The Bulwark Podcast - The Bulwark: Live from New Orleans

Episode Date: October 26, 2023

Sarah, Mona, and Sonny join Tim in The Big Easy to talk about new Speaker Mike Johnson, Biden, Israel, and left-wing antisemitism.

If it's a flat or a squeal, a wobble or peel, your tread's worn down or you need a new wheel, wherever you go, you can get it from our Tread Experts. Ensure each winter trip is a safe one for your family. Enjoy them for years with the Michelin X-Ice Snow Tire. Get a $50 prepaid MasterCard with select Michelin tires. Find a Michelin Tread Experts dealer near you at treadexperts.ca slash locations. From tires to auto repair, we're always there. TreadExperts.ca It's October 26, 2023. I'm Charlie Sykes. Welcome to the Bulwark Podcast. We're going to be doing

something a little bit different today. We've been on COVID lockdown here in Wisconsin, but the rest of the Bulwark team was down in the Big Easy last night for a wide-ranging discussion of everything from our fifth-string speaker, Mike Johnson, to Joe Biden, Israel, anti-Semitism on the left. So today's podcast is going to be a replay of last night's conversation. Hey, a quick reminder, if you want to come to one of our Bulwark events, the next one is scheduled in Washington, D.C. on November 16th. I'm going to be joined by special guest Brian Stelter and the rest of the Bulwark crew. We'll also be on hand to have a wide-ranging conversation, again, on the 2024 election and the news of the day. If you'd like to join us in Washington, D.C. on November 16th, just go to the Bulwark website for more information.

In the meantime, enjoy this conversation from last night in New Orleans. Hey, everybody. How y'all doing? New Orleans, Louisiana, not too bad, right? Pretty good. French Quarter. How many locals we got here tonight? We got some locals. What's up? All my people back there. Team Sarah. Team Sarah. We have some focus groupies in the crowd.

Any focus groupies? Right up front. Thank you. Hope someone's wearing the T-shirt. My lady's right there. All right. We got Sarah Longmore. That's Sonny Bunch. You might know him.

He's at the Bullwark. And at the end, we have Mona Charon. So there's this thing about Mona Charon. We're not going to age anybody, but it's an interesting fact about Mona Charon. How many New York Times bestsellers do you have? Two. That's more than anybody else on the stage. So I'm just saying, hypothetically, should another book of mine come out,

it's very important that everybody in here gets it so that I can get to even here at the bulwark. All right. Boy, we had an interesting day today, huh? Mike Johnson, we have a speaker. I guess we have some fresh things for everybody to talk about. I'm interested in everybody's opinion, but I want to, how many people, is there anybody here that like really knows Mike Johnson? Do we have any like, oh yeah, we got a couple. We got a couple. Okay. I'm finding you after for the oppo. Here's the thing about mike johnson uh he is a uh um a rabid evangelical

conservative very similar to maybe your old boss rick santorum i remember i remember you like to ring out that i appreciate that uh so he had some very rick santorum qualities uh he was the like one of the most active supporters of the Stop the Steal effort, including something that our friends at Republican Accountability PAC uncovered today, which was he was even pushing the Dominion voting machine conspiracy,

among other things. But he just, I stole a line from you today. Do you know? Have you heard it? No. So he's kind of like Patrick McHenry in the streets with Jim Jordan in the sheets. you know? Have you heard it? No. So he like, he is, he's kind of like Patrick McHenry in the streets, but Jim Jordan in the sheets. So he looks nice. You know, like he looks like he just wants to like, he looks like he drinks milk with a straw and like goes to church and gets there early and sits in the first row of the pew and, like, he was the speech debate captain.

So was it just meant to be, do you think, for Mike Johnson? Do you think he is, like, representing what the Republican Party is now? Or how do you think we ended up here? Okay, here's what happened. And actually it's really important that people understand this because this is what's happening more broadly. Why is he the speaker right now? Because people were exhausted.

They were tired of fighting over this. And so they grabbed a backbencher that they thought they could bring to consensus. And sometimes I say this at the end of every show, but I'm going to say it at the beginning this time, that it is a reason why eternal vigilance on democracy is so important, because when you are tired is when terrible things happen and you let people through, right? And even though you're off in a reason, it doesn't sound like anybody knows who this guy was or realizes he was a congressman, but it doesn't matter who he is, actually. Because what it tells us isn't that much about him. It tells us about the rest of them. And we were having a little bit of a love fest

over Ken Buck last week, right? Because Ken Buck... Seems like Ken Buck needs a therapist. Well, Ken Buck was all over the TVs telling us about how you cannot support somebody who was out there saying that the election was rigged, that was endorsing January 6th. And this guy was like the person behind the scenes. He is the, yeah, the clean cut Jim Jordan who was organizing the whole thing. He organized the

Ken Paxton, you know, the Texas AG letter where they were going to try to, you know, throw out the votes of a bunch of people in the state. So it showed us again who these guys are and the fact that while we all thought there was a brief moment last week that the center was holding, it caved the second they thought they had it. It also shows it was just personal about Jim Jordan. It was about Jim Jordan.

It wasn't about January 6th. It wasn't about the principled stand. Mona, where should people in the crowd panic level be about Mike Johnson? Like, what is your assessment? Is it like, this is kind of a guy that was faking it, going, get along, or is this like the real kind of danger? Yeah, so there are two ways to look at this, as I see it. On the one hand, it would have been 10 years ago inconceivable that somebody who tried to steal an election and who was an election denier would have been anywhere near the Speaker's gavel.

And the fact that now this was the bare minimum, this was the the entrance exam that you had to pass to get the job, is to say the 2020 election was stolen, Donald Trump has given me his little pat on the shoulder, I'm okay, and that's the only way that you can get to be Speaker in this Republican House. All right, that is pretty grim. The other side of this, though, is that he has just inherited the worst job in the world. And so the caucus has not changed.

They settled on this guy because they couldn't bear the humiliation of dragging this on any longer. Sarah's right, they're tired. They're exhausted. And the country was getting exhausted and they were worried that maybe the voters might just like suddenly notice that they can't govern. They didn't notice. Really?

Have you done groups? Nobody noticed? I'm sorry. Nobody noticed? There's like something going on out there. And for 23 days, they didn't notice a little? They don't know what the Speaker of the House does. Has anyone ever noticed the House? No.

So P.J. O'Rourke had a great line. He said, the Republicans are the party who say that government doesn't work, and then they get elected and prove it. Sonny, I have one. I think that there are a lot of medium-term things to be low-level concerned about when it comes to Mike Johnson, we can talk about. I think there's one acute short-term concern,

which is Ukraine. So he voted against both of the last funding efforts. There was some talk today that, well, I'll believe when I see it, but there was some talk today that they came to some sort of backdoor, backdeal agreement on the CR to avoid the shutdown fight. So he doesn't like become speaker and then it's like, hey, shutdown fight. So it seems like they're going to solve that. But Ukraine wasn't part of that talk. Biden is out there, I think, smartly offered and said, hey, we're going to give $100 billion, some to Ukraine, some to Israel,

some to the border. There are a couple other things in there. Are there enough of your people left? Are there enough free beacon neocons left to pressure this guy just to at least get us through one more cycle of Ukraine? Or how worried are you? I'm pretty worried. I don't, I don't see, look, you mentioned that there was some chatter about him saying, well, you know, Russia is a real threat. And there's this weird thing going on right now where some of these guys are like, yeah, you know, at least Ukraine makes sense

because of Russia. You know, we don't want to be involved with the Israel-Gaza stuff at all. Like, we don't want any part of that. But, you know, the Ukraine. So, like, there's almost a, the two sides are, one side is playing both of these conflicts against each other, which is terribly disappointing to me. Like, as you say, I am one of the last unrepentant neocons. I just want to arm all of them to fight all of their wars. You know, that would be the preferred outcome here. So... What about Azerbaijan?

Should we be throwing them some weapons, too? I don't know which side of the aisle we're supposed to be on. I got to read up on that one. That one, but possibly. The one good thing I have, Sonny, which you'll appreciate, is I saw one good fact about Mike Johnson today I consumed a lot of information about Mike Johnson and I saw a single good

fact that I liked and that was from a MAGA person tweeted unhappily that he receives a lot of money from Raytheon and Northrop Grumman and I was like okay alright we can work with this.

Maybe the military industrial complex can come through for Ukraine one more time. I don't know. I'll balance that by saying that I saw Matt Gates' appearance on Stephen Bannon's show where he's like, this is a win for us. This is a win for us and anyone who doesn't see it as a win for us, the MAGA crowd is just

they don't know what they're looking at. I'll take Matt Gates at his word. Isn't it so annoying that Matt Gaetz has been right a lot lately? Matt Gaetz was out there talking about how the impeachment thing was a sham and how Kevin McCarthy's an empty suit and how the MAGAs have taken over the house. Like, God, that fucking big forehead

has a couple of good points in it. It's a little frustrating. I mean, Matt can tell you what's happening in the house. Matt Gaetz sucks, but he wants to be ascendant. Right, he really sucks. But he does want everybody to understand that they are ascendant in the House, that they are ascendant as a political force, and he's just correct about that. I think people were overreading the rejection of Jim Jordan as a rejection of MAGA

and, like, well, Trump, you know, doesn't have the juice. And, like, Trump went and know, doesn't have the juice. And like Trump went and made sure he proved he had the juice by emmer lasting four hours and then getting a bona fide election denier to run the House. I will say on the upside, there's a lot of the downsides are very real. If like we don't pass Ukraine funding, we don't do the things that we need to do. The upside is I was one thing, the one good thing about Jim Jordan was that it was at least truth in advertising. It was like, this is who the party is, this is who's running it now.

We don't have Kevin McCarthy with his haircut, making people the wolf in sheep's clothing, putting a nice face on the election denialism and everything else. And so this guy, this is who they are. This is who they wanted. And like now we'll have him to run in every swing district in Congress in 2024. I think that's true. Isn't this, but I'm curious what the voters think of this, because on the one hand, he's, he, nobody knows who he is. He's not Nancy Pelosi. You can't be like, look at this guy. On the other hand, can't Democrats say, like,

this guy wants to ban abortion at the federal level. This guy wants to end, you know, Ukraine funding, et cetera, et cetera. I mean, like, isn't he extreme? He wants to overturn gay marriage. Like, isn't he extreme enough that they can just pin all of that on... Yeah, that's my point. My point is, is it's true in advertising. And they don't know who he is now.

They will. They'll know who he is now. They will. They'll know who he is. Don't Shreveport my house district. That seems like that could be a winning message. I've run so many ads micro-targeted at you. Yeah, don't. Like, Mona, do you think there's something to that? Well, yeah.

So there was a debate that we all participated in. Tim, you did an interview with somebody, I'm forgetting who, but discussing whether people should have worked for Trump in order to keep the country from going off the road. Steve Hayes. Steve Hayes, thank you. Should you work for Trump to keep the country at least somewhat between the 50-yard lines?

And Tim was saying no because you gave it cover and you made it seem more normal than it really was, and it would have been better to just let Trump, you know, appoint his lunatics, and then the country would have been in real trouble, but at least the voters would have seen the reality of who Trump was. Some people said, no, you know, when it comes to national security, when it comes to the Defense Department, that's just too big a risk to take.

But when it comes to somebody like the Speaker of the House, who does not have his finger on the button, at least, I mean, he is two steps away from it, but for now, he doesn't have his finger on the button. Luckily, Kamala is still young. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, luckily for some of us. I guess I won't speak for everybody. But in this case, it really does seem like it's fine, you know, that this will allow voters to make an evaluation about

the party because the, you know, the window dressing, which was Kevin McCarthy, is gone. And it's not quite Jim Jordan. So Adam Kinzinger said something funny. He said, Johnson is Jim Jordan in drag. Kinzinger was working that line hard. I got that text too. Kinzinger is trying to be serious, Congress guy, trying to work the line into the podcast space via text message. Hey, folks, this is Charlie Sykes, host of the Bulwark podcast.

We created the Bulwark to provide a platform for pro-democracy voices on the center-right and the center-left, for people who are tired of tribalism and who value truth and vigorous yet civil debate about politics and a lot more. And every day we remind you folks, you are not the crazy ones. So why not head over to thebullwork.com and take a look around. Every day we produce newsletters and podcasts that will help you make sense of our politics and keep your sanity intact. To get a daily dose of sanity in your inbox, why not try a Bulwark Plus

membership free for the next 30 days? To claim this offer, go to thebulwark.com slash charlie. That's thebulwark.com forward slash charlie. I'm going to get through this together. I promise. If it's a flat or a squeal, a wobble or peel, your dread's worn down or you need a new wheel, I promise. Michelin tires. Find a Michelin Tread Experts dealer near you at treadexperts.ca slash locations. From tires to auto repair, we're always there, treadexperts.ca. I have one more strategic question about Mike Johnson that I'm going to get to with another special guest we have coming at the end. So I want to move on from Mike Johnson really quick and just have one moment of schadenfreude about Tom Emmer before we get to Israel. JVL wrote today about the eunuch Republicans.

I don't know if you saw this, about how Tom Emmer got his balls cut off by Donald Trump and then said, thank you, sir. I appreciate it. Like, this has been the thing that is i i know i wrote a book about this i'm supposed to know and i'm supposed to be the one that they actually like but it's the thing that's most flummoxed me it's like doesn't one of these people just want to say fuck you man like no like no i will not do this i don't i really we spent three weeks with this. And can any of the three of you, open question, explain to me why not a single one of the 220 of them said, this was my moment. I am going to go stand up and do the right thing.

And I'm going to try to create a consensus government with Hakeem Jeffries. And I'm not going to let Donald Trump make fun of me. And I'm going to call him a crazy racist lunatic. And at the end of this, Walter Isaacson is going to make sure I get some board seats from Aspen Institute donors. Like that seems like a logical thing, but not nobody. Why? Because they like being in government. They like being in the house. They don't want to have people sending them death threats because they've betrayed Donald Trump. I mean, like I can think of a lot of reasons why, because they've betrayed Donald Trump? I mean, like, I can think of a lot of reasons why. Because they're cowards. Really? Yeah, also for a lot

of these people, I'm sorry to say, they are too dumb to make a good private sector salary. And so... ... ... ... True.

So this is as good as it gets for them. And they'll hold on with their white knuckle grip. I just want to sometimes, I just sometimes fantasize, Sarah. I just like, I wish, you know, Back to the Future was real. And I want to get in the thing and fly back to 2013 and go to Tom Emmer's house in Minnesota and meet his wife with their probably dom-sub material that they have, whatever he gets into. Come on. I want to say it.

Come on. We're in New Orleans. We're in the French Quarter. And I want to say there's a very interesting shop right around the corner. I'm still meeting him. I want to take you to it. They sell some very interesting goods right around the corner if anybody's interested. And I just want to read Tom the corner if anybody's interested.

I just want to read Tom Emmer Donald Trump's tweet. And I just want to be like, this is what is going to happen. You are going to be in Congress and you are going to support a coup. You're going to support the game show host to become an autocrat and running the country without our democracy. And he's going to create a social media thing where he calls you a rhino wimp, and you are going to say thank you. And I just want to tell him that and be like, 10 years from now, this is what's going to happen.

And I think that all these guys would be like, no way. Of course they would. Never. I would never do that. But so what does Liz tell you? You and Liz hang out, don't you? Cheney? Yeah. What does she say?

Why only Liz? Well, also Adam. Look, here's the thing. Hold on. It's not just the people who are in Congress. We've been asking ourselves this question forever. I was just talking about this with some people. Behind closed doors, they all say Donald Trump is a psychopath.

Obviously. They know. It's not like... Obviously. Right? They are afraid of the threats, but a lot of it is that in the early days, people did stick their heads up. I don't know if you guys even can remember back. Remember who Jeff Flake is? I don't know. He's got a great life. He's an ambassador to Turkey. That's fine. That's fine. But no, no, no. Do you remember? He't know. He's got a great life. He's the ambassador to Turkey. That's fine. That's fine. But no, no, no. Do you remember? He's got a great life.

Sure. And he got, but he's done. He's done with the party. It's all over. He's the ambassador to Turkey. That's awesome. I'm available. I don't know if there are any Joe Biden people out here.

Whatever. Actually, the answer is they're cowards. I don't know. I don't want to sit up here and make excuses for them. It's very strange. Actually, the important part is not why they don't speak up now. Actually, it leads me to a different point, which is this.

Yeah, I know. Sarah's stronger than me. Yeah. I'm not kidding in a way. That is real true. Do you guys know Tim and I used to travel together, and we used to have to share hotel rooms as we worked for like... Very uncomfortable. Yeah.

One time he left me at a gay bar in Minnesota by myself because he just left with somebody and didn't tell me. My husband, because I'm in a covenant marriage. Like, like, like, like Johnson. Yeah. Anyway, you had something else you wanted to say? Here's the different point. The point is actually, it is the point about speaking up,

which is we are about to go into, I hate to tell you this, but it is going to be Joe Biden versus Donald Trump. Okay, that's the election we're facing. That's what's going to happen in 2024. And maybe RFK Jr., I don't know. And the test for everybody this time around, Millie and Kelly and Mattis, all of these guys sat there in the administration. They've all been talking in background on books.

They've all watched the coup happen. People are either going to say something now or they will regret it for the rest of their lives. And we will all pay the price because the only people that can really make a difference now is like, and that is like the thing that we have to demand. It's not to, we can't go back to the future. We can demand now that they speak up because like, it's the last time it's really going to matter. And like that pressure, we have to be putting them on, and we should call them cowards if they don't. Sarah, you're the expert on this, but don't you think we should wait until September of 2024,

then run a whole series of ads? If they do it now, it'll be forgotten by then. We need to hold our fire on that. Okay, so that's a strategic question. I'm actually trying to pose like a moral question, a question of what is the right thing to do and are people going to understand? So, because actually I've already heard there are people, maybe former presidents, where people are already posing the question to them, will you say something going into 2024?

And they're saying no. And we should find that unacceptable. Absolutely. Sonny's going to say something to make me mad. Can I ask one strategic question? Would that even work or would it backfire? No. Because then it becomes, look at the Uniparty coming out against Donald Trump. This is our guy. They're attacking him. These are all traitors. They're traitors to Donald Trump. What are, you know, why would we listen to these people? They took his money. They took his jobs. Like, I have about as much faith in the voters as JVL does.

Okay, guys, just on this whole thing, since you're going to stand in for JVL. I need to stand up. I'm staying in my chair. I'm cool. I'm cool. Tastes a little bit. I'm fine. How do people in the room feel about democracy?

Do we love democracy? We do. Who do you think is part of democracy? Who's doing the democracy? We are. The voters are doing the democracy. So we can't just say... The people on Bourbon Street. Yeah, all of them. The people in Mandeville. All of them. The people in Shreveport. That's right. All of them. Yeah. Houma. They're voting. I don't know what that

means, but yeah. It's not good. It's not good. They're voting at home. And so we better figure out how we are going to persuade enough of those people that Donald Trump is a sufficient enough danger, which he absolutely is. It is not like 2020 where we didn't know what he was going to do. We do know now that he'll pull us out of NATO and he will abandon Ukraine. We do know now that there will be no guardrails. None of these people will work for him. Mattis won't work for him again. You know who's going to run DOJ? Rudy Giuliani. Pardon Rudy Giuliani.

You know who's going to run the State Department? Mike Flynn. Like, just sit with it for a second and let it consume you. They make Mike get state. Let's not give it to Mike Flynn it consume you. They make Mike get staked. Let's not give it to Mike Quinn yet, okay? If it makes out there. All right. So our only, the main option, right,

is to persuade a small slice of voters who will be up for grabs and a bunch of people in their military uniforms all saying together, I agree, they can come a little bit later. My fear is, is that they're going to do one Atlantic profile or one interview and they're going to say, they're going to do one Atlantic profile or one interview,

and they're going to sign one letter with 20 people, and they're going to say, I did my duty. I said it. I said it out loud. That's not enough. We've got to tell this story over and over again. We've got to make sure voters hear it, because I want people to start getting attuned to the level of catastrophe. Can we show them?

Yeah. I hope you'll indulge me. I want to make a pedantic point. Oh, no. I love pedantic. I'm against democracy, but I am for liberal democracy. Okay?

So democracy is what they had and have in Hungary, where the majority gets to take away the rights of the minority. You know, 51%. So, you know, your religion doesn't get protected, your free speech doesn't get protected, because the majority has decided it wants its way. So we don't have that. We have a liberal democracy where the rights of minorities are protected

and where we have rule of law and where we have limitations on government. That's what I'm for. Thank you very much. Same, same, same. I like liberal democracy, too. I've been trying to take back liberal. I know Sonny Kloseris.

I've been trying to take back liberal for our people, you know, because the lefties, they want progressive. I'm like, let them have it. I'm going to be like the British liberals. You know, that's nice. But that's kind of the same in Australia, the Aussies, the liberals. Anyway, for another day. I want to show them.

I want to go back to Mark Milley and these guys. Mark Milley's been good. I want to go back to Mattis and these fellas, Condi and the people that have been hanging out with Walter and Aspen and not really doing a whole lot. No offense, Walter. What I'm wondering is, can we show them Charlie? Charlie did a good YouTube video the other day. Charlie's not here. He's going to listen to this, actually. Can everybody say hi to Charlie really quick? Hey, Walter. What I'm wondering is, can we show them Charlie? Charlie did a good YouTube video the other day.

Charlie's not here. He's going to listen to this, actually. Can everybody say hi to Charlie really quick? Hey, Charlie. Hey. We miss you. Charlie did a good YouTube video the other day, and it showed Brian Stelter telling Jenna Ellis,

it was like, you are going to regret this someday. He said in 10 to 20 years. I know. He said 10 to 20 years. I was like, you are going to regret this. Because I just watched it, and I was like, it was a lot sooner than that. Yeah, you're going to regret this to 20 years. Oh, he said 10 to 20 years? I was like, you're going to regret this. Because I just watched it, and I was like, it was a lot sooner than that. Yeah, you're going to regret this in 20 years.

And then the next video is her crying in court, which I did enjoy and watched a few times. You'll be shocked to hear that JBL was not satisfied with the tears. He wanted more pain. When I was talking about how much I enjoyed that, he was like not not enough pain for her but anyway um classic jvl but um can we not show that video to these guys and just be like here's where you're you're gonna be you're gonna be crying in the camps in three years if you don't talk now like this is your moment to avoid regretting it like what what? What knobs and levers can we pull to get them out of the Stanford ivory tower?

I don't think we've done... Jack Smith seems like he's on that. Jack is? Yeah. I don't know that we can do anything about it, but he seems to be grinding. Here's what I picture. In a few months, Sarah Longwell is going to place some calls, and they are going to take your calls. We're talking about Mattis and all the people who were in the Trump White House. And you're going to say, we want you to cut some ads,

and all together if possible, but individually if necessary. And you're going to look into the camera, and you're going to say, I sat with Donald Trump. I served him. I was not anti-Trump at first, but because of what I saw,

he can never hold that office again. And Sarah's going to make that happen. I really believe that, actually. Thank you. Future me sounds awesome. I can do some good stuff. I'm going to start carrying around a paper bag for the next year.

It's kind of crazy that we're at this level of where we're relying on Jim Mattis to cut a TV ad to save us from a Donald Trump autocracy. It's a little bit too tenuous for my taste, I guess. Wish we were in a different place. If it's a flat or a squeal, a wobble or peel, your tread's worn down or you need a new wheel, wherever you go, you can get it from our tread experts. Ensure each winter trip is a safe one for your family. Enjoy them for years with a Michelin X-Ice snow tire. Get a $50 prepaid MasterCard with select Michelin tires.

Find a Michelin tread experts dealer near you at treadexperts.ca slash locations. From tires to auto repair, we're always you at treadexperts.ca slash locations. From tires to auto repair, we're always there. Treadexperts.ca I want to go into another tenuous situation. We're just doing uplifting talk here in the French Quarter. Nothing but positivity here. Joe Biden was talking about Israel today. So I went to GW as much as I own, as much as I rep LSU.

I actually graduated from GW. We can talk about that after. But there was not some great stuff happening at my alma mater this week. And it's one thing to be like, oh, some college student signed a letter. It's like another thing when some college students are like praising our Hamas martyrs

on the side of the library at campus. That's not good. Projecting it onto the library. Projecting it on the side. That's not good, to say the least. And some of the numbers about young people have been bad. And what Rashida Tlaib has done has been bad. And we can talk about all that.

But I just want to start with, Joe Biden has been quite good on this. Quite, quite, quite, quite good. And today, he was asked about, yesterday, KJP gave a very bad answer about anti-Semitism. But today, the actual president was asked about the deaths in Palestine. Legitimate question. And he expressed empathy about the deaths, but also at the same time said, I actually also don't believe the information that Hamas is putting out.

And a lot of lefty folks were like, really pissed about this. And I thought it was like, people are always like, where is Joe Biden's sister soldier moment? And I was like, Joe Biden's standing in front of the White House and saying, I do not believe the Hamas numbers based on the intel we have. It's causing

him some trouble. And so anyway, I guess my first question for Mona is how you assess how he's been doing. And then I want to talk about the politics of it. Okay, so Biden has been magnificent. The last two weeks have been the best of his presidency. I mean, he has inhabited the office in a way that he has not been able to do until now, and it's been really terrific. Now, here's the thing. On the left, it's a different problem. So we've talked a lot at the Bulwark. We, you know, focus on the problem of the authoritarianism and radicalism that is filtering up from the grassroots. And it comes from the people. Now, they are fed a lot of crap by the conservative media. But it has created a problem of the grassroots that then the politicians and the elites. You're talking about the right. I'm talking about the right.

Politicians and elites have responded to this. They feel like in order to make their constituents happy, they have to get more and more authoritarian and crazy. On the left, it's quite different. On the left, it's not bubbling up from the bottom. You stop your average Democrat on the street and say, what do you think about the Israel-Palestine thing? And they're going to say, well, I mean, of course, Israel has a right to defend herself. And I really feel for the Palestinians. It's an awful thing.

They're not going to be saying, go Hamas, okay? But the elites on the left are really corrupted. And they are the ones who are cheerleading for mass murder and not seeming to get that, you know, that they've got a moral screw loose if they can see what Hamas did two weeks ago and not respond with moral revulsion. Yeah, so here's my question. Either one of you can take this, or both. I don't mean to be a Joe Biden fangirl on this. All of us were pretty harsh about the Afghanistan.

So I've not been 100% with him on foreign policy stuff all the time. But shouldn't Biden be getting more credit for this because of what Mona's talking about, right? It would be easy to stand with Israel if everyone in his coalition was lockstep with him. But because this is the one issue where there are people that disagree with him, some people with good faith disagree, some people have some kind of crazy views, disagree. Like, shouldn't he be getting more credit with center, center-right folks because he has been so stalwart on this?

Well, this is, look, like you, I was a little bit worried after Afghanistan, you know, and, but this is the perfect opportunity for Biden to make the case, you know, the Republicans have embraced their crazies. They've embraced their crazies. I represent the middle 60% of the country, the 60% that tells the pollsters, yeah, we support Israel's right to exist and defend itself. And, and yeah, I think you're totally right. I mean, like Mona, I have been shocked and vaguely appalled by a lot of the talk, but it's also been revelatory in a very real way because when academics say things like, well, what did you think decolonization was going to

look like? Like, yeah, I knew what it was going to look like in the context of Israel. It was going to look like this. That's horrible. That's why I don't support it. And that's why Joe Biden doesn't support it. And that's like, it's the best case for Joe Biden is here is a guy who is maintaining the United States's role in the national order or the international order. And he's doing a great job at it. So isn't this, isn't this what, like, so it's not just Biden, actually. It's Dan Goldman, who I had on the podcast Sunday. My buddy Peter Hamby

wrote an article that had Alyssa Slotkin and Jake Auchincloss and Richie Torres. Like, aren't they doing all the things that all of the anti-anti-Trump or never-Trump Republicans

asked Republican leaders to do? Like, saying to the people on their own side who they think are being extreme, like, you're being extreme and crazy. Aren't they all doing that? I think so. I think it's getting, yeah, maybe not all, but also like, I want to say two things. One, the situation in Israel is complicated. Condemning Hamas is not. It's like a very simple thing. People should be able to condemn terrorists. And I think that Joe Biden... I got just really quick. I'm sorry. I got a tweet today that was like,

you centrists think that it's so... You're being so logical by opposing Hamas terrorism. And I was like, yeah, it's really hard to oppose Hamas, think Bibi has not been that great, and also not want Palestinian kids to die. That is like, woo, we're scary centrists. Watch out. Watch out. Anyway, sorry. Go ahead. From a political standpoint, look, I don't know if Joe Biden's going to get credit, or maybe he'll start to get some grudging credit along the way. This is one of those situations where like, it doesn't matter really if he's getting credit right now. What he should do is, Joe Biden clearly believes right now in what he's saying. It is his finest moment because he has moral clarity

at the moment. He's speaking from his heart every time he does it. He's speaking like a normal person that is empathetic. And as a result, it will transcend some of the age concerns. He will look like a leader. It will either give him that. If it doesn't, nothing else will. This is his best opportunity to show that he still has the ability to lead this country, to be a good commander in chief. I thought that Oval Office speech was the best thing I've ever seen from him. And I hope he continues to behave this way. And, like, here's the thing. He should just do the right thing and, like, let what happens happen.

Because he knows it's the right thing and he believes in it. So that was a really nice talk. Really nice. So I'm saying there's a chance. know, I'm saying there's a chance. You don't think the voters are going to care about this. You don't think that they're going to give you credit. I mean, I will just tell you that, like, this is not great. We've asked of the voters lately, both about Israel and about Ukraine for a long time.

Like, swing voters, like, they just really have internalized this idea that like we shouldn't do anything abroad that we that we and we have lots of problems here we should take care of our own border we should spend money here uh this is the this is the argument republicans have been pumping into the ecosystem now for a long time and frankly it wasn't just this was also something that you heard a lot of democrats say back in the day back when I wasn't, I was a much less big fan of them. All right. We got a special guest coming up here in a minute, but I want to play my favorite game. Is everybody ready? It's president or jail. Okay. We go around and everybody tells us how likely you think it is going to be that two years from now,

when we gather here in the free city of New Orleans, that Donald Trump will be either president. I'm going to give you time to think about this by asking the question in the longest way possible. He'll either be president, he'll either be in jail, or neither. None of the above. And I'm going to lump in being on house arrests and Mar-a-Lago with the Cougars as being part of jail. So jail or house arrest, president or neither.

My current spot is 45% president. No, no, 45% president, 40% neither, 15% jail. Moving down the panel. I'll swap your top two. So 45% neither, 40% president, 15% jail. All right. A little jail hope. What about president from jail?

Oh, president from jail. That's a possibility. Think it'll happen. I keep wondering, if he goes to jail, what does the Secret Service do exactly? Do they say, like, don't mess with him? To the guy who's got tattoos all over his body and no teeth? I don't know. Okay, so before we get to that that this leads to a follow-up

question though are we is your hope at least on the way up and all these flips in Georgia we got to get Fonny Willis some love right like it's good it's feeling real is there is anyone else feeling a little more are you feeling a little more hope anyone on so look this was not a great week for Defendant Trump. I mean, you've got, you know, all of these flippers, and you have to love Trump, who keeps saying, you know, I know about flippers, you know, as if he's a mafia don, but whatever. And then we only have ABC reporting

that Mark Meadows has a deal with Jack Smith. So it hasn't been picked up by anybody else. So we'll hold our fire on that one. Meadows doesn't really seem like he's made of Stern stuff to me. He cries a lot. I mean, not that I cry. I was just going to say, let's take it easy on men who cry. I mean, he cries a lot.

You and JBL are always crying. I like to cry that I'm crying. I was just going to say, like, let's take it easy on men who cry. I mean, he cries a lot. You and J.B.O. are, like, always crying. I like to cry. I like to cry. But, you know. Listen, if you had worked for Donald Trump, you'd have more reasons to cry. That's true. So weak. Yeah, that's true.

When Donald Trump went into the hospital, I was crying tears of joy, and Mark Meadows was crying tears of sadness. So that's, like like a little different. But look, one thing that people have to bear in mind, unfortunately, is that our legal system is designed for delay. And Trump is a past master at delay. That Mar-a-Lago case with his little cutie judge that loves him is not going to go to trial for ages, you know, maybe not even before the election. She's going to find every reason to delay. So that one, which is cut and dried, it's the Mar-a-Lago documents case, that's not going to do anything, certainly not before the election, maybe not ever, I don't know, we'll see. And the Georgia one, he's not going to go to jail for that. So I just think

if he's, the thing we have to focus on is not whether he's going to be to jail for that. So I just think the thing we have to focus on is not whether he's going to be in jail, it's whether he's going to be a convicted felon. Because that is a possibility, and that would be enough, I believe, for a goodly number of Republican voters to say, yeah, he was a great president, but I can't vote for a felon.

Define a goodly number. Two percent? Two percent? One percent. Three percent? Which would be enough. Oh, that's good. One percent would be enough.

I think we're going to need about six percent. Can I just say, though, really quickly, the chances, like, the scenarios that you can come up with, and it just so happens I was at a meeting where people were doing some scenario things. He could be a convicted felon. He could be even maybe have to go to jail. And he could still become president, pardon himself, and

like, walk away from all of it. All right. Well, I think we can all agree on one thing. Hopefully he dies before all that happens. Okay. let's... We have one final guest. And I was hoping that everybody could do me a favor. And our last guest, it is his 49th birthday. It is his 49th birthday.

May 59th. I'm sorry, my ears are going wrong. 59th birthday, and he's coming on stage. You might have heard of him. His name is James Carville. And I was hoping we could all... I was hoping we could all sing him a little happy birthday as he comes out to visit us.

Ready? One, two, three. Happy birthday to you. Happy birthday to you. Happy birthday to you! Happy birthday, Happy birthday, Happy birthday, Happy birthday to you! Happy birthday to you! you