The Canadian Bitcoiners Podcast - Bitcoin News With a Canadian Spin - The CBP #178 (Other Notable News Stories) - Rail Strike, Kennedy and Trump, Cuts Coming

Episode Date: August 28, 2024

FRIENDS AND ENEMIES Join us for some QUALITY Bitcoin and economics talk, with a Canadian focus, every Monday at 7 PM EST. From a couple of Canucks who like to talk about how Bitcoin will impact Canada.... As always, none of the info is financial advice. Website: ⁠www.CanadianBitcoiners.com⁠Discord: https://discord.com/invite/YgPJVbGCZX A part of the CBP Media Network: ⁠www.twitter.com/CBPMediaNetwork This show is sponsored by: easyDNS - ⁠⁠https://easydns.com/⁠⁠EasyDNS is the best spot for Anycast DNS, domain name registrations, web and email services. They are fast, reliable and privacy focused. You can even pay for your services with Bitcoin! Apply coupon code 'CBPMEDIA' for 50% off initial purchase Bull Bitcoin - ⁠⁠https://mission.bullbitcoin.com/cbp⁠⁠The CBP recommends Bull Bitcoin for all your BTC needs. There's never been a quicker, simpler, way to acquire Bitcoin. Use the link above for $20 bones, and take advantage of all Bull Bitcoin has to offer. D-Central Technologies - https://d-central.tech/Your home for all things mining! Whether you need a new unit, a unit repaired, some support with software, or you want to start your own wife-friendly home mining operation, the guys at D-Central Tech are ready to help. With industry leading knowledge and expertise, let the D-Central team help you get started mining the hardest money on Earth.

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 56 56 is that a sign from god okay where where do you want to start with the notables okay let's the this is something i it triggered you when this news came out so i'm sure you're gonna want to fucking go to tangent okay the unrealized tax gains oh my god incredibly that that was from yeah vice president harris um so i can't believe this uh this is so long ago it seemed like it's you know last month history this one the past week right so according to yahoo news for anybody out there that's been living under a rock this would be an annual tax an annual tax on the static wealth of households worth more than 100 million dollars so this tax would be a minimum of 25 of their combined income and unrealized capital gains and they're dubbing this as a
Starting point is 00:00:54 quote-unquote wealth tax so they're going after the you know the ultra rich the wealthy essentially you know they're taxing somebody that made a good bet years ago and didn't sell. I'm looking like a real estate, for instance, and maybe even stocks, right? Like you buy something a very long time ago and you hold on to it and you just watch it run up. And well, either way, $100 million now could easily be reduced to a lower number in the future. You know, it could be brought down to, say, a million dollars, and it would capture a lot of people that are homeowners. And also keep in note that every year the value of the U.S. dollar is going down. Their target is 2%.
Starting point is 00:01:32 Sometimes they miss it quite a bit. So that $100 million, it's very, very far away right now. But maybe one day it won't be very far away. We'll all be captured under it. But either way, it's, you see this and I'm wondering how much time before unrealized income tax is going to have to be included into this. They say, Oh, you might have the ability to earn an income.
Starting point is 00:01:52 They say of a hundred thousand dollars next year, let's tax that already. You better get on it. You better get on it. Unrealized losses. Is this also going to be part of the equation or is this? No, no.
Starting point is 00:02:02 So it's just a one way street. I hardly ever spit out the R word but this is retarded okay and the reason i say that it's it's retarded is actually it was well put by sax on all in on the weekend i know you don't listen to all in so i'll try and summarize it and it's it's something that we all understand anyways but let's talk about it okay the reason that unrealized gains are not taxed is because you're missing really two key features of realizing selling the asset. Number one is that you're actually allowing the market to put a price on the asset. So the book value is different than the price. What does Warren Buffett say? The value you get is different from the price you pay. This is always the case, okay? Anyone who's dealt with Pokemon cards or computer equipment or, I don't know, the collectibles
Starting point is 00:02:52 of any kind, just because the blue book value says one thing doesn't mean that's what you're going to get when you sell. That's number one. This is very important. Number two is that the selling of the asset gives you the liquidity to pay the tax bill. It's proportionate to the value of the item on the market. So when you sell something for $100,000, if the tax bill is 25% and you made 50 grand, you pay the 25% out of the 50 grand and you're done with it.
Starting point is 00:03:20 This is the money that you are giving to the government for taxes is directly related to the actual value of the asset on the market. Without these two things, you can't properly value and can't fairly tax any asset. It just doesn't work. And I know there's a lot of people out there who are saying, wow, actually, what you're seeing here is that it's actually a tax on the extra really super rich, $100 million net worth. You know what Elizabeth Warren said last week after they came out with this proposal? Why me? No, should be $50 million, should be $50 million, not $100 million. She wanted to cut it in half on day one. You think AOC is going to go for 50 or you think she wants to do
Starting point is 00:04:06 25? You know? And what about, uh, what about zero wealth waltz over there on the VP ticket? Guy doesn't have a fucking Pokemon card to his name or a house or a stock. You know, what do you think he wants the, uh, the cutoff to be? You think he wants 25 or you think he wants 12 and a half, you know, before you know it, you know, everyone used to talk about millionaires here in Canada. Everyone's a millionaire now if you got a house. So where's the line? Where do you draw the line on all this stuff? The answer is you draw it right fucking now before it gets out of hand in the States. Now, I got to tell you, Lem, if after the last three days, four days, let's say, between the capital gains thing, the RFK thing, now the Tulsi Gabbard endorsement today, if Trump can't figure out a way to win this election, then the guy just doesn't have what it takes anyways.
Starting point is 00:04:57 The Democrats are really giving this away in a manner that I think people would have thought was impossible six weeks ago. And they're really trying their best. The gains thing is just one of the dumb policies she had. I mean, obviously, we talked about the price controls last week and the gouging and all this other shit. This is not good policy and also not good politics. And you've been keen to point out over the years
Starting point is 00:05:25 that sometimes bad policy is good politics. This is neither. I don't think anyone is super happy about this. But again, the problem is that there's too many have-nots. The policies that have been in place for the last 20 years have led to too many have-nots and everyone just wants to vote for temporary relief, even if it means their long-term demise and that's exactly what this will mean by the way so so it's it's not that everybody doesn't like it there's there are i'm not sure if it's sizable but there are people that do like this type of idea if they don't understand it they love it yeah for sure correct it's just they can't see the trees from the forest and say oh let's tax the ultra rich or whatever you want to call 100 million dollars i want to classify them
Starting point is 00:06:09 people that have that type of wealth let's tax them and use that money to pay for social programs that's that's the idea right right away that's what i hate i hate having to breathe in the mic like that but like the idea you see the like toronto star today in terms of this tax more people toronto star released an article maybe an hour before we started the show to solve the affordability crisis. What we need to do is tax the rich more in Canada. Wow. That's a contrast to an article that came out that they were saying, we'll talk about this, that gosh, we're getting lousy value for the taxes we pay in Canada. So it seems like you're talking from both sides of their face.
Starting point is 00:06:45 That was an opinion piece, the one I mentioned. But with respect to this capital gains tax, I want to stay on this topic. Between this and the price controls on groceries that was discussed a couple of weeks ago or last week's show, it kind of seems, man, this is not what you expect from the United States. These type of initiatives. These type of policies. This is. I don't want to say Soviet Union level stuff. But you know what I mean.
Starting point is 00:07:10 Like it's kind of akin to that. Not the United States man. You got to have. Let capitalism fucking reign supreme. And let the market figure things out. Not force. Prices to go lower on groceries. And not force people that made wealth.
Starting point is 00:07:24 Just because they're holding on to something. And people that made wealth just because they're holding on to something and tax them to the point where they're going to have to sell that asset. And that in itself is going to drive down the cost of those assets moving forward. Hypothetically, if it's going to capture a lot of homes, it comes to a point where a lot more people get captured by this capital gains and people start to have to sell the homes to pay for the tax. What's going to happen to those prices of the the homes it's going to fucking plummet yeah and they're not going to be able to pay for the capital gains tax that which they're trying to pay because they
Starting point is 00:07:53 marked it at a certain price and like you said whatever you sell it for versus the blue book value they could be two different things because supply and demand if there's too much supply well price goes down so you see this kind of stuff it's absolutely insane that they would even consider this now in terms of the democrats shooting themselves in the foot because you know from a few weeks ago like they're it's look where they were a month and a half ago two months ago joey they had biden i know still running they they changed from what did they officially nominate uh over the weekend right at the convention harris is officially so she's which i think was was it last week or two weeks ago the convention
Starting point is 00:08:30 it was this past weekend yeah yeah yeah okay so that's officially so they've done this in a very short period of time with very little resistance right there was nobody from the inside saying like what the fuck's going on this gavin newsom would have been a particular you heard did you hear newsom at the convention having a laugh about how open and transparent the uh yeah replacement process was it was very bottom up he's just fucking laughing with other people about how much of a joke it was now with all this being said with everything being if you had to bet yeah substantial amount of your wealth well on one outcome it's gonna be trump or harris winning so you see i'm i think i said this on the show i'll give you i'll give you the rationale go ahead the voter base for
Starting point is 00:09:19 the left is bigger because people don't understand economics and they want handouts. That voter base is always going to vote left no matter what. The voter base for the right is a little more difficult to pin down. It sort of changes election to election. Sometimes it's on the back of a social issue like abortion. Other times it's on the back of a cultural wedge like war overseas or something like that. But that voter base is never consistent. And the one thing that liberal leftist parties around the world have done well is they've built this base of people who need their help now. Not in five years. They don't have a long-term time horizon. They don't care about overseas wars. They need the check now. That means that when it comes time
Starting point is 00:10:00 to cheat and win, which both parties do, there's a lot less cheating to be done on one side to get the outcome that you want. And I think you see that in a lot of places, whether it's France finessing the system to keep the right out of power, whether it's in the UK with Starmer now, or whether it's in the United States or even here. I would not bet against jt come election uh i just simply would not do it um because of all this stuff and so like i said to tom i think now if i was a betting man i would bet harris for sure for sure and that's if that's if nothing else happens that's if there's no lockdown there's no weird uh you's no weird mass casualty event. Yeah, you're basing it on what you see today. Yeah, yeah.
Starting point is 00:10:52 So I would say I'd bet on Harris for sure. And I'm kind of with you. I can say for certain that she's going to win, but I'm not going to say that Trump is going to win. I'm kind of 50-50 on who's going to win. And even with this being said, so a couple of months ago, I'm not sure exactly when it took place, but we had Biden that had a horrendous debate with Trump. Then he decided either to push or decided to leave. Either way, he stepped aside,
Starting point is 00:11:14 and now they crowned Harris as their candidate. And this happened all in a very short period of time. All the campaigning that was done up until the point where Harris was nominated, it's lost, right? You can't go back in time and have Harris campaign the same way Biden did. So they're doing catch-up. And still with all that, you're saying that they're going to win? That is incredible.
Starting point is 00:11:40 I'm saying they could. The media machine, think about the media machine support. Like nothing else, just the media machine support. Nothing else, just the media machine support. It's unbelievable the way they talk about the joy of the campaign and how she's bringing back positive vibes to the White House and she's going to fix American politics. The idea that she's talking about how prices are too high and she's going to fix them. You're there now. I mean, I'm not the only person saying this. Everyone,
Starting point is 00:12:09 half a brain is saying this, but the thing is no one in the media is saying it. And so I just don't know. A lot of people still watch this stuff. I just had dinner with my family yesterday. My family's full of successful people and all of them think that Trump would be a disaster for America as if he didn't already have four years and as if we already weren't living in year four of Harris. It's unbelievable. Although it was year four of Biden and then Harris underneath it. How much, Len, you saw Biden at the debate. How much Biden is really in those policy positions?
Starting point is 00:12:39 And I don't know how much influence she had. Fucking more than him, probably, would be my guess. I can't say. I think to the credit of a lot of people who are doubting Trump, even yesterday, people in my family want to see that first debate. Which, by the way, Harris now says
Starting point is 00:12:57 she wants to be able to have notes with her. Review notes during the debate instead of just going raw dog. Like, come on, man. these people aren't serious leaders they're not serious leaders you can't you can't have a president like there's almost nothing that can be said right it's circus level stuff we're in the tyson zone like i said before three yeah with between israel lebanon iran there's a powder and we got a d and we got a dei former rap video girl who needs fucking notes in the debate running for office
Starting point is 00:13:32 well good fucking luck out there everybody the question is does she have the ability to de-escalate all what's going on over there or is she gonna just let things play it out i don't know what do you think what do you think do you think 25 percent uh tax on unrealized gains is de-escalating i think that think that's in her military it's gonna help fund the military and so yeah okay boomers boomers in the chat saying notes isn't a horrible idea yes it fucking is a horrible idea you should not have notes during a debate you're you're auditioning to be the leader of the free world okay when you go to a job interview boomer you don't getomer, you don't get fucking notes. You don't get fucking notes.
Starting point is 00:14:09 You go there and you go on the cut of your jib. What do you know? What do you not know? Not what you could write down for half an hour before. Not what your team of 30 fucking staffers could put together while they whisper back and forth with the media about what the questions will be. That's not what this is about. It's about going there, standing on your business,
Starting point is 00:14:26 like the kids say, and delivering a fucking confident response to questions that you don't know in advance on topics that you should be familiar with. That's what being a president requires, not having notes for a debate. You want notes when you're in the White House? Fine. I get that. You want staffers. You want to make sure you have experts all over the place but that's not what people are evaluating here they're evaluating you and if notes are coming through and you got to get responses from everyone that's not the same it's just not the same i i could not disagree more what else could i say about this it just it's a very interesting uh idea by team harris obviously it's riled up a bunch of people including you you went down quite a spiel on uh on one of the chats we were in about
Starting point is 00:15:12 uh i don't want to say the name um quite a spiel about what's going on so this if it ever comes to fruition it's going to be hard to take it away once a tax is there generally it's there for life yeah generally it'll just get worse it'll just get worse yeah correct is that nuts it's fucking nuts it's fucking nuts and again i did not expect to see something like this ever suggested first by the united states i don't know of any other country that does this. Maybe there is. I don't know. But I can't think of any or I haven't read it. So the fact that the United States, capitalism, man. This is not it.
Starting point is 00:15:52 Cradle of capitalism. The famous picture of that gas station on the hill. There's a million gas stations. McDonald's, Arby's, Denny's. That's the home of the fiat capitalism and now you just want to tax this shit I don't know it's like it's it's like you're clearly looting on the way out like what else could you call this France tried a wealth tax went really bad for them I didn't know that John yeah nor did I thank you for sharing that I'll look into that. Okay, so that's mandible stuff. We can talk about more mandible stuff.
Starting point is 00:16:26 Okay, sure. See, according to research by Citizens Advice, people in the United Kingdom are worried. Sorry, by Citizens Advice? Yes. Hey, man. I saw the chart. Rate the name.
Starting point is 00:16:44 This is advice? You're putting me in a spot here. Fucking zero. Me too. No. Two out of five? It's not that bad. Anyway, so this is advice.
Starting point is 00:16:53 They say that people in the UK are worried about energy costs. And so much so that one in four are considering turning off the heat or the water or the hot water this winter as a way to cope with the higher costs. Again, that's truly mandible shit. And those are the aggregate numbers. If you only include people with kids, that number increases to 31% of households that want to do this shit. Or even further, low-income, 39% of households that are going to want to do it. I can understand the low income because they just don't have anything to spend but people with kids considering they're turning off the heat or hot water that's fucking insane that you ever try telling a kid to shower in cold water
Starting point is 00:17:34 my hot water tank was off for a couple of days day or so whatever it was and yeah it was a i can't you know i'm not i'm a hot water guy kind of guy but you know what i don't know how you could do with kids or even with a little kid yeah you know like it's dangerous potentially with a kid young enough right so you'd have to boil water and let it cool down i think it'd just be an absolute disaster if you had the energy to boil water with that too but studies over there are showing that almost seven percent of the households across great britain are in debt to their energy supplier. They haven't even caught up to the – and we're not even winter, right? That's when shit tends to be much higher in cost.
Starting point is 00:18:14 No, no, no. Didn't you see what Starmer said? They're not going to pay any more in winter. He's putting a cap on the cost of energy in the winter. So don't worry about it. Don't worry about it. So they're saying 5 million people in total are currently in a negative budget. That's meaning their essential monthly outgoing exceeds their income.
Starting point is 00:18:33 So things aren't going very well for people out there living paycheck to paycheck. Now, the question I have, though, what is the BTU on a British note? I don't know those British pounds. If it's high enough joey oh that's that's what they have oh that's bullshit then you gotta get a fucking crapload to make any sort of heat but there's a lot of btus like that yeah but that's that's what i want to what is the btu of these british notes that's the real question here so very mandibles i'm not even gonna say anything about that i you know kirstarmer
Starting point is 00:19:05 he's in a lot of hot water for a lot of reasons but he did find time like i said to promise that your energy costs would not go up in the winter so you're not you're not my my blokes your costs ain't going up in it don't worry about it what a mess what a mess it's everywhere it's actually fucking starting to happen everywhere and all of us are just going to be laughing and going told you so told you so i can't believe bitcoin advantage groups is bored at 100 pages in the mandibles that story was fucking great i love that it's pretty it is pretty nuts i didn't finish it either advantage group so you're not alone you're not alone did you finish the first part because there was a a twist of what happened like i then probably not probably not no they're probably not i got to uh i should go back to it it's in the other room actually unless it's right
Starting point is 00:19:53 here is it right here no it's not it's in the other room i thoroughly enjoy anyways let's talk about something else that triggered you and let's trigger you again, Joey, because the Bureau of Labor... What's a million jobs between friends? Go ahead. I won't even say anything. I'll leave it over to you. 12 months. They did a 12-month revision, down 800 and something thousand jobs.
Starting point is 00:20:16 800 and 18,000. Yeah, over the last 12 months. So all this Bidenomics, the data-driven, we're data-dependent, is all made up. It's all bullshit. The birth-death model doesn't work for modern economies. It's impossible to predict these things. They extrapolate surveys. They extrapolate phone calls. They try and take templates that work for one firm and put them on other firms in terms of how many jobs they had. They don't use payroll data. It's just fake. It's all fake. And you know it's fake because
Starting point is 00:20:45 all the way through, Powell was saying how great things were. And now all of a sudden at Jackson Hole, where you're supposed to be nondescript, only once really in history has Jackson Hole been either hawkish or dovish outright. That was two years ago when he said they're staying higher for longer. How'd that go? Not that great. And now they're coming back down with the rates because of this. They're focused on unemployment, the first half of their dual mandate. What else is there to say? Anyone who tells you that these guys are data-driven is just like an idiot at this point. Data is just a way to sell the result that the government needs and to try and place it nicely
Starting point is 00:21:25 into a clean narrative so people don't think that they're losing control. But clearly, yet again, what was Federal Reserve late to the party with the raises and here they are now late to the party with the cuts.
Starting point is 00:21:35 Here's the question. 50 in September or 25 in September? I'm going to guess 25. I could be way, way wrong. Nikki Leakes says that Powell wants 50 and just has to convince the rest of the committee. Give me a second. Sorry, I'm having some audio issues here.
Starting point is 00:21:50 Okay, no problem. I'll keep talking. The thing I would also point out to people is that... I can't hear you. Give me a second. No, no, I'm talking to myself. Don't worry about it. Let me hop out and back in.
Starting point is 00:22:00 Give me a second. Okay. Can everyone else hear me? I hope everyone can hear me. Anyway, so the thing I would back in. Give me a second. Okay. Can everyone else hear me? I hope everyone can hear me. Anyway, so the thing I would also point out is that when Powell says he doesn't want to be political, what does he mean? What he means is I don't want to cut near the election. I never bought that to begin with.
Starting point is 00:22:18 Trump has been very clear that he doesn't want the Federal Reserve to have the amount of power they have, and he wants more influence on the policy positions these guys take in terms of the rates. So to me, I think he always wanted something like this to be able to cut near the election and give Biden a little bit of a boost, which is another reason why I would not bet against Kamala Sutra come November, because I just don't think that anyone is ready for the lengths that the state will go to, to make sure that things stay status quo. We don't get the disruptor in chief back for four more years. It's funny. The Federal Reserve has this dual mandate everyone talks about, but what are they really looking at? They talk a lot about how they don't look at the S&P.
Starting point is 00:22:57 I guess they probably don't because the S&P is close to an all-time high. Bitcoin is close to an all-time high. You had all these things ripping during a high rate environment. And now, what have you come back to? You've come back to the time where you have to cut and you're cutting into highs in every asset class, basically. Yeah, Boomer in the chat, the jobs data was off by more than the population of five states. That's fucking nuts.
Starting point is 00:23:17 It's fucking nuts. They do this every time. It's not like this is a one-off. Department of Downward Revisions, right? That's what we call them. Yeah, because it's so applicable to this a department of downward revisions, right? That's what we call them. Yeah. Because it's so applicable to this, but I don't know,
Starting point is 00:23:29 man, like this is fucked up. And yeah, I guess that's it for the notable side. You want to go to Canada? Sure. Yeah. So,
Starting point is 00:23:38 yeah. So we'll, the very top, I'll be brief on this. And I mentioned it, the opinion piece from the Toronto star saying, quote, we're getting lousy value for the taxes we pay in canada and quote so the toronto star right like we talk about the star uh we've mentioned the star quite a bit and then the
Starting point is 00:23:54 fact that the check do you want it i don't want to do that the fact that they would just do this opinion piece and and publish it means something that either they believe it or they're just trying to gaslight people or there's there's got to be some reason but i i would never have expected this to come from the toronto star why i think well i think they're very they're not going to bite the hand that feeds them yeah and if they're doing this they are in one way biting the hand that feeds them so why would they do this i don't know it seems like it's a turning over a new page and we might have a different way of reporting moving forward probably not but maybe i don't know i doubt it i think that they're like you and i you know just people who pay taxes and need services from time to time.
Starting point is 00:24:47 And when they need the services, they don't get them. And so, yeah, it's frustrating, of course. Why wouldn't you be frustrated with that, right? You'd be furious, I think. And those guys are probably feeling the same way. And by the way, they're also under a constant barrage from everyone and their brother and their mother and their father and their sister about how they're taking money from the government in terms of tax revenue.
Starting point is 00:25:10 So maybe it's just a facade of sorts like, hey, we're one of you too, take it easy on us. We don't think we're getting good value. It could be anything, right? But overall, the problem with allocation of tax dollars is not something that Toronto Star can fix with an editorial. It's got to be fixed at the highest levels. And I don't think, Len, that it is a fixable problem in Canada or or the u.s or basically anywhere else at this point the ship is too far gone um so we'll see see that canada's inflation numbers fell to 2.5 perfect month of july let's get another cut send it that's the lowest since march 2021 and that's right it's probably going to lead to yet another cut. We've already had two. I believe two. Each 25
Starting point is 00:25:50 basis points. So we are ahead of the curve with respect to the United States in terms of getting to whatever number they want to get to. What's going to happen in September? Probably add another cut. Will it be 25, 50? Who the heck knows? But they're now in a process of
Starting point is 00:26:07 cutting rates and doing it every so often almost you could say aggressively lowering rates now keep in mind it's 2.5 we're going to get one for august yeah very very soon but until then the house i think goes in the session i gotta check the schedule before the august numbers come out yeah yeah i think so too the last time we had something this low the finance minister's result and she was glowing in terms of what was being reported the same things are working everything's working exactly that they're going to point to this and say look we've done the right course we've corrected high inflation now it's back down to 2.5 percent and it's within the distance of where they want to achieve it to be and so they're going to use that as a talking point as a way to say look we're the
Starting point is 00:26:56 people that can do the job we've done it now we'll continue to do it and moving forward will get even better for you so regardless of what happens for the August numbers, they're going to pin their hats on this. And if August comes in at low numbers as well, they're going to use that as well as another talking point. For sure. They're going to cut twice more before the end of the year at least. And I think that there's a lot of dis...
Starting point is 00:27:20 What's the word I'm looking for? Distrust is not the word. There's a lack of enchantment, let's say in the NDP and liberal alliance at the moment, it seems to me. And Mr. Singh was in the media, I think two or three days ago with a bag of apples that he said was a bag of potatoes, but talking about how expensive they were. And I think a lot of people are starting to look at the way this guy is in the media attacking the liberal Party and wondering if he's going to do anything about it. Maybe he will.
Starting point is 00:27:47 Maybe he won't. But it's become popular to do that for him. And so that tells you something, right? So there's some poll somewhere that says to stay relevant or to stay in power or to maintain your leadership role, this is what you need to be doing. So that's one thing to keep in mind. As far as the cuts, I think Canada has some of the worst unemployment numbers in terms of youth. Obviously today, the Liberal government proposing a change to the temporary foreign worker program, which will significantly impact the number of people who are here, how long they can stay, where they can work,
Starting point is 00:28:22 and what they can do for work. So the message is getting through. I think in terms of the cuts and whatnot, is this political for us now? I think the latest we can go before an election is October, right? Or September next year? What month is it? It's October next year. Okay. 2025. october right or september next year what month is it it's october next year okay 25 yeah so if we if we go another year you know we get rates down to three percent two and a half percent let's say
Starting point is 00:28:52 people are feeling you know better about things presumably at that point i don't know how long this this will take to work itself through the market but it's a lagged effect just like the changes to the yeah to the temporary foreign workers. They may put a date of September they want to start it, but it's a lagged effect. It will take a year or two before it's noticeable. The same thing with the rate change. So political or not, the rate cuts? Of course it's very political. Yeah, I think so too.
Starting point is 00:29:18 Here and in the States, right? Guys who run the central bank both saying that they don't want to be political, but they're anything but at this point worried about the optics. Officially, it's a separate entity altogether. But I think in Canada, the Minister of Finance sits on the board of the Bank of Canada. I could be wrong, but that's what I seem to remember. So just given that, there's a connection between entity A and entity B. So it's hard to say that it's truly separate. It's funny.
Starting point is 00:29:47 Boomer is saying there's going to be an impulse wave of inflation. I think that's possible. When you get cuts, people will feel the wealth effect. By the way, the wealth effect used to be when the value of your home went up or something like that, you felt more wealthy and spent more money. Now, I think the wealth effect, Glenn, actually comes from Twitter and Facebook and Instagram. The cuts are here. Don't worry. Things are going to get easier. Go spend that money you wanted to spend. Don't worry too much about it. The lagging effect of those cuts in terms of the harm they're trying to stave off, yeah, that'll still lag,
Starting point is 00:30:21 but I don't think that the spending and the wealth effect has to wait necessarily as long as it did in the past he's talking about what's happening it's 1970s and that they lowered rates too soon they did yeah they did yeah i think what's happening now is very much different than i think there was still um it was still very much like very recently cutting from the gold standard. Now we're so far away from it. Yeah. Consumer debt was a lot lower than two. Oh,
Starting point is 00:30:49 it's right there. Yeah. Personal consumption. That's an all time high from Narwhal there. Yeah. I mean, it's a different situation, but the mistake is the same.
Starting point is 00:30:56 It's just, it's just going to be amplified now. It is. So that's what everything is. Every, every action by these banks and by governments is, it's just a way to try to fix something that's there. And it's applying a force on something.
Starting point is 00:31:12 Yeah. And sometimes you do it and it works, but other times you could do it, but then you have to apply more force and more force. Eventually you don't have the ability to put any more force. And then whatever you're holding back, the energy now has to be expanded the other way way back the other way and you're just going to get absolutely obliterated in the process so the banks they have the ability to do certain things but they up to a point and unfortunately we're going to feel that we're going to be part of the collateral damage the bitcoin price is going to absolutely fucking rip in the next year. I really think it is.
Starting point is 00:31:45 I really think it is. I think there's going to be a huge connect between that and the markets. Now, as they lower rates, absolutely, it's going to impact the price of Bitcoin. But then as the economy, if the economy really suffers as a result, it's going to drive down the cost of a lot of things like Bitcoin as well. I think there's going to be – I could be wrong in my thinking here, but i think that bitcoin is going to go up hard and then down hard as well and it's happened all the time but eventually it's going to stop happening but remember we're only 15 years into this yeah still really new it's a trillion dollar asset and it's been done in a very short period of time it's worth more than how many more currencies i think it's let only seven top ten yeah that's incredible that it's
Starting point is 00:32:32 been done and it's all like free market there's been no manipulation by governments or a central bank or whatever it's all just basically somebody wants to buy what's the price you're selling it i'll buy it and that's how it's being dictated that's it's incredible we got to this point safe consumption let's talk about that joy oh god i love this one you're on fire today you these are hand-picked for me yeah i know you like this one so the safe consumption sites in ontario a bunch of them a bunch of about 10 or so from what i understand five in toronto one in ottawa kitchener thunder bay hamilton and guelph so yeah yeah um they're going to be closed because there's these new rules in place that dictate you can't have these consumption sites within a 200 meter radius of schools and or
Starting point is 00:33:17 children having heaven forbid yeah heaven forbid this seems rather reasonable to me i mean i wouldn't want and i i not trying to just put you know make light of this or put it put down anybody but somebody that could be perceived to be a junkie near kids um that just doesn't make any sense to me and i wouldn't want anybody to be influenced by anybody that's high on any type of drug or maybe going through withdrawal or anything along those lines so there's a lot that could go wrong with this by having them so close i can't believe they were adjacent to schools and child care centers but hey you know what the risk is the risk is too great and the reason to answer that comment the reason they're near schools and child care centers is because they're often in places where those resources are needed. There's a direct correlation between something like,
Starting point is 00:34:07 for example, parents with two or three jobs and drug use in a family. There's a relationship between single parents and drug use. These lower income families, oftentimes there's a relationship between that and drug use or any kind of substance use. So yeah, I get why those places are nearby. They shouldn't be though. That's a mistake. It's a policy mistake to have those things near schools. The other thing that needs to be considered is that the severity, the effects and the severity of the effects that these drugs have on their users in the last five years has gone up 100x. We didn't have a fentanyl crisis the way we do now in 2020. We didn't have an opioid crisis the way we do now in 2020, 2019, 2015, when these things were established, 2010, when they were
Starting point is 00:34:55 established, when safe supply was really gaining momentum and traction. Safe supply, the wayside ethos is that safe supply has to be a step on the way to abstinence. I agree with that personally, and obviously I do work for an agency that has that as their mantra. But the problem with the safe supply people is that they think safe supply is the end. Getting people on safe supply and then hopefully telling them to put a resume together while they're absolutely fucking in orbit on government coke or government heroin or government meth um it doesn't work okay i don't even want to work on my resume when i'm playing fucking video games what do you think that these people are like when they're you know when they're heading up on their spacex to save the guys that boeing left uh there. This is not the population you want around kids, period, end of story. And the suggestion remains the same. The suggestion is if you want
Starting point is 00:35:53 these things near schools, open one near your kid's school then. I don't want it near mine. If you want it in a neighborhood, do it in your fucking neighborhood. I don't want it in mine. These people need help. They need help in a place where if something goes sideways there's very little collateral damage or harm done to a community or to a group of people especially vulnerable people like children anyone who says otherwise is either a grifter or a liar and that's the end of the story we should go back and see why people are addicted to these drugs i think some of it has to do deal with the doctors themselves prescribing for sure for sure i'm not gonna say in totality but there's there's got to be some element of the overall health care system here it doesn't reward fixes it rewards band-aids
Starting point is 00:36:38 great great great term yeah took right out of my mouth that's that's perfect yeah have you ever taken tylenol three you must have through your life, right? I've had a couple of pretty good surgeries where I've been recommended T3 or where I've been prescribed T3. There's another pretty strong painkiller you get, Percocet. Yeah. I've taken Percocet once. I took it when I had my ACL surgery. The first night was absolutely brutal once the pain wore off.
Starting point is 00:37:09 But the side effects of the Percocet were worse i couldn't sleep i was sweating and so i ended up switching to t3 i don't take tylenol for anything i don't there's not even any tylenol in my house well the tylenol three that makes you like constipated and hard those drugs are bad those drugs are bad that stuff is terrible for you if if you need painkillers for surgery or something, fine. But I know people who take like, like, listen, I like to have a couple of beers on the weekend as much as anyone. And sometimes, especially on a Saturday morning, if I have three beers the night before, there is a temptation to take a Tylenol in the morning because it just makes that little bit of fog go away.
Starting point is 00:37:39 Don't do it. Don't do it. Have a glass of water. Go take a walk with your dog or take a walk outside put on your favorite cbp episode and your hangover or your fog or whatever will dissipate over time anything more to it than that there's always more there's always more right the point is that tolerances yeah yeah the point the point is that people are looking for an easy way out a lot of the time you know and i'm not saying that's everybody but you
Starting point is 00:38:05 can't tell me that there's not people in your life i know for sure there's people in mine who who take alcohol or drugs as a way to escape the sort of pains of everyday life yeah like sure and that's that's where it starts right and doctors enable that in a way and it's not the doc necessarily doctor's fault but we become an assembly line medicare system here that barely works you know it's hanging on by a thread um and so these doctors are trying their best to just keep people tame for the time being until they can see a specialist see a surgeon see or whatever but man like you know heaven forbid you have one of these problems where you need an opioid it's just or an opiate like it's it is so risky taking an opiate for any period of time. I could be talking out of my ass here, but I'm surprised
Starting point is 00:38:48 THC isn't offered as an alternative. Are you a THC guy? No. I'm not either, but you're right. You know why it's not offered as an alternative. No, I don't know why. I think it's because it's not easy to make money off of i don't know why school i i think i think it's
Starting point is 00:39:05 because it's not easy to make money off of thc the way it is to make money okay medicines right medicines make you right here i'm just sure what it is people have included and unless it just may not be barking up the wrong tree but like everyone like i said everybody's pain tolerances are different everybody has different bodies and different pains and shit like that like arthritis we name it so but i'm wondering just man if things hurt that bad instead of taking something like tylenol or tylenol 3 just you know take you know some thc yeah and just enjoy hopefully that numbs the smoke a joint i like i honestly i'll tell you right now i swear by uh like once or twice a year getting together with my buddies and just smoking a joint.
Starting point is 00:39:48 I don't do drugs at all anymore. I'm too old. I don't party at all anymore. I'm boring. But there's value in using natural substances from time to time. Now, I'm not one of these guys who's like, no, you can smoke dope every day. There's no harmful effects. You probably can.
Starting point is 00:40:04 And I don't know. I fucking doubt it. I fucking can. And I don't know. I don't have it. I fucking doubt it. I fucking don't know. There's always consequences for anything that alters your mind like that. I think anyway. I don't know. Maybe I'm crazy.
Starting point is 00:40:12 I think you get used to it. I don't know. But either way, I mean, maybe we should just get high in my basement one time. Do an episode of CBP. Be a very cotton mouth episode of just all you hear is like this. Do we just lose len that's right i had to take a hit i didn't want to be on camera when i did that you know the funny thing and it's been years since i like if ever i do anything like that like i'm the next day i'm
Starting point is 00:40:44 messed up i have a hangover from that's normal that's normal like people who say they don't that's not a good sign i can't function as a human being so like the funny thing i say people should try this but i don't fucking i don't uh believe in what i i don't do what i preach i'm kind of a hypocrite in that that's all right one more mandibles thing i guess we could talk about is a railway lockout yeah happening in canada so we have cp rail and cn rail cp i forget the new name of it um whatever it may be cp and cn rail the two biggest rail lines or real companies in canada uh simultaneously had a lockout one has been one of the two has been resolved it looks like the government has forced one of the two to back to work there's going to be also binding arbitration that's going to be coming
Starting point is 00:41:28 up from what i understand and this is the first time in canada's history that we've ever had two companies the two biggest real companies be had some sort of labor dispute at the same time maybe not labor dispute locked out i think it's it's a labor dispute it's labor dispute okay so yeah so there you go and the ramifications from this from what i've been reading is they've stopped shipping chlorine to uh water treatment plants for some time because it's a chemical you just don't want sitting because of the implications of that something had going wrong so they predicted that there was going to be work stoppage. And so during that time, they said, you know what?
Starting point is 00:42:09 We're not going to start shipping chlorine to on rail. It makes sense. But the problem with that, if that was prolonged, this type of labor problem is that there wouldn't be chlorine that's going to be going to water treatment plants. We'd have to get a boiling water advisory that we have to take into effect like again like that's mandibles level shit right like yeah this is 2024 you know we have the ability to move freight around and now we have this i i don't know and this you see that you see the recommendation from
Starting point is 00:42:42 as i think it was torstar or Globe and Mail, one of the two. There shouldn't be a rail strike. We should nationalize the rail. Yeah. And I mentioned that Canadian National Sea and Rail was nationalized. They privatized it in the 90s under Kretchen.
Starting point is 00:43:01 Let's buy it back. Why don't we just buy it back? Why not? Let's see if that's gonna solve anything so don't forget to tax them on the gains when they make the sale that's all of course yeah 25 you know that's a sticking point from this because jagmeet singh is dead set against force forcing the yeah doesn't force them to go back to work. And it looks like they're pushing those buttons to force them to go back to work. Now,
Starting point is 00:43:30 this may not be a confidence issue. So that may be the thing that's going to keep this whole agreement between the NDP and Liberals still in check. But if this is ever a confidence issue, then this would be fun to watch this play out. I don't think anybody wants an election this soon. The only one that wants an election i think is the conservative party i
Starting point is 00:43:48 don't think anybody else wants one right now so this is fun to watch i'm not convinced anybody wants an election right now because everything's just so unpredictable um i like the railway lockout thing is interesting to me because you don't realize how much volume moves on that it's about a billion dollars a day did you know that well think about the port of vancouver yeah right and when the shit comes in from there how does it end up in the rest of the country it's not trucks yeah yeah so it's the busiest port in canada from what i understand and so which is surprising because i keep on seeing these instagram videos of new canadians getting truck licenses so you would think that it'd be mostly on trucks now, but I guess not. It just can't deal.
Starting point is 00:44:29 It's two different things. I don't know. I have no idea. Whenever you think of railroads, you think of an antiquated way to move freight. But clearly it's not as antiquated as I think. Or we're just antiquated as a country. Maybe that's also possible. It's a cheap way of moving freight.
Starting point is 00:44:43 It's efficient. Are they electric trains? No, they're diesel they're diesel oh no they're diesel electric from what i understand diesel electric yeah not coal get some coal trains in there no like shining time station back in the day thomas the train you're gonna be watching that soon enough oh my god i know i have to get i have to get my hands on all the old cartoons before they get dei'd by disney there's still a bunch on there that you could watch i have i have hard copies of almost every vhs tape i have to find a vhs player or convert it into something that's more modern like a yeah or mpeg i don't know i'll figure it out anyway i guess that's it are we done we are done all right
Starting point is 00:45:25 i'll see uh i'll see you guys thursday thursday night me and 11 other you know lucky contestants playing uh cbp fantasy we'll live stream the draft talk talk some bitcoin have some beers maybe someone will smoke a joint i don't know i probably won't but uh feel free if you're one of the lucky few and uh i guess it's legal to do so wherever you're doing it. That's right, yeah. And if you're in your basement, make sure you tell your mother you don't upset her, all right? Hold on, man.
Starting point is 00:45:50 I got to go over the... Vent the smell somehow, so it's not stinking up the whole house. We need to get the Bidox guys to produce a vent of some kind. Bitcoin mining vent. You can vent out your weed smoke. Anyway, take care of yourselves
Starting point is 00:46:06 i don't know i'm leaving goodbye everyone all right don't be a cock

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