The Canadian Investor - Earnings, Canadian telemedicine play and 100 baggers

Episode Date: March 1, 2021

In this week’s episode we start with by discussing some recent earnings & news including canadian banks, GFL, Teladoc, Roku & The Trade Desk. Simon gives his thoughts on the Cloud MD, a canadian telemedicine play.  Braden finishes the episode with his takeaways of the book 100 Baggers. Tickers of stocks discussed: TTD, ROKU, TDOC, DOC.V, GFL.TO, WELL.TO Want to send us a question? Check out our Anchor.fm link in the description below and leave us a voice message! Getstockmarket.com Candian Investor Pod Twitter: @cdn_investing Simon’s twitter: @Fiat_Iceberg Braden’s twitter: @BradoCapital --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/the-canadian-investor/messageSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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The market has been sliding a little bit, but this happens, guys. This happens all the time. The only normal thing is volatility. What's going on, Simon? How are you feeling? I'm feeling better. I'm recovering from that injury, slowly getting back to normal. And I'm optimistic that I'll be good to go when spring opens up. And hopefully everything opens up and the weather is nice.

But yeah, lots of stuff to talk about today on the investment front should be interesting. It's kind of turning seasons, right? So it's always a fun time of year. Yes, sir. All right, let's talk about that because the Canadian banks just reported they went six for six on beating estimates. I don't know about the other four, but I looked briefly at the reports for Royal and TD. about the other four but i looked briefly at the reports for royal and td and they both had year-over-year uh comp profit growth of 10 both of them so and provisions were down across the board on all of them i don't know if you looked at these reports yet like most of them came out

in like the last couple hours so uh yeah it looks like they all did pretty well i mean when you throw provisions way down throw earnings way up it looks pretty they all did pretty well i mean when you throw provisions way down throw earnings way up it looks pretty good um is the economy thriving no probably not uh but man housing is freaking hot i i'm speaking for toronto and ontario but housing is absolutely bonkers these days yeah it's gotta be good yeah I mean, no, I think I haven't looked into detail about the bank earnings, mostly because I don't own any banks anymore, like I've mentioned before. I'm not surprised perceived with all the you know, the CERB with the benefits for for the pandemic, it's allowing people to make ends meet. I'd be interested in seeing the most recent data from the Bank of Canada

because they came out in November with the amount of debt that was deferred for mortgages, credit cards, and so on for all the different type of loans. I looked it up yesterday and I couldn't find anything more recent. So that is the one thing I would keep an eye on it if you own banks just to get an idea because that can definitely skew the data but i mean you'd have to think the banks are taking that into consideration as well so uh but yeah definitely a good day if you're owning a you're a bank stock owner which probably a lot of our listeners are because canadians do love their banks right they certainly do and it's be the only thing that's been performing well right

now the nasdaq's getting absolutely slapped but i mean again you know what this podcast is about take a wider view you know something that's down 10 this week you know people are quick to uh complain about that and the stock's up like 150 trailing 12 months so i mean we got to peel back some of these expectations and recognize that volatility is very normal and we will see it now we'll continue to see it and we'll see it again um okay so we talked about canadian banks uh they all can't hike their dividend. I haven't been following Canadian banks that much. I've got to be honest.

But I don't know if you knew about this. The federal regulator isn't allowing buybacks and dividend hikes basically since last March. I guess because of the pandemic. Really? I don't know. I thought that was just a U.S. thing since the financial crisis. Okay, that's interesting. I don't know if it's since March, but right now they're on pause.

And I follow Equitable Bank, like EQB. They reported some good results as well. And they're like, yeah, we want to increase the dividend, but we can't right now until we have clearance from the regulators. Anyways, we're not bank guys. So if you want to hear about bank stocks, this is bad. The Canadian investor probably has a lot of bank stock investors listening, but that's okay. GFL, which is backwards, is LFG.

GFL, which is backwards, is LFG. I'm just going to tell you that. Reported 37% revenue growth. Good guidance moving forward. Not oath-shattering growth moving forward, but good growth, acquisition growth. EBITDA is going to be solid. And I like this business for a couple reasons. It has a lot lot of tailwinds but it's an owner-operated business and i like that man i like founders leading the business as many people do and gfl is a good example of that he's he's uh he's doing well, man. And that short report came out right when they IPO'd.

That was total crap. So I like the stock. I bought more. And GFL's rolling. Should I go on to another one here? We got Trade Desk. Late last week, they did 48% revenue growth. Okay, so Connected TV, the advertising for the trade desk is absolutely

massive. And I missed the connected TV Roku story. I still don't believe that has a moat, but I know a lot of really, really smart people that do. And I've been just like so dead wrong on that, but I think the trade desk has a lot of room to grow in connected tv but i like i use roku has to be the one thing that i use every day and i still don't understand the mode yeah i mean i actually know like and i used to think like you and the reason why i think roku has done a really amazing job is because they don't really have a kind of skin in the game as compared to Google, Amazon, or, you know, all the big streaming platforms. So they really are a bit kind of an independent platform where you can put all of your streaming services all at once. It's the only thing we could find where we

could have our account for Crave TV, we could have our account for YouTube, we could have our account for Amazon, Apple TV, all at once. And I think that's a big reason why people actually, actually like Roku. And that's why we got it, we actually got that device specifically, because we couldn't God get Apple TV to our TV without plugging our laptop because we don't have Apple devices when it comes to laptop and stuff. So it was either that or the I guess Apple TV that you kind of plug in. So that's the reason. And I think they've done pretty well because of that, because you have the other big players that are kind of making sure that their competitor is hard to add to their platform or just doesn't let them do it right and then they're getting revenue out of advertising from there so i mean i was totally like you but uh the more i was

thinking about it earlier this year the more i thought that roca is actually a pretty good play because they i don't know if they lose money on the soft on the hardware itself but uh you know even if they do they have a pretty good business model, it seems like. Yeah, it is pretty good. And a lot of the smart TVs you'll buy. So I don't know if you know a brand called TCL. It's the number one selling TV on Amazon because it has really good specs for the price. Like in terms of bang for your buck, this Chinese-made TV is really solid, and they're flying off the shelves at Amazon,

and they come with the Roku OS built in. Like TCL sells their TVs where the operating system of the smart TV is Roku. So you have it right then and there. And then you're just kind of in their ecosystem because it's the operating system. And anytime that happens, there's a moat being built. And so I just guess I've been, I don't know if I want to say I've been wrong because sometimes price narrative drives a different narrative that might be separated from the business. But this is one that i've been wrong on both both sides of the story but connected tv has more legs than i expected and that's why i own some

a very small position in the trade desk and this business is incredible like wow and roku seems so under under monetized still yeah um so i think the trade desk is going to be big. Yeah. I mean, for Roku, you're not the only one. I mean, I think a lot of people thought that, and if you invest in Roku a few years ago, good for you because it's done really well. It's done incredible. As do-it-yourself investors, we want to keep our fees low. That's why Simone and I have been using Questrade as our online broker for so many years now. Questrade is Canada's number one rated online broker by MoneySense. And with them, you can buy all North American ETFs, not just a few select ones, all commission free so that you can choose the ETFs that you want.

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and they get exactly what I need done quickly. Switch for free today and keep more of your money. Visit questrade.com for details. That is questrade.com. All right, moving on. Autodesk just reported results. My phone went off like four seconds ago that they just reported results, but they did acquire Innovise, which is water software uh firm for 1 billion in cash it looks like on the notification i got that autodesk just beat uh estimates by quite a bit uh not that i care about estimates too much but uh next episode i can i can talk about autodesk um simon you're gonna talk about uh the rsp deadline coming up. Yeah, just a PSA.

So you guys, by the time that you hear this, there will not be a lot of time left for you to make contributions. It's going to be the last day, right? Yeah, it's going to be the last day. So Monday, March 1st, 2021 is the last day. Okay, so if you're listening to this right now, today is the last day to contribute to your RSP. So yeah, it's march 1st 2021 uh why does it matter because it's the last day where you can actually contribute to an rsp and then

apply it to the previous calendar year so a lot of people do do that it's it's probably a lot of people are most likely already aware of this that's plastered everywhere with the banks and so on just keep in mind though sometimes there are processing delays if you're transferring money from a bank account to a brokerage platform i think i got an alert from quest rate saying that it had to be done either today or tomorrow to be able to to meet the deadline if you were doing like a pay bill type of deal so just keep that in mind. Because if you do it on Monday, it's possible it will be too late. But if you're like with TD and TD direct investing, I'm assuming

I will probably be able to do it the same day. Anyway, just make sure you do your due diligence with your financial institution if that's the case. But if not, you know, if you just want to apply it to the 2021 calendar year, then just forget about that deadline. It really doesn't matter. So if you, if you make the, if you make the bill payment, like I'm speaking in the future,

like today, when we dropped this episode, that still is allowed. I think I don't, I mean, I should, I don't know that. I shouldn't be saying that.

That'd be terrible. Listen to Brayden. Just check, just check. I know quest rates I shouldn't be saying that. Don't listen to Brayden. Just check. Just check. I know Questrate sent in some things. So if you're doing a paying a bill to send money to Questrate, I think you have to do it either today or tomorrow. So make sure you do your due diligence with whichever platform you're with

if that's your goal. Because even if you do it on March 1st, it's possible that it won't be processed on that day, and you will not be able to apply it. So but the deadline is still March 1st. So now, I'll go on for a couple of earnings on my own. So the one that I'm sure people are kind of looking at, I've talked about this company before, Teladoc. So they had really impressive results. So they had 75% organic growth. Their revenues doubled year over year when you factor in the acquisitions that they did. They had a couple of big acquisitions. One of them obviously was the Livongo Help acquisition, or if you want to call it merger, whatever.

or if you want to call it merge or whatever. They launched a new primary care platform, Primary 360, which seems to be getting a lot of uptick. I listened to part of the conference call earlier today. The gross margins are still really strong at 67%. They really, in terms of their guidance, they see continued strong adoption even once the pandemic is over. Just because people are now used to that service and they really realize how convenient it is, but also the cost savings associated with that. The one thing that I'm happy that they talked about on the conference call is they had negative free cash flow for 2020.

They also had a lot of expenses in the last quarter of last year, but most of it was related to the merger or the acquisition with Livongo. So that's one of the things that kind of I had a bit of a flag when I saw that. I had a bit of a flag when I saw that. However, I'll still keep an eye on it because I want that to normalize and get them back to being free cash flow positive. But I will give them the benefit of the doubt personally. And their revenue, they're projecting $1.95 to $2 billion for 2021 in revenue. So another double. So it'll be interesting how that goes forward. I mean, they're still valued very expensively. Just at the 2020 revenues,

they're valued at about 35 times sales. So they're still not a cheap stock. But, you know, seems like they're firing on all cylinders. And I know I'm not planning to sell my shares anytime soon. So, yeah. Any comment on that one, Brandon? No, but I think the topic that I'm talking about at the last part I think is important for you because if you want serious, serious gains, like life- changing gains on some sort of business, you got to hold on. And this is one that there's just really no reason to do anything here. So yeah, yeah, yeah, exactly. I mean, I think the tailwinds are still there for years to come. So

exactly. Yeah. So the next one I wanted to talk fairly quickly, and we can probably do a deeper dive down the line, but a lot of people have been talking about CloudMD, which is the ticker is DOC on the Toronto Venture Exchange. So a lot of people were asking, you know, is it worthwhile? How does it compare to WellHealth? How does it compare to Teladoc? And I think you guys already know what we thought about Well Health. Just basically it's a telehealth slash clinic play. The gross margins just going on memory they really were I think they were around the 30-35 percent range. They were still losing money just kind of an acquisition

story. Very highly valued and CloudMD is kind of similar when it comes to that. So it's still a very small company. It's trading extremely expensive, 50 times sales. They have 42% gross margin. Same thing, it's an acquisition story kind of growing that way. They also have a kind of agreement with pharmacies in Western Canada where people can see a doctor with certain pharmacies, but that's solely located in Western Canada. My main issue with CloudMD, it is a telehealth play mostly. It's just because they feel like a tiny player in that field in Canada. And the reason I say they feel like a tiny player because there's two big companies that are private. So we don't have their financials.

We don't have their full numbers. But just based on how present they are in various employers dealing with them. I know, Brayden, you, I think your company uses Maple, right? That is correct. Yeah. And they're bagged by Loblaws. So let's just, you know, they're backed by a pretty significant player. Loblaws has a pretty decent stake in them.

And then Dialogues, another one that we use at my work, and they're backed by that, La Caisse des Poules Placements Québec, which is a provincial investing arm of the Quebec government. And then you also have Telus Health, which is obviously Telus. That has started last year, I believe, was the first year where they had telemedicine available. And we all know that TELUS is a very solid company that produces a lot of cash flow. So all that to say that you have to be careful with these small players in that field, especially when you're looking at these companies that are like they have significant financial resources behind them so you know maybe cloud md maybe well health will end up being the big winners in that field but personally if i had to bet in canada for the telehealth space those are not the bets i'd be making especially when it's trading at such a high valuation in my mind and I could be completely wrong, the main way you'll probably make money on this investment is either the bubble continues or they get acquired by a bigger player.

Those are the two main ways because it just, I don't know, I just don't feel like they have the financial resources to be able to compete with those other players what do you what do you think about that brayden yeah i just don't know i at the current prices of of well health and and doc.v which what is it cloud md um i just don't know how you make your money back at these prices because if I'm paying 50 times sales for something, I want a good business. I want a really good business. If I'm paying 50 times sales, give me Shopify. Don't give me a company that does 80% of their revenues from in-person clinics with a total addressable market of just Canada.

Like, I'm just not interested. I don't know how you get your money back. We could be wrong, but I don't think we are. And there's another, one of the best pieces of advice I was ever given was go for the best in breed. And when it comes to competitors, like think of how much outsized capital these two companies are getting,

Well and CloudMD, because they're the public ones. You know, like what if Maple IPO, like what would those be valued? I just don't know that answer but are they the best company in the space like probably not I just don't know why people are so eager to pay up for a company that does 80% of their revenues for in-person clinics like yeah like it's just like it's not even it's not even sexy like how's it getting these

kinds of multiples and i get it they're making acquisitions and and sure whatever but the total addressable market is still canada based on all of the uh prospectus and and presentations i've read from these two companies and again i'm not an expert on either of them. But they talk about gaining market share in Canada. It doesn't mention anything else. So it's just like if I'm paying 50 times sales, I need a big total adjustable market if I'm going to make my money back. And I need a good company with good margins.

Man, these are terrible and if even if they thought about expending in the u.s you know i i think i'm gonna bet on teledoc just you know winning that market over any of these two companies so it's just keep that in mind i know the allure of a low stock price and i'm not talking valuations here the pure dollar cost of one share it can be really strong and DocMD uh sorry WebMD CloudMD is WebMD that's the one that you like you you look up you have a cough and you have cancer that's WebMD exactly uh no but CloudMD I mean and WellHelp I just uh you know I I have I really just have a hard time seeing where it can go. And I know the allure of that, like 250 to a share, I think it is right now for cloud MD, I know it's

can be really tempting, because mentally, I think the human brain will think about it like, oh, it's only, you know, if it doubles to $5, I'm double my money. But that's when it comes to import to doing your due diligence and looking at the actual valuation. And when you look at that and they're just not making a lot of money and they're burning quite a bit of cash compared to that too. So, you know, if you're interested in it, by all means, it's your money, but just be aware of what you're getting into. Yeah, that's a good point too. Like the, this is the whole like investor psychology and why companies split their share prices because you think that you're getting like a better price or

what feels good to be able to order a lot of a hundred of something versus like if you buy google stock for two thousand us dollars you're like get one share and like that's two thousand us dollars is not like that's a good contribution to a tfsa or something right like that's not a meaningless amount but oh it's only one share and then you look at it and you're like oh one share of google does 750 usds uh last time i checked so this is just silly investor psychology right and the when we say a stock's expensive we do not mean the share price we do not mean the share price it's like when i bought my amazon share recently, 3K a share. Yeah, yeah.

Or like when you buy like Constellation Software stock, which is like 1700 Canadian, you're like, oh, I got one share, sweet. Like you don't feel good about that, do you? But I mean, that doesn't matter. It does not matter. Exactly, yeah. As do-it-yourself investors, we want to keep our fees low. Exactly. Yeah. American ETFs, not just a few select ones, all commission free so that you can choose the ETFs that you want. And they charge no annual RRSP or TFSA account fees. They have an award-winning

customer service team with real people that are ready to help if you have questions along the way. As a customer myself, I've been impressed with Questrade's customer service. Whenever I call or email, every support rep is very knowledgeable and they get exactly what I need done quickly. Switch for free today and keep more of your money. Visit questrade.com for details. which is lessons from 100 baggers so 100 baggers is a book written by chris meyer and i've talked about lots of recently as i was reading it lots of different important topics like the twin engines and stuff like that. Chris Meyer wrote this book. And I wanted to talk about the takeaways. I got one, two, three, four, like seven takeaways here of what makes up an 100 bagger. So

the reason that the book is called 100 baggers stocks that return 100 to 1 is because Peter Lynch coined the very famous term 10 bagger, which means, you know, you invest a stock and a stock and it you 10 times your money, it makes the company becomes 10 times more valuable than when you when you bought it. That's a that's a 10 bagger. Now, what about something even crazier, which is 100 baggers, you know, like the super, uber successful stories like the Amazons when they went public and the Apples when they went public or the Monster Beverage Corp, even like Domino's Pizza. It doesn't have to be in any specific industry, but there is a couple things that are common between these companies. And so here they are. First off, you just need growth. You need sustained growth over decades, sometimes multiple decades,

but you need growth. You need revenue growth. You need a company that's growing. You can't get an 100-bger from cigar, cigarette butt investing, you know, trying to get that last puff before it might be gone or, or even just trying to find some deep value play that, you know, it's trading for six bucks, but you think it's worth 16 bucks and you're going to exit at 16 bucks. You know, that's, you're making a good return on that, sure, but it's not in a hundred bagger.

So you need sustained growth. Okay, that's one. Multiple expansion is important. That's number two. So that's the twin engines right there. You got the companies growing, but the multiple is growing, like the price to earnings, the price to sales, the price to free cash flow. These are just basic valuation multiples. But as they expand, you know, this matters. The classic

example I always use about is like 2015, Apple traded for like 12 times earnings, like the PE was low double digits. And now it's what, like 35? I don't have it in front of me, but it's high, right? So it's demanding a much higher multiple for the earnings that it produces. That multiple expansion gives you stellar returns. Starting small. So he points out that on 100 baggers, you probably need a small company to begin with. You know, the chances that Apple at $2 trillion becomes a hundred-bagger from here, probably pretty small, maybe impossible given the total GDP of the planet.

So it's not saying that you can't get stellar returns. You know, I think right now, big US tech provides one of the best risk reward opportunities out in the market today. I truly believe that. But do I think they're going to be 100 beggars? No, probably not. But are they exceptional companies with still really long run rays of growth? Yes, but probably you need to start a little smaller. All right. but probably you need to start a little smaller. All right. High median return on invested capital and return on equity matters. It's a good indication of the business model and management's ability to invest back in the business and continue to compound for you. This matters. All right, good gross margins. So Simone,

how many times do we talk about gross margins on this podcast? Like literally probably five to 10 times per episode. And the reason for that is it describes good unit economics for the business. So a company that has really high gross margins, like the Autodesk, for instance, a company I love, has 90% gross margins, meaning a lot of it is flowing through. They have low cost of goods sold and the scalability of the company. They can grow without having to actually have higher input costs and higher cost of goods sold. And it makes a big difference because then you're going to flow more through the income statement and eventually, hopefully to free cashflow. Owner operators. So I talked about GFL earlier. That's a founder led business.

So people talk about owner operators, founder led. These are fancy finance bro talk for companies that are being run by the person who started them, or at least like the family who started them. There's lots of good success stories of even handoffs happening to the next generation and the, you know, the son or daughter taking the business, you know, 100x from its current status, you know, taking it over from the grandparents. But what's essential here and what matters is the owner operator has a lot of skin in the game. So if the CEO, maybe they're not, you know, first generation of the business or started the business. But if they have a lot of stake in the business, this matters. I'm getting tons of questions about EngHouse lately

because the stock just keeps falling after delivering 50% revenue growth last year. It's just sometimes stocks just fall out of favor. Am I selling the stock? Absolutely not. They produced a great year. And the reason why I believe in Steven Sadler is not only has he been with the company since like 99 or 97, he's the CEO, but he owns $400 million in the stock, $400 million. And people are like, oh, but I keep seeing him sell some shares. I'm like, yeah,

he owns like such a sizable part of the business. He owns like 400 million of 3 billion in market cap. So if he sells a couple shares, I mean, he's got to de-risk his own personal portfolio. So don't worry about that. The guy owns $400 million in stock. So these things matter. The incentives matter. He's incentivized to make good capital allocation decisions. And I'm a big fan of that. All right. The most important part of a hundred baggers is you have to hold on to winners. is you have to hold on to winners. Selling winners and buying losers is like cutting the flowers and watering the weeds.

You got to hold on to your winners. And that's pretty much it. Those are the takeaways from 100 baggers. I mean, assuming that every stock you own is going to become a 100 baggers. I mean, assuming that every stock you own is going to become 100 bagger, you're setting yourself up for some bad expectations. But it can happen, guys. It really can happen. And these are some of the things that you might want to look at. And so these are important. Sustained growth is important. And you got to hang on because there's going to be volatility through that whole process.

The amount of times that Apple has halved its value as a time as a public company, more than 10, I think. I think like 12 times Apple's halved its value. Someone fact check me on that. But I posted a thing on the St stratosphere community about that the other day. It is absurd how much volatility along the way that you're going to have to deal with. But if the business is intact, don't sell. Sometimes they're going to look overvalued at times. Just hang on.

Hashtag never sell is my recommendation. So that's it from 100 Baggers there, Simon. Yeah. No, these are all great concepts. And yeah, definitely have to hold on to your winners. And that's one of the big advantages of not being an investment manager or anything like that. When you're an individual investor, you can actually, you know, you don't have to sell. investor, you can actually, you know, you don't have to sell. Obviously, you know, you may get into a situation where if you're really stressed out, you may want to consider trimming a little

bit under certain circumstances where you might have no choice. You need, you know, something happens in your life and you need extra cash because it's not covered enough by your emergency fund. You know, those are all things that you have to consider. But whenever possible, you should try not to sell because that's when that's really when you start compounding those those returns. So that's probably one of the most. Well, I mean, they're all important, but that's the one that I would hammer on as well. Yeah, yeah.

I mean, there's always going to be a reason that you might want to take something off the table and maybe trim it but it doesn't mean you have to go woo made my sweet return i'm going to sell it while the business is absolutely firing on all cylinders still it's just kind of don't you know don't interrupt the compounding if you don't have to but sometimes you have to so i mean that's fair exactly so i think uh is that it for this episode brayden i think that's it man we're gonna we're giving you we're giving you a sneak peek right now simone and i are about to record another episode because i'm off to whistler tomorrow baby i'm gonna be in the mountains for a little bit. So, um, Simon, go, go get some coffee and some water. We're going back to back here. All right. That does it for this episode, guys.

Thank you so much. This podcast is growing like crazy, but I know this, that a lot of you guys are still not following it or, um, subscribe to it on your podcast player. So if you're, if you're listening to this right now and you're like, oh, that's me, go ahead, subscribe. And it really helps this podcast grow. So we appreciate it. And we'll see you guys next week. Thanks. Bye-bye. The Canadian investor is not to be taken as investment advice. Braden or Simone may own securities mentioned on this podcast. Always make sure to do your own research and due diligence before making investment decisions.