The Canadian Bitcoiners Podcast - Bitcoin News With a Canadian Spin - Rich Dias and Keith Dicker - Canadian Concerns, Global Problems | The CBP (Bitcoin Podcast)

Episode Date: February 13, 2025

FRIENDS AND ENEMIESThis week friends of the podcast Keith Dicker and Rich Dias return to discuss the current state of affairs for Canadian investors, the ongoing currency risks here and abroad, as well as some of the other challenges as we reach the end of the debt bubble. From a couple of Canucks who like to talk about how Bitcoin will impact Canada. As always, none of the info is financial advice. Website: ⁠www.CanadianBitcoiners.com⁠Discord:  / discord   A part of the CBP Media Network: ⁠www.twitter.com/CBPMediaNetworkThis show is sponsored by: easyDNS - ⁠⁠www.easydns.com⁠⁠ EasyDNS is the best spot for Anycast DNS, domain name registrations, web and email services. They are fast, reliable and privacy focused. You can even pay for your services with Bitcoin! Apply coupon code 'CBPMEDIA' for 50% off initial purchase Bull Bitcoin - ⁠⁠https://mission.bullbitcoin.com/cbp⁠⁠ The CBP recommends Bull Bitcoin for all your BTC needs. There's never been a quicker, simpler, way to acquire Bitcoin. Use the link above for $20 bones, and take advantage of all Bull Bitcoin has to offer.

Friends and enemies, welcome back. Different configuration in the studio tonight, after tonight, and actually before we started too. The studio's configured for a three-man weave live tomorrow. Brad Mills and Ali Hamam are coming by, weather permitting. We're snowed in right now pretty good here in Dundas, so we'll see. But tonight we have Keith Dicker, Rich Diaz, Diaz and Dicker, probably the most two prominent Canadian Ds courting a mostly male audience since Pam Anderson. And they have a lot to say about the Canadian economy.

We're going to talk about Mark Carney. We're going to talk about energy. We're going to talk about the loony, all these things. But for the normal listeners, you'll know that the ads are usually a little longer than this. But if you're listening for the first time, I'm going to blast through these since we're under a bit of a time crunch. Easy DNS. Mark has been a friend of the show, a friend of the podcast, friend of mine for a long time. Use his service. If you're starting a website,

starting a business, go there, use our promo code, CanadianBitcoiners or CBP Media, something like that. You get 50% off. I know you guys are using it. Keep doing it. There'll be a link in the show description. You can't go wrong. He'll give you your money back if you don't like the service. Won't happen. Never happens, but I'm saying it anyway. And then Bull Bitcoin, best place to buy Bitcoin in Canada. You can sell it there too, though you shouldn't. You can pay your bills there with Bitcoin, though you shouldn't, or maybe you should, I don't know. And don't forget, non-custodial. Never get rugged, okay? Christopher really wants to freeze your bank account. Can't freeze your Bull account. Can't

freeze your hardware wallet. Don't worry about bull account. Can't freeze your hardware wallet. Don't worry about that. Use the promo code. You get 20 bucks or $21. I forget how much. Doesn't matter because you guys should always signed up. Okay. Here we go. Keith Dicker, Rich Diaz, Ice Cap Management, Ice Cap Global, Ice Cap something. What's going on boys? Long time. Rich, little less time than Keith and I, but it's good to have you both back. Thank you. I guess i'm smarter we never know who to go first it's actually this

we have this we have the same problem on the loony hour sometimes keith jumps in other times i jump in but anyway thank you for having us back joey it's nice to it's nice to be back nice to chat with you and uh yeah thanks having us. So I'm excited to meet everyone in the community here tonight. I just happen to think the visibility for the world, the economy, financial markets, social movements, I think it's crystal clear where everything is going. Some people might really like where we're going. Other people may not like it other people might have their you know their three monkeys what is it see no evil hear no evil and

what's the other one speak no evil yeah speak not eat speak i think it's me anyway i just you know we're you know on the loony hour podcast we. I'm super excited about that. And for IceCap, how we're managing portfolios. We have a lot of enthusiasm and maybe for some insensitive reasons, maybe. But I think everyone should be prepared for some great opportunities coming up here. I just think I'm pretty excited about it. That's a good way to put it. And we'll hit the ground running here. There's, in my mind, a couple of significant moving parts, especially for financial markets.

I would say culturally too, but we may or may not touch that tonight. The first thing, and the thing that's on everyone's mind, we talk about it on our program. Our chat talks about it. Everyone on the news is talking about it. And you guys on Looney Hour are talking about it as well, the Trump effect. And this guy is a steamroller like no one else. Someone compared him the other day. I thought this was a very apt analogy. A man who's coming into the White House for the second time, he's like a guy who dies in a video game, but gets put back with a full set of lives right before the final boss of the level. And it seems to me like this is the way this guy is carrying himself now. He understands how to win. He understands who's on his team. He understands the strengths

on his side and the weaknesses on the other, and it's showing. So I think maybe let's start with him. Rich, you put out a video, you put out videos every week for Ice Cap, but you put out a video the other day or maybe a week or two ago about how Canada as the 51st state is absurd, doesn't make sense. We are not the 51st state. I think a lot of our listeners here would argue that culturally, we're basically already there in a lot of ways. And economically, we may be closer than maybe the mainstream realizes. I'm not sure where I come down on those things. I do know that if there was ever an offer to give me my retirement accounts in US dollars at parity, I would jump ship. I think a lot of people who are under 35 and net producers who still can't

afford homes in the big cities, which is to say places where there's opportunities and jobs, they would probably jump ship too. But maybe you guys have a different view. And I'd be curious to hear, what is your stance on this whole 51st state thing? Is it possible that this is actually something that could come to fruition? Keith, why don't you go ahead and then I'll finish up. Okay. I'll be very quick and blunt about it. I think it's ridiculous. It's a great narrative.

But to actually have Canada join the U.S., just the process involved with it, it would never work unless there's some kind of abrupt change happening in the world. Can Canada break up? Yeah, absolutely. But I think right now, for some reason, Canadians are all banding together. You know, they're all very emotional and adamant about something that's not as important,

whereas they should have been more, they should have better feelings about something else leading into it. So no, no, Joey, I don't think this is happening. Rich might disagree with me, but I don't think that's where Canada is headed. I think it's just like, why buy the cow when you can get the milk for free? And so that's the way I would put it. I mean, you mentioned my video. That's the Ice Cap Canadian Market Wrap.

And we talk about this. And I had to address it because I think you're right. There are some real cultural links that I think are really important. I think people don't realize how integrated our economies are for better and for worse. And I mean across the board, whether it's a regular regulatory, whether it's, you know, spectrum, whether it's telecommunications, obviously, we share airspace, it's an unguarded border. I mean, we there's, you know, there's police like leaving aside the drugs, you know, there's obviously some, some, some policy that like, some joint policy initiatives on crime and terrorism, there's NORAD, NATO. I mean,

it goes on and on and on. But the reality is, I think it's mostly a red herring and has been from the start. I think it's a narrative that our media, I think, latched onto because they're just desperate to sort of distract from the liberals' economic record. You know, it's an easy sort of, you know, Trump is just something that's easy to hate in Canada, for better or for worse. I'm not saying that's right or wrong, just that's the reality of it. Whereas the truth is, is that our economies are inextricably linked. And it's no, and the most obvious place that we're linked is in the energy sector, where we send 97% of our barrels to the United States via pipeline and on rail. They refine it, they send it back to us, or they export it, or they use it, or whatever. And they can't really

live without us from an energy perspective, although they could probably live without us from other product perspective. And we certainly probably live without us from other product perspective. And we certainly cannot live without them. And so I think really it's all this chatter distracts from really what I think is the issue, which is the drugs, which is China and rare earth minerals and the Arctic. And I think whether you listen to Trump, if you have to sort of, I think that's the signal. And Trump, i think that all this jibber jabber about the 51st date is the noise

what do you make of the prime minister saying that it's not noise at uh that recent media event right is he maybe he's just lost in the sauce too i don't keep this laughing i think that might actually be the case but i don't know i think it's i think it's just a great opportunity for them i mean i think i mean i think what we often do is we forget to put ourselves in the shoes of our, not enemies, that's too strong, but let's say our political opponents or ideological opponents. We forget, like, this gentleman was getting literally the most historically unloved or hated prime minister in the history of Canada. They were talking about the Bloc Québécois, the separatist party of Quebec, being the official opposition just a couple of months ago.

And in a way, Trump gave the Liberal Party a gift. And the gift is something for all of us to rally around and hate. Again, right or wrong, that's just sort of the reality of it. And I think the Liberal Party, I think we should not mistake someone who we don't like for being an idiot or not being a shrewd politician i think justin schuster is a very shrewd politician and he took this opportunity around with it he took the football and he's desperate to get into the end zone which is this idea that trump is bad canada good and this is something that we can just use to distract against his horrible economic record i don't know what keith does that's the but that's my view.

That's actually, I should have wrote some of this down, Rich. You're making some great points. It happens. Every once in a while. What do you think? What do you see from your side? For me, I think there's got to be a clear definition of what it means to become the 51st state.

I think Rich is describing conflicting situations. Sorry, Rich. I think when I hear you say that we can't live without Canada's energy, or he can't live without Canada's energy over there, I also hear you say that they could survive without us and we couldn't survive without them. That's a parasitic relationship. And whether or not it means the complete sort of balkanization of Canada internally or the annexation of Canada to the states, I don't think it makes a difference. I think materially, maybe not from the subject, maybe not from the perspective of new borders on a map or me being able to cast a vote in an American election. I think we're a lot closer, and it sounds like you guys do too, economically,

to being this sort of American parasite than we are being our own independent nation. That's our own fault. And when I think about what might come in the next year or two and what might not come in the next year or two, I think it's important to talk about Quebec a little bit. Because Quebec is this sort of interesting microcosm of people, hardy people. I love the Quebecois. Bull Bitcoin, the sponsor of the show, is all Quebecois. They're fantastic guys. But

to hear the Quebec premier talk about how, or excuse me, the Bloc leader, yeah, what's his face? I forget his name. Talk about how they won't allow a pipeline at a time when Canada maybe for the first time

in a decade, two decades, is united behind that sort of initiative, thanks to the threat from the US, is difficult for me to stomach. And then when I think about the equalization payments that Quebec gets, I think to myself, that's a nice first piece of the puzzle to chip away at if you're the United States. And then after that, you chip away at Alberta vis-a-vis the energy card. And then once you lose those two states, those two provinces, again, maybe not in terms of voting rights or border redraws, but pragmatically, you're a different country after that. And a lot of people start to lose their attachment to Canada. Now, don't forget, our prime minister, shrewd as he may be, spent the better part of a decade

demanding flags fly at half-staff all over the country and now wants to unite people under a culture he said didn't exist and was worthy of being burned. And so when I hear this idea that we're going to unite, I think that's a flimsy, flimsy set of ideals for people that are apathetic in the best interpretation and just don't have time because they're spending it all on putting food on the table in the worst. And so I think we're a lot closer to this absorption, culturally, economically, whatever, than maybe the experts on the call think. Now, I'm just a guy in his basement. You guys are the ones managing money. Tell me where I'm wrong on that.

First of all, I would not use the word shrewd to describe the current prime minister. Let's get that off the table here. So let me tell everyone what's really happening here so we don't get lost in a lot of the noise that's out there. And, you know, Rich and I, we talk about this all the time we talk about with our clients all the time and you know leading into this I say there's lots of great opportunities coming up and stuff everything the world has experienced over the previous 40 years that's that's not going to happen again so to expect a linear outcome from what we've already done, it's wrong. So thinking, you know, Quebec will fight with Alberta and Ottawa will be conservative,

some liberals back and forth. That's all done. That's not going to happen. Same thing for the Americans, Europeans and Chinese and so forth. But we've just completed this 40-year cycle with long-term rates always going lower, governments always able to fund their deficits because rates were always lower. And, you know, growth was always a little bit higher than what it cost to funding. Now we hit zero rates, overnight rates in 2009.

And then they use zero rates near zero and QE to flattened global yield curve for over a decade. When you have 40 years, Joey, of rates always going lower, a lot of great things can happen. And then there's lots of noise going on, you know, parties bickering about this and that. You had globalization take place. China and India both entered the WTO. You know, Rich laughs when I say this, but the internet was created. A lot of things were happening that gave everyone the opportunity to pick a lot of very low-hanging fruit. All that fruit's now been picked. It's gone. And to try to reach higher to

get it, you have to pay higher for your funding costs. There's no government alternate planner right now that's able to fund their deficit. And what they forecast a year ago is now blown out of the water. You know what the Canadian story is. What's the Canadian story on deficit, Rich? They haven't even told us yet. I mean, they're globalist kind of agenda. And that's what Mark Carney represents, by the way.

I'm not a fan of his policies. He's a very nice gentleman. But what he represents, that's the previous 40 years. Instead, the Americans have grabbed everything by the horns here. And they're saying, hey, we are now going to turn towards a domestic focused policy. We're going to cut rates. We're going to try to become more efficient with the government spending. We're going to reduce administration and red tape and stuff like that. Lower taxes story is happening as well. And we're going to focus on energy and technology, and we're going to suck in foreign capital from everyone else around the

world. As that's happening, the rest of the world, we now have a choice, including in Canada. We can say, we're going to do the same thing, or we're going to boo the American national anthem.

We're going to raise our own tariffs and we we're going to fight climate and all this stuff. And if that happens, Canadian dollars go in sub-50. I mean, we can't help it, but we'll make money on it. But I just happen to think we're going to have a completely different experience coming up from we had previously. And people who can see that, I just think it's an amazing opportunity lining up right now. Is there, so in your view and we'll, we'll bring rich back in as well is the fix to this some level or some

degree of like a commodity nationalism of sorts, sort of you're protecting your energy, protecting your commodity stash, and then also supporting your currency and not thinking about trade first uh as opposed to the you know past 40 years where like you mentioned it was global everything was everyone's and we're all sharing and doing all this stuff does canada have that capacity if so and if not then what is the fix for the cad and maybe for the the canadian economy writ large yeah so the quick answer is yes to the first part of the question.

The next part of the question is, Ray, as of today, Canada is not going down that road. So I think we have an amazing opportunity in Canada if we focus on our natural resource sector. And there's a few things we can do to quickly resolve our debt problems and so forth the future can be incredibly bright for canada i think there's a 10 chance we go that route and it's simply because the the political establishment or the blob or what whatever you want to call it

it's just not set up to do it. So therefore, the opposite has to happen. So, you know, I think there's a load of money to be made here in the currency world. What are your thoughts, Rich, on those lines? I mean, there's lots of stuff to unpack there. I stress that this is not about Canada and the US. This is about China. And I would just submit that listening,

I know I'm shifting gears here a little bit, but I think we need to sort of take Marco Rubio, who's the secretary of state at face value. And this idea that we're parasitic, I don't agree with that at all. I think we are a trading economy. I think loads of people, I think the idea that countries should be completely self-sufficient, I think is not only against what Adam Smith would, you know, would, would, you know, would, would argue, which is we should, we should exploit our competitive advantages to the betterment of humanity through free markets. But I think is, you know, I think is wildly sort of dislocated from the reality of our geography.

We don't, we cannot grow oranges in Canada. We need to import them from Florida. And, you know, that's sort of an example of many, many different situations across all different products and services. And we should import them and export our products and services that we have in abundance, which is the energy piece. So like, can we recalibrate ourselves? Can Quebec become more productive? Absolutely. But to address that equalization payments thing, I think it's quick. It's amazing how quickly we

forget in 2014 when Alberta was hemorrhaging money and jobs. No one bitched about equalization payments then. And so I think what my point is, is that in each, I think the idea that, what I agree with you in the sense that Blanchet shouldn't have said that, but Blanchet is not the leader of Quebec, right? He is a federal MP. Whereas if you look at Legault, who is the PM of Quebec and will ultimately be the arbiter of any pipeline, he's much more amenable to that. Because as you said, the Canadian population, I think 74% of Quebecers said that we want pipelines. And so I think that, you know, it's important that we sort of focus on what I think is the signal and not the noise. And that's why I bring it back just to finish up, I bring it back to China. This is not about US versus Canada. This is US

versus China. And like Keith mentioned that the world is different. And going forward that the world is will be different. And I think that we need to look at both asset allocation, portfolio construction, currency, the politics, how countries manage themselves and invest through the lens of this new paradigm, which is China versus the US. And I think everything sort of falls in line from that. Yeah, I do like that framing. I wish I knew more about the China angle, because that's a sort of famously difficult country to read and get information from whether it's economic data or otherwise. I'm curious, you know, maybe before we move on, what other, like what opportunities should we not be squandering as a population when we, while we have this sort of feeling of

unity, uh, temporary as it may be fleeting as it may be, you know, this, this very rare outside of like cheering for the Canadian Olympic hockey team that we have people all wearing the same jersey in this country. And, you know, we seem to have it right now. What should we be doing as a nation, given this level of support? You know, it seems like broad support for Canada first. I'll go first on this one. First of all, Joey, there's no unity. Come on.

So, I mean, classic strategy for every single country, government, empire since history was created. When you have a domestic problem or challenge of crisis, you have to find an external enemy to direct everyone's attention to. That's what you always do. So all of a sudden, you know, Rich mentioned a few moments ago, you know, the liberals were voting pretty low. Were they like low single digits? No, they were like, yeah, low teens. I mean, like one seat, maybe two seats. It was like 10, I'm pretty sure.

10 was like the floor I saw last I checked. Yeah, that's just generous. And then they received this gift, you know, and they were able to direct their energy towards, you know, the one person on the planet that everyone has very strong feelings about. Some are positive and some are negative. And Canadians, they band together. Of course, you know, we're with that.

And then all of a sudden, I mean, and there's some pretty good data floating around. And I think it's a National Bank data point, Rich. It shows that the equivalent cost of provincial tariffs between each other. IMS data. Yeah, it's about 21%. So a little bit lower than this, you know, this mythical 25% data. And, you know, you bring that point up and it's crickets.

No, we're not able to help Canadians with that. So I don't think there's any unity across the country whatsoever. This will blow over in terms of this strong emotional support or non-support for one thing over another. And Canada is no different than any other country. We're always going to do what's best. So put it this way. This is my view.

I'm not. I have strong political views, but I'm apolitical. I don't support one side over the other. But both sides, they have very good traits or features about themselves and some that are not very positive as well. You can never get the best of both worlds, of course. But we have that happening. But every other country is the same way.

And the one country that we're watching right now, and this could cause the whole world just to go... We have Germany coming up in a couple of weeks their election and it is going to create noise but it should not create the outcome that the eu does not want but if if for some reason it did you had this under and by the way i'm referring to the german election where the uh call it mainstream yeah the AFD the alternative for Deutschmark or Deutschland I guess it is if you know if their support is actually a lot higher that that's similar what happened with Brexit in 16 and with Trump as well uh the entire EU disintegrates like it is literally over the next day and And I use that as an example

because here in Canada, we have the same kind of things going on. The Americans just went through it and they had this overwhelming swing. So again, the world's always going to continue and go on, but we're going to move into something that's very different. And from this insensitive financial perspective,

because that's what Rich and I do, we manage money for families right across Canada, and we need to be insensitive. This is going to create a lot of moving, like severely moving markets up and down. And if you're positioned correctly, Joey, like I think this is just an amazing time. So like myself and Rich and you, Joey, can we change things dramatically? I know Rich can, because he has a really good voice, of course,

but I'm just along for the ride and I think it's going to be a fun one to be with right now. I don't know. I have a slightly different view just with respect to Canada. And I think that a lot of what we're seeing has exposed how vapid and vacuous comes from and i think that what has been exposed and you mentioned quebec and pipelines and stuff i think it's amazing that everybody sort of is confronted with this reality that canada is a petro state and the caloony is a petro currency

i think that if it wasn't for trump i think we'd be in the wilderness on that perspective. And I think that the idea that Canada is lacking productivity, that has, you know, its GDP per capita is falling. I think that that's something that's been exposed in a way that wouldn't have happened, you know, in a different generation. And I can assure you, having spoken to many of the people on the other side, that they understand that investment, for many of the reasons you mentioned, which is to sort of separate ourselves from America, but also for intrinsically good reasons with respect to what we need to do for the next 100 years or 200 years is reinvest in Canada, make things easier, cut taxes, certainly the carbon tax, which just doesn't get enough talk is not talked enough. And so, yeah, just from a Canadian perspective,

I think there's loads of opportunity to sort of turn the ship around. I don't know. I'm an optimist. I'm a little less cynical and much more naive than Keith. It's well documented. I'm old and weathered. I just think it's going to be a crash and burn first. I think that's where we're headed.

And again, the opportunity is there to change. And, you know, let's just say the liberals in Kern, let's say they are reelected, let's say that happens. You know, maybe they've actually, they can identify and acknowledge implicitly that they do need to change. So there's always that hope. But what do we say about hope as an investment strategy?

It's a terrible investment strategy. Yeah, it's not a great one. You know, that's a valid point. Maybe we should talk about Mark now. Interesting fella. I mean, there's a lot to be said about a guy like Carney. Not many things, in my view, positive. I'm with you guys on that. People who listen to this show know that. People listen to your show know that. But there's a couple of things I want to point to because I

think they go under discussed in the mainstream and on podcasts as well. I hear a lot of praise for Mark Carney, this sort of enigma of the financial world that he's been around. He knows his way around. I mean, it's true, right? He's this guy- I think you should speak to some hedge fund managers in London before you crystallize that view. They would disagree. This is why I want to ask. First of all, I don't trust anybody under five foot six, so I don't trust Mark Carney already foot six, so I don't trust Mark Carney already. Okay. And two, I'm not convinced that this guy's two, you know, quote unquote crowning or crown achievements, his, his Brexit handling and his, I think he was the

bank of Canada, uh, chair in 08. Right. So did he, he dealt with both those crises? Do I have that correct? And as far as I know, neither of those really went positively for the countries in which they happened. Uh, so do you guys have a, maybe a view on Carney's past? And then we'll talk about some of the policy positions that he's proposing, including this, uh, sort of twisting himself into licorice, talking about the carbon tax, of course. So let let me go first i'll deal with the bank of canada experience and then rich how about then you jump over into the boe and everything else afterwards that sounds fun yeah so i actually met carney back in 2011 ish 12 ish something around around was he was he taller than or we're on the same height, really. You are taller than Carney. I've seen you in person.

No, no, no. He's pretty short. Give me a break. He works out, though, so he looks bigger than me, really. That's the deal. But from an objective, like, you know, again, I remember the 08, 09 period incredibly well. I was living it in real time, of course.

So remember, we just went from this 30-year period. There were rates always going lower. There's never a crisis. There's nothing going on. Banks are always rock solid and all that stuff. People don't realize back then, banks literally were on the verge of toppling over so were insurance companies pension funds and all this stuff and like we were literally minutes away from midnight of that happening and people would say well they had to make policy changes because

you can't tolerate that which i'd always you know as money managers, it's not our view to say they should do this or they should do that. Instead, it's more what are they going to do? And back at the time, in their mind, they only had one thing they could do. They have to save the system. And by saving the system, there's no free lunch. Someone had to pay for it so I met what they did, they cut rates to zero

and near zero and negative in Europe and in Japan and then they used quantitative easing and stuff like that so when I met Kern it was at a function in Halifax and in the back room you get to say hi

everyone is asking him, you know, you look handsome, nice family, and stuff. And he looks at me, you know, he's in friendly country. And of course, you know, I can be an asshole sometimes. So I look at him and I say, how do you

feel about socializing the bad debt problem? And to which he was, you know, he's like, whoa, I wasn't ready for that when they were a kid. And his response to that was, he didn't blink. He said it was necessary, you know, to save the system. And by socializing the bad debt problem for people that are following that may not really understand what that means. Instead of having a select few experience the losses, instead they took those losses and they spread it across the whole economy. And the way it was spread out, government took on debt to bail people out.

But the savers, like the most conservative people in the world, they're the ones who ultimately paid. Because instead of getting 4%, 5%, 6% on their GIC all the time and going to bingo on Saturday nights and having fun, they weren't getting paid anything. They were forced to move the money into high yield debt,

emerging market debt, preferred shares. All of a sudden, the conservative investors took on all the risk for everyone. But he readily acknowledged that. And then chatting with some other pretty big leaders around the world, in Canada and elsewhere, the response was

the same in that Carney as well as Bernanke at the time and I forget who was the who was leading the Bank of England then. Use a British accent. should put his accent. You should put his accent. Mervyn King.

Mervyn King. Mervyn. It was Mervyn King. Mervyn King. Mervyn King. Whatever. Anyway, you know, they all had to stand up in these meetings. And, you know, it gave confidence to business owners.

And that's what they did. So Carney was a success with doing that for Canada back then. The policy he chose was the policy that he was told to choose. It wasn't his choice. Because, again, I believe in this whole globalist world. And he was a part of it. He bought it. You know, he sold his soul for it and that's what they

decided to do and he has not changed his his path you know ever since and then he showed up in in london right rich what happened then well he took over in july 2013 and this was at this point you have to understand that the uk didn't have anywhere. There was obviously some banks that may have gone under or whatever. And there was an enormous investment banking liability that was weighing on the UK system, but also that Europe was in a lot of trouble, starting with the Greek, with Greece and et cetera. The problem with Carney is that is twofold for me. One is that he kept interest rates in Canada, by the way, and in the UK way

too low for way too long was precipitated the housing bubble. That is not my opinion. That is, well, I guess it's everybody's opinion. But there's a lot, a lot of research to support that view. Most crucially, that research comes from the Bank of England, which challenged his view. So Carney said that it was relative housing scarcity that caused the housing bubble. research comes from the Bank of England, which challenged his view. So Carney said that it was relative housing scarcity that caused the housing bubble in the UK and the Bank of England's research, and they've done a lot of it, said, and I quote, the relative scarcity of housing played almost no role in the national housing price level since 2000.

Basically, what they said was that it was financial engineering that caused the massive housing bubble. Let me know if you've heard that before. And so he's obviously taken zero responsibility for that. And I think that it's something that for me, I find rather unforgivable having watched him for as many years as I did set interest rates. I worked in England from 2011 to 2020. I can assure you that my colleagues and many, many people who I worked with and ran and bumped into also agree. The only way that you get housing prices to rip as high as they did is if you have negative real interest rates and you sustain those for a long time. So that's the first thing. Second thing, his involvement in Brexit, to me, is also unforgivable. Remember, the Bank of England is a technocrat.

It is meant to be apolitical. And he should have never, ever, ever voiced an opinion, regardless of what he thought. And he did. And I think that was a huge mistake, just from me judging somebody else's work. Maybe that's not fair. Maybe that is fair. And then finally, the last piece, I think if Canada is a petro state, is our largest export, we basically sell oil to pay for imported goods to the tune of nearly 4.6% of GDP,

which is a massive, massive number. His, in my view, outrageous lie that, you know, putting a carbon tax on industry would not be paid for by governments and or consumers is something that I think he does not believe. And that terrifies me. I think that he is, let's just say his views on energy and climate policy, I think are really deeply held and for canadians i would be very very wary of that and maybe that's too sharp a call maybe that's too sharp i might get in trouble with keith for saying such sort of being so crystal clear in my views but i think you know this idea that he's going to scrap the carbon tax is is a classic bait and twitch and i think we should be very, very wary of that.

I think you're probably right. I just want to point out that of the three of us on this call, only Keith is also a WEF man. He's been to an event with Mark Carney. Rich, have you been to an event with Mark Carney? No, I've never been. Me neither. That's so weird. What were they serving, Keith?

Bug burgers or what? What did they have on the menu? Yeah, eat sea bugs. I got some great stories. You know, one of my really close friends, I can't say his name. He told me not to share his name but I'll share the story anyway. And it goes something like this.

You know, I wake up in the morning and he's like, I have this chat group going on with another good friend. Guys, last night I was at a dinner party with, I think it was Salvini. Was he the prime minister of Italy at one point? Oh, no.

Yeah. Well, it was Berlusconi and then. Not Berlusconi. No, it was Salvini. I think he had a moment in the sun. Yeah. And he's like, yeah, a dinner party. So you had dinner with the prime minister or president of Italy? He said, oh, yeah, yeah, it was a good night.

And he said, but the morning was even better. I was going to grab my coffee and I bumped into the Pope. I love it. You know, the world is great. You know, you make friends and you swim around in different networks and you know people bump into things and and stuff like i remember when when covid was it wasn't quite snowballing yet but it was almost there and uh this other group of friends i have a bunch of european-based middle east-based managers uh it's a whatsapp group and they send out a note like on on sunday my sunday morning and they're like guys guys, hop on now. We're like, what's going on? And this

guy was based in Milan. He said, guys, they're closing Northern Italy. What are you talking about? And he walked through. He said, people are literally sprinting to the train stations with their suitcases to get out of Italy.

And he said, well, where are they going? They're going to France. And I said, what happens in France? Well, they get locked down there. And he said, well, where are they going? Well, you know, they're going to France. And I said, well, what happens in France? Well, they get locked down there. And lockdowns weren't a part of the game yet. But I remember then on Monday morning, and the first thing that we did, you know, Rich wasn't with us then, but we started selling equities.

We reduced risk substantially. My point is make some nice friends like Joey and Rich, and then you get ahead of the curve here. Because I think we're headed into these kind of events again. And there's going to be some significant country or government out there are going to wake up some morning and the PM, the prime minister, or the president, or whoever is going to get a phone call from Treasury to say, we got a problem. And that's how it's going to go down.

And I don't think we can get out of it. I really don't. Well, let's I know, Keith, this type of time. Let's wrap here. I want to ask one sort of final question. You guys can both offer a comment and then we'll part ways. You're talking about reducing risk. You're talking to an audience here that is maybe in what a year ago or two years ago

was probably the riskiest asset in terms of legislative risk and all these other things. It's still very volatile, but this is a crowd that is pro-risk and young. I think it skews young compared to, I don't know, let's say the bond heads, right? You point to yourself, I'm not pointing to you. But what is the average sort of under 35, under 40 Canadian supposed to do to reduce risk? These are people who are working jobs, nine to fives in a lot of cases, don't have huge investment portfolios because they maybe can't afford it. Maybe you don't have the bandwidth to handle it. What is the,

what is the method through which these people can reduce risk? That's a big question that I think about a lot. Like I know what I would do to take risk off, but there's people who are just like on the knife's edge all the time. And so what, what can they do to reduce risk? Is that even a fair question for you guys? I don't know,

but I'm going to ask it anyway. Well, you know, truthfully, it's not a fair question for us because rich and i are both regulated so we there are things we can and cannot say on an on an open call right you know like this uh you know and you know everyone's appetite for risk is completely different but you know and this is now just just view here. But one thing to think about, the moment that we do experience a risk-off event or moment, the irony is that usually some of the most liquid markets actually sell off.

So whether it's crypto, but gold especially. So you can have an event that would be like the dream event for people who are invested in bullion and all of a sudden gold is selling off and they don't understand why but the why the answer to the why is because you know everyone needs liquidity at certain points in time and that's when you will have you know so for example the people using the old school example people are buying junior minors the time, for example. And then they also hold the seniors and bullion. And all of a sudden, something bad happens and the junior mining stocks are holding.

There's no liquidity. There is zero bid on it. So for them to raise liquidity, they have to sell the liquid stuff that's going on. So, you know, I do apologize to everyone that, you know, for regulatory reasons, we can't tell, you know, everyone's listening, you should own this or that. But you do want to consider that different markets can react or behave differently than what you're expecting. So for us, you know, we're conservative managers. That's who we are. We do an incredibly successful job at protecting capital on the downside.

And, you know, there are ways we do that because, you know, we're never all in into one market. How about you, Rich? What do you think on that side as well? Yeah, I just think, so the only thing I can say, again, talking around it so we don't get in trouble, is to not be convinced by the promise of diversification, is what I would say. So there are lots and lots of people who will say, oh, well, if you own this and you own that, you're really diversified. And what I would submit to you is that in a crisis or even not even necessarily crisis, just in a, let's say, a significant drawdown, many of the things, many of the assets or indices or whatever that you thought were, let's say, uncorrelated, they become very much correlated. That is to say your correlation will go to one, right? So correlation is, you

know, that's a statistical, you know, word that is to describe the co-movement of a particular index or two prices within a specific time that's the question formula for that anyways it could be negative one which is to say that's not correlated at all and then one which is to say very very correlated and so in time when times are good people will sell youth on the idea that some assets are completely uncorrelated but the truth is in part because of the liquidity but are there other reasons so that wasn't the answer joey was looking for i know i was trying i mean i don't it doesn't matter it turns out actually doesn't matter what you say because the whole chat's just talking about being all in on bitcoin so it doesn't matter

what you say anyways no one gives a shit. So listen. One thing that's important for people to realize, and they're on social media these days and stuff, so people like us, we are regulated and licensed. So people have to appreciate what we're allowed to say and not allowed to say. It is what it is. And some people don't understand that.

They'll take a shot at rich and they just don't know where they're coming from. Do you know what I mean? They ought not to. And then you also have a lot of people on social media platforms and stuff who are... Everyone is selling something. They're selling newsletters and

things like that. And you're like, again, I always ask, follow the money. Where's the money coming from? Where's it going and things? But one thing that's great today, though, for this platform and all the other ones out there, because we run a platform as well. We're there uh there's so much enthusiasm out there today for people who understand the world is not the same as it used to be and those people are you know the monkeys that we we did earlier you know and they're all they all think carnie is awesome but

it instead there's increasingly more and more people that are engaged with the world. And they know things are a bit different. And so they're asking questions. You know, they're swimming around. They're trying to find, you know, the band Blind Melon. You guys know that band? Yeah, I know the band. Yeah, okay.

Yeah, they had Wonder or something. Yeah, I know. It was like No Rain. That's what it was. You think about the video for no rain you know it's this little lady little young lady she's dressed in a bumblebee outfit and she's walking around and she's the only kid dressed with a bumblebee outfit and she just doesn't fit in with anyone you know and now of a sudden she she goes out for a walk and she goes over this little hill and everyone else is dressed in a bumblebee outfit. I'm trying to say that.

Everyone's today listening to this and Looney Hour and everything else. We're all bumblebees. We're all trying to find each other and figure it out. If you ever have a wealth management meeting with Keith, all you have to do is request that he shows up in his bumblebee outfit and he will do it. No questions asked. Okay. So I mean, we'll sign off. I mean, you guys both do the Looney Hour podcast. There's people in the chat talking about how great Rich's ice cap market review videos are. I think they're great too. I wish they were a little longer. That's my own personal preference. I like something more than eight minutes, but that's okay. I think they're still very strong. I'll give it to you guys to sign off. I just want to note that Keith,

you I think are now officially Rich's reporting superior. Do I have that right? Yeah. So on his performance review, I met Rich in the summer. Okay. And I got to tell you, first of all, this is the kind of guy who meets you at a pub and is reading at a table when you get there. Worst vibe, but that's a separate story. True story. When you see Rich, people don't realize this because the Looney Hour is not like a full camera setup. Rich should be able to bench 225 at his size, and I'm not sure that he can.

I hit 225. I love it. I hit 225. Thank God, man, because it needs to be in your performance review. If not, it's unacceptable. My personal trainer will attest to it. I'll get him to write a note. Thank God, man, because it needs to be in your performance review. If not, it's unacceptable. My personal trainer will attest to it. I'll get him to write a note.

One thing I love about Rich, you know, and Rich, I don't need to say this on air, but Rich knows this. I have an incredible amount of love for Rich and his family. I really do. But a few months back, I forget where we were, which city we were in. We were meeting somewhere for the new stuff. We were at like a real fancy hotel and I said, let's just meet at the bar down there. We'll

do our stuff. And the bartender comes over and said, well, yeah. And both of us just looked at him and said, we'll have bubbles. And it's like, it's at like two in the afternoon, right? We weren't going for like a pint or anything. And then I think think you know i think rich had prosecco and i said i'll have kappa and we we do this and we're like yeah we sort of that

out and then we go for a beer afterwards and then it's wine and things but uh yeah i have a lot of love for rich and everyone who's following here right now for the first time check out this guy because he's going to make your life better. He really will. Thanks Keith. It's true. It's true. You guys, you guys do a good job. And you know, as someone who does a podcast smaller than yours, admittedly, but it's sometimes it's hard when you're first starting out with an audience to say things that you think, because you just, you don't want the negative feedback. You don't want people to tell you you're wrong. You don't want people to criticize you, but that's how you get sharper. And when I listened to you guys and Steve

Sretzky is on this level too, especially on the real estate side, you know, this is a sharp trio and you don't get to that size. You don't get to that level of longevity. You guys are, I think on year three now, uh, you don't get to that level of longevity without being right a lot more than you are wrong. And so, you know, kudos to you guys. Now, please tell people all about where they can find both of you, whether it's IceCap, The Looney Hour, The Floor is all yours. Yeah, I'll go first. So, you know, Rich and I, we both work for icecapassetmanagement.com. You can go there to find us. We manage money for families across the country. And Rich and I, we also we're co-host of the the loony hour podcast which is a canadian century

podcast talk about a lot of the same things that you're talking about here as well and we have so much enthusiasm for what's happening it's just this is running through our veins and it it's fun do you have to add anything to that rich as, as well? Yeah. Well, you mentioned the Ice Cap Canadian Market Wrap, which you said is too short. I'll say too bad. Because they're original every week. So it quite gets Keith knows. I call Keith like, oh, what are we going to do this week? I get really stressed out.

And for me, maybe the problem is my standard is very, very, very, very high. For me, it's everyone is life and death for me i really really care about getting things right and you can check that out on youtube it's the ice cap canadian market wrap give me a subscribe and a follow i think that's what that's what the great thing about like like this conversation and the loony hour as well like it's long form conversation and nothing's rehearsed. So like, who knows what stupid thing we're going to say, but the great thing about Rich's podcast, the,

the ice cap in the market wrap, it's like bang, bang. It's like five to eight minutes long. It's telling you exactly what you need to know, what what's happening in, in Rich's style with a lot of data and analytics. And I know for a fact that a lot of people on Bay Street

and even down on Wall Street as well, they go to this thing. They want to know, okay, cool, I got it. So it's an incredible destination. It's new for Canada. It's very strong. So people listening to this show, Looney Hour, Ice Cap Market, Rap,

this is the kind of content, if you like this show, you'll like that show. There's no doubt in my mind. Even though the only Bitcoin talk is Keith slandering it, but that's fine. We'll talk about that another time. Thank you both for your time tonight. Thank you, listeners and viewers.

We'll see you potentially tomorrow if the snow holds off, and if not, then Monday. Adios.