The Canadian Bitcoiners Podcast - Bitcoin News With a Canadian Spin - The CBP #176 (Other Notable News Stories) - Markets Roll Over, Rate Expectations, Turmoil Overseas

Episode Date: August 14, 2024

FRIENDS AND ENEMIES  Join us for some QUALITY Bitcoin and economics talk, with a Canadian focus, every Monday at 7 PM EST.   From a couple of Canucks who like to talk about how Bitcoin will impact Canada. As always, none of the info is financial advice. Website: ⁠www.CanadianBitcoiners.com⁠ Discord: https://discord.com/invite/YgPJVbGCZX A part of the CBP Media Network: ⁠www.twitter.com/CBPMediaNetwork This show is sponsored by: easyDNS - ⁠⁠https://easydns.com/⁠⁠ EasyDNS is the best spot for Anycast DNS, domain name registrations, web and email services. They are fast, reliable and privacy focused. You can even pay for your services with Bitcoin! Apply coupon code 'CBPMEDIA' for 50% off initial purchase Bull Bitcoin - ⁠⁠https://mission.bullbitcoin.com/cbp⁠⁠ The CBP recommends Bull Bitcoin for all your BTC needs. There's never been a quicker, simpler, way to acquire Bitcoin. Use the link above for $20 bones, and take advantage of all Bull Bitcoin has to offer. D-Central Technologies - https://d-central.tech/ Your home for all things mining! Whether you need a new unit, a unit repaired, some support with software, or you want to start your own wife-friendly home mining operation, the guys at D-Central Tech are ready to help. With industry leading knowledge and expertise, let the D-Central team help you get started mining the hardest money on Earth.

Great job. 47-31. People were talking to me about that ending too this past week. It's a great ending. If it wasn't so unfriendly for a t-shirt, I'd say we should put it on a shirt. I think it's

t-shirt friendly. I wear my CP t-shirts all over the place. You don't wear it to work. I do wear it to work. Don't be a cuck. I can't wear don't be a cuck anywhere. You can wear it to work. I do wear it to work. But don't be a cuck. I can't wear don't be a cuck anywhere. I have to wear it to work. Yeah, you can.

Where? You can wear it everywhere else. To a normal setting. Okay. I can't see why not. Anyways, Bank of Japan. Yeah. They came out this past year.

They've been busy, huh? They've been moving markets. Fucking incredible. They said they don't plan to raise rates anytime in the near future. And this is a response to what happened one week ago today, Joey. In fact, that the markets were just going nuts. They decided to raise rates slightly. It almost caused a global economic meltdown as a result.

Just about. from a slight increase of rates the deputy governor of the bank did say they're going to relook at things once the markets have stabilized so you know i'm reading between the lines i'm thinking somewhere between the years of 2285 and 2295 is when the markets will stabilize and look to be raising rates so this thing is going to be staying like this for a long fucking time officially the inflation rate in japan for the last two months was reported at 2.8 percent yeah that's for may and june and the bank's goal is to get to two percent and now without changing rates so there's going to be a lot of fudging of numbers to get to that point but once laundry is done, just jamming out to that.

It's done, yeah, man. The Bank of Japan and their rates staying where it is, it's total fucking bullshit what's happening here. The bank's job is, I checked their website, single mandate to ensure sustainable price stability. That's the only thing that the Bank of Japan is there to do. That's in their mandate. Now, it's now slowly morphed into not crashing global markets.

Yeah, secondary mandate. Keep this whole thing from burning down. It's like this thing forked and there was no consensus. They just fucking did it. We're fucking now bought into this new coin. But either way, man man it's fucking bullshit like the the amount of pressure that's going on here and you know it's it's almost like external pressure that just being done to maintain a currency like it's a fucking joke um good for them but they're trying to achieve but they're

not going to be able to sustain this for much longer i always said that this is the canary in a coal mine we almost had it last week but it's going to happen able to sustain this for much longer. I always said that this is the canary in a coal mine. We almost had it last week, but it's going to happen soon. I think Fiat games, right? What else can you say about this? You're you are watching in real time, a central bank having to put its tail between its legs and say, sorry, we raised, you can not, you can guarantee that we're not going to raise again the rest of the

year. Just like kind of stabilize things, not even really stabilize them. I don't know if you saw today, gold and oil up 2% and 4%, I think, respectively. There's a lot of signs that things are not quite as stable as everyone says. And I think the thing to take away from this if you're a Bitcoiner, a year or two years ago, any of this stuff would have sent Bitcoin down by 50% or 60%. No questions asked. And you would have expected it. We would have come on the air and laughed about it, blah, blah, blah. This time, what did you get? I'm pretty sure the name of the candle is a doji something or a star,

like this thing that has a huge long wick, but it gets bought right back up basically to the price it was at on a weekly candle. That's where we ended up. Can't beat that. That's pretty solid, man. You got to like the way that we handled that price action and the way that we handled that instability. To me, Len, great, happy, no problem. Japan can do whatever it wants. If it wants to burn this thing down, let it burn it down. If it wants to stabilize it, let them stabilize it.

I don't care. What I care about is the way that my Bitcoin reacted. Fantastic. This is why we don't dabble in fiat markets. I mean, I just admitted to dollar-cost averaging MSTR, but I have a tax-free account. We got to use those things. We can't let the-

Do you? Yeah, we can't let the- There's going to be a time you're going to be locked out of that. I know, probably. I know. Retail always comes on the short end of the stick, right? And you think that you're going to be made whole?

Man, no. I'll sell. I would guess sometime in the next year or two, honestly. But anyway, it doesn't matter that the point is that in general, central banks are trying so hard to control an increasingly volatile situation with,

with old levers that no longer work from an era where there was no messaging, no communication, no Twitter, stuff like that. It's done. Now everyone is talking all the time, 24 seven, huge trillion dollar assets are trading 24 seven gold, oil, Bitcoin

bonds, you name it all trading 24 seven. Everyone can see what the reaction is. There is no hiding anymore. And, uh, these guys are still playing an old game and it really showed last week. Um, but I think it's going to show again when they try and raise presumably in 25 right so let's see 23 so i guess they say they say they're not going to raise the rest of this year so that you know that potentially means next year i mean i know but still they say when the market's stabilized now they see what happens when they raise rates they have data recent data as for what's going to be the reaction. And they're not going to want to go ahead and be the trigger point as for causing the global meltdown to happen.

They'll have somebody else be the scapegoat, but not them. But really like, like you say, they painted themselves into a corner, right? Like every time they want, some things just have to happen on their own yeah you know if

there's a shitty job report for instance or several shitty job reports and the economy's tanking you have to a couple of uh a couple of quarters and you go into a recession that's pretty traditional no we don't do that like look at the canadian job report from last week you know net loss of a thousand jobs well we lost 42 000 private sector jobs and gained 41 000 public sector i'm sure that's just a coincidence those numbers just you know yeah it's just it's unbelievable that anyone buys the data dumps at this point well speaking of like that's it's a good segue because the jobs report in canada it's like you mentioned it's not looking great because in terms of the private sector jobs being lost and the public sector jobs being created, it's even, Stephen, just about a thousand difference in the end.

Better Dwelling is a great website. I would recommend everybody check it out. They did some analysis of this the year over here sorry year over year growth of the private sector jobs came in flat at 0.6 percent yeah now if you take into consideration the rate of growth of the population this is troubling furthermore they mentioned that one in four people are now relying on the public sector this is either people that are directly or indirectly working for the government one in four people and the year over year for those type of jobs the growth of that stands at 4.8 percent that far outpaces the 0.6 percent of the private sector also of note there is a decline a noticeable decline for self-employed

individuals over the year the number of self-employed individuals did increase by 2.1 but the number is trending downward if you look at it over a longer period of time since 2020 the public sector this is a good one joy since 2020 the public sector added four jobs for every self-employed person job lost that's an interesting stat sure it is yeah but then we also have youth unemployment too on top of all this youth unemployment has jumped substantially if you look at the chart for the past three years you'll see it has jumped since the beginning of this year january 2024 started at 11 which is high but now as of july 2024 which is the latest data we have it's 14.2 so that's it and if you look at that chart it's

up and to the right and it is sharp up we talked about that last week it's the highest it's basically ever been and it's not going to get any better because now we're at the end of summer so student jobs likely will cease for some for some golf courses lifeguards yeah yeah cne yeah so right funnel funnel funnel cake distribution yeah that's going to be uh uh that's gonna be over it's just when you look at this and you digest everything and it seems like everything is not looking all that great the population's jumping and we'll talk about that in the next story but with respect to the jobs report man there's lots that can be said and nothing good unfortunately i really feel good

about this set of data and the stats and the number of people now talking about the percentage of Canadians that work for the public sector, because you and me have been on this beat for two years. And we said two years ago, when the number was a little closer to 20%, that if you actually look at all the people who are either working for the public sector, receiving funds from the public sector for their day-to-day life, or retired and receiving a pension on the public dime, that number was actually closer to 50%. That number now has got to be what? 60? Well, higher than 50. It's for sure higher than 50. And it's for sure higher than just the 5% jump in the public sector

work because more people have retired and we've brought in a lot of dependents through the immigration program. So that number is very high. And then when you talk about too, when you think about GDP, this is the thing I don't think people realize. GDP is not going negative here because we keep on bringing in immigrants. But the problem actually, like Kev said, is that we are just spending too much money on all these things. And it's not productive spend. It's not infrastructure spend. It's not school spend. It's not infrastructure spend. It's not school spend. It's not hospital spend. It's just administrative spend. And yeah, I'm not saying every administrator is necessarily a zero-value job.

I think there's a lot of good administrators and a lot of good public servants at all levels of government, municipal, federal, provincial, you name it. But it can't get to 20% or 25%. It's just too high. Because at 25% of people who are employed working for the government and 20% of the entire population collecting a pension of some kind, you run into a problem with productivity and being able to take money from productive people to pay for non-productive Canadians. These bigger problem though, Len, is that if we cut those jobs,

we lose tons of GDP and we can't lose that GDP. And if we consider even stuff like baby bonuses, for example, how many people are receiving baby bonuses? That's a whole other kind of percentage of GDP that we don't talk about, right right but i'm pretty sure you get a baby bonus until your kid is 18 you would know are you getting a baby bonus you have a daughter yeah but she's not 18 no but up until she's 18 you get something but you know what the thing is i i can't be like i think there's if you earn too much if you still get something don't you do you i can't remember i'm pretty sure you do i'm pretty sure there's no zero baby bonus and so let's say you know even if whatever even if you earn too much, if you still get something, don't you? Do you? I can't remember. I'm pretty sure you do. I'm pretty sure there's no zero baby bonus. And so let's say, you know, even if, whatever, even if you earn too much, there's a lot of people who don't and they get baby bonuses, like all these things add up when it comes to GDP. And so the question is not any, the question

now is not, well, how many Canadians work for the government? No. The question we have to transition to is what percentage of GDP is actually just fake money, fake productivity, transfer payments, baby bonuses, pension savings fund, our pension funds, all this stuff. We got to know what that number is. Len, I bet you that number. Are you ready for this? All right. I bet you that number is 70%. Then if you add real estate, I bet you that number jumps to 80%. And if 80% of your economy is either people getting paid by the government, people working for the government, or people selling houses to each other, that's not good. That's really not good.

And I want Better Dwelling to find that out. I don't have the bandwidth to find that out. I don't have the bandwidth to figure that out. Although probably if I spent a day doing it, I could figure something out. But that number has got to be super high. That's the one we should be concerned about. Because GDP per capita is one boogeyman that's starting to come out of the closet a little bit. But that other one, how much GDP is actually just pretend productivity, that's going to knock people's socks off. When that starts to come out, there's not going to be too many tweets about how strong the economy is, I don't think.

Pretty sure those will stop rather quickly. So interesting stat I got about population, Joey. In the last three years, Ontario's population grew by a total of 1.2 million people. Insane. And they're all in Toronto, Brampton, Oakville, Mississauga. Yeah, a good chunk will go to the greater Toronto area. 100, 200 kilometer radius, something like that. Not a very big area.

And in the first month, six months of 2024, Ontario's population grew by 200,000 people. So if you prorate this, there is not a noticeable change. It's basically it's 1.2 million over three years period of time. So yeah, so it's not looking all that good in terms of lowering the number of people coming to Canada, but it seems like that's the intention by the government. And so if they are going to be changing this, it hasn't yet happened. It hasn't transpired in the first six months of this year, at least within Ontario.

And as per a Toronto Star article, Ontario experienced a decade's worth of population growth in just three years. And it says in the article that we can't support that growth without building more homes even a toronto star is getting on this bandwagon as well because they mentioned that one bedroom apartments are now renting for over two thousand dollars in the gta man it's a lot of people like 1.2 million i don't know what the percentage of that is going to conestoga but it may be measurable either way they're they're here and uh yeah we have to deal with that many more people driving cars using services like health school and shit like that

it's damaging it's damaging um yeah you know i was saying to my wife the other day that uh it doesn't seem like there's a lot more traffic here than there was a few years ago. But when we go to the cottage now, you used to just get traffic at the 400, bury that sort of interchange there. Now there's traffic just as soon as you get on the 403. There's just way too many people. And how many extra highways were built during that immigration boom you know i wouldn't have a clue the answer is zero materially zero well well come on the big the

big ones the 403 has not been expanded lane wise qbw has not been expanded lane 407 we had in the past 407 has been there forever it's private it was the 90s it came to it there was yeah but in the last in the last two years i'm saying in the last two years i'm saying no but there's i mean you're right in that respect but i just wanted to state we had the 407 and they expanded that quite a bit in the past few years yeah it goes one point north and south from the 407 to the 401 that is a pay it's i forget the name of the highway or number that how that that is recent that is the past 10 years that came into be so it's it's not like building a highway takes forever right like you have to buy the land the point is that there's no planning like building a highway

takes forever that's right building a hospital takes forever building 50 60 70 150 300 schools for a million more people takes forever. We didn't do any of it. We just brought the people in and said, good luck. And now you have these videos by this time that everybody has seen of 20 beds in a basement in Brampton, all these different problems with overcrowding, with immigrant rentals. And sort of, I think, chief among think chief among them honestly len we haven't even seen yet when uh hospitals become overcrowded as boomers really age into their delicate years you know god bless them i hope they don't come soon but um

how do you how do you fix that now is the question i think you have to ask how do you fix it i don't know what is the answer to this is there here yeah people are here yeah and if this was done over a slow enough period of time that the society services and everything could have absorbed just like the way it was done in a previous bunch of years yeah i think it would have been fine but just because everything was accelerated it's don't know. Now forget it. It's just too bad. It kind of reminds me of when you're dealing with municipalities. We'll be quick on this

because I know we're now getting close to... I'm telling... I have some tentacles out there to see when they actually start talking. Apparently, they're having some technical difficulties. Elon King... It's working for me that Twitter is at least for me. Anyways, pop on the pop on

the autos are they talking no no i mean somebody was saying that twitter is down for some folks i can't i can't join the space so i don't know if they're talking is it a space that's going on right now it's on trump's twitter trump is hosting it oh it's he's back on twitter yeah he was tweeting all day today. Fuck off. I'm dead serious. Okay, let's see. No, space not available, it says. So I don't know.

Okay, well, it is what it is. So you know what, Joey? I think with that being said, because it's going to make for shitty audio and shitty video, I think we should end it here. Sure, okay. Listen, enjoy the space, Donald and Elon, and come back tomorrow night. Listen, if you're an audio listener,, and come back tomorrow night. Listen,

if you're an audio listener, I mean, you may or may not be, but I would come to YouTube tomorrow because Morberts is a big chart guy. He told me that. I watched him on Levera, lots of charts, lots of data. I'm going to have some good questions for him that I've been thinking about for a long time and looking into, and I know he's going to have great answers. So please stop in. You will dig you will dig it. And, uh, yeah, until then, take care of yourselves and don't be a cock.