The Bulwark Podcast - Casey Newton: Lawlessness and Danger in Tech's Brave New World

Episode Date: October 8, 2025

Trump's TikTok deal looks like classic crony capitalism as well as open theft. But China has bigger fish to fry with trade than its TikTok algorithm—which led Congress last year to ban the app in the U.S. Meanwhile, Silicon Valley thinks they're building a machine god with AI, but we really may be heading into catastrophe. Plus, the armed invasion of Chicago, Sam Altman seems disconnected from reality, and Tim Cook's pathetic bending over for backwards for Trump. Casey Newton joins Tim Miller. show notes Casey's Platformer newsletter Casey's "Hard Fork" podcast JVL's emergency 'Triad' on Chicago Tim's 'Bulwark Take' on DHS using Zach Bryan's music in a propaganda video Tucker's interview with Sam Altman Go to https://www.american-giant.com and get 20% off your first order with promo code BULWARK. Thanks to American Giant for sponsoring the show!

Hey, everybody. Before we get to the guests, I want to talk a little bit about what is happening in Chicago. I am traveling to D.C. today for our live show, which we've sold more tickets to than any show we've ever done. So I appreciate you all. Last I heard, there are like 50 left. So by the time you're hearing this, maybe there are a couple. If you have a hankering here in the D.C. area, you want to make a last second trip down to the Lincoln Theater. We'd love to see you tonight. And so I pre-taped the podcast yesterday on Tuesday with Casey Newton. And it's a show I've been wanting to do for a while, really focusing on this TikTok deal, which I think is really ominous and the latest around AI and interviews have been watching with Sam Altman and the

infiltration of Silicon Valley oligarchs into the Trump administration, as I wanted to focus entirely on that topic for one episode, and Casey is a great person to do it with. So definitely stick around for that. But, you know, the news gods obviously had something else in mind, and I wanted to ensure that we addressed it. Trump and Greg Abbott sending Texas National Guard troops into Chicago is truly an emergency, and it's truly a crisis, and it is outrageous. And every American should be horrified by what is happening, that our entire system of government, our Democratic Republic, our federalist Democratic Republic is in threat right now, right now, because for the first time since the civil rights era, the President of the United States is sending in troops over the objection of a local state. And the big difference between now in the civil rights era is that the president is doing that based upon their desire for power only.

There is no crisis. There's nobody standing in the schoolhouse door. You know, there's regular law and order business needs to be taken care of. You could imagine the president of the United States deciding that Chicago and other major cities had too much crime and that we should fund more cops and those on the streets and there are things that could be done. But that's not what's happening. what is happening is there is an army there are soldiers from another state invading Illinois over the objections of local Illinois leaders and they are coming into their state against the will of those politicians against the will of the people of Illinois that is an affront door system of government it's dangerous and it is not overstated to call it an emergency. And that's why my colleague Jonathan last wrote an emergency triad last night newsletter

that I just want to direct you guys to. We'll put a link here in the show notes. It's called the Chicago Rubicon and what comes next. And I have to admit, I've been following the stuff as closely as I can, y'all. And I'm doing my best to bring all the relevant news to you guys. And I feel like I kind of let you down a little bit on this one because I was reading JVL's triad. And he's just so good every day, every day, if you're not reading to try it. It's the best newsletter in the business.

And that's not just me guessing up a colleague. It's what he does. It's truly remarkable every day. The newsletter goes into like a series of things that had happened in Chicago over the last month. And I was aware of some of it. I just like hadn't put it all together in the way he did. And when you see it, it's pretty alarming. September 12th, ICE agents shoot and kill Chicago resident,

Silvio Villegas Gonzalez in Franklin Park Ice claim that Gonzalez was shot after he quote seriously injured in ice agents but body cam footage shows the same agent immediately after the encounter describing his injuries as nothing major. So again

I mean you shouldn't assault an ice agent but that doesn't mean you get to be summarily murdered. September 30th 300 federal agents raid an apartment building we have talked about this but again like some of the details agents repel from a Black Hawk helicopter positioned over the building.

They detained not only the children and the zip-tied children, as we discussed, but several U.S. citizens get detained, including Roderick Johnson. They said he heard people dropping off the roof before the FBI agents kicked in his door. He was stuffed inside a van. They didn't tell me why I was being detained. They left people's doors open, firearms money, whatever, right there out in the open. October 4th, CBB agents shoot an unarmed woman. Mary Mara Martinez

The body cam footage There shows an agent Says do something bitch Before shooting her October 7th An agent's caught on camera aiming a weapon At a resident who is probably doing nothing more than documenting the activity

Like this is a masked agent JVIL includes a picture here And the story it is It is alarming There was The physical bullying of the people protesting outside of the ice building, including former FY pod guest and candidate for Congress, Kat Abu Ghazale. It just goes on. I don't know how else to describe this, right? You have federal

agents shooting and menacing people in a city and you have troops from another state invading the city over the objections of the political leaders and the people there. That's a crisis. This is an invasion that is happening and so you know and you don't want to do too much hyperbole it's not a civil war yet or anything it's not it's not a hot war but it also feels like it's just the beginning i mean i mean you know we're in this government shutdown right now but these guys have more more more more funding coming their way and you know more and more and more untrained federal agents mass federal agents are going to be in these cities so this is something obviously we're going to keep monitoring we'll be talking about it

the live show this evening we will be talking about on tomorrow's pod but I wanted to at least address that and point you to JVL's newsletter

which in addition to kind of listing out and putting into context all those actions gives a really sharp and alarming obviously as is JVL style overview

of where this is headed and of what the broader context is. One more thing that's related all this I did another commentary for the Borg Takes feed that you can check out if you go over and download the Borg Takes podcast. It says Tim Miller, people will be ashamed for being involved in this.

And I wanted to expand on my comments on Nicole Wallace's show on Tuesday. We spent the whole hour talking about what was happening in Chicago and the response to it, including the response to ICE from Zach Bryan, the country music center. And so if you go over in that feed, you can hear everything I talked about with Nicole, in addition to kind of my expanded thoughts. And I just, I really wanted to dial in on this how important it is to have people like Zach Bryan out there singing and speaking out against what is happening with ICE and how fucking disgusting and depraved it is that the DHS has decided, our DHS, our Department

of Homeland Security has put out this fucking adjut prop where, They show videos of people being chained and deported and bullied and forced to submit to the unnamed, faceless state, the jackbooted thugs. And they do so. They do this video and they pair it with Zach Bryan's, one of Zach Bryant's songs, was a troll back on him. and it's so sick how they do it and how they try to co-opt his message of hope and redemption and use that to advance their message of vengeance and submission and cruelty and hatred. And anyway, it moved me quite a bit. So if I'm a little bit more on that, I talked about that for quite a while.

So I've gone on too long now. We've got a great podcast ahead. It's just it's a pretty wearing and depressing state of, Affairs in Chicago, and I think that hopefully it can also be a galvanizing moment for all of us to say, no, this is not us, okay? We are not going to sit quietly while these fuckers try to put the boots on the necks of our fellow Americans, and hopefully it can be a galvanizing moment. Up next, as some other super-uplifting material, me being an AI Dumer with Casey Newton of platformer, stick around for that.

Enjoy it. We'll talk to you all soon. We'll see some of you tonight in D.C. The rest of you'll see you tomorrow. The greatest hoodie ever made is made of the highest quality materials that are cut and sewn right here in the USA. So you're investing right back into your local supply chain. And that hoodie comes from American Giant. I have been turned to American Giant since last year for my fall and winter staples. When we're on our bus tour, where do we hit? Pittsburgh, Detroit. Yeah, it's somewhere else, didn't we? Was it just Pittsburgh in Detroit? I don't know. Time's a flat circle. It's hard to get all blends together. Philly.

We're in Philly. I think my whole wardrobe for that trip was American Giant. Long-sleeve T's, some shackets. It was looking good. My husband's been an American Giant man long before that. He's been an advocate for the greatest hood he ever made, even before they're sponsoring this very program, and he endorses that claim. It is the greatest study he's ever worn.

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It's Casey Newton. What's up, man? Hey, Tim. Glad to be here. Thanks for having me. Thank you for doing this. I've been wanting to do it for a while. There are two main issues I really want to focus on,

which is the TikTok deal and whether society is going to continue to exist. Yep. Maybe we'll do the TikTok deal first because it's a little bit easier to get our hands around and then we'll go into AI and all the ancillary issues, cultural and political related to that. You wrote this, and the deal was not quite finalized when you wrote this. So maybe we've learned a little more since then. But for Platform, which is a great newsletter for folks who are trying to get their tech news,

you know, outside the corporate media, you wrote this. What we do know about the deal currently taking shape with TikTok is that it is very strange. The deal is very different from many previous cases where the U.S. government has forced a Chinese company to divest,

such as when they did so with Grindr in 2020, something you're very familiar with. There are a lot of ways in which it's very strange, which you laid out, but I'm wondering if it looks as strange now here, October 7th, as it did September 22nd, too. Oh, sure.

I mean, we've just never seen anything like this, right? You have to remember that Congress passes a law in the Biden administration that says, hey, you know, you got to get rid of this thing and we're sort of in the window for it to be forced to either shut down in the United States or be spun out. And it actually goes dark, right, for like a day. And then Trump becomes the president. And on his first day, he says, I'm going to ignore this law that was passed by Congress and uphold by the Supreme Court.

And I'm just going to issue a series of extra constitutional delays until I get what I want. And it was, in my view, sort of like the first sign that this presidency was going to look very different than his first one. extremely lawless. Among the other things that are different, we can kind of go through that are that are strange. The main one, the one that was like, I was like, I have to get Casey or somebody on to talk about this is just the actual details of the deal itself. So as you wrote in the newsletter, it's a giveaway to allies. Larry Ellison, I want to talk more about Andreessen Horowitz. I'm going to talk a little bit more about Mark Andreessen. The Murdox are involved.

Apparently, the valuation of TikTok ended up being $14 billion in that article you wrote the valuation of ByteDance, the Chinese parent company, is $400 billion. And so it sure seems like Larry Ellison and Mark Andreson and Lackland Murdoch and whoever else is in on this deal got like the deal of the century here. Absolutely. And we should say that detail has still not been confirmed. We're sort of still waiting for the final details of the deal to be released. But certainly if the sale were to happen at that price, it would be an absolutely ridiculous discount. Now you can imagine Trump on the other end saying, well, look, if you don't take this deal, I'm just making the app shut down. And then everyone loses all of their money. So, you know, Trump here is able to use his authoritarian impulses to get everything he wants and no one else really has that much leverage over him.

That's a fake bluff, though. Did Mark and was Indecent Horowitz and Larry Allison really worried about that with all the back channels they've got with Donald Trump? Well, I think what I'm saying is, I think that it was bite dance that could be made to worry. And Trump is sort of saying, look, I want it. I want this for these. people and you're going to give it to them at like a really great price yeah i mean the really great price almost let's just explain to people how a bunch of a really great price it is and that's about what the evaluation of snapchat is right like equivalent essentially and if bike dance is worth 400 billion and in theory and again we don't know at all the rules the deal making are going to be etc but like in theory in recent horwitz whatever percentage that 14 billion they get they could resell a percentage of that in a year at like

500 percent 600 percent i mean like it's it's an unimaginable it's theft i mean it's just i mean it's it's just cold theft out in the open absolutely i mean i really have very little to add beyond it because it really is just exactly what it looks like you uh you wrote in the in the piece what do we think china is getting out of us yeah and i that question still kind of remains unclear right have we learned anything in the last three weeks about what we think china's why The speculation that I hear is that China basically just feels like it has bigger fish to fry, that it wants a comprehensive trade deal, and that ultimately, believe it or not, it doesn't care that much about a social media app where people do funny little dances,

which is sort of counterintuitive for some Americans, because, of course, in America, what we've been told by Congress, is that TikTok is a Chinese super weapon, and sort of their most important strategic asset to undermine the United States. And so how could they ever give it away? I think it turns out that China is probably more concerned about maintaining some sort of trade balance and not having massive tariffs on their goods. What is that? Do we know what the actual algorithm deal is at this point, like control of the algorithm?

And maybe that might inform China's lack of concern somewhat? Yes. So the idea is that the recommendation algorithm is essentially going to be kind of cloned and then given to the U.S.-based entity, Oracle is going to kind of drive the technical implementation of this. And then we believe that they're essentially going to kind of like start from scratch using Americans' data. Maybe they have some American data that they can already use in this regard, but we'll sort of create a new, super patriotic USA, USA TikTok recommendation algorithm without any corrupting Chinese influence. But importantly, the new

entity will lease that algorithm from ByteDance. So ByteDance will get ongoing payments. What's not clear to me is, are they going to sort of give it regular updates as they find ever more sinister ways to capture all of our time and attention? That part, I don't know. Yeah. I mean, this is the thing that is a little unsatisfying about all of that, about like the Chinese not feeling like it's a, it's a weapon that is useful to them.

Because we have the Prime Minister of Israel. I'm sure you saw this, Bibi Nut and Yahoo the other week. I want to play this clip. I kind of this is like one of those I can't believe you said it out loud things like I was like I had to double check I was like this is not an this is not a deep we'll get into AI deep fakes it's like this is not a deep fake right like an anti-Semitic deep fake trying to claim that the Jews are behind everything but no this is the actual prime minister of Israel and I would like to play it you can't fight today with swords that doesn't work very long but we have to fight with the weapons that apply to the battlefields in which we're engaged and the most important ones are the side social media. And the most important purchase that is going on right now is class followers. TikTok. TikTok, number one, number one. And I hope it goes through because it can be consequential. TikTok is going to be the most important weapon. He wants the deal to go through. And he seems to

think that if the deal goes through, the people in charge of the algorithm will be favorable to him. I mean, I don't know how else to interpret that, right? Well, it's important to remember that when Congress passed the law that forced the spin out, a lot of members of Congress were concerned that there was too much pro-Palestinian speech on the app. That was one reason that they gave while debating the bill, which was also something that made the First Amendment scholar say, hey, wait a minute, are we like publishing a speech-based restriction? But anyway, that turned out not to matter. Mitt Romney said that, I remember, actually, just out loud. Like, it was one of the thing, it was one of his stated reasons.

But there, you know, there is a sense. And, you know, I mean, I do believe that social media helps to shape perception. And I'm sure there has been a lot of pro-Palestine content on TikTok. The idea that it's the most important weapon in a war seems strange to me. I mean, it seems strange to me, too, but Benjamin Nadejov thinks it is. Yeah. I mean, that is where, like, all of the mystery part of the deal just, and I hate, I'm like the always sunny in Philadelphia. guy right now with my, you know, my string and the pictures. But it's like, so these billionaires

that are really close to Donald Trump get the deal of a lifetime with the TikTok algorithm. Bibi Netanyahu and Israel is extremely excited about that. Trump's donors are extremely excited about it. They see it as a political, a useful political weapon. And it seems to me they intend to use it as such. Maybe they'll be bad at it, right? Like, maybe they won't successfully manipulate the algorithm and it's not as easy as it seems and what i like you know the world is complicated but like they think that they are going to use this to manipulate the country yeah and i mean i think you can slot it in to the broader right wing takeover of big media right like i think you can draw a through line here from what's going on with you know jimmy kimmel and cbs news and everything else the

idea is let's put trump allies in charge of all of the big institution ticot is a a big institution. Now, as it so happens, I think it's much easier to manipulate like a broadcast network newsroom where you have to like answer to Brendan Carr when he, you know, emails you 10 times a day than it is to change a social media algorithm such that one piece of content gets higher reach than another. But it's not impossible and we should absolutely keep an eye on it. Yeah. It's kind of interesting. I was like, what do you make? Have you even covering Larry Ellison? Like the Larry Ellison thing is so strange because Oracle was obviously an influential company. They made a ton of money and influential tech. It's kind of like an old tech

company, right? And like, as you and I have been coming up and you've been covering the stuff, it's not like, or you've been on the Oracle beat, really. There's not been a lot of like Oracle news. And Larry Ellison seemed happy to like sail and be an America's Cup. And all of a sudden, he's like taking over a broadcast network, taking over the most important, like what social media app? Like, what do you think is happening there? It's so true. The last time that I was covering Larry Ellison, it was when he cheated to win the America's race and that sort of like cemented a certain vision of him in my mind of like you know but he is kind of I don't remember that story how did he cheat um oh there there's a whole book about it you know

I can't remember the exact ways but it's kind of like cheating in baseball you know you like you sand down various edges or something and people are always like cheating at these races and it's like sort of how the billionaires entertain themselves but you know he was like this Lance Armstrong of sailing yeah he was juicing yeah he was he was boating okay but you know all along he has had Oracle, which as you point out, is this like extremely boring company. It's like made him enough money that he was able to buy up like huge parts of Hawaii just to sort of chill at. But then the AI boom comes along. And all of a sudden, there's so much value that is inside this what turns out to be AI infrastructure, right? And so he now has tens and hundreds of millions

of dollars at his disposal. And he also happens to be a Trump donor. And so this just puts him in a position of great power. So this is just he's got liquid, basically. Yes. He is a, he is a extremely liquid, although as we pointed out, he's not going to need to be that liquid to buy TikTok. It feels like they obviously have an ideological agenda. Like what exactly that is? You know what I mean? Like, I genuinely don't know. This is one of those things where I kind of feel myself sounded like Tucker Carlson. Just asking questions. I'm not doing that. I don't know. Is it a pro-Israel agenda? Is it pro-AI regulation that they're worried about? Is it just I want to keep the woke libs out of power? Is it something else? Do you have any sense for that? Well, we know that the TikTok has

gotten Trump's attention a couple of times. One was during the 2020 election when there was something involving reports of a rally of his being poorly attended that seemed to make him really, really mad. And I believe there was some speculation at the time. Maybe this is one reason why he wants to yank this app out of China's hands. Then when he wins the 2024 election, he sees TikTok as something that was very useful to him. And so I think this makes him interested in like, okay, like, How can I sort of, you know, press my advantage there and ensure that it continues to be, you know, really helpful to me in that regard? Yeah, but for Allison, you think it's just, that's just it?

It's Trumpy partisan stuff? Well, you know. Old man, relevant stuff? My sense is that late in life, Ellison has seen an opportunity for himself to become a kind of other Murdoch, right? With his son, David Ellison has taken over Paramount Warner Brothers, right? Like, vast swaths of the U.S. media and entertainment infrastructure are, like, consolidating within the Ellison family, and I assume that they're doing it for the reasons that everyone

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slash bulwark. Again, that's ZipRecruiter.com slash bulwark. ZipRecruiter, the smartest way to hire. Any Andresen thoughts? Deep thoughts. This kind of takes us into the AI topic because obviously he has strong views on AI deregulation and crypto deregulation. But Andreson also has been on kind of a long strange trip. And he went from being kind of like a Mitt Romney-ish, very kind of a bulwurkey type, like center ripe and voted for them sometimes, Mitt Romney donor, you know, free markets and free people type guy to all the sudden, like, I mean, he seems to, I don't know, maybe even wants an authoritarian dictatorship.

I'm not sure. I'm not sure. It's hard. Like, what do you think? What's happening with that? Yeah. I mean, this is like one of my favorite subjects could talk about it for a long time. I think there are several things. You know, one is that, and he has said, like, he just didn't get what he wanted out of Democrats. Like, he wanted this to be a transactional relationship where he would make donations. They would do what he wanted and that he would say thank you and they would move on. But that's not what happened. Even though they continue to donate to Democrats throughout the Biden presidency, Biden continued to hate big tech. In particular, he hated crypto, where Andresen had made billions and billion. billions of dollars worth of investments. I mean, Joe Biden didn't know a crypto was. His administration,

his administration had a couple of people. And don't tell him. He's been through enough. He's been through enough. Gensler hated crypto. There's one person that hated crypto in the administration, basically. But it had a huge effect, right? Which is that all of these crypto startups can't get off the ground. So now, you know, Mark is on the hook for billions of dollars. And he, like, did a podcast with Ben Horowitz's partner where he said that, you know, basically their feeling was like Biden has suspended the rule of law when it comes to crypto. And so in order to, like, defend American value is like we have to elect this Republican. So that, I think that is like kind of the bulk of it. I also think he emerged like very different from the pandemic. Like he seemed

quite unhinged after the pandemic. I think that also radicalized him. But yeah, those are some of the factors. Do we know what he wants now? I guess it's just kind of important question what these people want now. And Larry Ellison, Mark Andrews and Murdox. And I think the Murdox ration, the Murdox, it's a little bit more straight and clear because we have 30 years of evidence about what the Murdox are interested in. But if these guys are going to control TikTok, I don't know. What do we think Andreessen and Horowitz? Maybe it's just money for them. Like, honestly, it's just a good deal. I don't know. I think crony capitalism is very appealing to them. These are rich people who are used to just paying for what they want. And if Donald Trump says pay this price and you can get this

thing, that's the kind of person they want to deal with. So I take this actual policy. And one thing it seems like they want policy-wise is essentially complete deregulation of crypto and AI. I don't know if you would agree with that. But AI is, I want to talk about AI more broadly. But what, like from just a regulatory policy structure, they basically just want to let the animal spirits of the, of the free market become unleashed. And they want the government off their back. Maybe they want to fund some energy, you know, resources for them that they can use, right? Yeah. Yeah. Andresen has written this essay where he writes about what he calls the enemy of progress. And it includes basically anyone who has ever advocated for like content moderation,

trust and safety, just being careful in general. He views all of this as a sort of like namby, pamby, like bedwetter way to run the government. And what we actually need to do is to build, build, build and let the chips fall where they make. I have a question to those guys. Like, do you think, like, if you had a panel of them, you talked to all of them more than me, if you had a panel of them and you were just like, okay, here we are in 2025. Like, do you think we did a good job with social media regulation? What do you think they would say?

Do you think they would say the government was too involved? not involved enough? I mean, the thing is there has not been that much social media regulation. Right. Like there was some jawboning, which made some conservatives really, really upset. And in some cases, for justified reasons. But it wasn't as if there was this, you know, huge, like, sweeping set of regulations that all the social media companies now have to pay attention to. And I think that thrilled, for example, Mark Andreessen, who sits on the board of meta and which, you know, profited handsibly from the fact that there was no real regulation. And social media has been, I guess this is my point. I think it seems, I feel like these are

objective sentences. Their opinions, but they're objective. Social media has been completely inshittified over the last 20 years. It did not achieve the stated goals that the founders of these companies said. I issue some of them, but it did not achieve the cultural goals that they set out. There was no meaningful regulation of them. And so maybe we should look back at that and do things differently next time. But that doesn't seem to be a, well, they don't, I guess they don't think that or do they I don't know are they happy as Mark? Are they happy with the

meta product sweets right now? They think they're killing it with the Facebook feed right now? I don't know I mean I don't see Mark Andreessen posting a lot on Facebook or Instagram. Maybe that's just sort of not his media and he's like more of a YouTube guy I guess

but you know I don't know how happy they are I mean to me it seems very clear that the right in particular has been massively from social media because it took a lot of what used to be fringe views and just allowed them to accelerate into the mainstream and to make some of the people who held those extreme views some of the biggest stars of the party and sort of, you know, reorient everything around them. So to that extent, it's been a huge success, but of course they spent the entire

time complaining that they're being censored and, you know, no one has been giving them a fair shake. So that's a fresh eye. I think that it's important to update your priors, you know, when you see things that happen. And so I kind of like asked this same question to all the tech people that come on because it's like it just seems so obviously me i was very tech optimist like i was southwest tech nerd moved to the bay like it was not like you and part of being a product junkie but like i like to get my new toys and trying them out and was an early adopter of all the social medias and like i just think that objectively like we fucked it up yeah and now i i look to this ai situation where all these new products are coming i listened to the same altman interviews

And I just, I feel like a person taking crazy pills. I'm just like, we've learned nothing. Like, we've learned, like, we've fucked all these apps up and we're starting this new thing. And, and people are like, let's just do the same, let's just do the same thing again, basically, but with even more powerful tools. Is that, is that wrong to you? I share that concern. I suspect these things will play out somewhat differently. In my view, the trouble with social media is that recommendation on Agarra tend to push people toward the most divisive or sort of like borderline, inoffensive or,

wrong stuff imaginable or that can be permitted on the platform because that is what is going to get you to keep coming back and looking at more. The platforms deny this, by the way, but open up an app. You're going to see stuff that feels pretty weird and sort of unlike the border of propriety, right? AI isn't really going to work like that. Like chat GPT isn't going to try to titillate you every time you go to the homepage. What AI can do, though, is to get to know you really, really well and to create a sort of ever more personalized feed for you. And the whole way it is going to tell you a genius, almost no matter what you tell it, right?

And these are some of the factors that really worry me about AI. I think it has a sort of similarly worrisome effect on our collective mental health, but I do think it's going to be different than the sort of like rage bait social media phenomenon. I'm glad you mentioned that, something I saw this week,

I'm going to pull up. There's the new, again, talking about my change in behavior. 20-year-old Tim, 25-year-old Tim, would have been like really excited to try out all the new AI wearables. Oh, yeah.

I'm now saying the, wearer eye wearables and they make me deeply fearful for the future of the human race. I want to play this. This is a guy. I think he's 22. He's created a wearable. It's like a medallion. You wear around your neck.

And it's your AI friend. I think it's called friend. And here he is explaining it. I think the closest relationship that I would describe talking to an AI like this too is honestly like God in a way. Like I'm not particularly religious, but I think it is. similarly an omnipresent entity that you talk to with no judgment, that's just like super intelligent, you know, being that's always there with you, yada, yada, yada, right?

And like, that's, I think the most impactful thing of talking to these AIs is that you don't have these feelings of judgment. Like, even if you have a therapist, you talk to them, you still hold your words back a little bit. You just do. So you're going to have a wearable God that knows everything about you and doesn't judge you that you're going to get to keep with you at all times. That seems like that might create some pitfalls for me.

I don't know. It does. I'm glad you play that clip, though, because I do think it is fair to characterize the AI building labs of Silicon Valley as religious movements. Like, they really do think that they are building something akin to a machine god. And they're doing it kind of because they want to just sort of see what happens after, right? They'll tell you, we think this is going to be massively beneficial to people. I still hold out the possibility that it can.

But it also just seems obvious it's going to accelerate. a lot of harms, such as, you know, by driving people into delusions and other terrible outcomes. And removing them from society, why be in society? If you have an AI godfriend, like medallion, you know, it increases isolation. Also, do you want somebody to know every single thing about you? Do you, I don't, I don't know if we want to have the microphone on at all times. I think having some private thoughts are okay, actually. Your point on the religious thing with, I want to talk about Sam Altman a bit, I've been consuming an unhealthy amount of Sam Altman interviews. He's doing a lot of...

Why is he doing so many interviews, do you think? It's a good question. I think he sees himself right now as AI's diplomat in chief, and that serves him in a number of ways. Among other things, it's helping him build up this massive supply chain of data centers and energy that he needs to realize all his vision. So he's sort of on this globe-trotting tour to gin-up support for his project. It's going to sound really rude,

and I know that you need to have sources at OpenAI, so feel free to object to this. But, like, if a person believes that they are the Messiah or that they are ushering a God into existence, something that will save humanity or advance humanity to its next stage, then, like, you don't really need to question the intermediate steps that you're making to get there, right? Like, you don't need to reflect on, like, whether it's a good thing or a bad thing that, like, you know, there's some people out there that are, you know, made suicidal by Open AI or that there's some, you know, know that there are, you know, this problem or that problem, because, like, the greater good, the resurrection is coming in the future. When I listen to all these interviews, that's kind of what I sense that that is his view. Maybe he wouldn't put it that way, but what do you think about that? He wouldn't put it that way. I think his approach has been to sort of put some tool out there,

see what the reaction is, and then, like, calibrate accordingly. So it's kind of this like ready, fire aim approach. So for example, with SORA, their new AI video generating app, people download it, they realize, wow, there's a lot of copyright violations in this thing. Like, I can put Tim and SpongeBob. That's hilarious. And, you know, after a bunch of people are like, hey, what about copyright? Sam puts up a blog post. It's like, after hearing from our valued users, we have decided to implement controls, right? So that's better than doing nothing, I guess. It's better than doing nothing. And for now, it's fine. The question becomes, well, if AI systems become really powerful, do we still want to use this like ready fire aim approach to releasing them into the world?

Here's a more specific example of why I'm getting the Messiah concerns. He was talking to Tucker. I would never recommend a Tucker interview just because you hate to give him the clicks. But like, it's a truly fascinating interview. I mean, at least among them because Tucker accused him of murder halfway through and they do like 20 minutes on that. I don't want to get into all that. But the end, the very end, which I haven't actually. seen clip that much as a thing that gave me the most alarm. And I want to play, it's a little bit

long, but it's worth listening to all of it. Tucker asking Altman about the protections that people are going to have to put in place about not knowing what's real, I think. Let me ask you one last question, and maybe you can allay this fear, that the power of the technology will make it difficult, impossible for anyone to discern the difference between reality and fantasy. This is a famous concern. A few thoughts there. One, I think we are rapidly heading to a world where people, understand that if you get a phone call from someone that sounds like your kid or your parent or if you see an image that looks real, you have to really have some way to verify that you're not being scammed. And this is not like, this is no longer theoretical concern. You know, you hear

all these reports. At all? Yeah. People are smart. Society is resilient. I think people are quickly understanding that this is now a thing that bad actors are using. And people are understanding that you've got to verify in different ways. I suspect that in addition to things like family members having code words they use in crisis situations, we'll see things like when a president of a country has to issue an urgent message, they cryptographically sign it or otherwise somehow guarantee its authenticity. Families are going to need a code word. People are smart. Societies are resilient? Again, it's like, has he lived in our society for the last 20 years? Like I look on Twitter and like the worst AI slump imaginable has like 20,000

retweets and people replying to it mad about her saying how cool it is. It's like the idea that people are just going to adapt to this like this and your 80 year old great aunt is going to have a code word that she knows that you say. It's like dingo, you know, before you call her to ask for a check. That's fucking insane. Like that is an insane thing to believe that like Trump would put a watermark, a cryptographic watermark on his proclamations? Are you watching what he's doing now? Did you not listen to that and think this sounds like an insane person? I mean, I think he's right.

You do? I do. I do. You think families are going to have a code word so that when somebody calls their phone and gives them the Nigerian prince thing, they're going to know it's, they're going to know it's not real? I think it's a good practice. Like I think that, and this is, you know, long- who's going to actually be like the top 10% of society is capable of doing this? Like this was my fight with Mark Cuban over AI where he was talking about like,

oh, it's going to be so cool. People can be entrepreneurial on their own. I was like, yeah, the top 10% of most capable people in society will use this for really cool things. But like average people, you know, like my neighbor, Ms. Shirley, she's a 90-year-old woman. She's lived here since the 1940s. You're telling me that she's going to be able to know the difference between. a phone call, whether it's really her son or not? There's no way. What I am saying is that the risks created by products made by people, including Sam, require this sort of response. And to your

point, yes, many people are not going to do this and they're going to fall prey to scams. And I think that is really bad. But do I think it's silly to have a code word at your house? No. I also don't think it's silly. I think it's silly for the creator of the product to be like, my product is going create all these problems. Like as a result of my product, you are going to get scammed. People are going to steal your money. They're going to steal your identity. You're not going to know what's true and what is fiction. And my suggestion to you is that you have a family code word dingo that you use every time you answer the phone now. And it's, it's kind of like, what? That is your suggestion? You don't, shouldn't you, shouldn't your fucking supercomputer come up with a solution

that's better than this? It's not like an adequate response to the magnitude of the harm. I'm alarmed. I'm alarmed. I don't, like, do you think that people are going to be able to tell what's real and what's not in the news? I think that we're in for a messy period where we have to figure that out. I'll tell you what an optimist would say is like, Photoshop exists, bro, you know, and we had a moment where we were like, is that real or fake? And, like, we mostly figured out the cases in which it was really important to know what was real or fake. And it turns out in the vast majority of cases, it doesn't matter if someone use Photoshop.

Now, maybe the advent of AI-generated video will just sort of make all the problems exponentially worse. And I think we should be on guard for that. But, like, we do have previous instances of society adapting to a new technology. I hear of that. And I've heard that argument. Let me give you the pessimist pushback. And again, this is you're just representing the optimist view.

I know you're just following this stuff closer than me. So I'm hoping for you to allay some of my concerns. My pessimist view is that at the same time, these people, Sam and all these others are, saying that this supercomputer is going to end disease. It's going to solve all these problems. It's going to become so smart that you're going to be able to ask it for advice and it will give you advice and you should listen to it, even if it doesn't seem logical,

because it's going to be able to see around corners that you can't see. So simultaneously, the supercomputer is that smart and that good. Okay? Also, this is really just the same as like when the printing press was invented. And people back then thought that, you know, that it was going to be bad, that they were going to read fake stories and not know whether they were two or false. And I'm just like, it can't be both. It can't be the same as these other societal advancements, you know, and so easily, easy for humans to, to process and adjust to over a period of time. And also a brilliant supercomputer that can solve the mysteries of the universe that we've never been, that no humans ever been able to solve before, right?

Isn't there attention there? You don't think both things can be true. I do not. I don't think that the supercomputer can be so smart and brilliant that it's going to solve diseases and be able to give you advice and look around corners and know things that humans can't know. And also, the human ability for adaptability is going to be so strong that we're not going to be tricked by it.

It seems like we're going to be tricked by it. It seems like pretty much everybody's going to, except for maybe Sam Haltman and a few people, you know, know, at the very high end of the Stanford graduating class are going to be tricked by this really smart computer. To me, is that wrong? Yeah, I mean, that's one way of looking at it that could totally be true, you know? I feel like what you're describing, though, is a dynamic that you often just see in cybersecurity where, like, everything is a cat and mouse game, and defenders build walls, and attackers build ladders, and then defenders build higher walls, and the cycle just kind of

goes on forever. Who are the defenders, though, of the truth, I guess us? It's literally you and me. And that's the scary part. Yeah, we went to a lunch. It is scary. I was at a lunch with you. I think the last time I saw you was like one of these media literacy things in San Francisco. And I just kind of like think back on that. I don't know, I was saying three years ago.

And it feels like it could have been 100. You know, like the types of concerns that we were talking about. It was in the lead up to the 24 election, I think, and like how media companies can combat, fake news and misinformation. And I don't remember exactly what suggestions we had on the you and I and our brilliance had for the assembled. at that lunch, but I know that they are not nearly up for the task of like what's happening right now. And that's, and it's changing really fast. Yeah. Right? Yeah. I mean, I don't, isn't that where, like, to me, that's the thing that worries me. I'm open to the fact that AI is going to be really great for the sciences and for all these other areas that I don't know

much about. But in my area that I know a lot about, I'm looking at this and I'm like, I think it's going to be a catastrophe of unimagined proportions. I don't think that anyone's going to know what's real anymore. This is the risk, and it is a real risk. I mean, I'm glad you're talking about it in those terms because I think there is a strain of skepticism out there, which hates AI for a different reason, which is that it thinks it's all just a bunch of stupid hype and it's fake and none of it works and it hallucinates. What do you think about that? I think it's desperate cope from people who don't want to reckon with the fact that we might actually be heading into catastrophe. You do think it's cope.

I don't know. There's like a 10% of me that like, I've read the who's the guy, Gary is the guy on Twitter. Yeah, Gary's the point man for, for, for, for. If Sam is the diplomat for AI, Gary's the, you know, arguer for the fact that this is all fake and these guys are all snake oil salesmen and it's barely anything. I'm open to that, I guess. I don't know. I think that seems less likely than my catastrophizing. It's too good situation.

But what do you think is that possible? Do you think it's like, does he have any merit to his points, do you think? I mean, what Gary will point out is that the technology that is used to build current AI systems, large language models, have limitations that would have to be overcomeed for people like Sam. Altman to achieve their dreams. And Gary points out that so far, they have not managed to overcome these limitations. Now, this is a case, though, where Gary has had to move the goalposts over time, because the truth is that models have become much more powerful from GPD2 to GPD5 today. And so among the sort of AI accelerationist circles, Gary has become a kind of joke because

no matter how impressive anything an AI system can do, Gary is on X saying, aha, but I found it make one mistake. what are the smarties think about like the economic side of this i'm going to i'm going to stop catastrophizing for a minute or this is kind of a different type of catastrophizing but um like are we in a are we in the 90s again are we in a are we on a bubble trajectory like what what is i mean it's it's powering a lot of the kind of a weak economy otherwise right now really yeah i mean sam altman says we're in a bubble you know jeff bezos says we're in a bubble so it's like it's agreed upon by the people who are constructing the bubble that we're in a bubble of course

in each of those cases those people think they're on the right side of the bubble and they're creating the true value and it's the sort of other companies that are going to get caught with their pants down. What's the tidal is out to mix metaphors? So that's what they think. When I listen to Sam, it seems to me like if you asked him, I can't imagine that he says this to investors or whatever. I don't even need investors to how they're rich guys. Maybe he does. But like when I listen to it, it's kind of like when the answer is how are you going to monetize this? The answer is kind of like the AI will figure it out. No, no, no. That's not fair. Is that right? No, that's wrong. No. How it's going to monetize.

is if you're a person and your job is computer, pretty soon computer will be able to do your job. And instead of paying you 100K, 120K, whatever it is, they're going to pay Sam Altman 20K, and they're going to pass along the savings to shareholders. So that's where the value is. Is that the, I mean, what's the level of panic out there in the bay about just like programmer displacement, salaries, job loss?

When you look at the data, there is some evidence that junior programmers are having. a harder time getting hired than they used to because AI is better at coding tasks than it is basically anything else. There are other people will say, no, no, no, there are too many confounding variables. We don't know that that is true just yet.

But I talk to a lot of software engineers and what they will say is that it used to be that we would write code and then it moved to we write half the code and then it gets auto-completed. And now we just sort of supervise the code and we type in the box, what kind of code we want the machine to write.

And now it does that. So there are a lot of caveats and asteris along the way, but, like, that is the trajectory, and I can't imagine it coming to other professions. That doesn't sound like a fake innovation to me, if that's, like, really already happening to people in real life. Look at the revenue growth of these companies. I mean, this is, like, my other answer to the people.

It's like, in order for all of this stuff to truly be fake in the way that some people think that it is, then there are a lot of companies that have to be paying tens of billions of dollars to these labs in exchange for literally nothing. Like, I don't think that's happening. All right. I want to try to be positive for a second. Thank God. Jesus Christ.

No, I don't have a question. I don't have anything. So I'm hoping you do. You're out there. You're seeing the cool stuff. Like, what is some cool shit you're seeing that like isn't getting the attention? Like, oh, man, this is going to be neat. I mean, let's see.

Here, like, so I keep a note of what I call capabilities, which is just sort of evidence of mostly AI tech that is helping to advance the scientific frontier in some way that is going to be positive. So I just pulled it up. And over the past few weeks, like researchers at Microsoft and IBM are using AI to speed up to search for new materials and chemicals for batteries, which could lead to longer lasting batteries. The UK cabinet office recovered 480 million pounds that were lost to fraud using AI risk detection software. People are using AI to identify risks of cargo

fires. You know, some of this stuff sounds like super nichey and boring. I mean, maybe all of it did. But people are figuring out ways to try to do positive things with this stuff. Good things can happen. Yeah. It's hard for me to interpret the arguments around the environmental impact and obviously something like this has environmental impact right but like there are you know people on the deep climate concern side that like make claims that are apocalyptic about it and then you then you see kind of free market people being like well one search on your chat gbt is equivalent to like you know not even turning on a light bulb right you know what i mean it's like nothing and so i like have you tried

to navigate that dispute at all? Yes. Here's the sort of like middle path that I have arrived at. I think that for most people, moderate use of chat bots, you should not sort of feel bad about it any more than you would feel bad like taking a flight across the country or like binging eight hours of Netflix. Like all that stuff has an environmental cost. You're using chat GPT is not going to be much worse than that.

Now where I do think that there is room for concern is. in the construction of the massive data centers all around the country, that has a legitimate environmental impact. And this is where I think that the AI companies are really going to piss off every American is it seems like it is going to raise energy costs.

Like at some point, either now, like between now and the near future, Americans' electricity bills are going to go up. And AI is already deeply unpopular, by the way. Like, I'm out here, like, trying to tell people this is like stuff is very dangerous and I still somehow like get grouped in like the hype wing of the party. Right.

But like, but people truly hate this stuff. And, like, if you think they hate it now, like, wait until their electricity bill goes up $20 a month because then they're going to be in a lot more trouble. Yeah, that's a good point. The other thing about the data centers, and I don't know, I was listening to one of the Derek Thompson's podcast with somebody who's an expert on this. And I can't even begin to try to translate this. But, like, the data centers don't even have as long as a shelf life as the other ones used to, right? Like, because the technology is changing so fast, like, you have to update the capabilities so often. And so, like, they're expressing potentially some other concerns about that.

Like, even if you're, like, even if you're excited about the jobs that are coming to the community at the data center, like, in two to three years, it might be like, oh, whoops, no, sorry, this one is this is the old kind. This is the coal. I mean, I want to dig in on that more. Like, my understanding is, like, once you build one of these things, you, like, can swap components in and out, like, the main thing. Yeah, but we'll see, I guess. Anyway, I don't know. It's a brave new world out there. Can we do a couple of personality questions? Can you explain to me?

I want you to do a personality chart for Tim Cook. I don't understand. I truly, like, why would he get rid of the ice block apps off of the iPhone? Why is he bringing Donald Trump trophies? I mean, has there ever been a company in the history of the world that was more liquid that was more able to withstand like a little bit of heat? Like, it feels like it's over the top. I'm not asking him to be on the bulwark podcast talking about how Trump has small fingers

or whatever, but like it doesn't. it feels like he's going overboard. It's so depressing. It's like the only instinct this company has is to make money and create shareholder value. Now, it is true that Apple is uniquely vulnerable

to Chinese tariffs, and so in a way, I'm not surprised that they're bending over backwards to please the Trump administration. But like, go listen to Jim Jordan's committee about censorship and the jawboning

that they're so pissed off that happened under Biden. And now they're like, nervous because the attorney general is like, I don't like that app. I don't want to see it in the store. Like, obviously there's just a huge amount of hypocrisy here. It is true. And again, I guess this is probably too much to ask. It's just worth saying, though, like, yeah, they're vulnerable to the Chinese tariffs. Also, Trump is vulnerable to them. Like, a lot of times in these conversations, it's sort of at the TikTok deal at the top we were talking about, right? We're like, people talk about

how Trump has power, you know, and Trump bullies people and uses his power to get, what do you wants and that happens it's true like he can threaten people but like apple has power over trump do you think that do you think that if they decided if they just said they could have gone the other way which said okay great i agree the tariffs a great idea the iphone costs two thousand dollars now two thousand dollars for a new iPhone this year people are fucking pissed about that app store prices are going up you know there's a lot of non-political people out there that aren't involved in all of this stuff like you you know what i mean like me it would be like whoa i'm pissed at trump now i was i thought i was for trump why

Why is Trump doing this? Why is my, I want my new iPhone. It costs an $1,000 more. It's Trump's fault. They can put a little, this is Trump's fault tag on it. Like, that option was available to them. Like, they have power too, you know? Absolutely.

And like you, I am desperate to see more people call his bluff because in many cases, this is a bluff. Yeah, he might just talk about something else. Like, he, Trump tries us and like, look, are we invading Greenland still? You know what I mean? Like a lot. Like Trump likes Sam Altman. I'm sure Sam Altman will love this comparison. Does the ready fire aim.

Like, he throws out. shit. And then if it doesn't work, he moves on to something else. Yeah. Right. And like that could happen with some of these tech guys. You know, they're not like his, his great enemies that he's worried about. They're not like the Jim Comey or, you know, whatever. I mean, like, if they called his bluff, he might very well just move on to some to pick an easier fight. It's true. But in order for that to happen, they would have to have some motive other than revenue maximizing. And they just, they just simply do not. Okay. Well, I like revenue, but you know, you can balance in all things.

Yeah. Do you know why Elon is back with Trump? Do you have any insight into that? What happened? I mean, when you say back with Trump, you just sort of mean like tweeting nice things about him again? Yeah. I mean, they're hanging out.

Here's what I would say, Tim. Here's what I would say. Ketamine is a powerful drug, best use in moderate quantities under the care of a doctor. That would be my comment on that. Oh, okay. Yeah. What about light to moderate qualities at the club? It depends. I mean, look, is it your 40th birthday? Are you in Ibiza? Like, it kind of depends on the details.

Okay. All right. So you just think he's like, it's just like total. Like, it's not anything to do with like. Elon Musk is like a random number generator for opinions. You know, like just depending on the day, you're going to get 46 and then next, you know, the next day at 71. And like asking me to try to like chart the evolution is like, you know, asking me to guess the position of an atom. I think that's totally fair. All right. Last thing, I just, sure, out there, now all of a sudden the Silicon Valley kind of tech bro world is being, you know, analyzed like, you know, anthropologically, like what happened to them? I asked my colleague, I said you're coming on, I asked him for any thoughts on I should ask you. And one of his questions was, why, like, why did the old valley, like, gates, like, stay pretty liberal and the new valley, like, get red-pilled, like,

the younger internet valley. And I think then there's also kind of a sub-question to that, which is, like, did the new valley get red-pilled? Or is it just, like, 12 really loud, influential people who are red-pilled? That's my view. Okay, yeah. So give us a little assessment of what's happening out there. A little anthropology of tech bro world.

So I understand the perception that Silicon Valley just like swung massively to the right. But like to me, this is an artifact of the information environment created by social media algorithms that are constantly showing you the loudest, angriest, crankiest people, right? And our entire politics have reoriented around these cranks. And there are 12 of them in Silicon Valley who are really good at getting attention by saying kind of outrageous things all of the time. So like the rank and file workers at these companies, like check the donation. they're still donating to Democrats.

These people are not thrilled that Trump is in power, but there is a tiny elite subclass that has realized they can get a lot more out of Trump than they got from Biden because unlike Biden, Trump could be bought off. And it really is that simple. Yeah. Have people of the COVID red pill people move back?

You've got a new mayor now, Keith Robois. Is he back there? Like, you know, people got in condos again. What's happening? I mean, I think it's hard for me to say how much San Francisco has changed. I'm such a, like, true believer in San Francisco. I didn't care when everyone left.

I sort of don't care if they came back. It's always the same great city, like, to me, that it's always been. So, you know, I don't know. That's a bad answer to your question, but like... That is a bad answer. Yeah. Let me see if I could take it again. Okay, great.

Yeah, let's see. You're a professional podcaster. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, here's the answer to your question. If you look at the rents in San Francisco, they're skyrocketing again. This is where the AI boom is happening. And yes, it's a bubble and it's going to pop. And some people are going to get left high and dry.

But in the meantime, the rents are popping. The crazy parties are happening. And, you know, San Francisco is having a great time. But we always have a great time at San Francisco. What is in at the crazy parties now? What's the new? There's always some hot new trend that's starting up there that the rest of us haven't heard of yet.

Well, it's coming to New Orleans in five years. Designer drugs or different familial relationships or new germs. The best one I heard of recently was a peptide party where, you know, you're familiar with, you know, sort of the GLP3s and the Ozmpics and the Monjaro's. But there are these sort of next generation peptides that you can buy off of like, you know, shady websites. And so some people will now throw parties where you can sort of go and, like, sample. them and you know sort of body hack yourself into transcendence so that's that's our latest one out here tim all right it's so nice to be here in louisiana we've got fat people you know it's just whiskey and beer it's beautiful but everyone's i'll come back i'd like to see a peptide party invite me

i will i'll come back and see my old friends casey newton man i appreciate you very much for folks who want to nerd out on this more um platformer is the uh is the newsletter hard fork is the podcast. We'll be talking to you soon, brother. Thank you, Tim. Have fun. All right, guys, that was Casey Newton. The singularity couldn't come soon enough, I guess. We'll be doing that every, every six weeks or so, keeping our eye on the trajectory of our society and the tag oligarchs that are trying to influence it. Back to politics tomorrow. Hope you enjoyed it. And I hope we'll see you all then. Peace. She's a black belt in karate

Working for the city She has to discipline her body Because she knows that It's demanding To defeat those evil machines I know she can be found Oh Yoshime They don't believe me

But you won't let those Robots email They don't believe me But you won't let those Robots to feed me Those evil nature robots They're programmed to destroy us She's got to be strong to fight them

So she's taking lots of vitamins Because she knows there It'd be tragic if those evil robots win I know she can be them Oh, Yashimi They don't believe me But you won't let those robots defeat me They don't believe me

But you won't let those robots Seam-in-me-o-she-me The board podcast is produced by Katie Cooper With audio engineering and editing by Jason Brough Thank you.