The Canadian Bitcoiners Podcast - Bitcoin News With a Canadian Spin - The Coming Economic Longwave: What You Need to Know (w/ Joseph Barbuto) | The CBP

Episode Date: May 22, 2025

FRIENDS AND ENEMIESJoin Joseph Barbuto as we explore the concept of the economic longwave, also known as the Kondratiev wave, and its potential impact on the Canadian economy. With the country facing uncertainty in the real estate market, rising debt levels, and concerns over jobs and immigration, it's essential to understand the underlying economic indicators that shape our financial future. In this video, we'll delve into the world of hard assets, leverage investing, and the role of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in a rapidly changing global economy. From the perspectives of former Bank of Canada governor and now Prime Minister Mark Carney to the current Liberal government, we'll examine the different viewpoints on the economic longwave and what it means for your investments and financial planning. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just starting to build wealth, this video will provide you with valuable insights and growth opportunities to help you navigate the coming economic shift. So, what can you do to prepare for the economic longwave? Watch to find out.Joseph on X: https://x.com/TheELongWaveMore from Joseph: https://economiclongwave.com/#Bitcoin #Kondratiev #EconomicLongwave #BTC #WealthManagement #investingJoin us for some QUALITY Bitcoin and economics talk, with a Canadian focus, every Monday at 7 PM EST. From a couple of Canucks who like to talk about how Bitcoin will impact Canada. As always, none of the info is financial advice. Website: ⁠www.CanadianBitcoiners.com⁠Discord:   / discord   A part of the CBP Media Network: ⁠www.twitter.com/CBPMediaNetworkThis show is sponsored by: easyDNS - ⁠⁠www.easydns.com⁠⁠ EasyDNS is the best spot for Anycast DNS, domain name registrations, web and email services. They are fast, reliable and privacy focused. With DomainSure and EasyMail, you'll sleep soundly knowing your domain, email and information are private and protected. You can even pay for your services with Bitcoin! Apply coupon code 'CBPMEDIA' for 50% off initial purchase Bull Bitcoin - ⁠⁠https://mission.bullbitcoin.com/cbp⁠⁠ The CBP recommends Bull Bitcoin for all your BTC needs. There's never been a quicker, simpler, way to acquire Bitcoin. Use the link above for 25% off fees FOR LIFE, and start stacking today.

Creating it like a threat. And one of the things that can't be attacked is your self custody Bitcoin. And one of the things that can be attacked is the ETF. Can't be exposed to that. That's my view. It's not a good idea. And by the way, that'll hit MSTR too.

It'll probably get other stuff as well. Friends and enemies, welcome back. Canadian Bitcoiners podcast. Friends and enemies, welcome to the CBP. Wanna be better and formless, so to Len and Joey. Spots is taking care of right off the top Oh Bitcoin and easy DNS the media is feeding a slop

It doesn't matter what topics discussed quality entertainment and information you can trust Information you can trust send the guys some value boost them with some stats Bitcoin is the scarcity asset I mean, it's just a fact Friends and enemies, welcome back. The CBP. Thanks again to Deez Laughs for that intro. Outstanding stuff. My name is Joey here with a man who shares my name and many of my viewpoints tonight. Joseph Barbudo is here. He's been on the show before. You may know him as the economic longwave on Twitter. We are in a interesting time here in Canada and across much of the world that you're seeing many of the same things, many of the same themes playing out. And we're going to talk about all that. We were just talking before the show about how it may seem kind of doomer, but the thing about the longwave is that it really is a cycle that's always considering what

opportunities will arise after the downfall of the current market economic social structure and I think you know it's hard to debate that we're in somewhat of a fourth turning now if we're not coming up on one and we're going to cover all that this evening with Joe. First though the sponsor is EZDNS, the best place for you to host a website. Mark is the friendly neighborhood registrar, as we always say. Been a friend of the show for a long time and we recommend using him. If you're going to start a business, start a website, host some content, whatever, he'll never take it down, which is huge these days. But on top

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you can do it there. How can you do it? You can buy gift cards. Yeah, that's okay. A lot of people sell gift cards. You know, I will grant you that. But how many people let you pay your mortgage payment on their platform, on their Bitcoin platform? None that I know of. How many people let you pay your cell phone bill? University tuition if you're roped into that scam still. None. Just these guys. Go over, use the code CBP, you get 25% off all the fees for life if you use a promo code to sign up, our promo code to sign up, which is like, they used to give $20 or $21. This is a lot better I think. You're going to enjoy that service if you haven't used it already. Coming to us live from warmer geographies, Joseph Barbudo is here. Buddy, first of all, it's good to see you. Second of all, disappointing.

You know, we were chatting before the show. Disappointing to see that it looks to me as though you've got a little bit of color. You're wearing a short sleeve shirt. There's a gratuitous number of buttons undone at the top. And I am here in a hoodie in the basement. It's fucking freezing over here in Canada, rainy day. What's going on, man? Good to see you. Hey, thanks for inviting me back. Yeah. I kind of like, I think I've told the story. I don't hide my personal challenges and whatever, but I got married and got married and realized that my wife, I had to get her deleveraged and make some big changes and it finally occurred. And she was offered a, just an educational role in Florida

and we're here for, we don't know yet, six months a year, could be longer. So yeah, lucky and I'm in this card room in our apartment, an apartment. So, you know, I know, Joe, you're concerned. Did you buy something? No, no, no, no debt. We're actually in a place.

I mean, you know, I'm big picture guy and, and she said, well, what if we buy a place here? And I said, well, I looked at the real estate and it just peaked. I'm actually in Tampa, Florida. So I'm watching the real estate market and the US market's never been as expensive. So no, we're not buying anything. We don't plan to because I believe there's a US real estate markets probably peaking now or will be within the next six months to the year at max. I am still jealous regardless of your rental versus mortgage position. Like I said, okay, I and we're chatting before show. Maybe we could start, we'll start

with this, okay. You know, the real estate thing right now, Joe, is hot topic in Bitcoin world, in real estate world. It's really a hot topic everywhere for a number of reasons. When I think about on the Bitcoin side, you may agree with this, I don't know, a lot of Bitcoiners, even guys younger than me, you know, guys who are just coming into family family formation years, guys who are 25, 30 years old, they're talking about not buying a home to live in and put down roots in because they think it's just not going to outperform Bitcoin. I think, you know, your position would be this is

not the time to take on leverage given where we are in the long wave and broader economic cycle. There's many other better ways to spend your money as opposed to putting it into something you think is going to build equity that might not be the vehicle it was 15 or 20 years ago. Do these guys both have it, right? Are we really at the time now where new families, are things so bad or are they going to get so bad on the horizon that new families who are things so bad or are they gonna get so bad on the horizon that new families who wanna put down roots have to at least consider that the damage they'll be doing

to their economic situation long-term outweighs the benefits of the stability of home ownership? Oh yeah, see, that's tough questions. A great question because like I have a model and that model is general information so it can give you some guidance, right? I used to be a financial planner for 23 years and financial planners, I always tell people

you should have a financial planner because everybody's circumstance is different, right? You could be the same age but have different cashflow, income, debts. You could be purchasing a home in Calgary versus Toronto. So what I try to do is give people general information to help them make a better decision, right? And including advisors.

Most of my clients on Substack are advisors, or they work in the financial industry, and they're looking for an unbiased model. And they know my background is that I came from loss and I started this investment business the same year in 89. So I witnessed that period. And I, and what, what I learned from that was that I'm never going to lose money again and I'm going to be the best advisor possible. And then I fell into this thing about the long wave.

What I'm trying to suggest here is that this cycle, real estate cycle, this de-leveraging is going to be very long. And I believe it's going to last at least until the end of this decade. Now, if you look at the numbers, even the great Toronto bust in the 90s, people were still buying and there was no negative or de-leveraging by Canadians. Actually Canadians did de-leverage in early 81, a slight amount if you look at the credit growth. It was the only time since the 30s, year over year, credit growth went negative. That was 81 for a short time, because interest rates skyrocketed and it just priced everybody

out of the market. But in the 90s, there was still real estate activity, but people were buying at lower prices. But I'll tell you, after the collapse, there was no interest in real estate as an investment. It was simply as a home. And I recall, you know, purchasing a home near the bottom. I knew that the worst was behind us. And it took a couple more years before it actually, in real terms, bottomed. But it went sideways until 2002. And then real estate took on in life. And I think that was the millennials coming in.

So that's a tough question to answer for a person, because one person, it could make sense. And that's why is to take the information of what I give and other people who would look at real estate from a secular perspective and their own with their financial planner. I I've been trying to warn people and as many people as possible, walking into real estate and again, I'm a Torontonian. I always be a Torontonian, I love this city. Well, I'm not there anymore, but I love Toronto. And it's tough because I remember growing up as a kid,

the excitement and the opportunity in the 70s, when we had stable governments, low private debt, reasonable home prices, the opportunities were amazing. And there was just great real economic growth. And now it's just, as we know, the real GDP per capita has gone sideways for 10 years under the liberal government. And we have a ponzi bubble. Without that bubble, there would be no economic growth. So people have never complained about the liberals because there wasn't economic damage. As we know, in the 90s, even the NDP were kicked out of power, because once the downturn is severe, I don't care who you are, you'll be kicked out of power. So and we haven't, we're not even there yet.

be kicked out of power. So and we haven't, we're not even there yet. I'm surprised. I haven't even had a financial crisis. Yeah. Yeah. And that's still in the future. So I'm saying, and this is what I'll say, look, work with a financial advisor, and listen to other people who are unbiased, who don't work in the industry, because they're gonna give you bias information. I'm saying that we have a financial crisis in front of us, which we're going to have a banking crisis, and we're going to have a sovereign debt crisis. Now the banking crisis means liquidity will shrink and it'd be harder to get loans,

and the sovereign debt crisis in simplicity means that interest rates are going to skyrocket. What does that do to people refinancing? I mean, that will be the final nail on the coffin for real estate. If you look at the demographics for the baby boomers, everybody always talks about immigration and immigration, but I keep saying, look, the baby boomers are now ending and coming to a point where they're going to be putting a huge supply over the next 25 years to the market. And as Japan experienced, this is why Harry Dent, who called the Japanese real estate bubble, he was looking for a revival of 96, but it didn't bottom until 2012.

And then it was obvious to the demographer, it was the huge amount of supply because their deaths were just overwhelming the newographer, it was the huge amount of supply because their deaths were just overwhelming the new buyers, right? Now, it's interesting. Since 2012, the population's been, I think, shrinking, yet the real estate prices have been going up. So it just kills the whole theory about immigration and population. And I did the work and I said, there's no connection. There's no connection between population growth and real estate prices. None. It's affordability. And the reason you had this huge demand coming in, but real estate prices, I attached a chart to this podcast on Twitter, is we're having another really bad month, right, last month. And the reason is the supply is coming on because of speculators and the fear of the market.

So what happens, people say, oh, supply and demand are equal. They're never equal because you cannot look at demographics. You have to look at what was driving real estate. And yeah, that was, that's, I just updated before we went on air and you can see that was a really bad month in April. You know, look at the negative numbers. Look at that. Now look at this.

Look at the trend lines, right? There you have the secular rise from 91 and notice now that trend, that green line here now is resistance as we call it. And we're still in a bear market. Now for new people, I write Kondratov's monetary wave, that's 40 years from 81 to 21. What that was, was the fall in interest rates that allowed people to leave her because at 18% mortgage versus a 2% mortgage, how much leverage

can you take? You could take a lot more than 2%. So we didn't have real incomes rise, but how did our prices rise? It was the leverage. And because of record low interest rates. Look, I've never denied it surprised all of us. 2022, we had a blow off. I never thought during the kovat that we would have a blow off in real estate prices But it makes sense after the fact we thought it was over in 2017 even though the cycle pointed to 2022 to 2024 coming to an end and when When we had that blow off and then you do an Elliott wave it was like, okay now it's over But maybe they can extend it We were shocked all of us who's been following a bubble people who study bubbles know when it's happening

it's occurring, but you never know exactly and We know when it ends especially a real estate bubble, it's never the stock market bubbles that hurt the economy. It's real estate bubbles because the leverage in the financial system and the banking system that causes the crisis, we're not there yet. And that's important for the audience and those young listeners to take into account. And it's inevitable. That's a very good answer. I'm curious, you know, one of the things I see now from policymakers, Carney's new liberal government, I mean, new in air quotes, obviously, liberal government,

talking about the affordability of homes, the cost of homes, and I'm with you, that the thing that people should be looking at is whether or not a huge chunk of the population is getting destroyed on their mortgage refis specifically. And you're in that era now. If you locked in sub 2, sub 1.5, and 20 or 21, you're coming due now at what is still nominally, you know, and certainly long-term a low rate, but 4X what you signed up for a few years ago. And so, you know, if you have a mortgage, generally what you see, I'm

careful to use that word generally obviously mortgage, generally what you see, I'm careful to use that word generally, obviously, but generally what you see is as your terms roll over, your mortgage payments decrease, both because there is or has been anyway a downward bias in rates and because more of your principal is off the loan. And so you combine these two things and life is supposed to get a little easier for you as you age into the home you've purchased. But these buyers are going to have a difficult time on the interest side and on the wage side, like you mentioned. And so it's a double whammy. You're getting pressure from both directions. And I'm curious about maybe some of your thoughts on what the government has said about

affordability, specifically that homes need to become more affordable, but not less valuable. You know, this is obviously doublespeak and in my mind, it really only leaves one option, Joe, and that's that wages have to go up to keep up with the cost of homes. This is not doable without government interference. I don't think. Do you have a view on this? What are these guys talking about?

And what do you think the likely sort of policy outcome is? If that's really the goal? Well, obviously we know they're going to try everything to prevent a de-laborage without a doubt. So that's a given. But if you do the math for Toronto and Vancouver, it would take 40 years for wages to catch up and to bring prices to nominal two to three times income historically. I can say, well, Joseph, you really think it's going to go two to three times income, maybe four or five because of women are part of the household and income. One of the things when I was learning, teaching myself about real estate, right, because I'm just curious, you know, I didn't plan to be a forecaster at all, I'm just curious and want to know what happened. And when I looked at the real estate cycle and I was like, oh my god, I didn't know this. And for the

audience, long-term mortgages didn't exist until the 30s, 1930s, almost a hundred years ago. So if you kind of think, I mean, homes are one or two times income. And that was what it's just, and there was just a, the male of the, of the home, uh, was supporting real estate. But women didn't come on. It was even, I think it wasn't even legal for women to be on a mortgage until the seventies. And if you look at, yeah, yeah, that was surprising.

Because I'm trying, well, how come prices went up? And everybody has all the reasons, but it was always affordability. Because you have to ask yourself the question, why did real estate prices go up in the 70s when interest rates were rising? Here's the thing I keep talking about people who pushed a real estate narrative.

From 1945, that was the start of spring from the long wave. And interest rates started to rise because Canadians and Americans, Europeans, delevered. So we started with a fresh plate, high savings rate, and asset prices at low levels. So from 45 until 81, that's spring and summer from the long wave. And I'll briefly go over that very quickly. What are the seasons of the four, the Condreata cycle? Interest rates were rising, so were real estate prices.

So this whole argument that real estate interest rates, you know, are not good for real estate, it doesn't meet the sniff test, so to speak, right? Like why did real estate prices go up in tandem with rising interest rates? And the reason for it, because first of all, you're starting from a low level, but incomes were rising faster than inflation.

So real incomes were rising to keep up with the rise in prices and then governments expanded mortgages. Banks couldn't even lend to the real estate market until 1954. And the leverage was only, I think the gross debt service ratio was only 25% and now it's 34. So you had leverage upon leverage and upon leverage. out 34. So you had leverage upon leverage and upon leverage. Then incomes started stalling in the mid 70s in Canada. And then we have that healthy correction. So prices up until 1984. And my parents actually were not market timers, but they were fantastic market timers because they bought in 64 and 84. And they were both secular bottoms. And 84 was the last time you could buy a home in Toronto for about three times income. And after that, people know that real estate

went through its first boom. And I was unlucky, I bought in 89 and it tripled in that five years. Why? Because we had the collapse in rates. And people look at cashflow, so they don't look at the price of the home and say, oh, I can carry a $200,000

mortgage instead of a $50,000 mortgage. So we had this had this rise. So we're at a point now, why is all the supply coming on board? Yeah. Right. How's the government going to stop social And the thing is, they can't because if they, Japan tried, and listen, Japan had the tools to stop it and they were unsuccessful and they had an expensive global economy. So when their economy turned down, they had the real estate collapse in the 90s, the government did everything.

They bailed out the banks, they bailed out the economy, they used their savings, they did fiscal spending, they did everything, and prices fell for 21 years. Because it's a psychology, and that's why the long wave is really a social mood. And we think in each part of the cycle or each season differently and and and during the monetary wave where Things are deregulated the financial we think hey real estate's a great investment Well, if you ask anybody nobody thought real estate was a great investment until the 70s It just was a place to live in and went up in value And so forth. So would they try? Yes, would they be successful? Absolutely not value, and so forth. So would they try? Yes. Would they be successful? Absolutely not. And they cannot say what I say or anybody else that's bearish that real estate prices

will correct because they know it will impact the economy. And what's the most devastating thing you can do to your own economy? Lever the private sector, the public into real estate. So worst thing you can do for the economy. There's numerous books and papers and so forth. So worst thing you can do. So they know that once that crisis occurs, they're in trouble. And I believe this is the last of the liberal time. No matter what they do, they will be... I think it's the end of the liberal party, reelected Carney. I mean, they were already out, this just guarantees it because the key is,

you learn about the cycles as you can take advantage of it, right? If I was wanting to be a leader, I would have abstained from this current business cycle. I would look at the next cycle. So will they try? Yes. Will they be successful? Absolutely not.

It's fun to, the long wave thing is fun to talk about. You know, when I first met you a few years back, I had no idea about the long wave. I had not given much thought to monetary cycles. I was kind of the, you know, if you've seen the mid curve bell curve meme, you know, I was on the left side, like things go up, things go down. And then there's the middle of it where you're talking about rates and governments and blah, blah, blah. And then I think maybe this is the far right-hand side, like the true Jedi genius side of the cycle theory, this long wave thing that it takes a long time, but it's inevitable things go up, things go down. And so maybe we could talk a bit about the long wave theory just as a interlude here. The seasonality of the long wave theory is fun. I think Canada is in you know maybe late fall, early

winter if I had to guess you know where you come down on that. Tell people about this you know long wave seasonality and why it's important and maybe specifically how do you know that Canada is in fall or winter as opposed to spring or summer? There's a number of indicators. Obviously you can touch on I'd be curious to hear one of the or a few of the big ones That you know are really dead giveaway sirens for you in that in that regard Yeah, that's a great question. And I'll tell you I'm working on that. I I'm gonna kind of switch here I've had to take a time to help my wife and so forth and kind of laid back from the long wave and I've been much less active, but now i'll be in a couple weeks fully active again and focusing and i'm writing a book

And thank god for ai Uh, it's it's doing wonders and what I mean is I realize it's so complex But with ai what i'm doing is i'm entering I got this vast I don't know. You know know whatever note is I have this vast Bible of stuff. It's all of my ever note and I take it I throw it into AI and I said Rewrite this but so and I if you know how to use it read right in a way So the simple person who can understand this great, but first write it to me

So a professional can understand this so I check it because it's my work. I never rely on AI unless I'm looking for data. And it's written some phenomenal stuff. And I said, how do I make it simpler? Because Joe and I, when we do our spaces, this is Joe Rampart for people who don't know that, you know, people who listen to the show will only catch the backend. We, we stream a little bit over of an overlap with you guys, but I always try and catch that Rampart space. It's always pretty good. You take a lot of shit on that space, I think unfairly sometimes, but you're very patient

with the crowd. Yeah, it's okay. You know what? It comes with the territory, right? But listen, here's the thing is, and I'm going to be just in defense. One of the things that I learned in 2008 when I was still actively managing money is if you're wrong You need to admit and deal with it, but not have your portfolio So I saw the 2008 crisis, but let me tell you I still made a mistake

because my models told me to cut that my gold exposure and I didn't do it and because I thought that was gonna be the big D leveraging and The the answer was so obvious gold was on a fixed standard in the 30s. It's it's it's it's it's free now, right? It's it's to float like everything else. And so of course it didn't act and lucky it did recover. And I've been a part of the gold market like it. I have like I've always said my worst investment was buying real estate in 89. The best investment was being gold in 99. Absolute bottom.

And I learned from my mentors, the seasonal guy, Richard Russell from Dow Theory, the old guys will know who he is. And he was an absolute great mentor. And like him, I would say, I'm going to be like you one day and whatever. And he would say, thank you, Joe, and thanks for subscribing. And he's just a great guy And so I'm trying to do the same thing even though I'm much younger I still have a lot in my future and I want to be part of this because it's it's fun now the long wave

to simplify it I Fell into it as I was trying to understand the market. I I'm just curious I kept breathing more and I fell onto this long way forum in the 90s and it blew me away I was very complicated and combative. So listen even on a long way forum people were fighting You know and i'm like what's going on here guys? Let's just learn from each other because there were hedge fund managers mutual fund managers academia investors The average person and I met some brilliant people because there were hedge fund managers, mutual fund managers, academia, investors, the average person, and I met some brilliant people. Michael Alexander, who wrote the Kondratov cycle,

it's a very dense, thick, technological, heavy book, and it's one of those gems that very few people read. And I realized there were so many interpretations and how could I make it simple so there are the long wave is not Condraitev never said it was a fixed cycle it averages 55 60 years it's not like the seculum or the fourth turning it's an 86 year cycle even Martin Armstrong he discovered that 86 year cycle. The long wave focuses on what drives the capitalist system. And it's always innovation that has these great waves and it ends with too much debt and there's a deleveraging and then the cycle starts. So you can see that there's been these technological advances.

And the fifth wave, which we've been building since the 90s, is decentralized and it started with the internet, this technology, the internet, smartphones. I mean, I had computers cost me, it was $12,000. And I think I have more RAM on this computer compared to the whole thing What I used to carry then and I can't believe what people complain about the price. I go look Okay, I can get for $2,000 man. I had a car phone $2,000 $400 to install it and it was $2 a minute and now I got this thing that I can take the best pictures in the world

It's like what it's only a grand So that's how I see things, right? so So technology drives it Uh too much debt And a deed leveraging ends it now there's four seasons, so spring starts when the deed leveraging is done and Uh, so spring, uh in all intents and purposes, we can argue, but it started in 1945. And we started on a clean slate. And you can see the records and the

deleveraging was done. And people start to lever again. And what was driving this, of course, was mass production, centralization, automobiles, cheap gas, and all these technologies. And then we saw it move into aircrafts and so forth. And it was centralized. The government became more powerful. But that really started in the 30s when the government stepped in the New Deal. And they started with central banks, taxation.

And so this is why we know what's come to an end. Now from spring, spring was from 1946 until about 1967, it's about 21 years, and during that time the economy starts to overheat and we have summer and summer we have high inflation, it's real, real demand, over demand and production isn't able. So from 67 to 81 is when we had the peak in interest rates. And we had the highest real inflation coming from demand, right? It was all these baby boomers buying a home, buying vehicles, entering the workforce, they were just buying vehicles, entering the workforce. They were just changing and this was global and naturally there was going to be gas shortages and doom and gloom that we're gonna run out of oil and we're gonna have a billion people starve and as we all know the opposite happened. You know the negative people were wrong. The

third season is when we make the mistake and we start to financialize the economy. And so finance is usually, so the fire industry, finance is usually small compared to the real economy. It's supposed to serve the real economy, which is driving demand. But finance takes a life of its own. Banks weren't even in the investment business when I started. They were small players in mortgages. I mean, now they're huge in ETFs and so forth. Now, the reason why the finance takes over is the deregulation and we can take on more debt. And if you look at technologies, how can we forecast that technology is going to change our world? And it's opposite real estate prices. It's something like this where it gets cheaper and better every year. And as it becomes cheaper, the adoption rates increases, right? It's just very simple math. So if you look at all technology, even oil, oil was very expensive and it got cheaper

and cheaper and cheaper. So it allowed more and more people to consume the product and services. So a growth, a real growth industry is driven by an increase in adoption rate coming from lower and lower, lower prices. This applies to finance. What is the primary business of a bank? Credit. Its product credit fell in price for 40 years. So it allowed them to pyramid and get Canadians, Americans, Europeans to take on more leverage. You're talking about interest rates there when you say the interest rates. Yes. Yeah. Their price of credit, which is interest rates.

So now that cycle is over. price of credit, which is interest rates. So now that cycle is over. And if you notice, not only real estate prices peak, but if you look at the banking index, it hasn't gone any higher since 2021, and it's underperforming the market. So it's given us the sign. Now we're not there. Listen, I preface everything. If I'm still early, but the models will switch. And when I went live two years ago, the models were 50% cash. I could divulge that. So I had to have a vehicle where people get consistent advice.

I can't give advice here, whatever. So you want a model and a lot of financial advisors, individuals to subscribe to it. And the model ever since then still 50% cash. What drives it? Valuations. The market is super expensive, but we're still participating in, uh, gold and the market, uh, and those, those could change.

When I met you guys, I said, Joseph, can you build one? I don't want to be buying hold. Could build one for a Bitcoin. I said, sure. I'll put 5%. And wouldn't you know, I got the bottom of the cycle That was lucky right of that cycle and I've been being cautious since this is people who just want to know where because nothing goes straight up Right nothing goes straight down so I can tell them where where if you're planning to accumulate more Bitcoin where you can in the cycle now

Autumn is a built up of too much debt, a peak in the financialization of the economy, and a focus away from what drives real economic growth. Economic winter, which we have not entered in Canada. You don't think we've entered yet? Okay, okay. No, no, definitely not. And I said, this is a long way perspective, right? Long wave. I know Martin Armstrong cycle, I subscribe to his service, I know the real estate cycle, I know the business cycle. So I follow, I know the fourth turning, I'm fascinated by those. And I incorporate them because I can take bits and pieces. But it's very different from Martin. Martin gets into geopolitical. We do know that there's war as part of it, revolutions, because the old system doesn't work and we're building the new one underneath. And so economic winter is a is a generational shift from the financialization which shrinks dramatically. And then what powers growth is the new technology and as we know

Bit Bitcoin is part of that decentralization and we're seeing even the forces politically with Alberta and Canada and the United States in Europe that we see that there could be a breakup of the countries because that we see that there could be a breakup of the countries because if the centralization doesn't let go of the power and let the provinces or states or countries in Europe, they will break apart. And it's a shift and it's the old trying to hang on to power while the new emerges from strength

and that's technologically driven. Is that simple enough? I think it is. I want to ask you about the point you made there, a good one, about the current system being sort of uprooted by a new system coming underneath it. And it just it doesn't have the roots once that new system builds enough of a base underneath it to hang on and it gets destroyed oftentimes in a sloppy chaotic you know occasionally bloody you know event horizon of 10 years 15 years 20 years whatever it is the thing I'm curious about you know and you mentioned this too that the long wave is as much a social theory as it is an economic theory do you think it's a coincidence that these you know near hundred-year cycles basically coincide with what you can expect in terms of

like the lifespan of an average person? I think about Canada specifically when it comes to the pressures between the provinces, the pressures on Ottawa, and the last cycle Joe, the pressures between boomers and everybody else. You know, the elbows-up crowd, I didn't see a single kid talking about elbows up. And we had, I think, one of the highest turnouts for voter, you know, in terms of voting of the last 15 or 20 years. And it seems like it was not along party lines, not necessarily along racial, ethnic, religious lines.

Maybe you could even say it wasn't even along economic lines. You know, I'm fairly well off, my neighbors are fairly well off, but I'm sure that we voted for different parties at the ballot box based on age. Are these things really the true pressures that people should be looking at when they think about economic cycles? And are they too clever by a half when, you know, like you mentioned, they're too focused on this sort of minutia of day to day and month to month data and data that doesn't

really matter. But it's these broader pressures and these broader cycles that really are impacting economics as opposed to, you know, the monthly fed speak or whatever's going on, you know, in front of the cameras. Yeah, that's a great question. It's always, I think this is just a desperate attempt to hang on to the past, because remember, or if you're not aware, I've always got to assume most people who are listening or watching this are not aware, but really Canada was built from the up wave, we used to call it, which includes spring and summer. And that

up wave was a young Canada, a resource rich Canada, productivity, everything was just working right. So we brought in healthcare and universal healthcare. And of course we can make the promises, but you know, like creative destruction is the hallmark of capitalism. And we destroy the old because it doesn't work anymore. So you know, nobody wants, the public doesn't want to hear that we can't afford the healthcare system because of demographics, we don't have the economic growth, but there's something better coming.

I mean, part of the decentralized Renaissance is the stem cell revolution is going to be so inexpensive within a decade that people won't need health care or sick care, as they call it. So I think it's just a attempt. But the problem I have with the liberal party and Carney is this. This is controversial to some people. I bought into this whole climate change myself and I met brilliant people about 15 years ago and they said Joseph you know this thing's a fraud and I what? What's going on? He said, look, here's a couple of books.

I want you to read it. And then it was just a slap in the face. I said, oh my god, it's so obvious. And I didn't realize it was politically driven. But three climatologists in Canada may be aware of it. It was three Canadians. And I think I've posted on Twitter who really Influenced my thinking and once I read the book and I realized the agenda was I think they know what's coming to an end

but it there's two drivers there's the climate change is being used to Contain hold on to centralization And the second one I would say the subversion By some countries to weaken the West, Canada, the United States and Europe. I think Trump is aware of that. And so I'm, I think there's other people are really good at fighting the battle, but I tell people why I've come to that conclusion. And then when you look at the data and then it became so obvious. I mean, I didn't even think about CO2. I knew I had learned this in school, but it was so obvious. And I was like, Oh, sorry, I just didn't take it serious. I wasn't paying attention. I was

like, CO2 is plant food. It makes sense. How's this pollution? And then I realized the agenda and it all made sense and you can see see and so that's why I believe I think why I know for certain that that's going to be their downfall. And I've always said they're tempting the WAF to control power, whatever it will collapse. There's no way the public is going to vote in poverty. And what did Carney promise the cut in the carbon tax? I mean, I'm here in the States and I'm like, why is it so cheap here to fill up the car? And I come from a country that's resource rich.

It should be a dollar a liter or 50 cents a liter. So it was by the way, not even 10 years ago, right? There was a time. It was, by the way, not even 10 years ago, right? There was a time. It was, it was. And I think the whole thing is that this is going to be the downfall of centralization and economic winter will expose that because people will never vote in and they don't realize that they've been subverted by outside sources to accept a lower quality of life. Part of the theory, the global warming one, I love talking about global warming on this show because YouTube slaps a fat tag on the video.

Like I'm some kind of insane conspiracy theorist. Just all you get, listen, YouTube, all you have to do is take the chart that you think is real and stretch it back another 20 years and take the chart you think is real and look at the COVID gap. Do you know there's an entire section on, I think it's the US Geographic Service website dedicated to why there was no change in CO2 emissions during the COVID shutdown. These guys know that people are looking at this stuff now and have questions and they just don't have the answers.

That's one problem I have, but that aside, the other thing I wonder, and I'm curious about your thoughts on this since we're on the topic. When I think about the climate action and the sort of rah-rah attitude of the climate extremists, one of the things I think about often is, is this a way to coax me into having a lower standard of living because they know a lower standard of living is going to come for most people anyways and there's nothing they can do about it. They have to put a face on it that's not, like you said, you know, an economic crisis or a deleveraging crisis or any of these things

that will spook people. So instead, everyone thinks they're wearing the same jersey. They find a tribe in the CO2 initiative, CO2 reduction initiative, and these countries who, the ones you mentioned especially, on the tip of the spear when it comes to the need to correct, they're in for pain regardless. And so there's an effort to put a face to this pain that's not incompetent governance or economic cycling or any of these things. Do you have an opinion on that?

Well, China's not doing this and it's built in two coal plants a week. They're going through an economic winter. They have actual deflation and they have a collapse in prices and they're still powering ahead with technology and he says, oh, they're going to the rules for China kicks in 10 years. I said, oh, that's interesting. Why is that? Like, why isn't China? Look, I think I've supposed to this. Canada could fall off the map tomorrow and have zero emissions. China make up the difference within a year. So, you know, what is this? Now to the audience, I've said this and you could go to my Twitter account. I said renewable energy is a growth industry bubble in stocks. And as we've had two solar bubbles,

we just had called the peak in that the renewable energy bubble that peaked two years ago, three years ago, and it's collapsed 70 80%. I am not against solar wind. And I mean, and what's interesting, I'm here in Florida, and I pay attention to things like, where's all the solar panels? It is sunny all the time here. and it makes sense that you every roof should have solar panels it doesn't in Calgary it's a different story so at the economics I guess are not there yet and it's the economics that will drive it now solar wind battery technology EVs are becoming cheaper and better here without a doubt. There's so much innovation going on in solar. I think we all prefer if we could power our own homes and cars from our own solar and charge it and not be relying on the government. But that's not anytime near soon.

So let renewable energy be disruptive on its own like all other technology. We didn't have to force the public to switch to a cell phone and give up their home phone. It just became better and cheaper. And that will happen with those technologies. But I need to see in a wealthy country like the US and I need to drive by and see here. And I look at that and I tell my wife, well, where's all the solar power? Oh, the other no different Toronto. So the economics aren't there. And when it is, it should be disruptive. So sure, but this carbon tax was the dumbest thing. I think, I think that it's going to be the

downfall. And I believe one of the solutions, which will come from the decentralized Renaissance will be to cut taxes dramatically on energy and cut the taxes of Canadians. So that's, look at Trump, he's trying to do this. He understands the, because we don't have the fiscal or the interest rate room to stimulate the economy or the global economy. So what do you do? Focus on technology and then focus on

cutting taxes dramatically. Yeah, those are, those two, you know, sort of policy positions will increase productivity here, which is, you know, according to our bank governor, assistant governor, whatever an emergency, I think that's true. You mentioned Canadian wages have been stagnant for the better part of a decade, you know, in terms of GDP per capita, where I think bottom of the OECD, something like that, like truly when you see these charts, we're near the bottom. Countries you've never heard of

where there's nothing but like small rodents and old castles and you know, these guys are outgrowing us, now producing us. Sad state of affairs. And so maybe we can shift here to exactly how we know it's a sad state of affairs here. You know, looking at the economic long wave, one of the indicators that I have been talking

about on this show, although I've not been saying it's a longwave indicator, it is, is this idea of stabilization, attempts at stabilization by government to stop deleveraging, as you mentioned, and I think also to control the flow of capital out of the country. If I look at the two political parties that were at the four over the last election cycle, it was actually the conservatives that had platforms that bothered me more than the liberals in terms of capital controls. One big one was the TFSA expanding to $12,000 in contribution room for people who wanted to buy equities as long as you spent $5,000 of it, almost half, on Canadian equities chosen and stamped as okay by the government. Huge no-no for me. And the second one, and you'll, I'm

sure, have an opinion on this, we're gonna make homes more affordable by cutting the GST on homes. That doesn't make anything more affordable, it just raises the home prices by 13%. And so, you know, I'm curious, what else do you see that tells you Canada is truly in this fall? You know, you said we're not in winter. Are we heading to winter? Like, what are we talking? Am I still wearing shorts once or twice a week or am I getting my winter tires put on? Where are we here? Yeah, you know, you should be preparing for the winter season, right? Looking at probably getting ready to put on your winter tires.

Definitely, because you'll know when you're in economic winter, and it'll be a banking crisis, right? And it's deleveraging. Interesting enough, after this time, I've never seen, but it was in the US, the US real estate cycle peaked in 1925, but their banking crisis really didn't occur until the 1930s. And what caused the collapse? People miss this. It wasn't the stock market collapse. It was thousands of American banks going under and the real estate bubble that caused most of the bank failures.

It's always real estate and it's the leverage. So Joe, did they have a lot of exposure to that real estate market? They must have then, right? So that's interesting. I didn't realize that. They did. They did. I think somebody liked, I forgot they have a lot of exposure to that real estate market? They must have then, right? So that's that's interesting. They did They did. I think I somebody liked I forgot I have a post somebody liked to post and I forgot I made this chart of Foreclosures and you just see it rose from 25

1925 until it peaked in 1933. So you you get banking so banking crisis is to start and and I will say that one of the things people don't know is that That's shocking to me Because I've only been here six weeks, but I I look at everything from a long way I can't believe how many banks there are and it's it's just like The gas stations in Canada, there's so many banks and they're so competitive And but what I found out is there's half as many half are gone. It don't exist. Pre 2007.

So if you look at when they had the US had their crisis, we went like unscathed in Canada. Like it was nothing. It was like a little cut. We took our bandage off and we bailed out the system and we just continue leveraging, which was surprising to all of us. Yet the US had a real estate bear market from 2006 to 2012. And if you bought in 2012, you've done very well. So that cycle now speaking. So but the sign will be the start of it will be and it hasn't happened. Look, I'm you know, my radar is watching the banking stocks and watching the month to month, which I got today, uh, the, the, uh, loan growth. Do we actually see Canadians stop borrowing? And

that hasn't happened, I believe, because we haven't entered a recession. Once the recession hits, sort of be it a recession, bank crisis, and negative for the first time, negative credit growth. And we have none of those. Those are three things you can watch on your own and they'll be a sign. So the financial era is over. Uh, we have just a small hangover and I'm sure a lot of people can tell you there's a lot of horror stories out there, but it hasn't impacted the economy or the banking sector yet.

And that will be the sign because what happens when you get the banking crisis credit shrinks up and we get failures and that Naturally shrinks the economy then fear takes over and then panic takes over and then you hear see a huge supply from the speculators This new group of people probably under 50 who've never experienced a true real estate bear market. And the psychology will change. And at the end, there's other indicators. But in the book that I'm putting together,

which I'm trying to rush to have it ready for the fall, because I want it to be out before economic winter starts in earnest. And when that happens, what to look for and what you could do and so forth and so on. The thing I'm curious about, and as a guy who has a background in financial advising, what do you think the impact is going to be

of guys my age who have never even sniffed a recession, like you said, a true downturn, economic downturn, advising their clients. My understanding and you know, I've had some okay experiences with financial advisors over the years. My stance generally is if a financial advisor will take my call, they're probably not a very good financial advisor. I tell everyone that.

It's always by the dip. It's by the dip. It's when things are going well, it's because of the strategy and when things are not going well, market conditions got the best of us and there's nothing we could do. It's all horseshit, in my opinion, that stuff these guys say. What do you think the outcome and the sort of impact of having 80s born, 90s born advisors is going to be on the market? A lot of people would say that those people are accustomed to stuff like passive flows. They're accustomed to stuff like carrying more debt. They're not afraid to borrow into infinity because they just think everything's going to come back. To me, it sounds like that

will make everything worse. I'm curious what you think. 100%. And that's the problem. You 100%. And that's the problem. You can't trust, I don't listen to very many mortgage experts, but I know one, I think there's one popular guy out there that went through it. And I said, look, I can't tell you who to talk to, but this is one time. I mean, this is what I love what I do because time works in my favor. If I was doing a physical job at my age, it would become more difficult every year. But as long as, and I'm working hard to keep this thing active, I could be doing this and like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, they're a hundred and they're still doing it. And I know a lot of people, you actually trust them more because their experience to bear and roll markets is really important. So the same thing I would say, you

know, find a mortgage broker, real estate broker, financial advisor, I know this is unfair to the young guys, well, work with a guy that's experienced. And that's what I did. I went through my own experience. So I was naturally cautious in terms of naturally cautious in terms of advising people what to do. I didn't I was terrified of of asset bubbles. So and I then went to learn from masters but find somebody who's been through a bear market. And somebody who's been through a bear market. And another thing that worries me, and you made a great point, when I went into a bank and I was curious, because I'm always asking questions, if you went to a bank to buy mutual funds,

they say, oh, those are too risky, we don't sell those things. And now banks are major players. And I've gone with friends to the banks and I'm shaking my head and says, oh my God, when this finally does end, it's going to be bad because I know the cookie cutter models that they have and the cookie cutter advice that they're giving the public is to ride out the bear market.

And that what it tells me, and I've worked with clients to bear market. So I know the psychology, and this is why I also come try to learn to talk to myself, Elliot waves, because it's built on social cycles and fractals. It's a reflective of social mood that it will only exacerbate the panic. And governments think that they exacerbate the panic. And governments think that they can stop the panic. No, if you want, the whole thing is central banks, I thought were supposed to prevent bubbles, not create them.

And that's all they've done. So if you don't want to have economic winter, don't have economic fall. And we have, we set everything up to have a vicious hangover. Now it does not mean you have to go through it right because one of the things why I started this too was wasn't to just warn you was what do you do right and one of the things when I studied last economic winter as I found out the Kennedy, the empire of the Kennedys and the family, came because not what Joseph Kennedy did in the 20s is what he did in 1930s. He saw what was coming

and he tripled his net worth and he became a dynasty. There were billionaires, a million, multimillionaires, I think even a billionaire, and they all were bankrupt in the 1930s. And they were like, oh, the stock market's gonna come back So you can do things. It's a great time to start a business. It's a great time to pick up assets the key is to survive and prosper is Harry Dent says and I agree with that a hundred percent but you know you shake your head and you know when you older, you realize everybody's going through their own journey and they have to make their choices. You can inform the person if they're open to it. Great. If they're not, oh, well.

So I'm trying to help as many people as possible to get through economic winter because once it does arrive, OK, what do we do? And I think this is where the strength of the long wave is that, okay, let's redesign. Because let me give you some hope about Canada. Sure. We have the resources, we have the people, we have the technology, we just don't have the politics driving us in the right direction. Like Japan does not, or never did have the resources. Russia has the resources, but not the, Russia has the resources but not an economy driven to create the wealth. So if you have all those, what's stopping Canada to go to the next level?

And I think they will, but I think it'll be decentralized, is the political system. But that will come from a hard landing. People say demand change, and that change will only come from what's working. And it's the decentralized technology. So we have the potential. Just the politics is just the most political powers are still hanging on to the past. I see Trump trying to change that, and he's aware, he's trying to make radical changes to the US, but it still has to go through its economic winter. Let me, I think he's doing things to make it positive.

I'm not gonna get into the politics of that, but unfortunately, they have the most expensive stock market in history and the most expensive real estate market in history. He can't stop that. But I like what he's doing to cut the WF funding, focus on resources, but don't stop anything. It goes, let the market decide the prices and that's all you can do. Right? I want to ask, I'm going to keep you a little longer than an hour. I know I said it would be an hour, but if you got a couple of minutes.

Yeah, I got time. No problem. Incredible. So there's a couple of questions I want to ask and maybe pull on some of these threads. The specific one that I'm thinking of now is, you know, we, I agree with you actually that we have all the great resources, people, tech here to get this done and the politics is what's holding us back. I want to know if you think there's a gap like a prank or like maybe that gap but a difference pragmatically between people and politics because one of the things I've kind of lost hope on, I'll be frank with

you, is that as long as it's one vote per person in this country, per adult, you know, the politics are just never going to change and it's not necessarily the politicians. The politicians are, you know, given this bouquet of flowers in terms of the electorate and the electorate tells them what to do and as things get more and more difficult for more and more people thanks to the economic fall and winter, they're going to keep voting for preservation and support and expansion of debt, expansion of leverage, affordability measures, things like that,

that are gonna make it worse and worse and worse. I don't know how you fix that because I think that people need to either give their heads a shake, not likely, or we have to do something about the structure of democracy, also not likely. And by the way, neither particularly palatable for a citizen to hear from a potential leader of their nation. So how do you fix that? What is the plan for that? Do you think about that at all? Like, I'm not sure if the model has something to say about that, but the more I see people in destitution, the less I see people willing to

accept any pain. Yeah. Well, the thing is that the politicians are column, let's say ambitious politicians. I've stolen that from Bob Hoy. I love that. Ambitious politicians thinks that they can direct. All they can do is destroy. And they are the tail end. Remember politics is the last cycle to affect change. They're not creating the change. So people are going along because the financial media was still inflating. So everything appeared okay. But as soon as that changes, that was a force change.

So economic winter forces the change. Because governments are coming to a point with the sovereign debt crisis in the future, the bond market is gonna say,, sorry, how are you going to pay back things? You don't have the economic growth. I think I posted that chart on GDP. You don't have the economic growth to pay for all this. Oh, sorry, we want 8% on our bond yields. What does that do to real estate? What does it do to government spending? Both are retract. So what's done well in the 40 years in the fire sector and government? And rise in interest rates will then contract those two. So that's part of decentralization. It's the rise in interest rates that Will cause the contraction

um in the economy and in the government say This is uh, the business cycle and if you look at that chart,. This is the business cycle. And if you look at that chart, this is a current business cycle. You can see it's slowing, slowing, slowing. And I'm saying this year, it looks like it's going to finally contract. It maybe has contracted, but look at the T-bill market that leads the Bank of Canada. Everybody thinks the Bank of Canada has control. They try to alter that, but ultimately it's the market that

drives interest. Yeah, this is a new, you know, not new, but it's been floating around in the financial for a long time in the States, particularly that the two-year leads the Fed rate. I don't know what it is in Canada. What is the duration that leads our rate here? Three months. I post it regularly. I mean, everybody's asking me and I said said I've got a 100% track record and forecast and interest rates because I learned this again from the Masters all I did And I think I've said this repeatedly I didn't discover the the the the cycle I learned that from Contraita than Sean Peter Then from the forum there were so many brilliant minds so many books I bought and it was oh, here's another book on the Contraita cycle and I read that and then as I got better I said okay they're

good at the technology but they're not good at the market and then I found this gentleman called Martin Pring who has written all the master books on technology, he had this business cycle theory mastering the market and it's like they had a section a long way but I I was like, are you kidding me? I go, maybe I can make one for Canada. And I loved it. And so I've built a summation of the, all the best minds. And I acknowledge those people from Martin Pring to Conjurata to Champartier to Carlito Perez, who's really good at neo-Champartier. Right. And I disagree with her totally about this climate stuff. We have a disagreement.

She follows me and I follow her. But I take the best minds, Ray Dalio, and I enter Martin Armstrong. I take all these brilliant minds, put all the things to the model. And with AI, it just allows me to simulate that. And I check everything and make the forecast. So when you look at everything, you realize

it's a social cycle and change will come until you hit economic winter. It's actually necessary as in death as in the four seasons. It's a natural cycle. So that's why the Canadian economy continues to slow until we finally get to deed leveraging. So what's the solution to debt is more debt. It's kind of laughable. No the solution is to write down the debt, but nobody wants that to happen. I think part of the solution is when the collapse comes is not to put people on the street, but write down their debt to the level of when they bought the home So if they put 10% down

Now, of course the banks lose and all this but I'm sure I was trying to not cause a revolution, right? So if they're a million home evaporates to 300,000 and they had 10% equity give them 10% equity but give them a proportionally 90% leverage at 300,000 which whatever Whatever that is right. So near something. Yeah. Yeah, but 270 so their new leverage would be 270 and they're dead So it's not that they didn't pay a price But I'm trying to keep the economy going and you just can't say well let the market decide.

Well you do that, you know, you could have, you know, millions of homes and that would completely collapse prices. So I think that's part of the solution and if their solution is just bailing out the banks, which I think they will, which we learned is a mistake because now they caused another bubble in US and we never thought that was gonna happen. No, and you don't bail out to public, but you bail out to banks and people are surprised at the backlash. There was almost a revolution, right?

In a way, it's still amazing to me that they didn't get further in terms of the political traction. You know, like still to this day, you hear people talking about the GFC and how there was really no consequences. A few suits for a few years, you know, like still to this day, you hear people talking about the GFC and how there was really no consequences. A few, a few suits for a few years and you know, behind bars and that's about it. And people lost their livelihoods there. They were totally

wiped out. And you know, the, the banks, there's movies about it, man. Like how, like how many times can people tolerate this? But it just seems like they're so downtrodden. And now this diet of information people have where everything comes at them 10 seconds at a time while they're taking a shit or whatever they're doing for news. There's too much for people to remember and there's also too much for people to look into what's happening to them now. One of the things we talk about on this show a lot, and I'm sure you agree, is that it's not that people don't know

something is changing around them. It's that their focus is so acutely on what's in front of them at any given moment. Schools are teaching their kids all kinds of backwards nonsense. They can't afford to put food on the table at the same clip they could before. Their job is not secure.

Their parents are not well. They can't find doctors. They can't afford a home. Their mortgage rates are not down where they want them to be. All these things. And so when, when they're trying to articulate what the problem is, they're pointing to whatever the last suit said on TV. And what are they saying now? It's the, it's Trump. Trump is causing us all this pain. Before it was the grocery stores are price gouging us. Before that it was COVID is causing disruptions. The Russian invasion is causing supply chain. It's all horse shit. It's horse shit. And it's frustrating to me as a millennial, mid-age millennial, I guess, for me to watch people who I really respected, guys older than me, guys I worked with,

people I grew up around just not understand it. They see the problem, they can't articulate it, and instead they look for the easy out and the easy scapegoat. Oh no, did Joe freeze? Maybe he froze, I don't know. That was a good monologue. Can you guys still hear me? I don't know where Joe went. We're going to find out where he went. But it's interesting talking about all these things, because the long wave really is an interesting theory of everything. And as a theory of everything, you

have a hard time being able to pin down exactly what's going on minute to minute, year to year, month to month. But it's hard to disagree with the stuff Joe says. I'm going to send him a quick message here. It's hard to disagree with the stuff Joe says. You know, I want to ask him before we drop, the criticisms of the longwave theory and specifically the way that he presents it. If you guys haven't listened to his spaces with Rampart, Joe Rampart, you should. They do it on Twitter. They stream alongside us on Monday nights and they go a lot longer than us.

So we finish around 8.30, they finish around 10 generally. And one of the criticisms that he gets a lot is, you know, what's the difference between being wrong and being earlier, mistiming the theory. And, you know, Joe is admitting as much in our conversation that, you know, sometimes it's hard to pin down the exact timeframe, but directionally, he's been nothing but correct. And I want to know what he thinks about some of these criticisms because I don't think they're fair. And as Bitcoiners, I mean, you guys know years ago we were calling for 100k Bitcoin and calling for ETFs and calling for all these different things. And, you know, everyone laughed at us then, but we saw the

writing on the wall. We saw the debt problem. We saw the printing. We saw the lack of ability for governments to control spending. And what did we end up with? We ended up with $110,000 Bitcoin, whatever it's at right now. So there's something to be said about understanding the direction of things, even if you are off by a little bit. Because especially at our age, like you guys know that I'm in my 30s. You guys are probably, if I look at the demo of the show, everyone who listens is basically 20 to 45. You have time. And you know, the opportunity cost of not holding something like Bitcoin or one of these other assets that appreciates over time and grows over time, even if you're wrong about exactly when that next monster move up is coming,

that next monster realization for people is coming, you're still going to do well. up is coming, that next monster realization for people is coming, you're still going to do well. And you know, if you look at Joe's theory, Joe's long wave theory, well, it's actually Kendra Tia's long wave theory, but you get the idea. Timing is important, but it is not everything. So Joe, you know, you dropped for a second there. I just gave a brief, a brief outline of, you know, I want to know your thoughts on the criticisms you've received. You know, you, like I said, the beginning of the show, you take a lot of shit on that rampart space. And I think for us in Bitcoin, we've taken a lot of the same shit. You know, we said years ago, we were going to see six figure Bitcoin.

We said years ago that government spending was going to continue to rise. Interest was going to continue to rise. Financialization was going to continue to rise and drive the price of this thing up. What do you have to say to people who dismiss, you know, maybe your interpretation of long wave and long wave and kitchen's theory and all these things in general, because the quote unquote timing is not perfect, you know, that you give a message for these people. Yeah, yeah, I actually did a whole episode. So let me make it clear. a whole episode. So let me make it clear. Condreative never, it says in his original stuff, you can read it, never said it's an exact cycle. It averages 55, 60 years. Why is this longer?

One simple reason, up until 71, we were always on type sub type of gold standard And it it it limited the ability of government central banks or the banks itself to expand credit So this has gone on longer we've recognized we've said this i've said this repeatedly that uh, I mean even the real estate people were early for 10 years because it went on for another decade. But the thing is, we know that there's a seasons and how do I know that it exists? Because I'm the worst critic myself.

I'm always looking at where am I wrong? Where am I wrong? And what confirms it is a long-term secular decline in slowing of the GDP. And the more indebted we become, the slower the economic growth. So more debt is not solving it. So when I thought real estate peaked in 2017,

and then I said, okay, and then they had the final one in 2020, when I joined Twitter and I said, I was gonna go live with it because I was just working in the background with friends. But the first time I went live and I planned to launch at the top because I wanted people to have a vehicle to help them. I said, okay, how far can they extend real estate? And it became obvious it was 2022 or 2024, simply because of demographics. And the blow off came from the interest rates in history,

5,000 years to be exact. And that was the final, and we've never leveraged from the zero amount. Now, let's say that again, there's no precedent regarding leverage from zero. Now, when I went through the 90s, what saved me from bankruptcy, and I couldn't go bankrupt because I was in the financial industry, was interest rates collapse, so our cash flow. And we had to absorb the losses. So not only

that we had to refinance the mortgage, but we had to, our condo fell by 50% when we sold it. We just, we had to get rid of the pain. And the reason why we sold just to stop the pain. And we were just both starting our new careers at the time. So it no longer, and I said, and now everybody said, oh, they can keep extending it. Well, how? And how do you extend beyond 2025, 24, 25?

And I said, this is coming to an end. And the only answer and which to working on is war. And that's part of the long wave. But the problem is, now we're starting to see that it is impacting the economy. So that it's gone on two years, five years to 10 years does not disprove the theory. I will say, I hope I'm wrong because I know the economic devastation that's coming. But I'm saying we are so close because worst of the downturns occur when three cycles turn down together. The long wave has been in the down wave since 81, and it just had to build up the debt. So that we finally have had the real estate cycle peak. Remember the worst is, as Sean Peter said,

is the worst of the downturns when you get a business cycle, a cousin cycle, which is an 18-year cycle, and the long wave turning down in unison. And they're now all turning down in unison into 2027 to 2029. So we're going to see the worst of the economy in about two or three years without a doubt. And being right about this is not, it's only personal satisfaction was, I was so ignorant in 89 and I'm so aware today, and I wanted not to keep this information, thank you,

I wanted to keep this information public and open to as many people as possible so they can benefit from the up wave and the change that's coming. So I get it, it's okay and people will criticize. But all I know is my followers are increasing on Substack and professionals, because Joseph, you might be wrong, but follow the model. It is to protect your capital and to do what to do. And it and it hasn't changed since I've been active. So I was cautious. And one more thing, I was cautious for two years. And when we had this big correction, we were fine. It didn't impact

our portfolios. But I said, I've got to wait it out. And I got some people say, Joseph, you know, should we be going short? I said, no, wait. And the markets bounced right back up. Right? So I said, this is experience that I have regarding what to actually do with the money. Because if you're wrong in finance, you need to admit to it and say, okay, so I've never said it doesn't exist anymore. I said, No, it's just prolonged it by more debt and debt to solve. Japan tried 100 year mortgages and it didn't work. Japan tried

everything. And we're going to attempt everything and it won't work. So it's okay. When it's funny, right? Do I want to be jumping out and down when millions of Canadians are hurting? Of course not, right? I want to say, hey, maybe we should pay attention to the social cycle. And so what can we learn from it? I'm gonna have a lot of great news for those people, for those new followers. And by the way, I've gone through this personally in 89 in business managing

money in 2000 2008. My business always did the worst a year before the top because I was risk averse. And during the downturn, and I want to tell a story because it's important you understand why I'm going to tell you. And during the downturn, I did fabulous well. My practice tripled, quadrupled. I did so well, everybody said, hey, this guy knew about it and he preserved our wealth. You should go talk to him. Well, when the first downturn happened,

because I was devastated a decade ago, I went to a conference. There was other advisors. They said, man, business is really tough. This market. This was like 2000, 2002. I said, yeah, but I saw it all. I'm doing extremely well. Boy, that was dumb. And everybody was jealous and envious. I said, ooh. So when 2008 came, 2009, I was like, yeah, really bad. And I'm, you know, doing extremely well, right? So I get it, you know,

it comes with the territory and people are envious and I said, that's fine. Then the most important thing is my client base is increasing and I was expanding. I just left because I became disgusted about the corruption in the financial industry and I didn't want to be blamed for it, and I had no outlet for my clients. I said, help more people this way, and so I finally decided I had to go through life issues in 2020 to get into it, and then officially launch the other stuff. It's to help as many people as possible,

because it's like helping somebody go through death. It's inevitable. And there are some people that are helping people. But I can actually be the person helping them through. And that's the great news, right? The potential is there. We just need the system to collapse to start that. Because without a financial reset or collapse, you can't start spring.

So that's fine. And it comes with the territory and it doesn't bother me at all. That's good. I'm glad to hear that because I want you to keep doing what you're doing. Last question on a lighthearted note, you said something at the beginning of the show that I had to sort of refrain from laughing at. Bitcoiners are so familiar with having like the most boring, annoying, probably conversations with our wives about Bitcoin. How was it having a conversation with your wife about why she needs to deleverage?

Was that fun? Did you do that over dinner? Did you do that over the course of a few weeks? How was that? People on audio who were listening, Joe's shaking his head. No, she actually how we met and then she heard about, hey, this guy does podcasts. So she said it is the spaces that I did that convinced her. And yeah, there was another aspect which I'm not going to get into.

That how do I get her to to do that? And it wasn't easy, but she's wise enough to see. And after the sale and I said, well, look well look at the price and I just wanted so they're not interested right and then And I've got to admit it's not their their favorite subject So even where we moved she said we're gonna buy here I said no and I said so the only thing I had to do quickly is I show her the data I said look at the data I said, so the only thing I had to do quickly is I show her the data. I said, look at the data. I go, it's already peaked.

OK. Does it make sense to rent? So it's a fair question. Anybody is going to be asking, right? So no, it's not easy. I don't think she's interested. She's curious. She's actually watching today, tonight.

She said she's going to watch it. And that's how it is. I know it's not a popular subject because, you know, women and their their their home and have their own place, you know, even though financially, the guys that make sense if it drops 50%, but they're renting, they just don't like the idea. And I know it's hard, I know those struggles. And I can sympathize with couples because they wanna start a family, they wanna have their own home,

they wanna have the experience. I grew up with that, right? I grew up in, my parents bought their first home, I was five years old and I have great fond memories of the first house and the second house. So I get that. It's not easy. Not easy. It is funny though. So maybe your second book you can write on that. It's funny. There's people saying they agree with you. Joe, I got to tell you, you know,

normally these interviews, there's a bunch of like, you know, half-wit comments rolling in from my chat. There's a couple hundred people watching on all platforms here, Twitter, YouTube, Twitch, all these different places rumble. Hardly any comments. People are tuned in, they're locked in, listening to the stuff you have to say. So I want to thank you for a very informative and very entertaining hour and change. I put your links in the show notes as always, but tell people where they can find out more about what you're doing, the long wave, the floor's all yours.

Yeah, thanks. Thanks for the opportunity. And I appreciate that. I said, I've just learned something. I've been given a gift. I love this. I want to share and help as many people as possible. So if they want to follow me,

I'll be much more active and hopefully in a couple of weeks. So it's kind of a relaunch. And for the financial advisors, people are looking for direction regarding the markets. I have a Substack account. And you can see all the links from the website, theeconomiclongwave.com. And there's a Substack account.

You can subscribe there. And there is the model, right? The model is updated. So basically, what to do with the portfolio. It's there. A lot of financial advisors, private investors, and just people that are curious, subscribe to it. That's the place to go.

If you want to be informed so you can understand it, and AI's helped me simplify it. And Twitter, I try to, with the new revamp on the website, it will be information that we look at. Because I'm always looking at it from the long wave, right? A bigger picture, what's the impact versus just scary headlines and home prices dropped another $200,000 today. I try to explain why it's happening and it was predictive than most people thought.

So, yeah. So that's where they could find me. I look forward to speaking with you again. Everyone thanks for listening. Thanks for watching and we'll talk to you soon. Yeah Joe and I want to say one last thing.