The Canadian Investor - Episode 27 - Takeaways from the 2020 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting

Episode Date: May 6, 2020

We start the episode by giving our thoughts on a listener's questions. During the rest of the episode we talk about what Warren Buffett had to say during the 2020 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting that was held on May 2nd, 2020.Tickers of stocks mentioned : PINS, AC.TO, DAL, AAL, LUV, BRK-A, BRK-B--- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/the-canadian-investor/messageSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Welcome back into the show. This is the Canadian Investor Podcast, made possible by our friends and show sponsor, EQ Bank, which helps Canadians make bank with high interest and no fees on everyday banking. We also love their savings and investment products like GICs, which offer some of the best rates on the market. I personally, and I know Simone as well, is using the GICs, which offer some of the best rates on the market. I personally, and I know Simone as well, is using the GICs on a regular basis to set money aside for personal income taxes in April of every year. Their GICs are perfect because the interest rate is guaranteed, and I know I won't be able to touch that money until I need it for tax time. Whether you're looking to set some money aside for a rainy day or a big purchase is

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I'm Brayden Dennis, joined by Simon Belanger out of Ottawa. I'm in Toronto recording this. And lots of things to talk about today. We're going to answer a listener question. We're going to talk about Warren's address to Bookshare Hathaway shareholders meeting that happened two days ago. It is always so fun to listen to the Oracle of Omaha do what he does. He's just like so cute. I want to give him a hug.

do what he does. He's just like so cute. I want to give him a hug. And it was too bad that Charlie Munger, his longtime business partner and co-chair of Berkshire Hathaway, wasn't able to make it there. But he assured us right at the beginning of the meeting that 96-year-old Charlie Munger is still good. It is not his health. It is more so that traveling to Omaha for the meeting didn't make a whole lot of sense. And that makes a lot of sense in itself. So we hope Munger can be there back next year. As Charlie said, at that point, he'd be 97 years old. The guy is just an incredible genius. and it's always really, really fun to hear them go back and forth. They're so witty. They're hilarious and just extremely smart. So it's always very fun. How are you doing, Simon?

Hey, I'm doing well. I just, I thought you forgot about me for a second right there. I was just going to do the whole podcast and then see if you had any hot takes at the end uh yeah no i'm doing well i had a look at uh the um uh yeah the shareholder meeting that was done on yahoo finance with warren buffett some really some good stuff there uh but before we get going on that we do have a listener question which i think think is really good. It's quite jam-packed, but it'll be fun to talk about and just put in the perspective of the current investing environment. So it'll be fun to discuss that. I can read it out.

So this is from Alex, and this is a big question, right? There's a lot of theorizing involved, simon will give his take and then and then i'll give mine as well so he says what do you think about a potential doom loop caused by baby boomers exiting the market with lonesome sums of cash for millennials entering with very little time to invest corporations not being able to buy back as much stock due to the current economic situation, ever-increasing debt to low interest rates, and our generation's need for instant gratification. I'd love to hear what you guys have to say on this topic.

So, before Simon goes, parts of this is very theoretical, and we've heard people talk about this phenomenon that could happen with older generations uh you know leaving large sums of cash out of the market and then you know creating this void with millennials not investing i think that is complete bs but before i tear it apart, Simon, what do you think about this? Yeah, I mean, there's, I think it's a good question, a fun discussion to have. There's definitely quite a few moving parts in that question. So I will try to break it down. So first of all, you talked about Alex mentioned baby boomers. So yes, it's true, you know,

population as a whole, it is getting older. It's fun to put in perspective, though, that baby boomers right now are entering their 70s for the most part. So those are people, baby boomers tend to be, I think, 10-15 years after the end of the Second World War. So babies that were born during that period. So my parents are part of that. They're born in 52. I find there is a bit of misconception in terms of thinking that people or baby boomers will withdraw all their money from equities. You have to keep in mind right now we're at extremely low interest rates. The life expectancy is also getting higher. So if people want to, like, you know, the theory would say, just, you know, liquidate all their equities and then just put it in fixed income, well, they will probably have a hard time just keeping up with inflation. I was looking a

bit before we started recording and the treasury bonds in Canada and the US so they're fairly similar in terms of what their interest rates is on them so the just to give you guys an idea so the 10-year treasury bond in Canada is yielding less than one percent and if we're looking at the 10-year in the states it's about the same so it's actually a bit lower so it's 0.64%. So if we're just going with the traditional inflation of about 2% or so, you're not keeping up with the cost of living if you're putting everything in very safe fixed income. So what are your options in terms of that, then it would be obviously equities. You can also invest in real estate, there's other things. But for the most part, I would think most people will keep their

money in equities for that reason. Maybe not everything. Obviously, they'll probably, like we've mentioned before, if they have five years worth of expenses, usually you want that in safer assets. But beyond that, if people are living until they're 85, 90, or like Charlie Munger, 96, or past that, they need money to fund that retirement and they won't get that in fixed income. So I think it's a bit misleading for that. There's also withdrawal schedules that are required. So most of that money is most likely

tied to registered accounts. So retirement registered accounts, whether it's RRSPs in Canada So retirement registered accounts, whether it's RRSPs in Canada or similar accounts in the U.S., 401ks, for example. So there's a bit of a penalty, too, for people to withdraw that money. There's not an actual penalty, but when you do withdraw that money, it's taxable income. So if someone were to sell all their assets or all their equities and then just withdraw that money they'll get taxed up to the wazoo of course like i said they could just sell their equities and put in fixed income but then you don't keep up with inflation so i think that's where there is a bit of an issue with that theory that the mass exodus from baby boomers will cause the market to go completely down it's true that younger people

will have less money to invest, but then again, baby boomers will probably have to keep a decent portion invested in equities. So that's the first part of that. The buying back stocks, I don't think that's a bad thing, to be honest, that businesses are buying back less stock than they used to during this 10-year bull run. What really, to me, the 10-year bull run showed is that companies are terrible at buying back stock. They've bought stock back at incredibly high prices. And if you look at different studies, that's what you'll find is that most companies that do buy back stock don't do a very good job of doing it. So I personally don't see much of an issue with that. If the company is not buying back stock, they can either pay dividends or keep the money to reinvest in the business and make

sure they keep surviving during these difficult times. So that's my take on that part. The low interest rates and instant gratification that you can see in the younger generation, that's the issue with low interest rates. So when you keep interest rates low, you're essentially incentivizing people to borrow and spend that money now because if they save that money, it won't really increase in value because the interest rates are so low. So you're really giving them an incentive. And I think that's where the biggest risk is probably located is these low interest rates and the incentive it gives people and businesses to keep borrowing money.

And the high level of debt is, I think, the biggest problem going forward. We're at historical levels, whether you're looking at corporate debt or individual debt. So from all of the things that Alex mentioned, I think the debt aspect is definitely the one that would be the more worrying in terms of my philosophy. I've said it before. I've said it before, there's a reason why you want to diversify, whether it's asset classes, whether you want to be fully invested in equities or have a bit of diversification, whether it's real estate, whether it's a small portion in cryptocurrency or Bitcoin, like I mentioned before. I know Braden doesn't have that and that's fine. We don't have to agree on everything. I know we agree on a lot of things, but there's different ways to look at it.

But yeah, that last part is the one that would be the greatest risk for me. It's a jam-packed question. There's no doubt about that. But let me just take a step back on the whole baby boomers, like this idea that they're all going to withdraw from equities on the same trading day and have some circuit breaker trigger is just bonkers to me because for some reason, I don't know why, for some reason, society thinks that the baby boomers have been on the verge of retirement for the last 15 years like they're just always 64 65

the that is the youngest year 64 65 of the baby boomers right now so most of them are in their 70s a lot of them are not working. A lot of them have already moved out of equities into bonds or continuing to hold equities because they want dividend income, whatever it may be. And I think that's a good idea for them. But that theory, and we've seen it been thrown around, I think is a load of crap. That's just what I think. Because long-term, there's been generation turnover after generation turnover. It's not like before this, when the baby boomers were passed on all the money, that there was some thing happened there because of an aging demographic.

I think that much other forces move markets more than that. So very interesting question. It's fun to theorize about this stuff. It's also fun to theorize about how different things impact the market. If everyone moves to this passive indexing style with ETFs, will there be some more massive panic sell-off? Or will the market never crash because everyone just buying and holding passive investments so it doesn't go down as fast? Well, you've already debunked that with the most extreme market volatility we've seen in 2020. extreme, the most extreme market volatility we've seen in 2020. So yeah, it is fun to theorize about the stuff. I agree with it, but a lot of it doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Just think about it logically. And thinking about it logically and taking a step back, listen to our man,

Warren Buffett. He basically went on for an hour before getting to the juicy stuff. But what people really want to know is why did you sell 100% stakes in all of the airlines and all the major US airlines? Buffett was a huge holder of airlines before this. holder of airlines before this. So yeah, he basically talked about for an hour before all that of why you don't bet against the stock market and why long-term investors will be rewarded and that drawing endless parallels between what's happening now and what was happening during his youth. You have to remember, this guy bought stocks at 11 years old. He has seen everything. And we're also dealing with a guy who's extremely intelligent, like Mensa off the charts IQ. He has seen it all. So when he goes up there and says how you should be reacting,

how you should be looking at the markets right now, just listen to the man. He knows what he's talking about. His wisdom is incredible. So if you haven't listened to that as well, maybe Simon, we can link that to the show notes. There's a YouTube video that Yahoo Finance uploaded that I'm looking at now here. So let's get to the juicy stuff here. Simon Buffett exiting all airline positions. What is your thoughts on this? I mean, he makes us look good. He does make us look good, man.

We look great. You've been listening to the Canadian Investor. You've already left airline stocks. good man we look great you've been listening to the canadian investor you've been uh you've been you've already left airline stocks yeah i mean i like i think we had talked about air canada already and how we were lukewarm of entering uh the travel and leisure industry and the airline industry for obvious reason because we didn't know what kind of like we knew it would get back they would get back in operating to a level that's more than 10 percent of what they had last year but at the same time we don't know exactly what level that's going to be is it going to be you know 40 50 percent is

going to be the new normal um that could very well be and no one really knows. One of the things that was announced by all the US airlines and I think Air Canada and WestJet too is that we will be required to wear masks when we travel. So that's one of the changes. I know some of the airlines have also mentioned that they would most likely restrict seating and potentially just having just half of the capacity of the airplane to be available for booking. That way they make sure that people are physically distancing as much as they can. But that really just says, you know, what Buffett is saying is they don't really know how to value these airlines companies going forward. There's two main themes that I got from

him. First of all, the debt level. So the fact that they're getting these huge bailouts from the US government, and of course, you can create some parallels with Air Canada and Canada, is that they're getting a lot of debt. And he was saying that, no, that's not something they're comfortable with. When they also invested in airline companies, they had a certain upside that they saw in airline companies. The problem with that is that upside was based on how they were operating at the time. No one could have foreseen the pandemic that he granted that the CEOs in general did a good job, but it's something that was out of their control but he did also say that

that completely changed their view on investing in the airline stocks and because they could no longer project future earnings they thought it was better or he thought it was better just simply selling their position i think it's the four major airlines in the states i think it was american delta southwest and i can't remember the last one but regardless it doesn't matter i thought it was really interesting for the last part of this is that it goes to show you that even warren buffett and he'll admit it he made a mistake investing in them well even warren buffett makes mistakes and he's seen as the greatest investor of all time i've made mistakes i'm sure Braden has made mistakes in the past. Whoever you're listening to us, I'm sure you've made mistakes. You'll make mistakes when you're investing in the future.

But what's really good is when you notice that you've made a mistake, if it no longer holds true what you were thinking about your investment, you know, sometimes it's just better off to cut your losses and not hang on to it because that capital that you're tying into that investment could, in your assessment, you could very well use it better somewhere else. So I think that's the main thing I took from the whole airline selling his old position in airline stocks.

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what I need done quickly. Switch for free today and keep more of your money. Visit questrade.com for details. That is questrade.com. Here on the show, we talk about companies with strong two-sided networks make for the best products. I'm going to spend this coming February and March in an Airbnb in South Florida for a combination of work and vacation and realized, hey, my place could be a great Airbnb while I'm away. Since it's just going to be sitting empty, it could make some extra income. But there are still so many people who don't even think about hosting on Airbnb or think it's a lot of work to get started. But now it is easier than ever with Airbnb's new co-host network.

You can hire a local quality co-host to take care of your home and guests. It's a win-win since you make some extra money hosting on Airbnb, but can still focus on enjoying your time away. Find a co-host at airbnb.ca forward slash host. That is airbnb.ca forward slash host. It was a bold move for him to go out there and do this, but it makes sense because Warren is the most honest guy when it comes to making mistakes or what he sees. And he just fails to see that he has any competitive advantage in terms of knowing and being able to value the business on a go-forward basis for these companies. Because it's so incredibly difficult. So he sees opportunity elsewhere. And Buffett will continue to be a net purchaser of businesses and stocks no matter what.

So that's really important to recognize that he is still so optimistic about the market. And yeah. And Simon, I don't make mistakes, buddy. Sorry. Uh, just kidding. So, and, uh, the other things he had to mention, you know, he, he talked about oil prices going negative. He talked about interest rates. He talked about all that stuff. than any other time he goes on CNBC and just says, hey, I'm not betting against the market. I never will. It's done so well.

It will continue to do well. So I see people short the S&P 500 during the pandemic. I've had a bunch of buddies tell me that they're doing that. And I just basically have no comment because from a 10-foot step back and look at what you're doing by shorting the S&P 500 inherently makes zero sense. Zero sense. So maybe if you want to do some cool trade

and make a bunch of money, sure, do whatever you want. But shorting the S&P 500 is just idiotic in a sense to be holding that for a long-term timeframe whatsoever because of what Warren has to say, don't bet against the stock market. That has punished investors or pessimists in this case. So I think beyond what we were going to say, just listen to what he has to say. It's five hours, but the good stuff he basically goes through in an hour and then talks about Berkshire and all the statements for another basically four hours. This guy is just trucking along. He's got his cans of Coke. Guy is a walking advertisement for his company.

Did you see his PowerPoints, his slides? His slides were so badass. Like nothing says I don't give a shit more than his slides. I love it. Apparently, he just learned to do it like recently he never used powerpoint before and uh he did it himself so i was like oh boy this uh this is rudimentary in terms of powerpoint his slides are amazing like they're so buffett it's perfect um and yeah he said it's a presentation about uh yeah i've never used these slides before and i don't really know what i'm doing

but uh here we go it's perfect yeah there's a there's a couple of other things that i wanted to point out some of the stuff he said and it's definitely really interesting if you have time to watch and like like braden said like the actual videos five hours there's a lot of blah blah blah from cnbc at the beginning beginning or the host that was doing it on you know finance so you can always just like skip to the moment where Buffett starts talking but one of the things is that he did not invest a lot of money during the downturn that kind of surprised me so that was one of the things that did surprise me in terms of that. I also mentioned that he still thought overall that equities were quite highly valued. I can't say I disagree with

that based on the new reality and the uncertainty going forward. And he had a lot of good parallels, like Braden said, in terms of how people were feeling in the 1930s, how people were feeling for all the different market correction or market crashes that happened afterwards. And there's really one constant is people didn't know what to expect. And the reality is, we don't know what to expect going forward with this pandemic. It's just it's brand new, we don't know exactly what, you know, reopening will mean. We don't know how quickly a vaccine will come. There's a lot of things we don't know. And I think that's why it's so difficult to value the market right now.

I personally think it's a bit overvalued, given that we're not that far from the recent highs of February. And a lot of companies will be suffering in the short term. But again, I don't know. Maybe the market will stay stable, kind of just go sideways. Maybe it'll go up. Maybe it'll go down. It's really hard to pinpoint where the market is going to go. So definitely, you know, I think this just reinforces,

if you don't want to pick stocks, pick an index fund like Buffett says, and do it on a regular basis. And then you'll avoid the whole headache of trying to, you know, dig in trying to time the market and all that stuff, because it's very hard to do. And especially when there's so much uncertainty. So it leads me to something I've been thinking about and I get questions about all the time from my stratosphere members as well as just people who reach out. And people want to know a lot about companies that are on the operating table, like the airlines we just talked about, or like a restaurant brands international, or like a hotels business, travel business, and versus a company that's alive and thriving even in an environment like this,

like Microsoft, for instance. The questions I'm getting a lot are those companies, like, you know, a lot of those big tech companies are up net in 2020. And I think they should be because they're gaining business from this as horrible as that sounds versus a company that's, you know, shut down on the operating table and looks incredibly cheap. And what I'm trying to get across is there are value traps out there. There are companies that look incredibly cheap on past trailing 12 months. And if they come back, and if they come back strong, then yeah, they look really,

really cheap right now. Mind you've probably gone on a bit of a roller coaster before that recovery happens, which I respect going through that. But if it's up to you, Simon, are you picking companies that, okay, yeah, they might still look expensive or haven't really gone down? As value investors, we want to be buying stocks that are down, but you don't want to be buying a value trap. So are you strictly, in terms of putting cash in right now, are you looking for companies that are going to come out of this strong and are currently thriving in this environment? Or are you trying to pick up businesses that are potentially value picks long term that are on the operating table right now, but have a lot of uncertainty? Yeah, I'm staying away from businesses that are on the operating table. I'm just not even really considering them. The way I see it is

you're taking a gamble on whether the business will survive or not. If it does survive, then yeah, you have a good chance for decent returns. But even then, it could survive and not thrive afterwards. So that's one of the issues I see right there. And picking those will tend to be, I see right there. And picking those will tend to be, there might be a lot of timing involved into that. There's also a lot of external forces that will impact your investment that are really out of your control. So my personal philosophy is I'd rather take businesses that are really thriving. You know, for the most part, they're businesses that pay a dividend, but I'm fine with investing in businesses that don't pay a dividend as long as it's a great business and their, you know, their prospects look very good going right now, but going forward as well. The one thing

where I'm willing to take bets a little bit in terms of maybe a little riskier stuff so I said it obviously there's cryptocurrency that's in my more fun money but there's also my kind of more growth stocks that are maybe not profitable right now but will really be thriving in this type of environment but I'll preface this those growth stock for me as long as they're not losing too much money, as long as it's a little bit, they're not burning too much cash and that they have a good cash balance cushion. So that's really important. So it's one thing if you're burning a little bit of cash, but you have like tons of runway because you, you know, you went IPO not too long ago, you just have a lot of cash and cash equivalents on the books and very little debt. So yeah, sure. Fine. You're losing a bit of money. That's not the end of the world.

So those are the kind of companies that I will consider a lot. I will consider them way before I consider companies that are like on the verge of either going bankrupt or are waiting a bailout. Yeah, I totally agree with you. And yeah, people listening, take note of what Simon just said. Like, seriously, there's so many opportunities out there with companies that are minimally affected and trading at a little discount or thriving in this environment and going to come out of this really, really strong out there that, you know, you don't have to, whatever, checking off a, you know, a check mark on your investing strategy that you're buying a company that's down. You don't have to do that. Like you can, you don't, you don't have

to look back at a stock. It should never be a reason to invest in a company by starting to look at their stock chart, by the way. But if you do and you go, oh, all it's done is go straight up and it's up in 2020. I can't do that. I'm a value investor. Put that ego crap aside. These are very good businesses that are going to come out of this stronger. They're going to come out of this better. And they're available. You don't have to buy something that's, their balance sheet is deteriorating at the seams right now. So it's very good points you just made, Simon, and I fully,

fully agree with you. As do-it-yourself investors, we want to keep our fees low. That's why Simone and I have been using Questrade as our online broker for so many years now. Questrade is Canada's number one rated online broker by MoneySense. And with them, you can buy all North American ETFs, not just a few select ones, all commission free so that you can choose the ETFs that you want and they charge no annual RRSP or TFSA account fees. They have an award-winning customer service team with real people that are ready to help if you have questions along the way. As a customer myself, I've been impressed with Questrade's customer service. Whenever I call or email, every support rep is very knowledgeable and they get exactly

what I need done quickly. Switch for free today and keep more of your money. Visit questrade.com for details. That is questrade.com. Here on the show, we talk about companies with strong two-sided networks make for the best products. I'm going to spend this coming February and March in an Airbnb in South Florida for a combination of work and vacation and realized, hey, my place could be a great Airbnb while I'm away. Since it's just going to be sitting empty, it could make some extra income. But there are still so many people who don't even think about hosting on Airbnb or think it's a lot of work to get started. But now it is easier than ever with Airbnb's new co-host network.

You can hire a local quality co-host to take care of your home and guests. It's a win-win Yeah, I mean, it's just about, like, to me, it's just about investing in good businesses. And, you know, it's fine. We've talked about it again. If you want to take small bets here and there on, like, riskier stuff, that's fine. Just make it a small part of your portfolio. If you want to invest in companies that are on the operating table, you know, I wouldn't personally, but that's really up to you. Just make it a small portion of your investments. That would be my best tip I wouldn't have for you. And if you guys are looking for just a random idea of like one of the companies I'm looking at right now, that kind of goes with what I was saying. So I do like one of the companies i'm looking at very closely is pinterest so

pinterest is still losing money but one of the reasons i like pinterest is um i mean i use it i've used it a lot more since the pandemic started for projects for even uh just uh also making recipes like i think i use it like i must use it like six, seven times a week. All the women in my life that I know use Pinterest. They've been doing pretty well overall. They have a good cash balance, very little debt. So that's the type of company that I look at. They're still losing money. But to me, it's a company that has a lot more potential in the next two, three, 5, 10, 15, 20 years.

So that's just an example. I'm not saying invest or not in it, but it is the type of company I have on my radar. Simon, I just learned you use Pinterest. It's very, very interesting to me. We just lost about 57 subscribers to the Canadian Investor Podcast, but that's okay. That's okay.

I like the honesty. No, it But that's okay. That's okay. I like the honesty. No, it's a good point. These are companies. Hey, what's wrong with Pinterest? Nothing's wrong with Pinterest. I'm not going to go there. I'm not going to go there, man. Nothing's wrong with Pinterest.

You're saying mostly women use Pinterest? I'm not saying that, Simon. You're saying that. You're saying that. Okay. Yeah, no, there's lots of companies out there that you know it's really hard when i'm saying this to just not be thinking about tech tech tech all the time uh the pick for my stratosphere members that released today tuesday april 5th or tuesday may 5th sorry um is a technology company, wonderful company here in Canada.

And yeah, they're getting business from this. It's not, you know, they're not going to go out and say, hey, by the way, coronavirus, awesome for business. You know, they're not saying that. And they shouldn't say that. It's horrible. It's gross. But there are – this is a roundabout way of going.

There are companies that are alive, thriving, and you don't have to buy a company that is unforeseeably opening. And I think that they will will all these ones will be opening their doors and in 2020 it's just at what capacity right we have to phase this in correctly and um i'm not going to talk about that anymore because i'm tired of people pretending that they're epidemiologists so um is there anything else you'd like to talk about with Buffett's chat or his five-hour chat or investing in companies at all right now? No, no. I think we went long enough about those things. It was a good question too from Alex.

Thank you for that. If you guys have more questions for us, I think I mentioned it on the last podcast, but we do have a Twitter account now. So it's at CDN underscore investing, all lowercase. So make sure you guys follow us. We'll be Braden and I'll post on a regular basis and we'll make sure that all the episodes are there. When we do post it, we'll post it on Twitter too. And we'll put it in the episode description. We'll keep it there just to make on twitter too and we'll put it in the episode description we'll keep it there just to make sure you guys don't forget about it oh yeah we have a twitter now follow our twitter i've never tweeted before after this episode i'm gonna tweet on our account so

what is it again cdn underscore investing or investor investing so at cdn underscore investing all beautiful so go uh is it follow like i am such a twitter rookie i've never used it it's a fault yeah go follow us and also go follow my instagram at stratosphere investing we're gonna hit 700 followers i'm like mediocrely famous now. Not a big deal guys. We will see you next week. Go to getstockmarket.com Constantly updating it after this call. Lots of North American

growth, dividend growth stocks. Get you all the metrics you want in one place. And we will see you next week, guys. Thanks for listening. Go give us five stars wherever you're listening to us right now. We appreciate it a lot. The Canadian investor is not to be taken as investment advice.

Braden or Simone may own securities mentioned on this podcast. Always make sure to do your own research and due diligence before making investment decisions. Always make sure to do your own research and due diligence before making investment decisions.