The Canadian Bitcoiners Podcast - Bitcoin News With a Canadian Spin - The Macro Tourist Kevin Muir Finally Talks Bitcoin (And He's NOT Holding Back)

Episode Date: February 13, 2026

"The Macro Tourist" Kevin Muir sits down with The Canadian Bitcoiners Podcast for a wide-ranging conversation you don't want to miss.Kevin Muir is the mind behind The Macro Tourist newsl...etter and co-host of The Market Huddle Podcast. In this episode, we sat down with Kevin to break down everything from macro markets and Dollar, Trump's policy positions and AI, plus of course Bitcoin and MSTR. 🔥 In this episode:- Where Kevin sees market weakness- Why the current macro environment is unlike anything we've seen before- Why it's time to IGNORE AI- Bitcoin and MSTR- What the market is getting wrong about Trump———📰 Subscribe to Kevin's newsletter, The Macro Tourist:https://themacrotourist.com/🎙️ Check out The Market Huddle Podcast:https://markethuddle.com/———🇨🇦 THE CANADIAN BITCOINERS PODCASTNew episodes weekly. Conversations with the sharpest minds in Bitcoin, macro, and finance — from a Canadian lens.🔔 Subscribe & hit the bell so you never miss an episode!👍 If you enjoyed this conversation, smash the like button — it helps the algorithm show this to more people.💬 Drop a comment below — what was your biggest takeaway from Kevin?———📲 Follow us:@CanadianBTCPod on XCanadianBitcoiners.com———⚠️ Disclaimer: This podcast is for entertainment and educational purposes only. Nothing discussed should be considered financial advice. Always do your own research.#Bitcoin #MacroTourist #KevinMuir #CanadianBitcoiners #BTC #Macro #Finance #Podcast #Crypto

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Friends and enemies. Welcome back. This week on the show, Kevin Muir, the macro tourist, co-host of the Mark Hedl podcast, and longtime investor, trader. What a history he's got. If you're not familiar with him, I suggest you'd look into it a bit. He's been on the show before, and we became fast friends over the weekend, last weekend, I should say, at Mike Campbell's World Outlook Financial Conference held in Vancouver at the West End Bayshore Hotel
Starting point is 00:00:26 where Kevin and I were both keynote speakers. My 35 or 40 minutes on stage, a lot different from his, obviously, because this weekend followed, this weekend and the interview you're about to hear, followed a big price drop in Bitcoin, which was then followed by a very somber MSTR earnings call. So you can imagine during this interview we talked about both those things. We have some opinions we shared, some where we differ from each other. But the conversation was great. We talked about the Trump economic policies, the change of. of the changing in the balance of power in the global economy coming from some of the Trump economic policies and the people in his cabinet. We talked about AI, CAPEX, investing in America
Starting point is 00:01:12 versus Canada, and much, much more in this half hour. Kemp was very generous for this time, and I want to thank him one more time for that and wish him well in his endeavors, both on the podcast side and on the investing side. This podcast, of course, as with all the other stuff on the channel, brought to you by the Big Three, Easy DNS. the best place for you to port a website, buy a website, start a business. Mark is your friendly neighborhood registrar. We'll help you with whatever you need. Make sure you're secure with domain sure and easy mail.
Starting point is 00:01:42 And of course, if you're a CBP listener, you get 50% off your first round of buys if you use the code CBP media. So get your business off the ground on the cheap. Can't beat that. Definitely go over and check out easydns.com today. Bold Bitcoin is a second sponsor. Francis and the team of Bull Bitcoin have been Leninize. exchange of choice for years. They should be yours as well. Non-custodial, extremely private by default, built-in wallet, built-in liquid network options. Plus, of course, edge case expertise that I like to
Starting point is 00:02:13 tell people when I speak to them. If you're moving, selling your house, changing jurisdictions, you want to involve Bitcoin in that transaction somehow. These guys will be able to help you. Can't beat that. So go over, use the code CVP when you sign up and you get 25% off all your fees or life. Can't beat that. That's going to add up. Twan over a 256 heat is our third sponsor. 256heat.com will help you heat your garage, your airplane hanger, your barn, your home gym, your basement, whatever with a Bitcoin miner. Tuan's hash heaters will take care of the heat and as a convenient, tidy buyproduct also give you a drip of KYC free Bitcoin. It's an incredible product. I don't know anyone who's tried it and doesn't love it. I have one
Starting point is 00:02:57 running right now. Only eight feet away from me. You can't even hear it. So go over to 256heat.com and tell Twan that we sent you here at Canadian Bikorners podcast and get a little bit of the discount. And of course, enjoy the show with Kevin Muir on the Canadian Bikwinners podcast. I'm sitting with my friend Kevin Muir. He's, uh, I mean, we're talking at the same conference. I know it's pretty exciting. I'm right after you. I think they saved the best for last. Who's last? Martin. Well, no, you and I and then, that was the end, then Martin. Martin, it's exciting for me to talk at the same conference as you. Because you, I mean, we were talking before we started here.
Starting point is 00:03:32 You actually have real work, clients, okay? Neither of which I have, no clients on my side. I got here this morning and went to the gym for an hour and looked at the pool, looked at the women in the pool, went to my room and dicked around with my presentation. But you actually have a history in investing. You're like the main, when I talk to people about the list, the guest list. You're one of the guys people talk about. Come on.
Starting point is 00:03:56 For sure. Me? Yeah. Anti-Bitcoin guy? You, Thorn, and Armstrong are the guys out here. Oh, okay. So I'll tell you that Jim Thorne is opening tonight. You don't know who he is.
Starting point is 00:04:07 I only met him for the first time yesterday, but his plan, since I'll release this in like two weeks, probably after this conference is done. He's planning on telling people tonight to sell gold and silver and buy Bitcoin. Really? Opportunity of a lifetime. That's what he's going to say. Oh, no wonder you guys got along so well. Famously. famously for a lot of different reasons but that's the only one I'll share everything
Starting point is 00:04:27 all stays in the back of the Yukon what are you talking about today you're talking with Mike oh well so but you're tomorrow I should say what are you talking about tomorrow just kind of the market in general yeah terms of like the and the dangers to me that are that exist in this market I think it's way more unstable than folks think really oh 100% I think that the people are way too complacent about risk assets especially in America I think that there's a lot of things happening below the surface that are actually really worrisome. Like in terms of, like if you go look at the first start of the 2026, the quants actually had one of the most difficult starts that they've had forever.
Starting point is 00:05:09 Oh, yeah. Absolutely brutal. They were just getting crushed. Small caps were ripping. All the things that they were long were actually going down. The small caps are what they're short. All sorts of different factor volatility. Factors are basically different. elements that people invest in and you see that when things get, in this day and age, there's a lot of pot shops that do a lot of long short stuff. So when things get spicy now and markets get unstable, instead of them just going down, you actually see parts of them rip higher and then parts of them rip lower. And it's because that they're actually much more market neutral. And so some of the most kind of violent moves are actually within the market. And so you might look at it and go, oh, not much happened in the market, but you don't realize that the quants got absolutely crushed, which is what happened at the beginning of this year. And one of the worrisome things about that is that when people are set up the wrong way and things are moving against them, it creates an element of instability. And I'm actually very worried about it. And, you know, over the last few months, I've had a bunch of really smart, wise, old traders that I've known.
Starting point is 00:06:21 Like I'm old as dirt, but these guys were often even just older. Okay. And they came up to me and they were kind of just independently saying like, you know, this, something doesn't feel right. I'm scared for the first time in a long time. And these aren't the kind of guys that are going to get on and, you know, do like the doom at 11, sell, sell, sell, sell, the world's ending. These are guys that have been around, have managed money for a long time.
Starting point is 00:06:45 And they're just looking at it. And I'm pretty sure what's occurring is that some things are happening. kind of like that they're noticing those things under the surface that I talked about. Other little things like gold and silver going nuts. And they're seen all these. And I kind of, my belief is that they're processing it in kind of internally. So they can't really say like I think it's going to go down because of this. But what they can say is like I've seen this sort of volatility.
Starting point is 00:07:13 I've seen this instortive instability before. And what it's showing is that we're getting closer to the end of this move as opposed to the beginning. The other thing that I'm worried about is that everyone is so bullish. Like, it is just like, no, honestly, I have a buddy that went to the goal, I shouldn't say what, went to a cell-side macro conference in London or Hong Kong or somewhere like that. And he came back and he, like, reported on me. He's like, everyone was just like all in long. They're talking about Trump's going to run the economy hot, how, you know,
Starting point is 00:07:46 the one big, beautiful bill, stimulus is coming. all these things, and they're just everyone is completely and utterly convinced that this economy is just going to rip. And when you go look at things like the Bank of America has this kind of the gold standard of surveys, and they do this monthly survey to institutional investors, and you go and you see it and they have like a history of 25 years, the cash levels of portfolio managers, meaning how much like cash they have to buy new assets. Yeah, is the lowest it's ever been, like ever. Like, I was like, what? And like, they do things like ask them, like, how much are you hedging for, like,
Starting point is 00:08:28 buying insurance for your portfolio at the lows? What is your risk, you know, exposure? That's at its highs apart from one period in 2022 in the midst of the mania. It was a little bit higher. But so what I look at is I see this situation where everyone is all bulled up. And then what really scares me more than anything is the fact that the market is actually going sideways. Yeah. Right?
Starting point is 00:08:52 Like, people don't realize this. Sorry, I shouldn't say people don't realize this. But a lot of people overlook the fact that the NASDAQ topped on October 29th of 2025. And for the last three, four months, has gone sideways. Yeah. Right. And so one of the things is you think about kind of markets. And there's this famous Bruce Kovner, who's one of the market wizards.
Starting point is 00:09:13 He has this line. And he says, what I'm really looking for is a consensus that the market is not confirming. So to me, what is the consensus? The consensus is that you have to own tech stocks. You have to own AI. The stock market's going to keep going up. Meanwhile, what is the stock market doing? It's going sideways.
Starting point is 00:09:31 And in fact, there's sectors of it, like the software that have gotten absolutely just hammered. Right? Like since that top in October of 29, the IGV, which is the software, ETF is down like 29%. Wow. Wow. And the SMH is up like six or seven. So it really, so this again goes back to my thing that there's some things happening underneath the hood that are very worrisome. You've been on this for a while. You had this call last year. I don't know when last year, maybe the middle of last year on your show, Market Huddle, which people who listen to my show should listen to, that gold was going to have this like bat-shit $1,000 week. Yeah. You hit it.
Starting point is 00:10:14 I don't, you know what, I think technically, it was close enough. Save this for Serazna, you hit it. Pat, I listened to that, I wasn't happy about it. That's a hit, okay? That's very kind of you to say. Okay, so, doesn't that tell you though that your intuition, the intuition of some of your friends, is not necessarily just an animal instinct.
Starting point is 00:10:34 There's signs here that something is wrong. You mentioned the market going sideways, in October was the top. I know this because in Bitcoin, we've been doing nothing but bleeding since that top. You know, we're high beta cues in a lot of ways. Hate to admit it, but this is the way that we trade, at least for the time being. The problem I've seen is that amidst all this talk about running the economy hot,
Starting point is 00:10:56 all this talk about AI CAPX, all this is the next phase of Trump's big, big plan, the big beautiful bill, whatever, it's good news, good news, good news, good news, no move. There's almost no sure sign that you're about to experience a drop than a barrage of good news with no positive price action to speak of. Yeah, you're summing up the Bruce Kovner line. Yeah. That is exactly what he's looking for. You know, a consensus, a market consensus that price is not confirming.
Starting point is 00:11:25 What should, like, what should we be looking at then? Because it's easy to say, well, think about the geopolitics right now. Think about the energy implications of some of these invasions, blockades. Think about the way that the Trump had been. was no wars in Trump won, and now every war looks good to this guy. And Trump too, right? Every war is looking at him like a pack of Dumos looks at you after your third domestic the beer, you know what I'm saying?
Starting point is 00:11:51 Like every war looks good to this guy. And suddenly the instability that he told everyone he was going to put an end to has become a feature of the presidency. Now I will admit that one of my favorite things about Trump is that he tells you when he thinks the market's going to run. Tweeted this morning, biggest bull market of all time, starting today. Like you can't this is unprecedented, but it's great. I missed it is that what happened this morning? Something like that because I think the Dow is that like 30,000 or something do I have that right or some industrial
Starting point is 00:12:19 50. Whatever it is. I don't know what the number is. Like it's just some bat shit again like this guy doesn't care about ethics doesn't care about decorum and ideally what would be happening is Kevin Muir would be looking at these tweets and going nice like okay I'll park some money in xyz sector xyz et f xyz stock I'll play this a certain way. But as you mentioned, It's not working. The stuff is not working. It's working over the shore run. Yeah. So, you know, thinking about the next, like, six months or 12 months,
Starting point is 00:12:47 since we are at the World Outlook Conference, let's talk about Outlook. I don't think a lot of people know where to put their money. Amazon, well, just to put some framing around it. Amazon dropped significantly after their earnings call last week, big CAPEX overspend. Everyone seems to think that they have to have a seat at the AI table because if they're not in pole position, they're fit to lose, and that's about it. But there's been no, no. benefit to this on the bottom line anywhere. I can make a number of, you know,
Starting point is 00:13:14 pictures of Kevin Muir with a horse body and a Kevin mirror head. I can make them anytime I want middle of the night, but that's about it, you know, like what are we getting from all this? Where should people be looking thinking? What are you thinking the six, 12 months? Like give me some indication that I'm not the only person thinking that this is all kind of weird in terms of expectations and outcomes. So in terms of the AI, just stop thinking about it. Okay. Like the reality is Thinking about it. No, but like from an investing point of view,
Starting point is 00:13:43 stop thinking about it. The reality is that the more technology is transformational, the more sure it's gonna be a bubble. Right? Because by its very nature, you know, if a technology is that transformational, then there's gonna be a rush of money going into it. Okay. So, like I think Jeremy Grantham had this line that I thought was interesting.
Starting point is 00:14:07 He said, everyone thinks that bubbles are, are crappy assets that are massively overhyped. He says bubbles are actually magnificent assets that are massively overhyped. And so what that means is that, yes, the fact that AI, like if you start telling me AI is gonna change the world and that's why I'm invested, I'm like, the more you believe AI is gonna change the world,
Starting point is 00:14:31 the more you shouldn't be invested because chances are it's overpriced. Yeah, because it's a bubble. Okay. So I just, I, I am such a skeptic about the prices of these assets that for AI that I just think that if you can trade them from the short side, but in terms of the long side, just stop trading them. And one of the things that you, I think, that's getting, not getting enough attention is that, you know, kind of one of my gets a, it's a craw on my cap or whatever, whatever the line is. I'm missing that up.
Starting point is 00:15:07 But anyways, that you see these guys on TV and, you know, this Bloomberg guy, Eric Boutunas. Yeah, the ETF guy. He's kind of like, I kind of really made me mad. So he'll be like, all you guys that are panicking selling America because of Liberation Day, you guys are learning the hard way that America is never going to lose and that you're losing. And then he would, you know, he actually used Canadians. He brought up the fact that the Canadian pension plan was buying some U.S. stocks, right? And then he goes, look, they made so much money on the stocks, okay?
Starting point is 00:15:45 But what he failed to realize and just kind of gets overlooked is that the Canadian stocks were up even more. Yeah. Right? And when you look at 2025 and, yes, the U.S. stock market, the S&P was up 17% or whatever it was, the world stock markets were up way more. XUS. Yeah. Oh yeah. And like, so if you do like Canada, Canada is up like, I don't know what the number was, it's 25 or 28. And then when you turn it into U.S. dollars, it's even worse, meaning better for the, the, the holders of those assets. So I think that Canada was up 35%. So we almost doubled like the return of versus the U.S. And another thing is then when you go and you'll look and you'll see like Japan's up huge, China's up huge. The MSCI World Index X, US, actually had a much greater return.
Starting point is 00:16:41 So that's like all of the stocks in the world except the US ones, had a much higher returns. And then interestingly enough, when you go and you turn it into like a risk-adjusted return, like you... Your short ratio? Yeah, yeah. You look at it and it's like way better. It's like three times better. So you were like three times better buying non-U.S. stocks than you were like versus the U.S. stocks. And so back to my point about like, just, you know, you go find easier trades.
Starting point is 00:17:08 So when you say, like, what should you be buying? I'm like, I'm not sure. But one of the things I know you shouldn't be buying is the U.S. stock market at 23 times next 12 months earnings. Yeah. In an economy with a leader that is basically threatening NATO members. And then the part that really cracks me up is the fact that this is a country that is running the largest current account. deficit in the world. They are the ones that need the capital from everyone else. That's right. The most and we can sit here and we can debate you know Trump's trying
Starting point is 00:17:42 to reduce the trade deficit and he's trying to get the the current account deficit and we can argue whether he's going to be successful in those but the thing is if he's successful it means most likely lower stocks. Yeah yeah and then their currency is another thing like we have this situation where even though the US dollar fell a lot last year, it still is one of the most massively overvalued currencies out there. And it's stronger than his policy positions will allow for it to be as well, which is another problem. He needs a weaker dollar. He does need a weaker dollar. And so he sits there and he tries to talk, he tries to say, we're the reserve currency, but then we also want a reserve
Starting point is 00:18:19 dollar. And listen, it's a tough decision. It's a tough problem. Because the reality is that if the dollar starts going down too far, that current account is a deficit, it's going to scare a lot of people, care assets side of the US and it's actually going to cause, you know, a sell-off. And one of the things that I kind of think about in terms of one of the developments at 2025 that, that I think not enough people are really appreciating is the fact that for the first time in many decades, we had a situation in Labor Day, or not Labor Day, Liberation Day, that we had the US dollar, the US stock market and the US bond market all go down together. Really? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:18:57 Oh. So correlations went to, you know. you know, all together. Go on, yeah. And so usually what you find in the old days, like, you know, Ray Dalio became the richest hedge fund manager in the world doing this thing called risk priority where he bought US, he bought stocks and he bought bonds. And the reason that you wanted to do those two assets and those two current trades were
Starting point is 00:19:17 that if in times of risk off, your bonds would do better and then actually, you know, would provide a hedge because it was negatively correlated in risk off times. And then in good times, you know, the stocks would go up. up and then also it helped that you had this situation where the bond market was also in like a 20, 30 year bull market. So this has been, you know, this correlation change is huge. And one of the things as well is that the US dollar versus stocks, if you think about it from like a European pension plan manager's point of view.
Starting point is 00:19:52 If you're sitting there, you're trying to decide whether you're going to buy Navidion by, you know, Amazon and Apple, right? if you go and buy those stocks and then we get a risk off event. In the past, what happened was those risk off events, the US dollar went up. The reason the US dollar went up was because it was a flight to safety. It was also because credit was being destroyed and they got paid back in US dollars. And so one of the things is that you would actually go and you'd see these European pension plan managers and they'd say, I can own more US stocks because of the negative correlation to the dollar.
Starting point is 00:20:28 Right. So that was a feature and that was part of the reason that they could go out and buy more US stocks. Well, what happened with, you know, Liberation Day was that they actually got hurt both sides. So the stocks went down and then not only that, the currency that they were denominated went down. So back to like, you know, when you're thinking about where to invest, I'm just like, this has just started. This realization, the U.S. assets are not where you want to be. this is just starting to, you know, permeate through people's minds, and people are still way overweight.
Starting point is 00:21:01 Like, I go talk to all my, you know, broker buddies, and they'll tell me that, you know, they get clients that walk in with their portfolios. It's like, you know, like a 75-year-old grandma that's stuff full of, like, MAG7, you know, and she's, like, wondering
Starting point is 00:21:17 what she should do, and, like, that is the most, you know, and it's work. That's the real problem. That is the problem. Is that we've been sitting here counseling, that, you know, this is very dangerous and that it's kind of a scary situation, but it's continued to work. But back to your point
Starting point is 00:21:33 about how markets are no longer doing what everyone thinks they should do, and that's actually a big sign. And one of my points about the fact that the U.S. was actually the worst performing stock market in 2025, these things are slow, and these things take a while for people to realize. And it's just slowly catching on.
Starting point is 00:21:51 And so where I think we are is kind of like people are waking up to this. And back to my thing about the old guys that are kind of noticing things are wrong, I remember when we had the first situation with Bear Stearns, when they had those two hedge funds go bankrupt. And it was kind of out of the blue and it was kind of this weird thing. And you're like, wait, what's going on here? Like, how did you lose so much money? To me, that's like what we're seeing with AI and the PE, the private equity, the private credit. There's all sorts of warning signs that this is a disaster. And I, and I think,
Starting point is 00:22:25 I think it's just like either, you know, look at for opportunities on the short side or just get out, which is what most people should be doing. They should be, or at the very least, just reducing it because the thing that most people are owned the most of is the most dangerous right now. I agree with you there. We'll get you out here on this question since this is a Bitcoin show, at least in name only. Sailor. He did his earnings call of all the days yesterday, a 25% dump in the Bitcoin price. That would happen? Kevin.
Starting point is 00:22:56 But did he cause it? He didn't cause it, but he had to give his earnings call on, I mean, he does it on Twitter. He does it do like a, where he fills the seats with sympathizers and Twitter, you know, Twitter personalities like Bitcoin for his Q&A. So he takes Q&A from people who like him, which. Oh, you mean this is 25% down on the corridor, the Bitcoin? Okay, I understand what you're saying. His stock was down 25% yesterday, too.
Starting point is 00:23:21 Sailor is in trouble, I think. and I'm going to talk about this during my talk tomorrow, how I think Sailor is bad for Bitcoin overall, for a number of different reasons. You made a crazy call on gold. You got it right. Let's see if you can go two for two. It's February 6th or whatever day it is.
Starting point is 00:23:36 By the end of this year, does micro-strategy sell even a single Satoshi from its treasury? Okay. So I agree with you that Sailor is actually in the long run bad for PayPal. For sure he is. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, well, he is for sure.
Starting point is 00:23:56 There's no doubt because the structure that he's created is bad for Bitcoin. Maybe that's a guarantee. That's a guarantee. Yeah. So one of the things that I am pretty confident of is that the structure in itself is ridiculous. Like why you people were paying a premium to own, you know, Mr. Why am I being included in this? You people.
Starting point is 00:24:18 No, no, sorry. I didn't say you. Did I say you people? I'm sorry. Why people, okay, I'm sorry, I apologize. Why people were paying, because you obviously sound like you're very negative on sailors. So like I suspect we're actually on the same boat. The why people were paying a premium to own this thing.
Starting point is 00:24:37 It's ridiculous. And people will say, well, it's because of the leverage. And I go, okay, it's not like you can't get leverage other places. It's because and ultimately I think it was because there were people, there was investors, and I think that they were mainly institutional. to start with that couldn't own Bitcoin. That's right. And they used this as a backdoor entrance into Bitcoin and then it fed upon itself and it became a premium that just kind of, and this whole thing about the Bitcoin yield and all of the things. I'm glad to hear this has made it into traditional
Starting point is 00:25:09 finance circles by the way. So glad to hear that. And so there's like there's this guy. I love just pulling up his his comments. Because he, he's not. made them like a year ago when Mr. was on his highs and it was trading a 200% premium to NAF. And like, I wasn't sure about the price of Bitcoin, but I was just like, this makes no sense over the long run. The Mr. should trade it at 200%. And this guy, you know, made this very obnoxious comment. And he said something to the effect that only 0.01% of Wall Street can even begin to understand this trade. And I was like, like, this is the kind of stuff that just goes, like, and you know, and you, You can have your opinion about Bitcoin.
Starting point is 00:25:55 Yeah. But to say only 0% 1% can understand this trade, it's just ridiculous. But the Twitter nym, he gets it. Who's that? The Twitter nym is like what you call an anonymous Twitter account. Like he's a Twitter name. He gets it. But Kevin Muir, there's no chance.
Starting point is 00:26:10 You just don't, you'll never understand. I won't understand. But just to say that like, and to me it was just like so obnoxious. And like it's like the market gods we're going to punish that guy. Because one of the things I would never do is to, to go and say like, I know this is going to happen. Right? Even like gold, I said, I think that there's a chance
Starting point is 00:26:28 so we could have a $1,000 up move in a week. And it was always something I'd put out there and I thought that the market was underappreciating that possibility. It wasn't like I said, I knew what was gonna happen. I thought that the market was underappreciating. And that's the thing about markets. Like, you're never gonna know something absolutely for sure.
Starting point is 00:26:44 So whenever someone tells you they know something for sure, you should just ignore them. Like, you really should. And if someone tells you that only 0.1% can understand this, you should definitely not, you know, turn them off. Okay, back to Saylor. I think that the, the history of these sorts of products is that they go to premiums.
Starting point is 00:27:06 Yeah. And then eventually they go to discounts. Yeah. And so remember Grayscale Trust or whatever. Do I remember? Yes, sir. So it was at a huge premium. And then eventually it went to a discount.
Starting point is 00:27:16 Yeah. And people were buying it with the hope of turning it into an ETF or a collapse. And there's a famous guy, Bose Weinstein, I think is his name, and he's Saba Capital. Okay. And he goes around buying closed-end funds that are trading at discounts to NAV,
Starting point is 00:27:33 and then basically, you know, either owning enough of them that he can change the rules of the actual closed-end fund or encouraging the management to buy back stock or whatever. So one of the things that I am confident of, I'm not confident, I think that there's a good chance good chance of occurring, it's going to go to a discount. For sure.
Starting point is 00:27:53 And there's going to be pressure on them. And eventually what I think will happen is it'll go to a discount. And then there'll be all sorts of wise guy, you know, hedge fund guys that are going to be buying that and shorting Bitcoin. And trying to get them to narrow it back the other way. Yeah. So that's all I'm, it's all I'm confident of. Whether they'll actually get them to sell, I don't know, because I haven't gone
Starting point is 00:28:15 and looked at the documents. You really what you need to look at is the indentures of those. convertible bonds and see how much they can be forced to sell things. I don't know. But eventually what could occur is that although I was going to say people could buy the stock and then change the, you know, get on the board. But if I recall, I believe he has super voting shares, right? He does. Like, so he really does control it, right? He's not officially the CEO anymore. And yeah, he has super He has super rights on his shares, not to mention that his board, in my opinion, is loyalist to him. For sure, but what might happen is eventually it goes to enough of a discount.
Starting point is 00:28:59 People start picking away at it, like the hedge fund kind of sharks. Okay. And they're buying it and it's selling, you know, because that's what happened with the grade scale. Like eventually there was like a couple of hedge funds that owned like, you know, 40% of the issue and kept pushing for it to be changed, right? And if you think about it in terms of whoever the manager of Grayscale was, it was actually not in their best long-term interest to wind that thing down. No. Like that was why they didn't want to do it because they earned their fees. And so they would rather stay as a close.
Starting point is 00:29:32 They drank their fee for a long time. Yeah. But so I think that that's the kind of the playbook you should use for Sailor. He said yesterday on his call that his capital raise number is $8,000 Bitcoin. He says, if Bitcoin gets to $8,000, he has to raise to pay that dividend. And I don't know if that's true or not. I haven't dug into it. His data, you know, I know a couple of guys with terminals.
Starting point is 00:29:58 You're among the terminal elite as well. And so my understanding is that there's some... Terminal snob? Yeah. My understanding is that there's some discussion about this within the Keypecker community. And I have not seen much about it on Twitter because most of the Bitcoin community loves this guy. And they love him, not because they agree with the strategy.
Starting point is 00:30:16 no pun intended, not because they think he's, you know, a real agile guy to have in front of a camera. He is neither of those things. But because if he gets whacked, it's going to cause a huge decline in the price of the underlying asset. Yeah. And that's going to be problematic for us. I can't remember my gut, like my kind of like old, like I looked at the bonds at one point. I'm pretty sure he structured them so that he doesn't have to sell for a long time. Yeah, yeah.
Starting point is 00:30:41 So I think that that 8,000, my suspicion is that 8,000. is today's price that it would have to go to. Okay. That before he'd have to raise money to like raise like issue stock to pay for it. But I eventually those bonds are going to come due and then things change, right? Like that's so I think that that's today's price. Yeah. But I suspect as those bonds and there's a series of them.
Starting point is 00:31:06 First dates Q4 this year, I think. Okay. And so I'm not sure and maybe figures out a way like some of those bonds I thought there was, there was a way for him to deliver Bitcoin against it. No? There was it was all cash. It's that Bitcoin yield. No one who owns any of that press stack, like even like the common stock for sure. But I think most people who buy the prefs in Bitcoin, especially the Robin Hood crowd,
Starting point is 00:31:31 think that this BTC yield thing means that in the event of liquidation, they're entitled. They have some claim on the coin. They don't. Okay. They don't. Okay. So no. There is no issuance.
Starting point is 00:31:40 There's no distribution. The idea of the Bitcoin yield to cracks me up. It's ridiculous. It's ridiculous. Okay. Let's get out of here. Do you want to say anything else to people before we go? No, I just, you know what?
Starting point is 00:31:47 I really enjoyed this. You are a terrific host. Thanks. And I'm sorry about what I said about Dundas before. He called it a farming town. So take that with you. Kev, thanks, buddy. Thanks, man.
Starting point is 00:31:57 Much appreciated it.

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.