The Canadian Investor - H&R Reit and investing in oil and gas companies

Episode Date: July 5, 2020

In this episode we answer two more listener questions. We start the episode by discussing H&R Reit and if we think it is a good value play. We then talk about investing in the oil and gas market from a Canadian and Global perspective. We finish the episode by talking about the current state of the markets and highly speculative stocks.Enjoy the episode!Tickers of stocks discussed : HR-UN.TO, SU.TO, TRP.TO, RDS-B, TSLA, CHK, HSE.TO, ENB.TO, KMI--- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/the-canadian-investor/messageSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Welcome back into the show. This is the Canadian Investor Podcast, made possible by our friends and show sponsor, EQ Bank, which helps Canadians make bank with high interest and no fees on everyday banking. We also love their savings and investment products like GICs, which offer some of the best rates on the market. I personally, and I know Simone as well, is using the GICs, which offer some of the best rates on the market. I personally, and I know Simone as well, is using the GICs on a regular basis to set money aside for personal income taxes in April of every year. Their GICs are perfect because the interest rate is guaranteed, and I know I won't be able to touch that money until I need it for tax time. Whether you're looking to set some money aside for a rainy day or a big purchase is

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Happy Canada Day. Yesterday was Canada Day, 153rd. And happy birthday to this awesome country. and happy birthday to this awesome country. I am definitely feeling it today with a couple of beverages yesterday. How are you feeling today, Simon? I know I am in rough shape. I'm feeling okay. I guess I did have a few drinks, but I stayed well hydrated because I'm a little older and you have to make sure your intake of water actually is similar to that of booze if you want to be able to survive the next day.

I did not keep a good healthy ratio, but that's okay. Here we are. Speaking of ratios,la is now 28 more valuable than the second largest auto manufacturer toyota in the world now worth more than honda bmw gm ford fiat chrysler hyundai Suzuki and Subaru combined. We talked about this, this stock at being so expensive at 800 US and it's well, well north of 1000. Then 1200 to share today. Absolutely nuts. It's really hard to understand why this stock is more than Toyota, who makes 25 times more cars than them. I get it. They have an amazing market share of electric vehicles. I get it. The cars are sweet. I love driving them.

This is hard to wrap my head around this kind of valuation. And any value investor is just going, what is going on? Elon Musk tweeting that the stock is overvalued. It's still not enough to send it down. Hilarious stuff. What do you think when you see a company like this? And they're continuing to execute well and we keep looking stupid it's like shopify it keeps going up does the tide ever come in on this thing what's happening

um i mean we'll see what happened with tesla i mean at least shopify has some solid earnings growth and they're really dominant in in what they do in terms of tesla i mean yeah they're the leaders in electric vehicles but a lot of it is you know elon musk's and if you look at the some of the things that happen like one of the big reasons it's uh up today is because they surpass estimates with deliveries in the second quarter. Instead of being, I think, the prediction was like 70-something thousand, they pumped out 90,000 deliveries. But who the hell knows what a delivery means? It doesn't equal necessarily revenue. Their metrics sometimes are a bit wonky.

And Elon has a tendency to push its workers to do basically 24 hour shifts when they're getting close to the end of a quarter. So it's I mean, I don't know. We could be talking about this six months from now. It'll be two grand a share. But at the same time, it's I don't know if it's driven by institutional investors or retail investor. I know a lot of people in Robin Hood.

I think this is one of their favorite stocks because they are allowed to purchase fractional shares on there. I really don't know what's driving this or it's just pump and dump for a lot of powerful investors. I don't know. Your guess is probably as good as mine. For sure. It is definitely interesting to try to understand how this thing is just going to the moon. And I don't really want to compare it to Shopify because those are very, very different stories. Very expensive, but very different stories. So, Simon, today we're going to talk about a real estate investment trust as requested by a listener. H&R ReIT. Tell me about rent collections over the last couple months. Yeah, so it was requested by Shannon. I'm not

going to try to say your name, Shannon, because your last name, because I feel I'll totally butcher it. But thank you, Shannon, for bringing this up and your questions. So H&R REITs. So in terms of H&R REITs, it's a diversified REIT. So they do own residential, industrial and office and retail. And Brayden will break it down for us a bit later on. Collection of rent as of June 16, 2020 was going pretty well according to management. So I listened to their update that they sent out a couple of weeks ago. Ninety five percent, ninety nine percent of office rents were collected. Ninety two percent of residential, fifty four percent of retail and ninety seven percent of industrial rent. So those are all a pretty good number. They said they're consistent with previous months. So that's very

good on their end. The one thing that i find a big red flag and management spun in it in a way that was a good thing i'm not sure i agree with that but they said they are working with their various renters whether it's businesses or individuals to ensure that they can get access to government subsidies so whether individuals of laws or jobs or businesses are eligible for different government loans or subsidies. So they're working with them to help them tap into those subsidies, which makes me think that there could be a good percentage of the renters that could be in distress once those subsidies stop being issued by the federal government. So that is something I would keep an eye on for them. Yeah, very good point to be monitoring that.

The stock is down 51% since the pandemic started. And wow, it seems really, really cheap here. But again, it's in one of those sectors right now that just no one wants to touch. The ones that just, the recovery just doesn't look obvious. It's not painted out clearly, especially with south of the border. Cases are running rampant right now. It's the highest daily case count than ever. And here we are in July.

So yeah, it's really, really hard to understand what this recovery looks like. And a lot of these companies that are down in such a big way, they get bucketed into this and no one will touch. bucketed into this and no one will touch everyone's moving capital to recurring revenue software and it looks really really cheap here and the stock is yielding six and a half percent after the dividend cut so there was a dividend cut uh it was yielding north at 10%, if I recall correctly there, Simon. Oh, yeah. Yeah, probably like 12%. And yeah, so even with this cut, it's 6.5%. The dividend cut, it seems like an aggressive cut because the dividend is very well covered by funds from operation, which is a cash flow metric that real estate investment

trusts use. That's basically what people look at in terms of earnings is FFO and adjusted FFO. So that FFO being funds from operations. So that's the main metric that people use for real estate investment trusts. And it's really, really well covered. They probably didn't need to cut it in half. But again, they're being very, very conservative. And investors are still getting a juicy almost close to 7% yield. So I backed the decision. I mean, not every dividend cut is bad news. back the decision i mean not every dividend cut is bad news i mean it's not particularly ever great news by any stretch uh so they do most of their business in canada but it's pretty close uh 55 in canada and 45 in the u.s 29 in ontario 17 in al Alberta, that being the two big jurisdictions. And then other Canadian provinces as well.

They have some big office towers in New York, Texas, Toronto. And Simon, tell us a little bit about the portfolio by segment. Yeah, so they kind of break it down in two ways. They either give the fair value or the share of rent. Fair value, I feel like it's an interesting one, but at the same time, the value, as they said in their call, they actually had to lower the value of certain of their assets because they're very difficult to value right now with the uncertainty in the market. So I think share of rent is probably a better way to look at it. So residential is 17%. From what I could see on their map, it's all US based. Industrial 6% share of rent. It's a mix between US and Western

Canada. Office is 44% of rent mix between US and Canada. And I think it's a lot of it is located in Ontario. And retail 33% share of rents. And again, it's a mix between US and Canada, but definitely more concentrated in Canada. So even though we said earlier, it is a diversified REIT, you can just, by the numbers I gave you, it's highly concentrated in office and retail. And given the uncertainty with the pandemic, those are probably the two sectors of REITs that I'd be the most careful with, just because obviously retail and office, like your guess is as good as mine to where that's going to end up in, you know, two, three,

four or five years from now. Yeah, it's a good question. And like I said, the path, the recovery just doesn't industrial, adding up to 30% total, looks really, really undervalued from my perspective. So I'm seeing tons of really prominent value investors who basically never buys real estate investment trusts as a rule, never buys real estate investment trusts as a rule, are dumping tons of capital into real estate and preaching that it's probably one of the most undervalued sectors right now on the stock market and real estate investment trusts. I tend to agree with them, yet it doesn't excite me that much based on those things we just talked about. And office and retail, those are just in two. Those two things are both on the wrong side of trends right now. Retail, brick and mortar space has been on a decline for a decade now as e-commerce really, really gains more and more traction.

And all this pandemic is doing is increasing the speed at which people adopt e-commerce. So that's the retail segment. And then the office segment, which I don't dislike much. I think people will be going back to the office. I think people miss the office. But you are seeing a big shift where a lot of companies will just say, okay, we're not going back to the office, or we're going to cut our office space in half

and have half the office in and do that as a long-term play because they've realized that they don't need to always be in the office, but they appreciate the ability to also have that face-to-face. So that makes a lot of sense to me. That being said, those are two bad things for real estate investment trusts that are concentrated in retail and office. So something to consider. I think that there's some really great real estate investment trusts that we've talked about on this podcast, like Allied and CapReit, like Canadian Apartment Reit, Interrent, those being in the office and residential spaces, those ones mentioned. I think that there's better names out there from me scanning H&R. I've never

owned a position, but I do think it's a pretty well-run company. It's been around for a while. So I think value investors are very into opening a position here and I would back it to be honest. As do-it-yourself investors, we want to keep our fees low. That's why Simone and I have been using Questrade as our online broker for so many years now. Questrade is Canada's number one rated online broker by MoneySense. And with them, you can buy all North American ETFs, not just a few select ones, all commission-free so that you can choose the ETFs that you want. And they charge no annual RRSP or TFSA account fees. They have an award-winning customer service team with real people that are ready to help if you have questions along the way.

As a customer myself, I've been impressed with Questrade's customer service. Whenever I call or email, every support rep is very knowledgeable and they get exactly what I need done quickly. Switch for free today and keep more of your money. Visit questrade.com for details. That is questrade.com. Calling all DIY do-it-yourself investors, Blossom is an essential app for you. It has been blowing up with now more than 50,000 Canadians plus and growing who are using the app. Every time I go on there, I am shocked. The engagement is amazing. This is a really vibrant community that they're building. And people share their portfolios, their trades, their investment ideas in real time. And it's all built on the concept of transparency because brokerage accounts are linked. And then

once you link your brokerage account, you can get in-depth portfolio insights, track your dividends, and there's other stuff like learning Duolingo style education lessons that are completely free. You can search up Blossom Social in the app store and join the community today. I'm on there. I encourage you, go on there and follow me. Search me up. Some of the YouTubers and influencers and podcasters that you might know, I bet you they're already on there. People are just on there talking, sharing their investment ideas and using the analytics tools. So go ahead, Blossom Social in the App Store and I'll see you there. Go ahead, blossom social in the app store, and I'll see you there. Yeah, I don't think it's a bad idea per se.

It's definitely a value play. The one thing I would recommend to people looking to start a position in them is stay on top of it. So definitely listen to every single quarterly update because, to me, the biggest thing I'll be looking at is when we the rent collection so if you start seeing some red flags about the rent collection that's probably where I'd really you know you could keep it another quarter but if you start seeing the trend that they're struggling getting rents especially in the retail and business or office space portion of their portfolio, which are the two biggest, you might want to look into selling. So as a closing note on them, they do have a decent amount of liquidity. So management did want to highlight that during that update in June. So they have about $1 billion in liquidity and cash and cash equivalents. So they had recently got a $500 million unsecured line of credit, $100 million from a 10-year mortgage, and $400 million from unsecured ventures, which is debt unsecured, so not backed by assets.

So yeah, that's about my two cents on H&R REIT. That is a lot of liquidity. Thanks for pointing that out. Yeah, so they're able to secure tons of cash. So yeah, all of these things you're seeing, the management is very conservative, slashing the dividend in half, grabbing a billion in liquidity.

They're being really, really conservative here. And when we say liquidity we just mean cash um that's that's it moving on simon we've had another question about oil do you want to take this one yeah yeah definitely so um we've had quite a few questions about oil stocks. So this one we got from Syed Haider. And I apologize if I'm butchering your name once again. You can butcher mine like Brayden does from time to time. Every episode I butcher your name. Yeah, exactly.

So at AWAIS035. So he asks us, can you discuss some of the oil stocks in Canada? So I'm not going to, I'll mention some Canadian names in here, but I want to give you a bit more of a breakdown how the oil industry works and some of the type of companies that I would definitely avoid if I wanted to invest in oil stocks. So generally, you'll have three types of business for oil and gas stocks. So you'll have upstream, midstream and downstream. So upstream, let's start from there. So that's exploration and production, E&P. So those are companies that produce, you know, get it out of the ground, whether it's the tar sands, whether it's traditional

oil field, whether it's fracking, doesn't matter. That's usually businesses that have, that will do upstream. There are businesses that will do upstream, midstream and downstream. So those are called integrated companies, but I will come to those a bit more at the end. So an example of an upstream company, I tried to find some in Canada and I couldn't find a lot that were specifically just pure play upstream. But a good example is Chesapeake in the US and they actually just filed for bankruptcy. So one of the issues with upstream companies is it's very capital intensive. So it costs a lot to start producing and they are often very very dependent on the price of oil the second type is midstream so usually midstream it's transportation so you

have pipelines in there you can have railways that would be considered like have a part midstream if they're carrying by train oil for example so some example of companies in there so you can have either companies that focus on oil in terms of transportation or natural gas natural gas gets a little trickier because it's liquid natural gas so it is called natural gas for a reason so has to be put at extremely cold temperature minus 162 Celsius in order to get it in liquid form. And in terms of that, so example of that, you'd have Enbridge, Kinder Morgan, TransCanada Corporation. So those, I mean, in terms of my personal preference for oil stocks,

I don't mind these companies at all, just because they will tend to have long term contracts with producers to transport the oil or the natural gas. So usually, they won't be as tied to the price of oil as the upstream companies. However, if you get a big price shock to the price of oil or natural gas, they can still be impacted if some of their contracts are held by companies that go bankrupt. So there is some risk there as well. They tend to be highly leveraged, but because they have those guaranteed contracts, usually they'll have more stable cash flows. And they'll pay some really good dividends. So you can just check Enbridge or Kingdom Morgan.

They pay quite high dividend. I think those two, they're in the 6, 7, 8% range right now. And the last one, so downstream. So downstream, typically it'll be more the refiners. So they tend to actually do fairly well when the prices go lower because they can purchase oil at a lower price and then get a bigger margin on it. However, again, if we get into a situation like happened in March and April of this year, where the demand completely stops and then the production completely overflows and the storage is completely full, then refiners also get impacted. then refiners also get impacted so my personal preference if I would invest in oil and the only one that the only investment pure play right now that I have in oil and I had some more before

is Kinder Morgan and that one I'm thinking of selling just because I can I think I can invest that money better elsewhere but aside from, I looked at integrated companies. So integrated company, it says in the word, for the most part, they'll have upstream, midstream, and downstream operations. And some of them will also have retail. So an example of retail operation would be Suncor in Canada. So they have upstream, so they have tar sand exploration and production over there. They do have some transportation, I believe they have upstream, so they have tar sand exploration and production over there. They do have some transportation. I believe they have pipelines. They own some refineries as well, and they have the retail portion.

So it really allows them to better absorb the price of oil, so the fluctuations. Some other examples, Imperial Oil, Usky, a Canadian company, ASCI Energy, Shell, ExxonMobil. So the integrated companies usually will be more solid financially but again even with the recent price drop in oil prices Suncor actually had to cut their dividend. It was widely considered as one of the top Canadian oil companies. Last thing I would say in terms of what to look for if you're looking to invest in oil, just keep a close eye on the debt of those companies and the interest payments. Avoid companies that have super high leverage.

I would stick personally with either pipelines or integrated companies. But again, pipelines, one of the risks that I did not mention is that you have regulatory risks. So just take the example of the Trans Mountain or the Keystone XL pipeline. So there have been hurdles one after the other. So that's definitely a risk for those. For integrated company, I would look at what their break-even price is so most company they should tell you basically as long as the price per barrel is say like 25 will break even and we won't lose any money so the lower the break-even price is the better it is for certain companies so right now the

bankruptcies that we're seeing the oldest sectors are usually for companies that their breakeven price was $40, $50, $60 a barrel. So obviously, as low as it is right now, they're losing money, they're emerging cash left and right center. So that's something I would look at and make sure that their dividend is well covered. But again, even if it's well covered, like Suncor, they still ended up cutting it recently. So it's really difficult to project these type of companies. And you never really know what's going to happen going forward. Really, the long term trend in terms of oil, the consensus is that we're going to be in peak oil sometime between 2020 and 2040. And after that, the overall global demand will go down. So yeah, that's about my breakdown on oil and gas,

Brita. Simon, I didn't know you were so well versed in the industry. All the Albertan listeners are very proud of you right now. For me, I have a checklist of investing in companies when I open a position. And that checklist involves pricing power. Pricing power. And this topic I will continue to repeat on every podcast episode is high quality companies are able to set their own prices. And oil companies do not meet that check. They are subject in every way of their business to the price of a commodity. So I do not purchase commoditized businesses for that exact reason. I do think you can buy some of this stuff on your book.

Really, really nice yields on some of them, and some of them are very quite safe yields, like you just mentioned Suncor, even before the cut, and they cut it more. There's always been a place for it in a retirement portfolio where people basically just own the banks and energy stocks and get really high dividend yields. It's just not the best place for capital, in my opinion. And maybe there will be some big recovery in oil, but it's been a underperformer for so long now. And it's also, again, one of my avoid rules is being on the wrong side of a trend. I don't want to get too philosophical about this,

but we need to, as humans, get off of our extreme extreme alliance on oil and gas. Is it going to happen tomorrow? No. Does it need to happen very soon? Yes. Will we accomplish that? I don't know. But it is on the wrong side of a trend to renewables, electric vehicles, more efficient electric heating. It's all going to change the long-term demand for oil. And that's a good thing. I know, again, Albertans are like, no, horrible. It is a good thing.

I can guarantee you that. Yeah, and I mean, just to add to what you just said, you have to be careful with the metrics that you look at for these oil companies too. And one of the issues I have with oil companies is they're very difficult to value and very unpredictable. So like Braden said, renewable companies, renewable energy producers, for example, their input costs will tend to be fairly stable, especially if you're looking at wind or solar. So they have fairly,

you know, fairly constant costs, whereas you look at oil companies companies and it can really fluctuate up and down and it's really hard to predict in terms of their input cost but also in terms of their total revenue and you have to be careful when you look at them from a price to book basis because if you guys look that up two days ago Shell actually announced that it was writing off $22 billion in terms of assets. And Shell has actually been one of the companies that's been one of the oil majors, integrated companies that's been investing in renewable energy the most. I think they've been investing $2 to $3 billion every year in renewable energy. And they've said it like you just said,

Braden, that they're trying to focus more and more on that. But it just goes to show that even if you're looking at the assets, OK, it might look like a good value. But if the company is writing off $22 billion in assets because they're just saying, yeah, it's not worth as much as we thought now. Yeah, I mean, it's definitely not a good thing. But a long-term trend is definitely not looking great for the oil and gas industry. And like you, I really think that's a good thing. But yeah, long-term trend is definitely not looking great for the oil and gas industry. And like you, I really think that's a good thing. As do-it-yourself investors, we want to keep our fees low. That's why Simone and I have been using Questrade as our online broker for so many years now. Questrade is Canada's number one rated online broker by MoneySense. And with them, you can buy all North American ETFs,

not just a few select ones, all commission free so that you can choose the ETFs that you want. And they charge no annual RRSP or TFSA account fees. They have an award-winning customer service team with real people that are ready to help if you have questions along the way. As a customer myself, I've been impressed with Questrade's customer service. Whenever I call or email, every support rep is very knowledgeable and they get exactly what I need done quickly. Switch for free today and keep more of your money. Visit questrade.com for details. That is questrade.com. is questtrade.com. Calling all DIY do-it-yourself investors, Blossom is an essential app for you. It has been blowing up with now more than 50,000 Canadians plus and growing who are using the app. Every time I go on there, I am shocked. The engagement is amazing. This is a really vibrant

community that they're building. And people share their portfolios, their trades, their investment ideas in real time. And it's all built on the concept of transparency because brokerage accounts are linked. And then once you link your brokerage account, you can get in-depth portfolio insights, track your dividends,

and there's other stuff like learning Duolingo- style education lessons that are completely free. You can search up Blossom Social in the app store and join the community today. I'm on there. I encourage you go on there and follow me, search me up. Some of the YouTubers and influencers and podcasters that you might know, I bet you they're already on there. People are just on there talking, sharing their investment ideas and using the analytics tools. So go ahead, Blossom Social in the app store, and I'll see you there. People are just on there talking, sharing their investment ideas and using the analytics tools. So go ahead, blossom social in the app store and I'll see you there. Yeah, no, it is a good thing. I'm an environmental engineer myself, working renewable energy. This is a long-term trend that is not going anywhere because it has to change. Anywho, I have an announcement. Stratosphere 2.0 is launching

and I need testers and beta users. If you are interested in using a new service to manage all of your investment research in one place, send me an email email brayden at stratosphereinvesting.com timeline we're looking at september october this will give you a dashboard financial tenure statements stock screener model portfolios uh tons of features, earnings calendars, analyst reports, everything all in one place to manage your DIY investment portfolio on Stratosphere 2.0. It's going to be huge. Brayden at stratosphereinvesting.com and we can chat. Simon, anything else you'd like to discuss? Happy Canada Day, everyone. What are your thoughts right now?

What are you looking at in the market? What are you noticing? What kind of trends are you seeing? I am seeing that the amount of capital going into software as a service companies, trading at like 20 times sales is just unbelievable. I don't think it's.com 2.0. I don't. I think the profitability of these companies is much better.

But still, it seems a bit nuts. Yeah, I'm sorry not to agree with that. I can see why people love those companies. But again, you have to, I mean, we talked about Shopify. I mean, the multiple is just insanely high. I mean, I still think they're going to be here for the super long term, but at the price they're trading at, I'm not sure how long it's going to take you to actually make some decent returns on that investment. Yeah, it seems like people are looking for places to put their money in and they're looking at software as a service as a good place to start putting their

money. If you look at the indexes, they're definitely skewed towards big tech in general. So I would say people looking at the market and thinking that they're completely overvalued. I think some sectors might be more overvalued than others, but because those indexes for the S&P 500, it's market cap weighted, a big price jump in Amazon, Microsoft, or any of those big tech companies affects the index quite a bit.

So I think it's unevenly spread out right now. I think there's still some really good companies, not necessarily in software as a service, but other industries that still require a decent look at. For sure. And you bring up a good point. The indexes are so heavily weighted on big technology. And this is why if you buy a S&P 500 index fund, yeah, you're getting 500 companies. 500 companies. But since it's market cap weighted, you are getting such, such large exposure to the top 10 holdings, top five holdings. The FANG stocks are just going to be such a large portion of your S&P 500 fund. And that's been good for performance over the last 10 years. It's been really good.

It's been unbelievable how much these companies are carrying the entire index to all-time highs in a pandemic. And people are going, oh, well, how is this happening? It's so divorced from reality. I agree. It's completely divorced from reality. But the companies that are putting the entire index on their back and pushing it to all-time highs are companies that should be at all-time highs. Those companies should be at all-time highs.

Microsoft should be at all-time highs. Microsoft should be at all-time highs. They saw 80% increase in Microsoft Teams usage when everyone got sent home from the office. 80% increase in their platform that they're really trying to push that is their big competitor to Slack and was widely instantly accepted. So they did an extremely good job of doing that. And, you know, these kinds of companies should be at all time highs. Some, some, some shouldn't in a pandemic,

but some definitely should. And that's why you're seeing the market explode and hit all time highs in a pandemic. It's, it pandemic. It's really quite simple. It's just a handful of companies really, really performing well while others struggle or recover a little bit as we move out of a lockdown. So that's what I'm seeing right now. And that's just how the math works out. Simon, you want to send us off here?

Yeah, yeah, no, I totally agree with that. And the last thing I would probably just mention is for those bargain basement companies, whether we've talked about the mayoral lines, tourism industry, and things like that, there's been some of those that got like a 2, 3x within like a few weeks or a month in terms of increase. When it looks too good to be true, it probably is. So I would probably be careful with those type of companies. But the

solid ones that Brayden just mentioned, yeah, I mean, there might be a pullback eventually, but those are companies that will be here in 10, 15, 20 years. So I think those are solid picks. You know, if you want a dollar cost average, you can't really go wrong with that. But yeah, so I guess we'll call it an episode. Thank you for listening to the Canadian Investor. We love talking about these things with you guys. Keep giving us some great feedbacks. If you have questions, tweet at us at CDN underscore investing.

And we'll talk to you guys next week. The Canadian Investor is not to be taken as investment advice braden or simone may own securities mentioned on this podcast always make sure to do your own research and due diligence before making investment decisions thanks for listening to this episode of the canadian investor to get a list of the top canadian dividend stocks right now and other valuable investing resources, go to GetStockMarket.com.