The Canadian Bitcoiners Podcast - Bitcoin News With a Canadian Spin - The CBP #160 (Other Notable Stories) - Fake US Data, Loan Forgiveness, Canadian Budget

Episode Date: April 24, 2024

FRIENDS AND ENEMIES Join us for some QUALITY Bitcoin and economics talk, with a Canadian focus, every Monday at 7 PM EST. This week: -Unemployment numbers -Student loans -Chopping up Apple -The Canadian budget -Tax cheats -Household debt and so much more From a couple of Canucks who like to talk about how Bitcoin will impact Canada. As always, none of the info is financial advice. Website: ⁠www.CanadianBitcoiners.com ⁠Discord:   / discord   A part of the CBP Media Network: ⁠www.twitter.com/CBPMediaNetwork This show is sponsored by: easyDNS - ⁠⁠https://easydns.com/⁠⁠ EasyDNS is the best spot for Anycast DNS, domain name registrations, web and email services. They are fast, reliable and privacy focused. You can even pay for your services with Bitcoin! Apply coupon code 'CBPMEDIA' for 50% off initial purchase Bull Bitcoin - ⁠⁠https://mission.bullbitcoin.com/cbp⁠⁠ The CBP recommends Bull Bitcoin for all your BTC needs. With their new kyc-free options, there's never been a quicker, simpler, more private and (most importantly) cheaper way to acquire private Bitcoin. Use the link above for $20 bones, and take advantage of all Bull Bitcoin has to offer.

The Canadian Bitcoiners podcast is just two guys and maybe a guest or two discussing Bitcoin, Bitcoin equities, and the related macroeconomic space. It's not meant to be financial advice, so please, if you're doing any investing, after listening to our program, do your own research, do your own due diligence, and understand that any money you invest can be lost the show is meant for entertainment purposes only and we hope you enjoy the program don't be a cock that's right okay 151 153 don't sell out man you know what i mean like you you have your principles you stick to them. What's notable in your opinion this week? The show.

Can I just tell you that I know what kind of show we're going to have when, like I used to do the, I used to put the streams up first thing, Monday morning. And now I don't have time. Like I got the dog. I try and go to the gym. What are we doing? Are we mad this week or are we happy this week?

Are we upset about something or are we happy this week are we upset about something or are we happy about something been a lot of in the in the yeah yeah that's good hang on i gotta get the time 101 30 i'll fucking use that for the next week thank you so you got that and then you and bitcoin magazine don't you better not you better not the other thing the other thing i laugh about is when i look at the the fucking what's in the news this week for the show and the list is 20 things long i just tell myself like we're gonna get to maybe three of these things because the there's always one thing in the bitcoin stories where we have some disagreement or there's too much to talk about and we end up doing like three of the things yeah it's time joy we expand it from a two 145 to three four hour

we'll take on dan carlin with uh hardcore history is five hour episodes on uh assorted you know fringe wars from the 1800s let's talk about something that you wrote you covered in your weekly wrap-up that weekly wrap-up i'm so sorry for writing how bad that was i i did it in like an hour and a half i was hung over and watching videos on diablo i still read it it's i i like writing it but like i that was my worst one yet i won't be home this weekend i promise i still read it because one of the two stories you talked about i think it was two it was the unemployment numbers united states i love that you're referencing a cndc article this is normie news and they're saying that this is from them i'm quoting them something strange has been happening with jobless claims numbers lately can we listen we have to at least discuss this headline before we go on what does it mean in the

if the cnbc news team gets together and is like we need a headline here what should we say i don't know that they're lying no the numbers are made up no all the data is fudge no why don't we just say something strange is happening oh okay sure that's sugarcoating it but anyway go ahead yeah it's a climate event so we've been getting this now from mainstream media that they're now calling bullshit on the numbers provided by the labor department and now we only have to have them start doing the same thing to the cpi it's you know like they're going this far might as well go all the way but i guess it's asking for too much at this point so we'll take whatever is being offered the articles was the article it states that for the past five of the six weeks that we just had

the that were reported the level of initial joblessness filings totaled exactly 210 000 every of those five weeks and the sixth week that bucked the trend was 220 000 so it was only 8 000 off yeah so it's not like they're throwing darts on the board they're throwing one dart and you're just copying and pasting the same thing over and over again like it doesn't take much to figure out that there's len they're not even throwing the dart len you know that's the problem there's no dartboard There's no dartboard. There's no dart being thrown. It's just the same number. I know I've

done, you know, somebody's done the math on this and figure out what are the odds of having this come out. I'm going to equate it like flipping a coin, Joy. And it's not just flipping a coin and having it land head or tails. No. This lands on his

fucking side how often does this happen fucking happens never but now even with this sixth week that's just even so close to the other five weeks that's like flipping a coin twice and landing it on its side twice that's what this is this is a joke that they're doing this finally we have main street media identifying that there's something strange going on the numbers they've been cooking the books for a long time and you know what as we get closer to the election day i can't believe joey we're six months away roughly six months away to the election what the fuck are we going to be fed in the next six months question for you where are the campaigns like why is there no campaigning going on i haven't seen any campaign coverage and i mean i don't watch normie news but like i haven't seen almost anything doesn't feel like

most of the time primaries i don't know i guess haven't no they haven't wrapped up the primary so they haven't officially nominated don primary. So they haven't officially nominated Donald Trump and they haven't officially nominated Joe Biden for what I could be wrong. And also it's now April 22nd. I'm surprised that if there was any intention of having Biden not run, they didn't execute whatever plan they had. Yeah, because now it's getting to a point uh what like there's a point of no return well i guess there's never really a point of no return but yeah it's it's very difficult to replace somebody every day that passes moving forward so michelle i saw gavin newsom was on uh impartial journalist uh jen sake's program gavin newsom with the locker room trend peddler physiognomy talking about how

they need to tackle disinformation on the right on Twitter. What a clown. Anyway, listen to this on the jobs numbers from Jim Bianco. Consider the US is a $28 trillion economy. It has 160 million workers. Initial claims for unemployment insurance are state programs with 50 different sets of state rules, hundreds of offices, and 50 websites to file. Weather, seasonality, holidays, and economic vibrations drive the number of people filing claims from week to week. Yet this measure is so stable, it doesn't even vary by a thousand applications a week. Just the number of applications incorrectly filed every week or incorrectly filled out every week could cause it to vary more than this. He brings up a great point. And I replied to him. I said,

Jim, you know why? Everyone knows why. And he liked the tweet. Bianco is a popular guy in TradFi and in TwitterFi. And you're going to see more prominent people just going, the numbers are fucking fake. Now, the real question is, what do you look at if you're an economic modeler? These guys, one of the things I read for the newsletter every week, like all these RBC economics, Scoti economics, TV economics, they look at this data. The data is made up. So are you really telling me that number one, the government is not making up tons of other data? Of course they are. Of course they are. And number two, all the market gyrations based on the data are their second order invented. They don't mean anything because

the stuff they're based on is not real. This is your brain on fiat. You are trading against algorithms, looking at data that somebody made up. Like Len mentioned earlier, they don't even throw the fucking dart. They can't be bothered to even spin the random number wheel. They just use the same number every month and assume no one's going to say anything. It's crazy. It's absolutely crazy. Now, the real crime here is that I haven't seen a clip of Peter Doocy grilling Karine Jean-Pierre about this, but I need to see one because KJP is maybe the least competent person on the planet. And listening to her try and finesse Doocy on the stats would be hilarious.

The other thing I look forward to is the next Fed Day. What's his face there? God, what's his name? Gunlock will for sure bring this up because they will talk about unemployment data as it relates to federal reserve policy. And he will for sure bring this up because he's been in the camp too. And I wrote about this in the newsletter and tweeted a little while ago too, that the state's unemployment data doesn't actually match the federal unemployment data. That's another problem they have. And so he's

mentioned this and it's out there. And so everyone is going to start seeing this stuff and go like, wait a minute, what are you guys talking about? None of this matches up. It's an issue. It's a big issue. And when you politicize data, you will politicize anything else, anything else. No matter how sinister, if you can do it with something like jobs data to fudge an economic recovery or an economic picture of strength, you will do it anywhere else. And Len, spoiler alert,

there too. Well, think about what's at stake, right, this year, right? Considering that, you know, the control of the White House. is it the most important election that our democracy has ever seen it's like that every four years four years we're gonna have the same rhetoric but they're this but really there it's an important year right and important

few months so it makes sense they're going to try to sugarcoat things as much as possible but like i i can't believe there are people out there saying that the economy is doing well and there's a lot of people but people believe it there's a lot doing so well that they have to give there's a new debt relief program literally every week coming from the white house and that's how well it's doing we'll talk about that next i guess the student loan thing because like the fact that they're they're not forced to do it but at least it's something they're content uh considering of doing it shows you that there are people out there that are struggling in this case people that have a lot of student loans people are working two or three jobs homelessness has gone up rent has gone up going to mcdonald's is now costing you like 15 bucks like everything has gone up so much and i can't believe anybody could

look at me or anybody else with this and have a straight face and say yeah the economy is doing well it isn't like there's obviously there's no metric i can see here that is doing a lot but anyways we'll talk about the student loan thing because biden is you know we talked about the the canceling of student loans apparently the university of pennsylvania's penn wharton they released a budget model about this and their estimates show that this student loan cancellation idea is going to cost people a total of 559 billion dollars yep so almost like a little more than half a trillion. Yeah. That's like when you create more, uh, how much has been spent to date?

Yeah. There's actually, I mean, I'm going to go into the weeds here, what they're doing with that. It's not just strictly money. Like it's, it's equipment and equipment that's older.

And that's going to be, what's going to be mothballed, right? Because there's a shelf life for some of this equipment. So they figure might as well just donate it to ukraine and then we'll reorder replacements or order replacements and it's you know that's it's aid towards ukraine but the equipment from what i understand was going to be shelved anyways so wikipedia the uh last bastion of truth on the internet uh says that since january 2022 western nations have pledged more than $380 billion US in aid to Ukraine.

So it's probably five times that in real life. Plus when you add in the money laundering, it's probably 10 times. We've got to throw some earmarked stuff in there too for all sorts of pet causes all around the world.

Nothing for the border, but everyone else. I could have swore it was like officially like like almost a trillion or out of trillion i guess i'm way off i'm like three times higher i mean who knows who knows how old this is but it's like you know no no i i'm not going to question anyways but with this whole student loan thing what's really messed up is that households that are earning over $300,000 annually will benefit the most from this student loan forgiveness. And one would figure that these are the people that are the least likely that should be given handouts by the government. The study indicates that the plan devised is going to provide help to these people that earn over $312,000.

And that's to the tune of 750,000 households that are in this situation. That's a lot of fucking households that are going to get debt relief that earn a significant amount of money. And so if you break this down, these households are going to receive an average of $25,000 and change in debt relief, which is a decent amount. And as opposed to overall average is going to be around $5,000. So there's a lot of people out there that have small amounts of debt that is going to get the relief. But there are people out there that earn a lot of money that have a lot of debt, they probably paid off if they are, you if they properly budget their expenses they're going to get a lot of relief and the taxpayers are going to be bearing the cost of this it just seems like to me that this student loan debt relief thing has not been designed well

to be as efficient as possible to help out the people that need it the most you know that let's be honest there are people out there that are just totally they have no hope whatsoever those are the ones that if they are going to do this those are the ones that they should be doing it but then again this is an acceleration policy so i say fucking bring it on and let everybody get the money yeah what are your thoughts i think debt relief like we said a million times on this show it misses the problem people who need the relief by and large are incapable of using the relief to get out of their dire economic situation, period, end of story. I've seen this a million times over the years. Floyd Maranescu, who I think is a bright guy, disagrees with me on this, but I

think the evidence will become overwhelming when we start just handing out money to only people who need it for two reasons. One, because handing out money, as you mentioned, is inflationary as a result. And when you give people money at that level, you know, over and over and over again, you wind up with significant inflation in goods and services and really puts those people further behind. They don't care about that because they're in a position where they can't put food on the table or whatever, or their debt is like too crippling to save for a house. So it's not immediately apparent to them, but it will become apparent.

And then they will clamor, whine, cry, and protest for more money and invariably get it because that swath of the population is getting bigger and bigger as we saw with the capital gains changes here. And we've seen it as we're talking about now with the debt relief stuff in the States, just keeps coming because more and more people want it and need it. At least they perceive that they want it and need it. And as a result, you're just going to have to keep printing. And I think this is really the, at the end of the day, this is the thing that Bitcoin is relying on. Bitcoin can do nothing else. Bitcoin could go 100% runes and still succeed because the other side of the equation is just never going to learn its lesson.

The spending is never going to stop. The printing is never going to stop and the handouts are never going to stop because everyone is thinking about the next vote. Everyone is thinking about the next election. Everyone is thinking about the swath of people that needs money and that's why people just keeps getting bigger and bigger. It's a no brainer. People are not in Bitcoin.

I just simply do not understand why at this point. Everyone, even the no coiners can see that the printing will never stop. I had some friends over on Saturday after we won football and we were talking a bit about this stuff. And even the guys who get the printing thing, they're just like, yeah, but I don't see how Bitcoin is going to make a difference. And it's a conversation I don't even get into it anymore because I just don't think it's that valuable to do so. They will get it. They will get it at some point because everything else will just be on fire at a rate that they cannot ignore anymore. While Bitcoin churns out another couple of Bitcoin every 10 minutes, the blocks keep coming, the transactions are confirmed.

It's stability that people want, and they think they can get it by just a couple more bucks in their bank account from big pop of government, but it's just not the way it works. And soon enough, they'll realize that. And I think we're getting closer to that every day. Policies like this and other similar debt forgiveness, inflationary policies will contribute to that understanding at some point.

When money is no longer tied to a particular item like gold, for instance, then anybody that has control of the money could then fund whatever they want and then provide the relief to some or essentially just pass the buck to the next generation. That's really what inflation is. You're spending today and you're letting the next group of people deal with it. How they deal with it is just add more inflation.

It's true. The 100% runes thing is kind of a joke, but really, Len, like I just said in the chat, the other side is the Washington generals. They cannot win. Even when you try and give them a hint on policy, they just don't take the hint. They don't do it, right?

We're all just sitting here spinning the ball on our fingers while the clock runs out, and they refuse to take it. It's just the way it goes. We're so far removed from having redeemable dollars, like redeeming dollars for gold. Oh, yeah. And it's not like I'm talking about 1971. I'm the 30s 1932 i think it was up until then you could there was a promissory note you could take that and get that note exchange for gold yeah and so you're talking 90 some years since we've had that so the norm is that there's this is money that is essentially it's just a piece of paper that what is it attached to who the hell knows nothing it's

just a belief that there's value tied to it it's right this is just for generations it's been like this and so until you're able to deal with and tie it to a hard money like make so i make this hard money that this may be a promissory note for bitcoin or for gold for whatever the fuck it is then you're going to be spending money and you'll be very spending money very carefully but until then it's easy just to you know i'll just add a few more here and exactly here exactly yeah that's just a reality elizabeth warren for instance let's talk about a couple of things that she's talked about and one of them came out today it's fake though it's fake oh it's fake then i won't even talk about that yeah so

let's talk about her desire to break up apple i can't believe she wants to she's saying she wants to to break up the monopoly the smartphone monopoly that Apple has. And I've done some research. So from various sources, forgive me if I got this wrong. It seems like Apple's market share in the United States lies in the vicinity of 60 to 65% for the smartphone market. And Android, I guess guess makes up the the rest and globally apple is somewhere in the vicinity of 20 to 25 and android makes up the rest so i have no way to verify this information there's no note i could draw upon so again forgive me if i'm wrong so based on what i see she should be

going after both apple and google right but yeah it's just the way i'm looking at it and she wants she wants to include she says people in the apple texting ecosystem where non-apple users are given the green text appear experience is that correct is that what happens if it's just an sms message yeah like if you have an iphone the bubble is blue but there's like encryption and some other kind of quality of life features that you don't enjoy if you're just sending someone an SMS message. Which, by the way, is a carrier issue, not a tech issue.

The carriers could do this and implement something broadly between all phones. They don't because no one's asking for it. So go away, Liz Warren. She's going after Apple because the justice department has launched an antitrust lawsuit against apple back in march and the basis of this lawsuit is that apple has engineered an illegal monopoly in the smartphone sector and the practices that they are pushing out are hurting competitors and keeping prices high well there's a reason why Apple products are high in terms of cost users,

Apple users. They want Apple products. There's brand loyalty there. Also, Apple spent a record 29.9, almost $30 billion in R and D in 2023. That's a record for them for spending an R and D plus they spend a considerable amount

in marketing as well. So there is some justification as to why the devices cost so much, but I'm not a fan of apple. I've never, I haven't been a fan of apple for a long time, but I have to acknowledge that this is in a, this is an American success story For sure. And why would we, or why would there be any effort to forcefully break it up? The only thing that's going to happen,

it's going to push international competition to invade the United States. And that could have even more drastic impact on privacy. Not that I'm saying Apple is the most private option out there, but at least it's a company that could potentially be controlled domestically rather

than an international company that is theoretically run by the CCP. I find it very odd that Elizabeth Warren would voice her displeasure about Apple. This is truly an American success story. I don't know. What the fuck?

What do I know? I'm in my basement and I'm not a senator, so maybe she's looking things differently than I do what the fuck i don't really have much to add to this except that this is a you know latest in a long line of just bad decisions and weird causes and weird hills to die on from warren for the thinking man like i just don't understand why anyone would villainize apple everyone the thing is, by saying Apple has a monopoly, like you said, you're implicating Google as well in the Android ecosystem. The other question is, Len, how many Android forks are there?

It's not like you can't just make another Android fork and try and do better on a device. There's other manufacturers. But no one can eat into Apple's dominance because the products aren't as good. And no one can eat into Apple's dominance because the products aren't as good and no one can eat into Google's dominance because the products aren't as good. No one's stopping you from getting in. It's not like the Canadian grocers

or anything. There's no phone cartel in the States. Excuse me, there's no phone cartel in the States. Anyone could do this. It's hard to get in, of course. It's difficult to build a product that's going to usurp Apple. We've talked before about how things have to be 10x better to draw people away from sticky ecosystems.

But it's not a legal issue. I mean, these guys love talking about antitrust. I mean, they're suing Blizzard and Activision and Apple and Microsoft. There's bigger fish to fry, I think, for these guys. Don't you? Debt service going up by $100 billion every month, US national debt adding about a trillion every 100 days, whatever that number is.

These guys are not serious people. The country's falling apart. What are we doing here? The data's made up. Think about that. Where's the protest? Where's the congressional letter for that? There isn't one. It's weird, weird. I shouldn't even say weird it's like expected right but it's

still uh no it's not it's bizarre i i would never have predicted it i predicted something as bizarre as this but figuring out this like it's you have to be nostradamus to figure to fucking predict this from her like i i don't know anyways let's go to notable north because sure there's a few stories we're getting kind of late in this show the canadian budget came out last week and there's been a ton of feedback on this and i'll give some highlights some very high level highlights on this the budget is focusing on for the most part affordable housing that seems to be a thing they're looking at younger people up there. That's the target of this budget. They even were mentioning, Friedland mentioned in the House of Commons, modular housing. So that's an interesting concept.

And also there's incentives for first-time homebuyers, opportunities to expand and build more homes. So that's really the gist of it. I like the end kits message. So one of the more interesting inclusions in the budget is exploring new measures such as the halal mortgage. And in March 2024, the government undergone or has undergone consultation to expand on services to diverse communities. So I'm not sure how this halal mortgage will play out. But it's something that they're looking for options moving forward. Also part of the budget is a reported deficit for this

year of around $40 billion. And if you look at the projection for the next two years, it's going to be $38.9 billion for next year and $38.9 billion in two years. So essentially it's $40 billion rounding it up. So in three years, the estimates show they're going to be tacking on another $120 billion to the debt. And interestingly to note is tax rates

do not change for personal or corporate taxes but as of june 2024 there'll be a change to capital gains inclusions and joey and i were talking about this before the show so the capital gains realization will be applied for individuals that have over 250 000 in capital gain realizations and at that point it will be subject to two-thirds tax rate this is up from one-third corporations and trust will be subjected to two-thirds tax tax rates under capital gains regardless of the amount so they're realized capital gains capital uh gains for that year even if it's ten dollars it's going to be taxed at the two-thirds rate this is from what i understand if i'm wrong correct, it's going to be taxed at the two-thirds rate. This is from what I understand. If I'm wrong, correct me.

That's about right. That's about right. So that's basically the highlights of the budget. There's been a lot of feedback. I know that you maybe want to say something about it. So I set the table, and there you go, Joey. Go nuts. The capital gains thing drives me nuts.

And I will admit that it affects me a little more than some other people probably because my father's got a couple of properties. But the thing that bothers me is that, and this is going to go for anyone. I know there's a bunch of you guys in the audience who have small businesses, for example, or cottages. How many Canadians have cottages? A ton of people have vacation homes, little trailers and stuff like that they bought. The government wants you to pay capital gains tax on that to fund programs that are not delivering services at the level they should be, period, end of story. That's not really that controversial, nor is it necessarily an attack on the current government. It's been in the works for a long time. We've seen a decline in services as population has gone up

because it's hard to scale these things. The question that you have to ask yourself as a Canadian is why would you invest here either your time, your currency, your effort, put roots down if they're going to treat you like a second class citizen, if they're going to punish success? I heard a great quote, Len, that the problem we're seeing with budgets like this is that although the middle class is dying, the answer is not to try and make everyone middle class. That's what this tries to do, or it looks like that.

I'll give you an example. If you own a small business, it's probably a huge, chunky retirement plan. And if you were planning on selling that business and getting the capital gains tax, the old rate, to fund your retirement or downsize from your cottage when you retire or sell your primary residence, move to your car, whatever. These things are now going to be taxed to the higher rate. That's going to really affect your retirement plan. And it takes effect in what, a month or something like that? What was it? Two months. Two months. Two months.

Two days. So you got 60 days or so to make these plans to try and avoid taxes that you've spent your whole life thinking were not going to be that big a deal and that you'd be able to retire based on the hard work you put in and the good decisions you made. They're telling you no now. This idea that it's going to affect 40,000 people in Canada, it's flat out wrong. It's wrong for two reasons. One, because capital gains above 250,000, it's not the same 40,000 people every year who are doing these things. And two, because as I mentioned in a tweet, there's about to be a huge transfer of real estate wealth in Canada from the boomers to their kids. And what should I be forced to do with the property my dad has? Even if he only had one house,

right? Even your parents that live in a house. If they gave you the house, you get taxed on that, okay? Unless you sell it. And if you sell the house, you still get taxed on the inheritance gains. You're going to get more than $250,000 in gains for the house. You're going to get taxed on that. Is it really fair that your parents spend their whole lives working, paying a mortgage, and then want to give you the house when they pass away as sort of a last bit of aid to you and your family, your spouse, your grandkids, your kids, whatever. And all of a sudden now it's taxed at a higher level. That's not fair.

The implication is that the government is basically forcing you to go down with the ship and the CAD is going to go down. That is the ship that's sinking. Keith Dicker mentioned this before on our show and he's talked about on Looney Hour too, that markets, although they may not express risk in rates necessarily, they will express risk in currency. And the currency is already teetering at 70 cents or something like that. There's not really much below this. I'm not a chart guy all the time, but look at that chart, it's not much below 70 cents. And I heard another guy this week on Market Huddle, shout out to whichever listener turned me on to that Market Huddle episode where they talked about

the Canadian dollar. You're getting into territory where the dollar, the loonie, is not a currency you can be in, even if you're a Canadian. If you start getting into that territory, you're going to run into more problems. Because Canada doesn't produce anything, we are a country of importers. If you can't pay in Canadian dollars for imports, your standard of living is going to go down even further. And you wind up in the spiral that, by the way, we were probably already in, unfortunately, where the standard of living becomes so low that people leave. And then when people of means leave the tax-based windows, you have to bring in people from the third world to help grow your GDP, but they don't produce anything of value. And then what? You're in this downward whirlpool, and it's just sucking you in. Everything you do contributes to a negative outcome.

It's not good. And I'm not doing it justice. You could read in the newsletter. I left an archive link so you don't have to pay the Globe and Mail that rag, any kind of subscription fee. Derek Holt, who writes for Scotiateconomics, he's their lead economist. He's a genius. He's writing here, the title of the article is The Budgets and the Best Interests of Canada's Youth. Give me a break. And like Glenn says, he talks a lot about the debt, the piling on, the structural sort of certainty that the debt will continue and deficit spending will continue, it's not good.

And what do you do about that if you're a kid? Unfortunately, it seems to me that in the past, what kids have done, kids, let's say under 25s or under 30s who don't own homes, specifically people who don't own homes, I think is the demographic this is targeted to. You can't afford a home just because people become forced sellers because there's still too many people out there who can afford to buy these homes at depressed prices before you can. And the other thing that I think is important here is that the budget, and we kind of talked about this before last week, but it bears repeating,

this idea that the budget allows for more supports for people who want to buy homes because of the first-time homebuyer savings account, it's not the account that's the problem. It's that I don't have the inputs for the account. I don't have the money to put in the account every week. I'm working a ton of money or a ton of hours to stay afloat, pay my rent, pay my car payments, all that stuff. It's not that I don't have the account. It's that the account has no money to get put into it. And the second thing that I really think is telling, and I think it should be concerning for a lot of Canadians, the average age in 2022 for a Canadian to buy his or her first home was 36 years old. If you withdraw your entire retirement savings at 36 to max of 60,000, let's say,

and put it onto your down payment, you have to pay that back. Chances are at rates where they are, the cost of homes where they are, and incomes where they are, you're going to have to take some of that as income and get taxed on it at the end of the 10 or 15 years, whatever it is when it has you all replaced. And you're going to be earning more money then. So you'd be taxed at a higher rate as well on the income. But the real kicker is that if you extend amortizations to 30 or 35 years and the first home on average two years ago was bought at 36, let's say it's 39 now, 38, 39 now. Are you really going to work until you're 74 years old to pay off your mortgage? Is that the life you want to have? And then at the end of it, when you pay the mortgage off,

you're going to give it to your kids and they're going to pay tax on it or not be able to keep it? It's not good. That's not first world stuff, in my opinion. It's not fair, honestly, to good people who, especially the boomers and their parents, built the fucking country from nothing over the last 75 years. They want it all back. I say we don't give it to them. I think you got to think about where you spend your money and put your investing, you know, and invest your time and your resources.

Because now there is no doubt about whose money and resources they want. And the answer is yours. And you got to decide whether that's something you want to be a part of long term. Do you recall when I was talking about that there is going to be more people in a group that are renters versus homeowners? We've talked about this a bunch. They will vote to take every fucking penny you have for themselves. So this is democracy, right? If you have a group of, this is this is democracy right if you have a group of this is the reality of it my hottest take my hottest take is that people who think people who think

capitalism has failed are missing the thing that has failed is democracy that's what's failed that that is the problem and i you know spicy maybe but i'm i'm not not putting those two two together because well capital i can't vote capitalism i could vote democracy is a political system capitalism is an economic system so there are two different things so with respect to democracy that's what it is you're essentially just trying to placate to the mass audience out there and have them vote in this type of policy if maybe good or bad policy whatever it is it's trying to attract the majority of voters and as we go into this every day that passes there are going to be more people in a category of renters yes than there are in homeowners. That's the reality. So the boomers that have homes,

they'll die off, unfortunately. Kids will inherit it. Some will sell, some will not. The ones that sell, well, that, you know, just another one that goes out there, it's no longer, somebody else is going to get it and maybe fucking BlackRock, whoever gets it. But the reality is we're going to have more people coming into Canada too that are also going to be in the renter's category.

Granted, they're not going to be able to vote for at least, I think, four years. And that's if they decide to become a citizen. But that group of people is also growing as well. So if you look at it, you have more people in that category. And if you could draw them and not attract them to come and vote. Yeah. But this is the, this is the problem, right?

Like everybody else. Yeah. You're no, you're a hundred. You're spot on. You have it. You have it dead on. You're right over the target. And the problem with the sort of champagne left is that they're voting what they think

is the right thing. You know, they're voting with their hearts, but now you're at this point where you've hit a tipping point and the people who you wanted to bring in and support and give social welfare to, now they're voting to take your money. So what do you do? What do you do? You have to play.

What do you do? Play the rules because you can't skirt it. You can't get around you do like by the rules is you can't skirt it you can't get around it play by the rules and like everybody else that does it like corporations that have been evading taxes and using uh tax loopholes to advantage people will do the same primary residence is exempt from capital gains i'm sure people are going to try to use this as much as possible as long as this remains an option i think i said it last week or a couple weeks ago that eventually this loophole this advantage is going to be closed tfsa will be closed by the way like well maybe not tfsa i can see capital gains on they might not you know what they'll do before

before they before they close tfsa and rsp They'll actually force you to invest in people have earned. There is no fairness in telling people who just did the rational thing. I can't be in cash. It's being debased. Inflation is too heavy. I got to be in some hard asset. They put their hard-earned money in the hard asset. And now you're telling them like, by the way, you have two months to sell it. Or when you sell it, it's going to incur an incredibly difficult to deal with penalty. And if you die, we're going to impose that penalty on your children, whether they keep the house or sell the house, they're still going to pay capital gains on the inheritance. We will send someone to appraise the property. They will pay for the value of the property in their capital gains inheritance. And it's insane. The real thing is like business owners. I think about Dundas here on King Street.

There's a bunch of little restaurants, little cheese shops, little bakeries that are all run by people who are local. You're going to tell them when they sell now that they can't reap the benefits of the business they've worked so hard for. These people poured their whole lives into this. You don't get two fucking cracks at the bit in this life. You get one. These people work for 50 fucking years at the same business and you're telling them now they got to pay taxes when they sell it. That's not fair. It's plain and simple. And these are the people it affects. It's not the Bill Gates types as described by Freeland. I think that's a mischaracterization. There's a lot of people who are just average Canadian families who now are in trouble. And explaining that to people is incredibly difficult. It's amazing the

narrative control that we've seen exercised here in the mainstream. But thank God there are people like Derek Holt and others out there, I think you and me, who are just trying to paint a clearer we've seen exercise here uh in the mainstream but thank god there are people like derrick holt and others out there i think you and me who are just trying to paint a clearer picture like this is not what it seems it's much worse and directionally it should worry you it should worry you joy there's one more story that we i know we're getting late but i we can't end it without let's do it let's do it cras is going to make an effort to go after people who don't claim their bitcoin and shitcoin transactions which should be taxable and taxed the budget that was tabled institutes new measures to implement rules requiring more transparency in bitcoin and

shitcoin transactions and it's quoted here just as crypto assets pose financial risks to the middle class middle class canadians the rapid growth of crypto asset markets poses significant risks to tax evasion this is wording straight out of the budget so in the beginning i'm actually getting mad like my heart is beating faster than it should be at 8 45 on a fucking monday night but go ahead but people need to really need to know this you should be paying attention to this if you're listening i know it's here the other show but fucking pay attention this is yeah so because beginning of 2026 canada will have implemented something called the crypto asset reporting framework this was developed by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. And here's where it gets really fun.

Exchanges in Canada will need to provide information to CRA. The information includes customer name, address, data burst. So when you're making a buy for Bitcoin, this information is going to be relayed to CRA. And the budget puts in some interesting language, such as looking into, this is very interesting, Joey, looking into digital assets like Bitcoin, which are what they say appropriate as qualified investment for registered saving plans. So they're looking into the option of potentially having Bitcoin or other digital assets included in these registered savings plans. I presume that is going to be an RSP. That's interesting that they're thinking about and looking into that.

But the other one that I mentioned where exchanges are going to be forced to provide this information to CRA, all I can say is KYC free is sorry kyc free is available right now there's no there's no policy against there's no rules against there's no laws against it you could buy kyc free bitcoin for the time being i suggest do it before it could be too late i think do it the other thing we talked about before the show is that there's a uh note in there that they're going to start asking in your tax reporting, individual tax reporting, for you to list your buys. I'll let you guess why the CRA wants to know how much you bought year over year. It's not so they can just look at the list and admire it. It's because at some point they're going to, I think, come for unrealized gains. That's not so they can just look at the list and admire it. It's because at some point they're going to, I think, come for unrealized gains. That's my guess. They want to discourage us any

way they can. And again, Bitcoiners are their own piece of the population, a very small one. But I think as we've talked about before, we're net producers in a lot of ways. We do a lot of good things. We're smart people. We're time preference focused and we're making good decisions in a lot of places in our lives. Driving Bitcoiners out of the country is a bad idea. And I actually want to talk to Carlo Campisi. I'm going to invite him on the show at some point in the not too distant future. I might try and talk to him in Montreal actually in person. He works for ShakePay and engages in policy discussions with the government. I would love to hear his thoughts on this. Same with Mills and those guys

at the Canada Coalition. What the fuck have you been doing for the last two years that this is in the fucking budget? What have you been doing? Going to conferences, taking pictures? What have you been doing? Tell me what wins you have when this is the output that the public sees. I got to know, why should I give money to these institutions, these organizations, if this is what the product is, right? I just don't, I don't get it. I do not get it. How are these guys claiming that they're influencing anything?

This is about as negative a policy outcome as you could imagine. And I just, it blows me away that anyone gives these guys money or credence it's a waste of time it's proven to be a waste of time so far let's see the changes i know you have no opinion because you don't want to get any shit but i'm telling you no i just don't know i mean it could have been theoretically it could have been worse if they weren't around i don't know is i don't i haven't talked to them i don't know what they've been doing, what they've been saying, who they were talking to. There's a lot of things I just don't know. It's just one big question mark for me.

And there's not enough information for me to connect dots. So that's why I'm just going to leave it as it is. Yeah, fair enough. Let's get the fuck out of here. I got to walk my dog again. He's absolutely insane. God bless everyone.

Thanks for coming tomorrow. Tom and Aiden, I'll probably stream it at like 11 o'clock. I got to see what my workday is like, and I'll have to book some PTO, which I don't mind doing for you guys. Okay. I'm all about that.

Um, but yeah, tune in, enjoy it. And, uh, we'll see you, uh,

see you when we see you until then, I guess. I'll see you in two weeks. Yeah. So take care. Don't be a cock. I, I actually.

Don't be a cuck. Don't forget, everybody, lots of other stuff on CBP Media Network, including Two Whites and a Blue. Me, Joey, my brother-in-law, Mike, and our friend Will talk about all the problems millennials are having with finance, romance, and just getting by. If you like CBP, if you like the NHL 94 podcast, I guarantee you'll like that one. Search for it.

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