The Canadian Bitcoiners Podcast - Bitcoin News With a Canadian Spin - The CBP #194 (Notable News Stories) - Resignations, Fall Economic Statements, The Liberal Future (Bitcoin Podcast)

Episode Date: December 17, 2024

FRIENDS AND ENEMIES Join us for some QUALITY Bitcoin and economics talk, with a Canadian focus, every Monday at 7 PM EST. From a couple of Canucks who like to talk about how Bitcoin will impact Canada. As always, none of the info is financial advice. Website: ⁠www.CanadianBitcoiners.com ⁠Discord: / discord A part of the CBP Media Network: ⁠www.twitter.com/CBPMediaNetwork This show is sponsored by: easyDNS - ⁠⁠www.easydns.com⁠⁠ EasyDNS is the best spot for Anycast DNS, domain name registrations, web and email services. They are fast, reliable and privacy focused. You can even pay for your services with Bitcoin! Apply coupon code 'CBPMEDIA' for 50% off initial purchase Bull Bitcoin - ⁠⁠https://mission.bullbitcoin.com/cbp⁠⁠ The CBP recommends Bull Bitcoin for all your BTC needs. There's never been a quicker, simpler, way to acquire Bitcoin. Use the link above for $20 bones, and take advantage of all Bull Bitcoin has to offer. D-Central Technologies - https://d-central.tech/ Your home for all things mining! Whether you need a new unit, a unit repaired, some support with software, or you want to start your own wife-friendly home mining operation, the guys at D-Central Tech are ready to help. With industry leading knowledge and expertise, let the D-Central team help you get started mining the hardest money on Earth.

friends and enemies coming to you live today new all-time high in the bitcoin price new all-time low in federal government organization my name is joey that's len what is going on buddy how that go yeah i'm really good joey neither of our block clocks are showing a price we had a one in three chance and neither of us are showing it. That's incredible. I got the stats per dollar under a thousand stats per dollar now. Yeah. Nine 43.

It's showing on yours. I might just showing the block height. So got to like that. We got, we got a lot to talk about today. Price reserves. Yeah. Plus there's a little bit of turmoil in Ottawa.

We'll get to all that. First, as always, the sponsors, EasyDNS. Best place for you, listener, viewer, to get all your registrar stuff taken care of. Mark is the best registrar in the game. We know that. You know that. He is humble enough.

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We're getting awfully close to getting to the price of Bitcoin. I have no idea what it is whatever it is it's a good time to buy good time to sell whatever is your fancy bull bitcoin has you covered you could do it on chain you can use lightning now i'm just going to stall a little bit because i'm curious to see what is the last block i'm eight sats per v byte so that's pretty low in my humble opinion you have might have a different opinion than my own so i I would suggest if you're going to buy, do it on-chain. Don't use Lightning just yet, but certainly learn how to use it because there's going to be a point in time where it's going to be very expensive to use the on-chain, and Bull Bitcoin has you covered.

And you could buy using Lightning and sell using Lightning as well. Not just that, there's a couple of interesting services they have. The price of Bitcoin being so very high. It reached an all-time high today, yesterday. I see every day is another day of an all-time high. So people may want to start spending it in one particular way. You can use your bill service to start paying your bills with Bitcoin, and you'll be getting the most value for your dollar or for your SAT.

If you do that, it's like if you have – the block was just mine right now. Six SATs for B-Bite was just heads up on that. So if you do that and you start paying you have, block was just mine right now, six sats from B-Bite was just heads up on that. So if you do that and you start paying your bills, you're good to go. You could pay like a car bill, you could pay like a cell phone bill, whatever you think is best to pay. Or just don't, wait until later on

and they start knocking on your door and then start paying. But at that time, price of Bitcoin is probably even higher. It's not financial advice. And buy these gift cards and start spending them in a real world rather than just going out there and putting stuff in your pocket not paying like a lot of people are doing pay for stuff man and how could you do that get these gift cards pay

buy them with your bitcoin so you're kind of spending your bitcoin in the real world you're living on a bitcoin set standard just the way satoshi wanted you to if you have not yet opened an account with bull bitcoin i don't know what the heck you're doing, but do it using a promo code below and 21 bucks will be added to your account. And also they're expanding into France. So if you're in France right now and you want to open an account,

I don't know if our promo code works over there. Give it a try if it doesn't. Yes, sir. We did, sir. Last sponsor, Decentral Tech. Listen, Decentral Tech under some fire online i'm not going to talk about who said what whatever but i like i have no beef with decentral tech i stand by the product i stand by the service i stand by the guys who are running the show len's just

showing his bid axe uh mine is running off screen here and you know if you haven't ordered yours yet you should um neat little unit i gotta tell you len I'm surprised how easy it was to set up. I thought for sure it would be just a touch more difficult than that, but truly it is a 10 minute setup, uh, even for, even for a guy like me, who's never done it before. Um, which was, you know, excellent. Uh, I really enjoyed that. So yeah, I mean, they're under a little bit of a heat, but I think that's a growing business. We partnered with them for good reason and i plan on sticking with them as a partner and as a sponsor and i will probably now that i have become somewhat of a hobby miner spend ungodly amounts of money on little mining units you can do the same go over to decentral tech you can use uh um almost knocked down my

water here you can use a promo code with our other sponsors, but with Decentral Tech, you don't have to. You just go there, spend a couple bucks, buy a little Bidax Supra, Bidax Gamma, Bidax whatever you like, buy an S19, buy an S21, get a heater, get whatever you need. And make sure you let those guys know that you think they're doing a good job.

And if you got your CBP Bidax, take some pictures, man, put them up. Pretty hyped to see what you guys are doing with yours. Where if you got your uh cbp bidax um take some pictures man put them up pretty hyped to see what you guys are doing with yours where are you gonna put yours line where is yours gonna live is it gonna live right next to the computer there where you are yeah it's gonna be permanently next to me over here i kind of want to feature mine somehow like maybe not there behind me but like in my living room it looks cool enough that you could put this somewhere fun and really have a good time with it yeah yeah i just like the the warm fuzzy feeling when i could see that every 10 minutes it's a lottery ticket and then just mere two and a half feet away from

that it's my node and i'm broadcasting my own transactions and verify so everything here is is all very local sovereign cocktail over there that's the way i like that and the fact you're saying that it's running next to you you have it over there there's one thing i just want to make note it's running next to me too joey i can't hear yours running they're silent and i'm pretty sure you can't hear mine running as well my wife even noted that land when they came uh i plugged mine in and was showing her kind of how the thing works or whatever. And she goes, it's on right now, and it's silent. And I said, yeah.

She goes, great. How could you go wrong with that? You can't. Honestly, you can't. I didn't get the huge heating or the huge heat sink slash fan that you did for yours. But yeah, very quiet. And the temperature, thanks to the sort of simple interface of Axe OS, you can see the temperature unit at all times.

Never gets that high. It's great, man. I'm expecting this thing to run for quite some time. Now, are you able to talk about which mining pool you're using? Which one are you using? You know what? I'm using Kano.

I've been using that for quite a while. It's kind of an off-the-beaten path, and I use it. using Kano. I've been using that for quite a while. It's, it's kind of an off the beaten path and I use it. And I mean, I, I like the fact that if you check it out, it's a really small one and it finds blocks on average two, three, four times a year. So it's not very much, but the overall hash rate of the pools over there, it's just, it's very small. So if I score, if they score a block, there's a decent chance I get one of those 3 over there. Oh, it's just, it's very small. So if I score, if they score a block, there's a decent chance I get one of those.

Yeah. Point one, two, five. Pretty good. Yeah. Yeah. Pretty good.

Uh, that's a good idea. I have tried mine on two different pools, one, the CK solo pool, which was fun. Uh, and now it's running on,

actually, I tried three CK solo, uh, oceans pool and brains. It's on brains pool right now. Uh, seems to be pretty good nets uh i don't know 50 cents a dollar a day something like that which is fine with me and like you know what len the the interesting thing about the pools is that much like bitcoin generally the incentive structure works and keeps people from all just piling into one pool so as one pool

becomes too populated you'll see people head over to other pools like whether it's ocean or kano as you mentioned i never even heard of that one uh because the reward is so much greater and if you don't need the 3.125 right now you know you may get that 3.125 sometime down the road which is uh not bad yeah what's the hash rate of your pool do you you know? Overall, good question. I could check right now. It's not the top mine. I didn't know.

One, 20, sorry, 28 petahash. Nice. Which isn't a heck of a lot. Well, though, for a pool, the last time it found a block was 162 days ago, but it found three this year, I think. Cool. Very cool. Yeah. Something for everybody in the mining space i've enjoyed the uh few days i spent with this thing and i i readily admit that uh as a stat hound i love opening up the brains interface to look at the

stats and i love opening up the um the axe os interface as well oh yeah yeah the brains is pretty cool you gotta adjust it yeah the brains one is really nice yeah anyway that's it uh you want to go to boosts yeah we got a few uh wartime 333 stats he does the beer mugs and a heart it's like thanks for time duggan roop two different submissions 525 stats each he says number one fuck you len you're my friend and you can't sit there saying you have no friends without hurting my feelings unless you're talking about in real life then fair enough also good to have you back joey hey thanks buddy i appreciate it it's good to be back when you have friends in real life i i you know we worked together for a long time i i know you got friends zero duggan second one writes

in uh amused and ashamed at the notable blighty news paying wind farms not to produce because they're too windy accelerate yeah true accelerate moment i love it you know what i i missed one at the beginning these last sorry these laughs okay 123 sats he writes loving the news breakdown with humor keep stacking your sats maxwell get smart 100 100 these laughs here for these nuts who's next last but not least is m flux 2169 sats he says if your car was built built post 1990s then you're still short bitcoin even better trade it in for a moped man you know what two things cars that are built in the 90s and if you're it's an everyday driver here in canada especially in this part it did get rusted to hell and second a moped it's good for eight months of the year that's about it and over here

it's it's tough i mean would you ever consider getting a like a winter sort of two-wheel bike i know you're a motorcycle guy but would you ever consider riding something in the winter like that or is it just too dangerous too cold it's too once it gets for me my tolerance is if it's single digits i can't ride on a highway and I just can't do it for anything. And also, once the leaves fall down, I just stay the heck away from it because you're just asking for a wipeout. Plus, a piece of black ice that you just can't see. You only have two wheels.

You lose traction on one, you're gonzo. True, true. Okay. Where should we – now, normally we start with bitcoin news i really think it's more prudent to start with the financial statement and do you want to go first i mean we should no and you do you want to do you want to leave this one off because i'm sure you have a lot to talk about yeah let's let's just do it let's give a quick summary here okay summary yeah for people who have been under a rock today or, you know, the true Bitcoin or without

a podcast who doesn't follow normie news minister Freeland, who I think many would say accurately. So is the right hand woman of the Trudeau government surprise resignation this morning. 8 a.m. Called the prime minister short conversation by all accounts, resulting from, it sounds like, a Friday demotion that included needing to read the fall economic statement today, two months late or a month and a half late, with what was a fiscal anchor, a fiscal guardrail, completely destroyed and disregarded. Government obviously spending $62 billion last year as far as deficit spending, and promising Canadians at this time last year $40 billion as the anchor. So missed it by about 50%.

So she resigns. Lots of talk today about the role of certain ministers in ensuring that result and maybe more importantly certain non-elected officials advisors carney mark old mark there how you doing mark hope you're watching making an attempt to force freeland into a corner to give the bad news to canadians and news to Canadians and then, like the good foot soldier she's been, resign, remain friendly with the sitting government and the prime minister's office, and just do the quote-unquote right thing for the Liberal Party. They couldn't have got that any more fucking wrong. Now, the real question really is really is like what happens now to the liberal government nothing from the prime minister today i didn't expect anything from him i don't

think anyone should have expected anything from him from the weakest man in parliament potentially in parliamentary history jagmeet singh uh continued sort of shameful and embarrassing comments during QP laughed out of his, uh, seat every time he opened his mouth by his colleagues. It sounds like on both sides of the aisle, um, talking about how he wants the PM to resign, but will not call an election.

Why is that? Well, you can sort of pick your theory, but the best one going is some mix of a pension and the lack of an NDP war chest. You pointed that out many times, Len. Financials Republic, I think the last we checked, the NDP had less than a million dollars in terms of cash and cash equivalents. Is that right? I'm pretty sure that's correct. I can't remember the specifics, but it sounds right. Checked a while ago. I don't think from a politically, from a political tactic

standpoint, the people who think that Carney is going to take over, I think that's wrong. I think Carney coming in now makes him the weakest and most disliked finance minister, potentially high ranking Canadian politician of all time next to Trudeau's current state of affairs. Why is that Joey? Well, two reasons. One, you are in what is very much an anti-elite wave in the Western world. And that's a perceived anti-elite wave. Obviously, Elon and friends in the States are very highly regarded by the party and the constituents there. But here, Carney would not enjoy the same luxuries. He's a central banker. He's a former Bank of Canada governor, Bank of UK governor, friend of the WBF.

He is more emblematic of the problem than he is the solution. I think any rational actor would think that, including liberal strategists in the party and outside um but the other reason is that it's hard to replace freeland who for all the things i disagree with her on pulled off a master class exit true master class pulling no punches in her written statement um that she gave to the Prime Minister and released publicly this morning, talking about how she was at odds with the Prime Minister's vision for Canadians, calling out the, I think her words were, eschewing political tricks, costly political tricks

in favor of things that actually make sense for the economy and the population more broadly. And I expect her now to basically lay low for a couple of months. She's going to be the person everybody wants to talk to, probably. But she doesn't have to do that if she doesn't want. We've seen this before. People step down from power and maybe end up on Rogan a month later or two months later. I don't think she'll ever ask Jamie to pull something up. I don't think she's going to go that direction. But I do think that she'll lay low and probably benefit from whatever happens next to the liberal party. She noted in her resignation letter that she will not be giving up her seat

and will be running in the next election. That is a, you know, I am in the arena now announcement, in my opinion. And, you know, this all sort of stems, I think, from, like I said earlier, the ask that she read the fall economic statement, which maybe was written by Mark Carney, or at least had some significant contributions from Mark Carney. The fall economic statement was a disaster, a total disaster. I have it marked up here. I'm not going to share my screen because my comments are quite pointed, and there's no point in me repeating them on the air just to make people upset or whatever. And also this stupid website won't load anyway.

But a couple of significant points I thought in the fall economic statement. The first words of the fall economic statement were basically blaming Russia and COVID for the dire financial and fiscal straits that Canada finds itself in. That's embarrassing. It's shameful and embarrassing that we're doing that, that we allow that to be published and that we wear that for the rest of the world to see, especially at a time when it seems like all political stripes realize just how serious the Trump administration is about making things right between Canada and the US.

And even the most diehard liberal in terms of political affiliation and party affiliation has to admit that the team he's assembled is far superior than anything we have here in Canada. You may disagree with that, but I just don't think that's a negotiable point at this stage. You know, in the report, there's a number of mentions of stuff that we've pointed out on this show for years, except it's getting the opposite spin. Things like, we've achieved a soft landing. How do we know? Well, Canada is the first country to get inflation under control. And because we've gotten inflation under control, we've been able to lower our overnight rate six times or five times,

whatever it's been, something insane. No appreciation or no nod to the fact that the sequence of events for interest rates to drop is actually inflation is very high. And so you raise rates to stifle demand. And then as demand drops, you lower rates to stimulate demand. Well, what we've done here is destroyed demand so much thanks to poor economic decisions, including, by the way, what Carolyn Rogers called a productivity crisis a few months ago. Now the rates have to come down because the economy is about to hit the skids in a major way. And I just want to note that the Bank of Canada has spoken about very highly in the report,

but there's no mention of how that statement from Rogers is correct or incorrect about the government doing all the wrong things on productivity and needing to really discern its head from its ass a little bit and make a good policy decision about what Canadians should be doing for their nine to five and what the country needs as far as productivity from its population. Nothing about that. There's also nothing about immigration contributing to the disastrous economic conditions in the country.

Tons of talk playing all the hits, like I tweeted earlier, about how we are the best in the G7 in terms of rate decreases, in terms of GDP expected by the IMF. These institutions that have proven themselves to be, in the best case, frequently incorrect, and in the worst case, intentionally deceitful about the current state of affairs in money, in politics, and in anything that touches the two of those silos. For them to point to those institutions and that data as a sign that we are headed the right direction, I think is, again, shameful for them to do. It's dishonest for them to do. And it's demonstrably false. It flies in the face of

what we experience every day as Canadians. How many times on this show in the last two years have you pointed out that Food Bank used to set an all-time high? Often enough that even TradFi stars on major networks, in major papers, hedge fund managers, et cetera, including guys like Jeff Gundlach, now mentioning food bank usage and saying, look, the government can say whatever it wants about employment, about COVID, about rates, but here's the story on the ground. Everyone is trying to get soup cans multiple times a week where before they weren't. Is that a good thing or a bad thing? You, the judge, listener, viewer. There's notes in there about how Canada was the fastest to return to its pre-COVID

employment rate and talks about all the high wage jobs it's created. It's fucking bullshit. All those jobs are public sector. Something like 90% of the jobs in the last jobs report were public sector of the 300K or 500K. I forget the number. You can go back all the way through COVID and find that most of those jobs are public sector. And even worse, the report will allow you to connect these dots or the statement will allow you to connect these dots if you're able to think about it for more than five seconds, which obviously a lot of party diehards are not or choose not to, but the dots you can connect are from the first 50 pages of the report where they talk about subsidy and encouragement as far

as, um, uh, DFI direct foreign investment in Canada. They talk about stories you and I have mentioned here, Volkswagen and Honda and others. And what they're trying to say in the report is that look at all the investment, look at all the jobs, look at all the things we're doing to grow the economy. But what the data and the distilled real version of events actually points to- It's a political document, Joey. I don't care how you slice or dice it. It's not a political document don't show you i don't care how you slice or dice it's not it's not a political document because it is it's not if it was a narrative document i would say then what they could do is get rid of the data but they actually give you all the data you need to draw the complete picture for yourself because it's going to be

coming out in plain sight in five months when the budget is released they're basically trying to ease the pain by saying look this is what's coming down the pipe they can't fucking sugar you can't sugarcoat they are trying to sugarcoat they are trying to sugarcoat it though big time then it's a political thing this is the thing the thing they say yeah the thing they're saying yeah covid in russia covid in russia you know what i mean my opinion certainly covid and not the actual virus it's five years it was five years ago it's five years ago it was four and a half years ago that's not the virus itself but it was exactly yeah no the prices do not go back to pre-covid because the money that's now in a system is never going to want it.

So this is the thing that- There's some truth to that. There is some truth. But the thing that really bothers me the most is that the data is there for everyone to see now, like you mentioned. Maybe it is to sort of dumb it down or wet the blanket a bit for what's coming in the spring. But I would say that it's just everywhere you look, what you're seeing is just, I hate to

use this word because it's overused and it makes you sound like you're not a serious person, but it's a lot of communist looking stuff. It's government subsidies for investment. We're paying people to come here and invest a little bit of money. And the dollars per job is some astronomical number. It's way too high. It's not efficient. We're paying people to work for the government in jobs that don't necessarily add value

to the average Canadian taxpayer. And then on top of that, you could say that, yeah, there's some private sector growth, like it's 5% of the jobs or 10% of the jobs. How many of that 10% are in industries like Honda, Volkswagen, Stellantis, or whatever that battery company is?

How many of those jobs? Stellantis is a group of companies. Or or whatever there's like there's another there's another like whatever uh company on that list how many of the private sector jobs are actually just jobs that are coming from government subsidy they are at the bottom you know like i said when you distill it they're they're just more government jobs canada is in an unbelievably bad situation. And if you weren't sure before, then maybe you should reconsider how bad things are. I'm going to give you a list, Len, of all the... Let me just pull it up here.

A list of all the finance ministers that have ever been removed from their post in Canada during a government. Bill Morneau, Chrystia Freeland. That's the list. Well, well no it's a little bit longer than that are we've had moved from their post during a sitting government now paul martin if i i remember this specifically it depending on who you listen to he either resigned or was forced to resign so it depends revisionist history may tell you one way or another,

but we still to this day do not know for certain if he resigned or he was forced to resign. Add him to the list. The point is that it never happens. And it's happened twice

under this government. And the idea that you have someone like Freeland, who is a loyalist, like say what you want about her, but you want someone like Freeland in your corner if you're running a government. There's no doubt about that. You can agree with the politics, disagree with the politics. You can not like her communication style.

Do you know who picked Chrystia Freeland to come in to become a member of parliament? No. So go back in time the liberal party was the third party at the time after the 2011 election yeah and they had just elected justin trudeau as their leader and in 2013 he i from what i gather it could be wrong but he either handpicked or uh encouraged or whatever for her to run in Toronto Centre Rosedale, I think was the writing name at the time. I think this has changed. So she was one of the first people that he ushered into the Liberal team. It's a telling sign when you have one of the first people that you handpick come in. Now she's for whatever reason, there is disagreement between her and Justin Trudeau.

I guess people can understand why or figure it out. She leaves in a way that's like maximum negative impact for the party and leadership. There was a caucus meeting today. Five o'clock in person only. From what I gather is when she showed up, there was a standing ovation. She went? It's a sitting member. Every member.

Sure she had to go. Good for her. So she went. Do you see how good this policy is? The things like how glowingly I'm speaking of Minister Freeland, with whom I disagree on basically everything. This is the courage. And you can say, and this is a valid case we made that we shouldn't sugarcoat her past, the trucker convoy, various things that are very close to the hearts of Bitcoiners. There's no need to erase history. But what we have here, I think, is at least some potential for reform both in her

personally and in the party and you want competitive parties in your democratic state i'm i'm happy to see this i am and was there any way out of this no carney was looking like he was gonna somehow come in and what position was Carney going to get? You're not going to give him. Was it Canadian? He tried. Apparently he said no to finance minister a few times already. So I'm still debating in my head why he would run.

But if you are going to have Freeland go into any other position, it's a demotion yes this prime minister because well no she generally the way things are it's prime minister is the biggest the top and then just below it is the finance minister yes so other than that like if she's the finance minister what position could you offer her to say yeah this is it's a unless it's i thought initially a way to dangle a carrot for her maybe just a wrong term but i'm just gonna use that for now is that give her uh an ambassador position or a high commission position somewhere she won't i think she wants to lead the party in the country that could be it and guess what i think after

today she's gotta be the favorite is she not after today, she's got to be the favorite. Is she not? Well, let's go back. Like the silence today from Karina Gold, from Champagne, from Frazier, who resigned but still showed up. He had to. He's a member. For QP. I know.

But like the other members didn't show up, Len. So he didn't have to do anything. And like these guys. He's a member for qp i know but like the other members didn't show up len so he didn't have to do anything and and like these guys are minister there's no minister like very few ministers that didn't show up today whatever there's at least a few that didn't and for him to show up is fine and i get it you know what you're saying but i think that if you look across the the roster of liberal mps now who's the like it's got to be her right she's the favorite probably she was always 100 she was always a candidate but she was too close to the pm before right and a few months distancing herself exactly a great letter a few months of well-placed interviews uh a few months of well-placed um critical commentary while she continues to be an MP. She's got to be the favorite.

Big losers today, the PM, obviously, like that office has got to be in tatters. Telford, who will never work again once the PM is done. And I think Melanie Jolie, another huge, huge loser today, tried to get a New York Times, whatever New York Magazine glow up last week and just gets you know obliterated today by what was again a really high quality piece of comms and a very well executed comm strategy from uh freeland and her um her team now carney he is how old 60 something probably 59 yeah So we could play out this whole scenario.

Theoretically, he becomes the next leader of the liberal party, even or finance minister, and then eventually becomes leader of the liberal party. And it could be during when they're either still have a government and he could be the prime minister or he could be in opposition or third party, depending on where they end up. What's the long term strategy for Mark Carney? Fifty nine years old right now. Yeah, he I would suggest that if there is an election and there should be no one in the next 10 months or so, just the way everything is looking is going to be a change in government. Yeah. And I'm not saying anything that's going to, you know, knock people's socks off.

So you're probably going to have two terms of the other guys and gals doing their thing, potentially another eight years. Then he'll be what? 67 at that particular moment, maybe 68 if it's next election next year. And then he would now get his kick at the can to become prime minister yeah i don't see a scenario i don't see it i don't right like the guy he's he's so let's get your so let's get your prediction for the party let's say

for um give me the six month and 12 month you know who's at the helm is there election six months from now six months you know what i don't have fraser would have been somebody i thought that could have been their long term he's really enough he's young enough he's a very good orator like i i think that he you could say what he wanted about how he handled uh ircc but i think that there's enough to him that he's an East Coaster. There's a lot there, but you know what? It looks like he wants to spend more time with his family, and that's great.

That's good for him. He's choosing that rather than politics. Politics is a tough gig, and it takes a lot out of you and your family. So I don't know. I don't see him running and winning. I can't see Carney really being there for a long term joe lee no gold doesn't i i don't know so i i don't know and if this is like every party except for maybe

the liberals of the 90s and early 2000s is they never had somebody groomed ready harper had that same problem um mulroney had that same problem, at least in the liberal party of the nineties and early two thousands, there was infighting between Paul Martin and Kretchen. So you kind of figured when one was going to leave Kretchen, Paul Martin was going to step in and take control. Didn't really work out that way in the long run. He had just one minority government.

And then after that he was kicked out. So that's the problem is parties generally are centralized around one individual, and there's no heir apparent. They get centralized around one person when they don't have – this is the thing that's really amazing to me. The liberals have been a cult of personality around Trudeau for 15 years and like there's not been any real successes as a government from this liberal which is weird right like no no no no there what is the success what is it he is the only leader that has taken a party from third party status to winning anything. And he just went a minority government. He went an outright majority. That is a massive win.

He is a, when it comes to campaign time, he is an animal. That's his bread and butter. I don't think he's going to have enough to win next time around, but he's really good when it comes to campaign time he's that's that's where he just tends to shine and he hasn't lost an election yet that's proof isn't it putting yeah uh i don't think he's gonna be at the helm for the next election

and i think that election is going to come before the summertime i've said it for a long time that i can't see him being there next time around next election when it happens to be honest i don't think it's going to happen before the end i would be shocked i would be i would just be shocked the other thing too to keep in mind like is that i don't think they think it's going to happen either because uh what's his name there who was the uh guy who was named interim finance minister i can't remember um not champagne um no but dominic leblanc leblanc kept his security portfolio for being well i think that tells you that what's happening is that this is an interim appointment and i i expect that they're going to bring somebody in to be the finance minister and

like again i'd be shocked if it was carney but like who else from the party would want it or the party declining to give the the fes um presumably there's a pre-written speech for that they wouldn't give it it's like it's like a radioactive everything is that that whole file is radioactive and if you step into it, you got to know that there's a, you know, Carney size shadow looming over you at all times. So meaningless because whoever comes in,

most likely you're going to be sitting in opposition or even worse. There's, I can't see any way in which they could form government given the way all the, the polls are showing. It's been consistent. Obviously not now. I can't see any way in which they could form government, given the way all the polls are showing. It's been consistent. Oh, obviously not now. I mean, if you didn't think so before, now it's over. Right. And again, I'm not saying anything that's going to knock people's socks off, but there's a growing discontent within the Liberal Party. You now have Liberal MPs that are coming out, letters pending letters and publicly stating that it's time for the leader to step down apparently it's upwards of 60 mps you were

saying 60 liberal mps sorry are upset and want to see something done that's a lot it's hard to govern a nation when you have total control of your party or total support of your party that's better way to say it it's impossible to govern a nation when the party itself is fractured yeah and so to go like a step further um or even backwards the ndp i cannot see them wanting to trigger an election before the end of this whole term because like i said they don't have the funding that they need in order to run a general election yeah if they do if you're in jagmeet singh's shoes why would you want to trigger an election you could look at the pools and his writing it's showing he's not going to be re-elected why would you even do that right now? So you would say,

I'd like to wait this out for as long as possible. Let's try to talk to the people, try to resonate with them, try to build support. And in the meantime, we'll try to increase the money coming in through donations. I just don't see it for them. They're the party of the low IQ and underemployed.

Unfortunately, the NDP, it's hard to raise money from that crowd. You know, it's like getting blood from a stone, even when economic times are good, when they're bad. You know, those people, where are you going to do your fundraising campaigns at a food bank? It's very difficult. Yeah, it's very difficult. But I could tell you if they don't have any expenses, they probably for sure they do but they will probably have more money in 10 months than they do right now just because of just in general they could do some campaigning they could do some fundraising they do whatever how much campaigning or how much

fundraising are they doing now like i should sign up for the mailing list of all the big three parties and just see like how big is the push bin for campaign money it isn't mr green you one of your mps are my god i was watching the um qp today with kenzie and matt green gets on the mic there and i just like this is asking how will they have more money just people in general unions will support them i know it's tough times for everybody, but do you think that's, I don't know. I'm not saying this.

I'm not saying they won't get support, but like the question isn't the question. Like, is the, is the question about money? This is not a politics podcast, but we fucking burn 40 minutes on this already. Is the,

the question is like money is one piece of it, but you, you have to balance that with public opinion. And what you have to ask yourself is, if they drag this on another year, will it matter how much money they have? The Conservative Party, in my personal opinion, cannot get past 50% of support. You think they can't? There's a ceiling for them. I think there is. They were kind of close, like 42, 43, whatever.

I think 50, and I'm just throwing that number out, I just can't see them going past that. You're going to have the remaining 50 to 60 that's going to have to vote for someone else. Now, the Bloc is going to get theirs, and the Liberals are going to get theirs, so the NDP is going to get a slice of that pie. Right now, what it 15 20 ish yeah could it go up i can't go down well

like is it possible that singh looks at the polling numbers in a week and is like yeah my strategy is working just because trudeau goes down another five six seven percent and he picks up three percent and he's like look we're you know we're doing better now you know and the strategy just keeps looping like i don't know you know something if there's a change in leaders for the liberal party there's a honeymoon period that follows that yeah and there's generally a jump generally a jump in support for that and if that's the case where does that come from some from the conservatives a small bit from the ndp so it's going to make it even harder for the ndp to want to trigger an election because they'll be further behind the eight ball than they are right now so that what i got it's just a gong

show for canada like it's at a time like i said earlier when trump is bringing in maybe the most competent set of advisors the white house has seen in 50 years to have this going on here is like it just could not be worth timing you know the liberals are having their own um christmas party at the west in in ottawa this wednesday i heard and so that will be i would love to be a fly on the wall for that. Why don't we just go? I don't know what the cost would be, but would you want to go? I certainly wouldn't. Like the cost of travel. Boomer, you're closest.

If we send you a few bucks, would you want to go for us and report in? We can, we'll expense you $2,000 for a ticket. But you have to rent a tuxedo. I'm not buying you a tuxedo. It's suit and tie. you can get in with that so i'm trying to get at that party could you imagine the vibe over there oh my god compared to previous years where they were the government or even just the overall like the mood of trudeau he's third party but there's still this you know this this thought okay we could do something it must have been like a good time to be there now it ain't no there is fracture you probably

have areas like that just people hate each other and then how could you have the leader show up and then i guess he would give a speech right it would only make sense that christmas party it's going to be just absolutely horrendous in terms of vibe vibe over there. I look forward to the leaks from the caucus meeting tonight, tomorrow, Friday, whatever, whenever that happens. And I look forward to seeing what Parliament looks like when it resumes. Parliament breaking for Christmas Thursday, right? Wednesday, I think, is the last session. Yeah, Wednesday's the last session. it's more yeah wednesday's last session so thursday they're they're off and then they're gone for i think a month right

so yeah six weeks or something like that so there's possible they could prorogue and if that happens every single bill it'll get it'll get so loud it'll get so loud if they prorogue yeah you know the other guys did it and the other guys did it at an interesting time if you recall and just after the election when there was that agreement between the liberals the ndp and the block and then harper prorogued right after so you know what this is this is canadian politics and people might get upset but the other guys have done it i'm not trying to justify it i'm just trying to say it is it's it's fun to be uh an entertaining political event for once right like we're always looking at the states for for content on this show it's nice today to be able to watch rosie barton get a feel for uh yeah

funny oh and it's not supposed to snow until wednesday in ottawa from what i understand so if that's the case who knows who the heck knows and one thing i'm not sure if they have any trips that are going to be uh to italy though or switzerland it was both in switzerland right it's a lugano let's go lugano did they go lugano no it was it was zurich i believe it was zurich and i think they landed in toronto but i don't know let's keep moving because we just blew 45 minutes on that story it's a big story and it's relevant for canadians but if you're a bitcoiner i mean you don't really care that much it's like entertainment more than anything else and reading through the fes will make you like so happy that you bought bitcoin and are not relying

on policymakers to support the value of your currency because they didn't happen today. The Canadian dollar stayed steady. Even with all this instability, there was no movement for whatever. You're at basically like a 40 year support line, right? So you'd expect to see this thing take a while to break down. We hit 59 in 2001. Yeah.

We have 59 cents. Yeah. Very briefly. Yeah. So we'll get there again. We'll 59 cents. Very briefly. We'll get there again. Potentially. And then just at that time, seven years later, we were like at 110, 115. It's funny.

The other thing, just one other thing I want to know from the FES that I thought was interesting. There's a whole page dedicated to how the Canadian dollar is one of the biggest new allocations for foreign central bank reserves in 2024. And I thought to myself reading that, does anything really demonstrate a lack of understanding of how markets work the same way that this statement does anywhere else in this article or in this report? I'm not sure.

The PMO is making the case that this is a sign that canada's currency is on the come up and where the plan is working and the value of the loonie is increasing you know len you've known me a long time what am i going to say the reason is for people buying cad in 2024 and putting it in their reserves i can't think of a single reason. I can't think of a single reason, but I can't think of a single reason why would anyone want to buy the same with the yen? So I'll tell you the reason. The reason they're selling is that the productivity story in Canada is not as bad as Pierre Polyev says, and the currency is not a bad investment.

All the currencies are going to shit though. Here's what actually the reason is. The reason is that it's at a low and literally a banana peel coming into the PMO's office next year will increase the productivity of the country and the currency will bounce back a little bit. They're buying the lows. They can see the writing on the wall. This government's not going to be there in 25.

And they're taking advantage of an easy trade, maybe a year, two year trade, whatever. That's how I see it. And for the PMO to write this article as though buying the currency now means that it's that it's strong now no it means it's going to be strong later and what you need to ask yourself is if you're still going to be there later the answer is obviously no like just just such a such a clear misunderstanding of the reality on the ground in markets the reality of why someone buys something, the nature of a currency reserve.

They're buying it because it can't get any worse than you. And they know that next year, no matter who wins, it'll be better than it is now. It'll go anywhere. It could go better. If I had to guess, I mean, this dollar milkshake theory that we've been saying for quite some time, it's playing itself out now, right? So why can't the Canadian dollar

go worse against the United States dollar? The Euro ditto. The Japanese yen, the Australian dollar. You go on and on and on. They're all suffering. And you think with Trump coming in and putting tariffs, it's going to make the U.S. dollar weaker? We don't have to worry about that. I don't know, man. Because as the 51st state,

we'll be able to use uh the u.s dollar anyway so you know what hopefully it would we can finally be able to get 20 timbits for two dollars again it'll be probably not no and just looking at with all this talk of tariffs and stuff like that hopefully it could spur some businesses to i understand it's tough to set up business here but then we could try to be more self-sufficient not just canada but every country totally i totally agree that is the rational response by the way to to look in the mirror and go oh fuck it's been 40 fucking years since we had any um semblance of self-sufficiency economically militarily you name it and yeah this guy's coming in he's going

to tell us he's basically giving us a warning like by the way it's gonna be a tough four years for you if you don't turn this around and our response is to complain like what if they they just go to the extra mile and they front run the united states and they go call tiff and say tiff we need a couple of trill we're gonna buy bitcoin should could you imagine we'll never do it we have no like i said to you before no innovation no finesse over here we're like we are the definition of fighting yesterday's wars as i sit here brushing my football like i listen i am like so fed up with thinking. I shouldn't say fed up. I'm so done with sitting around waiting for someone to knock me out with an idea, to blow me away with an innovative idea in finance and politics and economics

on the Canadian side. It's just never coming. Polyam is not going to do it. Even if they see you buying Bitcoin, is that really going to knock you over? It would knock me over because it would at least show me that there's a willingness not only to take a risk, but a willingness to upset the established order in the short term with a longer term view of prosperity. And we just simply don't have that in Canada. And many Western nations don't have that thanks to the election cycle. We're not unique in that way but like this idea that that we we you know have to complain and we're gonna

like doug ford oh we're gonna put taxes on energy no one cares you're a drop in the bucket dude you're a fucking idiot well like to say that kind of stuff makes you sound stupid it's not taxes he he would basically want to stop it so you know that he'd stop some energy flow over the states which do you know the they provide a decent amount of electricity to three states who cares people are gonna like i said to you last week and maybe like maybe we don't see eye to eye on this like there's a difference between when Canada says something about energy and tariffs and whatever else to the states and the US saying it to us. And the difference is two-prong. One, we can't exert any soft power. The US has everything we have and will make changes on a dime

to make sure that things go well over there that we simply cannot make. And two, they are our military. We don't have soft power or hard power. We have no influence on the global stage, zero, none, nothing. And the idea that we literally can't influence policy, the PMO can't influence policy at the provincial level. The idea that a premier can influence outcomes in the United States is laughable. It wouldn't be influencing the outcome. It's just tit for tat. It's essentially saying, but no,

no, see, Ford thinks it's tit for tat. What it actually is, is a fly in the bed with you. It's annoying, but killing it is not that hard no it's and you know we have to realize that we're not the ones you know like we we are the fly in the bed and no one seems to understand this anywhere everywhere i look it's posturing it's sound

bites it's this it's that we're gonna take on trump no you're fucking no you're not taking on anybody like but one thing you have to understand is when it impacts you then it means something and when it starts impacting people in the state of wisconsin michigan and new york you can go overseas and see what happened in germany for instance as an example now they don't have energy coming into the same degree that they had before when they had nuclear plants. Now they're relying on the sun and wind. And some days the sun isn't shining because it's blocked by clouds or the wind isn't shining. Now they have to import energy from, I believe, could be wrong, Denmark. And as a result, people living in Denmark are paying at a much higher rate for electricity.

So they're pissed off because of it. So there is results that fucking happen. But again, like until it impacts you, then you're like, fuck, this shit sucks. The U.S. is not Denmark. Like the U.S. will spin up power if they have to. Yeah, for sure. They will. And, you know, hopefully they buy uranium from good old Canada.

Yeah, maybe. And it's we have a lot that the rest of the world desires. And we can make sure that we can put that to market and make sure that it keeps food on our plates. We need a government to do that for us, for sure. It will take any government to figure this out. Fresh water, we have tons. The world needs this.

Wheat, lumber, oil, natural gas, uranium, diamonds, gold. Maybe not diamonds. We're making it now in in in labs yeah there's a lot we have here right like i just yeah i don't know i am not i think you're more bullish on canada than i am i mean we talked about this last week i was listening back to the show when i was doing the shorts and you know you're saying how this is the best place in

the world to live maybe short of the states and yeah it's a great place to make a living, I think. I know a lot of people say, yeah, you know what? Try to look somewhere else in the world and say, I'd rather live here and earn a living. And it may not be as good as Canada, in my opinion. Now what? We did a whole hour on free. Bank of Canada did some rate cuts. We could talk about that.

50 basis points. I heard that's good. I heard that's a good thing. It is what it is. And it's a good talking point for some. It's a good talking point for others to show why things are good or bad. So if you're in a market of trying to get debt or you have existing debt right now, good for you, especially if it's a floating debt. If it's fixed,

you're probably kicking yourself because this thing has been going down and down. It needs to go down. It should be going down even further next year. Now, we were pointing at the Canadian dollar, the weakness of it compared to the United States dollar. The Federal Reserve hasn't been cutting rates as aggressively as

Canada. They meet this week. They meet Wednesday. So there may come a point where they may start playing catch up because let's be honest, Canada could only go as far down as what? Slightly below zero. Yeah. And we're a long way from that. We're 3.25 right now.

The estimation, by the way, in the FES is 2% till 26 or 27, I think. so as the Fed starts making moves and the bank of canada is going to be either slowing down or stopping their moves because they've been aggressively cutting then there's going to be a shift in the canadian dollar uh gaining value against the u.s dollar at least based on that move there could be others that could dictate where the Canadian dollar is going to. So the Fed hasn't been doing very much comparative.

No. The Fed, I expect the Fed on Wednesday to say they're cutting. I mean, it's priced in, basically. They always do what the market likes. But I do expect them to say that, look, we're going to slow down now. You may not get cuts from us every meeting going forward. We think we're in a good spot. Things are trending in the right direction.

We don't want to overcorrect. And have a good christmas leave some cookies and milk out for the big guy not joe biden but the other big guy and uh enjoy your your holiday but don't look forward to another cut in january i think that's where the federal reserve is the u.s economy has been pretty resilient surprisingly so in fact um yeah like i i continue to think that there's the discrepancy between the u.s and canada is going to become difficult for canadians to ignore as more and more more investment pours into an investor-friendly united states like people always say uh when when we get an election we'll have a more friendly business government yeah Yeah, but Trudeau's liberals for another year, while Trump and the Republicans are in the states, offering basically no red tape for anyone who comes in and spends over a billion

dollars, no issues with weird taxes or licenses or any of this stuff. You had Masayoshi Sun today making an announcement. He's going to pump a hundred billion into the U S invest a hundred billion in us companies. Like where's that investment for us? Where's that announcement? Instead you get, you know,

Volkswagen or whatever. And then on their earnings call, they say, yeah, well the only reason we invest in Canada is because they basically gave us a huge subsidy. Like it's a positive for us. 800 million or whatever.

Right. Like we, we never, there's never like a really high quality announcement from us meanwhile in the states since trump took over it's been nothing but and like to me it's just so obvious and people in the chat saying won't poly have to do something useful like honestly i doubt it i doubt it i have literally no hope short to medium, to turn the country around. The problems here are so significant. Go ahead. Do you know that Canada's corporate tax, at least from this, I'm looking at Google, it could be wrong.

Corporate tax in Canada is 6% lower in Canada than the United States. Yeah, but who cares? The currency is worth nothing. It is. The currency is worth nothing. All the skilled labor leaves. The taxes, the red tape is worth nothing. It is. The currency is worth nothing. All the skilled labor leaves. The taxes, the red tape is incredibly high. It certainly is high.

What I'm trying to get at is in terms of taxation, income tax is 50%. At that level, I'm talking. I'm not talking about other levels. There is some advantages there. Of course there is. That's why we incorporated the show. I know what the corporate tax rate is.

It's fucking close to nothing. It's why we do the things we do with the show's finances. But at the end of the day, people who are making real money don't want to get paid in worthless currency. And that's what we have. People who are making real money don't want to live in a place where you're importing all the inflation in the world because you don't produce anything. People don't want to live in a place where if they work and make it to the top tier, they pay 50% of their wealth, 50% of their income, I should say, in income tax. They don't want to live under threat of unrealized capital gains. They don't want to live under threat of not being able to get healthcare when they need it.

Like no one in their right mind is staying here unless they absolutely fucking have to. You and me have talked about this. You know what i mean like it's being executed you know what i'm saying but like you're not leaving yet but you're trying you're ready to go you're planning on going as soon as you can i'm i'm you know i have ties here still yeah and um you know people who don't before those ties go but yeah the statistically shows no like they're just not going to stay. The people, you're going to see real brain drain here.

And it's not like this is even a theoretical thing. Look at the GDP per capita. When people say, look at all the direct foreign investment we're getting. Look at the best and brightest we're getting. No, we're fucking not. We're getting Uber drivers and McDonald's workers. Now, the question, Joey, if things things play out say in a decade from now

or whatever heck it may be are we still doing this and this is the international coiners podcast it'll become international like i'm not gonna stick man like i've had difficult conversations with my wife and like i obviously have a kid now but like i'm not gonna wait for things to get so bad that i have to leave i'm gonna assume to assume that we're going to continue down this path. I'm going to do the things I have to do in the meantime. But the thing about Bitcoin is it makes you agile, you know, to be able to pick up and go and not worry about, oh, what about these exit? I have to go through the bank for this.

Like, no, you don't have to do anything. You just leave and you never look back and you go to a jurisdiction that wants you that welcomes you that invites you that makes it your bank account is secured up to 100 000 canadian dollars oh perfect that's great for me in the states it's 250 000 usd so it's a big deal i'm surprised they have four times the amount or something like that like just something insane yeah i'm surprised they haven't modernized that in canada say look it's gonna be like 300 000 canadian or whatever where are they gonna get the money to insure more than that what do you think the taxes they're collecting on the guy delivering pizzas like there's no fucking money there's no money where we're at 100 billion

deficit like there is no money it's unbelievable it was never gonna it was never fucking fully back back sorry it was running fdic running ads during games not good cp what does it say i'm gonna watch ads during games not good what do they say i'm curious what do these i'd say cpib oh don't worry about the pensions fully people just moving they're they're like moving boxes into a moving van like oh have you heard about the cpp is it fully funded yeah the cpp like two two guys moving boxes talking about the pension being funded but why are you watching the canadian speed that's how i want to know why because even dozen gives you the canadian feed for some games so anyway the whole point is that none of this stuff is safe bitcoin is the only off ramp that makes any sense

and if you don't do it like well then you're at the mercy of the fall economic statement you know that none of this stuff is safe. Bitcoin is the only off-ramp that makes any sense. And if you don't do it, well, then you're at the mercy of the fall economic statement. You're at the mercy of the CPPIB. You're at the mercy of whatever. Nothing is safe. The Fed's just yanked a couple of billion from the public sector pension. Just took it. This is not the first time that's been done. I know it's not. And you know what happens every time they do it? A couple of years later, they say that they need the contributions to increase because the pension's underfunded. Wonder why that is. Wonder why that is.

It's always coming from you. Like I said last week, the money is fucking... I'm going to look at the camera for this. For everybody except you, the money is fucking free. Stop playing the game. Buy some Bitcoin

and start thinking about how you're going to get the fuck out of here because if you don't by the time you think about it it's going to be way too fucking late now let's let's go further on this you buy your bitcoin where do you buy it from bull bitcoin yeah and it you're you know if you're buying from bull you're moving it off chain as i unchain onto your own how How do you confirm, Joey? How does one confirm that you have your Bitcoin? We have to get you it's fucking

money before I set up a node in fucking credible, Joey and the amount of resources you have to put into setting up a node. I can't afford it. You can run it on your computer you have right now. It could be fucking a road I can't afford it. It ain't fucking affordability.

You have 15 gigabytes. Yeah, whatever the fuck. 10 gigabytes to run a fucking prune node. And I understand it's not the best, but it's better than having nothing. I also went up over the break, the holiday break. Yes. Let's go on to something else. What are we talking about?

Let's go to Bitcoin related because we've been an hour at this. We're going to skip the notable stories tonight. That was the Freeland hour. If you're on audio, again, a couple hundred people, man. I'm happy to see all this viewership, listenership. Hang out. Don't go anywhere. If you're listening on audio after the fact, the rest of the

episode will be out tomorrow, so take care of yourself until then. And don't be a finance minister.