The Canadian Investor - Episode 13 - What impact could the Coronavirus have on your portfolio?

Episode Date: February 24, 2020

This week on The Canadian Investor Simon and Braden talk about the impact the Coronavirus could have on some sectors and companies. We finish the episode with our Tip of the D’eh!Tickers of stocks mentioned : AAPL, AC.TO, TDOC, CCL, RCL, NCLH, DIS, EXPE, BKNG, TSLA, SPCE, BCE.TO, SJR-B.TO, T.TO, RCI-B.TO, CAR-UN.TO, AQN.TO, JD, BABA--- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/the-canadian-investor/messageSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Welcome back into the show. This is the Canadian Investor Podcast, made possible by our friends and show sponsor, EQ Bank, which helps Canadians make bank with high interest and no fees on everyday banking. We also love their savings and investment products like GICs, which offer some of the best rates on the market. I personally, and I know Simone as well, is using the GICs, which offer some of the best rates on the market. I personally, and I know Simone as well, is using the GICs on a regular basis to set money aside for personal income taxes in April of every year. Their GICs are perfect because the interest rate is guaranteed, and I know I won't be able to touch that money until I need it for tax time. Whether you're looking to set some money aside for a rainy day or a big purchase is

coming through the pipeline or simply want to lower the risk of your overall investment portfolio, EQ Bank's GICs are a great option. The best thing about EQ Bank is that it is so easy to use. You can open an account and buy a GIC online in minutes. Take advantage of some of the best rates on the market today at eqbank.ca forward slash GIC. Again, eqbank.ca forward slash GIC. Live from the great white north, this is the Canadian investor where you take control of your own portfolio and gain the confidence you need to succeed in the markets. Hosted by Brayden Dennis and Simon Belanger. Hey everyone, welcome back to the Canadian Investor. I'm joined by my co-host Brayden Dennis.

Brayden, how's it going today? It's good, man. It is feeling like spring today. I don't know about up in Ottawa, but Toronto, it's like 10 above. I was riding my bike this morning. It just feels good, man. The sun, it feels great. Yeah, I'm good. I think it's similar weather, probably not 10, but I think it's a few degrees above freezing. It's probably like minus 20 in Ottawa. Don't lie.

No, not even. It's actually really nice and sunny outside, so we'll probably go walk the dog a bit later. So it should be a nice day. So I guess we'll get started just to give people a bit of a breakdown what we'll talk today. So we'll start off with talking about the coronavirus and what impacts can come from an investing perspective. Before we get started, though, I wanted to mention we're not trying to make light of the situation. We understand it's ever evolving and we understand that a lot of people have been put in difficult situations because of that so our thoughts go go out to them but today we'll be really focused on the investing component um so brayden did you want to get started yeah that's that is a good point

because this is affecting a lot of people, primarily in China, with 99% of cases being in China. But that is a good point. A lot of families are being affected by this a lot. It's obviously a horrible crisis over there. But from an investing perspective, we're going to talk about what this means for your portfolio. Industries are going to get affected by this. means for your portfolio. Industries are going to get affected by this. And I am so in the camp of just hold on to stocks for a long, long time. Don't worry about the market. Don't stress out about this stuff. But let's be serious. This is going to affect the economy when China is not

making parts. You saw Apple change their guidance. They're saying that they basically can't manufacture phones right now. It makes sense. I used to work in automotive. I know the industry really well, and this is going to affect the global supply chain that is automotive. There's tier one, tier two, tier three suppliers, and you literally cannot make parts if a tier three supplier from China can't feed a tier two supplier that's in Germany that assembles a part in Detroit in North America so it's like let's be honest this is going to actually create real business results so we'll see how it shakes out I mean don't sell your portfolio. Like guys, seriously, these things happen all the time. There's always a reason to be not investing. And it's funny when

you go on Yahoo Finance or whatever, Bloomberg, it just says, oh, market up or market down on coronavirus news. It's like always, that's just the headline, right? So it's really good for them to be able to sell news like this. So this is a goldmine for the CNBCs of the world. What is your take, Simon? Yeah, so definitely those, like you just mentioned, those are companies that will be adversely impacted by the coronavirus. Yeah, it is sometimes I find a bit sensational. I do also find that the data is evolving very quickly. So it's hard to wrap your head around what's going on and some

of the consequences. But like you said, Apple came out, they revised their guidance and said they would be below expectation, at least on a short term basis. So there's other types of companies that will be negatively impacted. Obviously, airlines, I think, is one of them. Air Canada is an example. Other types of businesses. We have travel companies. So we were texting about that.

Cruises, for example. Yeah. So Carnival, Royal Caribbean, Norwegian. Those are all three that could be. It's all about the mindset, right right if people are too scared of traveling um what just just to bring that to the point what a nightmare that is those people are trapped on that uh cruise in japan they're stuck in their rooms and they just don't know what's going on so So I feel really bad for them, man. I literally could not think of anything worse than being confined to a cabin. And more and more cases are coming out.

Over 30 Canadians on the ship have been tested positive with the coronavirus. So that's bad, man. Yeah, and I think some of them actually were just flown back maybe a couple days ago yeah i think i think the u.s had a plane that one picked people up i don't know canada's plane was stuck in portugal as of yesterday so apparently there was a tweet by one of the ministers saying that they were going to be picked up and then he deleted the tweet like an hour later so it's pretty controversial man to be honest sorry to start to derail you there but uh i feel horrible for these people man no i definitely i agree with that so it's it's definitely a hard situation and but we have to remember because of these things happening i think it might scare a lot

of people into traveling um and therefore the impact that will have on those companies indirectly as well i would think in exp or booking holding so obvious if there's a bit less canadian companies because those are a bit more global companies uh listed in the u.s for the most part but air canada is a canadian company another one we had talked about was disney so they also put some money aside for its theme parks in uh in china um and i think they're still closed if i remember correctly and they're unsure exactly when they'll reopen so that's what the problem we're seeing too is companies are they're like kind of they're providing guidance but they are also like sounding just not sounding the alarm but more

advising people that you know it's hard for them to even know how to provide accurate guidance at this point because they don't have much information and it's changing on a daily basis. With travel, like hysteria or not, like if this is overblown or not, it doesn't matter because fear itself is what's going to drive the financial markets. And in this case, fear itself is going to drive real business results. So that's where I find this kind of interesting, right? Where fear and hysteria often drive financial markets, but fear and hysteria in this case is going to actually affect these airline companies because if people are scared of flying, actually affect these airline companies because if people are scared of flying well air canada doesn't have their seats full and that's not good right so yeah bookings.com all the travel all the cruises sorry like i could definitely see them getting rocked especially when people are trapped in their cabins for weeks on end it's like hey let's uh fire up the group chat and say uh let's

go on a cruise like that's a pretty hard sell right now. I don't think that's going to work. Yeah, and they might be forced just if they want to keep their cruises booked to some level, they might be forced to offer some huge discounts, which then obviously affects their profit margins and indirectly should affect the stocks as well. So those are definitely industries that could all have an impact. Another one is Starbucks. So if people are not going out to grab a Starbucks,

I know they have a big expansion plan in China, then it's definitely going to impact the results, especially where it's a coffee. So it's not like if you don't go to Starbucks for a month and you were a daily customer, it's not like a month after when you start going outside again and your routine continues. It's not like you'll have all the coffees that you did not have in that past month. So they could be affected a bit more. And I think as well, toy makers, I read something that a lot of their supply chains are in China. So they're going to be effective. that a lot of their supply chains are in china so they're going to be effective i think some of them are even delaying toys to 2021 new toys because they can't get them produced in time and another

one that we talked about was tesla so they have their factory in china um but apparently could could this be the pin that pops i'm okay with going on the record and saying it's a bubble like i i straight up think it is a bubble um do you think this could be the thing that finally brings tesla back to life i would say i really don't know that's my i mean it could it could also i shoot up like i i'm not gonna even try to predict tesla it seems like people especially retail investors a lot of people believe believe in Elon Musk, so not institutional investors. You're a smart man by not commenting because it going up more is probably the most realistic result. And actually, I heard something interesting or I think I read a couple of days ago and they were saying that in their opinion, one big part of the mania with Tesla and I think also Virgin Galactic, if you read about that one, is retail investors not having those fees now in the US so you can trade for free.

So I think some of them, there's not that little $5 disincentive to not go crazy. So people trade for free free so they get into those stocks and start speculating especially man we're into a long run bull market a lot of new investors are coming in and thinking that this is just simple stuff right i really hope he doesn't listen to the podcast because i was out for drinks with a guy yesterday and about to about to roast him he said to me he whispers to me, this company that he works at, I'm not going to disclose what it is. He goes, I think it's going up.

They're about to split the stock. I go, okay, what does that mean? He goes, man, you know what happens when stocks split? They go up. I'm like, man, what are you talking about? That's 101 right like obviously stock splits don't mean anything so i think it's pretty funny there is a lot of like new investors coming in you bring up a good point uh no fees in the u.s that must be nice man we

got to get that in canada here yeah but at the same time if that that's like, I'm not sure if it has that big of an impact, but at the same time, if it's creating this mania, I mean, it could be a bit worrying for certain stocks. So anyways, it's not, we're not trying to make anyone panic here, but it's a bit crazy just to watch those companies go. So companies that could be positively impacted. companies go. So companies that could be positively impacted. So one of them, I actually know this one quite well. So we'll probably spend a bit more time on it right now. It's Teladoc Health. So Teladoc is a very interesting company. It's part of my portfolio. So it's part of the more growth component. I allow about 15% of my portfolio in that. It's a company I bought three years ago now, and it's been my best performing holding up to date. It is losing money still. However, they're getting closer and closer to being cashflow positive. Their earnings are coming

out this upcoming week, so the week of February 24th. So it'll be interesting how it goes. But to give you guys an idea, past five years, they've had 79% growth in sell from 2014 to 2015, 60% from 2015 to 2016, 89% from 2016 to 2017, and 80% from 2017 to 2018. So they've really had strong growth. It's a company I think will most likely have some tailwinds from the coronavirus because telehealth is you can see your doctor on your phone essentially. So it's still a very small an industry that's going very rapidly. Teldox has been around for I think 10 years, if not more. They've been publicly listed for about five. And it gives you the ability, especially if you have a flu or something like a coronavirus, it gives you the ability to see a doctor, even if you were to self-quarantine and get some treatment obviously over the phone i know they also have a mental health division it's also great for rural areas so smaller cities where people may not have access to a doctor without driving like one two three hours so it's a really

interesting industry it is growing rapidly again it is losing money and I'm not saying that it's not highly valued it is trading for quite a multiple but that's like eight billion in market cap if I remember correctly sorry yeah I think eight yeah I think eight or nine billion but management has been really good and they've been green growing mix of organically and by acquisitions as well. So they have presence in the States, in Canada, in Europe as well. So they're really emerging as the market leader for that.

Man, this 80% revenue growth consistently is insane. They're not generating any real cash, so it's a little early for me, but I can see why you have a position here. This is a really, really good business model, to be honest. It's really smart. I always thought when I was a kid, if I have the flu, why am I going to go get everyone sick? So this makes a lot of sense, right? You can see a doctor remotely talk to them. This is just really genius, to be honest. So I've actually seen that some corporations also are signing up for this for their employees, so that if they're

sick, they can talk to doctors while they're at home. This is really, really smart. So if they can mix in that B2B business as well, I could see this really taking off. It is a little early for me, but I can see why you've done well on it. 80% revenue growth for like five years consistently in a row. Really nice margins. Yeah, I think they could be profitable to see them too. It looks like they're trending towards potentially generating real profits in the next year or two. So that's really exciting. As do-it-yourself investors, we want to keep our fees low. That's why Simone and I have been using Questrade as our online broker

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Here on the show, we talk about companies with strong two-sided networks make for the best products. I'm going to spend this coming February and March in an Airbnb in South Florida for a combination of work and vacation and realized, hey, my place could be a great Airbnb while I'm away. Since it's just going to be sitting empty, it could make some extra income. But there are still so many people who don't even think about hosting on Airbnb or think it's a lot of work to get started. But now it is easier than ever with Airbnb's new co-host network. You can hire a local quality co-host to take care of your home and guests. It's a win-win since you make some extra money hosting on Airbnb, but can still focus on enjoying your time away. Find a co-host

at airbnb.ca forward slash host. That is airbnb.ca forward slash host. Yeah, exactly. And they have two main lines of business. So like you said, they'll get insurance carriers to sign up. So pay them a fee for the amount of people. And essentially people can use them as required. The other source of revenue is kind of pay as you go. So for a session you pay. And it's also great for physicians because it's much more efficient for them to do those than actually being in an office and then waiting for the person. And they can

actually, you know, view a patient in between patients while they're in their medical offices. So it's really great. There's also some barriers to entry because it's highly regulated, whether you're talking about the States, Canada. so it's highly regulated that's why it's an industry that has taken some time there's a technology component but also a regulation component so that's why it's been uh taking a bit more time than i think people expected to to gain popularity so you've done insanely well on this let's touch back on a topic we talked about last week are you interested in trimming the position or are you just gonna let this baby ride um so i have trimmed a little bit i'm just kidding yeah the main reason is it's a

bit different than brookfield for me is where it's still a high growth company but they're not profitable yet so the risk is higher um they're very highly valued. So I've basically recouped my investment and then I'm just letting it ride. It was starting to be a pretty big part of my portfolio given that I don't want to. I can imagine. It's done so well. Yeah, exactly. So it represents the biggest part of my growth portion of my portfolio. So other companies that could get a tailwind.

So obviously pharmaceutical companies such as Johnson & Johnson. I know they're working on a vaccine. There's other ones that are working on vaccines. E-commerce could be a big tailwind if people are afraid of going shopping outside. I know in China, JD.com could potentially get a tailwind. Alibaba as well. Depends if it applies their supply chain or not. So that's also an impact.

But they could kind of even themselves out or potentially be a tailwind. Yeah, those are all really good points. I have heard that the coronavirus can live on surfaces for up to 12 days. So I wonder if it's going to have any real impact for e-commerce globally. I don't see that being a huge fear. I haven't heard much about it, but that's pretty insane. So it gives you an idea of what kind of legs this virus actually has. If it can survive on surfaces for that long, that's really scary. Combined with its week-long incubation period, this thing could really, really take off and stun China in a big, big way.

So I'm never a pessimist in financial markets, straight up. I am always the positive guy. But this could really cripple China's economy. So I'm wondering when they're going to be getting back to work. Manufacturing is just at a complete standstill. And I mean, it's got to be pretty grim. You've seen videos of the cities are just completely locked down. You got to wonder how accurate the numbers coming out

of China really are. You really got to wonder. And at the same time, I don't truly believe that they're censoring it in a way that, you know, North Americans think that they might be. I think that it's just really hard to quantify when their biggest priority is getting people healthy rather than collecting, you know, good metrics to report to the rest of the world. So I think the data, like we got to cut them some slack.

Like it would be really hard to actually give a solid number. You saw that. Did you see the video of that? They did a time-lapse of those two hospitals that are beside each other that went up in like legit a day. It was insane. Like it was so insane insane i don't know how they did this but they're building hospitals in legit like a few days like start to finish it's really really incredible so honestly i gotta give them props for you know taking this really seriously because it will make a material

difference in their economy yeah exactly and they've already i think revised their economic growth uh downwards which tells you something for for china as well um i personally think they're they're being as transparent as they can i know in the past like they're very famous for uh censoring um In the past, they're very famous for censoring people in China. And I know at the beginning, the doctor that was calling out seemed like he was censored as well. But at this point, the Chinese people are very proud people. And I do not think they want to be blamed for a potential world epidemic 10, 15, 20 years from now historically. So I think that's driving a pretty big factor which is fair in terms of which is fair like i get it i do i do yeah

yeah and the world health organization has said that so far to them it seems like china is trying to be as like they have no reason to think that they're not being as transparent as they can at this point so i'm going to put you on the spot here simon you are a shareholder in carnival cruises what do you do i'm really putting you on the spot here no i mean it's a it's a good question um i think the worst is probably um for that those that specific company i think the worst is probably to come um i would probably honestly i would probably sell my position and find better places to to put my money in it's also a very cyclical type of business too so it'll go with the economy and then you have that on top of it um Again, we'd start for us to know it's still the beginning,

but because there's so much uncertainty and fear, I think it's a big, big reason. I'd probably go ahead and sell it and invest it in companies I'm more confident in going forward. Yeah, that is a good point because uncertainty is the name of this game. Like no one truly knows. If anyone was to say for sure what was happening with this outbreak, they'd be lying to you.

So companies don't know. Epidemiologists around the world don't know. They're just tracking this thing and trying to get a better handle on it. Who knows? It could be like a SARS where it just kind of goes away um not an epidemiologist by any stretch but I basically failed first year biology but SARS kind of just died out like it just it just didn't have legs so maybe that's what happens with this, hopefully. But you got to wonder. You really do got to wonder. Yeah, exactly.

So now we'll switch to companies that will probably not be impacted too much by the coronavirus. And these companies, they might actually get a tailwind in terms of valuation because they might be a bit perceived as a safe haven for some investors but in terms of their actual business i wouldn't see them being majorly impacted so uh we have telecoms i don't think they should see much of an impact so bell shock shock communications rogers uh telus the big telecoms in canada um res, so some examples, so REITs, Real Estate Investment Trust for our newer listeners. So those are basically companies that own real estate, different type of real estate, depending on the company, some are more diversified. Some examples, so there's Canadian apartment property REITs, so people are not going to

vacate their apartment if there is a coronavirus. So it should have pretty stable cashflow. I know Braden owns Allied Properties REIT as well. So I don't think same thing. They own Muller Commercial, if I remember correctly. Yeah, they own some of the best property in Toronto. It's office commercial space. So yeah, prime example of something that I do not see being affected. A lot of these really stable cashflow businesses, you don't see them getting affected. Another company that scores really high on my ranking model for my stratosphere premium subscribers is Algonquin Power. This thing went up on Friday when everything else went down. So you're starting to see some cash flows move into these more liable utility types. So I would see them performing much better during a downturn.

Obviously, as expected, that's kind of why people hold on to those yield goes, as well as for the growth and the income. So I mean, it could be a good place to be, but you might see them start to get a little rich in valuation. So I really hope this thing blows over. But in the meantime, it would be nice if stocks became a little bit more attractively priced in the meantime. Yeah, yeah, definitely. And I don't know if it's the start of something

so we're recording this uh saturday so yesterday that was i think the markets were down the u.s markets about one percent canadian tsx what about like 0.6 percent uh so around there so i don't know if it's the start of something um it's been really weird since ever that's been the uh it's been found out for the coronavirus because there's been companies coming out like we mentioned just mentioned apple disney um some very big companies just coming out saying look we we have to revise our guidance we've put some money aside and even say like we actually we're just kind of giving guesstimates at this point because we don't know where this has gone involved but yet the stocks have just been crushing it since the start of that i think the past week was one of the first weeks of the year where it was a negative week

so it it'll be interesting to see where it goes of course for us i think we've mentioned it before we're looking to find really good companies at bar not bargain prices but fair prices um so that might you know if this continues a little bit it might create a lot of opportunity especially for those who have cash on the side yeah like this sounds like the most pessimistic episode on the canadian vestry of all time but uh let's be serious the market has been chugging along for the most part, despite the recency bias of the end of the week that we just finished, you know, starting to turn the other way. But this is just a blip. Overall, the market has done really, really well since the beginning of 2020. So hopefully it keeps coming up. But at the same time, I'd like to see some sales. So there's a lot of companies that are on my radar right now that are just fantastic business models. I think we've talked offline that I think Visa is the best company in the world. If you could just own Visa and MasterCard and just retire, just sleep on those forever.

I do find it funny. I'm looking at you on the video right now. We're both wearing some Lululemonmon so maybe we should invest in the stock yeah um i'm actually it's not lululemon it's a similar no i know it looks it looks it's got the lines on the top but they yeah i got it that's um i think it's nordstrom's brand that uh okay interesting yeah yeah but I do have lots of money. Yeah, I know you do. So, Simon, what is the tip of the day today? Okay, so a bit to what we just talked about. So our tip of the day is shop around if ever you want to keep a small portion of your portfolio in cash or if you have an emergency fund so in terms of savings

account oftentimes the big banks will give you like pennies on the dollar for interest rates so they'll give you 0.5% if you're lucky if you'll see 1% in a savings account whereas if you look at different I think right now the top rate that I found was Laurentian Bank almost 3 percent LBC yeah yeah exactly and that's not a promotional rate so it's actually their their rate you know it might change from time to time but it's not like a promotional rate for three months or something and their CDIC insured so Canadian Deposit Insurance Corporation so what that means is it's it's backed by the federal government and that's a really the

thing you want to look at when people when you choose a savings account because there might be some shadier places out there i'm personally with motive financial they offer a 2.8 interest rate i think you said eq bank yeah eq bank just bumped theirs up two weeks ago to 2.45 i think it's not the highest but i their interface is really nice it connects to their bank really well so there's a lot in the space of around two and a half to three like those those are definitely the highest ones on the market and this is a really good idea because everyone should have obviously a cash account that they have an emergency fund. If they're saving for a down payment for real estate, I'm trying to think of other examples. If you're saving cash, you may as well throw it into these things because it's so liquid. It's

just like any other bank account. It might be easy to just, okay, I'm'm gonna keep it in my checkings you know a couple hundred K and a checkings account just just don't do that you can get you can get at least inflation with some of these high interest savings accounts so this is a really good idea I agree this is a great tip Simon yeah and it's really important I know it can be a little extra work and it's much easier to just keep it with your bank if you're with one of the big banks but at the same time it's really important i know it can be a little extra work and it's much easier to just keep it with your bank if you're with one of the big banks but at the same time it's your money so do you want them to collect the the interest on the money you have in your accounts and not giving you much in return or do you want to collect something that'll actually keep up with inflation and again we're not saying like obviously stay. We're not saying to sell your stocks or anything like that.

But if you do keep some cash on the side for whatever reason, shop around and it's in your best interest. That's a good idea. This episode, talk about the grim coronavirus and all the pessimism in the market. And then we talk about high interest savings accounts. Everyone's going to be liquidating and going to cash. No, guys, seriously, stay invested, collect those dividends, ride it out. This is a long-term game. Think about all the times financial markets were not the most positive and think about where it is now. They always think, oh, it's at historic highs.

In the 60s, it was at historic highs at one point. That's how this works. So just like I say with 52-week highs, high highs on a stock usually mean higher highs because the business is doing well, executing well. I do think that this coronavirus is going to have serious impact to several businesses. Primarily anything that's manufacturing in China is going to be affected.

There's just no way around it. Airlines, travel companies, vacations, these businesses are going to be affected. Even if it's driven by fear, if people are scared and they're not flying that is going to affect real business results for these companies so it is something to keep in mind i'm seeing a lot of cash flows go into these you know safer cash flow producing businesses so that's why you have a diversified portfolio and you have those pieces in your portfolio so that when these kinds of things happen, you're still getting that nice yield. And great, great tip on the high interest savings account, because compared to a bond, like how similar are those yields from 3% to what you can get with a T-bill? Well, yeah, I mean, yeah, for a treasury bill, I think it's probably higher than that treasury bill. I'll be honest. I've been treasury bill. I'll be honest.

I've been checked recently. It'll be lower than John. Yeah, that's for sure. But then you have high risk. So, yeah, if it's backed by the Canadian government, it's a great option and it's super liquid. So there's really if you shop around, you know, it's that's what we want to help everyone out is just taking control of your finances. And that's another we want to help everyone out is just taking control of your finances. And that's another aspect of it.

With that being said, thank you guys so much for listening. This is The Canadian Investor. Go to GetStockMarket.com. If you scroll down to the bottom, you can submit questions. We've been getting lots of good requests. We're not going to cover one this episode. But, Simon, I think we've got to do a mailbag episode because we have a bunch of companies that people want to want to hear about yeah exactly uh we are i think it's a great idea to do a mailbag episode um it might take us a

little bit of time because some of the requests we get we're not very familiar with the company so we'll need to do some research so we want to like provide some good content to you guys, not just looking at their financial statement without really knowing what the- It's nice though. There's been some deep picks that people have requested. I'm like, oh, this is a thing. This is a business I didn't even know about. So I love that. That's really cool. Thank you guys for listening. We will see you next week. The Canadian investor is not to be taken as investment advice. Braden or Simone may own securities mentioned on this podcast. Always make sure to do your own research and due diligence before making investment decisions.

Thanks for listening to this episode of the Canadian investor. To get a list of the top Canadian dividend stocks right now and other valuable investing resources, go to GetStockMarket.com.