The Bulwark Podcast - Mark McKinnon: The Message Still Matters

Episode Date: November 17, 2022

Midterm voters in the middle were deliberative and serious, and were not seduced by the crowds, the media spin, and the polls. Plus, a late Elvis sighting at Mar-a-Lago, and the Republican House makes moves to defend the insurrectionists. Mark McKinnon joins Charlie Sykes today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Bullwark Podcast. I'm Charlie Sykes. Republicans have officially taken control of the House of Representatives, and I see that Jim Jordan is already on cue, going to hold a press conference about investigations into the Biden family. Well, they are nothing if not predictable. Meanwhile, we are getting word that on the House floor at noon, probably you will have already heard this by the time you listen to this podcast, Nancy Pelosi will give a speech crafted in part by historian John Meacham announcing that she intends to pass the torch, that she will be stepping down from leadership, but will remain in Congress as an emeritus backbencher. And she is going to be passing the torch to future leader Hakeem Jeffries. So we have so much to talk about here. We are joined by

Mark McKinnon, media advisor for both Democratic and Republican campaigns, including George W., John McCain, late Texas Governor Ann Richards, late Texas Representative Charlie Wilson. And of course, he's the co-creator, co-executive producer and co-host of Showtime's The Circus, inside the greatest political show on earth. And of course, we know that the Bulwark's own Tim Miller served as a guest host earlier this season. So first of all, good morning, Mark. How are you? Good morning. It was great having Tim in the cockpit. He was terrific. Did he behave well? Did he get along? Oh, no, not at all. He didn't behave at all. That's why he was so good. I'm going to talk to him actually later today for tomorrow's podcast. I'm going to get his side

of the story, including what the hell happened in Arizona. He spent a lot of time down there, so he's got a lot of good insights. I know. I am anxious to talk to him. So let's just start off with this breaking story. This is fresh, at least for us. Nancy Pelosi passing the baton. Your thoughts, Mark? Well, as usual this morning, Charlie, no lack of material. And this is a big breaking news development. and I think a really good one for politics in general, but especially for the Democratic Party. It's stunning to me. There's some data that I saw recently about the average age of office holders in America these days, and it's like 70. It's ridiculous. And it's like, you know, 20 years higher than it was just a decade or two ago. And you'd think given the kind of the emerging demographics of the country, it would be just the opposite.

Right. And, you know, it looks like we're going to potentially have two, you know, 80 year olds running for president from both parties. So I thought for a long time that both parties should look to their benches and and appeal to the growing demographics of younger voters who are increasingly obviously important. And Hakeem Jeffries is a very, very talented guy. And I think, you know, a very good message for Democrats to be sending that they're going to go younger for finally. So looking back on Nancy Pelosi's career, you know, she was always the number one target. Yeah. I mean, she appeared in every single ad everywhere in the country. But in retrospect, she will be remembered as one of the most effective speakers, won't she? How do you think she's going to be remembered? Yes.

I don't think you get much argument, not only from Democrats, but from Republicans. Republicans recognized just how powerful a speaker she was. And that's why she was the target of so much Republican attacks and angst, because she was so effective. I think that there's just no question that she will go down as one of the most talented, gifted, and effective speakers in American history. And I think we'll be reminded of that very, very shortly, because she was able to accomplish quite a bit with a very, very narrow majority. Yeah, good point. How do you think Kevin McCarthy is going to stack up, assuming that he gets it? Because he's going to have a very, very slim majority. And somehow Nancy Pelosi was able to herd all of those cats and get legislation passed, which is really remarkable. I think it's

we're going to be reminded how remarkable it was when we see the clusterfuck that Kevin McCarthy is going to preside over. Oh, listen, that's a great point. I think that's exactly right. And I had your old friend and colleague David Jolly on the show to talk about McCarthy. You guys know him well. I mean, Jolly's point was, A, you know, it's not even clear he would be speaker. But if he is, he's going to be the most miserable speaker in the history. Most miserable and least effective as compared, especially to Nancy Pelosi.

And we're seeing it already this morning. Uh, and in the last 24 hours, I think you mentioned Jim Jordan, uh, and you know, he's dancing down the halls right now, uh, because it's pretty clear that, uh, that actually it's not inflation that he's so concerned about, but it's going to be investing, not just Hunter Biden, but they're planning on investigating the Justice Department and their prosecution of Jan 6th insurrectionists, right? So now what we're going to be seeing from the Republican Party is the grand defense of the insurrectionists. And that's their primary agenda right now. And so, yes, to your point, I don't think McCarthy's going to hurt any of these cats, and the cats are going crazy. So you traveled all around the country during the campaign. And of course, there were

a lot of cross currents, a lot of people concerned about inflation, about the state of the economy, the national debt, abortion, crime, the border. What percentage of voters do you think were motivated to go to the polls because they thought, I want a Republican Congress that will get to the bottom of the Hunter Biden laptop store? You know, it's just amazing that the Republican Party could claw their way to the bottom in an electoral environment so advantageous. You know, I mean, first of all, you have the historical trends. You know, Obama, who was a pretty popular Democratic president, I think lost 60 something seats. Clinton lost 50 something seats. Amazing numbers.

Just based on historical trends, you'd expect that, you know, there'd be plus 30, plus 40 seats for Republicans. And then you stack on top of that, just the issue environment that was so good for Republicans when you just, the top three, economy and crime and the border. And yet they didn't have the discipline to, well, first of all, nominate candidates who weren't election deniers. Arizona is a great example. You had a terrifically talented candidate in Carrie Lake, who if she'd just sort of run on those issues, would have won by, you know, probably double digits. And yet she was down there saying that the John McCain voters were not welcome in Arizona, for God's sake, you know. And I know that, you know, it's been a while since John McCain was around, but there's still a lot of reverence for John McCain. A lot of people said, well, if you're kicking out John McCain voters out of the party off the crazy train here. And and and that's what we saw was just a

thank God, a great sigh of relief for those of us who just said, finally, there's some semblance of sanity in the American voters who said, you know, stop the madness. But I think it's going to become very clear that Republicans are not going to learn the lesson from this. So, you know, Jim Jordan going after Hunter Biden, Carrie Lake in the closing days of the campaign saying she doesn't want any McCain Republicans around. be willing to make a pivot to say, OK, you know, what might have played in a primary or on Fox News is not necessarily a formula for winning general elections. No question about it. I mean, that's exactly why those of us who had hoped that there was some, that Republicans would, you know, take Donald Trump, get him off the windshield, put him in the rearview

mirror and look toward the sort of compassionate conservative message that attracted people like me to the party. And they're going just the opposite way. In fact, it appears that they've learned no lessons. And that's what we're seeing from the leadership fight with the Republican Party. And if that's the way that they're going to go, then, you know, Democrats should be very jubilant right now. So let's talk about Donald Trump. You know, I've been reading a lot of the Trump is done porn, which I enjoy and I like to watch. I'm going to admit all of that. I think that it's premature, but I want to get your take on on that announcement, the timing of that announcement, why he decided to do it,

how tired and boring and disconnected he seemed and the crickets in response from the usual suspects in the Republican Party who would normally flock to his banner. So let's just talk about that event. You know, you put together these events, you've advised people, you've written speeches. What did you think about Monday night? Well, it felt like light Elvis for sure. And, uh, it was a sleepy Donald Trump, uh, which was, you know, uh, uh, ironic at the very least. It was shockingly bad. I mean, just to see the video of the people wandering around in the back while he's low energy droning on and they're trying to get out of the hall. They're not allowed to leave the hall. I mean, oh my God. It was interesting to see how quickly, how many people are, how many rats are leaving the ship. I mean, just a good example. I think

it's Christie Noem, you know, somebody who, you know, once carved Donald Trump into the rocks of South Dakota as an offering. And still, the thing we know about Donald Trump and the reason why he has announced when he did and the reason he announced for president eight years ago was that all he really cares about is attention. You know, that's his drug. And he ran for president with no notion that he was going to be president. In fact, he was surprised, as most people were when he actually won the election, he was going to go run because he knows that running for president is the brightest spotlight and the biggest stage in the world. And he was going to do that.

And then he was going to go endorse Chris Christie for president. He just kept winning. And now the notion that, you know, Ron DeSantis or anybody else in the Republican party should have the spotlight is just doesn't figure into his thinking. And so he's going to, he jumps on the stage to attract the spotlight, which he did. And the spotlight was not very excited about what it saw. But all of that said, that MAGA base, that hardcore base, whatever it is, whatever that number is, 25, 30 percent of Republicans, you go around the country and you think if there's a, you know, it's not just going

to be Ron DeSantis. Other people are going to run. You divide up the rest of the field. And as you know, Charlie, it's a winner take all primary. And if Donald Trump runs around the country getting 30 percent of those primary votes and nobody else can can exceed that. He's still got at least a reasonable chance of being the Republican nominee. So what is the mood? What is the mood among Republicans? Last week, there seemed to be this recognition like, oh, my God, this stuff is politically toxic. If we roll into 2024 with this message, with somebody who's continuing to relitigate the last election, we're going to lose. I mean, there seems to be at least a temporary sense that a normal Republican

stands a very good chance of winning in 2024, but Donald Trump appears to be almost a sure loser. At least that's what I'm getting sort of the under their breath and sometimes not under their breath commentary at the moment. Yeah, enormous frustration, I think, from most of the under their breath and sometimes not under their breath commentary at the moment? Yeah, enormous frustration, I think, from most of the Republicans that I talked to that, again, you know, saw huge advantages going into these midterms, feel like they blew it for a lot of reasons, but including and especially Donald Trump, you know, putting up bad candidates and then running around the country in the closing days of the election to remind everybody that he was a big part of or wanted

to be a big part of the future. So I think there's a lot of gnashing of teeth, a lot of angst just because they see that, you know, if you could just cut that anchor off the party, the Republican Party would be floating pretty well in these political seas right now. And yet it just keeps dragging them down. They can't quit him. No, they can't quit him. And I'm really struggling to find the scenario. I mean, you'd have to have the field coalescing. It would have to be one-on-one. We don't know whether Ron DeSantis is going to get in. Do you think Ron DeSantis will get in? What do you think? It's an interesting question because I think the conventional wisdom is, you know, he's the guy de facto going to get in. I think that's premature. And it's and it's just that it's conventional wisdom. First of all, he doesn't have to do anything for a long time. So he should be able to sit back. If he's smart, just let, you know, let Trump stew in his own juices, which you know he's going to do.

But I think your main point is that there's really no scenario I see where Donald Trump just says, ah, you know what, I'm going to fold it up. I mean, it's just going to be a vengeance to her. I mean, you know he's writing down names. You know he's Kristi Noem's at the top of that list right now. And so, I mean, do you see a scenario? I'm talking, I mean, do you see a scenario? I'm talking, I mean, maybe a health event, but there's no legal event that's going to stop him. In fact,

just the opposite. I think that's going to motivate him. So under what scenario does Donald Trump not run? I don't see one. No, I see no scenario whatsoever. And the key is DeSantis because DeSantis has so much credibility and support with the base. He has a kind of a unique status right now. I cannot even imagine what this scenario that Mike Pence is, is, is imagining. I don't see any path for him. And I'm skeptical of, you know, the Chris Christie's of the world. Well, what do you think? I mean, Pence is clearly in a, in a rollout mode, but, and I was listening to him, you know, sort of drone on speaking of, of low energy. Does Mike Pence really think that the Republican party is going to turn from Donald Trump to him? I think he does. I think he and his brother, and I just don't know a single other person that is excited about the notion of a Mike Pence candidacy.

I mean, he's the kind of guy who sort of tries to please everybody and pleases nobody. Exactly, yeah. But there's some interesting dynamics going on. You know that a lot of people will just show up because running for president means money. It means attention. And so there's a lot of people out there who, you know, Pompeo's the, you just kind of go down the list of people who are going to put their name on the list anyway. And I, you know, I think somebody like Glenn Youngkin's an interesting candidate. I like his sort of sunny optimistic sort of, you know, version of Republican message. And somebody

like him, I think is in an interesting sort of, you know, stalking position. And Trump thinks so too. Otherwise he wouldn't have launched that stupid, inane, racist attack on his name. Exactly right. Exactly right. And, and the thing about DeSantis is that, uh, you know, he's obviously enormously talented, uh, super smart, but I think he's wound really tight and he has a very small decision-making circle, which is basically him and his wife. And, you know, when you go on the presidential stage, you can't do that. You've got to delegate and you've got to let things go.

And that's going to be hard for him to do. So, you know, there's a long list of people who were the sort of de facto favorites, you know, that we can go down the line and talk about. So, you know, DeSantis is in a very strong position. But, you know, the closer you get to the sun, the quicker people melt. So we'll see. Well, Pompeo is also kind of interesting. He's taking some pretty direct shots now at Trump more aggressively than I would have thought. He put out a statement, you know, essentially mocking Trump for saying that I am a victim. Again, you know, speaking of, you know, dark horses that are out there. But he's taken a more aggressive anti-Trump stand

than virtually any of the other major candidates, with the possible exception of, say, a Chris Christie, who I don't think is major. Yeah, that's interesting. And the things that's caught my attention, that and like the Christie known thing, it's like, oh, this is interesting. You know, the people who have been kind of the devil's disciples and acolytes are turning. And it reminds me of the man who would be king. You know, this is the old story about the guys that go down into Africa and they've never seen a white man before. And they think that he's a god and everything's fine until he suddenly is cut and he bleeds. And as soon as they see that he's mortal, they throw him in a pot and cook him and eat him. And so there's going to be that element to Trump, but it's not going to phase Trump. It's just going to make him matter. So that's the dynamic we have. Well, let's talk

about the sort of the iron triangle of the Republican Party, obviously, including, you know, one side being the media. What do you make of the Murdoch empire pivot, which seems to be very sharp and relatively savage. Boy, not even relatively. Florida man announces. Page 26. Yeah. We're talking about the New York Post headline yesterday. The Murdochs obviously have enormous sway and influence, and that got my attention more than anything, just how quickly that empire has turned. Yeah. And that's a, that's a big damn deal. Okay. How big a deal is it? Let's try to factor this out. So when we're talking about this, we're talking about the wall street journal, the New York post, which, but Fox news. Yeah. So how big a problem is that for Trump now?

Doesn't he just go to Newsmax and OAN and get the base to turn against Fox? Yeah, he will. And he'll try and position them now as kind of the establishment and will, you know, feed fuel to the OANs and the other. But the DeSantis's and the others will be jockeying for that considerable attention and therefore influence and money. So it's really going to divide up the the Republican ecosystem that once was in lockstep behind Trump. So it's not just the party that's divided, you know, it's the media ecosystem. And that's that's going to be a big change, which is crucial.

And the thing about it is, is that, you know, Trump benefited from having this alternative reality silo. But at least right now, it's not a complete silo. It's not a complete bubble so that your hardcore Fox News viewer is going to be hearing these critiques, is going to be hearing people that they know and they like saying, hey, it's time to turn the page. This guy is a loser. When Fox News cut away in the middle of his speech, I thought that was also kind of a tell. I mean, that was a very different vibe than you had in 2016 when everybody hung breathless. When even Sean Hannity is basically saying to his producer,

hey, we got to cut away from this. This is death. This is boring. You know, give me 10 seconds here. Yeah, that's a moment. That's a moment. And it's I listen, I think between that and, you know, what's happening with the McCarthy speakership, I just think it's going to be really a chaotic time for the Republican Party. And the irony of it is happening at a time when there's so much potential for the Republican Party. I mean, it looks like Biden's going to run again, which, you know, I just think is so bad for the Democratic

Party. And if that's the case, then just, you know, the only thing that can really screw that up is Donald Trump. And it looks like he's going to screw it up. The problem for the Democrats, though, is what is their plan B? So let's say that Joe Biden comes back from his victory lap and says, OK, you know what? I've accomplished everything I'm going to accomplish. I, like Nancy Pelosi, am going to pass the torch. What is the scenario that is better for Democrats than Joe Biden right now? Oh, I think there's lots of them. I mean, Kamala Harris. No, not Harris. But like Aggression Whitmer, get a, you know, a Midwest woman governor.

But could she win a primary? Could Whitmer win a primary? Sure. Why not? Yeah. Absolutely. I think she'll be bearish on that. Okay, so we're talking about the media. That's, you know, one big aspect. What about the donor class? This also seems to be an emerging story that some of the mega donors are backing away. That strikes me as less important than the media because Trump has lots of money in the bank, not maybe personally, but he has lots of money in the bank. And of course,

he has the ability to raise it with, you know, small donors. But it is interesting that to the extent that there remains an establishment in the Republican Party, you know, the billionaire oligarch class, they appear to have gotten tired of Trump. So how significant is that? I think it's just more signals. And they're quick and they're clear. I mean, that's the thing. They're major donors. They're major Republican media outlets. They're major Republican characters in the ecosystem. They've all sent up a pretty clear flare. And that's what's surprising to me. I kind of didn it's not that I didn't expect this. I just didn't expect it so fast and so furious. No, and the downstream effects are already beginning to be apparent. So for example, an organization like Club for Growth,

which had been very anti-Trump and then suddenly became very, very pro-Trump and is now back to being anti-Trump. With groups like that, you always have to ask, okay, so what is the money trail? Who's pulling the string here? And who's changed their mind about all of this? And that applies to all of these organizations that may appear to be disconnected, but generally do answer to their master's voices. So we have all of that. What do you make of the polls? Because, okay, so we have the media, we have the donor class. Obviously, the key here are the primary voters. We are getting a series of polls suggesting erosion of support. And, you know, several have shown DeSantis leading Trump. Do you believe that? Are they reliable polls? What do you think is happening?

Well, first of all, on the whole money donor thing, yes. Just watch the drift of the grift. The drift of the grift, right. That'll be a good signal. I, you know, listen, I'm skeptical about any polling anymore because it's been, you know, it's been at least a decade before I actually met a real human being who answered a poll. So there's lots of evidence to give oxygen to the skepticism. But listen, I think there's trend lines that hold up that show that there's a real appetite for

an alternative to Donald Trump. The problem is, as strong as that appetite is, there is also that 30% who won't ever go anywhere. And that's the problem. I mean, there's a decided group of Republicans who see the writing on the wall, and there's a decided group that will never see the writing on the wall. And that's the problem. I'm interested to get your take on this, because I think there are a lot of people who are engaging in wish casting who think that, OK, so Trump is running again. But when the indictments come down, that's going to derail him. That will be the end of Trump.

I actually have a contrarian take on that, that's going to derail him. That will be the end of Trump. I actually have a contrarian take on that, that Donald Trump is looking at that thinking, that's the one thing that will get me back my mojo. The moment those come down, then I am the martyr. I am the victim. They are coming for you. And the base will rally around me. Everybody will be forced to rally around me again. What do you think? What will the impact of the indictments be on Trump's prospects to get the nomination? I'm with you 100 percent. I mean, just look back to the Mar-a-Lago, quote, raid when, you know, DeSantis was getting a lot of fuel at that moment. And then suddenly there was kind of this, you know, rally toward back to Trump. He's all about

grievance and all about conspiracy and all about rallying the base to say, you know, they're coming for you, but they got it, but they're going through me to get to you. Any prosecution for Trump himself and for Trump acolytes is evidence of a witch hunt. And so these prosecutions will, I think, only fuel the fire for Trump and for his base. And by the way, lots of people I know just, you know, sort of doom scroll on the Trump legal front thinking, you know, this is going to be the one to get him. But I'll remind them that, you know, first of all, he's the master of running out legal clocks on all these things. And not only that, but I also remind them that none of these legal entanglements will stop him or even slow him down. And I'll just put as exhibit a 1920 Eugene Debs. You remember he ran for president from prison. So there's no legal scenario that's going to stop

Trump from running. The only scenario that makes a difference is if in the minds of Republicans, the indictment clicks together with the electability question. And there becomes a consensus that, look, whether this is fair or unfair, we don't want to roll into the 2024 election with a nominee who's under indictment. We should go with a winner. But again, those theoretical things, I think, tend to get to get trumped by the gut emotion. I mean, isn't that kind of the heart of the the allegiance that he has? It's not anything he says. It's not any policy. It's just an emotional bond and emotional bonds are unbreakable. That's exactly right. And it's a tribe, man.

And they're going to rally to him. And the more you attack him, the more they're going to rally because they feel like it's not just attacking him, it's attacking them. And so that's why that fundamental base for Trump is so strong and will never go anywhere. And the more you attack them, the more they rally. Although I will say to your point, it's not a bad message for anybody else but Trump to say, unindicted. Yeah, or if somebody else say it for them. Okay, so Mark, you traveled all around the country for the circus, you know, talking to people, watching these races, attending events. What was the most interesting thing that you saw in retrospect? What was the most interesting episode? Well, one of the things that struck me about this election, Charlie, is just how you have to be really careful go around the country and get boots on the ground, which, which we do a ton of on the circus to say, you know, listen, I'm,

I'm on the ground here and let's just take New Hampshire, for example. And, you know, I went and saw a Maggie Hassan event and it was the sleepiest thing I'd seen in a long time, you know, at this strip mall campaign headquarters, which you've seen thousands of. It's just a classic. But there were 30 people there about to go out and put out yard signs. And then I went to this Bolduc event, and it was this rampaging town hall, and people were on fire. And he just gave this rousing speech. And if you just gone to those two events and tried to gauge what was going to happen based on sort of the excitement and of, you know, what was happening on the ground, you'd say, God, Don Bullock's going to win this election. Same thing in Arizona, right? I mean,

the same kind of thing. And so what it told me is that you got to really be careful about even what you see yourself with your own eyes, because I think this was an election where voters showed that they were very discerning. And Democrats and independents and soft Republicans, you know, they may not have been jumping around in the aisles, but they were very committed. They were very serious. We saw a lot of split ticket voting. So I thought it was a very encouraging election from that point of view, just in the sense that people, man, they dug deep on this one. They were determined. You know, they weren't seduced by crowds or seduced by the polls or the media.

You know, all these narratives that were going around, people just said, you know what? I am thinking hard about this and I'm going to express myself in a way that is contrary to the narrative that's out there. So how much of that explains that shift in the conventional hive mind in the week before the election, that this was going to be a big red wave? Because I'll be honest with you, if I had gone to that New Hampshire event or if I had gone to one of the Katie Hobbs versus Carrie Lake events, I would have come back and said, man, the Republicans are just going to sweep. I mean, the energy out here, the excitement, it is tremendous. So how much of that was seeing the kind of thing that you saw there, which turned out to be misleading, but which sounds very powerful? Well, it was

powerful. I mean, you had sort of a number of factors going on. First of all, you had history. Second of all, you had polls. Third of all, you had actual events on the ground. All three of those things, you know, seemed like the Republican Party was on fire. So there was really nothing out there to dissuade you from that. Right. You're sort of looking for evidence to say, well, what's contrary to the this? What was going on? What was everybody missing? I mean, how could Katie Hobbs have run such a shitty, boring campaign and won? How could Maggie Hassan have had these low energy things and then just blow Moldav out? Yeah. I think that what's really encouraging about this is that the fundamental message is that the message matters. You know, it's not just a highly gifted, electric, television-friendly candidate like Kerry Lake, who everybody thought was going to be

the second coming of Donald Trump or Ronald Reagan or pick your favorite, you know, against a pretty sleepy candidate and Katie Hobbs. But the thing that's interesting to me continually, Charlie, about American politics is that nothing happens until it does. You know, everything we predict is based on past behavior.

And then something happens that's never happened before. We elected a black president. We elected a real estate billionaire or millionaire from New York. And nobody, you know, that had never happened before and couldn't happen. And then it did happen. And I think one of the things that happened in this election, I mean, first of all, you had the Dobbs decision, I think, which was important in the sense that the conventional wisdom in the history was that a party elects a president, they have a couple of years in power and making decisions, and then in the midterms, voters want to pull them back because they've overreached. In this election, this was different

because you had another branch of government, not the executive branch, but the judicial branch overreaching in the mind of voters. So in this election, rather than reacting to the executive branch in power, they were reacting to a different branch of government who they saw as Republicans being in the majority, which they are on the court. And they reacted to that. So that, again, that's just kind of an, you know, hopefully we're a little bit of an artificial intelligence machine and we learn more each election and hopefully this election, that was one of the lessons. Well, Republicans in this election seem to think that this election, that one of the models there was, you know, Trump's celebrity, you know, let's run with celebrities, let's run with famous people, let's turn it into theater, the rallies and the rock, that this is what politics has become, right? You know, let's go with Dr. Oz, let's go with Herschel Walker, you know, let's go

with the Kerry Lakes and everything. And they were pretty confident that would work, and it did not, as you point out. Substance isn't dead in American politics, what I'm getting at. I think that's a really key point. Substance, voters said substance matters. And, you know, when I got tasked by George W. Bush to do the media first presidential campaign, I was really excited for about 10 seconds and then just petrified because, you know, it was just way beyond anything I'd ever done before. And it was a huge responsibility. And it scared the hell out of me at first.

And so I went around and I kissed all the rings of any living person. You know, they've been part of the Reagan team or any of the other presidential teams that were still around. And I went back and kind of studied, went to all the libraries and studied the film back to the advent of television. And I studied kind of the evolutions of communications and presidential communications. And it was very interesting. And I used to do a whole hour long presentation about kind of the evolution of media

in American politics. And it goes through phases, right? You can see something works for a while, and then the voters get used to it, and then they kind of adapt and, you know, the campaigns do something different to try and appeal to voters. And again, you just kind of see these different phases of communications that work for a while and then they don't because voters get used to it. And, but the, the most effective development is that, you know, voters sort of got used to the tricks. They sort of understand and said, you know, we have this first amendment in America and politicians can say anything and it doesn't have to be truthful. So we're skeptical. And so what happened, you know, over the advent of the last couple of decades is that increasingly there became a premium and power to just the fundamental notion of authenticity. In other words, oh, this this this is real. This person, there's not some Wizard of Oz thing. There's not some curtain, there's not some people telling her what to say.

And that was a big part of the appeal for George W. Bush was that he was very authentic. Even if you just didn't agree with him, you'd sort of say, well, he's a very authentic person. And when I got tasked to do the video for the introduction at the convention, I did this film and we filmed this one part where he mangled what he was trying to say.

And so I did it a couple more times until he got it right. And then we went in to edit the film and then we got to that point and we all laughed at it and took it out and put in the perfect line. And then I said, wait a minute, leave in the screw up.

And Karl Rove and everybody, they're like, what are you doing doing McKenna? Are you crazy? We're paying for this and you're going to put in a mistake. I said, yeah. And they said, why? I said, cause it's funny. It's authentic. It's real. And we left it in and I think it worked because, and by the way, I said, let's just lower the bar of any expectation. This guy's going to be the great, great order. But that's the lesson I think in Pennsylvania,

that's the thing that people said, Fetterman, I mean, what a lesson that is. This guy had a stroke, for God's sakes, had a very tough debate. I was up there and conventional wisdom, you say, there's no way in hell this guy could win. But he was authentic. I mean, you don't get any more perfectly Pennsylvania than this six foot eight guy in cargo shorts who had a health problem. And people could just relate to that against a guy who was this, as you said, the celebrity guy. And they just, no matter the power of that celebrity, people said, you know what, I'm going to go with a guy who I think is more like me. Okay. So speaking of celebrities and speaking of candidate quality, there's still one Senate seat out there.

We're now turning our attention to Georgia. Like a lot of Republicans were hoping that you wouldn't have this Republican civil war breaking out completely before the December 6th runoff election. But I don't know whether you caught this, this one little sound bite. I'm not going to be able to play the whole one. Is this the vampire sound bite. I'm not going to be able to play the whole one. Is this the vampire sound bite? Yeah, I am still trying to figure out what goes on up in Herschel Walker's Belfry. So yeah, let me just play this. This is the GOP's finest.

Herschel Walker gives a campaign speech on a vampire movie he was watching. Oh, did you ever watch a stupid movie late at night, hoping it's going to get better, don't get better, but you keep watching it anyway? Because the other night I was watching this movie I was watching this movie called Fright Night, Freak Night, or some type of night, but it was about vampires. I don't know if you know vampires and cool people. Are they not? But I'm going to tell you something that I found out. A werewolf

can kill a vampire. Did you know that? I never knew that, so I didn't want to be a vampire anymore. I wanted to be a werewolf. But then anyway, as I'm watching this movie, and they can tell how stupid it is because it's one in the morning. So I'm watching my TV of these kids watching their TV of vampire kill on their TV. So you know it's kind of stupid, but I'm still watching though. As I'm

watching this show, what was funny, these kids had a vampire in their attic at their house. So they were watching their TV. Now I'm watching my TV. Are they watching their TV? Or they see the vampire killer on their TV? So they win this contest to bring this actor. Now y'all got to stay with me.

Bring this actor who's a vampire killer from their TV to get rid of this real life vampire in their attic. So if this actor comes to their home, he got all the rights. I can't take any more of there. I just, what the? So Charlie, here's what I would do if I were a Warnock campaign. I would just take all the money we have left, cut that into a 60 second ad and just run that for the rest of the campaign. I mean, do you remember the, uh,

the other kind of famous similar soundbite that he did was about the, the cow jumping the fence. Oh yeah. Which I also didn't understand the point of that. Well, well, exactly. I mean, first of all, what metaphor are you are you trying to make here? And that was also right in the middle of all the the you know, the the the womanizing, you know, abortion allegations. So the last thing you want to be talking about is, you know, cows jumping the fence and humping cows.

And yet that's what he chose to talk about. Well, OK, so his inner circle is thinking, OK, this is crazy. This guy has no business running, but it's authentic. So let's put this in the Mark McKinnon authentic box over here. You know, evaluate it. Is our voters looking at that and going, OK, yeah, but, you know, that's who he is. Yeah, I guess this could be the test case for authenticity has its limits. I mean, this might be one where you say. We don't want that authentic. We just want a little less authentic. Authentically crazy.

Yeah, it's the interesting kind of dynamic. I just imagine trying to be an advisor in that campaign. Can you imagine what that's like? Because, I mean, the one thing about Walker is he's like, it's pretty clear that he doesn't take a lot of direction. He kind of does what he wants to do, obviously. Okay. So this race is still out there. What do you think is going to happen? Because I mean, there was one point where you could certainly understand the rational decision that Republicans made saying, okay, this guy's nuts. He's crazy, but he's going to be a vote. And you know, we have to support him if we want to get the majority in the Senate.

Well, the majority is gone. Yeah, that rationalization for voting for this guy is gone. It's still a Senate seat. So does all of this change the dynamics of what's going to happen in Georgia? I think it does very much. I mean, that was going to be the compelling rationale for to juice up turnout on the Republican side. And and to your point, it's like, OK, he's not a great candidate, but he's going to he's going to affect the balance of power. Well, now he's not a good candidate and he doesn't affect the balance of

power. So if I'm a Republican, why in the hell should I get off my ass and go vote? And you also have the complexity of Donald Trump now. Right. They're fighting that whole thing now. Does Trump, you know, come help? Does he not? And they're having to deal of Donald Trump now. They're fighting that whole thing now. Does Trump, you know, come help? Does he not? And then they're having to deal with Donald Trump again. So it's a bad stew. And, you know, he may ultimately pull it off. But, I mean, there's obviously a lot of goodwill for just Hershel Walker in general, given his legacy.

But I'd rather be a Democrat than a Republican in that race right now. Yeah, the morale boost seems to have gone to the Democrats. So speaking of the Senate, you know, yesterday, Mitch McConnell survived a rather weak challenge to his leadership. And again, this is part of this Republican Civil War that just broke out within a week of the midterm elections. And of all people, Rick Scott said, no, having been the guy that actually ran these Senate campaigns, I'm going to run for leader. He loses 37 to 10. You know, a lot of that has to do with the internal politics of the Senate caucus. But Donald Trump sitting down in Mar-a-Lago, the leader of the Republican Party, the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party, has been saying that he wanted Mitch McConnell's head on a platter over

and over and over again. He's attacked him. He said he should be impeached, whatever that means. He's mocked his wife. Clearly among the Republicans in office that Donald Trump despises, Mitch McConnell is at or near the top of that list. And the Republican caucus voted 37 to 10 to reelect Mitch McConnell. I mean, at some level, aren't elected Republicans in the Senate saying, fuck you, Donald Trump? Oh, 100 percent. And that's the ongoing mystery is that or conundrum really is that, they know how problematic Trump was going to be, is going forward. And so they're making the long-term bets on something they think is much more stable, which is Mitch McConnell. And he's got the proof in the history to show for it.

So I just think that dynamic going forward is going to be extraordinary. Donald Trump will have Kevin McCarthy on a very, very short leash, and Mitch McConnell owes him absolutely nothing. So how this plays out, well, it's going to be a circus, Mark. It is. No lack of material. Season eight coming at you right around the corner. All right, Mark McKinnon, thank you so much for joining me on The Bulwark Podcast. You can see Showtime's The Circus Inside, the greatest political show on earth, which occasionally features our own Tim Miller. Mark, it is always great talking with you. Kick it hard.

Carry on regardless. The Bulwark Podcast is produced by Katie Cooper with audio production by Jonathan Seary. I'm Charlie Sykes. Thank you for listening to today's Bulwark Podcast. And we'll be back tomorrow to do this all over again.