks, okay, people? So we're going to have to get into the muck a little bit today. Hey, everybody, you wouldn't know it. Looking at my tan right now, but fall is in full swing.

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So I want to talk about our gangs of criminals and how we're acting across Venezuela, Russia, Hardens, some other areas. But do you just want to talk a little bit about the newsletter and the big picture of this first? Yeah, I mean, we have, I guess, was provoked by the pretty obvious war crime that seems to have been committed

if the Washington Post reporting is to be believed and no one's really challenged it seriously. Blowing up all these boats is probably a war crime or lawless, certainly. even Andrew McCarthy of National Review says, but, you know, ordering a second strike to kill the two survivors, which seems to have happened, is literally the definition of a war crime. It is the definition of a war crime in the Defense Department manual. Killing people who put in a shipwreck is sort of the quintessential thing you can't do, even if the original thing were lawful, which it probably wasn't. So terrible that we did it. It's notable for people who don't know Andrew McCarthy has been, is a National Review, their legal writer who was, you know, Pretty generous to Trump, I would say, over the cases with regards to the impeachments.

I think that's a nice way to put it. And I just think it's worth noting because I went and read it after you mentioned to me. Has been, there is no caveat. There is no, you know, kind of talking around it, like his description of what the lawlessness of the government's actions in Venezuela before this report. And then now with this killing of potentially, you know, reportedly two people that had survived the initial attack. and then we just gathered them out of the water anyway. I mean, he was just abundantly clear about the legality of it, which is noteworthy given kind of where he's been before on Trump.

Yeah, absolutely. And then, of course, we have the normal financial crimes, money crimes, the grifting. I mean, it's so out of control. It's so massive. It's so many different people are now involved in some different fronts. Some of it's now mixed up, maybe it always was, but a little more obviously mixed up in key foreign policy decisions. So the Whitkov stuff with Russia, influencing our Ukraine policy.

Obviously, in the Middle East, we've seen that for quite a while. It's not just that they're getting rich, which is they shouldn't, because it's against the law, to do what they're doing, but also they're getting rich at the expense of our national interest of doing their duty as public servants, beginning with the president and all the way down, but the amount of it is really astounding. So that's upsetting. Then, of course, there's the Epstein thing. We'll see if they continue to try to cover up those sex crimes. So we have money crimes, sex crimes, war crimes.

It's a gang of criminals. I mean, I guess I somehow that St. Augustine quote occurred to me and then I kind of started to write the thing. You know, I write the morning shots, the newsletter mostly in the morning, but I collect material the night before. I had so much stuff, and I looked at it this morning. I thought, oh, I could go. I should probably go through all these things, you know,

all the evidence of corruption, of criminality, of just shamelessness and grifting and conning their own supporters and so forth. And I didn't actually in the newsletter, but I just didn't have the energy at the time. Finally, this is like it got too depressing on what it was like we were saying before. We were a little upbeat the last two weeks. We were upbeat because the wheels are coming off. And I think that is true instead.

These two things can both be true. The wheels are kind of coming off and it's also getting worse. And which is going to happen first is a huge question. And also the other problem is if the wheels come off, if you want to torture this metaphor, you know, like an out of control bus careening across the American landscape and across the world. That's not a good thing either. But anyway, I think that's why we're sort of seem simultaneous. We seem like schizophrenic quality on this point.

because it is kind of an odd situation. But I mean, again, the degree of criminality. And I so maybe I shouldn't use the term criminal. It's a little strong. I could say grifter and I could say this. But I mean, they are a gang of criminals. And from the top down, and they're all complicit. And the ones who aren't personally engaging in the grifts are complicit and legitimate. If you're in the White House counsel's office, you're letting all this happen. And I've lost all patience with the notion that some of them are better than others almost at this point. I feel like if you're part of it, you're part of it. And if you're a part of it. And if in the Congress and doing nothing about it, you're kind of part of it, too. So it's bad.

Amen. I kind of feel like we should just leave the podcast there. It'd be a little bit of a short podcast, but that pretty much sums everything up. But why don't we do what you did not have the stomach to do in the newsletter, which is go through each of them one at a time briefly. In Venezuela, I think this is the most striking one. Pund was not intended there. But as mentioned, reportedly, Higgsath ordered that everybody be dead in the first attack on the boat in the Caribbean. two people survived. They did a follow-up strike, killing two people in the water. Higgs has been asked about this.

He doesn't really answer. Trump's been asked about this. He doesn't really answer. They're not denying it. And then after kind of these media questions, Hanks says posts onto X, a picture that is a spoof children's book titled Franklin Target's Narco Terrorists. And it features a turtle shooting a boat with a bazooka.

And interestingly, the turtle appears to be. missing the boat. The missile or whatever it is seems to be hitting just to the sign of the boat, which is maybe kind of an apt metaphor because it seems like that might be what have actually happened, which is why we had to shoot a second time to kill the people that were at sea. But just like the childishness combined with the criminality, I think is pretty noteworthy. It's unbelievable. I mean, did they get incidentally, that's a pretty popular children series, right? The Franklin and the TV series, I think, from the books and all this. We're not big Franklin readers.

in our house. Yeah, I don't recall it that well from our... It came out. I noticed I looked up for two seconds, mid-80s or something, so I don't really remember it too well from our kids, but anyway, they should be suing or something. Not that it matters these days. I guess Hague says the right to... I don't know. I'm pro-sewing. I was trying to go to Andrew Weissman

into suing Trump on the podcast last week, which I do think he should. That was not a bit. Right. It's a total defamation. What he said what Trump has said about him, right? Yeah. Right. Yeah, no, Hegseth is... I mean, it's juvenile, it's offensive. And I'm saying, that first boat, the more you think about it, the war one reads up, the pictures in this idiotic cartoon sketch that Hank Seth used

AI to, or someone used AI to produce, has two or three, if I recall, drug smugglers in the boat, and then a whole bunch of drugs, like to show you all of their drug smuggling drugs. This first boat had 11 people, which is why people from the beginning thought this probably wasn't really a drug boat. It's probably a human, you know, a smuggling boat, which means some of the people in there were people wanted to come to the U.S., were paid, I suppose, these traffickers to bring them, or somewhere else. Or somewhere else or treated out or something, yeah. and just got killed. And so it's even, in a weird way, the stupid cartoon thing seems to suggest confirmation

for the notion that this first boat was not even, even if you think it's okay to blow them up, which it isn't without any evidence and knowing who they are. These people really, really, really weren't okay to kill. So anyway, it's horrifying. They're not going to apologize. I don't know internally that they'll be held accountable. The whole JAG system has been gutted, the Justice Department. the degree to which we've depended on a Justice Department being willing,

maybe sometimes a little cautious with its own administration, but willing to actually enforce law against people in the government. I mean, if that stops happening, what's left? I mean, who enforces the law? The President doesn't insist on it. The JAGs, DOD seems to have been gutted in terms of its internal checks and balances. Justice Department is not going to do anything. It's really very bad.

This is when you come back to Congress. Courts can do a little. You come back to Congress. and this has in other areas. Now, here we do have a little bit of congressional action, right? The kind of joint statements by the Republican shares and the ranking Democrats and both the Senate and House Armed Services Committee. So maybe a little hope that this is so shocking that maybe they will do something

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The President of the United States is just kind of out there making claims that may or may not be accurate about our military actions related to Venezuela, which is potentially a no-fly zone. Risky flights, I guess, flying through there. And it's this question, like, what are we going to do? We point on shooting planes out of the air. That was the implication of Trump's announcement. You know, maybe this is one of the fake things. I mean, this is part of the, what do they call it? the crazy man theory. It's like, you know, you just have a president out there making, making random proclamations and, you know, seeing how people react to it.

So we have a maybe, maybe not no-fly zone over Venezuela. Scott Bessent was out, this is about a week ago now, but I don't think I talked about it. Worth mentioning. He made kind of an aside comment on the Laura Ingram show when talking about inflation, where he said, if something happens down in Venezuela, maybe we can see oil prices come down even more. This is kind of an interesting comment for the Treasury Secretary to make that maybe part of the inflation strategy is war in Venezuela where we take their oil and that decreases oil prices. I was reading this morning, Matt Iglesias has had a pretty interesting piece about like this potential war in Venezuela.

And it's like, I feel like I'm about as sympathetic as you could be to like, there was like a quasi serious proposal going around for the last few years, like related to this, which was that, you know, it would. benefit the U.S. to help for there to be more stability, obviously, in Venezuela, for there to not be migrants. It would make us less reliant on Middle Eastern and Russian oil. And it's kind of all these arguments. Like, you can maybe sell me as a recuperating neocon on. But like, we're not doing any of these things. This is just a totally shoot from the hip. We're like shooting boats out of the sea. And we've got random aircraft carriers around Venezuela. And there's no plan. But I feel like we've been saying this in the podcast for like a month now. But, They're at least doing the things that they would do if they are planning on trying to overthrow Maduro.

And I guess supposedly Trump talked to Maduro over the weekend. Who knows about what? I still think Trump's aversion, the lesson he's learned that starting these wars doesn't work out well for presidents politically. It might be strong enough that it's all bluff and talk and he's going to then claim victory. He was Maduro and he will make some deal. And maybe he will get access to the U.S. access to a lot of the oil or something like that. And then he'll forget, of course, entirely about the huge human rights violations and the refugees and everything else. But all the other damage were jurors doing to the country and decide, you know what, he can get along with the juror, just like he's getting along with every other dictator he runs into and can cut a deal with.

So I don't know. It's so irresponsible. It's so reckless. The side effects in Latin America and elsewhere, the knock-on effects could be, could well be very damaging. And we could stumble into a war, which we are totally unprepared for and have no plan for it's that I know of. I mean, apart from bobbing a few places, I mean, to your point about maybe it's just a straight kleptocracy deal, that could very well be the outcome of this, given the also reporting that we have from over the weekend from the Wall Street Journal with regards to Russia. And maybe that is what is undergirding his call with Maduro. This journal piece, which I'll put in the show notes, because it's just like really.

It's really, yeah, it's just hard to even process, like, how we have reverted. from the entire, for all of the, you know, mistakes and misjudgment calls, the post-World War II system, like at the very least, like we had a rules-based order where leaders of all these countries were trying to make decisions based on the best interests of people and make judgment calls and deal with threats. And, you know, there was no really thought that anyone from Eisenhower to Bush was like cashing in on the side based on the, these deals. Not the case anymore. We're fully into spoil system, kleptocracy, foreign policy. The title of the article is Make Money Not War, Trump's Real Plan for Ukraine. I'm just going to read

one of the paragraphs. Gentry Beach, a college friend of Donald Trump Jr. and campaign donor has been in talks to acquire a stake in Russian Arctic gas if it's released from sanctions. Another Trump donor, Stephen Lynch, paid $600,000 this year to a lobbyist close to Trump, Jr. was helping him seek a Treasury Department license to buy the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. We've discussed all the Whitkoff family issues. I mean, like, they have completely intermingled questions about what to do with Ukraine with questions of how individuals, in addition to America, they would argue America, but also specific individuals close to the administration can cash in and economically benefit from Russia. Yeah, they're selling out Ukraine, which is

fighting bravely, obviously, against invasion by a dictator, brutal invasion of a dictator, for the sake of their personal financial interest. I mean, I hate to stand hysterical, but it almost literally is the definition of treason, right? It's not treason, we're not fighting, it's Ukraine. So it's, but it's still,

it's not for some mistaken view of Russia could be an important ally in the future and geopolitical blah, blah, blah, blah, right? It's pure personal money. Yeah, and again, to their pitch, the idea that the U.S.

is going to benefit materially from economic rapprochement with Russia is insane. It's insane. Like, sure. Like, on the margins, could specific companies benefit and, like, could a couple, you know, could some jobs be created?

Like, like, Russia is not, like, providing, it's not like Nixon going to China. Like, that is not what, that's not what's happening here. Like, if we're just being frank about the economic potential of, this deal. So the one just a little factoid in that article, which I, like, I knew, but I just

didn't, I didn't have the specific fact in my mind. And I think it's pretty, it's striking enough to mention. Wickoff is planning his sixth trip to Russia, which is coming up here this month where he plans to meet Putin again. He hasn't been to Ukraine. He hasn't been to Ukraine. So, like, the main man, like the point man for this negotiation, like, who has been, like, receiving awards from Putin and advancing Russian talking points, like, isn't even listening to the country that is our purported ally in this situation. Crazy. It's sickening, really. I mean, really is sickening. It's one thing for people that's to say to make mistaken judgments about geopolitics and all.

This is just selling out for personal financial. gain. Really quick on two other corruption things. I would make a mistake if I didn't mention. There's New York Times article on David Ball Sachs, who the A.I. He is really mad about this, as are a lot of his friends in Silicon Valley, because, you know, basically people should read that whole article, too, but the long and short of it is. Sacks has a ton of investments.

He has, I guess, 449 stakes in companies. companies with ties to artificial intelligence. He is the point man for deregulating everything AI-related. Folks in Silicon Valley and Sacks are basically saying, well, you know, this isn't a Tom homin situation. Like, nobody's handed him 50 grand personally, you know, to carve out a specific deal for somebody. Like, the New York Times didn't demonstrate any of that.

Like, it's just a broader story about how the AI is Azar, his point man is just mobbed up with all the big AI companies and on a very sensitive topic with also has some geopolitical issues like for example us now offering chips to UAE and Saudi who are you know maybe not the most reliable partners for you know depending on what your belief is about the potential for the most highly productive chips he's doing everything possible to kind of maximize the AI company's profits of potential and maximize the deal potential even with foreign despots without any sort of reins or limits on it. The AI guys say, well, good, that's what we want

because we want to win the competition. I think everybody else is like, I don't know. Maybe shouldn't we have some balancing views? I'm not saying that we kill the industry, but should we really have a total shill from the industry who has literal financial stake in these companies being the point man on this? That notion is not appreciated among David

and his friends in Silicon Valley. I've forgotten about Tom Holman. That's so old-fashioned. getting $50,000 in cash in a paper bag. I mean, it's so trivial compared to the degree of what's going on or the crypto stuff, the Bitcoin stuff, the AI stuff. Someone has a good tracker of how much money the Trump family has made so far in the Trump second term.

And they're $3 billion. So for Tom Homan, he's like a small potato. I don't really feel bad for Tom Hohman on the way hand. He should have a Bitcoin, home and cash, you know. And all this stuff is not just, again, that they're getting them but this damage they're doing to the system and to the country and to the world order. I mean, to friends around the world, it's really something else. And, you know, I used to think on tariffs even like, well, he's mistaken.

He has a stupid economic theory. And I guess that's true to some degree. And obviously he does believe in that, I guess. But so much of that is also a grift. I mean, this is where I guess I've now lost any faith that anything they do is, I mean, the tax bill. At one point I would have said, well, that's just Reagan kind of, you know, tax theory. taken to an extreme and foolish and so forth. But nonetheless, you can see why they think it's good for the country.

But I also think now the most simple-minded, if I can put it this way, neo-Marxist's explanation is probably correct that, you know what, they want more money. So they've passed a tax bill that gives them more money. And just to make the libs mad, who listen, I should say that the top tax rate is like 40% lower than it was during the Reagan tax bill in 81. So I mean, there's some reasons to maybe not do the. Reagan tax policy now, different from 1981. But anyway, one other corruption story. I don't know

if there'll be much to say about this, but just want to make sure that everybody's seen it. Donald Trump granted clemency to private equity executive David Gentile. I hate he's smearing my people, the Gentiles. David Gentile had just begun a seven-year prison sentence for what prosecutors described as a $1.6 billion fraud scheme. He was the founder of GPB capital, and he had been in jail for 12 days when he was granted clemency. This is also, you know, one of these frauds that, like, there were actual victims, right? It's not one of these things where there was a fraud where it was like, he kind of lied about the valuation of his company, and like, it's hard to find a real victim.

That's not the case here. Like, people got screwed over by this guy. And straight clemency after 12 days. I'm sure it was a real rough 12 days. in the Gleine Maxwell prison for this guy. Yeah, and God knows what money is trading hands with various family members and other friends to make this one happen.

And the Honduran one that Ant wrote about, they promised to pardon the former Honduran president who was convicted in the U.S. of financial crimes. I mean, this is not like, oh, maybe he got railroaded in some third world country, you know. And he's been, I guess, promised pardoned, promised clemency. And that turns out all to be, I thought at one point that was maybe he just liked him as he was a fellow kind of authoritarian right way, which is true also. But it turns out

there's a big financial connection there with Trump supporters, right? And it's all about Bitcoin and stuff. I couldn't even, I couldn't even follow it. It's so complicated. I was going to save this one because it hasn't happened yet, but just a little teaser for people, because we'll get into it more than later of the week. The nuts of the story here is that the leader of Honduras was working with Peter T.L. and Mark Andresen and others on what seems to be kind of an onshore version of sea-steading. T.L. was very big into sea-steading where there would be like a community on the sea that did not have to follow the laws of, you know, free countries. And that cryptocurrency would be how they traded money. And, you know, it would be legal to do

twink blood injections or whatever else Peter T.L. wants to do outside the bounds of U.S. rules. And he's going to do it on the sea. The Honduran president was like, well, we create a city here in Honduras for this type of community. There's a big investment there from the other libertarian Silicon Valley types. Simultaneously, Honduran president was doing a lot of drug trafficking. I thought the administration supposedly is really harsh on drug trafficking. That's why we're bombing boats out of the Caribbean. This guy was doing drug trafficking, among other crimes.

He gets indicted here in America. And, yeah, now the plan is for him to be part of it. We'll see how that shakes out. There's a Honduran election, I think, today. Yesterday, I think last night, I think it was unclear. I don't really know much about it. I don't know. I forgot. I think I'm cranky for the correction.

I said financial, but he was indicted and convicted here for drug smuggling, basically. Massive, massive amounts of cocaine. Yes. And so that's, yeah, Trump really cares a lot about that, allegedly, right? Yeah, very deep. Very deep. Speaking of elections, I should also mention we have the Tennessee special tomorrow with Afton Bain who is running in one of these

preposterous districts around Nashville where they pete's in Nashville until three or four districts where you have like we get one third of Nashville and then it goes all the way out to rural Tennessee. All of those districts are pretty big stretches for the Democrats. This one was maybe depending on who you talk to and what you would rather prefer, whether you want the kind of the more suburban upper middle class

Nashville types or whether you want some of the more. more like colleges, and I think in HBCU and more, you know, kind of black voters in her district. So both of them are like Republican plus 20. Pretty big stretch. But who the hell knows? Off off your election. That's tomorrow. A few of friends in Nashville call them and see if they're in that part of the pizza.

Make sure they're voting. Finally, let's end on something happy. Not happy. Not happy. Happy's not the right word. Let's end on something that we can all just kind of watch with a. bemused detachment. And that is Donald Trump's physical standing.

I don't know if you have any thoughts on this. We had a listener sent me a photo from a friend who was at a Mar-a-Lago wedding. And it was a picture of Trump, which we'll put on screen for the YouTube viewers, looking horrible. I did verify this. It was posted on an Instagram, this is not AI. There's like various slides. I saw the other pictures. and he looks very bad without his makeup on.

Like he really should just get the makeup tattooed on his face. So he's permanently orange because he looks and as bad as the orange looks. She looks horrible with his actual skin. And then we talk to this on the next level, but there's this video of him walking outside the White House where he's really laboring to walk. I don't know. I've been reluctant to be the, you know, Trump is deteriorating person.

Like in a lot of ways for me, Trump has been like decently similar from how he was. 10 years ago, always a little bit crazy. But I don't know. So I'm opening up to you, Bill Crystal, as somebody who is, you know, in Trump's generation. What do you know, you see the signs among your friend, about your peer group?

Are you seeing anything that you see from others in your peer group, I wonder? I'm going to pretend I didn't even hear that question, but I am going to finally, the only thing I'm going to say, he is, I mean, I think he felt he is declining somewhat. The thing about the corruption, just so we can get back, is it's so widespread, though. that among him and in the movement, if you order, among his supporters,

we were talking about some of the, you know, tech guys and, but obviously not just tech guys, the energy guys and everyone. I don't know. If he goes away, well, Vance is more ideological, which is both good and bad, obviously, in some ways. But I don't know. I feel like the whole thing is now so permeated, I don't know the way to say it,

that even if Trump was removed from it, popped away, it's got to chug on for its own sake. None of them could afford to let it stop. You know what I mean? And suddenly, this is a big, big problem. They can't afford to really have honest elections in 2028 because what if they lose power, then what happens to all their deals and all their corrupt? Well, everything they've done that's corrupt that could be looked into.

And also going forward, everything starts to fall apart. So I think the degree to which we now have, if this gets permitted to go on much longer, we have way beyond a Trump problem. We have sort of a systemic problem almost that it is abuse of Putin left tomorrow, I suppose. There'd be a fight over his airs. It'd be less dangerous, probably. It'd be a little better, probably. But the chances of an actual Democrat, Swaldi, winning, as opposed to just one faction or another of the kleptocratic, dictatorial, autocratic cabal.

Probably not so great. So, I guess that's, I don't know, that's my. Thanks for bringing us back down. Gloly side of the way Trump walked. Sorry about that. No, I know. He is walking very strange. He did that nice put.

Fox News did a, Fox News released a single. video of Trump's golf match, which was a kind of a chip putt that he made from the fringe. So it was an interesting editorial choice by Fox and Brett Baer, who this is, you know, in the foursome and who is cheering very excitedly. And I pointed this out on social media and some of the Trump fans are saying, like, this is just what bros do when they golf? And I was like, is that really true to news anchors golfing with presidents, golfing with lawless presidents, usually like jump for joy when they make a put? I don't know. Maybe. Maybe not. feels a little close for comfort for me, one man's opinion.

Look at the bright side, Tim. Your friend Jennings, was Scott Jennings? Yeah. Think how unhappy he was that Brett Bear was there, golfing with Trump and showing true fealty by jumping with joy when it could Scott is thinking, that could have been me. I could have, it would have helped me so much in all my efforts and endeavors, you know, and instead he's sulping with Brett Bear. Brett Bear's ahead of him in line, you know?

I should know Brett did Barry kind of make it off the ground, but he's trying to jump. Okay. The serious thing. I did want to end with an serious thing because you left me with an interesting thought that I just kind of want to leave for us to mull over. I do think that once we get into maybe next year as early as the midterms, but certainly 2028, tech world is going to try to cut a deal with the Democrats

to solve this corruption problem that you're saying. And there's going to be a lot of pressure from the big CEOs, the big platforms, the guys with big megaphones to say, Democrats, okay, like, if you just chill out, you know, on us, if you don't go after us so hard, you know, we're creating a lot of jobs. We're creating a lot of wealth in the country. We'll come back into the fold, right?

Like, we don't, you know, it was, this was just a little dalliance. And I don't know. We're looking at some of these weirdos coming behind Trump. And I don't know if we can deal with them quite as well. And that is going to be a, I think, an interesting judgment call that we're going to see different Democrats fall on different sides of that line over the next few years. Despite being mostly, I would be smeared by the leftists who follow this as a pro-corps. as a corporatist Democrat, besides being basically a capitalist Democrat.

On this one issue, I feel like I might end up finding myself on the side of the populace because I think going at these guys and not being susceptible to their siren song is probably the right way to go. But I don't know that it's a 100% clear judgment call. So anyway, that's something I'll leave people with. Do you have any thoughts on that or should we just let that hang? Oh, that's interesting. We should discuss that over the next year or two.

I'm also ambivalent. We could be sort of populist free market types, but not think that the AI guy should get special deals. I guess that would be the way to square the circle somehow. But I don't know who's going to embrace that among the Democratic people. But the one point I will make, though, I've become convinced this is an A.B. Stoddard, our former colleague, and who's doing fine and I had lunch with him this week.

She's absolutely convinced of this. Being anti-an is too strong, being skeptical of AI, being for regulating it, being serious about it, not just giving them everything. she's absolutely convinced that it'll be the winning message in the Democratic primary in 28. And that it's a good issue for people to educate themselves on for these candidates and the rest of us as well. And it'll be a big issue. Do you agree with that?

I was struck she made this case to be pretty convincing. I hadn't really thought about it much, honestly. I think it might be. And we should get AB back on the podcast. It's been too long. We can have her make it to the listeners. So AB will be calling. Bill Crystal, appreciate you very much.

Everybody else, I'll be back in my home studio tomorrow. in New Orleans. So come back and hang out with me then. Peace. I'm so can't be that home. We made it through that water. We made it through that water. That muddy, muddy water.

That's making the music right here. Water, falling, mud and water! That's funny, and by and one. Now I'm bad how they had us on that bridge, so let's get it, how we lit us, why we did what we did, when I lost my city, almost lost my mind. In and out of hotels feel like I'm doing time.

Please, Mr. Officer, don't shoot, because I ain't ain't anything there's. I was stuck up on that roof and trying to make an excuse, but they're running from the truth. We know they blew them levens, man, but we ain't got no proof. Whatever they do, I can't turn my back.

I was bone righteous, so righteous where I'm at. Send them troops humla dead at is an Iraq And tell FEMA we gonna need more than 10 stacks Wherever you're at Tapenol to the Calio One time do it big for De Nero Age town all the way to the A We appreciate the love of my people

Can't stay we'd have made us away Let it through that water That butter, butter, water Water, that muddy, muddy water That's muddy, muddy, mud and water We're letting through that water The Bullwark, The Bullwark podcast is produced by Katie Cooper with audio with audio engineering and editing by Jason Brett.