The Canadian Investor - 5 Canadian Stocks That Won’t Feel the Impact of Tariffs

Episode Date: March 10, 2025

The trade war between Canada and the U.S. is evolving fast, and its impact on investors is undeniable. In this episode, we break down the latest developments, including the U.S. granting automakers a ...temporary exemption and potential carve-outs for agricultural products. Simon shares his critical take on the Canadian government’s counter-tariffs and why they could hit the most vulnerable Canadians hardest. We also discuss the broader market implications—how uncertainty leads to hesitation in home purchases, business investments, and overall economic activity. But where there’s uncertainty, there’s opportunity. We look at TFII and BRP, two beaten-down stocks that might be worth watching, and highlight five Canadian stocks that should see little impact from tariffs on their businesses. Finally, we shift gears to the state of retail investing, looking at how the rise of DIY investors post-2020 has shaped risk-taking behavior. Are retail investors making smarter moves, or are we heading toward more speculation with the rise of event contracts and private equity products?   Tickets of stocks/ETFs discussed: AEM.TO, ABX.TO, FNV.TO, WPM.TO, QSR.TO, FTS.TO, IFC.TO, L.TO Check out our portfolio by going to Jointci.com Our Website Canadian Investor Podcast Network Twitter: @cdn_investing Simon’s twitter: @Fiat_Iceberg Braden’s twitter: @BradoCapital Dan’s Twitter: @stocktrades_ca Want to learn more about Real Estate Investing? Check out the Canadian Real Estate Investor Podcast! Apple Podcast - The Canadian Real Estate Investor  Spotify - The Canadian Real Estate Investor  Web player - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Asset Allocation ETFs | BMO Global Asset Management Sign up for Finchat.io for free to get easy access to global stock coverage and powerful AI investing tools. Register for EQ Bank, the seamless digital banking experience with better rates and no nonsense.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Starting point is 00:01:13 This is the Canadian investor where you take control of your own portfolio and gain the confidence you need to succeed in the markets. Hosted by Brayden Dennis and Simon Bélanger. The Canadian investor podcast. Welcome to the show. My name is Brayden Dennis. As always joined by the jacked, Simon Bélanger.
Starting point is 00:01:37 Jacked because I saw that new home gym you got there. I saw your video, looks sick dude. Yeah, I'm pretty pumped about it. So I've been using it a little bit. My back's doing better, so I'm actually able to lift bigger weights. And it's just awesome when you have kids to be able to wake up a bit early, 5 a.m.,
Starting point is 00:01:57 take a coffee, get some caffeine in, go to the gym. It's great if you really wanna get workouts in. I feel like that's how you have to do it when you have kids. Yeah, it's a, well, good on you, man. Those dumbbells getting tariffed or what? Probably, yeah. I think, I know, it's a good segue. I see what you did there.
Starting point is 00:02:14 So they will, I'm assuming it would have been more expensive to buy if we bought them now because they came at a company, for the most part was from the US. They had some really good quality and reasonable prices. Yeah, we should probably caveat our discussion today. It is Thursday, March 6th. We have to timestamp everything now, I feel like here in twenty twenty five.
Starting point is 00:02:41 We're going to talk a little bit about kind of the latest updates. You're going to talk about some Canadian stocks that could see some impact and some that should see very little impact from tariffs. And then I'm gonna talk about the state of retail investing. But first off, out of the gate here, a buddy of mine who runs a Vancouver based company called Wilbur Budget, he sent me this
Starting point is 00:03:03 because they run surveys inside their app. So they interviewed 750 Canadians. And the question was, which of the following factors do you believe will have the largest impact on the investment climate for Canadians in 2025? The number one answer was trade tensions between Canada and the US at 62%. So it looked like people could pick multiple. They didn't have to just pick one, but 62% of respondents said that it would have their largest impact.
Starting point is 00:03:40 Inflation was next, then interest rates, and then the Canadian federal election to round out the top four. So, you know, pretty interesting, you know, you probably kind of stack rank these in multiple different ways, depending on your opinion on the state, but I think that those are probably four kind of very pertinent topics here
Starting point is 00:04:03 going through the rest of the year. Yeah, I would actually personally put the Canada here going through the rest of the year. Yeah, I would actually personally put the Canada trade tensions with the US and the Canadian federal election almost in one because they're very intertwined one another. We've seen how the polls have kind of shifted a whole lot ever since the tariff threats have become more and more real and obviously with the start this week effective on Tuesday, March 4th. So I can see those being personally,
Starting point is 00:04:27 the way I view it is those two are very intertwined together. Yeah, it feels to me like it's a buildup of a lot of people becoming one topic voters. What, there's a real, there's a good term for that. I can't think. Single issue voters. Single issue voters, thank you. I have a feeling that that's gonna be, you know,
Starting point is 00:04:46 bringing us to a lot of single issue voters on this topic, which, you know, hard to argue with that logic, but let's not forget, we have a lot to do and to fix at home that has nothing to do with the US. And so I wanna remind folks that yes, you know, we gotta look south of the border and we have to do what's right best for the country here in this situation. But we got a lot of other things we got to focus on in this country as well.
Starting point is 00:05:15 One good silver lining that I saw, it's been talked in the news, but there seems to be agreement now across provinces. Most of the major provinces in Canada are agreeing to lift some, a lot of the trade barriers between the provinces. Inter province tax. Exactly. So I think that is, I guess a silver lining that
Starting point is 00:05:34 it took these kind of trade tensions with the US to wake premiers up and the federal government to say, you know what, this is a low low hanging fruit why are we not making progress on this and it looks like it's it's happening so I think that's a really positive note of having free trade within Canada more trade within provinces I think one of the things is like alcohol for example in Ontario we're both from here I mean I rarely see wine from anywhere else in Canada. It's just Ontario wines and then international wines and apparently now there's going to be more
Starting point is 00:06:13 like BC wines available in Ontario or different industries or professional services that are accredited in a province or certified in a province, I think they're going to be able to more easily work in other provinces. These are all, in my view, good things. I don't really see the downside with that. It does create encouraged free trade within Canada, which I think is really good. Growing up, my dad used to say the term, never waste a good crisis a lot. And that to me rings true really well here, right? It's like, never waste a good crisis. There's an opportunity here for us to get
Starting point is 00:06:56 the proper kick in the butt here. Inter-provincial tax is a very good example here. And look, there's a lot of things that just, this has nothing to do with Canada. This is just a broad statement. It takes a breaking point to challenge the status quo in almost everything that humans assemble, whether it's businesses, government, whatever it is.
Starting point is 00:07:22 Like there has to be some sort of breaking point to challenge the status quo. And those kinds of resets are usually quite healthy and good for efficiency. No, exactly. And look, it's fast moving and there's, I mean, it feels like you're, you're seeing in one day, the type of information or movement that you'd see in several weeks or months, it's happening in a day. So it's a bit crazy what's happening. But clearly even since Tuesday, we're recording on Thursday,
Starting point is 00:07:50 there has been some movement on the tariffs. So apparently Trump lifted the or put a pause on the tariffs for auto makers to grant them an exemption over 30 days. There's talk now for agricultural products, which I'm hoping if that comes through that Canada will also follow suit because I've been pretty vocal on that, that I think it's a mistake to do tariffs on agricultural products coming from the US, especially when it comes to produce. It will hurt the most vulnerable in Canada the most. And that's been, I've been steadfast on that.
Starting point is 00:08:28 I was sad to see that those type of tariffs would be going in place. So that is one thing that I do hope that is lifted so that consumers in general don't see higher food prices. Well, I mean, we'll probably see higher food prices one way or another, but clearly not as big of a jump. And I've seen a lot of people on Twitter say like, oh, this will only last for a short period of time and the impact won't be important. The problem with that kind of mentality is sure, obviously, if the trade war goes on
Starting point is 00:08:59 for a year, it's going to have a much more pronounced impact than a week. That's clear. But just the uncertainty that it creates, even if it only lasts a week or a few weeks, it just creates so much uncertainty. If you're a consumer, the best example here, if you were thinking of buying a house this spring, but now you're concerned that you've got an increased chance of being laid off, like are you really going to go ahead and make that purchase? Probably not. You'll probably think about it twice if you think there's a risk of
Starting point is 00:09:30 losing income and Braden you own the business. Like you know we share the podcast too and maybe those are not the type of businesses as impacted but if you're a business producing goods in Canada or the US do you really want to be making massive investments right now? You might still invest but you might scale it back and that's probably something because who wants to be investing when there's so much uncertainty and you're definitely starting to see that with certain types of businesses I think too that our listeners and you know well I know pretty pretty well to to that come to mind is TFI and BRP they've been in a
Starting point is 00:10:11 World the hurt let's just be very honest here If you're looking at I'm showing a chart here on finch had the drawdowns over the last year are just massive If you're looking even as the last six months they're pretty substantial as well so if you're looking at BRP over the last year it's looking at drawdowns of around 44% and TFI 46% I mean TFI has been mostly in the last month. These drawdowns. Very steep cliff after their latest earnings results. Yeah exactly and look I'm not surprised it's pretty
Starting point is 00:10:47 simple there's a whole lot of uncertainty when it comes to tariffs trade war commerce within North America which is clearly impacting these two businesses specifically but then these businesses are also dependent on the economy and these tariffs there just creates a whole lot of uncertainty in terms of the economy going forward in the at the very least a short to medium term and even longer term right if we're seeing a structural shift in how we do business in North America they may still thrive is just creates that additional uncertainty and those are two of the names that I wanted to highlight I don't think you have to look very far to find other names that have been pretty impacted by
Starting point is 00:11:31 the trade war and what's happening between Canada, the US and Mexico. Let's not forget Mexico as well as had an impact on that too. And since Trump, which I think is pretty interesting, so remember when Trump got elected, the markets were like just your for it. It was like, okay, deregulations, the economy is going to be booming. And you're seeing here on Finch ad, you got a big pop pretty early on, kept going for the most part until I would say better part of I guess up until just a month month and a half ago it's been up and down a little bit but you've pretty much at this point let go of most of the gains that we had seen with the S&P 500 since the Trump election so a lot of people were
Starting point is 00:12:20 thinking that yes it just number would go up. But I think a lot of investors right now are just realizing that there's just going to be a lot of volatility, not only down, up as well. And I mean, we've been seeing it, if you've been paying attention to the markets, it's pretty been pretty common. You have one day it'll start down like 2% and then finishes the day up 1% or vice versa, right? CEO Brian Cornell of Target said, expect price increases across most items at Target in the next few days. Yeah. So, I mean, listen to what the big box retailers are saying.
Starting point is 00:12:57 I mean, I've been saying this over and over again. Say it with me, folks. Tariffs are inflationary. Of course. Yeah. Will it be inflationary for the whole economy? I mean, there's so much debate. I've been listening to people that are economists, people that have 20, 30, 40 years experience, people that have looked at history. I mean, it's pretty divided. I would say for the most part. Yes, people say it is inflationary What is hard to gauge is will people?
Starting point is 00:13:30 Pay those higher prices, but scale back their overall spending and I think That is probably the question is overall will inflation go up or you're just gonna see reduced spending which will lead to lower economic growth It's hard to say I think this is a bit unprecedented in the form. We're seeing it so I think we're we're probably gonna look back in 10 or 15 years at this period and Take a lot of learnings. Yeah, definitely I Got a top ticked TFI, but oh man, I'm taking a bath on BRP here. It's a tough stock to own right now.
Starting point is 00:14:10 It's, of course, demand down, guidance is down, estimates for top line are down. I guess the thing is, when you own these types of cyclical names, don't get surprised when they act like cyclicals. Yeah, that's a good point. You know, like, I think that that's a pretty obvious statement to make, but you know, at the same time,
Starting point is 00:14:38 maybe not realistic for a lot of investors to really brace for when they own the stock, when times are good, when they're in the cycle, when the cycle does go the other way. Now, of course, you have this other geopolitical thing on top of it that's making it even a more difficult situation for the business, but like gross profit is up on a two-year stack,
Starting point is 00:15:02 even with the downward guide. So, I mean, you got to own these things with a pretty clear thesis and the clue, the thesis can't be the cycle remains hot for 20 years. Like that, that can't be the thesis. The thesis has to be something, you know, gaining market share from competitors. Overall, uh, you know, you think that the, the think that the net in and out of cycle recreational products is gonna be a good place to be for the next several decades.
Starting point is 00:15:34 So that's just my reminder to people who own cyclicals, don't be surprised when there's a cycle. That's literally what you signed up for, being an equity holder. Yeah, and I feel for BRP, right? We've covered them, Dan and I, on earnings. And I think they had like a stretch of like four quarters in a row where they lowered their guidance. But to, I'll defend them in saying like, look, I mean, clearly it's super hard for them to provide guidance right now. I think the only thing I may push back against their revised guidance is
Starting point is 00:16:05 maybe just lift guidance right now. Maybe it's just too difficult to provide guidance and instead of lowering you just straightforward with investors. Remember COVID at the start, companies were just waving guidance altogether. It may be worthwhile to just say, you know what, we until further notice we're not putting any guidance just because we are just unsure the business is in good standing. We're gonna come through this, like reassure investors, but at the same time, I mean, how can you predict where these kind of sales will be going?
Starting point is 00:16:38 I mean, it would be, I wouldn't, I do not envy them. Like it would be so hard to predict. Yeah. And whether it's guidance or forward estimates kind of being rev... Like when you see revision estimates, one thing I like about the estimates tab on FinChat is you can see the trend of revision history.
Starting point is 00:16:55 So you get something like Nvidia, which is basically just like the lines keep stacking higher on top of each other as guides keep, or estimates keep getting revised higher and higher. This is the opposite where revisions keep getting knocked lower and lower and lower. Like obviously not a type of chart you wanna see, but you know, this is the kind of thing
Starting point is 00:17:17 that you have to brace for when you own equities. Like just- Number doesn't always go up. Yeah, the future is unknowable and number doesn't always go up Well, even the SMP right? I think it's it's not quite in correction territory, but it's approaching that's for sure I was looking at was what 56 around there and I think it peaked around 6,000 maybe slightly higher so it's not that far off from a correction 6,000, maybe slightly higher. So it's not that far off from a correction.
Starting point is 00:17:47 Whether it's a ski trip to Whistler, a business trip, or a summer getaway in Western Canada, one thing's for sure, when I travel, I wanna stay somewhere that feels like home. That's why I always book Airbnbs. And while I'm away, my place could be earning me some extra income as an Airbnb too. It just sits empty while I'm away, so why not put it to work?
Starting point is 00:18:06 I've also thought about hiring a co-host from Airbnb's new co-hosting network. If hosting sounds overwhelming, a co-host makes it easy. A local vetted co-host can manage everything for you from creating your listing, handling reservations, and even welcoming guests. Turn your home into a way to earn extra income while you're away and it's empty.
Starting point is 00:18:27 Find a co-host at airbnb.ca forward slash host. As do-it-yourself investors, we want to keep our fees low. That's why Simone and I have been using Questrade as our online broker for so many years now. Questrade is Canada's number one rated online broker by MoneySense. And with them, you can buy all North American ETFs, not just a few select ones, all commission free, so that you can choose the ETFs that you want. And they charge no annual RSP or TFSA account fees.
Starting point is 00:19:00 They have an award winning customer service team with real people that are ready to help if you have questions along the way. As a customer myself, I've been impressed with Questrade's customer service. Whenever I call or email, every support rep is very knowledgeable and they get exactly what I need done quickly. Switch for free today and keep more of your money. Visit questrade.com for details. That is questrade.com for details. That is questrade.com.
Starting point is 00:19:28 Calling all DIY do-it-yourself investors, Blossom is an essential app for you. It has been blowing up with now more than 50,000 Canadians plus and growing who are using the app. Every time I go on there, I am shocked. The engagement is amazing. This is a really vibrant community that they're building. And people share their portfolios, their trades, their investment ideas in real time.
Starting point is 00:19:54 And it's all built on the concept of transparency because brokerage accounts are linked. And then once you link your brokerage account, you can get in-depth portfolio insights, track your dividends, and there's other stuff like learning, Duolingo-style education lessons that are completely free. You can search up Blossom Social in the App Store and join the community today. I'm on there, I encourage you go on there and follow me,
Starting point is 00:20:18 search me up, some of the YouTubers and influencers and podcasters that you might know, I bet you they're already on there. People are just on there talking, sharing their investment ideas and using the analytics tools. So go ahead, blossom social in the app store and I'll see you there. I have a great stat for you
Starting point is 00:20:36 that I just saw this morning from Redholds. Okay, awesome. Oh yes, I just got it here. The S&P has had 91 sell-offs of 5% or more since 1950. About a third of them, so call it 30 of them, are blips on the radar, drop smaller than 10%, and last less than a month. Interesting.
Starting point is 00:21:04 So one third of the 91 sell-offs of 5% or more were basically just like nothing burgers. Yeah. And then I guess two thirds were into correction territory. And then a few were just a handful are like what we call crashes of 20% or more based on the data here, which is interesting, but you know, when you zoom out to 1950, they all look like nothing. Yeah, exactly.
Starting point is 00:21:34 That's it. And I mean, I think expect, I would say for this year, just I wouldn't be surprised if we get a few of those. That's just how I think how volatile it will be. So I think it's just important for people to understand, like just be ready for swings. I think it's just going to happen. And I'm not saying just down swings or could be up,
Starting point is 00:21:54 it could be up and down. And I think that's important because a lot people tend to think about volatility just on the downside. I think we're gonna see a whole lot of upside and that side. So, all right, you got five stocks to go through here on Names that you think would see little am I reading this right little impact. Yeah, exactly I think and when I say little impact
Starting point is 00:22:17 I'm really talking about their business and the results and clearly some of these name will see some impact But there's really two main themes here. These are businesses that are for the most part tend to operate in sectors that are non-discretionary. So things that people need to have, it's not a nice to have type of deal. And with these companies, you're putting more emphasis obviously on high floors for your investments versus high ceilings. So these are businesses that may not provide, that will likely not provide 20-30% returns
Starting point is 00:22:53 or multi-baggers, but they're less likely to have massive drawdowns in a uncertain environment like we have right now. And of course, the tariff file will move rapidly so who knows how long they last but again these are businesses that are more I think more on the defensive end of stocks for the most part so the first one would be Loblaws. I think this one is pretty obvious. I took Loblaws but any of the grocers in Canada should perform pretty well just Loblaws tends to be the best run of the grocers in Canada and they said on their latest earnings call that about 10% of their cost of goods sold come from the US and the majority of that 10% is produce.
Starting point is 00:23:36 And they said they'd be able to mitigate the about half of the increases associated with that with different suppliers in different countries, for example. Now, if there's increased costs, the reality is the majority of that will be passed on to consumers. So I don't expect their margins to be too impacted. The other thing that Loblaws has working for itself is for some alternatives, they have their in-house brand so think no name as a
Starting point is 00:24:05 really value option or president choice that is a still decent value but not as much as the no name I would say and they've been doubling down on their discount chain so that's pretty much the only thing they've been opening in terms of new stores they converted all their Quebec stores to the maxi chain which is their discount chain so all of their Loblaws and Provigos in Quebec have been converted to that. You're probably not going to get any kind of discount buying this company because I'm talking about it but a lot of investors are viewing Loblaws exactly like that so you're not gonna see any type of big pullback in my opinion, you might, but I don't think you will.
Starting point is 00:24:48 And on top of this, you do get a small 1.2% dividend that is well covered by free cashflow. So that's the first name, any comments on that? Or you agree with my assessment? Yeah, everything looks good to be honest. I'm looking at, I've been graphing LaBla's gross margin on my other screen. So I'm not gonna pretend I know what you said, but I am blown away by the consistent growth
Starting point is 00:25:14 of margins across the board. And obviously, you know, they get a lot of heat for price fixing this, that, and the other thing that folks come at them for, but I don't think they get really enough credit for the mix that they've also done. You mentioned those in-house brands, the pharmacy, other things that they've done efficiency-wise.
Starting point is 00:25:38 Yes, I'm sure they're charging more than most grocery stores, but at the same time, just unbelievable execution Say what you will about Loblaws and what you whatever your opinion about them and the ownership group is as a business person Exactly, that's it. And that's what I'm focusing on here. So it's really about you know, the businesses The second one is intact financial tickerTO. I haven't talked much about them. Obviously insurers are extremely complex to understand, to fully understand. I understand them like, you know, a decent amount, but they are very complex. Intac has one, has been one of the best, if not the best performing insurer in Canada for a long period of time.
Starting point is 00:26:23 There's other insurers too, like Emmanuel Life, Canada Life, Sun Life for example that are all publicly listed but at the end of the day people, companies, individuals, companies need to have insurance policies on various things and despite tariffs they're not likely to cancel. Those now they may see some indirect impacts on from tariffs if the cost of replacement goes up. So if you on from tariffs if the cost of replacement goes up. So if you total your car and the cost of the car is up 10-15% because of tariffs then obviously that's going to have an impact on intact financial. But for the most part these policies renew relatively
Starting point is 00:27:00 frequently so they would be able to increase the price of their policies to reflect those additional costs. So that's why I think they'll be able to pass that on to the consumer. So it's not to say there won't be any impact, but I don't think there's going to be any major impact to their actual business and profitability. And Intac also pays a dividend which currently yields 1.8%. This is the ultimate, they can't keep getting away with this TSX stock. Because I'm always just so shocked
Starting point is 00:27:34 at the consistent outperformance. Yes, I know that they're like a really well-known insurance business. They have the different brands underneath them. I personally use Bel Air Direct, which is like kind of like their cheap auto insurance. Yeah, I do as well. So I shout out to my brother-in-law that works for them.
Starting point is 00:27:53 Oh, nice. Dude, I've never been able to find anyone that beats their rates, honestly. No, exactly. It's nice because you deal directly with them. So yeah, I use them as well. Yeah, it's just easy. Like you can get it going really quickly. It sounds like an ad for Bel Air. It's nice because you deal directly with them. So yeah, I use them as well. Yeah, I switched. It's just easy.
Starting point is 00:28:05 Like you can get it going really quickly. This sounds like an ad for Bel Air. It's not. Yeah, they're not. Yeah, they're not. Hey, Bel Air, it's buzzed to the pot. But I mean, look at the consistent performance. Like a stock is compounded at nearly, you know,
Starting point is 00:28:19 since 2013, I just pulled up a random arbitrary number here on Finchette. Total return, including dividends, compounded at 17 and a half percent Yeah, this is the ultimate they can't keep getting away with this stock. It just keeps working Yeah, maybe it's uh, it's one that Berkshire all end up by who knows It is a beautiful beautiful stock chart. It had to it would have to be a better bargain than that I don't think I don't think Buffett would, even if he likes the business, he would probably think it's too highly prized.
Starting point is 00:28:51 But yeah, there's- You're sharing your screen. Stay there, because you can't see market cap. What do you, just off the top of your head, what do you think is the market cap? Don't scroll up. What do you think the market cap of Intact is? I haven't looked at it in so long.
Starting point is 00:29:04 I don't know. I'd be like maybe 20 billion. 51. Oh wow, okay. Yeah, I also would have said 20. Like this thing just keeps getting it done. Yeah, that's crazy. And even it compares like if you're looking over the five years, I mean, it's right in line with the S&P 500.
Starting point is 00:29:26 So that's pretty impressive. Yeah, for a Canadian insurer, that's pretty impressive. It's actually outperformed it by 4%. Yeah, and it's probably outperformed more if you go longer time scale than just five years. Yeah, no, so this is one obviously, and when I say a company and I'm talking oftentimes like I've said it already right like yes I spoke about an intag but you can also make that thesis for other insurers
Starting point is 00:29:52 and the next one is Fortis ticker FTS.TO again this is a utility it's just an example because I know they're I don't know them super well but I know them well enough to know they're pretty well run utility. Utilities in general should do well in this type of environment because again, they provide essential services to individual and businesses. The bonus with utilities and this one of course is you get a pretty high dividend yield. So for income seekers, that is something if the stability of having a dividend coming in and usually the utilities tend to have quite stable dividend, don't
Starting point is 00:30:31 take this as the dividend being guaranteed, it is not. The growth likely won't be huge, and they are levered, but they are also very regulated. So you're definitely not looking at amazing growth, but when you're looking to be a bit more defensive, a utility like Fortis is definitely something to consider. It's a premier utility. That's my only thoughts. Okay. Whether it's a ski trip to Whistler,
Starting point is 00:31:01 a business trip or a summer getaway in Western Canada, one thing's for sure. When I travel, I want to stay somewhere that feels like home. That's why I always book Airbnbs. And while I'm away, my place could be earning me some extra income as an Airbnb too. It just sits empty while I'm away, so why not put it to work? I've also thought about hiring a co-host from Airbnb's new co-hosting network. If hosting sounds overwhelming, a co-host makes it easy.
Starting point is 00:31:27 A local vetted co-host can manage everything for you from creating your listing, handling reservations, and even welcoming guests. Turn your home into a way to earn extra income while you're away and it's empty. Find a co-host at airbnb.ca forward slash host. As do-it-yourself investors investors we want to keep our fees low. That's why Simone and I have been using Questrade as our online broker for so many years now. Questrade is Canada's number one rated online
Starting point is 00:31:57 broker by money sense and with them you can buy all North American ETFs not just a few select ones all commission free so that you can choose American ETFs, not just a few select ones, all commission free, so that you can choose the ETFs that you want. And they charge no annual RSP or TFSA account fees. They have an award winning customer service team with real people that are ready to help if you have questions along the way. As a customer myself, I've been impressed with Questrade's customer service. Whenever I call or email, every support rep is very knowledgeable
Starting point is 00:32:26 And they get exactly what I need done quickly. Switch for free today and keep more of your money Visit questrade.com for details. That is questrade.com Calling all DIY do-it-yourself investors, Blossom is an essential app for you. It has been blowing up with now more than 50,000 Canadians plus and growing who are using the app. Every time I go on there, I am shocked.
Starting point is 00:32:57 The engagement is amazing. This is a really vibrant community that they're building. And people share their portfolios, their trades, their investment ideas in real time. And it's all built on the concept of transparency because brokerage accounts are linked. And then once you link your brokerage account, you can get in-depth portfolio insights,
Starting point is 00:33:15 track your dividends, and there's other stuff like learning, duolingo-style education lessons that are completely free. You can search up Blossom Social in the App Store and join the community today. I'm on there, I encourage you go on there and follow me, search me up, some of the YouTubers and influencers and podcasters that you might know,
Starting point is 00:33:35 I bet you they're already on there. People are just on there talking, sharing their investment ideas and using the analytics tools. So go ahead, Blossom Social in the App Store and I'll see you there. Now the next one, next one I will elaborate a little bit on. So gold miners or streamers and the reason I want to talk about these is they have actually, they've done quite well over some pretty long period of time now. It's been the three years and five years as well. I'm gonna pull some chart here and I'm showing the GLD and SPY and GDX as well
Starting point is 00:34:13 from VanEck the reason I'm not like BMO who's our sponsor has some really good options but for example their bullion ETF for gold only started trading a year ago so it's not super useful if I'm trying to show the three, five years and one year clearly. But what you start looking at is over five years, the S&P 500 has done much better than gold and gold miners. You're looking at 108% in terms of return for the S&P and you're looking at 71% for gold and 55% for gold miners.
Starting point is 00:34:48 But then if you look at the three years, it's neck and neck between the S&P 500 and gold and gold miners are a bit behind at 31%. And then if you start looking at the one year, gold and gold miners have completely crushed the S&P 500. You're looking at gold miners 49%, gold at 37%, and the S&P 500 at 16.4%. I know I've been beating this drum for over a year now. Clearly if people would have listened, they would have done pretty well with gold during that period of time. But the reason why I think it's really interesting to look at these is because they should not be too impacted by tariffs and I was talking about these charts thinking I was
Starting point is 00:35:32 showing my screen but I wasn't but for people who are watching on Joint TCI they'll be able to see it now and look my understanding is gold is likely is going to be tariffed. Like it's not been exempted. So it's going to be tariffed in the US. But the reason why I don't think there's going to be a big impact is there has been a massive increase in global demand for gold. So ex US. So even if there is that 25% tariff on it, I just don't think it's going to have a major impact on gold miners
Starting point is 00:36:02 and the price of gold. And according to the World Gold Council, 2024 saw record high demand for gold in big part led by central banks around the world who want to diversify away from US treasuries. They still, whether you look at China, whether you look at all the major central banks, they still own a lot of US treasuries, but for them this is an alternative of a safe asset that essentially is not controlled by anyone. The miners are definitely very attractive because if I go back to the five-year chart, the miners have really underperformed the price of gold, even looking at the three years. So they're definitely behind and typically when
Starting point is 00:36:46 gold, even looking at the three years. So they're definitely behind. And typically when gold starts going up in price, miners end up like doing actually better than the price of gold. So there is a case to be made that they should still have some upside left here, even if gold doesn't keep increasing in price, which I think there's a good chance that it will keep increasing in price just because it's seen as a safe asset. And more and more people are coming a bit nervous about holding longer term US bonds, US government bonds. And this is a viable alternative. Clearly it does not pay you any coupon, any interest, of course. That is something to take into account. And a lot of people won't switch all of their bonds for gold, clearly. But you know, it's just incremental changes. Whether you have before you had 0% and now it's 5% of your portfolio. If you start seeing a lot of investors doing that and a lot of
Starting point is 00:37:40 different institutions starting to incorporate gold into their portfolios then you can definitely see those gaining in price and Canada is rich in gold miners. Like let's be honest there's a lot of them in Canada and some names to consider here. Agnico Eagle Mines ticker AEM.TO, bear gold, ABX.TO. Most of them are dual listed by the way. Canada, US some are even listed in like Australia and other countries as well. Franco Nevada, one that I own. FNV.TO. Wheaton Precious Metal. WPM.TO. The last two are streamers so they're a bit different than miners. They have less less cost than miners. So they're basically they finance miners and then they get a royalty in exchange for financing those miners
Starting point is 00:38:27 So that's they're one of the reason I own Franco, Nevada But it's been one of my best investments Franco, Nevada since I started my positions about six months ago I think it's up like 30 something percent. So it's performed pretty well again Who knows where the future is going? But they are not likely to be heavily impacted because there's so much demand for gold around the globe, even if you slap those 25% tariff from the US. Good job on the gold call. I'll give you your flowers there. I don't, I still don't understand
Starting point is 00:39:00 it and that's okay. That is okay. But well done. Okay, thank you. But no, that, oh actually, I thought that was it, but I do have one last name here. This one people may push back a little bit, but I've talked about them before, restaurant brand international, qsr.to is the ticker. For those not familiar with the name, they own some, They own a very iconic Canadian brand, so Tim Hortons. They're the company that owns that. It's about 50% of their revenue. They own Burger King, Popeyes, and Firehouse Sub, in order of importance, the ones I named here. Now they might see some price increases as a
Starting point is 00:39:41 result of tariff, especially if it's on agricultural products and food food but I think they'll largely be able to pass on to consumers because their competitors will also have their increased costs and I've said it time and time again if you're someone that went regularly to a Starbucks for example you may like their coffee better than Tim Morton's you may like their lattes better but if you want to still have that treat of having the food already prepared for you, being able to pick up that quick serve option, but you want to spend less,
Starting point is 00:40:16 then going to a Tim Morton's is a logical option. If you don't want to make everything at home, then you downgrade to a more affordable version. Even if their prices go up a little bit, I think they'll still be able to pass on to the consumer because they'll still be able to be much cheaper than other alternatives out there. And it's the same thing that Walmart is seeing, right? They've mentioned that they're seeing more and more household and the hundred thousand
Starting point is 00:40:42 plus household income switching over to Walmart because they're finding better value and people downgrade when they're trying to save money and the budget becomes tighter. And the last thing here is they're paying a nice dividend yielding 4%. Payout ratio is very reasonable, free cash flow payout ratio of 80% and which by the way, I love those new custom metrics because now I created one for free cash flow payout ratio, which is not a common metric, but I like to use it. So I have it now readily available for everything. But it's another one to consider for that reason.
Starting point is 00:41:21 And again, it wasn't to say that they won't be impacted at all but I think their businesses will have little impact because they'll be able to keep their margins intact and pass that on to the consumer. Tim Hortons is finally bringing back actual roll up the rim. Are they? Not on the app? Not on the... that was the dumbest idea possible. I get it, they wanna have the app downloads. You want people in your ecosystem. I get it.
Starting point is 00:41:49 But my God, did they blunder this. Roll Up The Rim was just such an instant classic success. And you saw it in their results. And you rolled up the rim, everyone knows it. You roll up the cup, You see what's under there. There's that instant endorphin dopamine kick that they just completely blundered. So they haven't actually had the roll up cups, I think in six years, if I'm seeing this correctly, which feels about right.
Starting point is 00:42:20 It feels like it's been a long time since they've actually had that good, good move bringing you back Don't know why they ever got rid of it that made no and why they kept it gone for so long Why it remains a mystery to me, but I'm glad they're course correcting. Do you want some breaking news? What is it? So who knows what will happen with Canada, but I just saw my watch I got beef with that my Apple watch that apparently Trump is beef with my Apple watch that apparently Trump is lifting suspending tariffs on most Mexican goods until April 2nd following talks with their president. So we'll see. We'll see. Canada still we'll see. But we're gonna get rolled back throat. You know what? Like my fear is that
Starting point is 00:43:02 that you know this happens again and just... Well, the uncertainty, yeah, that's what it is. This nonstop cat and mouse garbage, and he just loves the attention and the television and the, you know, like, it's the apprentice. That's what it is, you know? It's the big stage. We're living a reality show.
Starting point is 00:43:25 It's so tiring. I mean, I'm laughing, it's not funny, but it's just like, I don't know what else to say. Like, it's just, I mean. He's the content president. He's the content president. That's what it is. And look, I think the US,
Starting point is 00:43:41 and especially, you know I'm a big fan of Ray Dalio. I've read like almost everything that he's put out and I whenever I see him on that He was been on the podcast. I go and listen to him and I encourage everyone to do so. He's very very knowledgeable relies on data and He's had some pretty harsh words like for the US but the world in general that we have to make some big changes. If not, history will repeat itself and we'll get into a death spiral for all the major countries and whether Trump and his administration are trying to tackle that, I think they're not going to amount to anything until they look at the big expense items like Doge.
Starting point is 00:44:24 It's all nice and dandy, but if you don't start looking. Like military? Military, Medicare, and Social Security. Those are the big three that take up most of the budget, and they have massive liabilities, especially for Social Security. So if they don't start looking at that,
Starting point is 00:44:40 I mean, it's just gonna be peanuts, but I digress, yeah. Yeah, it's crazy you get to such a large, large scale where, you know, save a few billion here, a few billion there, it doesn't even matter. Like that's really depressing, honestly. Yeah, yeah, exactly. Cause those should be big wins. And they do stack up, but yeah.
Starting point is 00:45:04 But it's hard to know what their real end game is. I think I've heard so many different things from him, from his administration, from people that were consulted, and people will say, oh, that's their goal, and then something happens a few days later, and it's like, oh, maybe it wasn't their goal. It's really hard to figure out
Starting point is 00:45:21 what they're trying to achieve. I am not American, they can do what they want, but I am also pro small government. I am unapologetically pro small government as well. And you know, we I'd like a similar approach to be done here. Now. I'm pro living within our means. That's just, that's been my stand. Balance a budget.
Starting point is 00:45:52 You can spend on whatever you want. Just make sure the budget is balanced. Fair enough, we'll leave it at that. All right, the state of retail investing. The state of retail, Simon. Okay, so it's been a little while since we did a little check-in. You know, when I think of retail investing as a term,
Starting point is 00:46:13 it feels a little talk downy, a talk down at you a little bit. You know, it's like, here's professional investors, they do it full-time, and then there's like retail investors who are just degenerate gambler idiots. There are some of those, but that's not how I like to characterize this term. So but call it the state of retail investing. But there's a lot of folks who listen to this podcast,
Starting point is 00:46:38 even you and I, that we are quote unquote, retail investors. But we are really disciplined, self-directed investors managing our own money and frankly doing pretty damn good at it too. And the rise of this type of persona is no secret. JP Morgan said that the percentage of individuals moving money from a checking account to a brokerage account was four times higher than preceding years. Don't have data on that as of the most recent years, but what I do have data in on is retail flows to ETFs still red hot. That has not been a trend that has dipped.
Starting point is 00:47:20 It has continued to reach all new highs higher and higher and higher, which is quite impressive that this trend has been so sticky Real long-term correction. We'll see how that really shakes people out. But you know, I digress asset allocation to risk on assets obviously substantially rose in 2020 and has remained elevated, JP Morgan says. And they have two more points that they pointed out in their report, which is investors who opened a brokerage account in 2020 and 2021, that cohort, higher than the most recent cohorts and the older cohorts pre-pandemic years have held and continue to hold significantly higher allocation to risk assets.
Starting point is 00:48:16 So high beta and high allocation to risk assets. So they probably don't own gold is what you're saying. Probably not. You not. Or cash. Well, yeah, it's hard to say. I mean, they defined it as like high data. No, no, yeah, they're probably into, yeah, like high growth stocks. Yeah. Probably, you know, depending on the brokerage, you can't even own like Robinhood, it allows you to have cryptos,
Starting point is 00:48:45 I don't know if they put that in, factor that in either. I believe so, yeah, crypto. They all own Palantir stocks, this cohort, okay? Now, I'm not in the camp that retail investors being fully invested in stocks for the long term is reckless by any stretch, it's not like I own bonds. And I think beta is a fine measure of volatility, but I think it's a terrible measure of risk.
Starting point is 00:49:12 So I'm always careful to, when I hear these types of things, like, oh, people are holding lots of risk, oh, but just because they're holding equities and maybe have more beta than the market. I don't necessarily think that that means that they are risky investors, but that's how the industry has like to classify these things. But okay, the takeaway across the board,
Starting point is 00:49:34 investors are eager to own more volatile assets and want more upside. And the cohort of new investors during the pandemic era was certainly more open to owning these riskier high beta assets. The study also found consistent with prior research, women's portfolios were much lower beta, more aligned with the market benchmark and lower idiosyncratic risk, suggesting higher allocation to index funds and less volatile investments. In contrast, men's portfolios were held in much higher market risk, less aligned with the market benchmark and higher idiosyncratic risk, suggesting more concentration in single stock equities
Starting point is 00:50:28 and less diversification. Not entirely surprised. That's been a trend that behavioral finance and behavioral economics have found for a long, long time. That testosterone is not helping. No, no. Okay. No, no. Okay, so I wanted to check in, I wanna check Robinhood's latest investor day.
Starting point is 00:50:50 Go on the Invest Relations tab. Oh boy. I'm just flipping through some slides. I'm looking for content for the pod. I found a really interesting slide that Vlad presented on their investor day. Okay, again, these are Robinhood customers. Don't get me wrong. But 50% are millennials, 25% are Gen Z, which is a really high allocation given the fact that
Starting point is 00:51:14 how many of them can actually own registered accounts and stuff. Baby Boomers, Silent Gen. What is Silent Gen? It's like, yeah, it's older. Yeah. So I'm the generation beforehand. So I think it would have been like probably like pre 1945 roughly. Yeah. Because baby boomers, I think it starts roughly around. Yeah. When the second world war ended. Only 5% in that cohort. 20% Gen X.
Starting point is 00:51:34 Gendered. Yeah. So I think it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like,
Starting point is 00:51:42 yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, it's like, yeah, when the second World War ended. Only 5% in that cohort, 20% gen X, gender-wise, 60% male, 40% female. Okay, interesting. That feels, honestly not surprising. For instance, this podcast, what are we typically? 70% male, 30% female.
Starting point is 00:52:04 Yeah, it's up there. Yeah. Yeah. I'm not surprised to Bozo's up here talking on the podcast. To our 30% ladies, we appreciate you. Thanks for listening to the show. You guys are great. Marital status, 60% married, living with partner.
Starting point is 00:52:23 60% married, living with partner, 60% married, living with partner, 10% divorced and 30% never married. Okay. I mean, it makes sense. 25% of the cohorts are Gen Z. So it makes sense. Income wise, okay, if it thinks get interesting over a hundred K years, the largest at 45%, 35% at 50 to a hundred K and less than 50 K a year is the largest at 45%, 35% at 50 to 100K, and less than 50K a year is at 20%.
Starting point is 00:52:49 Now this is great because you get people like Chamath Palayapitiya going on Twitter and his podcast saying, Trump doesn't care about the stock market going down because Trump's supporters don't own stocks. They're either really, really rich or they're in the working class and they don't own stocks. It's like, dude, things have changed so much.
Starting point is 00:53:18 People who have less income can go zero commission trading. People with less income in Canada can go on Questrade, go zero commission trading and own assets. So that's bogus. It's the dumbest tweet I've ever read in my entire life calling poor people asset light. Dude. Yeah, I mean, I think- If you call poor people asset light,
Starting point is 00:53:40 you are such a dickhead. Like, what a stupid thing to say. Okay. And Shaman definitely, like I listen to the All In podcast from time to time and he definitely has the snobby vibe coming from him. The one I do love is- He forgets he is a Canadian.
Starting point is 00:53:59 Yeah, yeah, exactly. The one I love is Dave Friedberg. Yeah, he's great. I could listen to him for a long period of time because he's always very nuanced. You guys remind me of each other actually. Yeah Yeah, I'm not surprised. I think he's also a big fan of Ray Dalio. Yeah, exactly. Yeah, you guys are.
Starting point is 00:54:18 I'll try to get him on the podcast maybe. Cut from the same cloth. But imagine being such a fucking dickhead that you call poor people working class asset light. Dude, you're such a nerd. Okay, roughly half and half, so half and half mobile and web volumes, which I have a lot of thoughts on
Starting point is 00:54:41 in terms of people, how people actually do their trades and activity on their broker's account. Pro tip, okay. If you wanna be a really good and self-directed investor, only invest on desktop. I actually don't think I have a better tip. No, it's not that. Only invest on desktop.
Starting point is 00:55:03 We, you and I use Questrade, Dan Kent, Dan Foch, all of us on the pod, we use Questrade, and I do not have the app. Love you guys, won't download the app. It is, I am trying to avoid emotional decision making at all costs, okay? I can sit down and have the data make an informed decision. I don't need to be, you to be walking out of the gym,
Starting point is 00:55:25 see some news article about some stock I own, go down 5% and panic sell. Like avoid those types of decision making over the next several decades and your returns will be better. Like 100% they will be better. And so my tip for almost all investors, self-directed, you just don't need the app.
Starting point is 00:55:49 I mean, I use the app, I don't use it often though. So most of the time I just go on the web browser. The only time I really use it at all, I'll get a notification that I got a dividend. So I'm like, oh yeah, which one is it? I'm just curious, I'll log into the app. That's most of it. But the app is nice, but I do agree. I'll log into the app. That's most of it. But the app is
Starting point is 00:56:05 nice, but I do agree. I do agree where you're coming from. Yeah. There's nothing wrong. Yeah. I mean, there's nothing wrong to have the app as like a quick view on your portfolio. I just mean like you don't need to trade a stock at the at a red light of an intersection. No, I mean, unless you're a trader, right? And then that's a different story. But yeah, if you're investing for longer term, yeah, you don't need the app.
Starting point is 00:56:33 And if you do have it, I mean, just make sure you control your emotions. Exactly. Yes. Know your, know thyself. Okay. Another point. You know, I think it's overall net good,
Starting point is 00:56:47 much of the innovation up to this point. I mean, look, you have zero commission fees now on trades, you got close to zero fees on the ability to own broad-based index fund exposure. This is fantastic, right? Like that forcing function of innovation of capitalism and how it has affected anyone to own assets, so you're not asset light, is amazing.
Starting point is 00:57:17 Like that's so, so good. And it's like the most democratic thing of all time is capitalism giving people the ability to own stocks and owning a piece of the businesses they know and love in their life as like to be an equity holder. Next to no fees, it's fantastic. You have research tools like FinChat. Obviously I'm biased, I'm the CEO, but like it's the best platform for fundamental
Starting point is 00:57:47 research on the internet. And it doesn't cost 10 grand a year like FactSet does like for what people would have to use before if they wanted access to public company information. So what's next, Simon? What's next? What's coming down the pipe? Unfortunately, more degeneracy, more things that look like vagus than they do investing in terms of innovation.
Starting point is 00:58:10 I feel like we've gotten to this point, I'm gonna say even 2023, where a long-term oriented, sophisticated, self-directed investor has everything they need and more in terms of being able to stack their cash, put it into these assets that are going to work for you over time. All those problems have been solved. So what's next?
Starting point is 00:58:37 Event contracts, aggressive pushing into options trading, bringing illiquid and expensive private equity products into the fold, which I believe to be an awful idea. But hey, this is where it's going and it doesn't matter what I think. I had a segment at the end of last year that this was my number one prediction into 2025 and is no longer a prediction. This is happening right now.
Starting point is 00:59:00 And I will give props to these companies, these fintech companies, the speed that they're moving at. Like I expected event contracts to be kind of rolled out maybe in the next few years across the board. No, like that's already in a lot of these places. It's like the same place I bet on the Super Bowl should not be the same place I manage my long-term wealth. I mean, that's my opinion. And I have no problem with people. Let people do what they want to do.
Starting point is 00:59:30 Don't hear what I'm not saying. I am very free markets. Let people do whatever they want to do. But they just don't need to be in the same place and we don't need to lead people down dangerous paths. That's just my opinion on this. Yeah, exactly. And I mean, like if you go to options trading, like there is ways to make money, but you have to be, you have to put in a whole lot of work to be able to make money off of options trading. Know when it's time to buy different type of options, tell them the duration, all these different kind of things.
Starting point is 01:00:07 And you see these YouTube videos and they just, they make it look like it's easy when it's not, right? So and I think that's that big issue and then people get fooled into that or I think it just comes down to unfortunately a lot of people think they just need to gamble and take these moon shots to be able to get ahead with or be able to buy whatever they want to buy whether it's a new home to put a down payment they're like you know what I'll never achieve that if I put my money in index fund and do that you know six seven eight whatever percent every year in terms of return. And people are ready to take some long shots. I think it's a reflection of where we're at right
Starting point is 01:00:51 now in society as some of the bigger issues that we have is a lot of people are finding themselves with that kind of mentality. This is a great segue. So I did a talk at a conference in New York in November of last year, so at the end of last year. And I did it on the DGEN economy. And I ran the panel and I had some questions for people and had some thoughts as well on the DGEN economy, which as far as I know, was coined by my seed investor,
Starting point is 01:01:27 Howard Lindzen. And so the degenerate economy is basically like what I believe is the vegasification of like all consumer applications. And it's creeping further and further and more pervasive into society as we go, right? Just because of the incentives. And so the MarketWatch journalist asked me for a follow-up story. And so I did this follow-up story with him like a month ago and it just came out yesterday. And so I know how, how cringe this is. I'm about to read a quote of myself from an interview, but I feel like I cooked. Okay. So it comes down to a structural issue
Starting point is 01:02:06 that young people have and particularly young men, Brayden Dennis said, told Market Watch, I don't know what I just said. That cohort basically has no vision for how are they going to get rich like their parents did. So their desire to achieve and not be a failure pushes them way outside the risk spectrum. Now you have a 22 year old with no experience trading extremely speculative assets like an option.
Starting point is 01:02:32 This sports betting-ification has transcribed into all areas of the markets, whether it's crypto or even equity markets. The mindset you hold when betting on the Super Bowl should not be the mindset for betting on your equity portfolio. And then he interviewed someone else here that I thought this this lady, I love her quote here, she says, quote, it's can't lose because I have nothing to lose. Naomi Winn, a behavioral finance at Orion and advisor said, quote, the system feels to have failed them.
Starting point is 01:03:07 The old tradition of if you just follow this particular track, you'll reap the rewards, which might align more with traditional investor thinking. That's already out the window. If you can't steer the boat, why not rock it? You know, this lady cooked, if you can't steer the boat, why not rock it? Yo, this lady cooked, if you can't steer the boat, why not rock it? I'd like that, that's really good.
Starting point is 01:03:30 So yeah, it's an interesting article. Maybe we can link it to the show notes, but it's about this future that's unfolding. It's not going anywhere. It's only gonna get more intense. Yeah, yeah, and I mean, look, and to play devil's advocate, right, let's say you're, yeah like you're that 22 year old thing, you have a thousand dollars. What's like, I think a lot of
Starting point is 01:03:52 them will just look, well I mean if I have a thousand dollars less, so zero dollars, I mean I'm still not in a great spot. If I increase it at 10% a year, I mean, it'll take me a while, or I could take this, put that thousand dollars and put it in this meme coin that just came out. And maybe I'll be able to 100X in the matter of like a few hours. And then I have a hundred grand and I can start thinking about making plans for the future. I think that's the kind of mentality people get into. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:04:25 And they're not educated on the actual math? No, because of loss. Of loss. Yeah, not only the probabilities, but actually just like the math of losses. Because if that $1,000 that you finally got and it disintegrates to zero, you have to, well, one, all your money's gone,
Starting point is 01:04:44 but you know the returns. You have to make well, one, all your money's gone, but you know, you know, the returns, like you have to make a lot more in percentage terms than on the upside, than on the downside. Plus the expected value of that move is deeply negative of trying to do that. People just think about the 0.1% chance that it may 100X, but not the 99.9% chance of other outcomes with the vast majority of them being very bad. They don't think about that. They just they don't think in probabilities. They just think there's a possibility I may 100x so I'm going to go and do that.
Starting point is 01:05:18 And you see that like I know I've talked about my poker background a little bit but you can even see that with top poker players. The very best long-standing poker players are not the bad, like yes they're going to be phenomenal at playing poker, don't get me wrong, but they also do very good bankroll management. And that is what differentiates the ones that stand the test of time and those that don't. Because the ones that do good bankroll management that have rules who say, okay, I'll buy into games but I will never buy into a game if it's more than 5% of my bankroll, whatever their rule is.
Starting point is 01:05:58 And if their bankroll drops too much, they drop in stakes and they have that discipline. Whereas you can have phenomenal players that will basically their whole bankroll on one table and they can play a really great game. They can put their money in with 80-85% chance to win but it ends up being that 15% and they lose the hand and they lose their bankroll and they're broke. So I think that's an example that I've seen time and time again in poker where you get phenomenal players but they don't have the discipline to go with it. That's right. It's like just staying default alive matters a lot. I guess the concern right is like to what this Naomi, I forget her last name, Naomi Wan. What she's saying is kind of just,
Starting point is 01:06:45 it's kind of true though, where it's like, say you have that $1,000, you finally saved that up, I can go put it in a broad-based low-cost index ETF and stack it up over time and keep it growing. And then they look at a price of a home or something and they're like, oh. Like, this is, yeah, like I'm just so, so far off the mark that it's just, the problem is is that there's no education
Starting point is 01:07:20 for that person to say, okay, you are so off the mark. Let's call a spade a spade. You're so, so far off the mark. But if you can just do another 1,000, another 1,000 every, say, six months or a year, you're able to continue to add fresh capital while the principal keeps growing. Look at the math now. Now you're actually in the ballpark. Now we're getting somewhere. Right now, yes, you are so freaking far off the mark. Let's not kid ourselves.
Starting point is 01:07:50 But convincing someone like that, that they got to think 20 years down the line, it's just so unrealistic for that. It's a tricky, really tricky problem to solve. But I'm just glad the tools for the people who do wanna play the long game are just so readily available and democratized now. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:08:11 And I guess the last option for people is that thousand dollar example that we've been using is take that money, don't invest it in the stock market, invest it in yourself. So get, use it to make, you know, just develop your skills whatever it is so that you can make more money and then you'd have more money to invest and you don't have to try and gamble the money that you have. So that would be the
Starting point is 01:08:35 third option which I think is probably an option that a lot of people should consider especially when you're younger is okay you can gamble on that meme coin you can put it in an index fund or you can take it and invest in yourself and develop in your skills that will enable you to have a higher income and be able to save more and then invest in a more prudent manner if I if I had to say choose a word yeah yeah it's a tricky situation but I tend to agree at that at that level You just got to start making more money. Of course, it's easier said than done But no exactly, but you got you got to start making more money. It's no one's gonna
Starting point is 01:09:19 No one's gonna save you you got what are you self you take that? Thousand and you start a business, like whatever it is, invest in yourself, that will probably give you the best ROI if you, you know, you pick the right path of investment for yourself. So that's just my, I guess my last two cents on it. Thanks for listening to the podcast folks. Appreciate you very much. We had lots of screen shares today.
Starting point is 01:09:42 That is viewable on jointci.com. That is join TCI for the Canadian investor. Join tci.com. It's $9 a month. You see our monthly portfolio updates. The listeners would have saw, yeah, I took a bath on BRP lately. Yeah, that's okay. But 19 or what is it yeah 19 percent cagger over the last 10 years i'm closing in on my 10th year of recording the returns for the listeners yeah it's uh that's nothing to sneeze at that's for sure no no meme coins in there I can like no no meme coins in there to do the math on 19% folks.
Starting point is 01:10:25 Thank you Constellation Software. Thank you Mark Leonard. Appreciate you. I owe it all to you Mark Leonard. No, go ahead and check that out. Simone and Dan have also done freaking fantastic. I mean, you've owned Bitcoin. We'll leave it at that.
Starting point is 01:10:42 You have owned Bitcoin. And gold leave it at that. You have owned Bitcoin. Engel in the last year, yeah. I was looking at it now, I've now owned Bitcoin for five years. Yeah, you're welcome. Yes, thank you. It should have been more, but you know, shoulda, woulda, coulda, shoulda.
Starting point is 01:11:01 Yeah, at least it's better than zero, so. Yeah, that's true. Thanks for listening folks, we'll see you in a few days. Take care, should have. Yeah, at least it's better than zero, so. Yeah, that's true. Thanks for listening, folks. We'll see you in a few days. Take care, bye-bye. The Canadian Investor podcast should not be construed as investment or financial advice. The host and guest featured may own securities
Starting point is 01:11:18 or assets discussed on this podcast. Always do your own due diligence or consult with a financial professional before making any financial or investment decisions.

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