The Canadian Investor - 7 Bold Predictions for the Rest of 2026: Canadian Banks, Gold, Oil Stocks, Berkshire and Buyouts

Episode Date: August 17, 2026

In this special episode of The Canadian Investor Podcast, Simon and Dan make their boldest calls yet for the rest of 2026. With only a few months left in the year, they discuss the trends, companies, and market shifts they believe could surprise investors — from potential winners and losers to unexpected moves that could reshape portfolios. Some predictions may sound unlikely, but that’s the point. Being bold means accepting that some calls will be wrong, while others could look obvious in hindsight. Tune in and let us know which predictions you think will happen — and which ones are completely off the mark. Tickers discussed: CSU.TO, AEM.TO, BYD.TO, GOOS.TO, BRK.B, XEG.TO, XLE, ZEB.TO, HEB.TO, CNQ.TO, CNR.TO, RY.TO, NA.TO, LVMH.PA. Subscribe to our Our New Youtube Channel! Check out our portfolio by going to Jointci.com Our Website Our New Youtube Channel! Canadian Investor Podcast Network Twitter: @cdn_investing Simon’s twitter: @Fiat_Iceberg Braden’s twitter: @BradoCapital Dan’s Twitter: @stocktrades_ca Want to learn more about Real Estate Investing? Check out the Canadian Real Estate Investor Podcast! Apple Podcast - The Canadian Real Estate Investor  Spotify - The Canadian Real Estate Investor  Web player - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Asset Allocation ETFs | BMO Global Asset Management Sign up for Fiscal.ai for free to get easy access to global stock coverage and powerful AI investing tools. Register for EQ Bank, the seamless digital banking experience with better rates and no nonsense.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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A stock is not just a ticker. At the end of the day, you have to remember that it's a business. Just my reminder to people who own cyclicals, don't be surprised when there's a cycle. If there's uncertainty in the markets, there's going to be some great opportunities for investors. This has to be one of the biggest quarters I've seen from this company in quite some time. Welcome to the Canadian Investor podcast. I'm Smel Benin. I'm back with Dan Kent. We have a really fun episode. So we're doing something we've never done before.

So we're actually doing our bold predictions for the rest of 2026. So maybe we should have done that a month and a half ago when it was half the back half of the year. But if we just were texting and we came up with this idea, you know what? That would be fun. It's only five months out until the end of the year. at this point, little less. So they are pretty bold. I'll just say that.

So I think it'll be a fun one. Let us know whether you think they'll happen or not. We had to be bold, so some of them may sound pretty crazy. But that's okay. It's okay being wrong. So let's get started. You have four. I have three.

So the first one regarding one of the darling of the Canadian market. So Constellation Software. Let's get started with that. A company that, by the way, I made a tweet, a poster, whatever you want to call it, where I got a lot of traction. So I said I bought it at 3,400 and sold it at 2,300. And I did a really good job at timing the market there. Yeah, buy high, sell low. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. The trick to losing money in the markets, but. Yeah, you can rewind this. You heard correctly. I lost money on it. I'm more than happy to save my good and bad moves. And

actually, I find it easier to talk about my bad moves. And I don't like to brag. So, but anyways, I digress. Let's get started. Constellation. What's Cable prediction? So I think it will close at 4,000 plus a share by the end of the year. And again, these are going to be a bit wilder than even the ones we do at the start of the year because we only have five months for them to come through. But this would be, actually, I wrote these yesterday.

So we're recording this Thursday. It will come up until Monday. Like a 25% increase from today pretty much, right? Or more than that. It'd be more than that. 33, yeah. Because, yeah, as we're recording this, they reported earnings yesterday. The earnings were actually pretty good, but the stock ended up kind of getting caught up in a software sell-off plus some low organic growth.

So I think they need probably closer to 30% now, maybe a bit more than 30 through the final four and a half months of the year or whatever it may be. But kind of the reasoning for this is over the last 13 or 14 months here. I've kind of mentioned that these stocks are going to need to not only perform exceptionally well, but kind of have. a shift in sentiment. And that sentiment shift is particularly difficult right now, I think, because with continued advancements, with many AI companies and LLMs. However, we are starting to see a bit of a shift. We're probably close to 35% off lows in terms of consolation share price since the

rock bottom when it hit like $2,300, I think. It's bounced back quite a bit. and a price of $4,000 by the end of the year says we'll get to about 75% off those lows. And I think there's a bit of shift here because of the fact that like AI disruption is still very much a market narrative and not really reflected in the results whatsoever for a lot of these companies. It was going to be a long road and I still think it is going to be a long road for these companies to be favored by the market again. but we're now six quarters into this whole AI narrative in regards to software companies with effectively zero disruption. I mean, just quick notes off Constellations quarter. I think free cash flow was up 57%.

Capital deployment, I think fastest. The largest quarter in company history are pretty close to it. Annually, they're set to make the most acquisitions in terms of total dollars they ever have. So really, organic growth was a bit slower. The market didn't really like that. As you can tell here from the chart, it's about 1%, which is kind of the lowest it's been in quite some time. But it tends to fluctuate quarter through quarter, not overly concerned on this. In terms of the revenue growth, they're probably when you're spending this much money, because revenue came in around 17%, but when you're deploying this much capital, you would expect revenue growth to increase in the future.

It's just there's been no signs of any struggles in regards to them in terms of. terms of AI and I think the more they put up strong results in the back half of the year, I think the more the market will probably start to reward not just constellation, all software companies as well. I think Adobe is pretty close to up 40% off the lows. Yeah. Yeah, that's what I was showing a bit earlier just. Yeah, I think the lows kind of came in mid June, right? Yeah. Yeah, I think it got down to, I think, 2350 at some point. It was, it was very cheap. And don't get me wrong. I, I I had mentioned this before on the podcast numerous times. I don't ever think these software companies will get back to the valuations they traded at pre-AI,

like 40x plus free cash flow multiples. But for Constellation to hit 4K plus, we really don't need those multiples again. And I mean, as I had mentioned, record levels of spending from Consolation and Topicus. I don't know much about Lumen that they're like kind of a telecom based VMS type company, but I would imagine they're seeing big spending there too. You know, we're seeing them kind of mention that the private market hasn't really been impacted all that much by the AI selloff. But the way they're spending money, you would have to think that there has to be some sort of pricing disruption in the private market as well. And they're getting, you know, a little bit better deals.

Or, you know, there's kind of a shift in strategy. But I think out of the four predictions I have today, this one is probably the least bold with how beat up a lot of these software companies are. A 30% run up into the end of the year isn't really all that outlandish. but I think it's going to be, and again, I had made these notes before they reported earnings. I mentioned that it was going to be a roller coaster to get there if it does. And we're sitting today on like a 7% dip in share price. So the roller coaster has started pretty early. But yeah, I think it could get there.

Yeah, I did that tweet last night thinking that they had a pretty good quarter and would look even more stupid on my part today with the stock being up. But I guess that makes the tweet a little less bad. I mean, I kind of rounded the numbers. I don't think I sold exactly at the bottom, but I was pretty close. But then again, I bought it late last year was when I made most of my purchases. And like I answered to a few people, some made fun of me, which is fine. I was like just having fun with them too. Yeah, exactly.

So that's fine. I just wanted to show, look, I make mistakes like everyone else. I think overall I have some really good returns, been beating the market for several years. But I'm not going to hit every one of them like a home run every time or make the move every single time. And at the end of the day for me, it was pretty simple, like I explained to a few people that were asking me why I sold. It was pretty simple. When I decided to soil, I think it was like in March, I looked at the business and I said, look, I'm pretty much like for me, 50-50 in terms of if this company is going to be disrupted or benefit from AI, I really

didn't have a strong feeling one way or another. I could make an argument for the bare and bullish case as well. And when that's the case, when I don't have a lot of conviction in the company, that's, yeah, I'm not in the habit of just holding a company because I bought it at a higher price and I wanted to get back up if I don't have conviction. Why the hell am I holding this company? And that's why I sold. That's it. And looking back now, I probably should have kept it, but that's okay. Yeah. Hey, you never know. Exactly. I mean, yeah, you can't, you can't borrow conviction. You have to have it yourself. That's it. So, no, I think that's a good one. Having cash on hand is essential for any business.

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the whole process seamless, allow you to focus on what really matters your investment strategy, not trying to avoid fees. Ready to invest, head over to Questrade.com, open and funding your account with code TCI and receive $50. Conditions apply. We've been talking about doing a trip to Halifax and honestly, it feels like the perfect kind of Canadian summer getaway, walks along the waterfront, taking our daughter to the public gardens, finding a few good local spots to eat, and maybe making our way out to Peggy's Cove for one of those classic East Coast days. And while we're away doing that, our home in Ottawa would just be sitting empty.

Summer is a great time for people to visit this city. Ottawa gets a reputation for being a little boring, but between the hot air balloon festival, patios in neighborhoods like the Glebe or Wesborough, family-friendly museums, and the nature to explore just across a river in Gatno Park, there's a lot more going on than people might think. Listing our home on Airbnb could let another family experience our beautiful city

while we're away and bring in some extra income to put towards our own. trip. Your home might be worth more than you think. Find out how much at Airbnb.ca slash host. Let's move on to my first one here. Those who have been listening to the podcast, probably know that I'm definitely pretty bullish on gold. A bit of a gold bug. I wouldn't say gold bug, but I have a pretty substantial position in gold. So my bold prediction here is that gold hits new all-time high by the end of this year, which would be quite something. It would have mean that it started with all-time highs and then had a 25, 30-perty-percent drawdown and then went back up to all-time highs.

I can't remember what exactly it was. I think it was around $5,500 in late January. And we would eat 55 plus. Yeah, 55 plus. And it's currently as we're recording this on August 12. So it's around 4,400 USD. So it is up, I think, about 10% now in the past, like, 10 days or so or, yeah, last couple weeks.

So it's really rebounded nicely. But it still has quite a bit to do. It's down about 20% since the peak. And when looking at the drawdown, there's a few things to keep in mind here. So gold, first of all, had more than doubled from January 1st, 2025 to January 28, 2026 when it hit that all-time high. So I think that's important to remember because, I mean, at the end of the first, the day when things go up that rapidly, things don't go up in a straight line forever. So a pullback was definitely, I would say inevitable, and I wish I would have trimmed some of my

positions a bit more back then. But to be fair, I'd been holding gold for two plus years. So I'm still way way up on those positions. But another factor here is, of course, the war in Iran. So I originally thought it would be a tailwind for gold as a safe haven asset. But what ended up happening was that large importers of oil, so think of different countries. One that comes to mind is actually Turkey. They started selling gold reserve to secure oil, which was rising quickly in price. So you need U.S. dollars. Like oil is sold in U.S. dollars.

So if you don't have enough U.S. dollars, what do you do? Well, you can tap into other assets that you own, and whether that's treasuries, whether that is gold because gold is actually overtaken U.S. treasuries, I think late last year in terms of value for central bank reserves. So you take those assets and you sell it to get some U.S. dollars and to be able to secure some oil, especially if you're a large important. And an example of that is Turkey, which was a large seller of gold during the first quarter of this year. So that kind of makes sense. And if you start looking at it, it was definitely towards the end of the first quarter, which does line up with the war in Iran.

And again, the other thing to keep in mind here is the other factor that has seen gold gone down is gold ETFs here. So gold ETFs, if we look at the inflows and outflows, I'm having a little bit trouble of sharing my screen here. There you go. So if you start looking at March 2026, you really saw some major outflows. If you were looking at 2025, for the most part, for a big chunk of 2025, you were looking at the massive inflows. And then you saw massive outflows happen in March of this year. Inflows a little bit in April, but not enough to make up what happened in March. And then more outflows for May and June.

And then July, you saw some small uptick in inflow. We'll have to see whether that continues into August or not. but the fact that ETFs may be starting to see some modest inflows is another tailwind here for gold. And then you get to the bond and currency markets. We're starting to see some really weird shit happening right now. Sorry for my language here, but it's hard to disagree what's going on to, like, what's going on to, like, observers. Like, there's just a lot of weird stuff happening. So, first of all, I think everyone knows the U.S. intervened with Japan to string the yen, which is,

to me shows that the U.S. Treasury is getting pretty nervous about the bond market. Why? Because if Japan needs to buy yen to strengthen its currency, it would have to sell U.S. Treasuries because it would have to get U.S. dollars. So selling U.S. Treasuries, you get U.S. dollars, and then you buy your currency to try and support it. Well, if it sells U.S. treasuries, it puts more upward pressure on the yield for longer-term U.S. treasuries. and that's what I'm showing right now here. If you're looking at the 30 year, so you're seeing that the 30 years, essentially,

if you look at the bond yield for the 30 year, it's the highest it's been since pre-great financial crisis. So it's already been facing some significant pressure because when the yield goes up, it means that the price of the underlying bond is going down. So that means a higher yield. And that's important because you're also seeing the 10-year go up in yield, And what that means is it will make financing for the U.S.

or refinancing more difficult for the U.S. government because it will mean that they'll have to pay more interest for. They'll have to decide to issue more treasury bills on the shorter end of the curve. But then again, if they do that, it also starts making the life of the Fed more difficult because then if they need to tackle inflation and raise rates, they may be reluctant because they don't want to impact too much to finance. That's essentially what comes down into fiscal dominance. And then, of course, if you start looking at central banks in general, so gold just becomes a really attractive alternative for not only central banks, but investors as well.

For investors who would say, you know what, we don't like the way that the U.S. finances are going. We don't really love U.S. longer dated bonds right now. maybe we won't sell them all, but we'll try to actually supplement that with some gold in our portfolio as an alternative to a longer dated bond. So that could be another tailwind for gold. And then you have the central bank. So China is a really good example for that. So the People's Bank of China, so the PBOC, they release data.

And of course, you have to take the data with a grain of salt because it is China. And you never know exactly the data coming out. But to be fair to China, it's not like we have pristine data when you look at the job numbers and all the revisions that are done like years afterwards. So, but I think it's probably a bit more purposeful when you start looking at China. But even for them, I saw some data from the public, the PBOC that essentially showed that since March, they've been increasing in tonnage their buying of gold. And July was the highest month so far this year. So China is definitely buying gold. and most experts say that for the most part China is probably understating the amount of gold it's buying.

So if people are saying that it's not necessarily accurate, they're saying it's most likely understating to not really reveal its hand to the rest of the world. So it's poker hand to the rest of the world and say, oh, look, we're actually buying. And I would not be surprised because China, one thing you can't say about China is they're pretty good at identifying when they won a specific asset and identity. a price that they think is pretty attractive and pulling the trigger. And of course, it's much easier to do that when you're a kind of dictatorship, lack of better words. Like they are in China, so you don't have a democracy in place. But I think the combination of all that, so you have

bondholders substituting some of their bonds for gold, central banks, buying, and also not wanting to be at the mercy of the U.S. government with potentially assets being frozen. So gold cannot be frozen. So that's another instance of them, possibly preferring gold over U.S. treasuries in terms of reserve asset. And then if the price starts going up, you could have institution, but also retail investor, jump in as the price keep going up. So my prediction is, I think pretty bold this one, that it'll reach all-time highs by the end of the year. And I think when I started, I said, of course, the need for oil cause some countries to most likely sell some of their gold reserves to be able to get that. But again, I think now those countries are probably just realizing that

this will likely be going on for some time these higher oil prices. So I don't know if you'll see as much selling pressure from gold going forward. I could be wrong, but that's my thesis and that's why I think it's going to be reaching all-time highs by the end of the year. Yeah, we only need around 25% to hit that point. And we moved, what did you say? We've moved 10% in a very short duration of time. So on the, on your entire segment here, I mean, that's a macro level that I never pay attention to. So I don't have much in terms of commentary on that because you covered it more in depth than I ever could even provide commentary on. So I, I wouldn't be shocked if it went 25% plus. I mean, it's, look what it's done in the last year. So it's going to be interesting. I mean,

miners will be printing even more money if it gets up to that 5,500 plus level. More money than they're printing even right now. Yeah, exactly. And that's one of the moves I made recently as I added to a nickel gold. And same thing for my parents' portfolio. It's been, I mean, I was pretty bad at timing with, I guess, consolation, but that was one of my better moves, which I almost ticked the bottom, but again, that's more luck than anything. I'm not saying I have any foresight. It was just when we talked about it for four stocks on the radar was mainly because I looked at them like, okay, even if prices drop another like 20, 25 percent from here, they will still be printing money. Sure, the stock will drop more from there, but I looked at it more from a kind of company

type of quality perspective, not too concerned about the stock. But that's my first bold prediction. let's move on because we have seven in total and we will not do this in less than two hours if we keep going like this. Okay, so my next one, and I am currently one for one on the podcast in this regard, Oracle of acquisition calls, I guess. But I'm guessing that Boyd Group Services gets a takeover offer either confirmed or speculated by the end of the year. I hope so, because you won't shut up about Boyd Services groups. So I think I have the listeners all agreement. Yeah, they probably never want me to talk about this one again, especially if they ended up buying it.

I'm going along for this ride with you. You are, so I will give you that. You're putting your money where you're mouth is. Yes. This is probably the boldest of the group, probably just because there's not a lot of time left in the year, but it is kind of capitalizing on a trend. So over the last few years,

we've seen plenty of small cap stocks get scooped up. We have Jameson Wellness, Park Lawn, Andrew Peller, Nuvei, Tricon Residential, Herodev Tech, I don't know if I'm pronouncing that right, but Sleep Country. In addition to this, we have GFL that has even spoke about being approached with a take private offer. And I think Boyd, in my opinion, is kind of the perfect candidate for a potential bio right now, primarily because there's nothing operationally that has gone wrong with this company. In fact, considering the environment, it's performing exceptionally well. Nothing is really structural here. It's all macro-related. And I'm going to tie this

one in to the Jameson Wellness one, which is the one I kind of figured they would get acquired and they did within a week. But I also had a bit of advance notice on that in terms of them stating a deal was potential. I think that scarcity kind of pulls bids in. So you have these two companies, Jameson and Boyd, who are pretty much the only publicly traded companies in their industry. Boyd is the only publicly traded collision repair company. It never used to be, but the other ones have been bought up. Jameson, I'm not sure if there's another supplement company publicly traded. I'm sure there is. I just don't know about it. The difficulty here is kind of the limited market. It's a pretty niche company and it's also a large company. It's larger than Jameson. It's larger than

Park Lawn was the only one that was larger was Nuvei. Despite all its struggles, it still has a market cap of around $4 billion. That said, the reason I still do think it's a possibility is the majority of major collision shops are owned by private equity companies. So caliber collision, which is one of Boyd's largest competitors, is owned by a private equity firm. It was acquired by that firm in 2019. And that same firm made an acquisition of Abre,

another collision shop in 2014, and they ended up merging them together. Abra. Yeah. Cadabra. So with Boyd being publicly traded, it kind of faces the full wrath of the public markets, valuations priced instantly.

So you might have some of these private equity companies who own collision shops and are kind of staring at Boyd, which has kind of been brutalized in terms of valuation and ask whether it's worth a shot. Another advantage is despite this being a Canadian domiciled stock, 90% of its revenue comes from the U.S. So this would no doubt be more attractive to U.S.-based firms. And again, it's a bold prediction. And as a shareholder, I don't really want this to happen because

the niche area of this business probably would have lower competition, which would probably mean a lower premium. I think Boyd does have pretty big upside here on a macro turnaround. And even if a P.E firm came along and offered a 50% premium, I think I would be giving up some long-term returns here. Obviously, nothing has ever guaranteed that the macro environment could never turn around and the company could continue to struggle with higher repair costs, more write-offs, all that type of stuff. I don't think that's permanent, but what I think is not necessarily what's going to happen.

And I kind of felt the same with Park Lawn back in the day. And I talked about Park Lawn a lot on the podcast, too. I bought up this company a lot when it got into the mid-teens. And then again, it got bought out private equity for a 62% premium. So it kind of felt great to see the big returns when that happened. But I think the company would be much higher today if it had still been publicly traded. So kind of one that. that I think could happen, one that I wouldn't want to happen unless the premium was huge.

But it's probably one of the highest quality Canadian smallish midcap companies out there right now. And a lot of them got scooped up. So I think it could be next on the radar. Oh, you're the grim reaper, the one who predicts the death of the publicly listed companies in Canada. So the grim reaper and kind of goes with park lawn for those not familiar. It is a funeral services company. So yeah, no, I, you've had a pretty good, pretty good track record, kind of eerie. So I think I'll, I'll give you the Grim Reaper title there.

But I like it. I like it. I mean, the park lawn was the park lawn one, and I won't go too long on this, was interesting because they had a lot of floating rate debt, which ultimately like killed them when interest rates went up. So I think their net income declines. The amount their net income declined, 85% of it was interest costs. and they got acquired by private equity in,

I believe it was June of 2024 when rates were 5%. And what happened through 2024, rates just went down to, you know, what are we at now, 2.25%. Well,

depends if they added Canadian or in Canada. Most of it was Canada. I believe most of their credit facilities were in Canada. So yeah, I would imagine that firm kind of made out like bandits on that buy because the rates started to decline pretty much right after. But yeah, what's your uh what's your next one i like it so i'll go i'll skip my second one and finish with that

one instead i'll stick on the theme of buyouts so for me i think i mentioned that the last time we talked about canada goose but i think it will be acquired by lvmage so louis Vuitton moate or hand it's i don't know the full made but louis Vuitton yeah louis Vuitton yeah so i'll i'll just stick to that. So I think it will be bought by LVMH. First, LVMH, for those not familiar, has a portfolio of luxury fashion brands. And it also doesn't really have any brands that are in that kind of luxury outerware type of brand. Obviously, they have clothing that would be outerwear with some of their other brands, but nothing that would like specialize more like Canada Goose does. And it also could use its expertise in fashion and other brands to solve basically the big problem,

with Canada Goose is that it's really a kind of seasonal business, right? Like lack of better words. Like when are you buying a winter coat? Probably in the fall for the most part. So in Q4 and potentially Q1, if you're looking, you know, your old code just doesn't do the trick anymore. But essentially those are the two big quarters. And the rest of the year, they do struggle with that. They've tried expanding the brands, doing other products with kind of lukewarm.

returns on that. It would be also a pretty small acquisition for LVMH. I mean, that's a company that is $1 billion a euro in terms of market cap. And you're looking at much smaller when it comes to Canada Goose, which is $1.2 billion Canadian market cap and has an enterprise value of $1.8 billion. Obviously, EV is just adding the debt back in. So it could make sense here. for them. It's not, it would not be a big acquisition. And LVMH could probably make a pretty compelling offer for Canada Goose without offering too much of a premium for being very honest. Like they would have to offer some kind of premium, but at the same time, you know, how much is a good question. And Canada Goose has had its issues, but it's still generated 100 million free cash over the last 12

months and has been free cash flow positive since 2017. So it is, not a money losing business. And if you can figure a way out to leverage the brand to make it a more year round type of brand, it could be really compelling for LVMH because if you, yeah, if you're able to increase those revenues throughout the year, not just focus solely on wintertime. Yeah, it could make a whole lot of cent, not expensive. And again, it does generate a pretty decent amount of free cash. So it's quite popular, I believe in mainland China, if I remember correctly. So a lot of things going for it. So my bold prediction is that LVMH will acquire it. It would be, yeah, kind of smallish acquisition for them. And I think it would make a whole lot of sense. Yeah, it would pretty much just be

a small tuck-in. And I think like even the thing with Canada Goose being the entire company seasonal, it tends to have kind of a negative outlook in that regard, but Louis Vuitton. buying it. I mean, they could get away with it being seasonal because it's just one small cog in a very big wheel. And they do make, as you were talking, I was looking up their acquisitions. Apparently they've made 46 acquisitions over their history. So I mean, it wouldn't really be, they make a ton of them. And Canada Goose is only trading at, well, I think what was it on the chart? Their 9x expected free cash flow. So the company is not expensive. of whatsoever.

I would imagine Louis Vuitton could probably scoop this one up distribution would probably, they'd be able to increase the

margin profile I would imagine just because of the scale. So this one is one I never would have thought about,

but is definitely interesting. I don't know who else would take Canada Goose out. I mean, Louis Vuitton

kind of makes perfect sense. I mean, I guess private equity could potentially that could be like a potential

buyout. Look, They're definitely trying. You go on their website, and the first thing you see is kind of more like fallish type of clothes. So stuff that's not like as winter that we would be used to be. And obviously like kind of mid-August, you're starting to think a bit more of the fall season,

not really winter. Even looking at some of the clothing here, my God, the price on these things. It's wild. Wow. Yeah. Yeah, these like knit quarter zip for $700.

I would not pay more than $50 for that. So clearly we are not the right market fit, but it does fit the luxury kind of brand, right? So, yeah, I mean, you're looking at bomber jackets that are like close to two grand. Like, yeah, it would be a good fit to LVMH. If you're looking for luxury good, makes a whole lot of sense there.

So that's it for this one. You want to go to your next one here? Yeah, so I'm saying that Berkshire's cash pile falls below 300 billion by the end of the year. So I think they're $365 billion right now, but this wouldn't really be the situation where they only have to spend $65 billion. You'd have to consider the net sales of equities

and also just the operating cash flow that the company generates that naturally adds to the cash pile. I would say in order for them to do this, it would need to come in at $90 billion plus. I think it's highly unlikely, which is why this is kind of a mid-year bold prediction, but I do think it's possible. If you think combination of acquisitions,

market activity buybacks, Alphabet deal was notably huge. If you think about it, if you're looking to raise capital for the AI build out, I mean, what better company to approach? Because I think Alphabet did approach Berkshire. They gave them a 6% discount on their shares.

I don't know how much Berkshire added to that total equity offering by Alphabet, but you definitely can come to a company like this and get some pretty reasonable deals. In addition, this, it doesn't really need to make massive moves in AI names to move the needle. So it bought OxyCan. I mean, I'll push back on the reasonable deal. I think Berkshire will be more the vulture here. If they see that financing drying, yeah. Yeah. If they see that financing start drying up for some of these hyperscalers, they might come in and say, okay, like we're interested, but you'll have to make it worth or while. And that's usually how Berkshire operates. Yeah. And I mean, if they

can get an even more reasonable deal through Berkshire than they could tapping into the debt market or the equity market, it could be a good deal for both sides. Obviously, Berkshire's not going to do it unless they feel there's going to be long term, like they're not going to issue, give money to these companies at any cost. It would have to be attractive, but they were approached by alphabet, so I would imagine there's going to be quite a few companies. And if they feel it's going to be a good deal, they could make it. They bought OxyCem, which is a chemical, area of Occidental Petroleum's business. So they merged it in as a subsidiary of Berkshire.

They didn't really need to do this, but there was a good chance that that company wouldn't have hit leverage targets if they didn't do it. So Berkshire kind of took advantage. I believe they paid $9.5 billion for it. Then you have Taylor Morrison, one of the largest home builders in the U.S., so Berkshire taking advantage of pretty much a cyclical low

in the housing market. They had mentioned this that a lot of their internal companies related to the housing market are not doing all that well, but they don't expect it to last. So you have them $10 billion into Google, $9.5.5 into OxyChem, the Taylor-Morson deal. They're around $26.25 billion in these three deals. So the pace definitely needs to accelerate for sure, but I do think it's possible, especially when you combine the buybacks. If they spend the same as they did this quarter, you're probably looking at through the end

of the year, another $10 billion in buybacks. and this one is pretty much it's going to hinge on what you see next quarter Berkshire will need a pretty meaningful reduction in the cash pile in Q3 you're probably actually going to need to see it before Q3 because you're going to need to see numerous announcements

like these two deals in order to make it happen but it would be a pretty big move I think there is kind of a shift in strategy here with able at the helm like I don't know if Buffett and we had talked about this previously but if Buffett was still in power are they a net buyer of stocks?

It's hard to say. I know he does still have influence, but he also kind of want to hand the reins off and kind of give the other, you know, team in power now the ability to spend. But, yeah, it's going to be interesting.

Yeah, I guess one other reason it could see its cash pile go way down. I think it's one you haven't mentioned, but if we get a pretty steep market correction, 10, 15, 20. Yeah, if the market's correct. If the market's correct, that would be prime Berkshire time to make some deals because that's usually when they strike, right?

When the market is down and there's blood in the streets, Berkshire usually comes out and tries to secure some pretty favorable deals. So I think that would be if that happens, I think it would be a really good chance of their cash pot going below $300 billion because that's what they have a history of doing. Yeah, I think if you see, especially if you see like a steep correction. like say the S&P falls 15 or 20% in the final four and a half months of the year, I would say it's more likely. I would say it's much less likely if it closes at all-time highs. I would say next to zero chance if that's the case. But yeah, it'll be interesting.

I would expect, even if it doesn't get below $300 billion, I would expect it to continue to decline in the next few quarters. Okay. Now I think that was a good one. Having cash on hand is essential for any business. Traditional business accounts hit you with high fees while paying little to no interest on the cash you need for day-to-day operations. That was our experience too, until we switched to the new EQBank business account.

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There is an old saying in investing. It's not about timing the market, but time in the market. The most successful investors aren't usually the ones trying to catch every top and bottom. They're the ones who spend the most time in the market. I've been a quest trade user for over five years, and the reason I stick with them is that they remove the friction of regular investing. With no commissions on stock and ETF trades, you don't have to wait until you have thousands of dollars saved up to make.

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Walks along the waterfront, taking our daughter to the public gardens, finding a few good local spots to eat, and maybe making our way out to Peggy's Cove for one of those classic East Coast days. And while we're away doing that, our home in Ottawa would just be sitting empty. Summer is a great time for people to visit the city. Ottawa gets a reputation for being a little boring, but between the hot air balloon festival, patios in neighborhoods like the Glebe or Wesborough, family-friendly museums, and the nature to explore just across a river in Gatno Park, there's a lot more going on than people might think.

Listing our home on Airbnb could let another family experience our beautiful city, while we're away and bring in some extra income to put towards our own trip. Your home might be worth more than you think. Find out how much at Airbnb.ca slash host. So the next one here for me is that energy stocks will provide 50% total returns from here until the end of the year. So that's 50 from here. Yeah, plus 50 from here. So let's track it as of August 12, 2026.

and the what I'll need to be able to achieve that is that XEG so the I shares ETF and then the XLE which is for the S&P 500 so obviously this is oil and gas or energy in a whole as a whole but essentially those two in terms of total returns will have to be yeah 50% or more until the end of the year and for context here this would be pretty significant because if you're looking at just total returns since the start of the year, you're looking at 40% for, yeah, 40.1% for XCG. So the TSX outperforming on the energy side there and XLE percent. So pretty substantial returns if that would be the case because you're looking at, yeah, for just the last four months of the year. So I'll go over why I think this is the case.

So I think there's a few forces at play here again. more on the macro side, but first, I don't think, I think it's pretty clear. This is where I think you and I have had some disagreement earlier on, but I feel like you're probably starting to switch over to my side. Like, the Middle East, what's happening with Iran and the Strait of Ormuz, like it's not, it's not resolved. It's not being resolved anytime soon. Like, I think there's going to be a whole lot of job owning from both sides, Iran and the U.S. until the end of the year and probably beyond that. But I think for me now, It's beyond me that a lot of people still think a deal is about to happen when we've had like some fake deals.

What about like 12 times now, 15 times? Like I lost out. Yeah, it's hard. It's they always routinely come on the weekend. So are you starting to kind of come to my side now a bit more? Huh. Sorry not to at this point. I mean, the theory just for some context on this.

I just, my theory was always, they always get what they want. They always get what they want. Yeah. Yeah. That's kind of been my. kind of idea on this for pretty much the entirety I've been investing is when they do something,

they're doing it and they always get what they want. Are they getting what they want here? Not particularly, but I still don't have a lot of faith in energy companies. And I know I'm from Alberta. That's a bit weird. But I mean, I own them for a very long time and they went effectively nowhere. So I kind of exited that space. I owned XEG probably right out of the pandemic, like in probably late 2021. I haven't. entered it since, but I mean, if there's any sort of oil crisis, oil shock, oil goes back up, this is not unrealistic at all. But I mean, are they really going to let oil get that high? Or they just going to keep pandering about here, talking about deals and all that stuff?

It's a tough situation to navigate the price of oil is just so wild all the time and so heavily influenced by, I mean, headlines from the president, really. Yeah. Yeah. And I mean, part of my thesis here is if you looked at the SMP 500, so I'm just showing ZSP from BMO, but this is just an S&P 500 ETF, so whichever one you look at, it will be the same. So energy is 3.32%. Information technologies and communication services, which is pretty much like most of it is AI now at this point.

Yeah. A big chunk of it. That together represents over 45% of the SMP 500, yet energy is 3.3%. So I think there is just a whole lot of money that is not invested right now in energy stock. So I think that is one part of my thesis here is you could potentially start seeing more and more money rotate, whether it's a rotation from more AI stocks to more commodities, including energy and gold for my previous prediction as well, gold miners. I'm not quite sure you have some large investors or institutions that would start. are taking money off of the table.

That's definitely possible. But just the fact that it's such a low percentage of the SNP 500, I think will play a big role here. And then you start looking at what's been happening. So I'm sure a lot of people have seen this, but essentially the U.S. Strategic Oil Reserve fail at the lowest level since 1983. So it's important for context here that governments, yes, will have special Petroleum Reserve or Strategic Petroleum Reserve, so the SPR. So governments will have that around the world.

And according to the IEA, so the International Energy Agency, about 410 million barrels have been drawn from oil stocks since the start of the war, which is about a 5% decline. That's important because the oil stock includes like pretty much everything, not just SPR. So it includes essentially commercial reserves. It includes sanction oil, all different types of oils. So yes, the stock includes.

there is a 5% decline, but it doesn't mean that all of this would necessarily be accessible as well. So there's been a whole lot that's been drawn out from those SPR. And it's hard to get exact numbers, for example, like what does China really have? Again, we talked about it on the gold side. Like we can't really rely it on what it has, and not all governments will provide clean data. So you have to keep that in mind. But the reality is those special petroleum reserve or strategic petroleum reserves, those SPRs have actually been drawn down quite a bit since the start of the conflict, which is probably a decent part of why the price of oil has stayed relatively subdued with everything that's going on. A lot of people were predicting $150 plus if the Strait of Hormuz would be close for an extended period of time.

It has not happened. And some analysts say that it's likely because China has pulled back and been drawing on its own SPR to make sure that the oil, the price of oil wouldn't get too high and have some more problems for itself, but also its trading partners in Asia. But that's essentially where I'm going at is I just simply don't think that we're going to see the conflict and the straight resolved anytime soon. and I think you're going to see more and more or the disruption just simply continue. So I don't think there's going to be a resolution and I think those Band-Aid stop gap measures that we've seen since the start of the conflict

at some point, you know, those reserve just end up getting real low and countries just are no longer able to start release them. So that is one of the issues there and they may fear that if they continue, it'll get too low so they stop. And even if there is a resolution in the conflict, then you have to think that for years, and I know this is a bold prediction for the rest of this year, but for years it's probably going to put some upward pressure on prices because they're going to have to replenish those oil reserve. And that was one of the big criticism of the Biden, but also the Trump administration, and they're both guilty of it, is they should have replenish the SPR.

when they had the chance in the last couple of years when the prices were lower and they actually didn't. So now if they start doing it, of course, you're going to get into some kind of issue because you're going to be pushing the price back up. So I don't think it's going down anytime soon. And I think it could go substantially up by the end of the year. And if it does, you combine that with the fact that the oil and gas sector, the energy sector has just been pretty much overlooked, despite having a very good year so far this year, I think it's still underinvested. That's why I think if you combine that with also dividend and buybacks

until the end of the year, that 50% total returns is definitely achievable from now until then. Yeah, if you think a lot of these oil producers are growing at the pace of tech stocks right now, in terms of like free cash flow growth and they're still like valuations are just, I think I was looking up Canadian natural like 13.5x free cash flow on a four. on a forward basis, they're probably, I don't know, I'm just guessing, because I don't know what they're going to generate on a forward basis. It's going to be more, I would imagine. So you're probably looking at like 10x forward. They're just so cheap, but. And I have another thing to tell you, Dan,

is they're not spending $200 billion in CAPEX this year either. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It's just such, it's been such a chronically undervalued sector, like underinvested sector for many, many years. So you could see if oil elevates, you could see multiple expansion as well, which is when you'd get that really amplified price. I mean, we've seen it in in 2022, 2021, 2021, when they just all ripped in price. No, exactly. So I think, and probably one of the other thing we haven't mentioned is just the disruptions we're seeing in Russia as well with the Ukraine and Russian war, Ukraine targeting Russian energy infrastructure. So that can, that will also have an impact with, I know it's sanctioned. but for the most part, I think the U.S. has been a bit more lenient towards that to help alleviate the overall price of energy across the world.

So they've been more receptive at lifting at least temporarily some sanctions. So we've seen that since the start of the war. So if you have another major oil producer that's having some issues, then clearly could put some upwards pressure. So I think obviously I threw a whole lot of stuff here because I wanted to make it a relatively short segment. and I tried to share as much as I could in terms of the screen sharing, but it's not always easy to talk and get all the right slides at the same time. But people will get the gist of it. That's why I think there'll be a 50% plus for total return,

so including dividends there. So what's your last one here? So this one, you'll like this one. This one's a little bit different than the oil. I say in HEB, which is the equal weight banking index on like Hamilton's and BMOs, I think they finish the year plus 50% including dividends. So that's not, that's not 50%.

We'll see if it's energy or, well, it's a little bit different because I'm, I'm saying plus 50 for the year, not plus 50 from here. Yeah, there's, okay,

it's sad. It's as bold. You chicken it out, huh? Yeah, I chicken it out. But I don't think it's, banks are pretty expensive right now.

So I do still think it's pretty bold because we're plus 30% here, I think ZETB is up around, 30% if you in a total returns around 30 and we've kind of talked about oh 32%. So they need another, you know, 18% on top of that, a little less obviously. But we've talked about Canadian banks quite a bit on the channel. There was that we did a whole episode on them that Rosenberg article on the Globe of Mail when he said they were in a bubble. I'm not super bullish and I own Canadian banks.

I will never sell them unless something catacly. chlismic happened, but I'm not super bullish, but I'm far from being bearish either. And the reasoning for that is provisions by the looks of it have actually peaked and are heading downwards. And one could argue both sides of the coin as to whether or not that will continue, but I kind of tend to put my faith into the economists at the bank that make these decisions because they are much, much smarter than me. So I looked up three banks, Royal National, and TD, and fiscal had data going back to around 2015. So I got quarterly data going back to 2015. And out of all the situations with these three banks where there was a period of declining provisions, they tended to last around two years. So that would be, of course, I only had two segments of this because we could only go back to 2015 on a quarterly basis. But 2016 to 2018, which would be kind of after the oil shock. And then 2020 to 2022, which would have been the pandemic. So two cycles is not really a guarantee as to how this cycle could go.

But if it kind of follows that trend, we could realistically have three or four more quarters of declining provisions, which is no doubt bullish. The only difficulty of this and why it is just a bold take is, as I had mentioned, the banks are priced for this. I think it's an absolute necessity that we see declining provisions over the next year or so here, or we'll likely see the banks take a step back. So I guess this is bold and in regards that I think the provisions could come in, the declines in provisions could come in faster than many think. And obviously if you're reporting like these provisions for credit losses every quarter taken out of net income so it impacts earnings. If you have declining provisions, not necessarily a recovery, I don't think any of the banks are going to be recovering any of the provisions. But if they're declining, the difference in those declines effectively gets added into the, the net income for the banks. And I think one of the main reasons we're seeing this right now is

the banks were putting a lot of provisions aside for a mortgage cliff, in my opinion, that never really happened. Like mortgage delinquencies have ticked up, yes, but they're not even close to the amount these banks are expecting to put aside in regards to provisions. And I remember, I have to push back on that one. Yeah. Do you think? Yeah, the reason for that is the Bank of Canada did a working paper. and I actually talked about that on the macro investor a couple of times. And they've shown that mortgage delinquencies tend to happen. I think it's about two years after households start having issues with credit payments. So essentially household will extend and pretend as probably

the best word without extending, but they'll pretend that things are fine until they're not. So they'll be utilizing other credit forms to pay for the mortgage. They'll be. They'll be missing payments on credit cards and stuff like that. So if you start looking at credit card delinquencies, for example, they tend to be a leading indicator to future mortgage delinquencies. So households that get stressed usually have about, like I think it's two to three years until the mortgage goes delinquents. So if you're thinking about the renewal wave, which most of it happened last year and this year. 2025, yeah, potentially late 2024. Like if you had a three year fixed or something.

Well, yeah, but the biggest years were 25, 26, because if you go back five years, right, that's essentially 21, 22. Those were the peaks. And so you could make a case that those mortgages that are already struggling right now, people are like making, maybe making their payments, but they're starting to cut back on their stuff using credit to pay for the mortgage. You were not going to see that pop up for probably another year or two. So that's the only part I've wanted to push back because there is, you can. start looking at other forms of credit, like credit cards, for example, a bit of as a leading indicator. So I wouldn't say we're out of the woods.

That was my main point here. Yeah. But do you not think that these banks would know that? They would have to. Like if you're thinking about like the six biggest institutions who have probably the best forecasts into this because they'd be able to see credit card delinquencies, all that type of stuff. have a good inkling or then again maybe they're there being a little bit too early on releasing those provisions like i mean i'm not saying that either one is is right but i mean we see executives

make stupid mistakes all the time like it's not they're humans after all right so yes i'm not i'm not saying that they're not preparing for this i'm just saying that you know things could potentially get a little worse going going forward too. So and what I'm seeing right now for those on YouTube is simply the what Dan is referring to that yes, the provisions have actually been lower than they were in previous quarters. So we'll have to see whether that continues or not. Yeah. Yeah, I'm going to take the opposite end of that and say that the banks, if that was a

potentially eroding issue, I guess, on credit quality of a lot. of their customers, they'd be able to spot it. And I don't think, like, I don't know if they gain any benefit from, you know, reducing them too early. I don't know, because ultimately you have to pay for it down the line. If you reduce too early, uh, no, that's fair. You're going to get hammered because, well, I mean, CIBC kind of had the opposite end of the, the spectrum where they increased too much.

Their stock price kind of got killed. I think that was, would have been 20, 22 or, 23 and they kind of went way overboard and then they started declining. So you can't really dodge it either way. Like if they kind of knew that that credit quality was deteriorating in that regard, I don't think they would be booking less provisions because ultimately you got to pay for it at some point. So you'd have to think that they're doing this with data knowing that obviously it's not guaranteed to not happen, but it's unlikely to happen. So that's kind of the approach I'm taking. I mean, I'm not a super big, as I mentioned, I'm not a super big bank

bowl anyways. I think my portfolio was probably six or seven percent in royal and national, like between the two of them. I know a lot of people are 30 percent plus. I mean, I know a lot of people who are 30, 40 percent in Canadian banks with multi-seven figure portfolio. So I'm not as big of a bull as them, but I just think, I think you're going to see continued declines into the end of the year. I think you need to see continued declines in the end of the year. I just think they're going to be above what anyone had expected. So it's not really outrageous to think they're 32% right now that they could go 50 plus. But I think with expectations, like how high they are right now with a lot of these banks trading at

17x earnings, which seems very cheap, but banks just do not trade at that price level. They're usually low teens in terms of price to earnings. So they're definitely expected. A lot is priced in. And I mean, this one will be put to bed fairly early because I think the banks, they have to be reporting pretty soon. Yeah, the weeks I would imagine. Yeah. So if we don't see that in Q3, this one's kind of dead in the water very early. But I think it's definitely a possibility. Yeah.

No, and I'm not saying it's, it might not happen what you're saying in terms of like I agree. It could very well happen in the banks. I'm sure there's really smart people that are paid to good, good amount of money to make sure that the bank are, you know, you know, have good risk management strategies. That's not what I'm saying. I'm just saying that, you know, there is also scenarios where they start increasing those provisions again. Maybe that now it looks good, but a couple of quarter passes and all of a sudden they're

like, okay, we have to revert back and start provisioning more. So that's more. That's more the devil's advocate I was trying to do for that. Oh, yeah. It's completely fair too because even the best economists in the world can't predict this type of stuff with any sort of reasonable accuracy. I mean, they can predict it much more than I can. And we've seen it.

For people watching here, they saw it on the graphic, right? Like, even if the overall direction of PCLs for the banks is pretty constant with all the banks, right? They kind of move in that direction. They have the big peak around COVID, then the big decline. If you start looking more on a quarterly basis, you'll see that it varies a lot more. All of a sudden, you'll have a bank that'll, like, make huge PCLs while the other ones are kind of just slowly. creeping up and then some of them will reduce it greatly. So there's always like kind of one or two outliers that are like jumping up and down. So that's why like maybe I have a little more

reservation, but it's not impossible. I mean, the banks have been surprising me. And I was also looking at their returns compared to the SMP 500 to the SMP TSSX and ZEDB has basically crushed all of it over the last 10 years. So you could have done a lot worse than just sold the Canadian banks, you would have crushed the markets. That's as simple as that, yeah. Yeah, for all of the criticisms, I guess, that Canadians get for being too concentrated in the banks, it definitely has worked out very well for a lot of them over the last, well, I mean, over the last 15 plus years, but particularly in the last five. Yeah, but don't take that to say that it's necessarily safe, right? If you only have Canadian

banks, you just need to look south of the border to see what happened during the great financial crisis. I'm not saying this is what's in store. for Canada, but I'm just saying when you're, and I know there are some Canadians that investors that are only in banks. Like I've heard that before. They had, uh, that was another globe and male beauty of an article. They had the one. Really? It was a, it was a former bank executive and she had her entire portfolio in Canadian banks. I'll have to dig up the article. I'll see if I can find it. That would have been back during, cool. That is the most stupid, stupid. She was 100%. I've heard from a former executive.

Like literally have your old portfolio there. She probably has a, or he has a pension from the bank, most likely a defined benefit pension with a supplemental retirement plan because they're a high earner. So they're relying on the pension being properly funded. Plus they all have all their investments in banks. Yeah. This is like, okay, I kind of go back to what I said. They might have extremely smart people, but even smart people can make stupid decisions.

that would be one of the dumbest portfolio allocation strategies that I've ever heard of from a risk standpoint. I don't care how bullish you are for banks when everything you have is dependent on the well-being of the banks. And maybe she has an investment somewhere else. Maybe she has real estate and stuff. But let's just take it as face value that she doesn't or he doesn't. That has to be one of the dumbest thing I've ever heard of. Yeah, I'll see if I can find the article for you. It would have been probably 2021, 22. For in the comments. No, I mean, no, I mean, no. Yeah, for people. Yeah, I don't think, no matter how good an asset does over that time frame, I mean, that level of concentration is, would probably

terrify a lot of people. But yeah, I'll see if I can dig up the article. I'll send it to you. Okay. No, that's perfect. I think it's a good point to end. Hopefully you enjoyed this, this episode. It was a fun one. Let us know if you agree or disagree with our bold predictions. I think some are bolder than others, but we'll have to see. There's only four and a half months, roughly. If my math is good. Yeah, that sounds about right. So quarter and a half that we have.

So let's give ourselves, we can revisit that back in January. So wait for the actual full year to be done. So January 2027, revisit that. But let us know if you agree or if you have some of your own bold predictions until the end of the year. But if not, hopefully enjoy this episode. And we will be back with our news and earnings episode this Thursday. The Canadian Investor podcast should not be construed as investment or financial advice.

The host and guests featured may own securities or assets discussed on this podcast. Always do your own due diligence or consult with a financial professional before making any financial or investment decisions.