The Bulwark Podcast - Bill Kristol: Trump's Iran Disaster Is Also a Defeat for the U.S.

Episode Date: May 25, 2026

The master negotiator couldn't have been more clear how badly he wants out of his war, and now the Iranians are enjoying twisting the knife over a murky developing deal that will likely deliver sanctions relief and more. Trump keeps trying to shoehorn the Abraham Accords into the negotiations as a face-saving move, but there's no denying that the U.S. has made Iran a stronger power than it was before the war. Plus, Cuba looks to be in the crosshairs next, the Dems need someone at the DNC who can give donors confidence, and remembering those we've lost in service to this country. Bill Kristol joins Tim for a holiday pod.show notes Bill's "Bulwark on Sunday" with Marine veteran, Michael Wood Mark Hertling on how vets regard Memorial Day Will Selber on remembering the Gold Star families Take Cheers Restore after your last drink or before going to bed and wake up feeling at least 50% better — or your money back. For a limited time our listeners are getting 20% off their entire order at CheersHealth.com/THEBULWARK. #Cheers #ad

Welcome to the Bullwark podcast. I'm your host, Tim Miller. Happy Memorial Day. We've got an abbreviated edition of our usual Monday podcast for, you know, those of you on long road trips with your family and you want to disassociate and just hang out with us instead or people that just want to celebrate the holiday by paying attention to our insane news cycle. And since it's Monday, I'm here with Bill Crystal. How you doing, Bill? Fine. How are you, Tim? I'm doing well. I'm doing well, all things considered. Why don't we just get to it here? A lot of updates in the state of play with regards to Iran since we were last together on Friday. On Saturday, Trump announced that we're basically on the cusp of a deal. A deal is essentially done 95% there, a lot of Ballyhoo,

a lot of back patting among Trump himself. But his allies, the pro-war allies, were pretty horrified by the rumors coming out about the deal. And so since then, things have started to unwind a little bit. On Sunday, there's a massive spin effort to push that there would be dust for dollars. There'd be no dollars without nuclear dust. They were calling all their allies, being sure they knew that and that there'd be no toll on the strait. And this morning, Monday, Iran is saying that they aren't charging a toll on the strait, but they are charging an environmental protection fee, which shows that the Iranians have learned a lot from the liberal bureaucratic nomenclature of the West. So anyway, that's the state of play

where we're at now. Bill, what's your sense of things? Trump desperately wants a deal. The Iranians know that and are twisting the knife a little, but also, I think, as you can see, with the environmental fee thing, giving him enough cover so that Trump will end up with a deal. It'll be murky more even than these deals often are. And we'll see what really happens in terms of the nuclear material in terms of opening the straight. But I think we're heading towards, I mean, we've been heading towards the deal for a while. I think some of us have thought it was going to happen for a long, long time. Trump has basically announced he wants to deal. I mean, the degree to which he can bluster a little bit and put up memes of, I don't know, us bombing Iran

or decimating places or Iran with an American flag. But at the end of the day, he wants out. And I guess he'll get out. I think he will get out. It's interesting. I noticed you were posting about this over the weekend. We had a initial quite angry reaction from the Mark Levins of the world, Lindsay Graham, FDD, you know, the major backers of the Trump war effort who felt like this was basically a disaster and a betrayal. As the hours go on, you know, we're going through the same thing that happened after every Trump disaster, January 6th, et cetera, where they all start to, you know, look at the bright side, spin things for Trump.

What's your sense of that, like, you know, development? Is he going to be able to, you know, get people to circle the wagons like usual? Or is there something different about the Iran situation? I mean, if you were a serious Iran hawk, let's say, who was going along with this, not because you were loyal to Trump, but because you believed in certain things and certain outcomes were important, you're not getting any of those outcomes, really. You're not getting regime change in Iran or liberation for the Iranian people. Obviously, Trump gave up on that very early.

You're not getting a clear and unambiguous resolution of the nuclear issue, which Trump sort of defaulted to as his rationale for the war. And if you're more of a traditional international order type of internationalist, you're not getting, I don't think, clarity on passage through the strait. You're not getting any kind of emphatic reiteration of a right that these are international waters, so forth. You're getting Iran probably sort of, as you just said, no, no toll, but maybe it's environmental fees and plus reminding of one or at least Sotovoche that, you know,

they do have the ability to close the thing if they want to and it might be a good idea for some governments to negotiate with them to make sure their ships get through. So you're not getting any of the things you really care about, the nuclear issue, the straight or the fate of the Iranian regime. So if you're an honest, you know, hawk, you need to say this deal is a defeat for the U.S. Now, you might still say, as we've said, I think, that better in defeat that doesn't risk more than an escalation that risks U.S. lives and the destruction of the energy infrastructure in the Gulf and a million other things. But you've got to say it's the whole thing's been a defeat. And what strikes me is that, as you say, on what would it have been,

maybe Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning, some of the Trump supporting hawks were being honest hawks. I predicted that, and I think I've still predicted that by tomorrow, the Trump supporting hawks will 80% be Trump supporters and they'll abandon their actual principled objections to that abandoned, but we'll certainly mute their objections to this deal. And also will put a happy face on it, don't you think? Yeah. I just don't know that it's going to be quite as vociferous and quite as all in lockstep as it has been in the past for a couple of reasons.

Because you have, A, the opposite end of the Hawks, the America First crowd, that I think will probably want to crow that they were right about all of this. So you'll have some wing within the Trump coalition. that will not be trying to, you know, spin this shit sandwich into a chocolate cake. You know, I think that they're going to just say what they have said throughout the whole time. And then, you know, I think it'll be a little bit of a mix among the Hawks. You know, this goes back to kind of the big theme of last week where Trump, you know, wins his revenge tour in these primaries with Cassidy, Corny, and Massey,

but maybe loses the broader battle because he angers enough of the old school Republicans that they're not as excited to get in line. And you've seen this with Tillis over the weekend. He was on TV, really bashing Trump. So that kind of crowd, McConnell, Tillis, to the extent that I don't know how important they are really, but I do think there'll be some on the Hawk wing also that criticizes them. So, you know, Lindsey Graham is going to come around and say whatever Trump wants that he can still get invited into the golf cart.

You know, I wrote a book about that. So he'll come around. But I do think that there are some fractures that was caused by. this that were significant. And I think part of the continued version of that is, is the straight and the cost of gas. You know, prices are down today to about 90 bucks a barrel, which is on the high end of acceptable, I guess. But it could still go back up again. Who knows, you know, how long this goes, this period of negotiation that we're still in, getting that last so-called 5%. The New York Times is a big piece this morning, even if a deal is finalized, the pre-war status quo

and upward off 130 ships transit straight each day would be weeks or even months away. Like, there's a lot of logistical issues that still need to be ironed out. And gas prices are still really high. I think there's going to be persistent negative impacts from the second order effects that are going to create problems for a while. And I think that also, you know, makes it a little harder for him to just get everybody to get on board. You know, after January 6th, nobody, anybody who's living, their life in America. It wasn't really experiencing any negative impacts of January 6th. It was this

kind of attack on the democracy, this esoteric. People are still going to be feeling negative impacts here. So I do think that's different. No, I think that's an important point. And I also think this is going to be a real deal that's going to finalize things. And then we could all go back to normal, maybe with somewhat higher gas prices just because they still, you know, that's the after effect, as you say, of this trade haven't been closed all this time. It's going to be murky and they're going to be the Iranians are going to want to flex their muscles. So six weeks from now, After everything is settled down, the Iranians will deny passage to someone or, you know, find an excuse to do something to remind people that they have control. So I agree it doesn't go back to normal.

The prices don't go down to where they were because of the risk factor in the strait. The nuclear negotiations are totally, so far as one can tell, unsettled. Could be hiccups or more than hiccups there. Trump can't credibly, I don't think, threaten the use of force much, maybe a bombing or something. But he's not going to move troops back there after this thing gets sort of resolved. in the next few days, I think. So that leverage that he has had goes away. Israel, I guess, retains that leverage.

It doesn't go away, but is lessened. Israel retains that leverage. I'm very struck by one thing. Trump's trying to sell the deal or sweeten the deal by invoking, out of nowhere, honestly, the Abraham Accords, which are like entirely different thing, which, and suddenly it's like, you know what? This is kind of part of, he knows the Abraham Accords are vaguely popular here to the degree people know what they are.

and regarded vaguely a successful, though one could have a separate discussion about have they actually lessened war or tensions or instability in the Middle East, but anyway, they were okay and seemed like a success. So he's desperately trying. I'm going to get those other nations that aren't yet part of the Abraham Accords,

be part of those accords. We'll see. I mean, Saudi Arabia is not going to join the Abraham Accords without a resolution, more of resolution of the Palestinian issue. They've been totally clear about that. Egypt has its own peace treaty with Israel. They don't feel like they need to be told

to be part of some accord with a bunch of Gulf states. I mean, I'm pretty dubious than any of them. Pakistan, why is Pakistan? Which doesn't recognize Israel? Will Pakistan as a favorite of Trump, who's now their buddy and maybe just a favorite of China in turn, which could get favors from Trump, you know, recognize Israel conceivably or sort of join the, quote,

join, whatever that means even. It's not like the Abraham Accords are like, Dato, what are you joining? You know what I mean? They could they say they're well disposed to them and want to have talks about it? Sure. So there might be a little bit of cobbling of Trump here.

But it is striking. It's like someone told them, remember those Abraham Accords, that's kind of one of your achievements. And so suddenly it's, and then at the end, it didn't even one of those two social posts saying, you know what, it would be good if Iran joined the Abraham, of course. It's like you could only imagine the faces of the Gulf states in Israel at that point. I mean, on the Israel side of it, and it seems like this is attempted a pot sweetener for them for Trump.

Because what didn't mention was over the weekend reports were that, you know, Bibi and folks in Israel were unhappy with the contours of the deal. And so that's like a wildcard in this situation. Obviously, Israel has more acute security concerns than we do in this situation. And so maybe something might come up that would make Israel decide that they, you know, do want to attack Lebanon again or Iran again, for that matter, and like how that impacts the deal. And that's certainly possible in a wildcard. But the reporting on the Abraham call, I guess Trump was on a call with all of his new friends, Pakistan, Qatar, UAE, Saudi, and kind of made this pronouncement last night.

And one of the reports from an Israeli news source said that the ultimatum was met with literal silence. The Arab leaders were so stunned by the audacity of the request that Trump had to break the silence himself. So, you know, we'll see what happens with that. One thing I've been noticing as I get older is that I'll wake up after like a pretty casual night of drinking, maybe one or two glasses of wine and still feel not the best the next day. I feel like even if I do everything right, have enough to eat, drink water, get to bed, you know, just still not 100 the next day. Our friends at Cheers Health are here to help with their restore after alcohol aid.

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Just head to CheersHealth.com and use code The Bullwork for 20% off. After you purchase, they'll ask you where you heard about them. Please support our show and tell them we sent you. Just for kicks on the spin of all this, I saw this video going around this weekend. I want to share it because, you know, people that listen to this show, I mean, how often do we put on the hair shirt, Bill? And you and I are very, very happy to discuss our mistakes and bad predictions, you know, the policy of radical candor.

This gives you a little insight into what is happening inside the, you know, mega propaganda sphere. This is a guy with a relatively popular podcast. named Dave Rubin, and so I want to put together a highlight reel of his predictions and comments on the war over the course the last few months. And I think it tells us a little bit about the question of whether Trump will have people still spinning for him after this deal is done. Let's listen to Dave Rubin's take on the war. Everything that the media is now going to say about Iran's going to close the strait of Hormuz and energy prices are going to go crazy and all these, none of this is going to come to pass. Gas prices are coming down and will continue to come down. If the United States wants to keep,

the strait of Hormuz open, which it does. And Donald Trump said, we'll escort ships through if we have to. It's going to stay open. This is the leader of the Iranian opposition. He has been in exile. His name is Reza Pahlavi. We have shown you videos him before. He's the eldest son of the former Shah of Iran,

and he likely is the next leader of Iran. For decades, they will study how this incredible war took place that we are hitting critical infrastructure. We are damaging the regime, so hopefully the people, will be able to take over their country. There's a whole other minute of it, but I think you get the gist. I just miss after miss after miss.

And it is, it's kind of remarkable that people still tune back in, I guess, for a show like that. But he has nice suit jackets. I wonder what he'll say that I don't follow him, to be honest, but I wonder what he'll say this week. Do you think he, is he one who will say, oh, this didn't work out? Or is he one who will say, no. Okay, it's worked out. It's working out. I think you listen to all that.

Oh, yeah. They'll study it for generations. The deal that Trump did, the deal was. so beautiful. It was the best deal ever. You can just see what kind of impact you can have with only minimal loss of life. Think about how long the Vietnam War was compared to this. I think you'll get all that. My last thing on this, though, I just want to run through a couple other topics. And you mentioned this, but I just think it's worth just really sticking on it. If you look at the original goals set out by the administration, complete and total surrender was what Trump said

as, you know, what he was calling for with Iran. They wanted regime change. to get rid of the Khomeini family and the IRGC. As you mentioned, they wanted freedom for the Iranian people. They, after all of those obviously aren't going to happen. You know, the Rubio and Heggseth line really switched to, we want to, you know, limit or end their ability to project power in the region, you know, through their proxies, through their ballistic missile program, and, you know, we want to make sure that they cannot, you know,

attack allies in the region. All of those are off the table now. We're not even close to achieving any of those. The last thing that they now have felt fallen back on is this nuclear material. And that's like basically the only one of the original goals that they even could plausibly have a positive outcome on. And we'll see if that's even possible. And they seem to be getting ready to relax sanctions, give Iran back a lot of frozen assets, give them frozen assets, in a much greater quantity than Obama notoriously did in his deal.

And they're hoping to kind of reopen the straight, which was open and truly open without any tolls or any nonsense about other fees for decades before that, before we began this adventure. So, I mean, how can one say we haven't lost quite a substantial amount of ground? This is not even talking about the broader effects around the world, of our allies, lack of confidence in us and so forth. I mean, it's a pretty disastrous thing, honestly, for the U.S.

I say this without, obviously, that's bad. On the other hand, Trump deserves all the blame for it because guess what? This was not a war that was authorized by Congress. This is not a war that had bipartisan support. This is not a war that they made a case to the country about, and then it turns out the case wasn't quite what people hoped it would be. This is Trump's war. All right.

I want to run through a couple other headlines. I want to flag this story about the continued weaponization of the DOJ for one reason in particular. Federal investigators are serving subpoenas to left-wing streamer, on Piker and the Code Pink co-founder, Medea Benjamin, as part of a probe into their aid convoiced to Cuba earlier this year. They'd gone to Cuba to bring aid after we started the blockade. Piker says before his trip to Cuba, he cleared it with the Office of Foreign Assets Control. Piker and Benjamin say the travel came as an authorized category of providing aid to Cubans and they stayed in a hotel allowed under U.S. regulations. Interestingly,

there have been some MAGA influence. There's like Nick Shirley that went to Cuba and stayed in hotels that are sanctioned. But I bring this up because these guys, this stuff is not an accident. Like they do this on purpose. And it takes me back to the John Bolton thing, right? And one thing that we always were saying when they went after John Bolton was they pick enemies that they think that they can go after without blowback, right? And that's a Comey, too. You know, Jim Comey, not a lot of friends. John Bolton, not a lot of friends. Piker and Benjamin, you know, they have their, friends on kind of the anti-war left, but in the Democratic establishment, you know, you think they figure, these guys don't want to be tied to them and you're not going to see Chuck Schumer or whatever

going aggressively to their defense. And so I just think that's why it's important to talk about. They've been doing this mostly targeting, you know, foes and, you know, either never-Trumper types or, you know, going after people that had been in the administration and were, you know, the Miles Taylor's of the world, the Chris Krebs. turncoats, you know, or the people that were going directly at Trump on the various investigations. And like this is kind of a new category of people

but it's in the same vein of what they're trying to do. And it's totally unacceptable. My only footnote to that would be I was struck they're going up to people for going to Cuba. I mean, a lot of people have been going to Cuba for the last months and years, including on to Trump. I believe his own CIA director was there talking to the Cubans was a week ago or something like that.

I mean, they're all trying to work out, I suppose, some kind of quasi-regime change a la Venezuela and Cuba. In any case, this is part, don't you think of the ratcheting up of this support here at home for, we need to do something about Cuba? I mean, Rubio said several times the last two weeks, Cuba is a national security threat to the U.S. It's like, really? Well, there have been a lot of national security council meetings in the last two years, the last 10 years, about the Cuban threat. Maybe I missed that somewhere, you know. Once he accepts whatever crummy deal he's going to accept on Iran. I do think Cuba's right in the crosshairs.

Maybe this is a little bit of groundwork laying for that. Absolutely. Yeah, no, I think this is a two-prong thing. One, it's, again, they're trying to go after people that they, you know, think that it's politically beneficial to go after using the Justice Department, which is just their M.O., the total weaponization of the Justice Department, to go after foes. And in this case, also, yeah, yeah, that predicate and continuing the drumbeat on Cuba, which feels inevitable.

And I think that the end of this Iran thing, if you just think about it from a psychological perspective, like they're going to feel like they need a cleaner win and they're going to try to move into Cuba. That feels inevitable to me. I do want to mention the continued Trump health issues that we're just not getting a lot of information about. He is tomorrow,

expected to undergo his third scheduled medical checkup in 13 months at Walter Reed. They say it's a scheduled follow-up to the last time he was there where he received the CT scan, but they won't tell us what it was for, and they didn't tell us he got a CT scan. It kind of leaked out afterwards. In addition to the three trips to Walter Reed, he's also had the two dental visits in Florida that he said to do,

five visits. That's a lot in 13 months. I don't know, Bill. How many times have you been to the doctor the last 13 months? Go more often, but I think, yeah, maybe less than five. Yeah, less than five. And also, I don't have a medical office in my basement here in McLean, which is quite well equipped and very capable doctors,

and people will come to the White House to attend to you, too from Walter Reed. So it is pretty striking. You know, the bruises on the neck, the hands. He isn't looking good. It's meaningful in part because of the concerns, like, about given what is happening with Iran and like the highest stakes, they're trying to overcompensate with like Stephen Chung. Your friend Stephen Chung's in the lighthouse going, Trump worked today from eight until nine. And it's like, well, yeah, I mean, we're trying to end a war that we started with Iran. Like, that's kind of what you got to do is work if you're going to try to do that. And so, So like the high states of that with his diminishment is noticeable, I guess, and concerning and alarming.

And psychologically, this is an A.B. Stodd discussed this maybe about a month ago, and she's very shrewd about this. Does it make him more extreme and more risk taker to the degree there's a little bit of a mortality sense or a little bit of a sense? Let's just say that maybe he's not well enough to run again in two years. I do think if that, if they're running again in two years is there in a big way, it probably makes them a little more politically. sensitive to public opinion, however many votes they can steal and intimidate all that. If it's really kind of a all in, this is the moment, whatever, I think it's a little dangerous given his psyche. I don't know who knows about his psyche, but... Same. I did too.

Lauren Egan last night, our colleague wrote about a list, I guess, that is circulating among Democratic operatives for replacing Ken Martin, among the names on there. My guy, Beto O'Rourke, former heads of like the SEI. you and Emily's list, Ben Wickler, who is the Wisconsin chair, who ran against Ken Martin and lost narrowly. And I said he wants nothing to do with this disaster. So I think that's more of a wishcasting list. Does this matter to you? Like, what do you think the state of play is with Ken Martin?

He did bungle that autopsy thing pretty badly. And then having bungled it bungled it, bungled it some war. I didn't even follow it very closely. But it was so ludicrous. He released it, but they released it hurriedly with all kinds of errors. And it wasn't really, he didn't want to release it, so it wasn't an official release. It was like going to, I mean, just as a basic, I mean, the one thing to DNC for all there, maybe not mattering ultimately about how many CCHUN, they presumably have communications professionals there

who know how to release a report in a timely manner and go through it for typos. I don't know, I guess not. Yeah, I don't know. I don't know. The money thing, I think, is to me, I look at all this and it's like, that's the one thing that does matter, which is, you know, the Republicans are raising a bunch more money, particularly at the National Committee level. You can understand why people wouldn't want to give money to the DNC right now.

Some of that is unfair. Some of that is their fault. But the kind of finger pointing on all that ultimately doesn't matter. The reality is, like, Democrats need the resources to compete. You know, the House and Senate have their own fundraising committees. So this matters more in state races and down-ballot and also but just broader efforts that lift all boats, registration, et cetera.

To me, it doesn't really even have anything to do. with Ken Martin personally. I've never met Ken Martin. I don't know. Who knows? Maybe this has been unfair. The way he's been treated, I don't know. But it's like, at this point,

you just need somebody in there that can bring confidence back so that the committee can raise the money they need. And I would just like, why not just hire somebody in the vein of Betta or whoever that can go on to TV, you know, be competent that the donors will return their calls? And to me, that is like the prudential, move. All right, anything else in politics before you get to some Memorial Day reflections?

Anything else catching your eye in the Senate or House races? That's there been anything dramatic? I guess tomorrow is the Texas primary and we'll see Paxton defeat Cornyn, presumably. What a fantastic thing it would be after all the drama and everyone conceding if the voters of Texas, Republican voters of Texas, I don't expect this to happen but still decide, well, what the hell, you know, we'll just stick with Cornyn. It would be something. I kind of want to see Cornett humiliated. The one I guess thing real worthy that was on my mind was they started going hard at Tala Rico.

Trump did from the plane from Air Force One, some ad money already going up there to go after Tala Rico. And so I don't know. I think that's pretty telling to me about their level of concern. And I think maybe their hope is, well, A, a concern about Paxton as well. But maybe the betas they go and put a bunch of money in trying to paint Tala.

go as whatever and out of touch lefty and they can not have to spend as much in Texas in the edge, right, that they can fortify the race. Maybe that's their thinking. But if you go back in time a year and we said, hey, May 25th, Republicans are putting in a bunch of money to go after the Democrat nominee in Texas in the Senate. That would not be a great sign for their midterm chances. Yeah, it shows you how much things have changed a year earlier in six. If you even go back four or five months, people would not have believed this possible. right? So that's, that is striking. Even when I interviewed Talricko, whenever that was, what was that March, two months, three months ago? He was talented, but I was always

caveating it when people asked me about it. I was like, I think it's a long shot. You know, I think it's a bit of a stretch. You know, Alaska seems a little more likely. And I do think the dynamics changed pretty significantly. We had in the bulwark, Mark Hurtling, and our former colleague Will Selber, you know, writing some Memorial Day reflections. You talked to Michael Wood, friend of the show, former candidate from Congress and veteran in Texas yesterday in your Sunday conversation. I'm just hoping between all of that and your life, you can leave us with some Memorial Day wisdom.

My wisdom is that people should read Mark Hurtling's piece and Will's Albert's piece from a couple of years ago that we put back up on the site and then listen to Michael Wood, who served in Afghanistan 2010, 2012, Purple Hearts. And the veterans have a different understanding and appreciation if I can say a memorial day than maybe the rest of us or certainly than I think I do and a deeper understanding of kind of what it means and also that it's not for them just one day as will Michael would make this point to me you know it's not and Mark currently makes this point very quickly every day he has on his desk a box with photos of the 230 maybe people who served under his command who were

killed in Iraq and he looks at them opens the box and reflects them on their sacrifice so for us Honestly, it's more of a, perhaps a one day, not one day a year, hopefully, but Memorial Day is sort of special, and it should be special. But for people who served, it's a more constant thing. I always thought it's a very moving holiday and a very appropriate holiday. And the way which we celebrated, I've always thought, is very American in the good sense. I mean, a ceremony in Arlington, pre-Trump, at least a president giving, you know, appropriate memorial remarks, many, many Memorial Day parades and gatherings all around the country. without much grandeur, but with a lot of sincerity. And people putting flags and cemeteries all around the country,

sort of the opposite, honestly, of Trump's horrible arch. Yeah. All right. Well, shout out much love and appreciation to all the veterans listening and the families of veterans and folks who had loved ones who we lost overseas. Thinking about you today, I am about to end this podcast and head on back to New Orleans.

so we can get back to regular business tomorrow. So enjoy the holiday. Bill Crystal, thanks for joining me this morning. And everybody else, we'll see you back here tomorrow. Peace. The Borg podcast is brought to you thanks to the work of lead producer Katie Cooper, Associate producer Anzley Skipper, and with video editing by Katie Lutz,

and audio engineering and editing by Jason Brown.