The Canadian Bitcoiners Podcast - Bitcoin News With a Canadian Spin - The CBP #151 (Other Notable Stories) - CPI Back on the Menu, Aiding Foreign Wars, Earning Too Much

Episode Date: February 21, 2024

FRIENDS AND ENEMIES Join us for some QUALITY Bitcoin and economics talk, with a Canadian focus, every Monday at 7 PM EST. This week: -January’s CPI -German banks ready to collapse -More aid for funding foreign wars -The laughing Central Bankers -You earn too much -Bank of Canada ending QT and so much more From a couple of Canucks who like to talk about how Bitcoin will impact Canada. As always, none of the info is financial advice. Website: ⁠www.CanadianBitcoiners.com ⁠Discord: ⁠ ⁠https://discord.gg/ESRCZWpb⁠ A part of the CBP Media Network: ⁠www.twitter.com/CBPMediaNetwork This show is sponsored by: easyDNS - ⁠⁠https://easydns.com/⁠⁠ EasyDNS is the best spot for Anycast DNS, domain name registrations, web and email services. They are fast, reliable and privacy focused. You can even pay for your services with Bitcoin! Apply coupon code 'CBPMEDIA' for 50% off initial purchase Bull Bitcoin - ⁠⁠https://mission.bullbitcoin.com/cbp⁠⁠ The CBP recommends Bull Bitcoin for all your BTC needs. With their new kyc-free options, there's never been a quicker, simpler, more private and (most importantly) cheaper way to acquire private Bitcoin. Use the link above for $20 bones, and take advantage of all Bull Bitcoin has to offer. Check out the other podcasts on the network: The Canadian Bitcoiners Podcast (https://www.youtube.com/c/CanadianBit...) The NHL 94 Podcast (https://www.youtube.com/@NHL94Podcast) Two Whites and a Blue (https://www.youtube.com/@twowhitesand...) Bitcoin and Barbells (https://www.youtube.com/@JoeyBBandBTC)

The Canadian Bitcoiners podcast is just two guys and maybe a guest or two discussing Bitcoin, Bitcoin equities, and the related macroeconomic space. It's not meant to be financial advice, so please, if you're doing any investing, after listening to our program, do your own research, do your own due diligence, and understand that any money you invest can be lost. The show is meant for entertainment purposes only, and we hope you enjoy the program. Oh man, rough. Okay, well where do you want to start? The guy will not reply back to me. I tweeted him once he replied back to me and then the second time when i asked and several times i have asked for a answer to a question i proposed nothing he replied to me today he sent me today does not reply about the qtr larry laparge show

and you know the question i asked because he it was we somebody else i tagged him in something he replied back yeah i tagged him about the block fish then i i specifically asked did you pull all your funds from block fly at the same time you were advertising for them they'll reply yeah i mean i want a clear yes or no i believe it to be yes based on everything but you're never going to get it jack nicholson You can't handle the truth. I can certainly handle the truth. I'm going to send you that thread. Fundamentals at 21, I think is his name, on Twitter.

It's a phenomenal thread. Let's talk about some notable stories. The January CPI is out. And the numbers being reported show an increase month over month. And without getting into specifics of what darts were hit on the board this month, taking into consideration the recent tone from Powell and the fact that inflation being reported, it's been going up and it's been going for some time last four months, I think I'm wondering, does this change your opinion of what's going to happen moving forward with the rates?

Because the reason why I ask is there's a potential Powell is a lame duck chair. Yeah. Right? Meaning that once Donald Trump, I suspect he's going to be elected president, he's probably, I mean, I think there's a very high likelihood he's going to turf Powell. Right? He's probably, I mean, I think there's a very high likelihood he's going to turf Powell, right? So if you're in Powell's seat and you're looking at this, you know, this is a scenario that he might fucking be out of a job in less than a year. Why would he listen to any influence from the White House in terms of doing his job? Maybe he could parry some of that influence, maybe not all of it, but I don't know.

Maybe the picture I'm painting may not ever come in fruition, but anything is possible. And, you know, if you look at the inflation over the past four months that's being reported, it's gone up. So why would they not keep rates higher for longer? Inflation is up in the States only compared to expectations. It's still sort of, you know, if you look at 12 months of that chart, it's trending down. The problem is super core, which they claim to be looking at is up a little bit. And gasoline, you know, 12 months of that chart, it's trending down. The problem is super core, which they claim to be looking at, is up a little bit. And gasoline, in terms of the price of a barrel of oil, is still pretty low. And I don't think either of those things are long for this world. So I expect inflation is going to go up. The two things that the US is going for them is that the inflation was really due mostly to the services sector, price pressure there,

which whatever, you can kind of weather that or expect that it won't be as sticky as some of the other inflation. And the other thing is that retail spending surprised to the downside. That's from TD Economics too. So it's not just me saying that or looking at graphs or reading the tea leaves. If consumer spending is down, then maybe you start to see a drop in some of the other CPI numbers next month or next quarter or whatever, who knows, right? Powell is like every other federal central bank chairperson. He wants to

cut. The bias in rates is down. It's always going to be down. And the hire for longer guys, I think don't understand that the cut is the last piece of the equation. The market is already pricing and everything else. Nvidia is worth more than like the entire nation or the entire continent of Europe or whatever, like who knows how much that thing's going to run higher. But I think a lot of people are calling for like this huge crash in both housing and the stock market as rates stock market as rates stay higher. My question for those guys would be like a crash to what? The level's not seen since January, 20% ago, 15% ago. It's not a crash. I think for a crash at this point, for real pain, especially in the stock market, you need 60 or 70% because the numbers are... Well, I mean, you tell me. Look at the chart, look at the Meg 7, look at the S&P 500, look at the ETFs for the S&P, like VFV here in Canada,

XEQT is another one that's widely used. Show me how a 30% drop in equities causes enough pain to force a recession or to force CPI down. It doesn't. And I think the concern that those guys have at this point is that their tools aren't going to do the trick and people are calling their bluff. And as long as credit stays available for the consumer, we talked about how credit card debt is up, people are just going to keep racking up the debt and not selling equities, not doing any other stuff that they would normally do, not scale back spending. And you're adding to this sort of loop because people are also doom spending. You can't save for a house anyway, so why the fuck not just go to another concert? Why the fuck not just take another trip? Why the fuck not just buy another TV, buy another camera, buy another phone, buy another whatever, right?

They got a problem over there. And I think inflation is going to start running really hot. Do you think that Trump will turf Powell regardless of what he does with rates in the next eight months? Powell claims not to care about politics or whatever, but I'm sure he does. And I agree with you. I think Trump's going to turf him no matter what because I think Trump views him as part of the reason he didn't get reelected. And I think he views him as a guy who will be, quote unquote, part of the deep state permanent Washington apparatus that he doesn't want anywhere near a second presidency. Which, short of him being dead or in jail, he is almost bound to get at this point. Unless there's a surge in the sale of stamps with about a week to go before the election and mail-ins get senile Joe over the hump.

But otherwise, I mean, you see a lot of changes at the Federal Reserve, I think, in terms of policy, in terms of direction, and in terms of price of money, the interest rate. So let's wait and see. So it sounds like we're both in agreeance that he's going to be out of a job shortly after i think so if we could come to this agreeance and we could see this i'm sure powell could also figure this out as well and i don't think it would be a terrible blow to him like he's not the youngest person in the world right he can enjoy his retirement do speaking engagements and all that shit But what I'm trying to get at is if he's like, you know, like it's like a lame duck coach. Like you're not going to do something to fuck up the team. You're going to do the best thing you can to ensure that the person after you inherits something good because you don't want to have the stigma attached to you that you are the worst federal chair in history.

So keeping rates quote unquote high, you know, where it is right now and roughly in the 5% range, or maybe even slightly higher, that could be a potential option. Anything is possible. Well, don't forget there, Powell doesn't talk about the policy rate. He talks about the real rate. I think that's the term. I can't remember now. So it's basically the rate minus inflation. So inflation is the variable there, right? That's your X. So if they can get inflation down a bit, then maybe that rate becomes too high. He always makes, he makes sure to make that distinction now when he talks to the press. And I think that that's something to pay attention to. If inflation gets up again, then, you know, it's a very static, very dynamic situation, I should say. Nothing is static there at all. it's been fun to watch and i appreciate i don't do a lot of public speaking obviously but like i think i'm pretty good at it and i i can like tell when someone is kind of nervous compared to when they're

not and i gotta say two three months ago powell looked to be less and less nervous the most recent fomc two weeks ago he didn't look very happy to be there. He didn't look like he was jovial. It didn't look like he had an edible before the press conference, like he did the month before the report before, but, uh, we'll see. We'll see how he looks in the next, um, the next time he has to talk to the gaggle there. So based on all this, I just, anything is possible. And I just wonder if he's going to just potentially keep it as it is, regardless of what happens with inflation rate, just because he wants to ensure that he's not known as the worst fucking chair ever in history. So that's why I'm just looking at this. Why do you think he's not?

He could already be headed that direction. Correct. He missed on the raise timing, right? He raised way too late way too quick and then if you have to name five chairs i wouldn't be able to volker the reality is i don't have a nanky yellen mnuchin there you go volker oh mnuchin wasn't one he was treasurer secretary maybe so like it's hard for me to like really i don't have enough data i don't this is a a world i don't really care too much about to be perfectly frank.

So just by looking at it, I just, he's not a young guy. He's at the end of it. He's been in his job for almost a decade. It was a 2015, 2016. He's an Obama.

Yeah. Oh my gosh. So pretty sure. So whatever. And I guess one thing I just want to bring up is a boomer was asking already free filling the SPR reserves. And I just, I took a look right now I'm under website.

And the answer is no, the SPR reserves are going down since. Oh my God. I'm telling you those low oil prices are not long for this world either. They got an expiry date and it is going to match that chart. Like you would not believe. I can't, I cannot believe these guys are doing this for political reasons. It's just completely insane to me.

This is going on. November is the last month that's been reported here. So November, 2023. So as two months, three months, there's nothing reported. They haven't added anything to it since August.

So September, October, November of 2023 has been flat, no increase, no decrease. So they haven't been adding to it since august so september october november of 2023 has been flat no increase no decrease so they haven't been adding to it but they haven't been subtracting from it so right that's just so it's a fun fun fun and exciting fun and exciting what's next there's a story from cnn and they're talking about the title of this story is German bank races for wave of bad loans in greatest real estate crisis since the financial crisis. It's a German bank P B B.

Don't ask me what the acronym stands for because it is a very long German word and German name. And I'm terrible at this, but anyways, they're a specialist bank. They are focusing on real estate financing and public investment finance. They're not a traditional universal bank

like Deutsche Bank. They're a specialist bank, so keep that in mind. But anyways, PBB came out this past week saying that they only have enough cash and highly liquid assets to operate for six months so they desperately need new investors when this happened their stock tumbled 17 i can't believe it didn't topple 99 but what the fuck do i know the bank has a large exposure to real estate so what i'm trying to get here with the story is banks in general that have large exposure to real estate

i.e all of them they're fucked even janet yellen this past week was noting that banks that have this type of exposure to real estate especially commercial they're in a they're dire situations germany's biggest lender deutsche bank said last week that it allocated 123 million euro during the fourth quarter of last year to absorb the potential default on its U.S. commercial loans, real estate loans. 130, 123 million euro. Like, that's basically two or three commercial deals, right? That's fuck all. They allocated this in Q4.

New York Community Bancorp, that was another one that was heavily tied to real estate and also commercial real estate in New York. We talked about this last week and the last few weeks about this. A bank in Japan called Aizora, they said that bad loans tied to U.S. offices led to projected annual loss of $190 million last year. Buckle up. There's a lot of fucking banks that have exposure to US real estate, commercial real estate, that they are going to feel the pain. And when they feel the pain, there's going to be bailouts as a result. We feel the pain and the cycle continues. And on top of all this, you see all these problems going on with these banks and commercial real

estate. The Fed said they're going to be testing 32 different banks against a severe global recession that impacts commercial real estate, residential real estate and corporate debt markets. So they see something is going on and they're going to try to test how well these banks, the 32 banks that they're going to randomly select as a way to see if they could weather the storm. So they obviously see something that's coming up. Of the 32 banks are going to be testing, Joey, surprisingly, New York Community Bank Corp is not on the list. I wonder why, because they fucking failed that miserably. So there you go. Banking, real estate, commercial real estate, all looking bad. Looks pretty bleak, eh?

If you're one of these guys who has to mark to market your real estate portfolio in the next year, you're really going to be cruising for a bruising, right? You're really not going to be happy about the markdown you take if you try and renew the loan too. The Looney Hour, Keith Dicker specifically, talks a lot about loan loss provisions, which is money that banks keep in reserve to help combat some of the risk in bad loans. And in the last year or two years, you've seen a significant spike in the number of dollars these guys are keeping just to protect themselves from stuff that they must have thought was a good deal risk-wise at some point in the last five years or 10 years, and now suddenly is not.

The question is, are they going to have enough? I think Janet Yellen was on TV a week ago so a week ago maybe a week ago it was this last week she was talking about this yeah right and she's doing an interview and you know i'm going to become the body language doctor again here to quote uh the famous bill simmons didn't like the way she was shaking her head a little bit too much and twitching a little too much and kind of losing her breath a bit too often. I realize she's a little longer in the tooth than you or I. Yeah, some of that stuff is forgivable. But, Len, I got to tell you, I don't have a lot of faith in anything that these guys say.

And I worry that there's a lot of risk under the table that's not being accounted for or not being discussed or being intentionally kept secret. Joey, that's so tinfoil hat. Everything's going to be fine. I don't know, Anand. What about 2008? What about 2001? What about 1987? What about XYZ, other crash and lie, set of lies and manipulated data? You got to express the risk somewhere. And so those loan portfolios is one way, dollars another way, bank stock prices are a third way. There's lots of ways to express risk. You can't hide them all. You're going to be playing whack-a-mole with public markets.

It's almost always a losing game, right? So let's wait and see. Do you think that we go a year without a significant crisis in the US banking sector? We talked last week, I think. We haven't gone a year. Yeah, that's what I mean. We're not going to be able to go a year. And so we even talked last week about how the regionals have like double the credit card delinquency.

They probably have double the mortgage delinquency, double the auto delinquency. It's all in those regionals, man. And those regionals. The BTFP. Yeah. It's like a month or two months, right? It's all in those regionals, man. And those regionals- The BTFP. Yeah. It's expiring in like a month or two months, right? It's pretty close. But they put that in place to try to prevent further collapse.

If that didn't come into place, the banking crisis that we experienced in 2023 would have been far, far worse. How much money do we have in the reserves for CBP? Can we snap up an American regional bank if the prices get low enough? It's potential. We got a decent amount of Bitcoin that we purchased. Now, we'd have to pay capital gains on that. We'd have to run the numbers to see if it's possible.

Call the accountant. Call the accountant. I think we should look into this. We'd be sick if we could just start broadcasting from a bank vault. We don't even need to use the bank. Just give me the building. Let's broadcast the show from a vault. You know that Patrick Bet-David does that, right?

Does he really yeah so that's probably six months ago they uh i don't know if they bought the building or they signed some agreement but yeah they now do it from a bank vault that's what it's sick that's a great idea i have to that's on youtube right it is it must be on youtube if you've seen it yeah they do it all on youtube and that show that when they first announced it i'm guessing it was six months ago it was, they talked about it at length. It was a landmark moment for that show. But anyways, something that's not a landmark moment, at least for Americans, is the border bill,

which basically scribbled out the border bill stuff. So I don't know how it came to this, where initially it was a border bill, and that's what was being talked about. I think it was being talked about within politicians and political circles, but also the media, too. And it was, you know, a percentage of it was actually the total bill was going to be for the border. Now they got rid of it. So the U.S. Senate, they passed a $95 billion aid package.

This was 120. Well, they scribble out the border bill stuff so it was actually it was a it was three figure three figure billion um so this aid package is going to go to ukraine israel taiwan yeah and yeah like this kind of happened too by the way around super bowl super bowl time right big surprise it just seems funny that this took place. They got rid of the border shit. It happened around the Super Bowl. It's kind of like trying to do this on a Friday before a long weekend.

And then, you know, it's just like, what the fuck is going on here? Oh, man. It seems like nothing is being addressed that shouldn't be addressed. And the money that's being spent on foreign wars to keep them going, it's like a never-ending pit of money. And you've got people in the United States that can't find jobs or they're addicted to drugs.

Healthcare, they can't afford it. And so much is going wrong. People are being evicted or foreclosed. I would imagine these are the type of things you should be investing in. What the fuck do I know? Or maybe even infrastructure. You go to airports in the United States compared to airports around the world. Like you go to China, for instance, and you look at pictures.

It's like, holy fuck, the airports in China are brand new and they're modernized. You go to the United States, it's like a fucking war zone. Or if you go to the New York subway yeah you're lucky if you get out of there with it looks pathetic i know with all the the maintenance that hasn't been done over the years and then you see all this money going abroad it's like really like do we really have to do this and it's just a shake my head moment immigration and the border and Narwhal talking about the migrants coming into Canada too. Narwhal, I know you're an American. I hear you on the FTC sometimes.

This is so nuclear, I'm not going to touch it. But I will say a couple of things just about the kind of broader situation with on-the-bus bills. And that's basically what this is. On-the-bus bills are bills that capture some specific cause and specific costs and then tie in a bunch of other pork. Tons of this stuff happens. Happens here, happens in the States, happens all over the place, I'm sure. The reason they do this is because they want to be able to say, well, this person didn't support the border bill when we brought it forward. They don't mention, of course, that there's 100 million, 200 million, or in this case,

several tens of billions probably for a cause XYZ that maybe one party or one person or one faction doesn't support. And so they don't want to pass the bill. And then they accuse them of being anti this, anti that, whatever the ism is of the day, that's what they are. And it's just this clusterfuck of media coverage with no productivity or um you know plot advancement in terms of what these guys are doing to fix the border problem the bigger issue i think for the states you know whatever these

foreign aid packages there's nothing new these guys spend tons of money on foreign wars they will kill people all over the planet with the American dollar. They've been doing it for a long time. But isn't the bigger issue that Texas is basically on the path to succession here? Are they going to go ahead with it? It seems more and more likely every day. You got Abbott now building an armed forces

base for 2,000 troops on the Texas-Mexico border. And I mean, it's not about whether he plans to use the troops against the federal government. I don't think he does. The fact is, though, that this guy is a state governor building a guard to secure a federal border, a nation border. I would say that, you know, without being an expert in succession or succession

succession it's probably so session yeah gotta soften that c up without being an expert in succession i would say that probably there's similar stuff that's happened in a lot of other cases where states have seceded from the union or wait wait i more mean like broadly like okay last time like a like whatever you can look back i'm talking like 100 years 200 years thousand years whatever i'm just using state and union there in this sort of uh you know royal state royal union type thing i would guess that this is a signpost is it not we're building a military installment on a border it's got to be i i just don't think that this lends itself to improving relations with the federal government anytime soon.

That would be my big concern if I was somebody in American political life. But it doesn't seem like anyone's talking about it. It's been basically out of the news entirely. You only see this stuff, text it on Bitcoin Twitter and conservative Twitter, I would say maybe a little more often than liberal Twitter but by and large it's been basically nothing right radio silence on that that's where i would be concerned if i was them i i don't put too much stock into this into something like that taking place at least not right now maybe in several years or decades potentially but well it depends right like like, potentially. Well, it depends, right?

It depends on what you mean by secede. It doesn't necessarily mean that you form your own nation state and start your own currency, but does it mean that you stop taking orders from the federal government? Like, no, I'm not going to shut down the Bitcoin miners. No, I'm not going to force them to report the data that they're collecting. No, I'm not going to force people to do self-hosted wallet nonsense. I'm not going to regulate AI. Like that, I can see.

This is part of the deal. Once you join the collective, then you got to listen to the master tell you. That's true here, but it is not true over there. It is not true over there. They co-opt. United States. Yeah, I think that's in name only.

States are united over there. States are united means a lot more over there. It sure does, but there are certain things the federal government deals with. I don't know. When you were talking about them seceding, the one thing that comes to mind is the mandibles.

We talked about Nevada being there. It was landlocked. At least Texas, in this case, it's not landlocked, so they have the ability to transport shit in and out by sea, plus they have a border with Mexico as well. So that's the one thing I always wonder when I hear anything to do with secession in Texas.

I always revert back to the mandibles. Mandibles. Mandible moment. Yeah, it's a reality of that. So the United States of – is that what they call the United States of Nevada? I forget. I don't know. Something like that. the United States of that, what they call the United States of Nevada. I forget. That's good. I don't know.

I don't sound like that. Anyways, New Zealand central bankers. And man, we saw this and I can't believe that. And I'm going to be very brief on this. I can't believe that they have the gall to say it. They were saying that central banking is a good business to be in.

Unreal. They're printing, they print money and people believe it. And they do it with a fucking laugh right like really like i mean i see this and i've trusted a clown i've seen have better judgment with trying to keep the quiet part quiet and saying a lot of these guys are doing the opposite this thing i just that's all i'm gonna say is like come on the truly no corners category here not my no corner week actually i do have somebody by the way but these guys are very very close to what they did they did over here and terrible stuff isn't it bizarre when the emperor tells you he's naked but if he's walking around naked and he tells you you know what i mean like the jig's up it's very

very weird i must have watched that clip five times and tried to find like the longer version of it i haven't been able to find it but i kind of want to see like was that just taken out it's hard for me to imagine that it was but was it taken out of context was it selectively edited i don't know i want to see the longer video i don't know who knows i want to see the longer video there's one out there for sure because that was like completely insane man that is batty and new zealand by the way you know another place with a lot of friction um domestically thanks to some of the covid stuff and other you know they're in the same kind of real estate mess that we're in over here so not a great time to be testing the limits of uh the the uh sanity of the voting population that's

for sure well they switched prime ministers that's a new person from the same party from previous yeah and um i'm so this guy i don't know if he was hand selected by the former prime minister i don't know but at the very least things seem to have you know settled down over there somewhat i don't know if it's a result of this or just know settled down over there somewhat i don't know if it's a result of this or just time people you know are just more anyway we'll leave it at that but my no-coiner is i'm going to talk about the economist and we talked about the economist many times before but this time i have to bring them up because they penned an article that said your pay is going up too fast that's the fucking title your pay is going up too fast

and they are blaming the pay everybody receives because it's gone up that is the reason why central banks are having a difficulty finally trying to rein in this inflation problem it's now at the very end of this we dealt with supply chain issues we dealt with this and that the flooding of money it's fucking the money that we dealt with this and that, the flooding of money. It's fucking the money that we're getting paid. That's the last piece of the puzzle. And we're getting paid too much. And they say in the article, and I'm quoting this, although American pay growth is between 4.5% and 5.5%, it is probably too high for the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target. So they're saying 4.5% to 5.5% increase in pay by Americans is too high, and that's causing the Federal Reserve difficulty to achieve their 2% target.

But they also, in the same article, say, and this is by their own admission, rich world prices was rising 5.4% year over year. So, hmm, inflation is 5.4% year over year, but people's pay is 4.5% to 5.5%. Either barely covers the inflation or does just negligibly cover it. So I can't see they could say this on both sides of the fence. Prices are going up not because of fucking pay.

It's because they flooded the market with M2. And now people are getting paid it's a lag by the way they get paid more to catch up to the and they probably will never catch up in totality they don't talk about the fact that they just flooded the markets with qe with all this fucking money and you have more money chasing the same goods more money that you're in a stock market more money more money entering into real estate, more money entering into Bitcoin. They mentioned nothing about this.

And the sad thing is the economist, they don't even say who the fuck wrote it. I can't find the author's name. He, she, they, them. I don't have a fucking clue who it is.

It's just them. The economist. Again, they are my no corners of the week. There's no byline. The funniest thing for me is that the beginning of the article, I have it here. I had to pull it up. I didn't realize it was behind a paywall either, by the way. Yeah, I must have had an archive link before.

Central bankers are entering the final stretch. Rich world prices are rising. So by 5%, by 5.4% year on year, down from a peak of 10.7%. Just the first sentence, okay? Central bankers are entering the final stretch. No, they're not. Oil is still super cheap, like we talked about. There's still problems with the data reporting.

They're changing the CPI basket all the time. They're changing to look at things like, quote unquote, super core, whatever the hell that is. Then the next sentence, Len, rich world prices are rising by, who's rich in rich world that's being paid too much the ups drivers just got laid off are they being paid too much the guys who have to drive uber and have two jobs in rich world to make it work the new canadians who come here on uh you know pr student visas whatever and have to live 20 to a basement apartment to make ends meet? Are they part of rich world making too much? Who's making too much? Anyone you know making too much? Anyone you know complaining about just there's too much money hitting my checking account

every month? I got to slow it down to help ease the inflationary pressures. Anyone you know saying that? Not a single person person but you have the economists are fucking reporting that's the case unbelievable language they use is important man like it's it's like labor markets are not cooperating what do you want us to do work for free work for less eat zib bugs whatever like it's one of those things basically is what you're saying just say it stop trying to finesse me with the you know canvas canvas bag new yorker crossword puzzle bullshit and just say what you fucking mean you can't maintain the lifestyle you think you should be able to maintain because inflation is too high

we fucked up and you got to pay the price for it i don't think so man you go first that's what i say make and the sad thing is they don't put a name associated with the article so they could put up whatever piece they want and there's no way to tie it to an individual or a group of people that pen this so it's sad that nobody's doing that and when you see that you know it's fucking a shitty article. If I wrote something that was good, I'd want to have my name associated with it. I would want to get the recognition that I deserve as a result of putting out a great article. But if I put out a shit article, I would not want my name out there. Just because I want to have my name penned with a good article, flip side, I don't want to have it tied at all to the shitty

article i fucking wrote yeah that's that's just another thing boomer was saying about the truckers did you see about that what's going on in new york city uh yeah they're refusing to what are they refusing to take loads or deliver yeah because it's the the ruling against donald trump right there was a recent ruling that trump had to pay what was the number at 350 million dollars some insane number, yeah. And by the way, you see that the governor there got on the news and said, don't worry about the Trump ruling. Your business is safe in New York. Like, fuck it is.

So you do something the fucking governor doesn't like or win against a liberal establishment candidate, then you're anything but safe. It's unbelievable. Sometimes I find myself saying stuff on this show that i can't believe i'm saying out loud but it's it's truly where we are things have become so notable out there that we have to say these things yeah i just want to say torp is always asking every week when mutant league hockey chat you know what hockey is i've seen it's on the switch i think it's on the switch it's it looks good i almost bought it before uh what was i doing i was like going somewhere there's gonna be a long ride or something like that and i think it's only like 10 bucks i kind of want to buy it

honestly it's probably not bad i thought it was a game for genesis back in the day you know hockey league i thought it was yeah i thought it was i thought it was a like oh no you're right you're right yeah you're right it made by ea and so they kind of used i'm guessing the same engine that they had for madden and nhl and so they just created for yeah see sega you saying yeah game looks legit so i don't know i have never it. I'm busy as it is, man. I still have games to play in my NHL 94 league. I still have to wrap up. Yeah, but yeah, that trucker thing, it's incredible because they're, you know, they say they're refusing to deliver anything in the city of New York.

So, well, sorry, New York City. So that goes to show you that people are fucking pissed with the administration and also the ruling by some of these judges which might have a vendetta against donald trump because did you see the ruling i saw like a video of his when he finalized ruling and it's like he did it with like a smirk and everything i don't know if he was an edit or something that's not from the ruling it's from the first day of the trial yeah okay someone someone made the edit where he where like it's him being introduced in like a 1990s like sitcom opening credits holy shit that's perfectly i haven't watched tv in forever joey do they still have this since the 90s or what it's probably been like 15 i haven't watched

a show a recent show i i don't watch i don't watch any tv um this is off the beaten path like did i stop the song at the beginning at the end of the shows yeah they do they do but it's not really the same like it's it's more for dramatic effect now like i just finished watching true detective today four out of ten by the way we're a season yet um i never heard that it was a book true detective season one len if you and daniella are are ever bored on a weekend, on a Sunday, and you feel like watching something that will 100% captivate you with all A-list actors, all the top of their game, True Detective Season 1 is the best seven hours of TV ever made.

It's not anything that comes close. Give me a number of how many of the actors are A-list. It stars McConaughey and Woody Harrelson. Woody Harrelson is the only one I know because of Cheers. Yeah, McConaughey is in there too. He's really good in that movie. Alexander Goddard is in there. If you put McConaughey in a lineup with some other random dude,

I have a 50-50 chance of picking him. I'm not kidding. I'm telling you, if you ever want to get into something that will captivate you, that will do it. That's good TV. Anyway, do you want to talk about one more thing, two more things? Yeah, well, something else that should be able'll captivate you that that'll do it that's good tv anyway we we want to talk about one more thing two more things yeah well something else that should be able to captivate you is what's going on with the bank of canada because they see they're going to be halting this is according to rbc by the way and this is not from the bank of canada but rbc believes

that the bank of canada is going to be halting their qt program within months. And they say that it's going to be ending in April of this year. The Bank of Canada to date have reduced the assets on their balance sheet to around $313 million Canadian. And at the peak, it was around $570 million. So they've been unwinding this for quite some time and reduced their balance sheet significantly around $250 million Canadian. But you get this word from RBC, which is a prominent bank within Canada. They must have a lot of data that they're pulling to come to this solution. The Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Tony Gravel said last March, I know it's a long time ago, but still, he said last March, that policymakers expect to wind up quantitative tightening as late as 2024 or early 2025. So it's a long time ago, but still, he said last March, I don't know if it's a she, that policymakers expect to wind up quantitative tightening as late as 2024 or early 2025.

So it's either going to be the end of this year or beginning of next year. So you've got two different things that are being said. One was a little bit dated from last year, but they're saying it's not going to be ending until later this year. RBC says it's going to be happening in a couple of months. And if QT ends, potentially QE is an option if it's going to be happening in a couple of months and if qt ends potentially qe is an option if it's ever needed so just keep that in mind the canadian dollar has had some challenges as a comparison to other currencies throughout the world like compared to the mexican peso for instance it's lost significant amount 10 15 in the past year and a half if i recall correctly so yeah it's going to

be interesting times moving forward our rate or our um our cpi comes out this week right i think yes tomorrow i believe tomorrow wednesday i think so in terms of qtqe i agree with everything you said let's talk canadian rates since we talked about the u.s let's talk canadian rates last month uh home sales increased for the second straight month i have written down here uh td expects firmer price growth is likely moving forward home builders building an impressive pace but still not uh okay i'll quote here still trail fundamental housing requirements flowing from canada's sizzling population growth. Next week's inflation report likely to show a little change in overall inflation.

So I don't know. I'd have to look back and see how many times we stopped tightening operations and left rates high, high compared to the 80s, the 80s are not high, but higher than we're used to? Or do they instead often stop those quantitative tightening operations and then switch to QE and make money easy? I don't know. I've said this before that I think housing, you know, I had this back and forth with Scott Dietels on Twitter, Dettles on Twitter, about how there's not a housing crash coming. I don't know what the case is for a housing crash.

And I look at housing the same way I look at the stock market. If you tell me that houses are going to crash to prices not seen since last year, that's not a crash, man. It may be a crash in name only, that 20%, but if they're going up 20% every year, it's not really a crash, is it? Um, you know, you need, you're talking like 60%, 70% for it to really be a crash that would bring prices back to what? 2019, maybe 2018. It's really worse than that because if you adjust for inflation.

Yeah, exactly. Exactly. Right. So what do you So what are you really hoping for people who are like on this crash bandwagon? I don't know, but I don't think the bank sees it the same way you do. I think they see it the way that I see it. And they're going to try and temper expectations with their words. And the policy is going to become easy again at some point in this year. I think it's going to start to go the other direction. And I know Boer in the chat was saying they're not going to cut in the states unless something really goes wrong canada's not in the same boat like there's too there's too much exposure to real estate if there's too much uh too much the cpi basket is shelter and you know you do that i don't know foss used to say that canada bank of can Canada is a test testing round yeah I don't know if

there's much validity to that I just wanted to bring that up so maybe that's truthful I don't know but there's also another thing to consider is Tiff Macklem his words that he's using in his tone it's different now body language doctor he's in the house everyone doctor is in this isn't body language this is actually was straightly straight coming out of his mouth and he's been pretty he's been critical of the government yeah right this is what i'm very much so the last two meetings probably yeah pretty yeah so yeah, what I gather from it, and maybe I didn't get it correctly, but the way he's saying is the government spending should be reduced to enable the Bank of Canada to continue what they're trying to do to bring down inflation. He said, from what I gather, he's saying that the government spending is really causing an issue with the bank to try to achieve their 2% target. And so, I don't know what's happened, but lately he's been, yeah, like just... They're at odds, right?

They're at odds with the current government, I think. I think it's safe to say that. Which is funny. If I look at the language. It's probably the first time ever, right, that it's been so direct. Which is funny because the relationship between the two entities, right, they are separate on paper, but really, is that the case? No. Which is funny because the relationship between the two entities, right? You could, they are separate by on paper,

but really, is that the case? So, and if you have, you know, somebody within the family that is saying stuff that's negative towards the family, but I don't know. It just seems odd.

It's a, I know what happens when that happens in the Sopranos. Yeah, exactly. But I don't think Macklin is going to get whacked. He'll be, what do you, what do you think? think uh maybe we'll close on this cut this year or no in canada or the u.s or both give me both cut this year yes okay there's i think now significant cuts no but we can see 25 basis points from each of the two banks um the latter half of this year and

still meet my prediction now i think the better question is will be significant will we see you know up to 100 basis points or more cuts this year in either of the two and i'm just totally guessing here it's like guessing the cpi but i would say yeah maybe we'll see between now and december 100 basis point cut i think so it's definitely possible what about you yeah i would say canada is more likely than the u.s but i also think that you know if you look at some of the reporting last week on the u.s cpi print the white house is in panic mode now because there's just not going to be an easy path to cuts like there was you know a month ago or two months ago when cpi was kind of coming down uh that was the story right that was the

narrative yeah jovial powell like i talked about before but some reporting saying the white house is in a bit of a frenzy last week because they really are relying on rate cuts i think a lot of people are gonna try and call that bluff so let's see i think we're gonna get cuts on both sides to your point 25 basis points is what everyone expects because we just saw 25s on the way up for part of that. Are you talking about every meeting or by the end of the year? I think by the end of the year, you're going to see 75 bips on both sides.

I think Canada's, you know, you could convince me with the right set of odds to bet that Canada gets 150 basis points off of the rate this year with the right set of odds. I the canada gets 150 basis points off of the rate this year with the right set of odds i don't know what those odds would have to be but maybe three to one something like that and the thing is a lot hedges on their decisions to figure everything does literally everything yeah the stock market the housing market, education. Your ability to buy shit. It's incredible that a small group of people have that much power.

And I'm not saying that they're doing this in a way nefariously, but still they do have that power. That's why I like Bitcoin. It takes it away. And the free market goes on its own rather than having people try to address certain things by increasing rates or decreasing rates and stuff like that but yeah just it goes to show you how much fucking power some people have and it could just impact our lives drastically positively or negatively unfairly is the answer positive or negative unfairly is the answer i think this is the system we built yeah and we live the sad reality is most of us have no other idea like what it

feels like to live in a different type of standard like in a standard where it's money's backed by something that's hard like or just the policies like i don't even care about the backing you could tell me that the backing that the money's not backed by anything and i would say okay but how about at least like some predictability in the policy instead it's like done by the strength of the wind blowing that day you know it's done by again like you said it's like it's very opaque it's a couple of people deciding whether or not you're going to be able to retire at 60 or 65 well 55 i don't have much data to support this but i i think that you would have more predictability under a, like a gold standard for sure.

For sure. So there is merit to say that having that type of system, you'll understand, you'll have an idea of what's going to happen in the next little while. And, you know, I'm born in the late seventies and I'm one of the older people here. I would imagine.

And in my lifetime, I've never, obviously 1971 was the last time there was a gold standard for countries that they could redeem their their gold but as for an individual it's like what is it 100 no not quite when's 1931 it's almost 100 years 100 years now yeah pretty close that's a fucking long time man like i don't know i'll leave it at that joe i think that's a good episode thanks for everybody that tuned into the chat it's been a rocking chat like always like always man you guys are the best uh len is back wednesday with gabe he's also doing tom and nick's uh your life return show wednesday i am doing her boy and morich's tnt radio show all those links to be tweeted out when we have them until we see you next

time. Take care of yourself. Yeah. Don't be my cock. Oh wait, I forgot. I have to go to rumble to end that stream. Anything else you want to add before?

This is the shit we have to do it now, ladies and gentlemen, all this shit behind the scenes. I can't wait till we have the people that could man the switchboard. That's right. Person the switchboard. Okay, now we're leaving. Goodbye. Don't forget, everybody, lots of other stuff on CBP Media Network, including Two

Whites and a Blue. Me, Joey, my brother-in-law, Mike, and our friend Will talk about all the problems millennials are having with finance, romance, and just getting by. If you like CBP, if you like the NHL 94 podcast, I guarantee you'll like that one. Search for it, Two Whites in the Blue, anywhere you get your podcasts. We look forward to seeing you.