The Canadian Investor - MAGA, the trillion dollar club and should you buy BEP or BEPC
Episode Date: October 16, 2020MAGA(Microsoft, Amazon, Google & Apple), the trillion dollar club! It’s not a political podcast and we’re not about to start a few weeks before the U.S. Election. In the episode, we list bucke...ts of companies to look at by sector including some undervalued sectors such as oil and gas. Simon finishes the episode to answer questions we’ve been getting about BEP and BEPC. Tickers of stocks discussed : MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, BEPC.TO, INE.TO, RNW.TO, BEP-UN.TO, FSLR, SIE.DE, VWDRY, AY, AQN.TO, BLDP.TO, XOM, CNR.TO, CP.TO, CSX, UNP, KMI, ENB.TO, CVX, SU.TO, TFII.TO, DSG.TO, KSX.TO Twitter: @cdn_investing Getstockmarket.com Brookfield tax information document: https://bep.brookfield.com/stock-and-distribution/tax-information --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/the-canadian-investor/messageSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Yeah, well, it's important. I mean, it helps people find us and just reach more people and
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Let's not get twisted.
All right, today, had to throw a quick stab.
Today, we are talking about a couple of different buckets of stocks,
and then we're going to pitch a few names based on that bucket, or to just
stay away in some cases.
So the first bucket is MAGA, not to be confused with, of course, Microsoft, Amazon, Google,
and Apple, not the other MAGA.
And this is a bucket of stocks that are all trillion in market cap. So like the mega caps
of the world. And I posed a poll on my Twitter at Brado Capital, by the way,
of which one would you hold forever if you had to just pick one? The results were the following. Google at 16%, Amazon at 19%, Apple at 31%, and in the lead, Microsoft at 34%.
Simon, if you're answering this poll, you get to own one.
What are you doing?
I mean, I think I would probably go with Microsoft or Apple.
And I think they're all great companies, to be honest.
Overall, if you're looking really at the metrics, how profitable they are.
The valuation might be a bit rich, but valuation aside, just strictly looking at the companies, they're highly profitable.
For me, it's more of a governance standpoint.
for me it's more of a governance standpoint and I'm not a fan generally how Amazon and Google tend to be run from a governance standpoint they don't give Google I mean as well as they do they
really don't give a bleep about their shareholder rights and votes with the dual class thing going
on and speaking of governance we'll be doing a ESG episode the next few episodes.
So we'll talk a bit more about that. But that's more of a personal belief. And it's fine to invest
in what you believe in. So for me, it would be Microsoft or Apple.
Yeah, fair enough. I can get that. And any there's no wrong answer here i mean come on they're all worth over a trillion
dollars in market cap these are the ultimate cash generators of our generation and are worth so much
because of how good quality of companies they are um but for me, I'm going Google. You mentioned expensive, but Facebook and Google,
I know we're not talking about Facebook here, but Facebook and Google only trade at 20 times and 21
times 21 earnings per share, which is not very expensive when you scan the market. They're
actually in line with current PEs pretty much and
trading on a forward basis pretty cheaply. So Google has generated insane compound annual
growth rates, like just insane. I mean, they're that massive for a reason. So over 21% on revenue,
10-year compound annual growth.
And trading at six times sales, it's not outrageous for a company of this quality.
The margins are insane.
But if you look at the look-through earnings for the real cash generators of the search business and YouTube, it's pretty remarkable and now that they're actually separating the different income
streams on their financial reporting which took shareholders a long time for them to actually
start doing that it's interesting to see how fast youtube and cloud is growing and just the
monster that the search business is i think with the search business
and youtube alone just that ad business the rest of their what they call other bets and cloud you
could argue you almost get it for free i've done some math on this i'm not going to go into detail
into it too much but this business if you're talking about moat, every single person uses a Google product multiple times a day.
It's an incredible company.
18.7% return on invested capital the last 10 years.
What's not to like?
Simon, renewables, you love this space.
What are some companies you look at here? Yeah, renewables you love this space what are what are some some uh some companies you look at here
uh yeah renewables i mean uh there's definitely uh brookfield uh renewable partners or brookfield
bpc i guess uh the corporation and i'll talk a bit more about that uh later on in the episode
because we've had questions about the discrepancy between the BEP, the limited partnership, and BEPC. So
I'll keep that for the end of the episode. Aside from that, Energex Renewable is an interesting
one. It's a Canadian company. They have a big presence in Europe, mostly hydro, solar, and wind.
solar and wind. Aside from that, there is Alta. Sorry, I'm just kind of going blank right here.
TransAlta Renewable. TransAlta. I was like, you're not talking about Alta Gas, are you?
No, no, no. TransAlta Renewable is another interesting place. So you kind of see my pattern in terms of renewable energies. I do like the kind of, you know, stable companies that are not necessarily
producing the equipment, but they have guaranteed contracts, they have increases that are oftentimes
included in those contracts that increase over time, really stable cash flows. And really,
it gives you a nice play on renewable energy without the lumps and bumps of certain producers of
equipment.
More specifically, when you're looking at solar panel companies.
So those are almost kind of commodity.
So I would personally stay away from those.
But I do know that wind turbine system, those,
I think it's almost a duopoly.
You might know a bit more about those than i do
braden hey vestas being one of the biggest one and siemens is those the two names you're thinking of
yeah yeah that's it yeah i can talk a bit about vestas it's uh trades over the counter it's a
danish company trades over the counter under vwdry um it is this turbine
manufacturer is absolutely massive i will say when i looked at the stock like last year i was really
unimpressed with the financials you know growth over the last 10 years has not only hasn't really done much. But now you're seeing really nice growth in the last year or two
with renewables adoption really kicking into gear.
You're seeing 20% revenue growth now.
So this is accelerating.
They have a really strong position.
The tech is really good.
And, I mean, this could be where it takes off.
I mean, the stock has gone completely parabolic this year.
It stocks up massively in the last six months.
So the chart looks pretty much up and to the left at this point.
But one to keep on your radar, Vestas is a good company.
So again, that's ticker VWDRY.
Siemens, of course, is is a really really good company impressive
engineering um and they're in this space as well it's crazy how big these turbines actually are
when you get up close to them they are a feat of engineering i'm gonna go with a Canadian name, Algonquin Power, ticker AQN.
I trade on the New York Stock Exchange as well.
And Algonquin has had really, really impressive growth.
In terms of power generators and utilities, this is the fastest growing in the group.
And they also have not only renewable power gen, but they do water and gas utilities as well.
So they have that part of their portfolio.
But, wow, the growth has been really explosive.
25% 10-year compound annual growth rate on revenue.
Trades at about six times sales.
So it's not cheap.
But, again, it's a really solid grower the the rep the
the dividend grows like a weed and uh so another thing to consider canadian name that a lot of
people have been bidding up lately is ballard power ticker bl dp they make fuel cells just something to look at stocks up 260 percent in the last 12 months
this one is is a big potential but considering that it's at six times six billion in market cap
it's really really expensive so it is a high flyer to look at but they have a really strong
position in fuel cells.
Yeah, and something to add to that.
So actually, quick correction.
So it's not a duopoly for the wind turbines.
There's probably a handful of big players.
Sorry, I misspoke regarding that.
But to go back to Algonquin Power and Utilities Corp., I don't know if you knew that, Braden.
They own, I think, a close to controlling stake in Atlantica sustainable infrastructure.
So if people are looking for even more specific renewable power, that is without getting into Algonquin Power and Utilities Corporation. But if people like Algonquin, but they really want to
focus on the renewable aspect, Atlantica
sustainable infrastructure. It used to be Atlantica Yield. It is listed in the US.
So that is an option. It pays, I think, 5% or 6% last time I look in terms of yield.
Yeah, I was going to say Atlantica Yield. I didn't even recognize that they did that name
change to sustainable infrastructure um but uh whatever
gets the esg investors excited right they can get more capital exactly but these yield codes i mean
they're pretty pretty safe growers algonquin pretty much stayed flat while the rest of the
market was dropping off a cliff back in march so you getting growth, but you're also getting pretty low volatility
as these cash generators, these utilities are pretty stable. So something to consider. They're
really good backbones of a portfolio. When you're getting growth at the same time, it's really hard
to dislike having renewables in the portfolio. Yeah. And most of them, if you look at the total
returns, like the good ones ones i'll give you 10 to
15 percent a year so especially if i'm thinking about brookfield specifically they're looking
their goal is to give shareholders about total returns of 15 percent a year so yeah it might
not be at a gain in capital that you would see in other businesses like road stocks but the total
returns over time are very attractive and probably a bit less of heart palpitations to go with it.
Yeah, and it's funny you say that
because some of the growth,
like just top line on these renewable yield codes
is nothing to sneeze at.
So you are getting a little bit of a best of both worlds.
If you're a dividend investor, this is a place I'd rather be.
It's a good transition to just like pure play oil and gas.
People are looking for dividend names.
I just don't see the appeal when you can get some of these renewable yield cos and get a lot more upside. But when people
are looking at oil and gas, what are the types of things you're looking at in terms of companies and
which ones are better than the others in terms of quality?
As do-it-yourself investors, we want to keep our fees low. That's why Simone and I have been using
Questrade as our online broker for so many years
now. Questrade is Canada's number one rated online broker by MoneySense. And with them,
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So not so long ago, self-directed investors caught wind of the power of low-cost index
investing.
Once just a secret for the personal finance gurus is now common knowledge for Canadians,
and we are better for it. When BMO
ETFs reached out to work with the podcast, I honestly was not prepared for what I was about
to see because the lineup of ETFs has everything I was looking for. Low fees, an incredibly robust
suite, and truly something for every investor. And here we are with this
iconic Canadian brand in the asset management world, while folks online are regularly discussing
and buying ETF tickers from asset managers in the US. Let's just look at ZEQT, for example,
the BMO All Equity ETF. One single ETF, you get globally diversified equities. So easy way for Canadians to get
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Yeah. And I mean, there's a lot of oil companies in the US and Canada, obviously, and most of them
have been hit pretty hard in the last
six months to a year, especially with the pandemic. So when you get like demand for oil that just
crashes globally, that's when it starts to hurt those companies. Some of the companies that fared
better than others are the integrated oil giants, but also pipelines. Again, they did not fare all that well but better than the ENP so the
exploration and production companies so I would tend to stay a bit more towards those so and just
some names to look at and I'm not saying one is necessarily awesome over the other just some names
to look at if you're looking to do some value play digging in the oil and gas.
So you can think about the U.S. Chevron, ExxonMobil.
You can also think in terms of Pipeline, Kinder Morgan in the U.S.
I would stay away from the E&P, like I said, so the drillers and the ones that are doing the exploration
because they tend to be pretty indebted and they don't have stable cash flows
and they're really dependent on the price of oil.
So that's why I would kind of stay away from those.
In Canada, the one name that tends to come to mind is Suncor.
They did do some layoffs recently and I do feel for those who were laid off by Suncor,
but it was probably the right move for them to be sustainable,
medium and longer term. Another type of business would be Enbridge. Again, high debt, but they have
a lot of guaranteed contracts, a bit more stable cash flows. But that is the trend that you'll see
in oil and gas, regardless of what type of oil and gas company you look at, you'll typically see pretty high debt.
So you want to see companies that is able to at least keep their cash flow stables to
be able to pay off that debt.
And honestly, you'll see a lot of them with really high yields.
Some have recently slashed their dividends and some are probably near slashing the dividend.
One last thing I would mention about oil and gas is you may want to look a bit more towards
gas companies. So natural gas, if you're more leaning towards things that are more environmentally
friendly as a whole. So natural gas would be better than oil from that perspective,
or companies that are actively
starting to transition away from oil and gas. Personally, like I mentioned, and we can talk
about that a bit more on our ESG episode, I used to invest a bit in oil and gas. And just for
personal beliefs, I'm trying to stay away a bit more from that. but i do recognize that there is some value plays in there and even though
we might be kind of past peak oil who knows uh you know we're still going to be using oil probably
for the next couple decades yeah good point i mean if you're looking if you're throwing out a deep
value screen out into the market you're gonna see a lot of these names trading dirt cheap because of those reasons you mentioned.
And these businesses are so commoditized that they have very little if no pricing power, more so on the ladder of zero pricing power.
pricing power, more so on the ladder of zero pricing power. And that's just not what I define as a quality business. And the returns have been backing my point there. So if you want some
multiple expansion, if you're looking for returns in multiple expansion, you could do quite well
with some of these names. I'm I'm I am an environmentalist, but I'm not naive enough to know that we still heavily require oil and gas.
We are not close to getting off of it.
I wish we were closer,
but let's not kid ourselves.
These names are going to exist.
Enbridge is a quality company.
That being said, does the future for these companies
look better than they are right now? And this is just what investing comes down to.
If you're running an investing checklist and you're doing like one of these gut checks for
you're about to open a position and you're just like
on the fence is this company going to be better stronger more profitable wider moat in 10 years
if you can't confidently say yes to that that's problematic and oil and gas is just in that bucket of problematic for me, not only because they're commoditized, but does the future look better for them than the current situation?
And I just don't know if I can say honestly, yes.
So you could find some nice multiple expansion on these companies.
They're not going anywhere.
Natural gas to your home is essential're not going anywhere natural gas to your home is essential
and not going anywhere so you could find some nice gains on multiple expansion and
i won't uh i'll be very happy for you if you get those gains but this that's just my take
yeah i think we're on the same page for that. So let's go to transportation and logistics.
I'll leave that one to you, Braden.
I know you have a name that you've said before that you really like.
Yeah, the CEO of Transforce or TFI, they keep changing their name,
TFI International, ticker TFII.
You might have seen them on the road. They got the red swoop over their many,
many companies they've acquired over the past couple decades. And depending on when they
painted that truck, it might say Transforce, their previous name. So Alain Bedard has done
an amazing job of tucking in acquisitions in the trucking space their value
investors at heart they find distressed trucking assets and continue to grow the fleet luckily
they have had very underpriced growth and they've been in this secular trend of logistics and last mile delivery which has been
so key for all e-commerce take and and adoption and they've benefited from that while trading at
like nine times earnings the whole time now all of a sudden you're seeing this huge multiple
expansion in the stock um and and the market's finally rewarding their growth,
saying, okay, this is an uninteresting, unsexy business,
but they're very good operators,
they're good at keeping costs down,
they're good at finding the right acquisition targets
across North America,
and it's been quite a performer.
I get a notification that it hits all-time highs almost every single day.
It was a stratosphere pick in April.
The stock is up over 120% since then and close to 170% since the March lows.
So it got beat up too much, but now the market's recognizing its growth.
but now the market's recognizing its growth.
I mean, compounding growth at 11% on revenue on a really unsexy business is quite impressive.
So good on them.
Again, is trucking going to be earth-shattering returns
for your portfolio?
Maybe, probably not.
But if you're looking for something that is underpriced growth
uh it sure was a whole lot cheaper uh six months ago but i still would buy it here and buying it
here so this is a this is a great company yeah i'm gonna go in the sexy world of trains, railways. Wow, gorgeous.
Yeah, I think you guys know with some of our early episodes,
I did mention I'm still a happy shareholder of Canadian National Rail.
So that is one that I think is worth a look.
It's not trading very cheaply right now, but definitely interesting.
The reason why I like railways and Canadian National Rail specifically is they have really strong moats.
So they go oftentimes across provinces, across states.
It's not easy to get the approvals to build those railways.
So there's a really strong barrier to entries.
And they're just a backbone of the economy as well.
So to me, I think it's my maybe the Warren Buffett
in me a little bit. I do love those type of companies. So I find are really interesting.
So there's CNR, obviously, there's Canadian Pacific, it's also an interesting play person,
I would prefer CNR because it has coast to coast in Canada and to the US Gulf Coast as well.
But CP in Canada, and then the US, you. Gulf Coast as well. But CP in Canada and then the U.S. you have some plays as well.
So you have Union Pacific.
You have CSX.
You have a couple other more kind of regional railways as well.
But I mean it's really about the mode in those businesses.
It won't be crazy growth.
But they have been fairly resilient to COVID-19.
They've went down a bit in revenue but
nothing too alarming the one thing you have to keep in mind though they tend to be a bit
tied to the economy right so if the economy is doing well they'll be doing well and if the
there's a slowdown they'll be slowing down but over a long time they should provide you with
some really good returns and they have a nice little
dividend as well to go with that yeah nice little dividend is a understatement i mean on a yield
it's little but my god they've paid this forever um and grown it forever i know union pacific has
paid dividend for over 100 years so thank you for picking another unsexy
slow grower. This is the definition of a moat like no other in the railway biz. So
I've never owned any rails. I probably should, but I don't. good good for you being a shareholder of cn rail these this infrastructure
has been in the in the ground for 100 years and it's going to be in the ground for another 100
years so the definition of stability i know i'm pretty sure bill gates has a outrageous amount
of shares in cn rail i don't know the amount of that can you confirm that i really don't
i don't know i'd have to to look that up but i mean what's pretty sure yeah and who knows maybe
at some point too there's going to be um like kind of electric trains that uh are can carry as much
load like i don't know exactly where they are at in there but um you know that could happen as well
exactly where they are at in there but um you know and that could happen as well yeah it definitely can i know there's optimism about doing fuel cell trains as well because then you don't have to bring
overhead electric wires across all of the uh the rail which would be ideal so that could be an
interesting way to to uh decarbonize the industry yeah, it's really hard to not like the rails.
I'm going to give you two software plays Canadian as well.
The SCARTA systems and Canaxis that's a ticker DSG and KXS respectively.
These companies have seen outrageously good returns lately.
Um,
and what they do is they optimize and allow people to
manage logistics better as a software as a service biz model done very well grow very fast and trade
at appropriate multiples. It's very hard to find SaaS businesses of these quality
with that without paying a pretty penny, but
something to consider. As do-it-yourself investors, we want to keep our fees low. That's why Simone
and I have been using Questrade as our online broker for so many years now. Questrade is
Canada's number one rated online broker by MoneySense. And with them, you can buy all
North American ETFs, not just a few select
ones, all commission-free, so that you can choose the ETFs that you want. And they charge no annual
RRSP or TFSA account fees. They have an award-winning customer service team with real
people that are ready to help if you have questions along the way. As a customer myself,
I've been impressed with Questrade's customer service. Whenever I call or email, every support rep is very knowledgeable and they get exactly
what I need done quickly. Switch for free today and keep more of your money. Visit
questrade.com for details. That is questrade.com. So not so long ago, self-directed investors caught wind of the power of low-cost index
investing. Once just a secret for the personal finance gurus is now common knowledge for
Canadians, and we are better for it. When BMO ETFs reached out to work with the podcast,
I honestly was not prepared for what I was about to see because the lineup of ETFs
has everything I was looking for. Low fees, an incredibly robust suite, and truly something for
every investor. And here we are with this iconic Canadian brand in the asset management world,
while folks online are regularly discussing and buying ETF tickers from asset managers in the US.
Let's just look at ZEQT, for example, the BMO All Equity ETF. One single ETF, you get globally
diversified equities. So easy way for Canadians to get global stock exposure with one ticker.
Keeps it simple yet incredibly low cost and effective. Very impressed with what BMO has built in their ETF business.
And if you are an index investor and haven't checked out their listings,
I highly recommend it.
I bet you'll be as pleasantly surprised as I was that BMO,
the Canadian bank is delivering these amazing ETF products.
Please check out the link in the description of today's episode
for full
disclaimers and more information. Simon, is there anything else you want to talk about in these
groups or we can go to BEP? Let's talk BEP. So when I'm talking about BEP, I'm talking about
the limited partnership and BEPC, I'm talking about the C-Corp or the
traditional C-Corporation. So I've been getting a lot of questions about, oh, should I invest in BEP
or should I invest in BEPC? So I'll try to break it down to you and the reasoning why they created
the C-Corp, so BEPC. And you can apply most of this reasoning as well for BIP and
BIPC. But to keep things so simple, I'll just talk about BEP and BEPC. So like I mentioned,
BEP is a limited partnership. So essentially what happens is the dividend or what they call
the distribution is a return of capital,
whereas BEPC is a dividend, so like a traditional corporation. One of the main reasons why BEP
went to this structure is because a lot of institutional investors in the United States specifically did not want to add BEP because of
its structure to its funds because there could be some tax consequences depending on what type
of accounts people have them in. So a lot of fund manager or institutional investors did not want to
invest in BEP for that reason. So management decided to create the BEPC shares.
For BEPC, it was also created in order for them to facilitate the transaction when they
purchased the remaining shares of Terraform Power. So that's kind of a breakdown for that.
In terms of the value, so you actually get the same part of the business regardless if you have a 1BEP share or 1BEPC share.
So the actual dollar dividend will be the same regardless if you own BEP or BEPC.
So that's really important to understand.
Having said that, why is there a price discrepancy between the two?
It all comes down to offering demand from what I can understand.
So there's a lot of more demand for the BEP shares.
So you can look at the daily volume if you look at the US listed shares.
So you have an average daily volume of around 430,000 shares per day for BEP.
around 430 000 shares per day for uh bep and for bepc it's 662 000 in terms of average volume so i took that data a couple days ago so it's possible it's slightly different um but that's
a right there a good explanation to why there's a bit more demand right there and the shares are more expensive in terms of BPC compared to BP
so what works best for you so there's a couple of ways to look at it first of
all if you're holding these shares in a taxable accounts or non registered
account I would recommend that you do your due diligence if you're going to
own the BP shares because there could be some tax
consequences for those. If you're going into a registered account, so either RSP or TFSA,
then it really depends what you're looking for. So in terms of the tax consequences,
if you hold it in those accounts, so I will add a link regarding that. So BEP specifically directly from their
website, they say that it is an eligible investment when it comes to RRSP and TFSA.
And when we say eligible investment, that's actually the term that the CRA uses for TFSA and RRSP. So, and I've personally have shares in both my TFSA and both my RRSP for
both the BEP and BEPC. I've had them for over three and a half years now and I've not had any
issues. But again, make sure you do your due diligence. But that is the information straight from BP's website. So once you get the tax stuff out of the
way, you really, you look at it from, there's two ways to look at it. If you're really looking for
income, then of course, BP will be the right choice for you because the shares are less expensive.
So even though you get the same cash dividend per share, because it's less expensive, your yield on cost will automatically be higher.
So that's the advantage there.
So if you're looking for an income, BEP shares are probably the way to go.
If you're looking for more capital appreciation based on the small sample history since BPC has started training,
small sample history since BEPC has started training. They tend to have a premium and you can probably make a case that the capital appreciation will be greater for the BEPC
shares versus BEP. At the end of the day, will the total returns be better for one way or the other?
That is difficult to say. I guess time will tell. Like I said, I do own shares of both BEP and BPC.
One of the reasons for that, or the main reason, is I had shares of Terraform Powers when they purchased the rest of the shares.
So I did get BEP shares from that. And the other reason is when they created the BEP shares, BEPC shares,
is when they created the BPC shares,
they gave one BPC share for four shares of BEP when the entities were created.
So that's how I got those BPC shares.
One last thing that I did forget to mention
for those of you who are interested
or specifically if we have some U.S. listeners,
a lot of brokers in the U.S.
or specifically if we have some US listeners.
So a lot of brokers in the US will actually not even allow self-directed investors and registered account to purchase BP or BIP shares because they're limited partnerships.
And for the most part, they can have tax consequences in the US.
Although I believe BP does say that they shouldn't, but
a lot of brokers still won't allow people to purchase them. So that is on top of the fund
managers and institutional investors. That's an additional reason for them to create that C
corporation. Typically, the reason why those brokers have those restrictions in place is because there are tax
consequences specifically for the MLPs so the master limited partnership so you tend to see
those structures specifically well not specifically but a lot in the pipeline industry so there are
tax consequences for those as a side note so if you're looking to invest in U.S. pipelines and their MLPs, make sure you do your due diligence because I have no idea exactly how it works when it comes to the TFSA, RRSP, or other types of accounts in Canada.
So always make sure you do your due diligence when it comes to that.
But in a nutshell, that would be the reason why there's
a discrepancy between the both of them in terms of price. And like I said, and I'll say it again,
for everyone investing in them, make sure you do your due diligence when it comes to taxes,
because we are not tax expert. So I hope this helps clarify the question that we do get quite a bit in terms of BEP and BEPC.
Yeah, that's a good rundown.
I mean, deciding on which one is going to give you better returns, I mean, it's total coin flip.
And you're splitting hairs at that point.
You got more to worry about in terms of decisions to make than that. So
I personally would prefer the corp, but that's why I own Brookfield Asset Management for complete
simplicity, because these are decisions I don't want to have to make, because you can own BAM and own all of it and get the asset management business as
well. But I've beat that debate long enough. All right, guys, I think that does it for this episode.
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