The Canadian Investor - 2026 Bold Predictions: Will Canadian Stocks Beat U.S. Stocks Again?

Episode Date: January 1, 2026

It’s our annual Bold Predictions episode. We score our 2025 calls (BCE’s dividend cut, the CAD move, and the SHOP vs. RY market-cap battle), then lay out measurable 2026 predictions: mega-cap AI names potentially facing capex fatigue, an “anti-AI” basket of incumbents looking set for mean reversion, a possible management reset at CNI with buybacks paused to prioritize debt reduction, and Dan’s call for the TSX to beat the S&P 500 and Nasdaq again. We close with Braden’s spiciest take: despite incredible momentum, Palantir’s valuation leaves it vulnerable to a sharp drawdown in 2026. Tickers of stocks discussed: BCE.TO, SHOP.TO, RY.TO, NVDA, GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN, META, ORCL, INTC, AIQ, CSU.TO, DSG.TO, TRI, ADBE, CRM, ACN, QXO, CNR.TO, CP.TO, UNP, CSX, WSP.TO, PLTR, DKNG, FLUT, HOOD, COIN, CME Our New Youtube Channel! Check out our portfolio by going to Jointci.com Our Website Canadian Investor Podcast Network Twitter: @cdn_investing Simon’s twitter: @Fiat_Iceberg Braden’s twitter: @BradoCapital Dan’s Twitter: @stocktrades_ca Want to learn more about Real Estate Investing? Check out the Canadian Real Estate Investor Podcast! Apple Podcast - The Canadian Real Estate Investor  Spotify - The Canadian Real Estate Investor  Web player - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Asset Allocation ETFs | BMO Global Asset Management Sign up for Fiscal.ai for free to get easy access to global stock coverage and powerful AI investing tools. Register for EQ Bank, the seamless digital banking experience with better rates and no nonsense.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Having cash on hand is essential for any business. Traditional business accounts hit you with high fees while paying little to no interest on the cash you need for day-to-day operations. That was our experience too, until we switched to the new EQ Bank business account. Now, every dollar earns high interest with no monthly fees and no minimum balance. You also get free everyday transactions like EFTs, bill payments, mobile check deposits, and 50 outgoing and 100 incoming free interrachee transfers. And to sign up, quick and fully online, no branch visits because, let's be honest,

no business owner has time for that. We use it for our own business, and it's the first account that actually helps our money work harder while keeping operations simple. Check it out today at eCubank.ca slash business. Investing is simple, but don't confuse that. with thinking it's easy. A stock is not just a ticker. At the end of the day, you have to remember that it's a business.

Just my reminder to people who own cyclicals. Don't be surprised when there's a cycle. If there's uncertainty in the markets, there's going to be some great opportunities for investors. This has to be one of the biggest quarters I've seen from this company in quite some time. The Canadian investor, Welcome into my favorite show of the year, the bold predictions episode, where the three of us, tell, look into our crystal ball and tell you what's going to happen next year. And we have 100% success rate, never ask for our track record.

That's what this crystal ball entails. Simo, Dan, are you guys feeling bold today? I think so, yeah. What about you, Dan? I mean, I was last year and we'll go over that in a bit, but it wasn't too bold. But yeah, it should, this is, I love this episode. It's pretty fun. Yeah, it's always fun because, you know, there's always, of course, we've got to make it bold. We got to think outside the box and see if any of them hit.

And some of them have through the year. Some like really surprising ones have hit as well to even like called out specific companies will get acquired and stuff like that. But there's always a lot of truth and ideas to the big themes you're trying to. to craft around the next year. So I think it's actually a pretty helpful thought exercise, even if it is extreme and the right details might not always be there. But the big themes and the big ideas for 2026, I think are important. But before we get into 2026 is let's keep score at home for 2025. Simone, you had two, which were Bitcoin to hit 200K. Yeah, that was a fail.

And Bell Canada to cut its dividend by at least two thirds. How did we do? Well, Bitcoin, I mean, I think pretty clear if you've listened to the year in review, you know it did not hit 200K, hit a high of 126 in USDA, of course, back in early October. So still a pretty good year if you stopped the year in October. But unfortunately, it's about flat for the year as we're recording this on 22nd. And BC did cut its dividend. I think that was pretty obvious.

We'd been pretty vocal, Dan and I, for a better part of a year, last year, even that it would be necessary just because their dividend just was not sustainable. The interest payment just kept climbing. So I think most people who paid attention could have predicted that, but by at least two-thirds, it was the bold prediction. Unfortunately, they cut it by 56%, so not 66. Pretty close, but that's the whole point of a bold prediction is making it bold. And the dividend cut alone was not that bold. So with both the both things not being present, then it was a miss for me. Hey, you get some marks on the bell can.

Yeah, it's not pretty close. At least it was 50% more than 50. With Bitcoin, didn't you say it had to go down a certain amount too? There was something else in there. It had to have a big drawdown. Yeah. It's possible. And then hit 200K.

Yeah. Yeah. But anyways, let's just say, yeah, I didn't hit 200, so it's a fail either way. Yeah. Dan, you had that the CAD, the currency will hit multi-decades low. You've been specified sub-65 cents on the US dollar. And that Shopify will pass RBC as the largest Canadian listed company and stay there, being the bold part given the RBC curse.

How did we do? strike out on both I mean the Canadian dollar one was looking pretty good up until Liberation Day and then the Canadian dollar kind of spiked I think we got as low as 67 cents

I think it was it was getting down there and then Liberation Day I think the US dollar kind of weakened a bit against the Canadian and it went back up to 72 cents Shopify I mean I think it passed RBC twice on the year but just I mean it can just never hold it

it seems like Shopify would have a great quarter and then the banks would come out with a great quarter and RBC would kind of overtake it. It's kind of a back and forth battle, but I mean, this one, I guess, could still come true. Actually, no, because it would have to stay there and we're too close to the end of the year for that to ever happen. But, yeah, nothing seems to want to overtake Royal. Yeah, I'm pulling up there, marquee cap side by side here. I will quickly share my screen for those at home on join tcI.com.

And, wow, neck and neck. They are here, 236 and 222. I believe this is in U.S.D. Yeah, that's U.S. Market Cap. Shopify did strongly take the lead and then you see did its thing. But now, you know, it's making a charge. You passed it before.

And they are, you know, kind of neck and neck. What's 10 billion in market cap between friends with large caps these days? Yeah. And I guess for anybody who doesn't know, like there's a long history of whatever stock in Canada goes over, the Royal Bank tends to get wrecked for the next while. I think there was Blackberry. What else was there? Valiant, pharmaceuticals, yeah.

Suncor for a bit, I think. I can't remember any of the other ones. Well, Shopify back in what would it be 2021, and then Shopify fell by like 70 plus percent. But yeah, it's a longstanding curse. Nor tell. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Enkana.

I think Enkana, they're now, what do they call them, Oventive? But I think Enkana got up there as well. Yeah. Like a track record, if not just like, oh, RBC goes back on top, but like these companies actually crashing in pretty miserably. Shopify has been one of the only ones that hasn't like cratered after. A lot of the other ones crater, because I think Suncor would have been back in, you know, post-financial crisis when oil was booming. And then obviously it dumped after oil dumped. But yeah, a lot of them, I mean, Blackberry and Canada, they're all, you know, nowhere near where they were back then.

so mine were investing platforms and asset managers and wealth advisors continue to bet big on private assets this one a little bit hard to judge it's very thematic but there have been major brokerages across us Canada globally that are now off all offering private funds private credit from the likes of Apollo and Blackstone and BlackRock turning them into ETFs has now hit the mainstream in terms of product offerings, as well as a KKR posted that 87% of U.S. listed is now have Everde Green vehicles to offer their clients, their channel clients, private assets. And you've also seen the tokenization and access to some of these larger publicly, sorry, privately traded venture-backed companies hit the mainstream.

A bit hard to chalk this one up. I don't really know. I'm curious if you guys, what you guys think. I mean, Brookfield buying the rest of Oak Tree would be another one. I would probably call this a win. I would say this is probably correct. Yeah, it's just hard to quantify. It is.

Yeah. I should have. All right, new rule. We have to have some sort of thing that we can. Yeah, an actual number. I mean, I would say this is close to correct. yeah like Black Rock going heavy in the space like Brookfield as well yeah I mean you see even well simple like private credit private equity yeah that was probably before 2025 though like they

had that in 2024 I think so yes trade launches that they're bringing private assets to to the masses at some point but they lowered the threshold I know that like you used to I think you used to have to have a hundred grand maybe and now you you need less so I mean maybe that's it's always reassuring when you get Wall Street oh yeah opening stuff stuff to retail investor. Well, and if you think about it, what did they, I think in 2022, like Brookfield mentioned that Oak Tree will probably never sell and then today they sold, or sorry, this year they sold.

So I wonder if that gives you an indication of the private markets right now, but yeah. Yeah. And then my second one is on the degenerate economy theme that there would be this constant vagusification and crazy gambling of everything in the world. I said specifically that Draft Kings Flutter, Robin Hood, Coin, and CME would massively outperform the NASDAQ. Now, this is a weird one because five of the six didn't do well and actually underperformed. Many of them underperformed. Some of them were in line with the market.

So, but two in line with the market, three underperformed. But Robin Hood didn't just beat the market. the stock is up 231% year to date, that is bonkers. So more than 3.3 times your money in the year 2025, Robin Hood is leaning into my prediction of gambling degenerate economy prediction markets bet on anything, polymarket, calci world that we live in today. Yeah, I mean, they're kind of the digital investment casino. You know, I guess you could say if you looked at their revenue base,

it's like all from crypto and options revenue. I mean, not a lot of it is like equity. You should see their NFL Sunday prediction market, people betting on like the binary outcomes of games. Like Robin Hood? Yeah. I didn't even know they had that. I didn't even know they had that either.

Huge, huge volume. Yep. Yeah, I mean, they're doing well. I mean, we kind of see in lad like what happens to a company like Robin Hood, you know, say in 2022. I mean, you saw all that spec. speculative trading commissions and fees kind of the floor came out but yeah yeah they've done well like I'm not going to download fan duel but I already have Robinhood and you open up the

betting thing you're watching you're watching bills Bill's Patriots and you're like yeah sure maybe I throw some money down on this you know yeah it's I mean sports betting and just betting in general has just gotten out of control I mean even you watch a hockey game and like during the intermissions they have the money lines posted on the commercials and stuff like that. It's pretty crazy, but people love it. I recently had to travel to Calgary for some medical treatments, and I wanted it to feel like a home away from home while I was recovering. I found an apartment on Airbnb that made all the difference. While I was on demand, it helped that I could cook some homemade meal in a real

kitchen and just sit in a comfortable living room or rest in bed. Having a space that actually felt like home helped me focus on my recovery rather than the stress of the trip. It really got me thinking about our own place. That host had provided me with some much-needed comfort when I really needed it, and maybe our home could do the same for someone else. Hosting our home on Airbnb would-led guests experience our neighborhood while giving us a little extra money to put toward a fun trip when I'm back on my feet. Plus, it's flexible, we decide exactly when it makes sense to host our home. Your home might be worth more than you think.

Find out how much at Airbnb.ca slash host. Calling all DIY, do-it-yourself for investors, Blossom is an essential app for you. It has been blowing up with now more than 50,000 Canadians plus and growing who are using the app. Every time I go on there, I am shocked. The engagement is amazing. This is a really vibrant community that they're building.

And people share their portfolios, their trades, their investment ideas in real time. And it's all built on the concept of transparency because brokerage accounts are linked. And then once you link your brokerage account, you can get in-depth portfolio insights, track your dividends. And there's other stuff like learning duolingo style education lessons that are completely free. You can search up Blossom social in the app store and join the community today. I'm on there. I encourage you go on there and follow me, search me up. Some of the YouTubers and influencers and podcasters that you might know,

I bet you they're already on there. People are just on there talking, sharing their investment ideas, and using the analytics tools. So go ahead, blossom social in the app store, and I'll see you there. Onwards to 2026, let's do this order of Simon, Simone, Dan, Braden, Simon, Dan, Braden, take us away. Okay, well, my first one here is Nvidia, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle,

well, all finished a year down, but Intel will surprise and have some gains. So I feel like this is probably as bold as it gets. It's going to be, you know, obviously, you know, I think it's just based on the markets being pretty concerned on the amount of CAPEX. We've talked about that these businesses are spending and really the corresponding return on those investments

that they'll see forward. And the more of them that issue debt, and we've seen some of them issue debt, even though they have substantial amounts of free cash. Maybe with the exception of Oracle right now, we've seen them to update the credit markets even more. And at some point, my premise here is that the markets will start charging them more for that debt because they will not see the kind of returns on that debt. So that's my premise here. And that's going to affect the overall returns for next. And of course, you're going at a high level of valuation. And I think for the most part of the markets are kind of pricing a lot of these names to perfection.

So if there's anything that is short or shy of perfection, I think it's going to fag those returns. And meanwhile, Intel is just really, the valuation is not, nothing compared to all of these names I just mentioned. So it's much more palatable in terms of valuations. it's trading at a couple-time sales compared to multiple-time sales for most of these names there and I think it's going to happen on the back of some of their new fabs

especially the ones the Fab 52 in Arizona the fact that it's ramping up production of its Intel 18-8 chips and they get more clients to adopt that technology they already have some of the hypers interest in that tech

so we'll have to see but the fact too that the US government has a 10% state I think they'll have vested interest to make sure that Intel does pretty well. So I think all of that combined together, I think Intel will eke out a small to medium gain while the six other names, I'm thinking Nvidia, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle will have down years in 2026.

That's it. That is extremely bold. I will. It is, yeah. No one can tell you that it's not extremely bold. I try it. Right, yeah. It's not always easy, but try to make it measurable, too. Yeah, I mean, I won't comment on this one because my bold prediction.

It flows well with this one. It was actually my second one, but I'll move it to the first just because it kind of coincides with this. You want me to go out there? Do you have any more comments, Brad? All I'll say is both of your predictions and Simone's prediction. You know, it's funny because it's super bold, but it's almost like a chain reaction. Like, if one of those happens, they might actually all three happen. Yeah, I think so. That's kind of like I did plan it that way. I think if one of mine comes true, I think you almost have to have both of them come true.

I mean, it's not necessarily a guarantee, but... There's a strong correlation. Strong correlation, yeah. So my first one would be the pretty much the anti-AI portfolio will outperform. I used a like kind of a broad-based AI ETF, which would be AIQ. It just covers probably 100 AI stocks. It's not something like SOX, which would be like a semiconductor based ETF. It's kind of, it's all encompassing.

You know, and I think we even started to see this during the end of the year with Oracle. I mean, I think we're just probably going to hit some level of KPEX fatigue here. I mean, a lot of people are starting to worry about the spending. And I don't necessarily think that AI stocks will perform badly. I just think we see some resurgence from, you know, kind of anti-AI stocks. stocks in 2026. And what I mean by anti-AI is kind of, you know, the software companies that instead of, you know, benefiting from the news in regards to AI, they think the business bundle is going to be

materially impacted. So to actually track this, I'll take a portfolio, I'll make an equal weight portfolio of six names. So I'll go three Canadian consolation, Descartes, and Thompson Reuters. And then on the U.S. side, I'll go Adobe, Salesforce, and Accenture. And I mean, it's it's just a bit of a bet on mean reversion and valuation compression. I mean, when we look to AIQ, it has 90 holdings, as I mentioned, all AI stocks. And those holdings have an average P&E multiple of 40x and all of them, an average price to sales multiple of 9.5x.

And I mean, I think the market is starting to get spooked here in terms of spending and, you know, the concentration of dollars. I mean, we looked at Oracle again. I can't even remember what they said there. the portion of those RPO's that are kind of tied to open AI. I think it's like 60 some percent of them are tied to pretty much the success of open AI. I don't know if they disclose the amount, but open AI is definitely responsible for a large portion. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, there's a lot of potential upside if those RPO's kind of come to fruition, you know, especially if the hyperscaler start to see positive returns from

AI spending and a lot of these software companies start to see returns from AI spend. But, I mean, when you look at companies like Adobe Thompson Reuters Constellation, they don't really need to spend a fortune, you know, on large scale, on certain bets about the future. I mean, we looked at Thompson Reuters. I mean, just up to top my head, they're a company that a lot of people think is going to be impacted by AI because a lot of people subscribe to Roiders, Thompson Reuters for their big three. Like we're talking about law accounting where they have a bunch of access to proprietary data. but the thing is like a lot of these LLMs are trained on public data like Thompson Reuters owns that data so I think they're actually going to be able to take that and kind of turn it into a tailwind in regards to probably increasing the efficiency of you know

the presentation of that data because I don't think a lot of you know lawyers and accountants are going to be looking to cut costs and go sign up for some $100 a month LLM that's going to give them case study and like accounting law and stuff like that I just don't see it so So, yeah, I mean, if we can look to companies like Constellation, who are, you know, they're kind of long on the productivity side of AI without having to be long on the, I mean, what is Oracle spending like 50 billion plus a year, like, you know, on the creation of it. And yeah, I just think they'll kind of have a rebound year in 2026. For remaining performance obligations, RPAs, just for context, Oracle's is ballooned to nearly like $600 billion. About two thirds of it is Open AI. Microsoft's about $400 billion, about one-third of that is Open AI. Amazon's $200 billion and around 20% roughly. These are roughly directly correct percentage-wise Open AI.

And Google is about $100 billion with no exposure to open AI. Yeah, if you think about what did Open AI generate last year in revenue, it was like $12 or $14 billion. Like the hyperscalers, there's a much higher chance that, you know, those come to fruition because they generate a ton. but I think the concentration there like what do we I think oh sorry Oracle is down what like aren't they down 20% from when they actually increased that they reported that backlog increase I think they're well below the price right before they announced that I mean I just think the market doesn't like the debt and they don't like to spend and I think it's kind of going to drag into 2026 yeah stock's down 35% since yeah yeah dude I like this like anti-AI I don't know if

those would be the sixth that I'd pick, but I definitely think there's some sort of mean reversion to the Adobe Salesforce definitely come to mind. I think that those two names in particular are like the poster boys for like people are going to vibe code these things away or like the models are just going to create the capabilities of Adobe Creative Cloud. And don't get me wrong, I think these things are in the crosshairs, but these are very, very complicated deployments when it comes to full scale. configurations of Salesforce, for example, or the network effect of like an asset that they have like Slack. Are people really going to vibe code their own internal communication tool and save

the $6 a month per user? I just don't see a lot of the appetite for these types of internal investments, although there will be some people make some of this stuff with AI. I do like this, that anti-bet. What you're going to see is them be ridiculous share cannibal. over the next two years. I'm pretty sure Adobe already is, aren't they? They're buying back a ton of shares. I don't know about Constellation, though. I don't know if they'll buy back any.

Not Constellation, but like Adobe, Salesforce, you will see them, their shares outstanding is about to look like AutoZone or Copart. That's what that chart's going to look like soon. Yeah, I wouldn't doubt it. I mean, they're cheap. Like, Adobe would arguably be probably the cheapest out of all of them, but I would actually say that Adobe probably has the highest

likelihood of probably impact from AI. I mean, even we're kind of seeing it, you know, and we use Premiere Pro to edit a lot of our videos. I mean, there's a lot of other platforms out there that can do what Premier Pro does for cheaper. We're just too stubborn to swap. I think on like the enterprise level, they're doing our right, but on like the, you know, lower end like, you know, guys like me who are, you know, probably see that value and

switching to something cheaper. It's a bit of an issue. But yeah, I mean, I'm expecting them to do decently well in 2026. I mean, this entire basket I would expect to, but I think it is pretty bold because, I mean, this AI run could definitely continue on for a lot longer. Adobe's basically spending $2.5 billion

or more as much as $3.5 billion in the Q2 ending quarter on repurchasing of shares. That's crazy. That's per quarter, by the way. They're kind of like, I mean, PayPal's doing that too, I think they're buying back a ton of shares. Yeah. The question is, are there,

they cheap or are they a dope or are they eBay? Yeah, yeah. That's the question. Yeah, I mean, buybacks are only good if your share price goes up. I mean, if you buy back that many shares over the long term in the market never rewards you. I mean, it's kind of a waste of money, really. You only know in hindsight. That's the issue. Exactly. Yeah. Yeah. Okay, I will kick us off with the last one of our first bold predictions. So, all right, how about you guys, you guys tell me, do you want do you want me to ruffle feathers early or save it or do you want me something a little bit more optimistic first what do we think listen to your heart braider yeah okay okay i'll i'll throw the grenade and duck later uh let's let's start with brad jacobs first and then you'll you'll see

the reason why i'm going to have to duck out after my last bold prediction brad jacobs has at it again. He's now 100% dedicated to his latest venture QXO, ticker QXO. For those who don't know Brad Jacobs, he's probably one of the most prolific guys in M&A, maybe one of the most prolific people in publicly traded companies ever. He's completed about 500 transactions lifetime across all his businesses. He has eight companies and six of them are public, including some of the men's you might know. XPO logistics, the big trucking company, GXO logistics, RXO, which GXO and RXO spun out of XPO.

That would be probably about a $40 billion company if it wasn't for spinouts. United Rentals, which is an absolute beast of a business. United Waste, which became waste management in 1989. And now QXO, okay, QXO. The man has literally written a book titled How to Make a Few Billion Dollars, which is an absolutely diabolical name for a book. And he just wrote the sequel for how to make a few more billion dollars. So QXO, if you subscribe to Joint CCI.com, you'll notice that it's been on my watch list

for the last four or five months because I'm waiting for, I've been kind of waiting for this. Like, is Brad going to go full in on this? he's obviously the chairman of XPO, GXO, and RXO. He just announced six days ago that he is stepping down from the chairman rules and is 100% dedicated to being the leader of his new venture QXO. So there's a lot of three-letter acronyms, but stick with me here. QXO is now the one he is now working on. Quote, we will grow QXO into a 50 billion revenue leader.

through accretive acquisitions and organic growth. So now what is he doing again with building products? They bought a company called Beacon, they're a leading company in roofing in the U.S. We're only now through one quarter of Beacon reporting publicly through KXO, but Beacon was publicly traded prior so you can kind of see their financials. But it's doing roughly kind of $2 billion in revenue per quarter. That's the scale of the business.

So it's significant. My bold prediction is that in 2026, they've got $3 billion in cash on the balance sheet today through stock issuance and loading this balance sheet up, levering up like Brad always has done. I am boldly predicting that he deploys in calendar year completed acquisitions, not says they're going to do this, of an additional over $10 billion in capital of acquisitions next year into building products companies. So that would just really launch them into number eight of his ridiculous track record. And can you doubt the guy at this point?

No, like you just know he's going to do it and you know it's going to work. So it just feels like money is just ready to be to be made here. Yeah, I actually, you know what? I mean, funny enough, I actually, this is hilarious, but I actually didn't know who he was. and when I googled him, I got the Olympic curler. And it was like, the AI. Brad Jacobs, the Canadian curler, comes up first if you're in Canada. Yeah, yeah, that is so Canadian.

You look at like this guy and then you look up anything and it comes up with curling. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, I mean, and if you're in the U.S., it comes up with this billionaire. Oh, guaranteed, it won't come up with a curler. Yeah, that's 100% Canadian. you know Brad's done he's been doing some podcasts lately too in the last year or two of course because as soon as he starts doing the book he's on the book tour thing and he is one of the most

energetic he hosts these these meetings he calls them the electric meeting and he has a whole guide on how to have an electric meeting and how to make a billion dollars but his energy is like off the charts like there's very few people that like radiate his level of enthusiasm excitement about what he's doing and you know he's nearly 70 years old and he's just just full of energy you know like it's it's crazy you should you should definitely listen to one of his podcast if you haven't already but i'll be shocked if he doesn't just make this work again i recently had to travel to calgary for some medical treatments and i wanted it to feel like a home away from home while I was recovering. I found an apartment on Airbnb that made all the

difference. While I was on demand, it helped that I could cook some homemade meal in a real kitchen and just sit in a comfortable living room or rest in bed. Having a space that actually felt like home helped me focus on my recovery rather than the stress of the trip. It really got me thinking about our own place. That host had provided me with some much-needed comfort when I really needed it. and maybe our home could do the same for someone else. Hosting our home on Airbnb would let guests experience our neighborhood while giving us a little extra money to put toward a fun trip when I'm back on my feet. Plus, it's flexible, we decide exactly when it makes sense to host our home.

Your home might be worth more than you think. Find out how much at Airbnb.ca.com slash host. calling all DIY do-it-yourself investors blossom is an essential app for you it has been blowing up with now more than 50,000 Canadians plus and growing who are using the app every time I go on there I am shocked the engagement is amazing this is a really vibrant community that they're building and people share their portfolios their trades or investment ideas in real time And it's all built on the concept of transparency because brokerage accounts are linked. And then once you link your brokerage account, you can get in-depth portfolio insights,

track your dividends. And there's other stuff like learning duolingo style education lessons that are completely free. You can search up Blossom social in the app store and join the community today. I'm on there. I encourage you go on there and follow me, search me up. Some of the YouTubers and influencers and podcasters that you might know, I bet you they're already on there. People are just on there talking,

sharing their investment ideas and using the analytics tools. So go ahead, blossom social in the app store and I'll see you there. Okay, yeah, I don't have too much chat. I guess I'll go with my second one here. So for me, I guess on the more bearish side for a company, so massive changes at Canadian National Rail,

so we alluded that in a year review a little bit, but it's going to have to be two things that go right once again because it is a bold prediction. First one, they announce a new CEO in 2026. And the second one is the new CEO announces that they are stopping buybacks altogether to focus on debt reduction. And if you've been following for the podcast for a while,

you know I've been pretty critical of this management team. I mean, for context, Tracy Robinson has been CEO for almost four years now. She took the helm in February of 2022. That came after a failed attempt at acquiring Kansas City Southern, which eventually ended up in the CP family and facing pressure from shareholders to provide better performance and returns. And since 2022, CNR has been a buyback machine,

not for the best reasons, which I'll go over, but the share count is down 11% since the end of 2021. The problem is they consistently spend more on share buybacks, plus dividend than they had in free cash flow. And since 2021, their debt has gone from $13 billion to $21.5 billion. During that same period of time, they spent 600 million and then, well, they spent from, they went from spending $600 million on interest payments to $900 million a year. And to make things worse, most of these buybacks were at a level when the stock was well

above $150 and now it's trading around $135. So that's that's just a recipe for not doing buybacks all that well. You take out debt to do buybacks and then you buyback shares at a higher level, that's significantly higher level for a company that's usually stable as much as CNR. And then you're looking at the performance since she became CEO and it's just been terrible for Canadian National Rail, sorry about that, getting my terms mixed up a little bit. Both are CNR. Yeah, exactly.

So CNR is down 5% since February of 2022. CP is up 16.2%. I'm looking at total returns here too. Union Pacific is up 4.7% the U.S. company and CSX, another rail company in the U.S. is up more than 11%. So I'm not comparing here to the TSX or the SMP 500. I'm comparing it to its peers and it's been a terrible performer. You can say what you want about Stacey and the management team there,

but the reality is that, I mean, you can't argue what you're seeing right now. And on the debt front, the last thing is I haven't looked at the debt in the term specifically, but I'll just assume that eventually in the next couple of years, I'll have to probably roll over a decent chunk of that debt. And they took it out during very low interest rates environment. So the interest rate on that debt will, likely be going up. So I think they're going to realize that they need to pay down that debt. Not that they're in a trouble or anything like that. The dividend is fine, but they'll probably

decide at some point that, look, we need to be smart about this and create some maneuver for us as a company. And that's, I think there's going to be a management shakeup in 2026 and they'll do those big changes. Yeah, it's been a weird, maybe this is the understatement of the year. It's been a weird couple years for this company post post the k c southern attempt they've just been in this very strange strategy for a while now it's it's been and it's been years and people are going to like it can't go on forever basically so i i tend to agree that this is a worthwhile prediction yeah and i think a lot of people might look to like something like cp and be like well they've tripled their debt, but I mean, they, they also spend $30 billion to buy an asset, whereas, like, CNRail's debt.

They got a premier life once in a lifetime asset. Yeah. Yeah. And I mean, you can't exactly blame, I guess, CNRail for, for striking out in terms of Kansas City Southern. I can't remember what I'm pretty sure they already had a line running there. So they rejected it kind of for competition wise, whereas CP didn't have the line that goes all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. Yeah. So or the Gulf of America now. Yeah. So I think it was just from a regulatory perspective. I think the U.S., I think it's the Transportation Board. Anyways, the regulator in the U.S., I think they were just not going to approve it just because it would have made them too powerful

in terms of their network. Yeah, so I mean, CP obviously gets that. It's a huge acquisition for them. And then, I don't know, they kind of like CNRail. It kind of seems like they've always done this, like headline you know buybacks and dividends are good headlines like i think like cn rails raise a dividend for like 27 consecutive years whereas like cp has always been that railway who doesn't really care i mean they won't they'll stop raising the dividend for two years if the balance

sheet isn't all that good and they'll kind of shore that up i mean there's it's like a complete opposite action what was taken like during covid cn rail ramped up the buybacks during probably the worst time to do so whereas cp cut them off And you could probably say that this was in large part due to the acquisition. So maybe they just got lucky in the fact that they bought the company at that time that resulted in, you know, the buyback stopping. But, I mean, they're just in a better position now to ramp it up now that prices are, you know, have been flat to down for three plus years. Yeah. Yeah, we'll see.

But that's my bold prediction. Both have to happen. So, Dan, your second one. Yeah. So I put that the TSX will outperform the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ for the second consecutive of year. So this actually hasn't happened since the great financial crisis, kind of during the midst of it. And I mean, we would have been looking at probably the commodity super cycle back then. A lot needs to go right in order for this to happen. This is probably more bold than

the anti-AI portfolio, I think, because one of the main drivers in the index in 2025 was gold miners and banks. And I mean, they make up a decent, well, I wouldn't say banks, just financial companies in general. And I think they're nearly 40% of the index. And, They had such a good run in 2025. It's kind of hard to imagine they would do it again in 2026. But there is some particular areas of the index that have been lagging for quite some time that could end up picking up the slack. I mean, we look to the railways, like industrial stocks. I think they're a double-digit portion of the index.

You can think the like the railways, the waste connections, well, I guess not waste management, waste connections. Canadian traded like those industrial type defensive stocks. The other one would be energy, like energy stocks have not had. the best run over the last while and they make a big big chunk of the index and i mean keep my like i don't believe materials will return 90 plus percent again it doesn't mean they won't do well though which could could be a strong driver i mean when we think of the like the physical layer of a i a lot of it lives on the tsx you talk about utility companies i can think of like something like capital power kind of an independent power provider here in alberta that you know they're

building these data centers all over Alberta and a lot of it has to do like capital power is in a lot of that right now you got natural gas providers nuclear providers copper gold uranium things like that so I mean basically this kind of hinges on the fact that the markets will swing from kind of growth at any cost in regards to US stocks and kind of head back to real economy stocks tangible assets one that you know will benefit from kind of an economic rebound of both Canada in the US and the US I mean, the TSX is just chock full of old economy, real economy stocks that nobody really cares about right now. I mean, it's AI, AI, AI, but if you think of what will move the needle over the long term, it, you know, it's something like this. Prime example, I think you would mention it would be WSP.

Like, they seem to have the same mentality because a lot of their big acquisitions as of late have been directed towards like electrification, like grid expansion, things like that. So I'm not the only one thinking about it. I don't want to set an actual outperformance number because, I mean, I think this is a hearty bold enough. But I just think the TSX will eclipse both these in 2026. Dude, WSP is such a beast. Yeah, I mean, if you want to look at a company that's going like electrification, like power engineers. What was it? TRC recently. Yeah, they just got they just bought another 8,000 employees.

Yeah, 30% of their business now is towards just. energy and power. I may have to follow you too and start a position, but yeah. I mean, you look at something like Quanta. It's a drawdown, so, yeah. Quanta, like the amount of infrastructure build out, it's, it's been pretty crazy. Yeah. Yeah, Quantia, you pay a huge, you're paying a pretty, pretty penny valuation wise.

I think WSP's kind of historically traded at reasonable prices. Mm-hmm. Still not cheap, but, yeah, cheaper than Quanta, but I like it then. I like the bold prediction. So, Brayden, what's your last one? Oh, God. Here we go. Okay.

So, Ruffle Feathers time. So first off, before the very passionate shareholder base comes after me with pitchforks, I want to give some flowers. Palantir has been easily one of the best stocks I've ever seen in my entire life. No question. investors have made 30 times their money if they've held it in the last three years, which is just absolutely insane. The company's nearing now a $4 billion run rate, has great margins generating a ton of free cash flow.

They've built some mind-blowing products as well for both public and private sectors that I don't actually understand, so don't actually explain what those things do. but hey, the net expansion with current clients is real and clearly driving a lot of value. You know, a flashy, cool AI product for a couple of years that can generate a lot of revenues, one thing, but to generate as much expansion, that's clearly different. And of course, Alex Carp has created himself as probably the most infamous business person maybe today, maybe him and Elon and Sam Altlin, you know, maybe the three of them. and it's maybe a cult following around him in the stock, I would say.

It's very battleground stock, very much so battleground stock. So with this preface, before the shareholders who have so much money, now they can fly a private jet to my house and tell me I'm an idiot. First of all, congrats, the business is cooking. And two, it's now becoming a bit of a U.S. government prime when it comes to software. They're basically software version of Lockheed Martin. So the core business is clearly defensible. Now, with that being said, get the popcorn ready. No matter the business, no matter the momentum, this is in the strike zone for a vicious, vicious drawdown. It has all

of the elements. Crazy multiple on a battleground stock. And when they trade at these types of multiples, look out below. We're talking about 120 times trailing sales, over 80 times, even forward-looking sales. We're talking about historical operating profits, 535. It's a number that's not even worth repeating. Next year's operating profits about 160 times. So the multiples are quite ridiculous. And so I actually bet that a long, long, long term vision of Palantir, it probably does pretty great. But in 2026, timestamp it now, I'm guessing a more than 30% drawdown on the ticker, which

would still be fantastic performance on a trailing basis. Don't get me wrong. But this is in the strike zone for one of the most vicious drawdowns. that you can possibly think of. It's probably been the best stock I've ever seen, maybe Palantir and Nvidia, like maybe the best two stocks of my investing career that I've ever witnessed.

And those often come with crazy, crazy volatility, especially if it's this kind of battleground culty type stock. So congrats, but look out and don't be surprised when this thing moves in a major way. It's crazy, huh? like $460 billion of market cap on $4 billion revenue and I do a run rate. Yeah. I had this is, I mean, this is a good story, but I guess depressing and way too.

I had a buddy that during the drawdown in 2022, he bought Carvanna and he bought Palantir and he sold them both like 10 bagger. And they both ran up like I think he bought Carvana at like it was some like six bucks a share and sold it at I think it was $50. and now they're 433. And even Palantir is like he bought it in mid single digits and sold it once he got like 10x back. And it's gone up to what is it almost 200 bucks a share now. It's crazy. I mean, Carvana was flirting with bankruptcy. Yeah, definitely.

Yeah, like literal. And that's kind of what I told him. And he's like, oh, yeah, I got out at 10x and now it's gone 100 X. I mean, there's worse things than doing a 10x. Oh, yeah. You sold a bit early. it's still... I mean, that chart

would haunt me for sure. With Carvana though, you're like, you kind of made the trade, you made out with a bandit of a company that was literally like going concern.

Yeah. Whereas the Nafos, the volunteer one probably stings a bit more. Yeah, because it's, yeah, they're growing at an insane pace,

but like, I just don't understand how you justify that valuation. It's tough. Yeah. The year over year revenue growth acceleration for Palantir is nothing short of exceptional. I'll read you the last

six quarters of top line year-over-year revenue growth starting from like June 24. So 27%, then 30%, then 36%, 39%, then up to 48% and then their most recent quarter, a 63%. So that year over the year over year growth acceleration is pretty insane. I know all that. What I do know is I've been doing this a long time now. And this is in the strike zone for a type of drawdown that scares a lot of people out of the name. Yeah. I mean, at those multiples, I'd expect like a doubling almost every quarter. Like that's that would be my expectation. Like as good as that sounds and acceleration is nice. like that is not enough to justify it but who knows maybe we'll be proven wrong and but i think if i had to bet i would be on your side where we're going to be a big pullback here like two things

can be true it can do really really well on a multi-decade horizon and it can go for a couple baths along the way and i think we're due for one of those imminently that's the prediction and it's right in that like hey I high too right like it's really really benefiting from that at least from a stock price like back and I think you know that at least the intelligent shareholder base probably knows that you know they've been around markets long enough that they know anything that's trading at this kind of nosebleed valuation like they they they got to be signing up for those types of drawdowns so yeah one we come sure one's gonna come and it's matter of when it's it's got to be yeah because if they traded it peak prices in 2021 they traded at around 60x

EV sales and they fell like in 2022 they fell to 6x and now they're trading at a so had like a 10x multiple compression back then yeah so 60x 60x in February of 2021 down to I mean these aren't exact but it looks like 5.7x to start 2023 and now they're trading at a 160x EV sales. Yeah. And they were growing at a similar fashion back in 2020. Yeah, so like, yeah, you're right. So this enterprise value to sales, 61, down to six, and it has climbed all the way to

116. Holy. And people work at Rag because you know as well as I do, that fear is a powerful motivator. And people in these kind of companies, they just see at the potential of then missing out on more and they don't want to sell. It's like your buddy that sold that 10 to 10 bagger, he's probably the exception to the rule.

Most people see this as, you know, they've made 510X wherever point they got in. And they're like, well, I mean, it's going to keep going, right? They don't want to sell because they're afraid of missing out. Yeah. That's one of the most absurd multiple expansion charts I've ever seen in my life, let alone for a company that's, you know, half a trillion in market cap. yeah yeah i mean evs sales isn't like the best metric to go off but like for you know a company like this i would probably view it reasonable i mean it's a suitable it tells the story the numbers probably

look worse if you were to look on a free cash flow basis so this is probably like the multiple here probably looks lower than if you were to look to like uh ev for cash flow i can't find it but yeah it's it's expensive i well it's it's like 500 times operating income right so yeah so they're trading at yeah 253x eb for cash flow and back during the like bear market they got down to 30x so yeah yeah oh god it's these these types of stocks you know they come around every once in a while and they're they're world beaters for people's portfolios but you know the rule breaker type stock, the Netflix's that had crazy historic runs, they looked insanely expensive multiple times throughout their career as well too. And they might have had multiples

like this. And those things worked out long term, but you got waxed. Every few years you get waxed. And you have to be able to hold, right? And I think that's where people will scroll back and oh, look, Amazon had like an 80, 90% drawdown in the early 2000. Find me how many people actually held. Correct. No, exactly. Like, it's easy to look back and be a long-term investor, but when you're facing, like, massive drawdowns,

it's easier said than done. And I think that's probably a good lesson for people who, like, look at that Amazon example because, you know, when you see your position drop by 80, 90%, like, good luck holding. Yeah. Especially for something like this where it is a battleground, heatly debated company. It's controversial in a lot of ways. And three, no matter, I don't care who you are, their products and their understanding of what the company actually does is deeply convoluted and hard to understand.

And the gen pop really doesn't know what the hell Palantir actually does. So if you're in one of those people and loving this riding the wave, but then the stock sells all of a cliff, what's your conviction to hold it? You've never felt the product. You've never touched it. You don't know anyone in the CIA using it. Like, it's not an easy stock to hold when shit it's the fan. It's a really easy stock to hold when it goes up into the right. Yeah, definitely.

Well, thanks for listening, guys. Is that it? Yeah, I think that's it. That's a good, bold prediction. So I guess, happy new year to everyone when you hear this. Yeah, happy new year. Happy New Year, everybody. We massively appreciate everyone tuning in for another year.

of the show. Simone, we started this in 2019. Yep, yeah. October of 2019, the birth date of the show. And here we are through another year. I've had, thank you for everyone to the team. Dan, you've been a full-time regular on the show now for a good chunk of time. And we appreciate you. Yeah, I think it's been, well, a little over two years ago once a week. And then I can't remember when I went two times a week. Probably would have been, what, midway through last year or something? I can't remember. I think it was early.

Midway through this year. Yeah. Early this year, I think. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It was definitely this year. Yeah.

Amazing. Well, thanks, guys. Thanks to the two of you and all the listeners. And some of our best content always comes out this time of year and then the beginning of 2026. So make sure you're tuning in every week. We are here twice a week. And so is the Canadian real estate investor podcast.

They are also live twice a week. a week on Tuesdays and Fridays. And I've been tuning into that a little bit more. Not only are they great, but it's an actual drawdown in Canadian real estate too, which is exciting for guys like us that can finally find some value in that asset class. That's also exciting. I mean, I'm from Alberta. There's always been value here. Oh, well, that's true. Perpetual value. For me in the center of the universe, It's a new concept. Center of the universe with a terrible hockey team.

Thanks, guys. Appreciate it. See in a few days. Bye-bye. The Canadian Investor podcast should not be construed as investment or financial advice. The host and guests featured may own securities or assets discussed on this podcast. Always do your own due diligence or consult with a financial professional before making any financial or investment decisions.