The Bulwark Podcast - James Carville: Kamala-Gras

Episode Date: July 22, 2024

It's now the Kamala Harris parade, and James Carville has grabbed his whistle and baton for the march. The veteran strategist shares some campaign advice for the vice president and argues her 2020 message will play better in 2024—she's already being turned into a brat summer* icon. Meanwhile, Trump and Republicans may have been prematurely cocky. Tim Miller's pod today. show notes *The run-down on brat summer USA Today piece on brat summer, published before Biden dropped out of race The Charli XCX Trend, Explained Tim Alberta piece that Tim referenced

All right, guys, we are going to give you a full episode today. I'm so excited to have James Carville with us and in honor of Carville and in honor of Carnival. We'll maybe have a little bit of a different intro music for you today. But before we get to James, a quick reminder that I'm going to be in Dallas, Texas with Adam Kinzinger and Bill Kristol and Sarah Longwell and Sonny Bunch. And it's going to be a great time. And, you know, maybe we're going to have a little carnival of our own, a little Mardi Gras of our own. Now we've had a vibe shift in our politics. So make sure to get your tickets. Come on down to Texas.

Come hang out with us if you're not down there. Make a little weekend out of it. Go to thebullwork.com slash events to get your tickets today. We'd love to see you in Dallas. Up next,

the Mardi Gras king himself, James Carville. It's kind of the time Oh, kind of the time Oh, well, it's kind of the time Everybody's drinking wine All right, guys, we got some big news since yesterday. Many of the big names in the party have rallied around Kamala, including nearly all of her most realistic challengers. J.B. Pritzker just announced a couple of minutes ago.

Though I do think Charlie XCX posting Kamala is brat is probably her biggest endorsement yet. She's also raised over 60 million and counting. And here to talk about it all is veteran Democratic strategist, co-host of the Politics War Room, James Carville. James, where's the chaos we were promised? James, everybody told me if Joe Biden said it, everybody told you. They're like, James, you can't do this. There'd be chaos.

Where's the chaos, James? There is none. And by the way, we're from New Orleans. I see a parade is coming. I grab a whistle, a baton, and a hi-hat. And I throw the baton in the air because there's a parade it's called the kamala harris parade and we're all marching yeah that's it that's it that's it they can do whatever they want but this train has left the station eat her dust me and uh bill crystal yesterday we're talking

about this and and he said at the time you know he, look, the train could be gone in four hours, could be gone in 12 hours, or there could be a conversation. And clearly in the intervening time, there's no really realistic challenge that's going to emerge, right? As you know, I've been dealing with this for a long time. It's kind of personally painful. I think at the end of the day, what really swayed the president was he couldn't get any politicians to show up. I mean, he goes to Michigan and you can hide the polls from him. You can be sure he gets good news. You can adjust who he talks to.

You can control who comes in and out of the information flow. But when he goes to Detroit and the governor, neither is Democratic sense nor the Democratic Senate candidate shows up, he knows that. That cannot be hidden. And I think he had a growing sense of isolation that no one was going to go to the convention. He wasn't going to be able to march on the front row at a labor day parade with all the guys and you know lefty and shifty and you know whatever it just that wasn't going to work out that way and i think i think he he figured it out yeah it's sad when you put it like that but it's good on him for doing it i feel like i should have mentioned this yesterday look we've been on his ass you've been

on his ass longer than i have but uh it's still hard to do it it's hard to step aside and we're looking at the other side. When you look at the other side, you know, so this is not saying, what was the Biden old line? Don't compare me to the almighty. Compare me to the alternative. He's not the almighty. But if you look at the alternative,

these guys have been propping up a fucking rapist criminal for a decade now, you know? And so having one, so that's nice. My favorite, my favorite is Dan Jones the dan abrams both of whom i like okay i know i'm talking about how trump's changed man what in the fuck are you if anybody says that there should be a lifetime ban from being on anything okay i? That is just a breathtaking ignorance of what people are like, and particularly Donald

Trump. I love that. He was a changed man. I'll tell you what. Oh, my God. He's sound God. Yeah. Right. Sure. Absolutely. He would pat every fucking felon you could imagine parading around the convention floor. Indeed. Do you ever have any felons at any of the conventions you ran, James? Do you have any speakers fly straight

from jail to the stage? None that I know of. Probably some, you know, subsequent to, but I remember a time in politics where it was a mock against you if you were convicted of a felony, but. Well, maybe it still is. What do you think now turning to Kamala to forward looking? So this is what I think, Tim. First of all, people don't know her. And she's got to understand that. And the Trump people know that people don't know her. So in the next, somebody told me it was 38 days to the convention.

I'm pulling that out of my ass. I think so. I think it's 28. It's a battle for definition. And usually summers are not the most exciting times about presidential politics. I think this one is going to be a little bit more. And they need to hurry and get some definition on her. Of course, they're going to hit her pretty hard because – and they're hurt.

It was like yesterday when they got the phone call, oh, God, shit, we've got to change everything. And you're a pilot and you're getting ready to land a plane, and everything is, your whole mind is set on landing. And then they say there's a plane on the runway, you've got to do a goal route. You've got, oh, shit, you have to rethink your whole mentality. Now, they're trained to do that where political people are not. Yeah, the mentality shift is noteworthy. I want to talk a little bit about what Kamala can say, but let's look at the Trump side of this first, because

obviously, your claim to fame, it's the economy, stupid. Tim Alberta pointed out that the Trump people had a frame that they were sticking with, which was strength versus weakness. And the debate and the assassination attempt both played right into that frame in a way that was like, in a way that you could only dream about in a campaign frankly and he wrote yesterday alberta really cannot overstate how problematic this is for the trump operation everything they built was customized for that contest strength versus weakness with biden i mean everything and you can see that a little bit and it's only been 24 hours but they seem to be flailing a little bit.

I mean, they're going to attack Iran immigration. They'll come up with stuff to attack Iran. But they have lost their North Star a little bit, don't you think? I do. Let me say this. Taylor Byrd is one of the better reporters we have today. I mean, he's a very, very good reporter. And, you know, again, to go back to my analogy, they were all prepared to land the airplane.

They had the wheels down. They had the flaps in the right place. They had the towing. Okay. And then, hey, we've got to go back up. And they're fighting the controls now. And I think that what Tim says fits pretty well with my early analogy. Yeah.

I want to play for you just because you deserve a little bit of pain this morning, James. You're riding a little high. I want to play for you the voice of Stephen Miller. Here's him last night on Fox talking about the state of play. They held a primary. People, they had ballots. They filled out circles. They went to the voting booths.

They spent money on advertisements. And as President Trump said, the Republican Party spent tens of millions of dollars running against Joe Biden. Now they just woke up one morning and said, never mind. We're canceling the entire primary. We're getting rid of our candidate. We're pretending the election has never even happened. And we're going to let donors handpick a new nominee. Poor little Nazi. Poor little Nazi. Poor little Nazi. Shut up. I always knew that guy was odious.

I never had to listen to a clip that long. Oh, my God. Oh, you could see the fear on their face. The Democrat Party is a coup. That's how hard they've been hit. That's the depth of their argument. Yeah. You can see why he takes it out on immigrants.

So now he had to have a tough time in the cafeteria with that voice and face. Oh, God. You know, in high school. You think anybody wanted to hang around him in high school? I don't think. No, no. I don't think we need a professional psychologist to figure out what's happening what about their other message that they're going to try to do with the coup thing is that the biden should resign biden must resign there's been a cover-up i don't i don't look as somebody who's

been talking about the biden age problem for a while against interest, what do you think is the efficacy of that message? Well, what they're probably going to say is that Harris knew he was declining and didn't say anything and put the country in jeopardy. And she's going to, I'm sure she's got a good answer for it. She's got to pull it up and use it for sure. But, you know, right now they haven't settled on anything they're you know they're just picking up the machine gun and you know somebody's coming up but harris they have to be very aggressive right now definition they they need to worry less about organizing and more about getting out there the har Harris team, you mean, or the Trump team? The Harris team.

And they need to start doing some things in fast. You know, they can go to, one of my ideas, go to Carlisle Army War College. You know, you got all kinds of people writing an actual offense, foreign policy speech. I think part of her campaign, and remember,

she was a successful DA, attorney general, and she couldn't talk about it in 2020 because of the assonanity and democratic campaign coach in 2020 wouldn't allow you to talk about that so she looked like an empty vessel she looked like a because the real reason story yeah she didn't have the story i mean she couldn't't have the story. I mean, she couldn't tell people the real truth. Well, now the real truth kind of helps her. Right. Yeah. Okay. Exactly.

It's just how much it changes. And the one thing that people believe, mark this down, they believe these companies are rigging prices, fixing prices, talking to each other to screw them over. And she has a consumer background to say, I'm going to have an attorney general establish this task force to see if we're in violation of any trust laws or whatever. Then you're using that experience to something that they can't say that people really do care about and they really do think.

They will say in focus groups, I can't tell you, a number of people say, Joe Biden hadn't caused inflation. He too old to cause inflation. Okay, these companies are doing it, but he's too old to stop them. So you want a little populist from Kamala. I took on the big banks. I took on these big corporations. I'm going to go out there and do that.

But most of all, you're taking on price fixing. Yeah, price fixing. Because if you try to, I took on this, and I'm going to do away with the capital gains tax and we tag you get you get lost yeah we'll allow them to make a profit is their time to but not to make unreasonable predatory profits at the expense of american people that's not what our system you're hurting my former republican free market soul with this message change that it seems smart seems smart, though. That seems like good politics, maybe. I think it is good politics. And by the way, you know, Adam Smith, you know, really believed in

antitrust laws. Really didn't believe in price fixing. Okay, that's the most violated thing you can do to capitalism. Grocery stores aren't, you know, monopolies. But Kraft Foods is a monopoly, you know. The largest egg companies are. And what they have is the top, if the top three are talking to each other, capitalism loses what it's supposed to be about, competition. I mean, I would argue my argument should fit right into your earlier laissez-faire

capitalist instincts. Okay. All right. We're going to try to blend them. We'll blend. Okay. I'm for that. But the prosecutor thing also goes to, she had that tweet that she sent out about the

bail fund, which is going to hurt her. But, you know, she has a record of being strong on law and order. She has a record of going after corruption. She has a record of going after corrupt politicians and companies. That's where she's got to start, right? Like that frame with Trump? Or do you think that's a little too... Remember, there's one more thing. Falling crime rates. And not just falling a little

bit. Yeah. Right? Yeah. And I think she made a mistake when she didn't take crime as her portfolio as soon as she came into the office of vice president. But, you know, best time planet, I'll tell you, 25 years ago, second best now.

Yeah. Under the Biden-Harris administration, we took over from Donald Trump, and he's down 25% of whatever it is. Pretty good message. I agree with that. Obviously, the abortion message is stronger. Biden was- I want to interrupt you.

Just so you know. I keep hearing this. No, go ahead. What happened to the Democratic Party? How did the Democratic Party fall stronger. Biden was. I want to interrupt you. Just so you know. I keep hearing this. No, go ahead. What happened to the Democratic Party? How did the Democratic Party fall apart? I was reading something. I'm not going to respond to that. By this guy, Tyler Coward.

He's kind of a comedian. He's an economist up at George Mason. I got news for you. The Democratic Party is not falling apart. It wins elections. Yeah. Okay. So it hasn't lost an election in two years.

We were winning every senate race yeah every senate race that people had a problem with the fact that biden was too old the problem is and of course the democratic party is always convoluted but the democratic party has not fallen apart it's a much stronger party if you count elections which that's a pretty good barometer, and true among some Democrats, that the whole thing is going to hell in a handbasket and the party's, you know, irretrievably damaged. And that's just not true at all. We kept saying this on all the polls, Democratic Senator candidates were all winning.

There's no evidence of any issue. And that Michigan poll with Biden was down seven, that was yesterday morning. And I said, I bet you Slotkin is up. Look. And he said, well, yeah, she is up. And that was everywhere. People actually want to vote Democratic. It's a hard thing to say because it always dims and disarrays.

But I think this is a pretty defining moment. I really do. I want to do VPs, but first, all that happy talk. You know, I like to be rain cloud, James. So what worries you about Kamala? What worries me is this. You think of the great politicians. You think Reagan, for sure, Clinton, for sure, Obama.

I guess going back, maybe Eisenhower, a little older. But whatever. They were all very competitive. But you know what they all had in common? They never looked like they were trying too hard. And once you look like you're trying too hard, and that's something that Harris has got to understand, the line where you look too aggressive.

You look like you're Bobby Gentle. You don't want to be Bobby Gentle. You don't want to be Bobby Gentle. And sometimes I'll look at clips of her, if I were her campaign manager, and say, Madam V, let's take about 20% off of that. And I think one of the things that when come up in politics they probably feel like they don't get heard and so they have to be aggressive yeah no i she would say that she would say that i think that uh you know because i my criticism of her in the past is that sometimes she gets in her

head and i think that people say like because of the way women are treated because of the abuse you get because of like the length you know that you overthink things a little bit. And when you're overthinking, when you're in your head, then you come off as a little more like you're trying. I would say let's try less harder. Let's be as ambitious as ever, but don't give the people that you're trying too hard because it's not a good sales tactic.

Yeah. I don't know what you think about this. My advice to team would be and has been she should let it rip if i was her i would just try to go out there and be like i can't be worried that they're going to take some clip out of context right like i just got to be me and do me and and maybe that'll be better but i don't know once you start thinking they're gonna do that then you think of every word that you say and then you end up not saying anything and i would really really coach self-confidence you know you know you know what to say and you're right yeah but they'll take anything and yeah redo it and rework it and i'm looking for self-confidence, like, I'm going to win this goddamn thing. Do you understand?

And I thought her answer was, I'm going to work hard to earn a nomination. I thought this was just stupid. MSNBC, if you don't nominate her, this is an affront to women of color in an intergalactic system, and you cannot do this. That's a dumb message, right? To her credit, she said, I plan on competing for the nomination. By saying that, no one's going to run against you. If you say I'm entitled to the nomination,

somebody's going to run against you. It's actually the smart political thing to say. You know, so far, so good, but we ain't going very far. Okay, one more thing. You just popped in my head before VPs on the confidence thing. Man, I think the Republicans got to have some regrets that they're a little overconfident right now i look back at that convention and and the pick of jd vance just the whole vibe of it was like that they felt like this was a coronation and trump's return rightful return to the throne and all that looks like that was kind of a miss now in retrospect i don't know

do you still pick jd vance if you knew they were going to do this well what's interesting is so let's fast forward thursday the 22nd of august in in chicago and by harris so it's harris her husband her kids and i don't know it's an andy bachir I don't know, okay, of Josh Phil. A 45-ish guy with three kids and a wife, and they're on the podium and the balloons are dropping. That's, you see, that's signal change. Now, they can't do that with J.D. Vance, and I'm just saying, I'm not being, I'm just telling you what time it is. You know this, I know this.

His wife is Hindu, is an Indian. Apparently was a clerk for two Supreme Court justices, I know this, his wife is Hindu, is an Indian. Apparently, clerked for two Supreme Court justices. I don't know. They're attacking her right now. On the right. The right is. And so, can they bring J.D. Vance's wife and

kids? I don't know. Y'all built that stinky shithouse that you live in. Go ahead and live in it. I don't give a fuck. Isn't somebody? But you know how these people are. Yeah, Usha took some shit from the right, no doubt.

And I just think that also, J.D., just like him and Trump sitting next to each other, just take the families out of it. Kamala sitting next to her VP, Trump and him, he just looks like, he looks sad. He's like this little kind of, you know, he's got his baby fat still on his face. And he's got to say, yes, sir, Mr. Trump. Yes, sir, Mr. Trump. And like, you know, he's been very extreme on the issues. I don't know.

Talking about potential vice presidential pick. If they want somebody to go after Trump in Vance, defend her. Yeah. That's somebody three times better than all the rest of them put together. Who's that? Mitchell Andrew. All right, get Mitch out there. The best attack defender you could imagine.

Do you worry a little bit about Mitch and Kamala having to carry all the Biden baggage? You know, they're going to make you carry it. They're going to make you carry it no matter what. But a little bit. You know, if you had this year Shapiro look if you if you wanted a kind of can-do message in a swing state then you go to Josh yeah if you want a real kind of youth message that peeled to middle America or something then you go with Andy I mean it depends on what you're looking for at the end of the day but you get but the thing is

you got a lot of good choices. I like the Mitch idea. I should have mentioned it yesterday because it had come to my mind and I forgot. Do you think that's conceivable that he'd be in the conversation? I think it would be conceivable. And what are you doing when you're looking at your potential vice president? You have a lot of things that you're going to look for. The one thing that he excels in is attacking

and defending. So I was talking with Liz Smith about this, my friend who did Pete's campaigns, now helping the DNC. We were just talking about it behind the scenes. And her point, and with Pete, there's gay stuff that potentially is like, are we going a little too far with a black woman and a gay man? I don't know's maybe some concerns there but her point which is right in line with yours is in this day and age especially you know given what the democrats have had in a lack of messaging and the biden harris ticket like picking somebody that can sit in a tv studio that can do video youtube videos that can just be constantly on the attack delivering messages is like a super valuable trait in modern politics, more so than when, like, you only had to go on the nightly news, you know?

And it's sort of a small list. I mean, Pete can do it, obviously. Shapiro, I think, can do it well. Mitch could do it. Once you get past that, maybe like a Chris Murphy could do that. Chris Murphy. If I were putting parlays or something, you know, if I had like 25 to one shot, I definitely would Chris Murphy because he generates, if not that, way older than he looks.

And he's got the one issue that's really potent that Democrats do not exploit, and that's the whole gun issue. Yeah. So I think that you were smart to mention Chris's name. What we finding out is what people like you and I knew all the time is just so fucking much talent in a Democratic Party. Why? And when you start talking, well, it could use this guy. Well, you know, this guy, we can do this. Oh, we're going to do that. What about that? Yeah. And I mean, it's kind of a fun game, but but there's a lot of people walking around out there that can fill a lot of bills right now.

Okay, there's two of the top candidates. Really quick, then I'll let you go. Shapiro. This is basically a Shapiro porn podcast at times. So I think he's done a great job. I worry the Israel issue. Israel-Gaza has been off the table for a while for Democrats. It was obviously a huge problem in the spring.

He was vocal, rightly, by the way, speaking about against anti-Semitism on campus. He is Jewish. Do you worry about that becoming a distraction? Very little. And when you have the Republican senator at a Trump rally trying to run with you, the Democratic governor, that's a good sign. Let me tell you, that's something that happened for Shapiro. Yeah, for something that happened for Shapiro.

That's how popular he is. And his whole reputation is can-do stuff. I think, regardless of whether there are reasons that people feel very intensely about this whole issue on either side, I just don't think this could be that big of a voting issue.

I mean, some of the young, college young, you know, a percent of people under 30 go to Ivy League schools. You can't count them. They're so small. It's kind of nice, actually, to not have that baggage, potentially, just as far as turnout in Madison and Ann Arbor and stuff is concerned, maybe. Maybe so. But, you know i mean

it bring you a lot yeah all right last one mark kelly people floated him astronaut great bio arizona swing state some concerns though that you know i guess a democrat would have to could appoint his replacement katie hobbs but then then it's up in 26 and you know maybe chuck doesn't like that maybe isn't quite as compelling he's the most compelling story between him and gabrielle but maybe not as compelling like verbally as some of the other people we've talked about what do you think about kelly look he's a very hot pick among the kind of more elite chattering chattering class my only thing i would say about senator kelly is

he's a little old yeah ideally i'd like to have somebody under 55 because you want to be able to troll that old ass motherfucker he's the oldest candidate ever now that's enough it's our issue now it's our issue right right right but i just think we want to we want to project generational change youth vigor and there are a lot of people we got that can do that with okay i agree with that all right finally to close we'll actually have one more thing before we close what do you got back there what do what's your favorite bottle back there you got you got your whiskey cabinet behind us you got something you got a favorite you want to show us if we want to have a victory sip this weekend. This is a little bit old, but this is a wine.

This is a Weisling, which is a hell of a good fricking wine. People don't understand how good a wine that Weisling can be. Okay. They really don't. And this is something, I don't even know what this is. Somebody gave it to me. Vancouver Island Seaside Gin. I love gin.

Okay. I'm a big gin guy i don't i don't think there's any such thing as a vodka martini a little vancouver island seaside gin martini i might i might need a seaside gin martini myself this weekend there you go i wanted to have that because i wanted to have a toast to you because i gotta tell you this i know you've taken some shit over the past year or two and you you don't want to be patting yourself on the back. But I got to say, for about a year now, James Connerville and David Axelrod, who were the strategists behind the last two successful Democratic presidents before Joe Biden, were out there saying repeatedly,

this is a problem. He's too old. There's an iceberg ahead. We should turn before we get to the iceberg. And a bunch of idiots who don't know anything that the Midas touch podcast that are like black knight 10 on twitter are like random people have never been on campaigns all these people like are out there like hey hey actually what I think we should do is press on the gas and speed right into the iceberg you know and everybody's like yeah yeah and jay these old fuckers don't know anything and i just we got the speed straight into the iceberg and i just i gotta say maybe we should have just listened to people who know a thing or two and

been around politics maybe there's something to be said for that that's all i'm gonna say because it seems like it's i mean you, the election isn't won yet, but just vibes wise, it seems like things are turning out a little okay. I don't know. One man's opinion. Thank you. All for the greater glory of LSU. Go Tigers. James Carville, thank you for coming on.

Go Tigers. We've got the number one recruit in the country coming next year. Bryce Underwood out of Michigan. Life is good. Kamala is brat. Tigers are king. Thank you to James Carville. We'll be back tomorrow with another edition of the Bullwark Podcast. See you all then.

Peace. I get money, you get mad, they kiss the banks off Yeah, I know your little secret, put your hands up It's your R.B.S. on your number one Like bum dance, concussion, get your angels Why you lying, you a punk unless you famous Do that little dance without a use in that mess It's your R.B that you're jealous of me You're obsessed and just confess it cause it's obvious It's okay to just admit that you're jealous of me You're obsessed and just confess it cause it's obvious

I'm your number one I'm just living that life One that's called classic but it's still punk The Bulwark Podcast is produced by Katie Cooper with audio engineering and editing by Jason Brown.