The Canadian Investor - Earnings roundup - Canadian Tire, Home Depot, Freshii, Nutrien, Nvidia, Canada Goose and more!

Episode Date: August 26, 2021

In this second episode of the week, we’re doing an earnings roundup because it’s earnings season!  We’re talking about recent earnings of Canadian Tire, Home Depot, Freshii, PetCo, Nutrien, Nvidia, CAE, Sea Limited and Canada Goose  Tickers of stocks discussed: CTC-A.TO, HD, FRII.TO, WOOF, NTR.TO, NVDA, CAE.TO, SE, GOOS.TO   https://thecanadianinvestorpodcast.com/ Canadian Investor Podcast Twitter: @cdn_investing Simon’s twitter: @Fiat_Iceberg Braden’s twitter: @BradoCapital See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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I'm Brayden Dennis, as always joined by Simon Belanger. And we have another Earnings Roundup episode for you today. We got five Canadian names. Simon's going to come out with the Canadian names and I got five US names. Keep it equal there. We got all kinds of different industries. We got fast food. We got pets. We got retail. We got everything for you. What's going on, Simon? Are you burnt out from laying sod in the backyard yet? No, I'm still feeling good. Went mountain biking yesterday, so just feeling good. And I should be pretty sharp even though I'm no longer on vacation. Yeah. Well, I mean, it's pretty hot out there, so we feel for you. Speaking of home renovation and

work in the backyard, we got two names relevant to that out of the gate here, especially with good old Canadian Tire. They reported recently. Simon, do you want to give a roundup on that? Yeah, they had a record quarterly e-commerce sales of $856 million. Revenue increased 23.9% year over year to $3.91 billion. Let's keep in mind this is a good example of the base effects last year and I had mentioned on a podcast where there were challenges with their website so it really looks like they've improved that in a significant way. They had large increases in sales for all their

retail segments. So for those of you not aware, that includes Canadian Tire, Sports Check, Marks Warehouse, Helly Hansen, and their gas stations, which is Gas Plus. They had net income Net income of $259 million. Earnings per share of $3.64 versus a loss last year. And they announced a dividend of $1.17 per share. So overall, it really looks like a solid quarter for Canadian Tire. And sounds like they've rebounded quite well from the pandemic. Yeah, you know what? We knocked them pretty hard in Q2 of last year because they just weren't prepared. We talked so much about when the pandemic hit,

companies that had been preparing for an omni-channel experience with retail, in-store, and through their e-commerce channels. Those companies who were prepared and already building out some of that technology excelled and had some of their best numbers ever. And companies that were laggards to it really got hurt because they just weren't prepared for it. So it looks like they've picked up their game. So we'll give it to Canadian Tire here. Good for them.

I'm just reading this here. Helly Hansenansen that's part of the canadian tire brand and i completely forgot about that they make they make great equipment so if you're if you're a skier you're a snowboarder well well familiar with their stuff so um yeah there's there's other brands in there too right like you forget they do sport jacket and march work warehouse so things look to be positive for them. Speaking of a business in the retail space that continues to just be on fire is Home Depot. Revenues were up 8.1% to $41 billion. This was the first time they crossed the $40 billion mark in sales in a quarter. So this is a record sales quarter for them.

Earnings per share were up 12.7%. They consistently grow the dividend at least 10% a year. Sometimes they grow the dividend up to like over 30% per year. And so just to give you an example, they paid a $1 per share dividend in 2012. And now they pay a $6 per share dividend for the year. So classic compounder, this business. I was looking on a chart of their 10-year return on invested capital. And this business pretty much always has 30% high 20% return on invested capital,

always has 30% high 20% return on invested capital, growing earnings per share at 20% over the last 10 years, compounding into a growth rate. This is a retail business done right, is Home Depot. And man, they just keep compounding and it's a really, really well-run company. Yeah. And from experience, I've ordered quite a few times now with doing like i mentioned some backyard stuff and for the most part i've done pickup and sometimes they'll offer items online that you can't buy in store but they'll actually ship it in store so it's really seamless they've done quite well i am a shareholder of home depot and very happy to own them and definitely if you're looking a bit more for growth though Home Depot is probably relying more on organic growth for their stores whereas you have a Lowe's for example they'll probably be growing a

bit more with new store openings I haven't looked into those all that much but just food for thought anyone looking to get exposure to that industry. And now we'll do another Canadian name, Freshie. So Freshie reported revenues of 5.63 million. That's an increase of 57% year over year. Net loss of 626,000, which was slightly less than last year. They were still free cash flow negative to the tune of $690,000. As of June 27, 2021, they had 38 million cash versus 40 million last year. And Freshie was really impacted by COVID-19. When I was looking through their earnings, management still said that with COVID-1919 it's still quite challenging to their operations they had 95% of their stores open as of June 27 2021 but again that's very dependent on where COVID goes if there's new variants that show up aside from Delta and we're already seeing what Delta is doing south of the border. But yeah, management just reiterated that

and couldn't find any guidance going forward, which makes sense. And for those of you who were wondering if it's more of a company-owned store model or franchise model, they do get most of their revenue, so $5 million from franchisees and the balance $628K or so from its company-owned store. So it's still a very small business too. As do-it-yourself investors, we want to keep our fees low. That's why Simone and I have been using Questrade as our online broker for so many years now. Questrade is Canada's number one rated online broker by MoneySense, and with them, you can buy

all North American ETFs, not just a few select ones, all commission free, so that you can choose the ETFs that you want. And they charge no annual RRSP or TFSA account fees. They have an award winning customer service team with real people that are ready to help if you have questions along the way. As a customer myself, I've been impressed with Questrade's customer service. Whenever I call or email, every support rep is very knowledgeable and they get exactly what I need done quickly. Switch for free today and keep more of your money. Visit questrade.com for details. That is questrade.com. Here on the show, we talk about companies with strong two-sided networks make for the best

products. I'm going to spend this coming February and March in an Airbnb in South Florida for a combination of work and vacation and realized, hey, my place could be a great Airbnb while I'm away. Since it's just going to be sitting empty, it could make some extra income. But there are still so many people who don't even think about hosting on Airbnb or think it's a lot of work to get started. But now it is easier than ever with Airbnb's new co-host network. You can hire a local quality co-host to take care of your home and guests. It's a win-win since you make some extra money hosting on Airbnb, but can still focus on enjoying your time away. Find a co-host at Airbnb.ca forward slash host. That is Airbnb.ca forward slash host. This is such a frustrating story to me.

They come out, it's this founder-led business. It's this fast-serve restaurant model that is serving all the things that people, all the millennials are going to love, which is healthy salad bowls, burritos, and smoothies. It's a great idea. The branding's brilliant. They have these moss grass walls with the subway tiles on the stores. Everything is just perfect. This thing is going to explode. They come on the TSX, they go public, and they have all these growth trajectories and plans to open all these stores. Investors go, great, this is a perfect story. This is a perfect product market fit for fast serve restaurants. Well, what happens?

The business from a unit economics perspective kind of sucks. And they didn't hit any of those growth trajectories. And now they are actually net closing stores. So frustrating to me, man, because this is ripe. The market is ready for Freshie, and they just can't get it done. I don't know what it is. I've had hot takes on it being a potential takeout target. This IPO has been an absolute disaster.

I think it IPO-ed at like $ bucks. It trades for two bucks today. It's just so disappointing. It seemed like it had perfect product market fit, an innovative founder, good franchise model, and I can't figure out why it can't succeed. Yeah, and I have a a personal anecdote with for them about 10 years ago, I tried them for the first time. And my experience was quite, I mean, I agree with all of the things you said, but I found that for the price, it was really expensive. And their store was actually located right next to Ottawa U campus. So I found it expensive, even though I had a full-time job. So can you imagine some of the students that are living on a limited budget? I can see them just saying like, okay, you know what?

This is nice, but I'm just going to go to Subway and pay half the price, right? Yeah. At the same time, though, you'll get one of those bowls and it'll be like nine bucks. If you add chicken, it'll be like maybe 12 bucks. Now, I don't see that as an outrageous price point, but another personal anecdote for me is every time I get a salad bowl or a burrito bowl, the size varies so different based on location and whoever makes it. So I don't know if it's a training problem, but sometimes my bowl is a quarter full. Sometimes it's full to the brim. I can't even open the thing. I'd prefer that if I'm hungry, but you know what I mean? It's like like why is there such this varying experience franchise to franchise and and that is not good when it comes to a franchise model

in the quicksand restaurant business yeah good point i guess we'll see how go how low it goes or if they turn things around going forward i hope they turn it around it seems like the perfect millennial fit. All right, moving on. Company called Petco. Ticker, woof. By the way, best ticker. I think it's got to be. Petco, woof. That's amazing. Revenue increased 20% year over year. Revenue on our occurring subscription was up 60%. I think that's the main highlight number that I look at for a business like this, is they're trying to be that subscription service. Even if they are primarily brick and mortar retailer, pets are a perfect business for subscriptions. They're executing that well. The pet services segment was up 49%

as they do this omni-channel experience with e-commerce and in-person retail and veterinarian services. They have 150 vet hospitals. Something interesting, we were just talking about Canadian Tire. I noticed that if you go to Petco's e-commerce site, you get redirected to Canadian Tire's pet food.

And I was shocked by that. That was just me messing around on the internet yesterday. So clearly there is some room for expansion outside of the US with their e-commerce in general. And here is just an example. I was curious because you've talked about Chewy on this podcast before many times. And Chewy is that e-commerce direct-to-consumer pet store business. So these are some comparable numbers. So Chewy did $2.1 billion in sales. Petco did $1.4 billion in sales. Chewy's growing at 30% per year on sales, and Petco's growing at 20%.

Net income-wise, Chewy did $25 million, and Petco did three times at $75 million. And the market cap of Chewy is $36 billion, and the market cap of Petco is only $6 billion. So you look at those numbers, I mean, growth, yeah, Chewy's growing faster, but not quite as profitable. And from a total sales perspective, it's not crazy. I mean, it's about one and a half times more, but the market cap is six times Petco's. So I don't know if that's cognitive dis times more, but the market cap is six times Petco's. So I don't know if that's cognitive dissonance, like the market just overvaluing Chewy and undervaluing Petco, or the prospects of a direct consumer business is just so much more scalable.

I don't know the answer to that, but the market is telling you this. Yeah, and maybe there's also the fact that PetSmart owns a majority stake in Chewy. So maybe that has something to do with it. But I really, I'm not sure. Yeah, your guess is as good as mine. Yeah, no, I'm just laying out the comparison and showing the huge disconnect in valuations between something that might be sexy versus something that's brick and mortar. Yeah. Yeah. Good point. So now to our next name, Nutrien. Nutrien is actually the former potash company or potash corp. They merged with Agrium a couple of years ago,

and now they're obviously known as Nutrien. So Nutrien is a Canadian fertilizer company. They're based in Saskatoon. It's the largest producer of potash and the third largest producer of nitrogen fertilizer in the world. The outlook, what they mention is that the outlook for global crop and fertilizer market continues to be very strong and they're positioned to benefit from their structural advantages as a global leader in that space. They've increased their full 2020 year outlook for their adjusted EBITDA guidance by over 1.5 billion and it was supported in part by their quick action to produce an additional 1 million tons of potash, illustrating the power of potash teams over there and their flexibility, reliability, and low-cost six-mine network.

So just an overview of what Nutrien is. They had a really good quarter, so their sales were $9.76 billion. That's up 16% from last year. Free cash flow was $1.41 billion, up 20% from last year. Adjusted EBITDA was $2.21 billion, up 29% from last year. billion up 29% from last year. Cells for crop nutrients, crop protection, and seeds were up 20%, 9%, and 7% respectively. Those are their three major segments. Crop nutrients would be potash and nitrogen, and crop protection would be things like herbicide, insecticide, and fungicide. So overall, very good. The one thing I should have looked into, but I didn't, was their dividend payout. I know they do pay a dividend, so my apologies for that.

But overall, a good quarter for Nutrien. When it comes to a commodity producer, Nutrien is rock solid. And this might get grouped in as a somewhat cyclical business because it is a commodity producer. And maybe there is cyclicality to the commodity they produce, but the actual demand for their product is rock solid through pretty much any market cycle. So Nutrien is a great business.

This merger was smart between Potash and Agram. So Nutrien's a great business. This merger was smart between Podash and Agrium. And anyone from the middle of Canada knows how big and strong this business is together, especially from Saskatchewan. All right. Yeah, and moving forward with Nutrien, I mean, come on. It's a great business. The only thing that I tell you time and time again is I simply do not want to own commodity businesses. And that's the way I do it.

But if you are a shareholder of this, this is a good business. Moving on to NVIDIA. Nvidia, the chip designer. So revenue was up 68%. They had record gaming revenue of $3 billion, up 85%. So the business did $6.51 billion in revenue, and three of it was from gaming. So that's a big segment for them. Data center was 2.37 billion, up 35%. And non-gap net income profits was up 92%. So everything was just across the board, up a lot, at least 50% on most categories. So this business is killing it nvidia designs chips they own the ip and then they pretty much let taiwan semiconductors tsm do the contract manufacturing they're dominating in gaming ai data centers and more and chip design and how the whole industry works is very fascinating and a somewhat complex rabbit hole. I've been getting into it more and more.

And once you get it, it starts to click, the difference between the different companies. But if you don't feel like doing lots of due diligence on each one, just owning an ETF that owns a basket of them may be smart. But my God, chip designers like NVIDIA have done so well. I mean, their stock prices are just bonkers on the last 10 years on the chart. I have heard from analysts on other podcasts and on other con calls that NVIDIA's artificial intelligence technology is years ahead of the competition for reasons X, Y, and Z for the certain categories that they serve. So if you aren't willing to do the research, an ETF that owns a basket of these things could be a good play. I think Invedia is the highest quality and the most advanced, but you're paying the highest

multiple for it. You're seeing the growth and you're seeing the upside long-term, but you're seeing the growth and you're seeing the upside long term. But it's such a good business once you realize that they just designed the chips and have these really, really high gross margins and EBITDA margins. And it's probably a good horse to bet on for the future. Yeah, and just for NVIDIA, I'm pretty sure they were one of the first companies to start using machine learning. That's probably why they're so far ahead of everyone. That's right.

Yeah, their AI and machine learning is just the clear leader from the rabbit hole of research I've gone down on the last month or so. rabbit hole of research i've gone down on the last month or so yeah and it for the uh the gpus i mean they've only them and amd are pretty much the only two that are in that business too forever amd bought radeon um a while back and with nvidia they were the two main players so i mean i'm not surprised to see them there and amd is doing quite well on their end. I mean, as a group, it's been fantastic. And if you want to own the group, I mean, TSM, like ticker TSM, Taiwan Semiconductor, which stands for TSMC, this business basically makes all the chips for the entire planet. So outside of Intel. So that's going to be part of that basket as well. As do-it-yourself investors, we want to keep our fees low. That's

why Simone and I have been using Questrade as our online broker for so many years now. Questrade is Canada's number one rated online broker by MoneySense. And with them, you can buy all North American ETFs, not just a few select ones, all commission free so that you can choose the ETFs that you want. And they charge no annual RRSP or TFSA account fees. They have an award winning customer service team with real people that are ready to help if you have questions along the way. As a customer myself, I've been impressed with Questrade's customer service. Whenever I call or email, every support rep is very knowledgeable and they get exactly what I need done quickly. Switch for free today and keep more of your money. Visit questrade.com for details. That is questrade.com.

is questtrade.com. Here on the show, we talk about companies with strong two-sided networks make for the best products. I'm going to spend this coming February and March in an Airbnb in South Florida for a combination of work and vacation and realized, hey, my place could be a great Airbnb while I'm away. Since it's just going to be sitting empty, it could make some extra income. But there are still so many people who don't even think about hosting on Airbnb or think it's a lot of work to get started. But now it is easier than ever with Airbnb's new co-host network. You can hire a local quality co-host to take care of your home and guests. It's a win-win since you make some extra money hosting on Airbnb,

but can still focus on enjoying your time away. Find a co-host at airbnb.ca forward slash host. That is airbnb.ca forward slash host. That is airbnb.ca forward slash host. Yeah. So now moving on to something a bit different, CAE, which I said in French because it is based in Montreal. It's a, for those of you. Did that stand for something or are you just saying it in a certain way? Oh, I just said the acronym in French. I just

wanted to say it in French. Okay. I was wondering if that was an actual word and I just didn't know that because I thought I knew this name pretty well. Anyways, I digress. Yeah. So CAE is a, for those of you who are not familiar with them, is a Canadian manufacturer of simulation technology for in the aerospace mainly mainly modeling technology and training services for airlines aircraft manufacturer healthcare specialists and defense customers cae has both contract with civilian aerospace and military aerospace revenues were up 37 percent to 752 million that's year over year net income was 47 million versus a loss of 110 million last year free cash flow negative once more 147 million in the red and versus 92 last year and they had a

total backlog that went down seven percent to 7.9 billion compared to last year. And their CEO, Marc Perrin, did mention something interesting regarding their outlook going forward. We expect continued strong year-over-year growth in fiscal year 2022. As recovery takes hold in our end markets, we integrate our recent acquisitions and ramp up our cost-saving initiatives. The slope of recovery to pre-pandemic levels and beyond continues to depend on the timing and rate at which border restrictions can be safely lifted and normal activities resume in our end markets and in geographies where they operate. So overall, again, they seem to have been quite affected by the pandemic.

It'll be interesting to see how it progresses this year and next year as well. What I can tell from what the CEO said is there is still quite a bit of uncertainty just because of the pandemic. So much uncertainty. But if we look back to when this wasn't a thing, this wasn't a concern. This is an awesome business. And I would much rather play this side of the value chain than owning the airline specifically, especially with the tailwind of so many pilots need to be trained up and who's the game in town at CAE to use their simulation technologies

for people to learn how to become pilots and other modeling tech that they do to serve those airlines. So if we look back to 2019, I was this close, Simon, to buying a position in this company as a dividend growth play. And now the whole landscape looks so different, of course. But it is a strong model, and it is an important part of the value chain, and they have a really strong position in what they do. C Limited.

We got two more here. C Limited. For those who are unfamiliar with C Limited, they do e-commerce, fintech, and gaming in Southeast Asia. Revenue increased 159% year over year. So their video game segment, which is G Arena, had users up 45% and paying users up 85%. Their e-commerce platform called Shopee, gross merchandise volume was up 88%. And their fintech total payment volume was up 88% and their FinTech total payment volume was up 150%. So it's very similar to

Mercado Libre in Latin America, which is this e-commerce and FinTech business in their geographic region that they serve, which is Latin America. C-Limited is doing it, but also with this huge gaming business in Southeast Asia. And if you look at those two geographic segments, you have Southeast Asia, Latin America, these are locations in the world that have the fastest adoption to these digital services because they lagged behind in them and now all of a sudden they seem to be coming out as leaders and a lot of this growth has been accelerated from the the environment we're dealing with so this is another one of those internet companies capitalizing on secular trends in e-commerce and fintech. And there is still such a long runway for growth in these emerging markets,

especially since the adoption to these services still is somewhat nascent. So C-Limited is like way too good to ignore right now. I've been interested in owning shares, but guess what? Tencent owns 25.6% of C, which a lot of people don't know about. So there's some nice arbitrage given how Tencent is so damn cheap. I think it's up like 8% today, but it's been getting punished as the Chinese internet monopoly crackdown does continue. Tencent did come out with earnings and they now have a fair value of their estimate portfolio of a whopping $223 billion. I bring that up because

they own such a big stake in C Limited. When it comes to C, you're paying very high entry multiples at this point, but it is $160 billion in market cap. So you have to ask yourself, is there still significant opportunity? My answer, my gut feeling is yes. Uh, but you are betting on continued spectacular execution and growth. So I believe that to be possible. Um, the G arena, which is the gaming platform has 70, 725 million active users, which is pretty insane. Like their gaming platform platform 725 million active users so three quarters of a billion people are using that another risk to continue can consider with g arena the gaming platform is their game called free fire has over 150 million daily active users. So there's a lot of concentration there, right,

on the success of Free Fire. Games can come and go over time, so it's something to consider. But right now, this business and G Arena and Free Fire are running at full tilt. And they've been growing for years and years to come, so maybe there might be some real staying power here. Well put for Sea Limited. I don't have too years and years to come. So maybe there might be some real staying power here. Well put for Sea Limited.

I don't have too much to add to that. I mean, you know the business better than I do, and definitely I own a bit of them as well through Tencent. Now we'll go on to our last company, another Canadian play, a name that I'm sure everyone will be familiar with. I won't need to explain what they do. So Canada Goose, they announced a share repurchase program of up to 10% of their current outstanding shares. Their revenues were up 115% to $56.3 million.

Net loss of $56 point seven million or fifty one cents per diluted share they had global ecommerce revenue increased by eighty point eight percent again and this has been there's been huge tailwinds for them I like everyone else for e-commerce They are launching footwear in the fall and direct-to-consumer revenue was up almost 3x to $29.4 million. Gross profit margins jumped to 54.5% compared to 18.4% last year. Again, it was a bit of a situation of base effects and of course transitioning a lot of their sales over to online would be the reason that their margins increase so much i know one last thing that they announced recently is they will be i believe it's by the end of the year i could be wrong for that but

they'll be removing fur from their products altogether so it's been something they've been considering for a while and it's also been one of the main criticism of canada goose uh for uh you know animal activists um and things like that so it is something they'll be doing uh shortly they've been getting crap about that as long as i think i've been alive about the real fur they were using. I mean, these jackets, they're pretty nice. They're pretty comfy. You're paying a pretty penny.

So I'm not surprised to see that they got some pretty nice gross margins for a physical product. Now, when it comes to direct-to-consumer of these very expensive high-margin products, that's even better for Goose is seeing that direct to consumer market increase and seeing some of that adoption, like we've talked about with other businesses, as consumers are seeing that accelerated adoption to e-commerce and going directly to the brands that they care about and going right on their website. And for a company like Canada Goose and for a company like Lululemon that only sell their goods in their branded locations,

consumers know to go direct to consumer to the actual website of those said businesses versus on some other marketplace or some other platform or some other retailer that sells it. I mean, the margins are just so much more advantageous to go direct to consumer on your own platform. So a company like Goose and Lululemon are set up perfect for consumers to continue to accelerate that direct-to-consumer experience adoption. And this business, let's not kid ourselves, it matters a lot what goes on in China. That's a huge, huge market for Canada Goose. Mainland China loves these jackets.

Yeah, no, that's definitely a good point. And I know they're not big tech, but of course that's always an added risk of doing business in China. Obviously right now they're focusing on big tech over there, but you have to keep in mind the Chinese government is always a wild card. Regardless if the company is listed in Canada in the US and they're a Canadian or US-based company if they have a significant portion of their operations in China there is always the wild card that the Chinese government could come up with a

new policy unilateral new policy and just enforce it right away. So that's always something to keep in mind because a lot of people will own businesses and not realize that such a significant portion of their revenues come from China. Apple is a great example. I was going to say, Apple, we forget how many iPhones Apple sells in China and how attached at the hip that business relationship between Apple and the CCP really is. Yeah. And they really, honestly, like Apple does not have much leverage there because most of their merchandise, their iPhones and things like that, most of them are manufactured over there.

Big parts of their supply chains are there. Plus, you add in the fact that the consumer base in China is such a big portion of their revenue. I mean, what leverage did they have with the Chinese government? Like, none. I mean, not much. I've done some research on that relationship that they have. It is quite fascinating what Apple had to do to win over the Chinese Gov. So it is quite complex and it's a little shady at times. But I mean, they did what they had to do. They were able to start selling into the biggest market on the planet. So, obviously, very important in the history of Apple, given that not only is it a huge consumer market, but also so important for their supply chain and manufacturing. is August 24th. We will continue to do our two episodes per week. We appreciate the support so much. If you haven't checked out our new website, that is thecanadianinvestorpod.com. I think I got

that right. It's thecanadianinvestorpodcast.com. I just typed in the URL, thecanadianinvestorpodcast.com. It's brand new. Yeah, I've put it in the show notes. So if you guys are confused on what the link is, just look at the show notes. I don't even know the URL to our own website, but you can go on, see all the show notes there. You can leave us a voice message directly on the platform. So if you're on your web browser on the right side, there'll be a button called send us a voice message and then as well on your mobile device. And that'll give you a chance to write on our website,

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