The Canadian Investor - Episode 17 - Canadian Tire, REIT ETFs and More Stock Market Talk

Episode Date: March 17, 2020

In this episode, we discuss REIT ETFs and Canadian Tire . We also talk about the on-going market volatility and we finish the episode with our Tip of the D’eh!Tickers of stocks mentioned : MA, V, LULU, VRE.TO, CTC-A.TO, VNQ, USRT, CGX.TO, PSA, SRU-UN.TO, AP-UN.TO, REI-UN.TO, LYV--- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/the-canadian-investor/messageSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Welcome back into the show. This is the Canadian Investor Podcast, made possible by our friends and show sponsor, EQ Bank, which helps Canadians make bank with high interest and no fees on everyday banking. We also love their savings and investment products like GICs, which offer some of the best rates on the market. I personally, and I know Simone as well, is using the GICs, which offer some of the best rates on the market. I personally, and I know Simone as well, is using the GICs on a regular basis to set money aside for personal income taxes in April of every year. Their GICs are perfect because the interest rate is guaranteed, and I know I won't be able to touch that money until I need it for tax time. Whether you're looking to set some money aside for a rainy day or a big purchase is

coming through the pipeline or simply want to lower the risk of your overall investment portfolio, EQ Bank's GICs are a great option. The best thing about EQ Bank is that it is so easy to use. You can open an account and buy a GIC online in minutes. Take advantage of some of the best rates on the market today at eqbank.ca. Again, eqbank.ca. Hey everyone, it's Simon here. I wanted to just do a quick note before the podcast goes online and let you guys know that you might notice that we won't be posting necessarily every single Monday morning. However, we most likely will be posting more often than we used to. So we just had one last Saturday was an emergency episode. We'll have the one that's going to go out tonight,

which was recorded by Brayden and I on Tuesday and and it will go out on Tuesday, March 17th. I'm not sure if we'll have another one later this week or not, but you can rest assured that we'll be posting very regularly. It may just not be Monday morning like we used to, but most likely we'll be doing a couple episodes every week. So we want to really bring you guys some good content, some valuable content, do some research if there's some research to be done. We understand that the situation when it comes to market is rapidly evolving with all the COVID-19 news and we definitely want to bring our

take from a Canadian perspective on that. So stay tuned. Make sure you refresh your podcast listening apps and you're subscribed if you're on Apple podcast to our Canadian investor podcast. So you'll be sure not to miss an episode whenever we post it. Live from the great white north. This is the Canadian investor where you take control of your own portfolio and gain the confidence you need to succeed in the markets. Hosted by Brayden Dennis and Simon Belanger. Welcome back to The Canadian Investor. We are recording this on Tuesday. What day is it today? March 17th. I am in complete social distancing mode. I'm going to lose track of what day it is soon. How's it going, Simon? It's going. Yeah, it's kind of hard to keep track of what day it is when you're not going to work and just working from home every day. But

considering everything and the situation a lot of us are in, it's going pretty well. Considering everything and the situation a lot of us are in, it's going pretty well. Yeah, I just think about how lucky a lot of us are. And I just have so much respect for people who still have to be out there, you know, working, whether it's making ends meet or if they're, you know, on the front lines. If they're doctors, nurses, people in the hospitals, outrageous amount of respect for them. And honestly, that's why we're staying apart from each other so that we can try to limit the impact on the capacity of people that need to be in the hospital at one time. I believe they're calling it flattening the curve.

And this is really, really important. So everyone's got to do their part to stay away from each other, essentially. So if you can isolate, you should. All right, Simon, let's talk about what's going on in the stock market. Yesterday was an absolute bloodbath. Today's recovered slightly. Yesterday, the Dow finished down 13%. I don't know what the TSX finished. I'd have to look that up. Absolute nightmare. Air Canada is down another 26% today. Airlines are getting absolutely slaughtered. Those kinds of stocks, it makes sense that they're getting slaughtered.

People don't want to fly. Airlines have had a rough go in the last 20 years. They finally figured it out, i'd say in 2014 consistently being profitable that was a real tipping point for them and then now this again is it is it too early to catch this knife simon i mean i personally have started dollar cost, and I think we've mentioned it time and time again. That's why you want a dollar cost average, because it'll be really hard to pinpoint the bottom. I've not invested the majority yet.

I've just started some position in companies that I really, really liked. I mean, on a datative basis, it's pretty intense. You're getting, what, 10% drops, 10% increases. It's hard to say. I mean, over the long run, it seems like, well, I mean, over the long run, it seems like at least on a short to medium term basis, the trend seems to be going down and we're still trying to understand the full impacts that this whole situation will have in the economy but yeah that's my quick take on it in terms of if it's too early or not what about you brayden i agree man this is why i don't use stop losses because stop losses my whole portfolio would be liquidated right now. I've never seen so many notifications of positions being up and down 10% day after day. The volatility is insane. You know what? We all know that this is going to be around for a while.

COVID is definitely making huge impacts on the economy. I feel really bad for small business more than anything. So, you know, not the big publicly traded stocks that we generally talk about that will be impacted. But I do really feel for small business locally. And I do think that it can always get worse. It could get much worse before it gets better. But if you think you can time the bottom, you're lying to yourself, get some self-awareness, put the ego aside. You're not going to get it at the bottom perfectly. So what do you do? You dollar cost average at a reasonable time. I am doubling, tripling those contributions from normal because

I just want to do that while the stock market falls. I've been waiting six years since I turned 18 for this. This is finally my moment. And here we are. So it's probably and definitely can get worse before it gets better but it's impossible to time and i'm going to continue to dollar cost average yeah i mean i'm gonna do the same so i started some more positions i started the visa i think i mentioned recently i started position mastercard so I started a position in MasterCard, so I started a position in Visa. You can tell we like those companies. that for them i'm also dollar cost averaging but they could see definitely some short-term pain because i think they've closed their stores for at least a two weeks period if i they did they did close up shop that's correct yeah and one thing that i do love from them is they actually said

they would pay their employees uh even though that they were closing their stores and i think that goes to show um a bit how that company is run and they have a human side to their company. But you have to keep in mind, too, they also have a pretty good online business. So that part will probably be helping them a bit more while their retail locations are closed. In terms of just a side note from the markets, I know Brayden and I are very lucky.

We're fortunate. We're able to work from home and keep getting paid. But if some of you have been impacted by the coronavirus and you lost your job or maybe you're laid off for a period of time, make sure you do some research. Some employers, like I just said, Lululemon, they'll continue paying employees. But some other employers might not be able to do so. So there's employment insurance. You can always try to apply.

Your employer would be required to submit your record of employment for that directly to Service Canada. So keep that in mind. If you don't qualify for employment insurance, look at the provincial programs. insurance, look at the provincial programs. I know the Quebec government did announce that they would have a program similar to EI for those who do not qualify for employment insurance but are affected by the COVID-19. So that's just a little kind of sidetrack because I know some people may be impacted differently. So the other thing I noticed in terms of investing in these really volatile times, at least from my perspective, and even though I have a plan, I'm dollar cost averaging in these good businesses, is it's not easy. I mean, it's really not easy to pull the

trigger, even though you might have a plan. There's always this thing in the back of your mind, this fear that things could get worse am i really doing the right thing investing right now so just want to make people like it's normal it's human nature to have those feelings but i think it reinforces the case for dollar cost averaging and just so you know even though braden and i are very analytical and we have a plan um i mean at least i can't speak for braden but at least I feel that, I mean, it's not easy psychologically to keep investing when you have that much uncertainty. It does create a little bit of self-doubt and imposter syndrome because you're like,

you have to reevaluate your whole plan, but you don't really, you don't. But what you should do but you don't really, you don't. But what you should do is use this to improve. If you're not looking at this as a way to have some self-awareness and look at how you can improve not only your portfolio, but how you're going to react about this in the future, use it and learn from it. So I wrote a, I wrote an Instagram post yesterday, um, about what to do during market corrections. And I wrote four things and I said, have an emergency fund. We talked about, you know, we've always talked about personal finance wise, having an emergency fund, you know, start with three months expenses, you know, get it up to six months expensive, you know, depend expenses depends on how, you Depends on what you feel comfortable with, what your situation is, how stable is your job. That would be a good start. The next thing is don't refresh financial

news every two seconds. That's going to make you really question what's going on when you see 12% day after day. And then I said, all right, this third step, which is use this to improve. And then the fourth step is what we already talked about earlier in this episode, which is dollar cost average. So if you can turn out financial news, that'll help you a lot. If you have an emergency fund, your stress is going to go down. Learn from this in the future and how you manage your portfolio, and then continue to dollar cost average like we've talked about. It's not easy and it'll really show you how you react. But seriously, if you do focus on the numbers like we do, we know that good businesses are able to perform for the long haul, have safe balance sheets.

So being able to do your due diligence will help you sleep at night. And if you aren't doing your due diligence, then perhaps an ETF, broad market ETF is the right thing for you. It really could be. You could improve your performance just by doing that because it might affect your psychology. You might be better suited psychologically to own a big basket of stocks. So speaking of ETFs, we are going to talk about the VRE or other ETFs that are available in the real estate investment trust space. We've had some questions about real estate investment trusts. So the big obvious one that a lot of people use is VRE from Vanguard. It has a 0.35% management expense ratio. Simon and I talked about this thing a little before we got on here,

and there's a couple concerns that we have. It's that big two holdings in the top 10 are SmartCenters and RioCan. It makes up 20% of it just with those two holdings and real estate investment trusts via retail, which could be fine. They've been heavily undervalued for a long time, and they're just getting absolutely punished even more right now because people are not going into retail stores. We just talked about Lululemon not being open. So let's think about that for a second. And we look at the other holdings,

office suites, the one that we always thought was just so, so safe. I'm looking at my office suites going, uh-oh, what's going to happen if everyone's working from home? So there's a lot of questions about real estate investment trusts right now, where they've always been kind of counteracting what happens in the stock market. And we're just not seeing that the case right now, because this pandemic is affecting everything. During 2008, in the financial crisis, you know, if your portfolio is just falling through the floor, but at least you could go out go into coffee shops you know ease your mind and not be stressed out about leaving your house this is way different and something that

we've really never seen before in a big global stock market like this so i'm interested to see your take as well on the real estate investment trust etf yeah so um theRE.TO, so I yeah, we talked about it before the recording this episode. So I have the same thing, I think has about 17 holdings in total. So it's very concentrated. My personal approach, if people are looking to invest in REITs in Canada, I'd probably go with the basket approach. That way you can select four or five REITs, the strongest ones I would recommend. So, you know, a good balance sheet, not too much debt. Retail REITs right now, given the uncertainty, I would definitely wait and see. There's probably some that will come out on the other side, even the stronger.

But the ones that are poorly managed too much debt It's not going to be good for them. That's for sure. So that would be my approach from a Canadian perspective I know the question we had it was asking in terms of wire REITs. They tend to be these REITs ETF they tend to be Higher fees so I did fine. I mean they're a bit higher than the traditional index ETFs with your you could be looking at the broader market there are some US ones that are interesting especially the VNQ and the ice shares US RT if I had to choose between both of them I probably would go

with the ice shares mostly because their expense ratio is lower than the Vanguard. And they offer a lot more diversification in terms of different type of REITs that the Canadian one would have. So those are some two examples. whenever you choose an ETF, make sure you at least research some of the larger holdings, some of the sectors, even if they're REITs, there's going to be a divide into residential, retail, industrial, office REITs, and so on. Also factor in some of the turbulence that they could be facing, especially, for example, office REITs. If some businesses go out of business because of this well obviously even if even if they have leases with a REIT well they won't be able to pay it so the vacancy rate might increase for a bunch of these different REITs so make sure you factor

that in and especially if you have a broker where you can buy ETFs without paying a fee I know Questrades offers it I know a few other ones do offer that so you can buy ETFs without paying a fee. I know Questrades offers it. I know a few other ones do offer that. So you can really dollar cost average in those types of ETF, really with small amounts of money over a long period of time and kind of absorb a bit more the fluctuations we might see in the market. Very good points. The ETF free commission is nice.

I like that. So VRE right now has a 3.8 percent yield that's as of january 31st so that yield has definitely gone up i'm just looking at the fact sheet from vanguard that yield has definitely exceeded four percent now based on what's happened since january 31st and i'm looking at the holdings and you know what? I do like these companies. I think a lot of them are pretty solid. First Service Corp, Allied REIT is one that I've talked about many, many times, scores very highly on my stratosphere investing ranking model. And I'm looking for companies that are growing the payouts, growing the distributions, because they're not actually

dividends. These units give out distributions, which is slightly different tax-wise. And Canadian Apartment Properties and Allied, those two, which are two of the top three holdings in this VRE, which gives me some hope, i i do think those are very very well run growth oriented REITs that will continue to do very well maybe apartment REITs that's not going to be affected by this at all i wonder how their stocks performed but um yeah yeah i mean there's a lot of other options out there too. You mentioned the US ones. I think younger investors should not get tricked into the trap of getting attracted towards really high yield real estate investment trusts right when they're starting out. We talked about investors who are just starting out getting very excited about super high

dividend yields that may not be safe, may not be growing, just maybe better places to put their money in the market. High yield REITs fit that category as well for me. I would recommend what you said is pick a few with high growth of the distribution, not necessarily high yield of the distribution right now. As do-it-yourself investors, we want to keep our fees low. That's why Simone and I have been using Questrade as our online broker for so many years now. Questrade is Canada's number one rated online broker by MoneySense, and with them, you can buy all North American ETFs, not just a few select ones, all commission free so that you can choose the ETFs that you want. And they charge no annual RRSP or TFSA

account fees. They have an award-winning customer service team with real people that are ready to help if you have questions along the way. As a customer myself, I've been impressed with Questrade's customer service. Whenever I call or email, every support rep is very knowledgeable and they get exactly what I need done quickly. Switch for free today and keep more of your money. Visit questrade.com for details. That is questrade.com. Here on the show, we talk about companies with strong two-sided networks make for the best products. I'm going to spend this coming February and March in an Airbnb in South Florida for a combination of work and vacation and realized, hey, my place could be a great Airbnb while I'm away. Since it's just going to be sitting empty, it could make some extra income. But there are still so many people who don't even think about hosting on Airbnb

or think it's a lot of work to get started. But now it is easier than ever with Airbnb's new co-host network. You can hire a local quality co-host to take care of your home and guests. It's a win-win since you make some extra money hosting on Airbnb, but can still focus on enjoying your time away. Find a co-host at airbnb.ca forward slash host. That is airbnb.ca forward slash host. look at what kind of debt they have, because depending on if their revenue will be affected,

regardless of the sector, you want to read that will be able to absorb some short term fluctuation. So that that's definitely my best tip. But like Brayden said, even better if they're increasing the distribution over time and their revenues are increasing as well. One that I do like in the States, and unfortunately we don't really have any in Canada. I know there's, I think, Storage Vault in terms of storage REITs, but I do like Public Storage, so PSA in the States. That's one I really like. I own it as well.

It's not a very fast-growing type of REIT, but it is very stable. Glows, I think, a couple percentage a year. Really on solid ground, low debt. And usually they're not too impacted by economic fluctuations because people, you know, they'll still need that storage oftentimes. Good point. All right. that storage oftentimes. Good point. All right. Let's switch gears slightly to another request that has come in for Canadian Tire, Canada's darling of a retail store that has not done particularly well as of late. And I can't imagine that this mess with COVID right now is helping them by any stretch.

We're going to give our take on it. I invest in growing companies that are capable of scaling globally or at least outside of Canada. I have a real appreciation for MidCap in particular, seems to be my niche, Canadian companies on the TSX that have global business or at a minimum North American business. And Canadian Tire just doesn't have the scale. The growth has been pretty much flatline. They'll go up with inflation and down with inflation pretty much all the way back to 2012. And I just don't see this as a great place for a long-term investor. I do think that it is trading at quite attractive valuations, at eight times earnings right now,

six billion in market cap, if these statistics are correct. Pretty high return on equity, not the highest return on invested capital. Four and a half times enterprise value to EBITDA is just outrageously cheap. So this would meet all my value screens, but not all of my growth with value screens. So I'm interested to hear what you have to say about this one too, Simon. Yeah, I was looking at their balance sheet a bit um just to get a sense of what they look like uh well the first thing for me is obviously it's retail so what we're seeing more and more is people the social distancing so i think they're going to be hit from a retail perspective there's not going to be as much people going to their stores so um i think they'll see a hit in their sales so

that's definitely one thing I would keep in mind the other thing is we were talking about this earlier I think they make if I remember correctly it's less than five percent of their total sales that comes from online so you can make a case for other companies other retail companies I mentioned Lululemon earlier where they have a solid presence online that's not really the case with Canadian Tire. So a lot of their sales might actually switch over to a company like Amazon that sell a lot of the same stuff that Canadian Tire would sell, probably not all of it, granted. So that would be one of the risks. In terms of valuation, I would caution people to use the trailing 12 months or even 2019 sales.

You have to keep in mind if you're looking at a PE, you're basing it on something. If the earnings are going to go drastically down in the next year or so, it might not be so cheap when you think about it for a second. If you make some projections and you think their it for a second, if you make some projections and you think their earnings are really going to drop a whole lot. In terms of their dividend, I was just looking at that now, it seems to be okay in terms of a free cash flow basis. But again, it's okay based on their trailing 12 months in 2019, but that could really change going forward. So this is one that I would probably, if I ever consider it, probably wait until this year is over and see how they do in the upcoming quarter is just to kind of get a better sense how their business is impacted.

The dividend is currently 5.77 so very juicy and 2019's payout ratio was 33 so they will be able to cover this next year i would i would assume unless their sales absolutely drop off a cliff from this which which could very well happen. I'm not sure. And you bring up a good point, Simon, is that it's really hard to value this business on trailing earnings. I think the dividend is actually relatively safe. I'd be more comfortable owning this as a high yielder

than a big oil and gas stock right now to be completely honest so if you're really chasing after the dividend yield which again this podcast has talked about many many times don't recommend i think i'd still rather own good old crappy tire at this price than you know what's happening with oil and gas at super, super high dividend yields but very unsustainable right now. And they have even worse macro factors happening for them. So we shall see what's going to happen. No one knows. That's the key with this no one knows no one has any idea

how this is gonna shake out no one knows what the recovery is gonna look like no one looks no one knows if the u.s is gonna be completely on lockdown i know san francisco is completely on lockdown right now. Ontario just announced today that we are going only essential services. Alberta joining. I wouldn't be surprised if Trudeau has another press conference and does that again tomorrow. So, you know, this could extend quite a while. Who knows? Yeah, and when it comes to Canadian Tire, I mean, I personally think there's better businesses out there that are going for a discount.

That's my personal opinion on it. The dividend does look really juicy. I mean, if you're looking for a juicy dividend, you might as well go for Macy's in the U.S. It's going, I think, 23% dividend. My God. Yeah, no, I'm just kidding. Obviously, I would not touch Macy's with a 10-foot pole. But all that to say, I mean, it's going to be interesting what happens this year with retail. I think it's going to be a bit with a bit like oil and gas as you're going to see some bankruptcies from companies that are just not well managed

and you'll see the stronger players come out even stronger after this whole thing is behind us who knows how long it'll be but that's my prediction is there's going to be a bit of a clean out in terms of retail businesses and the stronger ones will survive and probably thrive going forward. Speaking of potential bankruptcies and absolute mess of a company right now, Canadian stock Cineplex. We could talk about that one right now as well. They just rejected a takeover bid from Cineworld, the U.S. kind of equivalent to them. I don't know Cineworld at all until really I saw that they wanted to take over Cineplex.

I'm pretty surprised they're not taking this deal. I mean, the stock is down like 80% since they decided that no one's going to be in the movie theater for the foreseeable future. And it's interesting. I think when everyone's like, okay, we're going to close our doors for two weeks, the 14-day kind of self-quarantine, that seemed to be like the word on the street a week ago was, okay, we're going to close our store for two weeks. a week ago was, okay, we're going to close our store for two weeks. And then it was like,

okay, no, we're closing our store for the foreseeable future. No one knows when it's going to be back. So I don't know. I don't know Cineplex that well. I've seen it as just a deep, deep value play that I was always way too scared to touch. Thank God. And I wouldn't be surprised if they regret not taking this takeover bid. I mean, you saw what happened with movie companies that got a little bit too proud. Blockbuster. So we shall see. blockbuster. So we shall see. Man, there's so much unpredictableness right now. That's why me and Simon say, stick with quality companies. It's going to reduce your stress load a lot. Knowing when you look at your portfolio and going, that is a company I would like to own for 10 years minimum. That will definitely help the way you think about your portfolio, the way you think about market corrections, and your confidence to be able to then take your money now and put it into the stock market now and next week and the

week after. That's the key. I talked about learning from mistakes, or not necessarily mistakes, but learning from market corrections. That is a big one for me. I am so gung-ho on picking up quality right now that if you're not learning from this, then what's the point, right? So this is a really key opportunity to look at your portfolio. Realize what it makes you feel when you see 10% drops in companies that you were just maybe on the fence about. You're going to want to sell those, right? So you need complete conviction in your thesis. And that is my recommendation.

As do-it-yourself investors, we want to keep our fees low. That's why Simone and I have been using Questrade as our online broker for so many years now. Questrade is Canada's number one rated online broker by MoneySense. And with them, you can buy all North American ETFs, not just a few select ones, all commission-free so that you can choose the ETFs that you want. And they charge no annual RRSP or TFSA account fees. They have an award-winning customer service team with real people that are ready to help if you have questions along the way. As a customer myself, I've been impressed with Questrade's customer service. Whenever I call or email, every support rep is very knowledgeable and they get exactly what I need done quickly.

Switch for free today and keep more of your money. Visit questrade.com for details. That is questrade.com. Here on the show, we talk about companies with strong two-sided networks make for the best products. sided networks make for the best products. I'm going to spend this coming February and March in an Airbnb in South Florida for a combination of work and vacation and realized, hey, my place could be a great Airbnb while I'm away. Since it's just going to be sitting empty, it could make some extra income. But there are still so many people who don't even think about hosting on Airbnb or think it's a lot of work to get started. But now it is easier than ever with Airbnb's new co-host network.

You can hire a local quality co-host to take care of your home and guests. It's a win-win since you make some extra money hosting on Airbnb, but can still focus on enjoying your time away. Find a co-host at Airbnb.ca forward slash host. That is Airbnb.ca forward slash host. Yeah, I definitely agree. and just looking at their financial statements real quick i mean i'm not sure how they'll be making their interest payments i'll be honest with you i was just looking at that um it's not looking good for cineplex there's nothing smells a lot like bankruptcy yeah yeah so i mean it's i would definitely stay away from them if people are looking for a company entertainment that will probably have some more short-term headwinds but should come out pretty

well in the medium to long term i would probably look at disney in the u.s i think they they're definitely going to suffer short term but i think they're in a much better position than a company like Cineplex. Absolutely. And Disney's getting absolutely whacked because their part, I didn't realize, I've never owned Disney stock personally. I didn't realize that the parks was such a big portion of their business until I saw what the impact was on their Disney worlds in China when the Wuhan outbreak started, and they closed that. And then now all the US ones are closed. And I think of other experiential type businesses like Live Nation.

I think we've talked about Live Nation on this one, on this podcast. Another company, if you're not allowed of gatherings above 10 or 50 people, whatever it is that Trump and Trudeau have both come to, I think Trump saying 10 and Trudeau saying from Public Health Canada is over 50 is just not allowed in terms of size of gatherings. This company is going to get absolutely crushed. I have so many concerts that I was so excited for that I'm like, oh no i really hope this happens and i know i'm not the only one do you know tame impala simon that concert needs to happen no i don't know them do you go on spotify after and listen to tame impala all right guys i think this was a good episode get stock mark do we. Do we want to go a little bit, sorry, a little bit for our tip of the day? Oh yeah, give me a tip of the day.

I think we just forgot. Give me a tip of the day. Yeah, yeah, sorry. I need it. So our tip of the day actually goes back to what we were saying. So when you're reviewing a company and you're looking at their financial statements,

hopefully you are if you're considering them, especially right now. Like we mentioned, make sure you keep in mind that when you're looking at price to earning ratios or price to good cash flow ratios, any type of ratios that are looking at the past 12 months, past years, even looking at five, six years in the past. Well, those were really good economic years for the economy in general. And what we're going through right now in the next year, maybe a couple of years in terms of recession, will probably make those sales and earnings go down, at least on the short term basis. So make sure you factor that in when you're looking at the value or the price of a company.

factor that in when you're looking at the value or the price of a company when looking at the ratios we talk about quite a bit because relying on past ratios might be a bit dangerous in this type of environment so just make sure you factor that in that's a very good point uh the old disclosure past performance does not indicate future results. I think about the market falling right now, and I think about it's still pretty high when you consider the five-year trend. And it makes you wonder how overvalued stocks are. I'm looking at the Shiller PE, and it's starting to come back to normal median numbers. The Shiller P is basically the price-to-earnings ratio of the entire stock market, or it might be just the S&P 500. It's coming back to medium numbers on a long-term chart.

I think, well, forward earnings looks really bad. Does that mean that the market is still currently very overvalued? That's a deep question that I'm not going to be able to answer in this podcast. But I don't know if you – do you follow the Shiller PE much, Simon? I thought the Shiller PE was like looking at a PE on an average basis over like the past five or ten years or something like that. It's the current market p okay okay i mean i wasn't anyways i i don't i guess i don't follow it too much i thought it

was more at the average and really useful when you're looking at cyclical companies uh but i mean i could definitely be wrong um so i guess from what you're saying, no, I don't follow that a lot. But I know on a P ratio, the S&P 500, for example, I know we're still at fairly high level historically, but it's getting a bit closer to the average. Yeah, it's approaching it, which makes me question, like, does that mean with what you just talked about with forward earnings, is it still heavily overvalued? And that's a question that I'm not going to answer for you. Who knows what's going to happen?

What we will say is dollar cost average. That's going to do it for this episode, guys. Thank you so much for listening. Thank you for the list of questions. Thank you for the kind emails. Thank you for the kind DMs on Instagram. Appreciate it all. Hope you guys have a good week.

Stay safe. Stay safe, self-isolated. Today's St. Patrick's Day. You know, maybe have a couple FaceTime beers, but seriously, stay away from large groups and do our part. Okay, thanks, guys. The Canadian investor is not to be taken as investment advice. Braden or Simone may own securities mentioned on this podcast.

Always make sure to do your own research and due diligence before making investment decisions. Thanks for listening to this episode of The Canadian Investor. To get a list of the top Canadian dividend stocks right now and other valuable investing resources, go to GetStockMarket.com.