The Canadian Investor - Is Disney the New King of Streaming? - Earnings Roundup
Episode Date: August 18, 2022Has Disney become the king of the streaming wars? Yes and no. There is more to the story and we discuss why. In addition, we break down the latest down news and various earnings reports. Tickers o...f stocks discussed: BAM-A.TO, DIS, NVEI.TO, EQB.TO, HUT.TO, CGX.TO, TTD In today’s release, we cover the following news and earnings: Elon Musk sells more Tesla Shares US July Inflation numbers Disney earnings Nuvei earnings EQ Bank earnings Hut 8 earnings The Trade Desk Earnings Cineplex earnings Check out our portfolio by going to Jointci.com Our Website Canadian Investor Podcast Twitter: @cdn_investing Simon’s twitter: @Fiat_Iceberg Braden’s twitter: @BradoCapital Want to learn more about Real Estate Investing? Check out the Canadian Real Estate Investor Podcast! Apple Podcast - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Spotify - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Sign up to Stratosphere for free 🚀 our platform for self-directed stock investing research. Register for EQ Bank, the seamless digital banking experience with better rates and no nonsense.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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The Canadian Investor Podcast. Today is August 15th, 2022. My name is Brayden Dennis.
As always, joined by the legendary Simon Bélanger. Simon, at any moment,
you may have to sprint off this call yeah yeah and and you know that full
well I know that yeah it's definitely a risk so we're uh recording this one a bit earlier than we
usually do just uh have some extra episodes ready to go but this one will be up to date
it'll be current stuff so you guys will you know we're not talking about things that happened four
weeks ago no it is all current stuff.
But at any moment, Simone's getting the call off to the hospital with his wife.
Today, we are talking about the US CPI number.
Also, I don't know if you saw this, the Bank of Canada did a long Twitter thread today.
Oh, I didn't see that.
About explaining inflation.
Oh, shoot.
I should have sent it to you. I can send you the link here when you're talking, but it't see that. About explaining inflation. Oh, shoot. I should have said that to you.
I can send you the link here when you're talking, but it was quite funny.
I, of course, trolled them and wrote, which in turn wrote this.
But yeah, then we're going to talk about Brookfield, Disney, Canadian earnings.
You got Cineplex on the end here too?
Yeah, I thought it'd be a good one.
I don't think we've talked about Cineplex in a while. Yeah, I thought it'd be a good one we've talked about cineplex in a
while i thought it'd be a good one to look at especially it's one of the names that was the
most affected by lockdowns so just see how they're doing yeah spoiler alert they're doing better than
last year but you'll have to wait and listen to the end to see how they're doing compared to 2019
oh goodness me okay all right kick it off here with CPI for us.
Yeah. So the US released its CPI figures for July last week. So it was 8.5% year over year. And of
course, if there's some new listeners, CPI is just an official government metric called the Consumer
Price Index that measures inflation. Now, if you think that's still high that's because it is the market though loved
it and it's been mostly up i think pretty much every single day since then since they released
it the market was really expecting higher cpi than the one that was released well first of course it
was lower than the 9.1 experience in j. So there are some good news in this number.
It was flat on the sequential basis.
So meaning month over month compared to the previous increase in June.
That's compared to a 1.3% increase from May to June.
So it's kind of nice to see it flat on a month to month basis.
nice to see it flat on a month-to-month basis and although gas was up 44% year-over-year it was actually down 7.7% on a sequential basis so we're really seeing some good news when especially it
comes on the sequential basis here and the market is seeing this as a potential sign that inflation
may have peaked in the U.S. Now there's a lot of other things the price of
some commodities are also going down aside from oil here I think personally it's a little bit
too early to celebrate let's see you know let's give it probably till the end of the year to
celebrate whether we've reached peaked inflation or not because there's a couple of components definitely some red flags still on the release food was up
10.9 percent and 1.1 percent on a sequential basis so still very high and again this is a necessity
so it does affect everyone the second one here shelter which was up 5.7 percent it might sound
reasonable but cpi captures what households are paying right now
for shelter. So because of the tight housing and rental markets, there is a strong case to be made
here that this metric will increase in the upcoming months, especially when you have renters,
rents are coming due, landlords are taking advantage of that to increase the rent. And in the U.S., depending on the state, there's not the same type of high limitations that we have in most provinces in Canada.
So like I said, I think there's definitely some good, but I think it's also very early to celebrate that inflation is coming down.
We just need to see what happens in the next few
months. But of course, I think it's just a reinforcement that markets will be affected
a lot in the short term by this kind of macro stuff. But long term, it shouldn't matter too
much. So I think it's really important to remember that and not get to one way or another positive or pessimistic,
depending on just one month of figures.
It's so funny.
It's like, oh, it's really high, but it's lower than last month, right?
The market's just looking for one positive news thing on this topic.
And so I'm pretty sure the market had a huge huge day when this came out i forget what it was like
every everything was as soon as the release came out you can see it's funny because oftentimes the
fed will release the new interest rates or you have these measures and especially i think the
fed interest rates usually happens around two and you can see a clear demarcation when the news comes out.
Yeah, yeah.
Oh, that's too good. All right, let's move on to some earnings.
Canadian Darling Brookfield Asset Management reported their second quarter.
And it was a good one, especially for the asset management side of the business.
And it was a good one, especially for the asset management side of the business.
Record inflows sitting on $111 billion in cash, which is the largest cash pile they've ever ended a quarter with. They did generate $1.4 billion in funds from operations, but that was actually down
about $200 million from this time last year. Now, here's a quote from the CFO.
We remain on track to complete the distribution to shareholders and listing of a 25% interest
in our asset management business by year end. So they've hinted at this and they now have confirmed,
year end. So they've hinted at this and they now have confirmed, yes, this is happening full steam ahead, right? Like there's no reason for us not to do this and we're going to be pursuing this.
Fee bearing capital was up to 392 billion, which contributed a 21% increase in fee-related earnings. So getting close to about $400 billion in capital that they manage
for their investors that they collect fees on. So fee-bearing capital just means money that
they're collecting and expense ratio on year after year. And it's a high margin recurring revenue. I always say that the fee bearing
capital is like closer to SaaS than it is like another type of business, right? Because it has
all those really great characteristics. I have a good acronym. So ASS, asset as a service.
I think we're onto something there. And you know what? When you find a good acronym, you got to run with it. So our next business vet, oh God, here we go. But yes, I like that.
Asset management as a service. They closed the acquisition of American National for 5.1 billion.
They closed the acquisition of American National for $5.1 billion. That's the insurance company,
right? I think over the past 12 to 18 months, they've really spun, like they've had more focus on insurance as a business. They're the Brookfield Reinsurance Partners thing. $750 million in asset
under management is today's number on the bottom of their statements.
Their fleet of assets are highly cash generative, inflation resistant, and they have inflation
linked like price ladders linked in them. So all is well for Flattened Team on that front.
Now, in the short term, the most exciting line item here is the asset management spinoff. It's
the the SPF spinoff. And we're getting so many questions on like what I've been getting lots
of questions in my in my DMs and stuff like, what are you going to do with the shares? Because,
you know, I'm going to get the spinoff shares. And I haven't decided quite yet, but as you know,
I prefer to own the mothership and then just get exposure to everything else.
But you know how much I love the asset management business. So part of me wants to own pure play of
that, but it's only 25%. So the mothership will still own 75% of the asset
management business. So first feeling I get is selling it and move and reinvesting that money
back into Brookfield, the corporation, because I believe, I haven't heard, listened to the call, but I believe the plan is to rename the mothership
as Brookfield Corp and have the asset management business be Brookfield Asset Management.
And so, you know, it's recording this on a Monday of a beautiful summer weekend in Northern Ontario.
So I haven't listened to the call yet, but I believe that I will hold the corporation, which holds controlling interest in all the
different names. I'm still benefiting from that one-time spinoff value accretion that they're
going to have from spinning off the asset management business, because it's going to
give investors some look through, better look through on what that
business is actually generating, which should unlock value. And as well, the pure play asset
managers that are publicly listed are trading at higher multiples. So that'll also unlock some
value there. So that's basically why they're doing it. Anytime they see an opportunity to
one time or long term unlock value for
shareholders, they don't hesitate whatsoever. Yeah, it's a good question. I haven't really
thought about it. I mean, I like the way you're thinking, but I personally may end up selling my
BAM shares, the corp shares to buy just the asset management, just because I own so much of BIP and BEP.
And that would give me the three exposures I like the most. I'm not a big fan of their property
business that they rolled up. So that's kind of the one part where I'm like, meh, I'm not too
sure about. I'm sure they usually do smart moves and it may be worthwhile in the long run. But that's kind of the first way
I'm potentially leaning is just owning the three that I really like because there are other parts
of the business as well, right? In Brookfield Asset Management or the C-Corp, if they do end
up changing their name. Right. Yes. No, I agree with you. I think that the infrastructure partners, the real estate business and the asset manager is definitely the jewel of the business.
But that already makes up so much of the market cap that I'm like, whatever, right? It's one of
those fundamental questions like, do you want to own the 10 companies in this ETF or own the ETF?
That's right.
It's a very similar type of thing.
Honestly, I don't think whichever approach you take here, you can really go wrong. I agree.
As do-it-yourself investors, we want to keep our fees low. That's why Simone and I have been using
Questrade as our online broker for so many years now. Questrade is Canada's number one rated online
broker by MoneySense, and with them,
you can buy all North American ETFs, not just a few select ones, all commission-free,
so that you can choose the ETFs that you want. And they charge no annual RRSP or TFSA account fees.
They have an award-winning customer service team with real people that are ready to help if you
have questions along the way. As a customer myself, I've been impressed with Questrade's customer service. Whenever I call
or email, every support rep is very knowledgeable and they get exactly what I need done quickly.
Switch for free today and keep more of your money. Visit questrade.com for details. That is questtrade.com. Here on the show, we talk about companies with strong
two-sided networks make for the best products. I'm going to spend this coming February and March
in an Airbnb in South Florida for a combination of work and vacation, and realized, hey, my place could be a great Airbnb
while I'm away. Since it's just going to be sitting empty, it could make some extra income.
But there are still so many people who don't even think about hosting on Airbnb or think it's a lot
of work to get started. But now it is easier than ever with Airbnb's new co-host network.
You can hire a local quality co-host to take care of your home and guests. It's a win-win
since you make some extra money hosting on Airbnb, but can still focus on enjoying your time away.
Find a co-host at airbnb.ca forward slash host. That is airbnb.ca forward slash host.
Now, moving on for some of our favorite news item, Elon Musk is back.
A celebrity.
Yeah, exactly. Elon is back in the news. And the reason why he was back in the news was because
he sold 7.92 million shares of Tesla last week for proceeds of around $7 billion.
Just a bit shy than that.
About $6.97 billion approximately.
Of course he did $6.9 billion in proceeds.
I rounded up a little bit.
What a greasy alien he is.
And it was sold between August 5th and 9th.
Now Musk had previously said that he had no further plans to sell tesla stock
after he sold 8.4 billion worth in april well surprise surprise elon saying one thing then
changing his mind afterwards is nothing new we've seen this script play out before and elon said
that he sold the shares more because of the ongoing legal battle for the purchase of Twitter
he was selling in case he's forced to buy Twitter and some equity partners in the purchase don't
come through he doesn't want to have to do that as an emergency sale of the stock now personally
I find that a bit funny because in terms of explanation, because wouldn't there have been some risk of an equity partner not coming through even before the legal battle?
I find that a bit eyebrow raising.
I'll just say that as the reason why he sold some more.
I mean, it might be the reason, but why wouldn't you have planned for that even before the legal battle is my question
and i'm pretty sure i saw him reply to another thing that was like are you buying tesla stock
and he's like yes like he's like a net seller and he's just like yes like to this random tweet
that someone added him like he's like yes i am like you know like it's just there's just no accountability for this guy at
this point i'm surprised that he would even have why would you have notifications on if you're him
or he just goes through the tweets and just sees one random yeah yeah yeah he just gets bored and
that's what he does oh boy of course it was 6.9 billion. He probably tried to do it at 4.20 PM.
And they're like, sir, the market is going to be closed for 20 minutes at that point.
He's like, oh, shoot.
Like, that's probably what happened.
All right, let's talk about Disney.
I wanted to highlight Disney because I just watched a fascinating look at Walt Disney's
life last week.
You know, I do random, you know, just nerd stuff, right?
Let's listen to this audio book on Walt Disney.
And from the early days to like the success in animation,
to the ambition, to nerdy quiet guy becomes massive entrepreneur, and then to the ambition
and imagine to build Disney World, which was like everyone in his life told him he was an
absolute maniac for pursuing that. His risk-taking was always like he was always working on distractions. He'd build this elaborate
train thing in this warehouse just because he had a real passion for trains. You'd think like,
oh, what a waste of money. What a waste of the founder and CEO's time. That ended up becoming
the first version of Disney World. All these random distractions he turned into
important business ventures. And it got me thinking, reading, obviously this being timely
because I was just listening to this thing, and then reading their earnings report today
for the podcast, because I was like, oh, I'll cover Disney. And it made me think of the Disney Plus thing.
And I don't give Disney enough credit. Not only I think that maybe I will in the future,
just given like hearing the story of Walt Disney and how he has like spun up all these new
businesses inside of the Disney Corporation, I haven't given them enough credit
for their ability to spin up new ideas. And my goodness, is Disney Plus a million times further
than I would have expected at this time. Never in a zillion years would I have would have guessed
that achieve the scale and ramp up
to where they are today as quickly as they did. When you look at revenue and operating income,
revenue is up 21% year over year. Operating income was up 50%. They added almost 15 million subs to
Disney+, bringing it to 221 million subs, which actually surpassed Netflix. This is very shocking
to me. If you think about that, just really? How? It's very close. Netflix has 220.67 million
subscribers. Disney Plus has 221. It is a rounding error between these two companies in terms of total subscribers.
So call it a dead even tie for subscribers. But given to where Disney has spun this up,
like seemingly overnight, it is quite impressive. On that same note for Disney+,
keep in mind, while as impressive as it is, I don't want to take away from that,
but the average subscriber only pays $4.35 USD per month, and Netflix is $11.96.
Disney Plus discloses its average revenue per sub in each region. It's actually close to around $6.25 in Canada and the US. But globally, it's $4.35.
And globally for Netflix, they are generating almost triple per average subscriber in revenue.
So it's not equal.
It's not apples to apples.
They're not the same.
But that's not to take away from what Disney Plus has spun up here.
Looking more at the results here on the segments, the media and entertainment distribution business
had 11% increase on revenues.
And then the parks experiences and products, this has been the one that really suffered,
of course, during the lockdowns and pandemic and stuff being closed. And so that is
up 70%. And so that's kind of fairly in line with what we've seen from every other company
reporting their second quarter for travel and leisure vacations and in-person stuff.
We've seen like a flat double across the board and 70% for Disney
Parks was to be expected. So it's nice to see that business come alive again too.
Yeah, I would suspect that Parks is probably like three quarters, 80% of what it was pre-pandemic.
That's what I've been kind of noticing. It's not quite back for most things. It's around that 75,
80%, but it looks awesome when you just look
compare it to last year because things were still quite depressed for the disney plus i mean the one
thing disney it was part of their strategy to price it fairly low so they would get those
subscribers so i anticipate and i think they may have announced already some U.S. increases for their subscriptions.
I anticipate that's coming.
And, you know, they're doing something right.
And honestly, it's not overall surprising.
I think the pace at which they achieve it is very surprising.
But when you factor in the pandemic, it makes a bit more sense.
And look, Disney has the intellectual property.
That's what it is, is right a lot of things that
we've seen on netflix and netflix has really struggled with that with some really popular
shows like a friends for example that was available on netflix then it's no longer there
because the content owner decided to pull it and put it on their own platform and you'll see a lot less of
that with disney because they own the content yeah i wanted to add something here because based on
what you're saying now things are back at like 80 ish i got an anonymous message from a well
it's not anonymous but i'm going to keep him anonymous, from a pilot of Air Canada.
I'm not going to share this with his identity here on the show. He gave us this little info,
and he said, the reason AC is still basically operating at 80% is not a demand issue. you. It's the fact that there are three major flights of Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong
running over three times a day on a wide body aircraft is just not happening. And so that is
a huge amount of volume that Air Canada used to serve in China. It's nice to have some of that
info, right? Because it's not something you're going to see on the surface it's something you got to actually know about the business and so that was a thank you
for sharing that guy but uh you know that that makes a lot of sense to me yeah i've taken the
flight from hong kong straight to toronto no stop i've taken that flight before and no stop stop
didn't stop in vancouver nope straight they had back about 10 years ago, a bit more than that when I came back from Taiwan. So I flew from Taiwan to Hong Kong and then Hong Kong straight to Toronto. And lucky for me, there was, we were on the window side. So the three seats was me and the lady and someone didn't show up for their seats. So we basically used a two edged seat and then had the middle for extra leg room. So that's pretty good.
Nice. I did that flight from Hong Kong to Toronto, but we stopped in Vancouver. And then
it was like one of those things where it's like Hong Kong Airlines did the leg to Vancouver and
then WestJet did the next leg. We show up on that flight and somehow my cheap ass is not paying for first class flights.
And all of a sudden, we're just placed one, one and one, two on the ticket. I'm like,
what? How do we have these seats? We sit down, it's like absolute royalty. Here you go. And I'm
like, we did not pay for this like it's got that's
probably like a four thousand dollar upgrade oh yeah those tickets like those business class
tickets or first class when you go overseas they are not overseas it was incredible but i don't
know how we lucked out on that so fun story from hong kong to toronto, now we'll move on to another Canadian company here. So the dual
listed Noive reported its Q2 2022 earnings last week. And after they reported the stock was really
down, I can't remember the exact percentage, but I think it must have been around like 15-20%
last week. The total volume for payments increased 38% to $30 billion. Revenues increased 19% to $211 million.
Gross margins were up 150 basis point to 83%.
However, when you go down the line there and you start looking at the cost of revenue,
which includes obviously their selling general and administrative administrative expenses those were up 52 percent
net income for the period was down 10 to 35 million free cash flow was up 11 for the first
six months of the year versus last year i had a look and they had some good information in their
release they mentioned that they were negatively impacted by the strong US dollar during
the quarter because they report mostly in USD. Again, something we'll be hearing a lot and we've
been hearing a lot from companies that report in US but get substantial amounts of their revenues
from other currencies. The US dollar has been strong compared to other currencies and we're
seeing that quite a bit.
I think Melly mentioned that when we talked last week about them.
Now they also revised their outlook for the rest of the year downwards due to those currency fluctuations.
But also lower volume in digital assets and cryptocurrencies.
They revised their revenue guidance 13% lower than their previous ones at the beginning of the year.
I used the mid-range here of both guidances to calculate it, so it's still a bracket.
But just to give you an idea, it was not great.
And I know some of our listeners own this stock, so if you're wondering why it was down on the earnings release,
I would say this would be the main reason. The other reason is probably
that their expenses really increase year over year, especially those SG&A expenses.
52% on SG&A with volume up 38%. So many of these fast-growing,
I'm going to call them startups because they're like, you know, billion dollar public companies, but it is fascinating to see them handle this kind of like increased expense line item, revenue slowing down a bit on the growth, still growing, like still growing quite fast.
But in what world you're going the wrong
way, right? Like you're like the path to profitability is like, okay, like keep up
this operating leverage. Yeah. Like this is great. At some point you reach operating leverage
and we have seen it just continue to diverge in terms of profitability, like expenses just keep creeping
up faster than revenues growing. And it's like, what's got to give, man? Like it still seems like
there's so much of this. And then you're like, ah, the share count. There it is. Found it. Got it.
Like there it is. It's the share count. Yeah, no, exactly.
I mean, the share count, something to really keep an eye on, especially for those fast
growing companies.
And it's something I'll touch as well on one of the other earnings coming up after the
next one that you'll talk about here, EQ Bank.
EQ Bank reported, you know, the stock was down like 6% on this news.
And then I watched, I looked at it, it was like,
oh, just because it was slightly lower than some expectations. But the actual report I thought was
pretty great. And if you are a dividend growth investor, oh my God, the growth on the dividend
is absurd. They grew at 7% quarter over quarter, which they
continue to do. They're doing the quarter over quarter hikes. This represents a 68% growth in
the dividend from just last year, which is bonkers. They were guiding for, we're committed
to 25% dividend growth year over year for the next five years, I think what they announced.
And then right after that announcement, banks weren't allowed to hike dividends. How long did
that last? A year and a half basically? Maybe longer? No, I think it was probably a year,
year and a half. I don't think it was. Yeah, I think it started maybe right around March,
April and probably around like end of spring of last year if I remember correctly. I don't think it was. Yeah, I think it started maybe right around March, April and probably around like end of spring of last year, if I remember correctly. I feel like it was after
Q2. I think it was a little longer. Yeah, anyways, it doesn't matter. So they're catching up. This
is a long roundabout way of saying like they're catching up on that div growth. Adjusted net
interest income was up 18%. They added 58,000 customers year over
year. Bank deposits at EQ Bank was up 16%. So that EQ Bank deposits, the number that I think
is really important for a variety of reasons, obviously. Yeah, there's equitable group,
and then there's equitable bank, and there's all this other segments to it. But EQ Banks, like they're really like kind of the moonshot and driving so much of
the growth at this company lately. And duh, they're sponsors of the show. So, I mean,
Simone, like that's got to account for like an absurd amount of growth if you think about it.
Like if you just think about our reach, right? Like, wow. They almost have 46 billion in assets under management. Revenues on the top line only
grew about 3.4%. So nothing super shocking, nothing amazing there, but record profitability,
15.6% adjusted return on equity, which is really good for this bank. 15.6% ROEs is wonderful.
I mentioned the dividend growth.
Dude, their IR page,
you look at the quarterly results for a company,
it's like a bunch of bullet points
and you're like, yes, give me the goods.
Yes, yes, okay, yep, I need this number.
EQ Bank has like 400 bullet points,
like legit, like 100 bullet points, like legit, like 100 bullet points of just every single from the like CET1
ratio, ROE, like non-adjusted ROE, like it is so many numbers. IR at EGU Bank,
simplify this for me, man. Like I can't look at 450 numbers. It's ridiculous,
especially because banks are confusing enough
already. Yeah, JP Morgan is always a bit like that too. They have like these tables with all
these different ratios kind of lined up in the earnings release. Like you just said, banks can
get pretty complex. I always find it a bit mind-numbing to Rindo's to say the least.
Yeah, yeah. It's like this is the most boring earnings release of all time.
No, but EQ Bank, I mean, it's EQB, Equitable Groups, the actual company. It's very impressive
story out of Canada here. Yeah. Some exciting product stuff coming too.
As do-it-yourself investors, we want to keep our fees low. That's why Simone and I have been using
Questrade as our online broker for so many years now. Questrade is Canada's number one rated online
broker by MoneySense. And with them, you can buy all North American ETFs, not just a few select
ones, all commission free so that you can choose the ETFs that you want. And they charge no annual
RRSP or TFSA account fees. They have an award-winning customer service team with real
people that are ready to help if you have questions along the way. As a customer myself,
I've been impressed with Questrade's customer service. Whenever I call or email, every support
rep is very knowledgeable and they get exactly what I need done quickly. Switch for free today
and keep more of your money. Visit questrade.com for details. That is questrade.com.
Here on the show, we talk about companies with strong two-sided networks make for the best
products. I'm going to spend this coming February and March in an
Airbnb in South Florida for a combination of work and vacation and realized, hey, my place could be
a great Airbnb while I'm away. Since it's just going to be sitting empty, it could make some
extra income. But there are still so many people
who don't even think about hosting on Airbnb or think it's a lot of work to get started. But now
it is easier than ever with Airbnb's new co-host network. You can hire a local quality co-host
to take care of your home and guests. It's a win-win since you make some extra money hosting on Airbnb,
but can still focus on enjoying your time away. Find a co-host at Airbnb.ca forward slash host.
That is Airbnb.ca forward slash host. Now moving on to the next name on the list,
another Canadian listed. I believe this one is dual listed if I remember correctly.
So, Ut8 Mining Corporation.
Don't be fooled by the name for those who are not familiar.
It's not a traditional mining company.
It is a Bitcoin mining company.
Now, revenues increased 31% to $44 million.
The company mined 946 Bitcoin during the quarter, an increase of 71%.
The increase was primarily due to an increase in hash rate, also known for those not familiar with the term as computing power, to solve these problems that are very intensive.
Those came from new mining rigs that they received during the quarter. The cost of revenue exceeded their revenues,
which is not surprising since the price of Bitcoin last year was much higher than this
year's during the same reporting period. They had a net loss of $88 million, which was 20 times
greater than last year. They were free cash flow negative to the tune of $7 million which was 280 percent more than last year now this is more
a result of having more computing power than anything else because they have higher expenses
that's because of ad hate strategy they will always be free cash flow negative even if the
price of bitcoin shoots way up that's because their expenses are in dollars
and they keep Bitcoin on their balance sheet
and sell very few of them.
So don't be surprised if you see that.
If you wanted a deeper dive,
you can go back to one of our episodes last October.
October and November, I think we released it
where I go into the business and a bit more how it works.
So those of you interested, you can go back to that episode.
Now, for that reason, you should always look at their assets when evaluating their financial
results.
For most companies, I think when there's earnings release, I think you're probably like that
too, Braden.
You know, I'll be familiar with their assets already.
So I'll usually just have a quick look at it just to make sure nothing like crazy has changed.
Their balance sheet is their income statement.
Pretty much.
Yeah, that's a great way.
Like kind of.
It should be one of the first things you looked at.
So obviously assets, it wasn't great for the quarter here.
Cash was down 57% to 60 million compared to last year.
57% to $60 million compared to last year. And the value of their digital assets on their balance sheet, mostly Bitcoin, of course, was down 42% to $188 million. Now, the good news is the company
has all its Bitcoin in custody and none of them in outstanding lending agreement like we've seen
some companies go bankrupt or be in real difficulty in the past couple months. Now a couple things I
wanted to touch on quickly. First if you're a shareholder you're most likely going to get some
dilution coming in the upcoming quarters. That's because if you're thinking about the cash I just
mentioned down 57 percent. So they will need to get some cash one way or another. And in the past, their strategy has been to issue shares because they've been very reluctant to sell Bitcoin.
Not sure what they will do this time around because their share price is much, much lower.
So it would dilute quite a bit more.
But clearly not a great quarter here.
But if you own Hut8 or are interested in investing in them, you have to be aware that this company
will go as far as the price of Bitcoin will go. I'm trying to like while you're saying this,
it's not a name like I follow particularly well. But whenever you talk about it,
my mind's always like racing about the unit economics and like how they fund it. And it's
like, it's kind of fascinating. And like an accounting way, it's kind of fascinating, right?
like it's kind of fascinating and like an accounting way it's kind of fascinating right and part of me is like because of hash rates they mine 71 percent more bitcoin this quarter than
they did the previous quarter and those hash rates will go up with the price going down they act
inversely proportional right because of the unit economics of mining Bitcoin? Not necessarily. So I actually, I,
my predisposition was thinking the same way as you. I actually looked at the mining difficulty
and it's actually been steadily going up. Oh, it has. Yeah, it has. So last year we saw a big
drop because China, the move away from China, that was one of the big reasons. It doesn't go
in firstly proportional to the price
like that's what i would have thought in theory i guess but the reason is the computers are getting
better and better and i think it's just over time the technology just kind of keeps up with it i
would assume that's the reason why yeah okay well scratch the thought i was i had the same idea i
actually had to look at it because i had the same reasoning. I'm like,
oh, for sure. They actually saw-
Because 71 is a lot, right? That's a big jump.
But it was basically they had deliveries of new machines, a lot of them. That's why. And
they were more efficient. Yeah.
Okay. So yes, I'm looking at this and I'm going, well, they should be quite resilient to the price
because they don't sell it. It's not a big deal until you realize that it just moves the price
of the actual stock moves with the price of Bitcoin. And that is how they fund the business.
The price of the stock really, really matters because it is how they actually
finance the business through dilution. If the stock is trading way lower and they need to
raise the same amount of money, you do the math, you have severe dilution as you mentioned.
It's like a bit of a catch-22 there on the economics of how they actually finance this thing.
Yeah, exactly. Anyone interested, listen to their earnings call. Their CEO, So, it's like a bit of a catch-22 there on the economics of how they actually finance this thing.
Yeah, exactly.
And anyone interested, listen to their earnings call.
Their CEO, she's very impressive.
She knows what she's doing.
So, very worthwhile listening to.
Jamie Leverton, right?
Yeah, that's right.
Yeah.
Okay, cool.
All right.
Let's talk about the trade desk.
Speaking of fascinating CEOs, Jeff Green is a freaking wizard. The founder of the business, you know, I love founder-led public companies and the trade desk is an option
there. Okay. So in software, so we're talking about the trade desk, ticker TTD. So in software,
you have this thing called the rule of 40. Okay. It's basically you want
your revenue growth plus EBITDA margin to be above 40 or at least close. Right. And so a perfect
example, like let's do an example here. Okay. 22% revenue growth. I have some cool company. I achieved 22% revenue growth and 24% EBITDA margins.
I would have a rule of 40 of 46. So 46 is good. This passes the rule of 40 test.
Now, the trade desk is a unique animal. You have a fast growing technology business that has been
run profitably since 2013. It's been profitable its entire time
as a public company and has always generated free cashflow. Revenue for the trade desk
in this recent quarter grew at 35% with a 37% EBITDA margin, which is quite fantastic
profitability. This gives you 72. Okay.. That is a bit of an outlier.
You don't usually have that level of growth and that level of profitability. It's just not that
common, really. It's really not. This company has been profitable since 2013, which I said.
Now, this is a small position for me. It's one of my smallest positions I own of any individual securities.
But it became a little bit larger last week when the stock jumped 36% in one day when
these results came out.
Customer attention, again, exceeded 95%.
Jeff Green is an absolute wizard.
Highly recommend just listening to him.
He even does like YouTube
videos. They have this cool explainer series on YouTube, explain in human terms or something,
which is basically explaining the complex technology of their ad business and explaining
it to me like I'm a five-year-old. And it's great if you're not used to understanding like how the auction works for like live bidding for
ad space on the internet. And I mean, who really is familiar with that stuff? So thank you for
making those videos, Jeff. They are building a unique competitive advantage in connected TV.
This has been a gigantic growth channel for them. Here's a quote from Jeff.
First, there is a secular tailwind that continues to propel us forward,
and that's the worldwide shift to advertising-fueled connected television.
I don't know that we've ever experienced a secular tailwind like this before.
Connected TV is moving faster and evolving faster than anyone predicted,
and if we continue to execute, I believe we will benefit as much as any company in the
world from this tailwind.
So, I mean, look at how much connected TV has evolved in the past five years.
Look how much it evolved during the pandemic.
And now look how it's evolving with these streaming platforms pivoting to a ad-supported
model as well.
I watched just in preparation for this, I didn't expect to stumble upon it, but I saw
a video in an interview with Jeff Green, and this video was done in 2020. And he said, I know that there are like subscriber supported video TV content out there today,
like the Netflix's of the world.
He goes, historically, television has been 95% or more supported by ads.
The whole business model is a media advertising business.
You're watching the NFL game and then all of a sudden there's six commercials roll through.
He said, I predict that it will be more than 95% moving forward, even despite these services.
You look, what's happening now, they're all moving ad supported and i just like seeing those little
tidbits of like okay this guy knows what he's talking about and he's so confident to say that
like i don't believe what they're doing is sustainable i mean he was right pretty much
right like he's right i think he's a bit ambitious for the 95 because if i had to pick for a lot of
the services i have like i'll as long as it's reasonable,
I'll pay up for no ads. That's just the way I'm in. And I think you're going to get those too.
But I think there's a lot of people, especially, we talk about CPI at the beginning,
costs are rising. If you can keep your subscription and reduce the cost by half,
say, why not do it if you're looking to save money like if
you're willing to go take a little pee break while they're doing the ads might as well yeah yeah i
hear what you're saying i mean you're in a higher snack bracket than you know the global population
for sure look at youtube right like how many people just put up with the ads versus paying
yeah for youtube premium you just you just soak the ads versus paying? I say that and I put up for the ads with YouTube.
Yeah, for YouTube premium, you just soak the ads.
Like you don't pay the 10 bucks or whatever it is.
You know where I'm coming from?
Like there's levels to this stuff.
Yeah.
We'll see what happens.
It's still TBD, but obviously a great quarter for the company.
Smashed expectations and the market seemed to like it as well.
Yeah, that's definitely another,
like the other
advertisement play that I'd be the most interested on. And after having sold Pinterest, I find that
Trade Desk and Google are really both in really good position. And it's funny because the ad space,
the social media ad space, however you want to call it, right, the internet ad space,
space, however you want to call it, right? The internet ad space. It's been very kind of all over the place in terms of results. We've seen some good, some bad, and some really ugly results.
So it's interesting to see that Google and the Trade Desk, I think they're the two that really
stick out as on the good side. Very high quality, for sure.
Now, moving on to the last name here, we referenced it at the
beginning here, Cineplex. So I wanted to do this because it is a Canadian company and it's one of
the most affected, I think, in terms of publicly listed businesses, the ones that were affected
by the pandemic and various lockdowns and restrictions. Now I'll reference both year-over-year revenues and 2019
revenues since I think it's the better indicator in a lot of cases and it's too bad but clearly
they did not reference the 2019 revenues in their earnings release so I had to go and look at the
financial statements and actually compare them and do the calculations myself. Now revenues...
We appreciate that because if you just look at their press release, it is not useful.
Yeah, it looks great.
It's not useful.
Yeah, it looks great.
So, revenues increased 439% to $350 million year over year.
Again, you may look at this and say, wow, if you're coming out of a coma-
Whoa, 440 percent wow
holy you're coming out of like uh you know a year and a half coma you're probably or you have no
idea that pandemic happened you're this this is really good numbers right there but then you look
at 2019 and that number is still 20 down now the theater attendance I wasn't able to find the
figures for 2019 but I think this one's a good indicator so people are returning
to the movies it was nine times higher than it was year-over-year. They made 1
million in net income compared to a loss of 103 million last year. For comparison
net income was 25 million in 2019 so they're still behind that. Their expenses as a percentage of their total revenues are still much higher.
They generated free cash flow of $20 million for the first six months versus free cash flow negative of $32 million last year for the same period.
Now, compared to 2019, free cash flow is still down 65% to those numbers.
free cash flow is still down 65% to those numbers. Now this one feels really similar in a lot of ways to Air Canada like we discussed last week. Numbers are impressive when looking at year over year but
it's still about three quarters 80% of what they were in 2019 in terms of sales. That's why I
mentioned it on Disney because it seems to be the trend here. They are trending in the right direction,
but clearly they need to get a hold of expenses, which are extremely high. Not a company I would
own personally, but I find really interesting these type of companies, even like just for case
studies to see how quickly they'll recover from the pandemic. And maybe it's going to take them
a few years to get back at those levels because, you know, I know you are, I know I am, like, I'm very comfortable going in public
with other people, I don't have any issue. It took me a little bit of time after the restrictions
started to come down. But now I'm all good. But, you know, we've said it before, not everyone has
the same comfort level. I've been to a couple of movies since they reopened in the
since the beginning of this year it was great to be there in person where i'm actually watching
something and not distracted by my phone so it was yeah and obviously the the popcorn was awesome
too just load up the butter do you just dump the whole well the whole brick of butter and just throw it on there
we did so the first time we went the masks were still required so we're talking to the girl and
i didn't hear because i could it was pretty loud i couldn't like tell what she said and she asked
their lips it's like exactly so she asked if we wanted layered butter i didn't
hear her but my wife heard her and she's like oh yeah that was too much that was too much for the
oh the layered dude yeah give me that for like a dollar extra i think and so they like put half
they butter it but then they put another half and they butter it again. It was too much, man. It's just too much for me. And the stuff at the bottom is like soaked.
It's like soggy with butter.
And I love it.
Soggy throughout.
Yeah, exactly.
I finished the whole thing before the previews end anyways.
So for the most part, I think people are fully comfortable with it.
I just, at this point, if it's at, what did you say?
Revenue's 20% down.
Okay. 80% of the revs from 2019. Okay. How much of that? I predict most of it. This is just me.
I'm not in the movie business, but I predict most of it is an actual shift away, a secular shift away from people
going to the movies as much. This was already an ongoing trend. I think, what if we normalize here?
I think that that's totally in the realm of outcome, maybe 85% of what it was before.
I wouldn't be shocked. In fact, I would think that that maybe is where
it normalizes. And people who love the movies are going to keep going to the movies. But people who
like, you know, it was a every once in a while thing, maybe they just don't go anymore at all.
Maybe they just watch at home. I think that we normalize somewhere below 19 is what I predict.
we normalize somewhere below 19 is what I predict.
Yeah.
I mean, it could very well be.
And their actual revenues are probably more like 75% if we use constant dollar basis.
Because let's be honest, I don't remember what the prices were in 2019,
but I'm going to go on a limb and say they're slightly higher right now.
True.
Yeah.
Think about the flex pricing power as well.
Have you done the VIP thing, by the way? Yeah we've done it it's pretty fun yeah you can get like beer or yeah
whatever a drink and it's pretty and it's more it's more comfortable too the seats are better
at least the one near us for me i i look at that and i'm like if i'm gonna go to the movies
i will spend double. It's already like
not cheap to buy a ticket if it's like 3D or whatever. Just give me double so I can sit in
that comfy ass chair and drink some beers. I'm all in on that. Like I love that.
Yeah, you get a little buzz going, enjoy the movie.
Oh yeah.
Especially if it's a comedy, man. Like it's going to be even better. So I'm all in on that. And I don't, again, I'm assuming average ticket prices have exploded for them on a skew basis
because of that.
Because of that, like what they're offering to people who want to make it a more fancy
date night.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Just an experience, right?
Yeah.
Yeah.
And if they really want to lean into that, I think that that's smart because we've seen, even if there is a tougher macro environment, people are still really,
really leaning into experiences. I don't see that big shift changing anytime soon. Like I think that
that's here to stay for a little while, like experiences over stuff, especially with young
people. Oh yeah. Especially with young people. Oh, yeah. Especially with young people.
They're inspired by that stuff.
Yeah, just maybe not every earnings season we'll do them,
but maybe once every two quarters or something,
just have a look how it's trending.
It's going to be an interesting just case study to have a look at.
Speaking of the movies, do people still bid up AMC?
Is that still like some meme stock here the stocks up like 73 since july oh my god this thing peaked at 60 usd in june of 2021
it is a third of that today yeah that's what happened chase meme stocks. Yeah. If you want to gamble on meme stocks,
you may get lucky or you might lose your shirt.
Yeah.
The stock market casino is alive and well year over year.
And so that was definitely one people were using.
Thank you so much for listening to the episode.
Simon, I'm just glad we made it through to the end.
I thought you were going to be like,
dude, I'm having a baby.
My wife's having a baby.
We're going right now. We're off to the... We've done were gonna be like dude i'm having a baby my life's having a baby we're
going right now we're off to the we've done the prenatal class so there's usually it's not a
switch like that so there's usually build up so i think we'd have probably a couple hours at the
very least because they won't take you right away you have to be at a certain stage until you
actually you go into the hospital yeah but could you imagine um sorry honey i am recording
a podcast like i don't know if you know we're a big deal that wouldn't happen so if you have
something to wish for us is that we're lucky and there are some available private rooms
that would be the one thing because i don't know if everyone saw the friends episode with like
rachel when she gives birth and there's like five different women that come in, one of them, including his ex Janice or I know.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
I know the one you're talking about.
Yeah, it's so awkward.
The ex comes in.
Oh boy.
Thanks so much for listening to the Canadian Investor Podcast.
If you are a real estate investor or you're looking to get into real estate, have you checked out the Canadian Real
Estate Investor? That is another podcast we've tucked in under our network of the Canadian
Investor Podcast goodness. So get that in your listening queue. If you're into real estate,
they just did an episode on like a 25 point checklist to do before you like buy a property, like 25 things to look at when you're investing in real estate.
And hello, like that is perfect for me.
Like, that's just like exactly what I need to hear.
So it's been great to hear, hear some of that stuff because it's something I don't like.
I'm not qualified to run the Canadian
Real Estate Investor Podcast. Oh no, me neither.
But those guys are. And so that's why you should tune in as the Canadian Real Estate Investor.
They'll probably do a dive too. I didn't have a chance to look at them today because they just
came out, but the Canadian Real Estate Association numbers, I believe the most recent one just got
released and they go over those a bit like we do
the earnings release on a regular basis. So they dig into them. So they'll do a much better job
than I could, even though they told me I actually did a pretty good job when we went over them in
the past, they will go into those. So if you're looking to know where it's at right now, just
give them a listen. Probably in the next episode, they'll go over that next episode or two.
Just give them a listen.
Probably in the next episode, they'll go over that.
Next episode or two.
It is a beautiful thing.
If you haven't checked out stratosphere.io, go check it out.
We got a nice looking new can of paint on the webpage too.
She's trying to optimize it. You go on and you're like, who's this for?
And we want to convince you within the first six seconds that it's for you.
Because if you're an investor in individual
securities, you got to know the business and you got to know the financials and we break it down
for you on a historical basis. That is stratosphere.io. Go ahead and check that out. It's free
to use it. Take care, guys. See you in a few days. The Canadian Investor Podcast should not be taken
as investment or financial advice. Brayden and Simone may own securities or assets
mentioned on this podcast. Always make sure to do your own research and due diligence before
making investment or financial decisions.