The Canadian Investor - Earnings Roundup - Big tech and canadian logistics

Episode Date: August 5, 2021

In this second episode of the week, we’re doing an earnings roundup because it’s earnings season!  We’re talking about recent earnings of Alphabet, Teladoc, Microsoft, Apple, Visa, TFI international, Canadian National Rail and Starbucks. Tickers of stocks discussed: GOOG, TDOC, MSFT, AAPL, V, TFII.TO, CNR.TO, SBUX Getstockmarket.com Canadian Investor Podcast Twitter: @cdn_investing Simon’s twitter: @Fiat_Iceberg Braden’s twitter: @BradoCapital See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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It's the second release of the week. And we're going to discuss the earnings palooza that is going on. Today is Wednesday, July 28th. that is going on. Today is Wednesday, July 28th, and it is big tech earnings release and more. With these episodes, we're hoping to cover all kinds of different industries. We're looking at US and Canadian companies, as this is the Canadian Investor Podcast. But for this first release, some of the biggest names, the biggest mega tech companies have released earnings. So we are going to go through those and a few other names as well. Simon, I'm excited to do this. We have a couple of your names on here as well. And what have you,

what has been your feel generally from today and yesterday with some of these big releases my feel is things are going much better than 2020 that's my biggest thing from all of it yeah and uh for it'll be fun just a high level obviously we're not doing a deep dive so it's kind of uh just a light high level view of what we've seen so far in these different earnings release. That's right. All right, let's cook it off with one of my largest holdings, which is Alphabet, Google's parent company, reported 62% revenue growth. I think that might need another. I think I need to say that again.

If you didn't hear me correctly, 62% revenue growth in CompQ2 to $61.9 billion in revenue for the quarter. YouTube generated over $7 billion compared to $3.8 billion in their top line revenue, which is absolutely absurd. They're basically doubled revs in a year. YouTube is a beast, and they are sure monetizing it now. They're going pretty heavy on the ads. I worry that they're over-earning just a little bit. And I know this sentiment has come around with a few circles I talk to. They are really pushing a lot of ads.

circles I talked to, they are really pushing a lot of ads, yet more and more growth from actual viewership. So it doesn't seem to be hurting them. So what are they going to do? They're going to keep gushing the business's cash flow, which is advertising. So anyways, Google Cloud also grew to $4.6 billion on top line revenue. It still loses money, but they're only a quarter or two from profitability in the cloud business, based on my quick back of the envelope math. Once you hit that point, you have another segment with a lot of operating leverage that will continue to gush cash. The core search business has over 60% operating income margins. And when I think of the best business on the planet, this has got to be it, right?

The core Google search business is absurdly good. 60% operating income margins, still growing, monopoly gateway to the internet. I mean, really, the core search business gushes cash out of its pores and continues to grow as globally digital advertising spend increases. If $26 billion in cash on the balance sheet and they're investing heavily into cloud and artificial intelligence,

says Sundar Pichai, the CEO. Well, personally, I'm still bullish on AltaVista, but I think it's been dead for too long. I don't think it'll make it come back. You're a Bing guy, aren't you? You use Bing. Oh, yeah, Bing. No, no.

I get annoyed. At work, we have Microsoft Edge, and I think by default it goes to Bing every time. I'm like, oh, I just hate it, so I have to type manually Google google to to go to that yeah you the only reason you use bing is to search google um and i mean really like it is a superior product there have been all kinds of people that have tried to create search results that are competitive with google and you just can't like i was the same way when I used to have my corporate job.

I would Bing something like even just a regulation, like some environmental regulation. And it would just not give me what I'm looking for. And then I'd go right to Google and I'd get straight the answer that I'm looking for. Once you have that experience, you're never using another search engine again. Yeah, exactly. And for those wondering what AltaVista is it's uh the search engine in the uh dial-up days that's essentially what it was

you're dating yourself now yeah and if you don't know what dial-up is well you can google it so on to the next ones the next one that I want to talk about is teledoc everyone knows i own it um so i wanted they came out with their earnings i believe it was yesterday um revenue growth 109 year over year although it may seem really impressive at this time last year teledoc had not made the livongo acquisition yet so that's something to keep in mind i mean there's it's still very very good don't get me wrong but just something to keep in mind. I mean, it's still very, very good. Don't get me wrong, but just something to keep in mind here. The revenue outlook for the full year increase for 2021 between $2 billion and $2.025 billion. Total second quarter visit top $2.4 million. That's 28%

higher than last year during the first wave of the pandemic so that's really interesting right there especially since Livongo is more of a chronic care something that patients will use constantly over time so these numbers specifically for the visit very interesting to see that the usage is still very high free cash flow positive for the quarter, although it's better to look at this metric on a full year basis. So just a little asterisk on that. They had a net loss of $134 million versus $26 million last year. But again, they were free cash flow positive for the most part. It's expenses that have gone up due to the Livongo acquisition and the InTouch Health acquisition. Something to keep an eye on, and it is something I did mention as well

when I talked about it, when I looked at their 2020 full year result, something to keep an eye on are these expenses that are related to those acquisitions. And they also launched the My Strength Complete, which is an integrated on-demand mental health care service. So overall for me, very, I think, solid quarter from Teladoc. Again, I'm very interested in seeing what happens for the full year of Livongo, just to see what kind of impact it had on the business, making sure that those increased costs kind of normalize as well towards the last two quarters of the year. That's something that I'll be looking at.

But I'm a happy shareholder. And I will mention one last thing. Someone mentioned me on Twitter saying like, oh, the market open Teladoc was down 10% on the news of the earnings release, you know, wondering if he should sell and whatnot. Well, by the end of the day, Teladoc was actually up slightly on the day. And that's pretty typical for Teladoc when they come out with their earnings release. Oftentimes, there's going to be an overreaction on the actual same day. And there's going to be a swing of like,

it's not uncommon to see a 10% swing in a day for Teladoc, especially after the earnings release comes out and that really highlights why we invest in the long term for these type of businesses because we don't get swayed by these short-term swings yeah and if you want a lesson in temperament just follow simon on Twitter because he has held some stuff that has been crazy volatile, but ends up winning big. And Teladoc, like you can agree. I mean, the valuation got pretty nuts during the pandemic. It was like, oh, this stay at home telemedicine service just got pumped out of control. You were the benefactor of that for a while because

you held pre it go crazy but um it's come back to life yet still posting some good numbers so this is kind of the opportunity for for guys like you to keep keep averaging down on it and then you know i mean the the business's long-term vision is intact. Yeah, exactly. Microsoft posted Q4 2021. Revenue is up 21%. Operating income was up 42%. Earnings per share was up 49%. Come on.

Are we not entertained? Insert movie quote. Are you not entertained? on. Are we not entertained? Like insert movie quote, are you not entertained? LinkedIn revenue increased 46% and now has done 10 billion in revs over the last trailing 12 months. For context, 10 billion on the last 12 months is what Twitter has done in the past three years combined. So just to give you some context of how big LinkedIn is now, even though I do think it's a bit of a goofy platform, I'm not really sure what its identity really is, but that's just my take. Xbox had some weakness in a console year, which is disappointing, because they can't get chips to sell these things. Sony and Microsoft console cycle has been a huge flop so far. I don't have anywhere else to put it.

But I'm not a gamer, so I don't really have any anecdotal evidence here to point to. But is anyone buying these new consoles? Like, can you even get them? I've heard nothing about it. Yeah, I haven't either read too much on it. Personally, I do play video games from time to time but i tend to play on pc and i'm fine with playing like i have a cheap subscription five dollars a month where i can play like i think it's and i can play or is it no i think it's we a platform i can play like

star wars game that was released like three years ago and for me it's more than enough and stuff like that so i don't care about having the most up-to-date title so that's just my personal thing yeah like i don't even i haven't heard anything about it maybe i'm just getting old but i'm not hearing about video games but like i don't even know anything about this console release it goes to show you how big microsoft has become and these points of weakness become a wash as the whole business together grows so fast. The Azure platform continues to grow at industry-leading pace, and they're winning the big, big deals because they already have so many people in their Microsoft ecosystem. The business is doing extremely well. I mean, earnings per share up 49%.

We'll give them a break for the Xbox thing. Yeah, yeah. Microsoft has been overall good at identifying acquisition. They don't have a flawless record. Obviously, Skype is probably one of the best examples there. But when they hit, they hit big. And LinkedIn is a really good example. I know with my work, a lot of people kind of swear on LinkedIn. They love the professional

networking aspect of it. I'm kind of like you. I'm like, it's fine. I kind of go from time to time. But I mean, people that love it seem to really love it. So that's all I have to say. Yeah, we're fin Twitter guys. That's why. As do-it-yourself investors, we want to keep our fees low. That's why Simone and I have been using Questrade as our online broker for so many years now. Questrade is Canada's number one rated online broker by MoneySense. And with them, you can buy all North American ETFs, not just a few select ones, all commission free so that you can choose the ETFs that you want. And they charge no annual RRSP or TFSA account fees. They have an award winning customer service team with real people

that are ready to help if you have questions along the way. As a customer myself, I've been impressed with Questrade's customer service. Whenever I call or email, every support rep is very knowledgeable and they get exactly what I need done quickly. Switch for free today and keep more of your money. Visit questrade.com for details. That is questrade.com. Calling all DIY do-it-yourself investors. Blossom is an essential app for you. It has been blowing up with now more than 50,000 Canadians plus and growing who are using the app. Every time I go on there, I am shocked. The engagement is amazing. This is a really vibrant community that they're building. And people share their portfolios, their trades, their investment ideas in real time.

And it's all built on the concept of transparency because brokerage accounts are linked. And then once you link your brokerage account, you can get in-depth portfolio insights, track your dividends, and there's other stuff like learning Duolingo-style education lessons that are completely free. You can search up Blossom Social in the app store and join the community today.

I'm on there. I encourage you go on there and follow me. Search me up. Some of the YouTubers and influencers and podcasters that you might know, I bet you they're already on there. People are just on there talking, sharing their investment ideas and using the analytics tools. So go ahead, Blossom Social in the App Store and I'll see you there. What happened with Apple?

So Apple reported Q3 earnings with a 36% increase in sales. So that reached a record $81.4 billion for the quarter. So that is quite amazing, especially a company as massive as Apple. It's, I mean, they just keep pumping in free cash flow, $21 billion of cash flow as well. iPhone sales were great. The iPhone 12 Mac sales were great as well with the new M Apple chips. The service segment is killing it since we're really addicted to our phones, and they've really been focusing on that service segment.

And they don't publish the actual iPhone metrics, I think, now. They just publish how much they make, right? Yeah. In terms of revenue. In revs, yeah, yeah, exactly. That's it. Because people were getting, they were, I think, tired of analysts asking about, like, units sold. And they're like, you know what?

We won't publish it. How many iPhones? Like, come on. It seems ridiculous. Yeah. Well, remember like what, three, four years ago, like people were really wondering where Apple was going to go with slowing iPhone sales. And now we're looking back and it was obviously a buying opportunity.

The one thing that put a little bit of a cold shower on their numbers is the fact that Tim Cook did say that they are facing supply constraint. Cook said that the shortages aren't in the high-powered processor that Apple has manufactured for its devices, so like iPhone, for example, or even their laptops, but it's what's called the legacy nodes or chips that do everyday functions like driving displays or decoding audio and can be manufactured using older equipment. So we're seeing that same chip supply constraint that we've seen with other industries. You talked about it with Microsoft and obviously car manufacturers have been heavily impacted by that as well. So definitely something to keep an eye on, like whether you have Apple stocks, Microsoft,

maybe some of the automakers, but other types of businesses, they're really, you know, seems to be, it's a problem. I don't know how long it'll stay a problem, but something to keep an eye on. It's one of those things where you don't realize how much everything we make has become a computer until we have no little micro semiconductors to put in every single thing that we need to make. And you're going to talk about CN Rail in a bit later. I was doing a report on CN Rail and talking about the chip shortage. There's all these ripple effects, right?

They are moving a lot less cars and it has a significant impact on their revenue because there's not enough chips to sell to the automakers. And then CN Rail can't move as many cars. It is this giant ripple effect that is affecting many, many parts of the economy. But at the end of the day, given all of these concerns, they generate $21 billion in free cash flow for the quarter. So good businesses keep getting it done. Speaking of good businesses, Visa reported revenues up 27% in Q3, payment volume up 34%, cross-border volume was up 47%. Now, Visa is such a good proxy for the economy. That total payment volume, they put it right at the top of every earnings release.

And I just think it's such a good proxy for the economy. It literally looks exactly like the shutdowns and reopening of the economy over time when you graph that out. So it is great to see that the cross-border volume also pick up for this business. It's still way down from pre-pandemic. So when it's up 47%, it's from a very low base. So I mean, that sounds great, but this is still low. I mean, look, cash is dead. sounds great, but this is still low. I mean, look, cash is dead. Visa and MasterCard, barring a decentralized protocol like Bitcoin coming in, and that's a whole nother discussion, but their moat seems impenetrable. And it continues to have margins that are way too good to ignore. And I tweeted today, what are the best businesses in the world? And I thought Visa, Amazon Web Services, MasterCard,

and the core Google search business. Earnings season is validating this thesis that I have right now. And Visa is just such a great business. And I'm happy to be a shareholder. Yeah, I'm happy you talked about the base effects with Visa because it's easy, especially if you're getting started investing. You see like cross-border volume increase 47% and get really excited. And I could even apply that to airlines right now. They're saying like these numbers are up 50, 60%. Well, okay, no one was traveling last year.

So of course they're up. But I think it's, you know, it's always important to put these things in context, but clearly it's a, it's a great business. Yes. Yeah. You're, you're able to kind of make up whatever story you want using statistics like the airlines. I remember one day during the pandemic, like it was like Q4 and they're like, Hey, look, you know, flights are up 80% from, you know, Q2 when we had the shutdown. I'm like, oh, okay. So like five people flew this year, like from the three people that flew in Q2 from Atlanta to Georgia, like to Georgia, like, come on, this is the same. This is a base of zero, right? So it's

very easy to, to, you know, make a story. All all right speaking of numbers up big may I say one thing about TFI yeah international before you start on it so um so yeah your second favorite French Canadian running this business right second favorite you're my favorite French Canadian yeah I mean, come on. Alain Bedard is a wizard. All right, so TFI International, ticker TFII on the TSX. It also is dual listed. It trades on the New York Stock Exchange. Now, this company, I mean, you can grab – we have all these like big technology companies, you know, dominating, posting these crazy good results.

If you graph their performance, their stock performance over the last two years, boring old trucking company TFII is dominating everything. It's been incredible. Q2 operating income was up 226%. Free cash flow up 68.9%. Revenue up 130%. So how is that possible, right? It's because they acquired UPS Freight, which is already doing great. I would love to be able to get in the boardroom just just to be a fly on the wall in how on

earth he convinced them to sell him that asset for 800 million dollars it has some of the button yeah when was that acquisition it closed in q1 okay okay oh wow so q2 is like the first it actually working so now it's like tfi i or tfi freight yeah i've seen them yeah yeah yeah yeah so i mean if you drive around and you see the swoop like a blue swoop on the trucks they have different brands that they acquire and then they they put the swoop over right canpar is their their last mile delivery parcel service that competes with UPS parcel service. Anyways, speaking of Canpar, the last mile delivery segment is crushing it from e-commerce tailwinds. So I've been telling you all how great of a roll-up strategy TFI has been, and it keeps winning.

So the stock is up more than five times since I added it to the Stratosphere model portfolio. So my members have been making some money on this he convinces people to buy these assets that are quote unquote distressed he turns them around makes them amazing and highly highly profitable in their network so tfi continues to get it done it's a boring business and it is an awesome stock yeah that's uh that's one i wish i would have had especially my tfsa because it does pay a dividend right it pays it pays a growing dividend yeah there you go but um yeah i'll keep an eye on it maybe at some point uh you may i'll click buy along with shopify at the same time um the next one so canadian national rail so okay they came out with their earnings last week. Revenues were up 12% year over year. Again, take that with a little bit of a grain of salt because last year

revenues were down with everything that was going on with the pandemic. Net income went from 545 million last year to 1.034 billion. Most metrics were up compared to last year. So it's definitely encouraging. Things are starting to pick back up. Some little issues here and there, like Brayden said, with auto shipments that are impacted by, amongst other things, chip shortages. What's still weighing on the stock? And some people were asking me like, oh, it so cheap like i don't understand it's really the the bid that dated for kansas city southern and people are questioning specifically the breakup fee that canadian national rail would be on the hook which is roughly two billion dollars canadian as you can see with the money that they're pumping out i mean they would be able to afford it but the that's not the point.

The point is that was it really a bit ill-advised if it doesn't get approved by U.S. regulators? And I guess we'll see. I'm a shareholder. It's not a huge position for me. So I will kind of just hold for the time being, kind of see what happens, give it a little more leash. Obviously, I would like the bid to work for that $2 billion breakup fee and just the fact that it will give it quite the network going all the way to Mexico, both coasts on the Canadian side and all the way to the Gulf of Mexico as well in the U.S.

So it would give them, I'm not even sure if they, like, is there another railway that has that much of a network in North America? No, not even close. Yeah. So really, I mean, a significant competitive advantage. So I think that's my take on them with their earnings. The big story with them, it's still that bid for Kansas City Southern. It's up in limbo right now. And it feels like it's been in limbo for quite a while now. So I guess we hurry up and wait. As do-it-yourself investors, we want to keep our fees low. That's why Simone and I have been using Questrade as our online broker for so many years now.

Questrade is Canada's number one rated online broker by MoneySense. And with them, you can buy all North American ETFs, not just a few select ones, all commission-free so that you can choose the ETFs that you want. And they charge no annual RRSP or TFSA account fees. They have an award-winning customer service team with real people that are ready to help if you have questions along the way. As a customer myself, I've been impressed with Questrade's customer service. Whenever I call or email, every support rep is very knowledgeable and they get exactly what I need done quickly. Switch for free today and keep more of your money. Visit questrade.com for details. That is questrade.com. Calling all DIY do-it-yourself investors. Blossom is an essential app for you. It has been blowing up with now more than 50,000 Canadians plus and growing who are using the app. Every time I go on

there, I am shocked. The engagement is amazing. This is a really vibrant community that they're building and people share their portfolios, their trades, their investment ideas in real time. And it's all built on the concept of transparency because brokerage accounts are linked. And then once you link your brokerage account, you can get in-depth portfolio insights, track your dividends, and there's other stuff like learning Duolingo style education lessons that are completely free. You can search up Blossom Social in the app store and join the community today. I'm on there. I encourage you go on there and follow me, search me up. Some of the YouTubers and influencers and podcasters that you might know, I bet you they're already on there. People are just on there talking, sharing their investment

ideas and using the analytics tools. So go ahead, blossom social in the app store, and I'll see you there. Another interesting proxy for reopening, Starbucks. Revenues were up 78%. Now, this is crazy to me. They had same store sales growth of 83% increase in the US. My God, they passed 5,000 stores in China finally. And they did highlight their cold drinks segment that is doing really well. They're expensive and they fill a craving on a hot summer day. So I'm not really surprised. Now, when inflation is here, you want to own great businesses with pricing power. I talk all the time about how important it is for long-term compounders, businesses that are able to charge premium prices and then raise them. Starbucks is a perfect

example of that when you order your non-fat vanilla oat milk, half sugar, no froth, hint of hazelnut frappe. I got it. I got it out. Is that even an option? Oh, believe me. I go there and I hear some wild drink choices. So that's definitely – you could try to order that, see what they come up with. Do you have a Starbucks drink that you what see what they come up with do you have a do you have a

starbucks drink that you go go to or no uh not really i mean i tend to in the summer just get um cold brew iced coffee with just some cream and then the winter probably would be a uh just say grande or whatever their sizing is i i always get confused i always say large and they're like oh he's a he's one of those guys one of those yeah and uh put a shot of espresso in there if i really need a red eye or whatever it's called yeah that's kind of my go-to yeah yeah so there you go things are reopening and people are going to starbucks and spending all kinds of money. So good for them. All right, last on the list, Spotify. Spotify is down 7% today. There was some softness in monthly active users,

that MAU number that everyone talks about in software. That being said, monthly active users, MAUs, were up 22%. They are free cash flow positive, barely, like they make a few bucks, but they're aggressively pursuing their optionality in audio, which is podcasts, exclusive rights, and perhaps you're listening to this podcast on Spotify right now. I like Spotify long-term. Honestly, it has the best engagement of any consumer application. Really low churn, great network effects. Premium subs were up 20%. Ad-supported subs were up 24%. Their funnel of ad-supported users funneling down, converting to premium subscribers.

It works really, really well. During the quarter, they did buy exclusive rights to the huge podcast you may or may not know called Call Her Daddy for $60 million. It was a barstool sports podcast. They have some proving to do here. I'm not going to lie. I am bullish on Spotify, but they have some proving to do here. I'm not going to lie. I am bullish on Spotify, but they have some proving to do here because they took Joe Rogan exclusive. And Joe Rogan's numbers are down a lot since the deal.

And it's because he can no longer do this omni-channel experience. People watched it on YouTube. People watched it on whatever platform they were on before. And now it's like he's not getting that algorithm boost. Maybe it's the YouTube factor, but his metrics are way down. So it might be one of those things where they're going to have to spend a lot of money like Netflix until they have this big land grab before it really starts to work. Subs grow, and then you have this operating leverage, kind of like the Netflix strategy, time will tell. You got to spend a lot of money to do it.

So that's what the bears will say. They'll say, this is like another super CapEx expensive to go exclusive on this stuff. But if the strategy works out, I mean, Netflix is a prime example of how it can work out long term. Yeah, I'm surprised Netflix and Spotify haven't gone with a hybrid pricing strategy where, yeah, I know, a less expensive subscription with, you know, some ads, not a lot, just a few every now and then that enhances the experience. And same thing for Netflix. They could still charge, let's say, half the price, but you do have some ads that like, you know, one had halfway through or something like that. I'm surprised they haven't kind of played with that a little more just to cry try and get more subscribers that do pay for the content i guess just like what's the what's the value proposition of like hey pay us but you're still gonna get some ads yeah no it's true no i get it but you know you try it out doesn't work uh you say cmo from the canadian investor doesn't

know what he's talking about that That guy's stupid from that podcast. Yeah. So, I mean, Spotify, there's a lot of things to like long-term, but Teladoc, Spotify, these SaaS businesses that are super fast growing are very expensive and they're priced to perfection. So when you see massive drawdowns, when there's little bumps in the road, if you're an owner and you bought this thing expecting for them to be no bumps in the road, no volatility, when they're priced for perfection, you're going to end up selling it at the worst time. So you got to be willing to hold this stuff, focus on the business. Something like Spotify, you might be a subscriber and know really well how the business works, how it operates, what it could do better, what it couldn't do. And you would be able to firsthand see the platform.

Now that's an advantage for something like this because it's going to be a bumpy ride. If you're a shareholder, when something is priced to perfection, there's going to be hiccups and then the stock price will act accordingly. It's going to drop 7% in a day like it does today. So if you own this stuff, you got to be able to stomach some volatility. Yeah, no, very well put. Growth companies, that's what you're in for. It's what you sign up for when you buy shares. Exactly. If you can't handle big swings, then you probably should reconsider investing in growth companies. That's as straight as I can say it. Yeah, well put. All right, guys, I really hope you liked this kind of 2.0 version on the week.

We're experimenting with this, see what it is. Cause you know, we used to mix news and then investing concepts and deep dives. We said, Hey, let's strip that out because people still want to hear news. It's also a nice exercise for Simon and I to discuss these things and keep in the know. So I really enjoyed, you know, looking at this stuff. So we will do all kinds of industries. It's not just going to be tech. It just happened that big tech reported today. So we're not going to not touch on it. And then we'll keep the regular programming. We'll see how it goes. Let us know if you like it. Follow us at Twitter at CDN underscore investing. You can give us some feedback there. Thank you guys so much and we will see you

next week. Take care. Bye-bye. The Canadian investor is not to be taken as investment advice. Braden or Simone may own securities mentioned on this podcast. Always make sure to do your own research and due diligence before making investment decisions.