The Bulwark Podcast - Bill Kristol: Stay on Offense

Episode Date: September 2, 2024

Kamala looks to have a very narrow lead in the polls, but she needs to do more to drive Trump down—a good target would be his announcement that he's voting against protecting abortion rights in Florida. Plus, his sudden concern for Pence and Vance's copious podcast blathering.  Bill Kristol joins Tim Miller for a special Labor Day pod.  show notes: USA Today piece about Will Selber Hersh Goldberg-Polin's childhood bedroom with art about Jerusalem 

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Rest and relaxation, leisure day. I don't know. Leisure day for laborers. But this is our leisure. This is just us hanging out with you talking about politics. Last night, I don't want to just go too overboard on the sports metaphors here. Just sometimes some of our listeners, it turns them off. But don't know if you watched it, but my beloved LSU Tigers lost to USC.

There were a couple of times in the fourth quarter where they had the ball, where they were winning, where all they really had to do was just punch it in, you know, close the deal. They were winning very slightly, and they just were unable to do it. They got a little too conservative. They let USC catch up. And I kind of feel like that's where the state of the race is right now for Kamala Harris.

Hopefully the end will be better. But she's up by a little bit. But I want to make sure that we are putting our pedal to the metal for the last two months. How does that metaphor strike you? Yikes. I mean, I don't follow LSU football as closely as you, but that sounds correct as an analysis of where we are

and plausible, unfortunately, somewhat plausible as an analysis of where we might. I hope not. I guess I think not, but I think they do understand they have to stay on the offense and not go into, you know, like a prevent defense too early and so forth. And I think she did a little bit of prevent defense at that interview.

When was that? Thursday night with CNN, with Data Bash. But that was, I think she did a little bit of prevent defense at that interview. When was that Thursday night with CNN with data bash, but that was, I think tactical for that night, not for the next nine weeks, I hope and trust. Yeah. I hope that's true because things are good.

The virus has been good. We had, we had a new ABC poll out, which has her up 52 46, which is our biggest lead in the polls yet. Could be an outlier. It's one poll. That's the biggest lead that we've seen though.

And an individual, I'm sure we'll be getting more this week i was on the jvo we were doing i guess the next level maybe a week or two ago and he was like what does the equilibrium of this race look like it kind of feels like we actually reached it very quickly right which is a very narrow harris lead and you know i think that is what takes us to is it possible for her to expand that up what can be done to continue to drive trump down even further and we were texting over the weekend about one of the ads that the super PAC is running so i want to listen to that in the context of where they see the race i'm running to fight for an america where the economy works for working people, where you only have to work one job to pay the bills and where hard work is rewarded, where reproductive rights are not just

protected by the Constitution of the United States, but guaranteed in every state, because that's our America. And that's the America I believe in. FF Pack is responsible for the content of this ad. So more money has been spent on that ad than any other piece of creative in the campaign so far. And it is just a little like, okay. That's okay for me. I don't know. That's fine.

But maybe it's my grumpiness coming off that loss last night. But this is where i wake up this morning and i'm like i want blood in the teeth because the trump ads that i was seeing during the football games are aggressive on the other hand right and i think that reflects kind of where both campaigns think that they are right that the kamala harris super PAC is still doing a gauzy kind of treatment such as that and the trump ad ad is like, Kamala Harris let out, you know, these horrible criminals and, you know, doing the whole Willie Horton deal. Yeah, my glass half full vibes kicked in over the weekend, too. I thought the terrible Trump behavior at Arlington, is it spinning the other way now? He's got the families out there saying

they invited him. He's got a ton of people lying about, you know, the rules in Arlington and so forth. Harris weighed in finally with a statement. But ultimately, the death of those 13 soldiers, Marines in Afghanistan, isn't great for the Biden-Harris administration, obviously. So, I don't know. I got nervous also this week. I did a couple of things. The ABC poll is plus six. The Wall Street Journal poll, which is a very good poll, is plus one, Harris.

So, let's just assume it's, I assume it's a three to four point race right now which is right on the bubble of winning if if you think about the electoral college she's behind where clinton and biden were at this point in the polls but maybe they've corrected the polls you know to pick up the the formerly shy trump voters maybe they aren't formerly shy trump voters so maybe that's not the right comparison this is one of these things people could obsess about now, but I think she has a slight edge. And I'm a little worried. That ad that you played, it's a perfectly okay issue ad, but I don't know. Does it convince anyone who isn't already basically for reproductive rights and isn't already for Harris? I think that's the right question. So I have two views which are in contradiction with each other. One, I very much

share your notion that she has to punch Trump in the nose she has to do it in person at the debate i'm not sure how much paid media will do on that people are used to seeing anti-trump ads at this point seeing her personally stand up to trump and land a few blows i think is very important but the other thing is on the issue stuff i still think the bio ads the biographical ads might work well for harris the one thing that we know is this happened in the last several weeks is her personal favorable, unfavorable, personal, but her favorable, unfavorable, which presumably captures what people think of her, not so much the approval of Biden, Harris policies and so forth, is about even. I think it was 49-50 maybe

in the ABC poll, something like that, which is very good compared to where Biden has been, where she has been. She's been minus 30 and good compared to Trump, who's about minus nine, minus 10, unfavorable, unfavorable. If she can make this election, who do you like better? Who do you respond to better? Which is not nothing in a presidential race where they're going to be in your living room, so to speak, for four years. I think she wins.

If it's on these issues, then it's a little bit up in the air, you know, which mistake of Trump, which mistake of Trump versus which mistake of the Biden administration or which policy of Harris's that can get, you know, mischaracterized or characterized that isn't that popular. On the one hand, I think she needs to punch Trump. On the other hand, I think actually she still needs to build herself up. If she is a favorable fave, unfave on election day, she will win, I believe. If she's favorable, unfavorable sinks down to where Trump's is, even if it's about the same as Trump's, I suspect Trump wins. Yeah, well, this is why the people don't talk about double haters anymore,

because there aren't any. It's because people like her. I mean, you know, besides MAGA Republicans. I guess that's just a distinction. It's not that I don't want them to run positive ads. Because I agree with you. I think people are still learning about her, right? Kind of. I think that's one of the reason why they like her favorability is going up right because she's been pleasantly surprised and you see this in the polls you see it in focus groups of sarah's focus groups you listen to those you see it at my life like we had people over for the game last night and people are like yeah she's really surprised me i liked her better than i thought i did and i had a misperception about you know? And so a lot of that has been her performance. You can supplement that with paid, right? By

telling people things about her that they don't know about her background, whether it's DA or prosecutor. And so I think that's good. And that gives her more room to grow for sure, but we just got to do it. Let's do it. Yeah. That's how the bio, I don't know what you found. It's just some personal interactions. I think it's a little bit in Sarah's focus groups too. It's both the DA prosecutor, but actually it's her middle-class origins, working at McDonald's, the family, the mom, and so forth. I actually think some of that, which was so successful at the convention, they shouldn't just assume they've done the job on that. They can continue that stuff for quite a while, I think.

The other thing she's got going for is Trump has really made a mess of the abortion situation. When we last taped on Friday with Margaret Hoover, at that time, Margaret and I were talking about this, and Trump had kind of implied he was going to vote for the Florida abortion measure because he doesn't like the six-week ban. And then a spokesperson had put out a statement saying that he did not say that, that he was just expressing his disapproval with the six-week limit in Florida. After we taped over the weekend, the next day, Trump then comes around and says, no, I'm not going to vote for this. I'm going to vote no on the Florida measure that would enshrine abortion rights. Both just the fact that he's going to vote no, like that just that's a nugget that people can say that he is going to vote against a bill. So if you're wondering what

would happen when it comes to his desk, he's going to vote against a bill that would enshrine abortion rights in the law in Florida. I think that hurts him with some of these potential voters. And then also just the flailing about, about it is demonstrating somebody that recognizes the weak position that he's in. Yeah, certainly. I mean, he never seems to pay a price much for the flailing about, especially if he ends up in sort of a reasonable place. And, but here on abortion, I just think they need to say, Trump is going to veto any attempt to protect reproductive rights that Congress passes, and then just describe all the Project 2025 stuff to him. So it's not just codifying Roe, but it's also IVF, and it's also contraception, and let's bring back to light Thomas's concurrence,

or whatever that was, and, you know, and Hobbes, and Griswold's called into question as well. I mean, without getting too much in the weeds, but they need to get a little bit specific on that. It was, I think the issue remains very strong. There's just a huge amount of data for that, on that for swing for Democrats and for swing voters. And Trump finally decided that he had to go along with the base on voting, voting against the constitutional amendment that would protect abortion rights in Florida, voting against that. And I think they just need to wrap that around his neck. I was kind of surprised that he felt the need to do that. I mean, to me, that shows that there

was actually some real pressure. It's always hard for me to tell, like, when, you know, a handful of prominent evangelicals express disappointment with Trump about something. Part of me is like, does he give a flip about them anymore? I mean, he already has got them wrapped around his finger, right? They've already made the deal with the devil. They're stuck with him now. But the fact that he felt pressured to say no makes me think that they thought that they had some real issues within the base on this.

Because it's not like it's fucking Trump. It's not like Trump hasn't not answered a question before. I mean, he still hasn't given his healthcare plan 10 years later. Like he could have just not told anybody how he's going to vote on that ballot measure. It's not just the base. I think it's probably,

don't you think maybe where the, the evangelicals who are, have been put off by Trump, but maybe a little more now after the last two, three years of just seeing just how bad it is in terms of his character and the messages and what Trumpism is. But the life issue is the one that they are with Trump on or with not Trump's true views,

but with what Trump's policies on, let's just say, and against Harris's policies. And you just got to get that issue back, not so much to kind of turn out that last true believing Trump is, but to turn out that evangelical who's turned off by Trump a bit, but who's still for her, maybe it's mostly her, for her, that pro-life issue remains very important. Ever wonder how much of your personal data is out there on the internet for anybody to see? More than you think. Your name, contact info, social security number, home address, even information about your family members, all that being compiled by data brokers and sold online. Sometimes it's getting sold to

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that's join delete me.com slash bulwark code bulwark another piece of evidence that trump is still flailing about a little bit and not doing anything to reshape this race back in his favor he still can't figure out how to attack kamala and it's it's really kind of enjoyable to watch him play we're on the fourth nickname yeah comrade kamala which i don't think is particularly inspired here's a new attack on he tried out on her with mark levin last night let's listen to that now they have kamala who they say has many deficiencies but she's a nasty person the way she treated mike pence was horrible the way she treats people is horrible well is way Kamala treated Mike Pence was horrible. I mean, like, what?

Where does that even come from? The debate, I guess, the one time they ever encountered each other in 2020. But it was just a normal debate, right? She didn't treat him horribly. Yeah, it was just a normal debate. Last I checked, I mean, she did not send an angry mob of people to hang him. I'm pretty sure. This is where we need the George Conway in the episode.

Like just this level of sociopathy that you have to be at, that it doesn't even cross his mind. Like treating Mike Pence poorly shouldn't be the example that he goes to. Because he just doesn't think about other people's feelings, right? Literally, I don't think that it probably doesn't even occur to him the fact that it was his responsibility that mike pence had to get his family and flee from a mob yeah what a person it was interesting to watch she's a nasty woman he's back to nasty woman it's just not landon just it's just he just doesn't have it with her right now i assume at the debate they will give him three or four or five reasonably effective lines against the policies that have failed or are perceived to have failed most in the Biden-Harris administration, Afghanistan, inflation, the border, and just hammer her.

I mean, it would be crazy not to, honestly. And then it becomes a question of how well she both defends herself, but also how much, how effectively she budges back. punches back for me that yeah i agree all this other stuff is just him indulging himself maybe a they can't persuade him what to say or b they think it doesn't matter what he says this week it's all it's all the debate anyway going into the debate i agree but it's just like the fact that they cannot i mean they've gone through all of like the paint by numbers political attacks you know she's a communist. She's extreme. She's a flip flopper.

You can't trust her. And then layered on top of the paint by numbers attacks, things that only Trump would do. Like she's not really black. She's DEI higher, right? But none of it is really working. Birkin. And in some ways, they counteract each other in a way that has limited their ability to effectively define her so far. If you look at it right now, I can think about what I think would be the most effective attack on Kamala Harris. But we don't really know because they haven't dialed in on anything. I mean, maybe the good news might be that their polling and focus groups

don't give them an obvious line of attack. They're all limited in certain ways or don't work with some subsets of voters. It's funny that Trump's so obsessed. Well, it's funny. It's the way he is, right? He thinks the personal attacks is what will win for him. I mean, I'm not going to say he's wrong. Maybe he's unfortunately and sadly right. I guess my view is, having been around politics for a while, thinking maybe that we're still in a normal political situation, is you have an administration that has a 40% approval rating. 65% of the country think we're on the wrong track. Just attack the most unpopular policies of a relatively unpopular administration, of which she's vice

president. This isn't very complicated. And normally, that would put the challenger in a pretty good place. But that's not the way Trump thinks. in a pretty good place but that's not the way trump thinks and to be fair maybe it's not the way politics works anymore i don't know the other thing that in theory you can come up with is the phoniness right like that she flip flopped on certain things and etc problem with that is we have jd vance delivering that attack and you've chosen jd vance i mean he's he's one of the most phony people that we've seen on the national stage there was one jd vance quote from over the weekend. The guy just did so many podcasts. I do have to say, I think that my future ambitions for vice president are pretty limited by the amount of podcasting I've been doing because I'm not an asshole like JD Vance. But still, when you're producing the level of

commentary that JD was apparently producing on podcasts. There's just a lot of material to work with. I say the opposite. It shows that you've got a bright political future. He's the vice presidential nominee for one of the two major parties at age 39. Just keep it up, Tim. You know? Okay, thanks, Bill. Here's one of his latest podcast moments that was resurfacing about the Afghanistan withdrawal. Apparently, Afghanistan is a country of translators and interpreters, because every single person that's coming in, that's what they say this person is, a translator and an interpreter. He was saying that as part of a rant about how we should not be bringing in any immigrants or any refugees, any people seeking asylum from Afghanistan, not including the people that risked their lives to help the American military

and help our country and help people like our friend Will Selber. It is astonishingly callous. And you lay it on top of the comments about not caring about Ukraine, about the childless cat ladies, about how miserable single women are, about how it creeps him out for there to be a single teacher. He just comes off as a monstrous douche. There's just no other way around it. Yeah, I agree.

And the Afghanistan stuff in particular, aren't we proud that we, I mean, the ending of the war in Vietnam was a sad moment, but we did take in half a million Vietnamese, and they've done very well in this country. And I think we think that was kind of the least we could do. And in Afghanistan, we had to pull out. I'm not going to relitigate all that. But taking in the people who actually worked for us, who were in danger and their families

are in danger. Some of them and their families have been killed by the Taliban and by the people running Afghanistan now. And the idea that we wouldn't take them in. And incidentally, I don't know exactly how they're doing. It's probably too early to do the socioeconomic studies. But my impression here in Northern Virginia, where there are a lot of Afghans who sought asylum and have been resettled here, is they're doing fine and they're working hard

and they're admirable people. But yeah, you're right. It's just so callous in a way that I don't think previous candidates, whatever their views on immigration policy were, they didn't sound like this. I'll put in the show notes, there's a beautiful story about our friend, our former colleague, Will Selber, and his translator that he helped get back here in USA Today. It was in the paper last week. And it's really, really lovely. And some Bullwark readers actually had been contributing to a GoFundMe to help get him home. So it's a nice contrast with how J.D. Vance looks at folks that were trying to help us and are just trying to come to the land of milk and honey. We do have to end on a sad note on the foreign

policy side of things. Since last podcast over the weekend, there was an Israeli military operation in Rafah, or I guess on the IDF, we're going into tunnels and Hamas, then before they could get there executed six hostages, including Hirsch Goldberg, Poland is an American whose parents spoke at both conventions, just a horrific story. And I don't really have big political thoughts on this. The thing that has frustrated me most about the Israel situation is like when a thing like this happens, like I see on the internet that, that you know the people that are the most fervent

in their backing of israel respond to it by saying see like kamala harris was wrong about this like we needed to do even more aggressive attacks to go in and and then people that are critical of bb there's plenty to be critical of bb or like see like this is this happened because we didn't get to a deal when we gave them too many weapons and i just i don't know that there's a clear answer here because we're dealing with people that just their levels of caring about humanity and caring about the hostages that they took it's just pretty much zero yeah the obviously what happened on october 7th was horrible the taking of hostages was a horrible part of that. And the killing of murder hostages subsequently is, I guess, also horrible.

So, I mean, what can one say? Yeah, the degree to which everyone takes, I wouldn't say they even take 10 seconds to say what you and I just said. They go right to the political attacks, right? I mean, it's like they don't even pause for, as I say, for a decent moment, a decent interval before going to that. I mean, look, Israel itself, there are massive demonstrations, including by people who are pretty conservative or pretty much on the right in Israeli political scene, criticizing Netanyahu for not prioritizing getting the hostages back. There are people defending Biden, I guess, said that this morning in just a very brief answer to a question. Weirdly, I'm very anti-Nesanyahu, but on this, I don't know what I think.

I mean, maybe, though, at the end of the day, Nesanyahu's right. You can't have an entire military operation hinge on not doing certain things you really think you have to do for the safety of the country because of a threat to kill hostages. So it's just, I mean, harsh as that is to say. So I really don't know. Yeah. Maybe a lesson everybody could take from it. The thing that got me a little emotional over the weekend was, I guess, Luke Bernard posted a picture of Hirsch Goldberg Pullen's bedroom. And he had in there a painting, I guess, that says Jerusalem is everyone's, and then has it in Hebrew and in Arabic. And it feels like that is

the model that everybody should be looking towards. Any other final thoughts, Bill? No, people should enjoy the rest of their non-laboring Labor Day, assuming they're not laboring. And I guess we're at nine weeks to go in this election. It's unbelievable. I cannot believe we're at Labor Day 2024. We'll be back tomorrow. We've got a double header.

We've got Mona Charon. Mona Charon wrote this amazing piece called What Are We Conserving? Exactly. I don't know if that was exactly the headline, but that was the sense of it. What are conservatives conserving? What are we conserving? It was wonderful. I want to talk to her about that. We've also got Senator Brian Schatz. It's going to be a good episode. Enjoy your Labor Day. I hope everyone had a wonderful weekend. I hope your Sunday night was a little bit better than mine was. It was fine. We had fellowship, Bill. I had friends. You're putting out a brave front here, Tim. I'm impressed. I was waiting for the text

this morning. Can't do the show this morning. I'm going to have to put it off for a few days here. It was brutal. Your stiff upper lip, as the British used to say. I can't spin it. It was a brutal loss, though. We hung people over. It was lovely. Everyone was having a good time. The bourbon was flowing.

We were chatting. And then, you know. Anyway. Sometimes it just doesn't go out the way you want it to. Bill Crystal. We'll see you back here next Monday. Everybody else, we'll see you tomorrow. Hope you had a wonderful weekend.

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