The Canadian Investor - 3 Stocks We're Watching for 2026 (Big Opportunities Ahead)

Episode Date: April 6, 2026

In this quarterly “stocks on our radar” episode, we’re joined by Braden Dennis as each of us brings one investment idea to the table. Before diving into the stocks, we discuss major breaking news in AI and private markets, including reports of a potential SpaceX IPO and OpenAI’s massive new funding round at an eye-popping valuation. We then shift to our featured companies. Braden introduces QXO, a roll-up led by serial entrepreneur Brad Jacobs targeting the fragmented building products industry. Simon looks at Siemens Energy, a global player benefiting from rising demand for power infrastructure, while navigating challenges in its wind segment. Dan rounds things out with Dollarama, exploring whether recent weakness is a temporary blip or a longer-term shift in consumer behavior. We also discuss broader themes including AI commoditization, capital allocation, energy demand, and how changing consumer habits could permanently impact retail. Tickers of stocks discussed: QXO, Siemens Energy (SMERY / ENR), Dollarama (DOL.TO)    Subscribe to our Our New Youtube Channel! Check out our portfolio by going to Jointci.com Our Website Our New Youtube Channel! Canadian Investor Podcast Network Twitter: @cdn_investing Simon’s twitter: @Fiat_Iceberg Braden’s twitter: @BradoCapital Dan’s Twitter: @stocktrades_ca Want to learn more about Real Estate Investing? Check out the Canadian Real Estate Investor Podcast! Apple Podcast - The Canadian Real Estate Investor  Spotify - The Canadian Real Estate Investor  Web player - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Asset Allocation ETFs | BMO Global Asset Management Sign up for Fiscal.ai for free to get easy access to global stock coverage and powerful AI investing tools. Register for EQ Bank, the seamless digital banking experience with better rates and no nonsense.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Investing is simple, but don't confuse that with thinking it's easy. A stock is not just a ticker. At the end of the day, you have to remember that it's a business. Just my reminder to people who own cyclicals, don't be surprised when there's a cycle. If there's uncertainty in the markets, there's going to be some great opportunities for investors. This has to be one of the biggest quarters I've seen from this company in quite some time.

The Canadian Investor Podcast, welcome back to the show. We have the three amigos. My name is Bray and Dennis. Join by Simon, Belanger, and Dan Kent. Every quarter, I come back on the show. And, you know, this is going to be a banger episode because we all brought one stock to talk about. So in a true quarterly mastermind, type format that that's going to be what we're doing today. Yeah, exactly. We can call it stocks on our

radar or that we've recently purchased presented by EQ Bank. That's not a mouthful at all, is it? No, exactly. It just rolls off the tongue. But we do have some pretty interesting news that essentially just came up after we had finished recording our news and earnings episodes. So I know you're on top of that, Braden. Did you want to go over that with us? So literally we're recording this on April 1st. and it just got out, I think, within the last hour. Half hour ago, yeah. Yeah, two things that have happened in the last half an hour and 24 hours when it comes to private markets and potentially future public markets and AI.

And, you know, assuming neither of them are one giant April Fool's joke on us, but SpaceX is apparently just confidentially filed for going public. That has been the word on the street that they were going to do that at some point this year. and they're eyeing what I heard of $1.75 trillion valuation, which is quite spectacular, if you think about it. And then also yesterday, guys, Open AI, obviously privately held, just raised a boatload of money. So this is a bit of a blockbuster type raise. So, yeah, the company is now worth, you know, on this private mark over. $800 billion, which is crazy. So they raised $122 billion flagship investors include

Nvidia, Amazon, and SoftBank. Not bad for a money losing company, huh? Well, yeah, what was it, $20 billion in revenue, I think last year? Yeah, they say that they're doing $2 billion a month now in revenue. So, you know, call it $25 billion in revenue. And they expect this $100,000, 22 billion dollar fundraise to only give them 16 months of operating runway. Oh, that's hilarious. Oh, boy. Yeah. It's, oh, man, AI.

It's really interesting. Just the build down around it and how especially those LLM models, like it just feels more and more like it's going to be a commodity almost, right? So I don't know. I could be wrong, but it just feels like we're heading that way where they're competing a whole lot on price. Well, it might be a giant commodity, seeing as Anthropic leak their entire source code yesterday. Yeah, I saw that. You know, I haven't been on the pod in a while, and now I am reminded why there's always something to talk about on these microphones, isn't there?

No, never short of information. Yeah, recently it's been a lot of Trump, but, you know, with a muskeelon must doesn't disappoint a whole lot of the time and i guess uh just something always something to talk about i think it's you know there's a couple things happening here right which is okay these mega private companies we're not talking about unicorns we're talking about trillion dollar ipos here right and i think you know there's always going to be that Elon Musk premium multiple for everything that he has that's available for investors. And so some of it is obviously based on the fact that he is one of the truly greatest inventors of all time. But at the same time, dunk on the valuation, dunk on Open AI, raising all this

money with these circular deals and this crazy private equity structure, I'm just happy that they're going to be moving towards public markets again. That's a trend, I hope, sticks here. I hope that SpaceX goes so well, even if it's super pricey, that it sets us a precedent for taking these things public. So I'm trying to find the positives here. Well, and I think it includes their chatbot too, doesn't it,

from what I'm reading here? Yeah, well, XAI is part of it, right? Yeah, so it includes GROC like their, there. I've never used Grock, but yeah, it includes I've used it a little bit. Apparently it's, it has like a $250 billion

valuation tucked into there. Yeah. And you know, everyone is eyeing his next move on combining it with Tesla. Yeah. Right?

That seems to be the broader structure of bringing all three of SpaceX, X, and all into one. He's going to have to rename Tesla to X, CarX or something. Robot X. I don't know. But yep, these are the big blockbusters here today recording. And it's significant. You know, these are obviously very large generational era-defining companies that have been built in the venture world and now potentially converging to the public market. This has to be the largest IPO by a country mile, no?

Country, country mile. Yeah, like absolute mile. Yeah. That's huge. Yeah, and I think there's probably going to be a decent amount of demand, right? People will want to get exposure to SpaceX, but also it's going to be one of the few ways to get direct exposure to a large LLM, right? When you think about it. So you can get some indirect exposure and some companies have stakes that are publicly listed.

but this one is definitely a way for those who want to have a bit more of a pureplay mixed in with the space exploration part of it. If you want exposure to Anthropic by Zoom stock, I don't know if you saw how much they own like, I think, 2% of Anthropic, which is hilarious. Zoom does? Zoom, yes. Which is probably grown to quite a nice chunk of their valuation. The, this article I've read here that today this represents a 78X on their money since they invested. Pretty, pretty good. Yeah. I'd take half of it. You know, we're out here just investing. You know, I think we're all smart. Like the guys at the strategic venture fund at Zoom making 100 baggers out here for them. I do wonder before we move on to your, the stock here that you want to go over, I do wonder at one point the market will lose pay. for these LLMs losing money.

Because now there's still a lot of money coming in, but at some point, I mean, if they keep dumping money in these companies and they just have to dump more and more and more money, like they're not going to get good ROI on those investments sooner or later. Yeah, I mean,

I would take, just to steal, man, I'd take the other side just because if you look at the trajectory of something like Claude and anthropic and the traction that it's getting and this revenue ramp that they're seeing,

there's going to be demand for exposure to that position. I just can't picture a world where there's not demand for that, even if it's crazy expensive in losing lots of money. That could be the way that they build the ladder really, really tall, remove the ladder and build some regulatory capture. They're already telling you that they want, to do this. Darusks come on and said he wants to like do all this regulatory capture and it's like wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. That's not how Silicon Valley operates. So I don't know.

I mean, it's hard to say. These companies are just like the growth is, I've never, I mean, we have never seen anything like it. It's, it's unbelievable. No, I get it. I mean, I guess there's the growth, but there's the money burning aspect. So I think it's at some point they're going to have to show profitability. That's just my point because I think investors do lose patience over time. Yeah. Having cash on hand is essential for any business. Traditional business accounts hit you with high fees while paying little to no interest on the cash you need for day-to-day operations. That was our experience too until we switched to the new EQ Bank business account.

Now, every dollar earns high interest with no monthly fees and no minimum balance. You also get free everyday transactions like EFTs, bill payments, mobile check deposits, and 50 outgoing and 100 incoming free interackey transfers. And to sign up, quick and fully online. No branch visits because, let's be honest, no business owner has time for that. We use it for our own business and it's the first account that actually helps our money work harder while keeping operations simple. Check it out today at EQBank.ca.

There is an old saying in investing. It's not about timing the market, but time in the market. The most successful investors aren't usually the ones trying to catch every top and bottom. They're the ones who spend the most time in the market. I've been a quest trade user for over five years, and the reason I stick with them is that they remove the friction of regular investing. With no commissions on stock and ETF trades, you don't have to wait until you have thousands of dollars saved up,

of dollars saved up to make a move. You can contribute small amounts regularly and keep your portfolio growing consistently, removing the stress of trying to time the market. And they keep making it easier to build a well-rounded portfolio. Soon, you'll be able to trade precious metals through Questrade, giving you even more ways to diversify. Questrade makes the whole process seamless, allow you to focus on what really matters your investment strategy, not trying to avoid fees. Ready to invest, head over to questray.com, open and fund your account with code TCI and receive $50. Conditions apply. Calling all DIY, do-it-yourself investors, Blossom is an essential app for you. It has been blowing up with now more than 50,000 Canadians plus and growing who are using the app.

Every time I go on there, I am shocked. The engagement is amazing. amazing. This is a really vibrant community that they're building. And people share their portfolios, their trades, their investment ideas in real time. And it's all built on the concept of transparency because brokerage accounts are linked. And then once you link your brokerage account, you can get in-depth portfolio insights, track your dividends. And there's other stuff like learning duolingo style education lessons that are completely free. You can search up Blossom social in the app store and join the community today. I'm on there. I'm you go on there and follow me, search me up, some of the YouTubers and influencers and podcasters

that you might know, I bet you they're already on there. People are just on there talking, sharing their investment ideas and using the analytics tools. So go ahead, blossom social in the app store and I'll see you there. Anyways, we'll move on here. So do you want to go to the newest position you started because you tend to not start many new positions? No, no. Yeah, I can kick us off today. So we have three. We're going to talk about one each. And yeah, that's, that's a good intro. A disclaimer is, I am a shareholder of this company. So it is the first new position that I've went in in quite some time. I think the last time I bought a new stock was at some point in the middle of last year. I purchased American Express, which I like again quite a bit. I like almost every

quality name in the portfolios on some sort of drawdown right now. And I like a lot of them. So this is a new one. And that is QXO. The ticker is QXO. And you guys know how I operate. I like to sit on some ideas, have a roster of things I'm researching for, you know, months, potentially years before pulling the trigger. And you can't talk about QXO without talking about Brad Jacobs. And Simon, Dan, you've heard me talk about Brad Jacobs before, I recall. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, it's been a while, but yeah. Yeah, I was looking them up when you were doing it last episode, and I just got the curler. I remember that. Like Brad Jacobs, the curler.

Yeah. Oh, yeah, that's right. He's the Canadian curler. Yeah, a different guy. No, Brad Jacobs is a private equity roll-up M&A cowboy, and he's without a doubt, one of the best entrepreneurs, operators, fundraisers, speakers. capital allocators to ever live. He's 69 years old today. Nice. And has one of the most infectious energies I've ever heard. I don't know if you've ever listened to it. He did a podcast with Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy. He's done, he did one with founders as well too. And he did all these podcasts tours last year or the year before because he came out with a sequel to his book, How to Make a Few Billion Dollars. And the sequel that came out last year was how to make a few more billion dollars. So that's the names of his two books. So this is the kind of energy that you can

understand from this guy. Now, you got it. The reason I'm talking so much about Brad at the beginning here, and then I'll talk about QXO, his latest venture. But he is directly responsible and a founder for eight, I think QXO marks his ninth billion dollar company. So he started an oil brokerage firm in the late 70s. He then started United Waste, which sold for several billion dollars. United Rentals is, you know, a massive company. You guys know United Rentals, that company.

XPO Logistics is a very, very large trucking and logistics company. He also spun out GXO out of that. And I think there was another spin out from XPO that I'm forgetting. But that's obviously, I think, three separate public, tens of billions of dollars of market cap as well. And now this latest one, which is about 13 billion in market cap now called QXO. And the reason it's already 13 billion is because he bought something for 10 billion and already deployed something now for another 13 billion. So he is a master fundraiser. Like he put together the largest and fastest, you know, physical, physical, physical

product sector, private equity investment of all time. And this is called pipe, which is basically private investment in public equity. So I'll get into what QXO is and what they're buying so far. But Dan, what do you think so far? What do you think of Brad? I mean, I had never heard of him, and I didn't actually look it up after you had mentioned him. But I mean, yeah, United Waste was like, he took it to 2.5 billion in less than 10 years. I mean, it's kind of a kind of, it looks like QXO, like I know nothing about this company, but like just reading the acquisitions, it kind of seems like the same area that a company like Home Depot is going down. Correct.

Yeah. He's identified them as a, yeah, as a target. Yeah. Not to take them out, but, you know, competitive landscape. Home Depot is buying the exact same companies that QXO is buying right now because they're trying to get more into distribution rather than. relying on like retail renovations, things like that. Yep, he's going against Home Depot and lows for these businesses. Some giants. Yeah, yeah. And I mean, United Rentals is a 61 billion enterprise value

company today, right? Like it's also massive. That's been such a good stock. Wow. I'm just looking at the max chart on United Rentals. Oh my God. She's Max. Yeah, it is, it is, it is important. So that's Brad. And let's talk about QXO. And this is what I call a sidecar investment. You're betting on the jockey. He's had multiple horses. Right now the horses QXO, but you're betting on the jockey. For example, I think this sidecar investment you could think of is, you know, Brookshire Hathaway, you've been riding in the sidecar with Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger for decades. I'm an investor in TerraVest on the Tierra. which is, you know, betting on the jockey of Dustin Haugh. And so investing in QXO is very similar framework, right? Brad has run this playbook with all of these different companies and many of them in the physical world. And, you know, when it comes to garbage, equipment rentals, trucking and now like roofing, for example, he's done this for a while. And there's very little, you know, reason to doubt his ability to execute here. And I'm going to list reasons why he likes building

products and why he's been eyeing this sector for a long time. So if you look up QXO and you look at the historical stock price, you can be like, what is this? And I love that because it screens terribly. The casuals will stay out of my stock for a while here. If you look at the chart, you're like, what is going on? Like this thing's been public for a long time. It had this huge run up, it sold off. It had this run up again. It sold off again. Like, what is this thing? And so it's important to have the framework here that the company used to be called Silver Sun Technologies, which is a legacy public technology company. And he used that as a shell to like reverse merger into QXO. And there's three things that Brad likes about building products. One, massive scale and fragmentation.

The same way that Dustin Haan, TerraVest in North America loves things that use the core product of steel, whether it's tankers and HVAC and boilers, the massive scale and fragmentation of a market that does 800 billion in North America and Europe makes for a very attractive roll-up, of course. Very low digital penetration is something that Brad always looks for. He goes, look at this amazing, business with all this market share, and they're doing so many things still manually, so many things

without technology. They don't have a centralized hub for any of this stuff. And so this has always been key for him. He's always talked about centralizing the operations where, you know, as new entities come online, they start using the same stack, which by the way is a very different strategy than Constellation, for example. He's like, I buy it and I don't touch it, right? Like you keep operating, you act independently, that is not Brad's M.O. It's, we're buying you and you're merging all your stack onto the QXO platform. Three is stable recurring demand. And I'll add a fourth one here that I'm curious on your opinion, Simone. I'll add a fourth that's interesting in a day like today and something Brad probably likes is he can use AI automation and technology and not be in the

crosshairs of AI disruption today. Yeah, yeah. I mean, it's not the kind of business that's likely to get disrupted. I think that's definitely where I'm at right now, just because it's just so difficult to know where AI is going and what kind of impacts it could have positive or negative on a whole lot of different businesses. So a lot of real world businesses that are tangible things where they will undoubtedly get more efficient with AI, but they're not likely to get disrupted. Those are definitely the companies I'm like. right now for sure. 100%. And so the two main flagship assets, well, the main flagship assets was beacon roofing. And so they bought it for around $11 billion. Fortune 500 company distributor of roofing products, $9 billion in 2024, $200 in 2024 revenue, 600 branches across North America, established one of the largest players

and dominant players in roofing and exterior building products. That's called Beacon. And they have announced a definitive agreement to acquire Codiac, which is lumber trusses, windows, and doors. So again, building products for... I've seen the Codiac one before. You've seen them? Yeah.

Yeah. Yeah. That's expected to grow... Sorry, that's expected to close here in Q2. and that was for another 2.25 billion. So they've been identified as, you know, one of the largest players in many of the U.S. states and very, very fast growing as well, too.

Now, I'll close it out here is Brad is a world-class capital raiser. He knows how to sell the vision. He knows how to dilute my ass over the next couple years because he's going to raise a lot more money. He needs to. And so the goal right now is to be, get to $50 billion through M&A in the next 10 years. That's the goal that he's set out.

It's the goal that he says publicly, constantly, and it's the goal that he actually puts on the companies about. You know, like in the bottom of the SEC filing, it says QXO is like a leader in building products and is going to be at 50 million, I'm sorry, 50 billion in sales by 2035. That's what he puts in the about. So yeah, I think it's an interesting play.

Obviously, there's a lot of opportunity for centralizing a lot of these operations, make everything the same. Everything should use the same payroll solution. Everything should use the same CRM versus let them operate as they are, which is a very different strategy, by the way, than Mark Leonard and Constellation and some of the other names that I'm invested in. But I'm curious to hear what you guys think. I'm open to feedback.

I'm open to poking holes in the thesis. It's a new position and it's still small. It's about 2, 3% position. Yeah, for me, it's just the one thing I will be interesting in seeing how he does is the housing market in the U.S., but North America as well, like, has just been struggling over the last year plus now. So I do wonder how it's going to fare in the next year or two and a lot of predictions. are that, you know, especially in the U.S. And you saw everything going on with immigration enforcement over there and the population

growth slowing, demand for new buildings, the overbuilding being that had been done in the sunbelt during the COVID years. I'm just going to be curious to see how they weather that because if they're making acquisitions, but then they're also doing that in a slowdown. It'll be interesting. Maybe he's able to get better value on some of those acquisitions because of that. Yeah. Yeah, that's always like the two sides of the coin, right?

It's like, it seems that market could struggle. It's like, okay, but then maybe there's better M&A, but then the existing businesses may struggle. What we do know is that a lot of this stuff is cyclical. It is macro sensitive. It is rate sensitive. He, I guess the counter for him is that, and I've looked at Beacons financials historically, not very cyclical. surprisingly, you know, when you got to get your roof done, you don't really have a choice. So there's been things that he's clearly been eyeing that are less cyclical in a cyclical industry.

And roofing seems to fit the bill. I mean, just looking at Beacons financials over the last, you know, 10, 15 years, it does not look like the visual I would expect for a building's supply business. So maybe there's something there to that where he can get pretty decent valuations on things that look really cyclical, but actually maybe aren't that cyclical. Yeah, I mean, I just kind of look back to, again, like Home Depot, because they bought SRS distribution. This was like a few years ago now, but that is pretty much a roofing company. And they paid way more than this for a little bit more revenue. Like I think SRS was like 10 or 11 billion revenue and it looks like Beacon is nine, but they also paid 18 and a half billion versus 11. So obviously, I mean, they could be

very different companies under the surface. But it's, it's interesting to me because it's kind of one of the reasons that I own, have owned Home Depot for quite a while is kind of the, the housing market and just kind of pent up renovation demand moving forward. Obviously, it's, I thought that story would have played out by now. And it's definitely not playing out. It's, it's getting worse, but I still kind of hold it because, I mean, yeah, it is cyclical, but it's hard to imagine that you don't get an inevitable return of the construction market. And again, there's no AI level disruption risk in construction. I think that's, I can't even remember which big CEO said.

It's going to be like one of the main areas that survives all this is like trades workers and construction, things like that. So, yeah, I'll have to dig deeper. could be that the lower valuation or lower price without knowing the financial of the businesses could just be a reflection that they did it more recently. Yeah. Valuations have come down because there's more headwinds for the housing and construction market and they got a better price because of it.

Yeah. Yeah. And he hasn't been shy from these cyclicals. I mean, trucking, right? Right. Like their equipment rental. So he's been in these sectors where maybe he, maybe he likes the cyclical nature of it because he can just shore up the balance sheet like an

absolute sicko better than anyone else. So maybe there's some advantage there. Another thing that I'd bring up to maybe for your eyes, Den, is another look at floor and decor. Floor and decor is now down to about $5 billion in market cap and the leader in flooring in the U.S. and is getting pretty interesting again. It's always, always feels kind of bad to own these names. Yeah, I mean, Anything renovation-wise? Like, it just, it never feels great, but it is worth a look here, floor and decor, ticker F&D.

I mean, if you're going to buy it, you might as well buy it when there's, you know, there's some headwinds for the industry. Like, that is the time to buy it, right? I mean, you look at like a Richard Lou in Canada, too. Yeah, it's boom and bust. How do you say it?

I probably put you. Yeah. Yeah, like their hardware. Yeah. They're boom and busts constantly. Like they'll, yeah, but that's just kind of the industry, really, just the demand is so cyclical. But yeah, it's an interesting, like when you were first going to talk about it, I did not expect it to be a building material company. Yeah.

I will say that. Yeah, I was surprised too, I must say. Yeah, but I started reading on it before you came on. I was like, okay, interesting, interesting. I own lots of boring stuff. I mean, I've been banging the drum on TerraVest for a long time. I mean, boilers, HVAC, and, you know, tanks for holding fossil fuels. It's not exactly the sexiest thing on earth.

Having cash on hand is essential for any business. Traditional business accounts hit you with high fees while paying little to no interest on the cash you need for day-to-day operations. That was our experience, too, until we switched to the new EQBank business account. Now, every dollar earns high interest with, no monthly fees and no minimum balance. You also get free everyday transactions like EFTs, bill payments, mobile check deposits, and 50 outgoing and 100 incoming free interackey transfers. And to sign up quick and fully online, no branch visits because, let's be honest,

no business owner has time for that. We use it for our own business and it's the first account that actually helps our money work harder while keeping operations simple. Check it out today at EQBank.ca slash business. There is an old saying in investing. It's not about timing the market, but time in the market. The most successful investors aren't usually the ones trying to catch every top and bottom. They're the ones who spend the most time in the market. I've been a quest trade user for over five years,

and the reason I stick with them is that they remove the friction of regular investing. With no commissions on stock and ETF trades, You don't have to wait until you have thousands of dollars saved up to make a move. You can contribute small amounts regularly and keep your portfolio growing consistently, removing the stress of trying to time the market. And they keep making it easier to build a well-rounded portfolio. Soon, you'll be able to trade precious metals through Questrade, giving you even more ways to diversify.

Questrade makes the whole process seamless, allow you to focus on what really matters, your investment strategy, not trying to avoid fees. Ready to invest, head over to questray.com, open and fund your account with code TCI and receive $50. Conditions apply. Calling all DIY, do-it-yourself investors, Blossom is an essential app for you. It has been blowing up with now more than 50,000 Canadians plus and growing who are using the app. I go on there, I am shocked. The engagement is amazing. This is a really vibrant community that

they're building. And people share their portfolios, their trades, their investment ideas in real time. And it's all built on the concept of transparency because brokerage accounts are linked. And then once you link your brokerage account, you can get in-depth portfolio insights, track your dividends. And there's other stuff like learning duolingo style education lessons that are completely free. You can search up Blossom Social in the app store. and join the community today. I'm on there. I encourage you go on there and follow me, search me up. Some of the YouTubers and influencers and podcasters that you might know, I bet you they're already on there. People are just on there talking, sharing their investment ideas and using the analytics tools.

So go ahead, blossom social in the app store and I'll see you there. Good segue. Sima. Let's go to you now on your pick. Yeah, so I'm, I guess that's been a theme for me now for probably better part of the game. Here is looking at some interesting energy plays. This one that I have on my radar right now, it's Siemens Energy, ticker S-M-E-R-Y. It's on pink sheets, but it is listed. Its home exchange is Frankfurt, Germany.

So for those are interested in the names, potentially having it, like in a TFSA, for example, typically they'll be eligible because they are listed on a designated exchange, even though it's being purchased and on the pink sheets are over the counter. Siemens Energy, obviously it's the massive German company. They have a few different segments. So four main segments overall. First one is the gas services business, which has been literally firing on all cylinders.

This, for those who are not familiar, essentially this is where they sell their gas turbines for gas plants for energy plants. So massive demand, they currently have an order backlog of 60 billion euros. and they're booked to bill ratio, which means it's at three, meaning they are booking almost three times as much in terms of new order than they are billing. So their backlog is actually growing. If you have a one for one, the backlog's kind of staying just stable. Anything below one, it's reducing just to give some context here because sometimes backlog can look nice, but they're actually, the backlog is actually decelerating. So that's just good context and revenue for that one.

that segment is up 14% you over a year. The next segment they have is grid technologies. So that one has also been doing extremely well. Currently, 45 billion euros in backlog. That book to bill ratio right around two. And revenues have increased 27% year to year. Think segment is this segment is electricity transmission equipment like transformer switch gears. Again, we talked about AI a little bit at the beginning.

We need more energy. I don't see that segment slowing down anytime soon. The next one here is the transformation of industry. That is the actual segment. It's basically related to transitioning from carbon to less carbon-intensive energy. Of course, this has not been as prominent than, let's say, just a few years ago. The backlog is $8 billion. The book-to-bill ratio is still 1.2.

So still growing that backlog, but revenues were, essentially flat. And then the next segment here, the reason why the company has been struggling, but I also think a reason why you can even be more bullish for this company. So this is their wind power business. It's called Siemens Gamma Cia, Gammacia. I'm not quite sure, but let's just say the win business. And this has been just a massive drag on the business. First, they had quality issues that were uncovered for some of their new wind, newest wind turbines, which required them to spend billions of dollars to fix those issues. They also had execution problems with the production of their offshore wind turbines.

I think a lot of it was caused by trying to rush to market. There was a whole lot of demand for wind energy, if we're thinking about the last 10 years. It's been weighing on the business for years, but management said they expect this segment to break even in 2026. They had a backlog of 34 billion euros, but they're booked to bill ratio. was 0.66. So the backlog is actually shrinking. It was so bad that the German government had to provide a backstop for Siemens Energy's debt, meaning that if Siemens Energy couldn't pay, they would have to step in.

However, they no longer have that backstop. So they've been, they're clear, they've restructured their debt with their lenders. The German government is no longer the backstop. So clearly improving. And like I mentioned, all the segments are doing quite well, except the, wind one, but I think the wind may be a hidden gem. Of course, you're kind of betting that they're going to be sorting everything out and all these quality control issues just continue getting better and they start being profitable next year. But if we're just thinking about what's going on with the energy shock and the war in Iran and the street of Hormuz, if I'm a country that's very dependent on Middle East energy, whether it's oil or natural gas,

I'm going to be looking at any form of energy that is not dependent on that, whether that's wind, solar, nuclear, you name it. Yeah, independence is going to be the buzzword of the second half of this year. Yeah. And I think you, whatever, even coal, right? Like, I know people don't like to think about coal, but some countries will probably resort to that if they have coal in abundance in their country. That's just how I think what we're seeing right now will impact how a lot.

lot of government and countries think and try to have that energy independence that you just said. And I think wind will inevitably be beneficiary. And for natural gas, I mean, the demand is still going to be there because in North America, it's abundant. And I don't see North America power producers shying away from still buying more gas turbines from companies like Siemens Energy. Not to mention that Europe loves European political. figures love to tell you about energy independence while shutting off their nuclear reactors at the same time, by the way. That's their favorite thing to do is completely contradict their mission. Exactly. But I think it's a really, it's kind of, it's not trading cheaply because there's been

just so much demand for gas turbines. If you look at G. V. G. Veranova is the name. If you look at that one, And they're also the other big player in the gas turbine field. They've just been on a complete tear. I think you're getting Siemens energy at a bit of a discount because of those wind issues. Of course, you're betting that they'll kind of continue progressing on that and the wind side will just get better. But it is a name I have on my radar because I think they could see some massive tailwinds for years, if not 10 plus years. So, Smod, there's Siemens. the German multinational Siemens AG, that's a different ticker, correct?

Just to confirm. Yeah, that's different. Yeah, this one is S-M-E-R-Y on the pink sheets, Siemens Energy specifically. And the primary listing, I believe, is ENR. Could be in Franklin. Yeah. Yeah. On the German exchange.

Yeah. Yeah, and Frankfurt. But I know it's not a name. This thing's gone nuclear since. Oh, yeah. It's done well, but it's not trading as expensively as a GV, for example, G. Veranova. If you want to see something parabolic, look at that one. Crazy.

I didn't even know they were. What's that? I didn't know they were in this side of the business like power and everything. I mean, I spent a lot of long, long hours inside Siemens switch gear for many, many years. I didn't know they were into like wind power at all. Yeah, they've, I knew they were one of the big players there. I didn't know they were like that big in gas turbines was the other things. But I know it's on my radar, especially if there's a little bit of a pullback. I think I might start a position and just bet on humans needing more energy. That's it. That's always a good bet. Yeah, that's always a good bet. I'd be curious to know. I don't know if you know this, but just the servicing of this stuff too is where I get particularly interested. Because you have, you know, if you have this installed base of gas, of gas turbines. Anytime, like, installed base is like a trigger word for me where I'm all of a sudden very interested where you have like ASML is like installed base. Intuitive surgical, there's an

installed base. Same with this stuff. If there's like turbines that they're putting into a gas plant or a nuclear facility, you're going to need to service the turbines. Yeah, I think they service that stuff. I haven't done a deep enough dive. I think they include it in each segment, but that's something That's a good point. I should take that. I would assume that they do a whole lot of servicing for that kind of specialized equipment. Dan, the man. Let's round it out here.

All right. So, yes, Canadian stock. Very popular Canadian stock, but it's in a bit of a dip right now. And that is dollarama. I think probably from listening to me for a long time on the podcast,

I've kind of, you know, my, I think Canadians are in a, cost of living crunch. I think that is, I guess I'll explain it. I'll go through it here, but we're around 17% off highs, and I think it's mostly because of some soft quarters and soft guidance in terms of

same store sales. So last quarter, they came in around 1% less than expected, and I kind of spooked the market a bit. And the company mentioned, and we kind of thought this was weird, but they said it was weather related. So they said that like, oh, yeah, December and January, we're, like so bad that it kind of killed traffic into the stores. It was cold and snowing.

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. In Canada. So I mean, shocker. Yeah. It's like I kind of tend to be cautious on, you know, this side regards to this,

which is kind of why the company's on my watch list and not necessarily something I'm looking to buy. I mean, if it was truly weather related, we'll see a rebound next quarter. Obviously, same store sales should come back. That's not going to be weather related. this time. And I mean, if results lag again, you might, you know, it might take another bit of a hit.

I mean, if this quarter was kind of a bit of an anomaly, I do think the company is priced well. And I mean, most will kind of look on the surface and see some pretty big valuations, like not Costco level, but I guess reasonably close. I think they're trading mid 30x price to earnings multiple right now. I mean, at one point, I think they were in the 40s. For a lot, this kind of seems expensive to pay for, a retailer growing at, you know, 10% a year. But going back to my point, like, I think there's there's permanent tailwinds here for a company in regards to how Canadian shop and just how consumers globally shop, because this is no longer a Canadian player. I mean, they're running pilots in Mexico. They bought a reject shop in Australia. They're kind of turning that around.

And I think for a long time, like when when inflation was high, because I had spoke about loblas a lot at stock trades like over in 2020, 21, 22 about how, you know, prices are getting high inflation through the roof. Like people are going to, I don't know what you would call it, downgrade in terms of shopping. Yeah, discount shopping. Yeah, like they're going to level down in terms of where they're going and, you know, eventually, you know, rates would come down. Consumers would open up their wallet.

Like, I don't think we're ever going to see this again. I think like there is, it's permanent. I don't think we're ever going to see, you know, people level up again in terms of shopping. I mean, like, prime example for me. I mean, I used to exclusively shop at Sobies. I knew it was more expensive than Dollarama, no frills, all that type of stuff. I didn't really care. The stores were nicer.

Like the no frills where I'm at is not nice at all. But eventually, like I just kind of got pushed out of that store to places like Costco, no frills, which would be la blah, like even dollarrama. And like now that I got used to this, I don't see. myself ever going back. Like I just, I won't. I don't know if I've been in Asobes for two plus years. And like it, I don't think it would ever matter how low my cost of living would get. I just can't see myself ever going back to spending more on discretionary items, which I think is the reason why the shift to stores like Dollarama is permanent. And I do think there was kind of a stigma on

these types of stores. I mean, from myself included, who didn't really feel the pinch when spending elsewhere. But I mean, now that, you know, I've kind of gone in them, realize they really aren't that bad. I mean, there's no reason to going to paying more. And yeah, I don't know. I'm with you. I feel stupid if I'm overpaying for the same food. Sometimes I see that. We have a Loblaws in a super store. So same owned by Loblaws, both of them. And the Loblaw is a bit closer and I can walk to than the super store. And I've certain items, I've seen them more expensive at blah blah. It's the exact same thing.

Like literally a buck or two more. And sometimes I was in a pinch and I had to buy it. But I feel like so stupid when I know I could go to the other store. Even if it's just a dollar difference, I like, I hate it. I hate it. Yeah. Well, I mean, I'm no, I'm no frills gang. No frills gang for life, man.

My condo that I'm in Toronto right now, there's, I'm in like a dead zone for no frills. Like there's tons around, but there's none near me. So I haven't been going. But like, if I was. near one, I would still be going to the, because here's a thing, like, I don't know if you guys know this, but Metro, overpriced,

bad, in my opinion. In my, you know, this is all of the same all anecdotal. It's overpriced, yeah. So, it's like, it's like high prices, low quality. I don't understand why anyone goes there. I'm going to get like some Metro lovers hating on me in the DMs.

And like, sobies is just like a little bit better, but like you're paying a bunch. And then I go into like, a no frills or something. I'm like, stuff's like arguably better. Yeah. Like when, but it's,

it's all actually on you in the product section. It's not on the store. Like you got to find, you know, you got to go get the right avocado. Like it is, it is on you in the product, proddy section.

So as long as you are, you know, diligent and you can now spend a lot less and get arguably better stuff. So I'm with you, man. Yeah. And I think pre-pandemic or like pre-inflation, I guess. I don't think a lot of people factor this in. And then obviously,

when grocery prices go up by 7, 8% during that period, and we're getting 6% again, like, Dollarama doesn't really offer a lot of groceries. I guess they have some sort of stuff, but a lot of discretionary and staple items that, like, people will just shop around for now because they don't really think they have a choice. And like, if we look to valuations, And so they finally hit 10-year median averages. And the reason I say 10-year is we're kind of comparing what this company traded at post-pandemic and a reasonable chunk of what it traded at pre-pandemic. And I think there is not like Dollarama does not even have close to the tailwinds it does today as it did in let's say 2018, 2019. If you kind of call Canada the more mature side of the business, which is it's definitely correct.

Like Dollar City is kind of the. the growth avenue, so they own around 60% of it. That's kind of Latin America, but, but not Mexico. They're launching kind of pilots. Columbia law, right? Yeah. Yeah. But I mean, they own 60% of it now.

They own 50% before, but I wouldn't doubt they keep, you know, kind of buying more and more. And I'm pretty sure that segment is growing revenue or sorry, their earnings portion is growing at like 40 some percent a year. So they kind of have a plan. They have around 730 stores and they have a plan for $1,000. by 2031. And a longer growth vector there is Australia, and this is kind of one that could be messy over the short term.

This is one that's going to cost them a bit of money to transform. I mean, they kind of have to put the dollarama model in place. So you start importing dollarama products, renovating a lot of the stores, opening new stores. You know, the near term financials will look, I don't want to say ugly, but they won't really look all that good. Guidance for next year is same store sales to be three to four percent. Market expected just below 4%. So you're looking at top end of guidance is kind of barely only hitting expectations.

So probably another bit of disappointment. But I looked at previous guidance in previous years and they've almost always come out on top. So I don't know whether they're sandbagging this or not. I don't know. Capital expenditures will double. So they're rolling out new infrastructure. A big distribution warehouse here in Calgary, I think that is going to make things more efficient. And then obviously you have Mexico and Australia, which are going to burn money for a

bit here, but the company, like, if you compare them to other stores, like dollar stores, like if we look to Dollar Tree, let's just say, Dollarama has like triple, triple the operating margins. Like, their operating margins are 25, 26 percent, which is crazy. I mean, that's crazy. The margins on this business are unbelievable. And I think they, the gross margin profile is amazing. And they just, like, I think they do it because they, they limit skews. like they don't carry a ton of product,

they source it well. And yeah, like 25% operating margins on like a defensive retailer is, is crazy. I don't know what Loblaws would be. They would be in probably single digits, I want to guess, maybe like low double digits.

But yeah, it's, it's, I mean, a business model is all about, I remember reading that, but if you think about dollarama for a second and you just think,

okay, like, what did they have a peanut for peanut butter? they'll have like usually just one option. One, right? Yeah. Yeah, they just have for a lot of stuff, like they might have different options for chips, for example, but for a lot of categories, instead of having like, you know, 15 different

options to choose from per peanut butter, they just focus on one and that simplifies a whole, a big part of the business for them. Yeah, yeah. Fewer products. It makes it more cost effective, yeah. But I just think like overall, if you think it, if you, it's kind of tricky right now because if you do think it was a weather-related event, I mean, it looks pretty solid because it should rebound next quarter. But like, if you're hesitant as to whether or not it was kind of an

excuse and you want to wait until next quarter's earnings and it does turn out to be a one-off, it's probably going higher than what it's trading at right now. Like, I think it was 166 at one point. It's rebounded a bit. But yeah, it's down from 210, I think, at the highs. And I think it was kind of like Costco at that point, it might have got a bit too ahead of itself. I mean, Costco, I think, at one time was like 55x earnings, but I don't see any of the tailwinds going away. And, you know, these pilot projects, like, it's kind of put the dollarama model in place in Canada for many, many, many years. So it's hard to imagine they can't do that in Mexico. They can't do that in Australia and kind of turn these stores around. And, and yeah, Canada's not the,

only runway, I guess now, even though there is, like, there's a lot of, they put a lot of dollaramas in like very, very tiny towns. Like, I know my one buddy lives on, in a town just off the highway up here in Alberta. And there's like maybe 3,000 people in there. And they got a dollarama in there. I mean, we got a dollarama where I live for a very long time. I mean, they don't, you know, only target major areas, which kind of expands the, the target market a lot. And yeah, They got a lot of runway, I think. I think it can make a solid case that they're probably close to saturated in Canada. Potentially, yeah.

Yeah, I think that's probably, at least for now, right? If we start seeing population growth again increasing in the next few years, then there might be some more opportunities there. But it's good that they have exposure to other markets for sure. If they weren't, I will call out that, you know, maybe this is that weather, but net new stores opened was. under 10 for the first time I can see the data go back. It was, they opened seven in the February ending quarter. And typically that number is anywhere from 15 to 20 mid,

mid 20s. So that's a pretty significant fall off. I'm looking back at the data quarter, like over 25 quarters here. And there hasn't been any under 10. So I'm not saying like, oh, this is something to freak out about. But it is something to watch.

Like what I'd like to see a outsized net new stores open next quarter because there was such a little amount last quarter. Like, oh, there was a bunch that just, you know, didn't, that are about to come online. If not, then that's the part of a broader story like that Simon's asking about with saturation and store locations. Yeah. They did, they did guide to 70 on the year, I think. Yeah. Okay. Because they had about in line with their usual.

Yeah, which usual. I mean. they might be rolling money into Australia, like pilot in Mexico, all that type of stuff. I mean, renovate those, get those up and working,

like distribution facilities, all that type of stuff. So yeah, I don't know. The store count is relatively low, but I mean, it was low in 20, 24 as well.

They opened 10 stores in the first quarter. So they do have periods of this point where store counts are, you know, new store openings are relatively low. I mean, I think you'd need to see it for a couple, of quarters, but if they're guiding to 70, I can't imagine they don't come back with a rebound. I think 50 to 70 or something.

Yeah, you also have comparable sales growth, right? Those, that was down to 1.5% the latest quarter. And every pretty much, obviously, there was a big boom after the inflation spike we saw with like hitting 17% same store sales growth. But in the last few years, it's been around 4 to 5%. and now we're getting this quarter that dropped to 1.5. So that is definitely something to keep an eye on because if you're getting potentially slower opening new stores and comparable sales growth kind of

coming down, it could be the story of not no growth, but slow decelerating growth for them. So for that they had, there was an extra week last quarter or like comparing the same. So if you kind of apples for apples, they would have grown by 2.6 or 2.7% or something. So, yeah, the 1.5 is...

Still the lowest quarter in four years, though. Yeah, even with that in mind. Yeah. Yeah. It's pretty hard to keep up with 20, 22, and 23. Like, that was when everybody was like, I can't afford my groceries anymore. And you see that, like, title shift of shopping habits.

Same thing with, I don't think Loblaws ever grew at this pace, but they were growing at a pretty crazy pace as well. Yeah, maybe I'll just say I like them much better than Adi Mautasem-Crestha, for example. Yeah. One that we've talked a lot on the podcast is because I think they're going to be struggling with a higher cost of living. And people just opting to fill their gas, like fill their car with gas and then stopping, doing the extra stop and going to a dollarama because it's just too expensive and they can't afford it for Adi Manta Estelle-Cristal. So I definitely would prefer this name over the great count. compounder that has been anima

El Mastazel Kustal over the years. Another interesting thing here. And this is just, well, I guess it's anecdotal for me in Calgary, but there is one of these things beside every movie theater in Calgary. Smart. Yeah. They go there.

They buy stuff. They shove it in their pocket and they go in the theater. It has to be strategic because it's like within walking distance of every movie theater in the city, there is a dollar. That is not a mistake. Everyone goes to Dollarama before they go to the movie theater because that's like the best way to get some cheap candy.

There are, I kid you not, this is one of the main movie theaters in the cities in Midtown is at Young and Egg in Toronto. That's like a full synaplex there. And right beside it is a dollarama. And by the way, this is one intersection, right? This is all in one intersection. There's one right beside it on the same side of the street.

and then there's also another one on the other side of the street that you have just crossed the street light and you're there. Like there are two full-sized telegrammas beside that Cineplex like a stones throw away from each other. It's hilarious. Yeah. Yeah, the one I go to in Ottawa has one too. So it's not. So it's not just me. Yeah.

It's not just you. So I think they're strategic about that. Yeah. That's all I got. What's your go-to? like you're going to the movie theater what's the i just buy the popcorn yeah i mean wife the wife is a candy person so we we hit up the dollarama but i just buy the popcorn i support the theater yeah yeah good on support synaplex yeah wow you're doing god's work over there yeah oh man you can't

i just need to crunch into like m&m peanut emms you know like i need some chocolate you got to hit up dollarama yeah i do i do every time yeah like i'm going straight for the M&Ms, maybe some candy if I'm feeling crazy, maybe some Reese's cups, but no, it's got to be some chocolate for sure. Thanks for listening, guys. We appreciate you. And yeah, we'll be here every quarter. So the boys will be back. It's already scheduled. It's already scheduled? Good. That'll be looking at Q3. Wait, so wait, we just ended Q1. One. Today's the first day of Q2. So this is good timing. And so then we'll, we'll, be back for like the first day of Q3.

Nothing's going to happen between now and then, right? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. Nothing. Yeah. Just a few headlines. It's sure. It's going to be some more AI news than Orange Men, you know, making some wild claims to talk about.

It's always something. Appreciate you guys. Tune in. Take care. The Canadian Investor Podcast should not be construed as investment or financial advice. The host and guests featured may own securities or assets discussed on this podcast. Always do your own due diligence or consult with a financial professional before making any financial or investment decisions.