The Canadian Investor - Mailbag Episode: Emerging Markets & Fixed Income Allocation, DCA vs. Lump Sum and more!
Episode Date: December 21, 2023In this episode, Simon and Dan answer investing questions from listeners. Thank you to all of those who submitted their questions! Check out our portfolio by going to Jointci.com Our Website Canadi...an Investor Podcast Network Twitter: @cdn_investing Simon’s twitter: @Fiat_Iceberg Braden’s twitter: @BradoCapital Dan’s Twitter: @stocktrades_ca Want to learn more about Real Estate Investing? Check out the Canadian Real Estate Investor Podcast! Apple Podcast - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Spotify - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Sign up to Stratosphere for free 🚀 our platform for self-directed stock investing research. Register for EQ Bank, the seamless digital banking experience with better rates and no nonsense.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Welcome back into the show. This is the Canadian Investor Podcast, made possible by our friends
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of your own portfolio and gain the confidence you need to succeed in the markets. Hosted by Braden Dennis and Simon Belanger.
Welcome back to the Canadian Investor Podcast.
I'm here with Dan Kent.
Dan, how are you today?
I can tell that you're still a bit under the weather and we should actually play a little game
because people I'm sure can hear that my voice sounds a little bit different.
So I guess what virus we have is probably
i know yeah so yeah how are you feeling a bit better or still uh still got that dry cough right
well the dry cough just showed up and i don't know if you can tell in my voice or not but it
it ended up being like i was like minorly sick just coughing a bit you know a bit of a fever
and then it went away and then i woke up like days ago, it was like the worst it had ever been. And now it's just like, just hacking my lungs out.
So, I'll try not to do it too much today. But yeah, it's, I don't know what's going around,
but it's lasted a long time. I've had this for almost a few weeks now.
Yeah, for me, it's been, it's not been too bad. I mean, I've had like, I think you saw me last
week, my nose was just dripping profusely.
Now I'm in the phase where I'm just really congested.
I'm not coughing too much.
But like I said, I'm prone to ear infections.
I have to be careful on that.
And also, you know, I'm sure the parents listening to this can relate.
But taking care of a sick child while you're sick yourself is one of the worst things about parenting is just the
worst because you don't feel good but you gotta suck it up and still take care of uh of another
human so it's been uh been pretty challenging but maybe maybe we should have recorded this
show with a hazmat suit on yeah that would have been a good idea but people can rest assured we're
we're in our separated areas.
And hopefully a lot of people can relate because I know it's the time of year where there's a lot of these viruses going around.
So if you've been hit with one of those, do hope that you recover quickly.
Now we'll move on on this episode.
It is a special episode.
Normally, people will know we do a news and earnings episode on the Thursday release. But because Dan is lucky, actually, and going down south, we're recording this a bit in
advance and we decided to do a mailbag episode slash ask us anything.
So we'll get started.
Most questions will chime in both of us.
There might be one of us that does take a little bit of the lead.
But the first question came in
from Twitter, and it is a mix from Twitter and emails as well. And also on Blossom, I know you
picked a few questions there, right? Yeah, there was a lot of good questions on Blossom. There was
actually probably like 10 or 15 of them. So I just tried to pick a couple. Sorry if I didn't get
around to yours, but there's limited time, right? Yeah, yeah, exactly.
And same for me, right?
We had some emails.
We had some people reach out to us on Twitter.
We try to do as many as we can, but we want to give thoughtful answers.
So that's also the reason why we couldn't do all of them.
Maybe if people really like this, we can do another one in the new year and answer some more questions because it's always
fun and sometimes there's questions that you know may sound pretty easy to some people but in the
end you realize that it can actually benefit a lot of our listeners so that's why we we decided to
pick them so the first one is a question from twitter slash x from add divi divit investors
i'm gonna assume that uh this person likes to invest in dividend
stocks so what percentage of your portfolios do you intend to allocate to each of the following
for the next five years and why not more so he's talking about specific regions here and mention
asia europe emerging markets so i'll start off with this one so i think that's a great question
and it's something i do think about quite a bit, although it's been extremely busy for me this fall. So I haven't had
the chance to work on my portfolio as much as I would have wanted to, but something I'll definitely
do during the holidays because we're trying to record some episodes in advance. So we do have a
bit of time off. I don't have any specific percentages. I'm still
trying to figure that out but some of the areas that I'm definitely looking to get exposure to
in Asia would be, well more exposure to in Asia would be India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines,
Thailand and Vietnam. In South America I would. South America probably as a whole,
but definitely some emphasis on Brazil.
And I think Argentina is a very interesting case with Javier Millet having won the election.
I think he was just sworn in just a couple days ago
or even yesterday.
And it remains to be seen
what will come of his bold economic reform promises
and if the dollarization,
so essentially changing the Argentina to the US dollars.
He's getting rid of, he wants to go to the US dollar?
Yeah.
Yeah.
So that's the idea because the Argentinian pesos has just been devalued and devalued
and devalued over the years.
If people look at the Argentinian market, if you look at it in a peso
kind of currency, it actually looks like it's performed well. But then if you look at it in
the US dollar, it's called the Merval Index from Argentina. It's essentially flat since the early
2000s in USD. It's slightly up. And the big reason it's up because the markets have been rallying since the election of Yavier Millet.
So it remains to be seen whether he'll be able to do that because my understanding is that he doesn't control their Congress over there.
There are more kind of center parties, whether it's center left, center right, that he'll have to work with.
But it's definitely bold and I don't have too many views on that from a political standpoint.
All I know and I've watched a lot on Argentina is that they've suffered a lot because of inflation, especially the poorest.
And whatever mainstream media is saying about him, I think you have to understand where the Argentinian people are coming from.
And obviously they wanted to see something different because it's not working currently for them. So that's kind of my take on these. In terms of the
other areas you mentioned, for Europe, for example, it'll be more on a case-by-case basis for me just
because Europe's a pretty mature market. In the US, you have a lot of businesses that have exposure
around the world. So for me, it'll be a case by case in terms of business.
And the last thing here is I do have some exposure to the world in general with the
All World Equity Index Fund that I have with my pension.
And part of that fund actually also has 10% into emerging markets.
So that's kind of the way I'm seeing it.
I don't have any specific percentages, but it's something that I'm looking at in terms of getting more exposure to those regions.
in North America that I really haven't spent too much time seeking out emerging market exposure.
So to say how much of the portfolio I'd allocate to it, I couldn't really give an honest answer.
I'd probably have to sit down and really figure that out. I used to have a pretty big chunk of my portfolio in XAW, which is an all world ETF that just doesn't include Canada. So I think it's about 60% US exposure and 40% emerging and developed markets
in Europe and Asia. But I ended up selling all of this off and buying a bunch of US dollars when
the Canadian dollar went so high. I think it was like 83, 84 cents. So I sold off that XAW and
just converted it all to US dollars. It ended up working out pretty well just because emerging
markets had just such a solid run-up, but have really struggled since. But there is no doubt
that they do have potential. They don't trade at as large evaluations as the US markets,
but they do have faster growing economies. Just an article that I read this morning said that
emerging market GDPs are expected to grow on average by 4.1% in 2024, whereas developed
countries are only around 1.4%. But I would say that if I do plan to add exposure, I wouldn't
really seek out like individual equities. I'd probably just buy like an emerging market ETF,
like ZEM or something, something like that, that just has, you know, it's got a basket
of emerging market companies. I don't know enough about, you know, emerging markets and just
developed countries, emerging countries overall to ever, you know, dive into individual equities.
I think an ETF for me there would be the solid decision that I'd end up making.
Yeah, I think that would be mostly my approach as well.
I think with the exception of Europe would probably be that I'd probably pick and choose
the business a bit more.
And that's a great point.
And XAW, that's one that I've had on my radar more for people looking for like one or a
couple of funds, especially I like that there's no exposure to Canada.
So it's excluding Canada and you have exposure around the world just because,
not because I don't like Canada, but because people tend to be a bit more
to like home country bias when it comes to that. And question for you in this vein of
questioning as well is, I'm not seeking exposure to China personally. What's your view on that
quickly? Yeah.
No, I think it's too, there's too much. I have never really sought out exposure to China just
because of like politically there. It just seems like I don't want to touch that market. I mean,
I think there's plenty of opportunities here. Like it does have potential to be a pretty fast
growing market, but I mean, just politically, there's so much instability there overall.
And just it's not a market that I've ever really sought out.
I know a lot of people were big fans of Alibaba.
But what has that stock done for quite a while?
It's gone down quite a bit.
Yeah, it's not performed all that well.
$68.
Yeah, the other issue with China
right now is that kind of real estate debt bubble that they have. Yeah. That's a big wild card. And
obviously, I think the Chinese banks, which are pretty much all state-owned, would intervene at
some point. But then what does that impact on the currency and all the ripple effects? I mean,
there's also the population growth that is stalling. So there's a lot of issues with China.
But yeah, the political space, I mean, they really will change on a dime, right?
And one, you know, one year they're really supportive of businesses
and the next are clamping down and, you know,
they're kind of restricting businesses to some degree.
So that's why I'm not, I'm actually, I used to have some exposure to china and then i sold that off i think it was like a year a year and a half ago
yeah yeah i don't i can't seem to remember if if xaw is x china as well i'm not sure if it is i'd
have to look that up but there is plenty of uh emerging or developed market etfs that you can
get that i think are x x china yeah exactly x, no, it is. There is some Chinese exposure. I actually had pulled the
fun facts, but it's very, very small. I mean, it's 2.62%. So it's definitely underweight China.
You could almost consider that excluding China.
Pretty much, yeah.
Yeah.
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We'll move on to the next question because we do have quite a few,
and we don't want this episode to last forever.
The next one, you won't be involved in this one, it'll be quickly.
We've had this question before, but for new listeners,
and at least while I'm answering, Dan can cough away a little bit,
so that's all good.
So this one is from at diamond road six on twitter so you're just asking how i
met brayden and how we decided to start the podcast so we've had that one a few times like i
said if there are some new listeners so it came back to 2019 in the summer of 2019 i reached out
to brayden because he had this i think it was called stratratosphere Investing Podcast or Stratosphere something.
And he had been doing some podcasts but wasn't the most consistent.
And I thought he was pretty interesting.
But I noticed he hadn't done some in a couple of months.
So I reached out to him to see if he would be interested in starting one that would be Canadian focused. Because there wasn't really that much out there with Canadian investing content.
So he was interesting in the idea.
But as people know, I live in Ottawa.
He lives in Toronto.
So what happened is I had a work pension training in Toronto in September of 2019.
So while I was there, one night I was heading to the Blue Jays game
because these trainings typically end around 4 p.m.
So the Jays were in town that whole weekend, that whole week.
So I decided to go see a couple of games.
And on the way there, grabbed a drink with Brayden.
We chatted a bit and we're like, you know what, let's give this a shot.
And we started, I think it was October or November of 2019 around there.
And, you know, it was a grind at the beginning because you only have uh you know
family and friends listening and at most you know we would be happy to get a couple hundred
listeners per episode and we never thought it would be uh this big and obviously the pandemic
definitely helped us because a lot of people had nothing to do so our numbers grew but that's
essentially how we met and uh you know we haven't looked back since so it's uh
it's pretty good story if you ask me and just for people look if you have an interest in something
even if you can make some really good connections on the internet if you're just you know don't be
afraid reach out to people you might not always get answers that's fine but if you don't try you
know it won't go anywhere that's for sure so at least if't try, it won't go anywhere, that's for sure. So at least if you try,
something might end up. Yeah, it was pretty similar with us at Stock Trades and Matt.
It's kind of weird. We just threw a Facebook post up one time and we were looking for writers for
our website. And he commented, he's like, oh, I can do it if you want. And you fast forward,
I think that was in 2016 or 2017. And you fast forward, like, I think that was like, that was in like 2016 or 2017.
And you fast forward now and he's like, you know, a huge part of the business.
So, yeah.
And I mean, podcasts have just exploded in popularity recently too.
It's, I mean, I don't even listen.
I don't even listen to music anymore.
I just listen to podcasts.
That's pretty much it.
Yeah.
Mostly the same.
So, yeah, no, it's been uh i think that the
lesson here for people is definitely you know put yourself out there if you have an interest in
something you never know what it can actually come out of so now the next question here question from
bronte or bronte and i do apologize if i'm butchering your name here i'm doing my best
and probably with me speaking
of my nose right now, it's not helping. But she wants to do a combination of investing and put
some cash aside in something like a GIC or HISA, which a high interest savings account in case of
an emergency such as a job loss. She also asked if it's best to max out your TFSA before investing elsewhere or do a mix
of both. So I thought that was a really good question. It was a bit longer than that, the
question, but that's the gist of it. And for the most part, we did try to summarize a question to
keep it a bit briefer. Now, I separated the answers into two. So to me, there's like the portion of cash for an emergency and then TFSA
compared to a non-taxable account compared to an RRSP. So cash for an emergency, typically,
it's recommended to have three to six months of cash as part of an emergency fund. So if you lose
your job, that could give you enough time to find something else. Even if you don't find a job that pays the same amount with having three to six months, and even if you
have a smaller or lower salary, well, that three to six month can actually supplement your income
for a little bit of time while you try to get to that income level that you were at. If you don't
have an adequate emergency fund, the issue is that you'll be forced to sell investment and lose control over that. Because if you need the money and the markets are down,
but you need the money, you'll have to sell and then you could potentially lose on your investment
or not sell at an optimal time. A regular GIC, I mean, it's not the best option for emergency funds
because the funds are locked in. You can try laddering the money, but if you need a large chunk of it quickly, obviously that can pose a problem
even if you ladder them. But the advantage with GIC and a few of these products here is that
they're CDIC insured. The next would be a cashable GIC. It can be a good option. However, usually the
rates will be a bit lower than a regular GIC,
and there's going to be a lock-in period between 30 and 90 days. So make sure you're aware of what the lock-in period is. There's also redeemable GICs, but the advantage is they can be redeemed
at any time, but you usually have a lower interest rate than even cashable GICs. But again, they are CDIC insured. Same thing for
cashable. The high interest savings account, I think those are a great option for liquidity.
You'll have access to the money anytime you want. And again, it'll be typically CDIC insured unless
it's with like a credit union or something like that, then they'll typically have insurance with
the province. So you just want to make sure what kind of insurance they are. But if it's with any federally regulated institution,
like the big banks, for example, then it'll be CDIC insured. The main downside here is that
there are higher interest options out there like regular GICs or money market ETFs or high savings ETFs. And which leads us to my next answer here.
So the money market ETF, high interest savings ETF, these will typically be very liquid and you
can buy this directly in your brokerage account, a TFSA, RRSP or taxable account. Any of the ones
I actually just mentioned, they could be bought in the TFSA, RRSP, or taxable account as well. You'll usually be able to have the funds in your bank account
within a few days. It's just doing the transaction and then transferring the funds from your
brokerage to your bank account. So that could take a couple of days, but they will offer some
of the highest interest you can get, and they are very liquid. The main downside here is that they are not CICD insured.
However, like a HSAV, PSA or cash, these are all ETF that I'm entering here. Well, they will have
deposit at Canadian banks. So the large Canadian banks, so the likelihood of the money not being
safe is not high, but it's also a non-zero probability. So that's something to
keep in mind. And I know, so I actually learned something doing these notes that I wasn't aware of.
Do you want to tell us a little bit more about those high interest savings ETF?
Yeah. So there was the big banks, I think this was probably like early last year,
they put in, or maybe early this year, they put in, or maybe early this year,
they put in, they kind of complained to the regulators that, I mean, in reality, they were
losing deposits to these HISA ETFs, which were yielding much more than, say, a money market fund
that they were offering. So they essentially complained and regulators, they came up with a rule. I can't remember exactly why they're forcing these funds to trim down on the interest that they're offering. It had something to do with the liquidity of the fund, but they're making them pretty much scale down the interest they offer. Right now, I think these ETFs are yielding around 5.4% net yield.
Yeah.
And I think they're making them go down to like 4.8% or 4.9%.
So they're not really, they've kind of leveled the playing field between like a money market fund.
I know just off the top of my head, I know like a ZMK from BMO yields like 7.8 or 7, or sorry, 4.7 or
4.8%. So I mean, they've pretty much nerfed these things to the point where, I mean, when you
consider that there's no CDIC insurance with it, it kind of makes you think, you know, over choosing
these over other options. Yeah, yeah. I mean, when I saw that, and then I like started doing some research.
And for those wondering, the regulator is OSFI.
So it's the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institution.
And their big mandate is to protect basically the financial system.
The big banks.
Yeah, which means that they don't care about you.
They care about the big banks.
That's essentially what it means. When I saw that, I mean, you saw how I was writing. I was definitely
using some colorful language. Definitely not impressed. But I mean, how surprising is that?
The regulator looking after the banks, not very here. And for me, I mean, from what I saw,
it's going to go into effect, I I believe January 31st 2024 so there's
still a couple of months before it this isn't to an effect and what I'll
probably do I have PSA dot to but they're all very similar in yield so
don't worry like you know you're probably looking at like five basis
points and difference between all the different ones so it's not very not very
significant but what I'll probably be doing is looking at money market funds that will offer a bit more or something like for my USD, like a bill for US Treasury bills, one to three months.
There's a couple of them.
There's not just that bill ETF, but that's the one I've held in the past.
And that one gives 5.3, 5.4, something like that in terms of yield.
And what I like is that it's backed by US
treasury bills. And those tend to not fluctuate all that much because they are really linked to
the short end of the yield curve, which is whatever rate is in place by the Fed in the US.
So I'm probably going to go to that for my US dollar, which is what I mainly save in. So for me,
it's just going to be that change. The downside is that you get the withholding tax in your TFSA
for that. But I'd rather do that versus having something not CDIC insured that yields about the
same anyways. Yeah. When the returns are pretty much the exact same, you just, you opt for the one with lower risk. And even though like there's virtually no risk with those funds,
risk does exist still.
So,
I mean,
there is,
um,
there is a Canadian,
there's Horizons has a,
has a US dollar treasury as well.
Zero to three month T-bill.
Okay.
You bill,
you bill.
You.
Oh,
really?
Okay. Yeah. Those just came out recently well not like
probably in the last six months but yeah they have uh they have a canadian treasury one and a
and a u.s treasury oh yeah so that that will definitely pique my interest because that
if it's listed in canada it's probably not going to get a withholding tax too.
Yeah, so it's trades that I can't remember what it yields.
It's over, I think it's over 5%. Yeah, yeah, probably.
Yeah, it's all T-bills.
I'm looking at it here.
Yeah, they came out with those T-bill ETFs not too long ago.
They're pretty unique.
Okay.
You know, I'll probably look at that.
And then speaking of risk, do you want to tell us what you do with
your emergency fund? Oh, yeah.
I saw those notes. It is not the most optimal strategy, but this is like you should have a
buffer for savings. But I have always stayed 100% invested. I've never had an emergency fund. I
simply have a line of credit that I would use in the event of emergency.
I haven't had to do it for over a decade. And I do this fully realizing at one point that I may
need to borrow. I mean, now that rates have gone up anywhere from 8% to 12% to finance any sort of
costs I need. But for how long I've done this and how long I've let probably that three to six month emergency fund compound, I don't really myself a little bit more out of my business. Whereas somebody with a regular job, you get a set paycheck. You can't exactly
go to your employer and be like, hey, my car broke down. I need a bit more money.
They'd probably tell you where to go. So it's a bit different of a situation with me.
But I think even like this, I don't even think moving forward that I would do this much now
just because of how much these ETFs and money market funds are paying.
Yeah.
I was going to ask that right now.
Would that make more sense to actually have an emergency fund and get 5%, 5.5% on it?
Yeah.
So like back when I was doing this, I mean, like GICs were paying next to nothing.
These high-stake ETFs didn't exist.
And even if they did exist, they would probably yield 1%. But like right now, thinking about it,
it does make perfect sense to, especially with how liquid these are, like you could put the
money in your brokerage, buy these funds. And if you need to sell them, you can sell them
that day and probably pull the money out in
a few days. So maybe a shift in strategy for me, maybe I will start. I mean, I did hold quite a bit
of these ETFs as I was building my house last year. I had a huge chunk of money in these ETFs
just because I was able to pretty much put my down payment inside of them and besides my deposit and
just earn quite a bit of interest. But yeah, it kind of sucks that they're getting nerfed, but
they still do provide pretty decent interest. Yeah. And I like what you said there. And I
think that's important for people to keep an eye on, keep an open mind to is that circumstances,
markets change, right? so you just mentioned right
now it probably would make a bit more sense to have it in a high interest savings account or a
high set ETF whatever we want to call them versus a couple years ago when interest rates were super
low and you probably had like a really good rate on your line of credit as well and your situation
is different and I think it's important also to just remind people, this is not financial advice,
right? We're just, you know, providing our perspective, but make sure you, you know,
you look at your whole situation as a whole. And our situation is much different. We're just trying
to, you know, give our perspective on things, but it's definitely not financial advice.
just trying to give our perspective on things, but it's definitely not financial advice.
Now, before the second part of the question, this is an interesting one. We always get people reaching out to us after we discuss this. So a TFSA versus an RSP versus a taxable account.
I'm personally, I've said it time and time again, I'm a big fan of maxing out my TFSA because of
the certainty in taxes that it provides.
It's because the money that goes in the TFSA has already been taxed.
Is that the optimal strategy?
Maybe, maybe not.
But there's a lot of guessing involved with an RRSP, especially if you're really far away from retirement.
What's going to be your income at retirement?
What will be the tax rates in effect?
What will be the different tax brackets,
not just the actual rate, but the different brackets that will be in place? There's a
provincial, there's a federal side as well. So there's a lot of things we don't know. And
that's always my pushback when people really preach RSPs for even like people that are high
earners right now and could potentially be earning a lot less
during retirement, I always say, look, you really don't know what the tax situation will look like.
And even for these people, they may have, especially if they're a long time before retirement,
their circumstances might be completely different than the projection. So it's always something to
keep in mind. The thing with an RSP though, is you can also be opportunistic. So it's always something to keep in mind. The thing with an RRSP though,
is you can also be opportunistic. So one thing that Braden and I have discussed is, you know,
if people have kids, for example, and they have money in RRSP and they have a year where their income is significantly lower because they take maternity or parental leave, you know, sometimes
it may make sense actually withdraw some of those RRSP and then you just put that money into a TFSA because
you're actually at a quite low tax bracket. So there are certain things that you can kind of
look at in terms of even life events happening and lowering your taxable income. And the taxable
account, I think it may make sense, but that's really in very specific situations the more i read about that
the more that's my conclusion on this oftentimes tfsa or rsp or combination of both will make a
bit more sense than a taxable account just because a taxable account money will go there if it's
already been taxed and then any gains will also be taxed it won't be taxed to the same level, but it'll still be taxed. Capital gains, essentially half of the gain that you make, you'll be taxed on half of it. So
something to keep in mind, you're also taxed on dividends and interest income if you have money
in a savings account, for example. The last thing I'll mention is for people who don't home a home,
an FHSC, so first home savings account, it's actually a really interesting account, even if you're not sure that you'll buy a home eventually.
Because essentially, you get a tax credit, just like an RRSP when you contribute, but any gains within it, you don't get taxed on it.
And when you withdraw money to buy a home, you also don't get taxed on it.
So it's essentially combining ATFSA and RRSP all at once. If you don't end up buying a home, then it converts into an RRSP.
So it's basically have and made contribution to an RRSP. So I think, you know, even the worst
case scenario for an FHSA is actually not a bad outcome. The worst case scenario being that you
don't end up buying a home.
So that's something to keep in mind.
The other thing, I know it'll be a bit late when people hear this,
but it may be worthwhile to open your FHSA account this year.
So 2023, even if you don't intend on contributing,
because then you'll be able to roll over the contribution room to next year.
So if you're really looking to contribute to that account, and more, I think it's $8,000 if I remember correctly. I think so, yeah.
Yeah. So more than the one year, $8,000. Well, you can roll over one year. So you may want to
open it already so that next year you have that extra $8,000 to contribute.
Yeah, it's a pretty unique account for sure. I mean, I wish it was
around when I was first looking to buy a home. I use the home buyers plan with the RRSP where
like I had employer matching. So I used to, I think I would put like 14% in and then the employer
would match the remaining four to kind of max out my RRSPs when I was younger. And then I use that money to, to pull out and contribute to a down payment.
But in terms of just like RSP versus TFSA,
like I've kind of,
I've kind of talked about this in the past and I,
I kind of got scolded,
I guess pretty hard because like,
there's so many different circumstances that make the RSPs more beneficial or worse.
I mean, for somebody who has,
like I have no idea how much income you'll have
in retirement from your pension,
from CPP, from anything else.
So like to state whether they'd be more beneficial or not,
it's just, it's impossible really.
And then like you said, circumstances change so much.
Like you have no idea what the tax
rates will be in retirement. I mean, especially the longer you have to get there, the more chance
there is for a fluctuation. You have no idea. If you're 20 right now and you pick up a job with a
really solid pension when you're 30 and that pension is going to be paying you in retirement,
it might make them less optimal. So, I mean,, the RSPs, it's a pretty tricky situation.
But I mean, I can't really see any situation where you wouldn't want to max your TFSA out
before putting money into a cash account. I mean, maybe there is some very rare circumstances.
Typically at the start of the year, I'll just make lump sum contributions to max out
my TFSA and my RSPs.
But if I could only pick one, it would probably be the TFSA before the RSP.
But I mean, again, there's just so many circumstances that make it impossible to highlight one or
the other.
Yeah, no, I think that's a good point.
Yeah, definitely if people
have pension income, that's going to have a big impact. You'll also want to have a good plan with
your RRSP because one of the things like a pretty easy strategy to do, but I think a lot of people
don't fully understand that is you can, for example, delay the start of your CPP, so Canada
Pension Plan, although Dan is in Alberta, so we'll see whether he has CPP or not down the line, but that's a topic for another day. So, you know, what you
can do is actually you delay CPP as long as you can. And then in the meantime, because you're not
getting that extra income, you actually draw faster from your RRSP. And then when CPP kicks
in, you either have no RRSP left or very little.
And then you can actually level out your income and making sure that you don't pay too much in taxes.
And in some cases, it's really important because if your income is too high, then you have OAS, old age security clawbacks on top of that.
Some people may make way too much money that it has no bearing on that.
They're already not going to get old age security.
But there's so many variables involved, again, with a pension. Also, whether it's a
defined benefit, defined contribution pension, how generous the pension is. There's all these
different things to take into account, whether someone has income properties.
Yeah, rentals, all that type of stuff.
Maybe you're a business owner and you still have that business into retirement.
There's all these different kind of variables.
And I think that's a good point is it's really important to look at all of that before making that decision.
Personally, it's that I like the certainty of the TFSA that I've already paid my taxes.
And I don't have to deal with that uncertainty.
But I do have some RSPs.
So that's just my point
of view here. As do-it-yourself investors, we want to keep our fees low. That's why Simone and I have
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for details. That is questtrade.com. Calling all DIY do-it-yourself investors, Blossom is an essential app for you. It has been blowing up with now more than 50,000 Canadians plus and
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People are just on there talking, sharing their investment ideas and using the analytics tools. So go ahead, blossom social in the app store and I'll see you
there. Now, the next question here. Good question. It's not a super long one. I think it's just,
I thought it was really good because there are terms that Kevin is asking. So it's a question
from Kevin, came in by email. So what's a proposed private
offering of a senior secured note? He was specifically talking about a recent announcement
from GFL, which is a Canadian, I think it's dual listed if I'm correct, right, Dan?
Yes, I'm pretty sure.
Yeah, dual listed. Yeah. So that's a pretty, it's a great question because I think a lot of people
will see these terms and sometimes they're like, what the hell does that mean? So a private offering. So I'll
break it down here. Private offering. That means that it's done in the private market instead of
public markets. So public market would be the public stock market or public bond market.
Senior secured notes. This is a type of debt or bonds that are issued. In this case, secured notes mean that the
debt issued is backed by hard assets. For example, a real estate investment truck could issue debt
that is backed by the actual real estate in case of a default. That's actually pretty common. We're
seeing that a lot in the US right now where there were debt that was issued from REITs and they're
actually handing the keys back to the lender because it was backed by the actual assets and
the value has gone down so much that they're just saying like, okay, just take the building.
We don't want it and the debt is done with. The senior part of it, it just means that it
takes precedence over other types of debt in case of a bankruptcy.
So essentially, the most senior debt will be paid before the less senior debt. And then once all the
debt is done, then you get preferred shares that will be paid out in terms of there's anything less
and then regular equity is the last on the list.
And usually they won't get much if it went bankrupt.
And doing a bit of research on this, it looks like the vast majority of secured debt is done in the private markets, whereas the public markets tend to be unsecured debt.
And unsecured means essentially the opposite, that it's not backed by any hard assets.
So that's what it means.
I think it's a great question.
And I think it's important for people when they see these terms that they're not quite sure, you know, just do a little bit of research or, you know, send us a question if you want.
And we'll look into it for you if we don't know the answer.
The next one here, you want to go ahead, give me a little bit of a break while I cough along the way?
Yeah, sure.
From Rita.
So yeah, this question from Rita, can you discuss transferring and investing the entire
yearly limit to the TFSA account in January versus investing the money month after month
over the whole year? So for me, if you would ever look at any sort of studies or that even if you lump summed a
pretty significant amount of money at absolute market peaks, you actually ended up not doing
too bad over the longterm versus somebody who dollar cost averaged. But the one thing that does
end up impacting a lump sum investor over somebody who does dollar cost average is the
emotional aspect of it certainly does come into play. So if you have a large sum of money and you
invest it all into the market and the market dips, you know, it crashes 20%, you know, in the next
few months that you buy it. I mean, all it would take is one quick, you know, panic sell to quickly erase all of the benefits that lump sum has over dollar cost
averaging over the long term. So for some, I would say maybe this is all just, I would say,
a personal decision. If you really don't like that market volatility and you feel like if you
were to just throw a ton of money in the market
at once and if the market were to dip, you would find yourself reacting to it, maybe you could
dollar cost average. But for me, I just lump sum all my purchases when I have the capital available.
Like for example, I said that typically at the start of the year, I just max out my TFSA, my RSP,
and I just invest them.
I'll pretty much do it all in one day. I don't really average into anything except for contributions
made moving forward. I do contribute weekly, every single week to my account. So in that regard,
I do dollar cost average. And the only other time I would ever do it is if the company was
reporting earnings. So if a company is really close to reporting earnings and I do want to buy, typically,
I will buy half before and half after just because earnings can be particularly volatile,
especially depending on the stocks that you're looking to buy.
No.
And I mean, I've seen those studies as well.
The one thing I'll kind of preface and just so people understand what you were saying,
when Dan talks about lump sum investing, essentially investing as soon as you have the money,
not timing the market and then putting it as a lump sum.
Because actually trying to time the market and waiting to time it will perform the worst of DCA and the lump sum when you first get it.
So I think that's a really important note because then people might think like,
oh, okay, I have my lump sum.
Then they wait three years to invest in.
Buying the dip is even worse than either of them.
I think the one, what was it?
There is some, I wish I could pull this chart up, but I did have,
I read an article
that stated somebody who waits versus somebody who just dollar cost average into the market,
somebody who waits for a 10% dip in prices before they buy has a 75% chance of underperforming
the person who just dollar cost average, say at the end of the month, just buys at the end of the month and
does that routinely. Yeah. And the couple of things I'll add here is it doesn't have to be
an all or nothing too, right? If you're scared of the potential volatility of doing a lump sum,
you could do half of it as a lump sum, for example. So if you have your $7,000 to invest, I think it's going to be next year's
limit. You do right away $3,500 and then you could do like $500 a week for the next seven
weeks after that to kind of smooth things out a little bit. And you have to keep in mind too,
the length of the DCA will also affect the outcome too. So if you have $100,000 and you do $10,000 for 10 weeks,
it's going to be a very different outcome than if you have $100 and you do $10,000 each month for 10
months. So I think that the length of how much the DCA is spread out will have a big impact too. So
I think obviously the studies are what
they are. The probabilities though, it will depend on the circumstances where the markets are at.
So typically the lump sum will perform slightly better. So 51, 52% in kind of the worst type of
outcomes for the lump sum investing up to 65% probability. But again, if you can play a little bit with it with something that
you're a bit more comfortable, even if it might not be the most optimal outcome mathematically,
if from a behavioral standpoint or a psychological standpoint, it helps you,
I think that's something to keep in mind. Yeah, definitely.
Okay, so now question from Nate. So Nate sent us an email. He's wondering if he's better off
buying USD and investing in US stock directly in his US account or doing it via his Canadian
account. He said the issue that he sees with trading US stocks in his Canadian account is
that the returns can be affected by exchange rates and that it can affect his decision.
So I was a little bit confused by that question. I think Dan as well. I think the way I see it is
I'm looking back at when I had my money with TD Direct Investing. And back then, I remember you
by default had one kind of Canadian account where you could buy Canadian or US stocks.
But whenever you bought, for example, if I went and bought Apple,
I would do so with Canadian funds.
It would convert the money by the US stocks.
And then I would see the value of my account kind of reflecting
what the Apple stock was worth in Canadian dollars.
So you'd see that fluctuate a bit more.
The issue with having just that one account is that as soon as
you sell that US stock, TD or whichever brokerage you're using that does it this way, will convert
it back to Canadian dollar and you'll pay exchange fees on that. So you'll pay forex exchange fees on
both sides of the transaction where it has, if you have a USD and Canadian account,
once you make that initial conversion, then you buy the US stock. And then when you sell it,
you actually sell it and then your money sits in US dollars. So I think to me, that's the most
optimal way. And again, I'm not sure if that was the intent of the question, but that's how I'm
interpreting it. By the end of the day, you have to get comfortable with exchange rates.
I would say every single company will be impacted by exchange rates, whether it's directly or indirectly.
Even if you have a company that just does business in Canada, they're going to do something.
Whether they buy certain products in US dollars from their suppliers,
whether there are certain consulting services and whatever it is, there is always going to be some kind of foreign exchange impact on the business. It might not be as visible, but it's just something
you have to get comfortable with. In the long term, the US dollar has typically done better
than the Canadian dollar, much better than the Canadian dollar. So that's something to keep in mind. But personally, I don't get really too phased
out by that. I try to have as much exposure to the US dollar as I can just because I want to
diversify away from the Canadian dollar. But that's my perspective. So that's about it for
my answer to that question. Anything you wanted to add, to add then i mean i guess for me like if i'm understanding the question right he's saying that like he would see
fluctuations in the returns because td would represent it in canadian dollars and i guess
all i would say is even if you were to convert this to us dollars and buy us stocks like those
returns would still be there you just wouldn't physically see them in your brokerage
account, right? You're always exposed. You'd have to do the conversion manually.
Yeah. So you wouldn't see it. So I mean, you wouldn't see it, but it's still there. So I mean,
I guess it's a bit of a mental thing at that point. But I mean, for me, I typically always
exchange my money to US dollars and buy US stocks inside of a US dollar account.
Especially when... That was one of the main things that caused me to switch to
Wealthsimple is when they came up with the US dollar accounts. Because before you had to buy,
just like this person said, you had to buy US stocks in your Canadian account.
And then when you sold them, it auto-converted it back, which is not optimal at all.
Yeah.
But...
Like I was explaining with TD base.
Yeah.
Yeah.
So, yeah.
And with Questrate, it's nice because it's automatically segregated.
Yeah.
So, whenever you convert to USD, you buy USD, you sell, it stays in USD unless you physically
do the conversion again.
And I think personally, that's the optimal way
because most people will do a decent amount of investing in the US market.
So I think that's the best way to do it.
Yeah. And they're one of the only brokerages that does that.
So like most places, you need to open up a Canadian account and a US dollar account.
Whereas Questrade is all, it's like one account.
I seem to remember that when I was there.
You didn't have a Canadian RRSP and a US RRSP.
You just had one and they kind of swapped it back and forth on the currency.
Yeah, you can view like both, like the total value in CAD, total value in USD.
But at the end of the day, they're still your USD is your USD, your CAD is your CAD.
Yeah.
Yeah. We'll move on to the next question because we have a few, two more. So I think we'll be good
to finish them all. So I'll read the next one and I'll let you answer and then I might comment a
little bit. So question from Blossom here. I have a question regarding the impact of mortgage
defaults can have on banks starting next year. A lot of those mortgages
are covered by default insurance required for buyers with less than 20%. So would this default
risk not transfer to the insurance companies and not really impact the banks as they are secured?
So Dan, I'll let you take that one. Yeah, so this was actually, it was actually one of the
best questions on there. And it's a really valid question. And there's a lot of misconceptions on that mortgage insurance. And because it's,
you know, I hear it a lot that, you know, a lot of these mortgages are covered,
but it's actually the reverse. The majority of mortgages are uninsured, not insured. So
quick numbers from a few of the banks, 74% of Scotia's mortgage portfolio is
uninsured. 82.5% of Royal Banks is uninsured and around 80% of TDs is uninsured. So one of the
areas where it does get interesting is during the big drawdown in alternative lenders in 2022,
like Equitable Bank, GoEasy, Home Capital, I think too. And they ended up getting acquired,
I think. I wanted to see how much of Equitable Bank's loan book is insured. So I emailed their IR and they came back with a number and it was just under 50%. So I think it was 49.5.
So this is significantly higher than any of the major Canadian banks. And I would imagine it's because Equitable Bank,
they're kind of a B lender. So a lot of the people that don't get approved by the major institutions end up going to something like Equitable Bank. And in that situation, they're
probably going to have a lot less down. But the one thing that you need to note about the
uninsured mortgages is they have a much lower loan to value. So in
the simplest explanation possible, if you buy a million dollar house and put 35% down, $350,000
down, you have a loan to value of 65%. So you have a $650,000 mortgage on a $1 million home.
So the higher the loan to value, the much riskier for the banks for a few reasons. If you buy a house and you have 5% down, your loan to value would be 95%. And if real estate
prices fall even a little bit, you could end up with a loan to value above 100%. So if you end up
defaulting, there's a chance that the bank couldn't even make their initial capital back on
the home in the
event of a sale. And that's where the mortgage insurance does come in. And this is why you'll
see higher loan to values at alt lenders. So the other data I pulled is RBC and Scotia.
Their average LTVs are in the 49% to 50% range, whereas Equitable Bank sits at around 62%.
range, whereas Equitable Bank sits at around 62%. But the one thing to note is there is,
and this is coming from a person who has decent exposure to Canadian banks. I think around 10% of my portfolio, maybe even 13%, including Equitable, is in Canadian banks. There's no
sugarcoating that these banks do have considerable risk when it comes to their mortgage portfolios. So you're talking Scotia has around a $290 billion mortgage portfolio and 214
of it is uninsured. So this is ultimately the risk banks take on. Every bank takes this risk.
It's their job to be able to mitigate these risks through proper lending. And although the
situation looks a bit iffy here in
Canada, I don't really foresee some cataclysmic failure in the banking system like a lot of people
like doomsdayers are talking about, but I think they definitely might struggle. There's almost
a guarantee there's going to be a hit to earnings, but most of the mortgages that these banks hold,
the uninsured portions of them are very high quality mortgages that these banks hold, the uninsured portions of them are like very high quality mortgages.
Yeah, no, exactly.
I think that was a fantastic breakdown.
And for just wanted to add a little bit of perspective here in terms of default insurance.
I had the I just wanted to specify.
So there's three main default insurers in Canada.
There is CMHE.
So the Canadian Mortgage Housing Corporation,
Sagan, and then Canada Guarantee. So these are the three main. So just if people are wondering.
And another thing is, I don't know if it's the same thing with Sagan and Canada Guarantee,
but I know CMHC, they'll only insure homes that are a million or less, right?
So they are less than a million. Yeah. So that's something else to keep in mind is some
banks may get more exposure to GTA or greater Vancouver area where you get a shoebox for a
million dollars. I kid a little bit, but not really. Not really.
You don't go very far with a million dollars in those markets. And I think that's another
important point to make. But I thought it was
a really good question. Definitely agree with you there. Nothing more to add.
Yeah. They might have to change their rules on that lending limit now that
prices have gone bonkers. Yeah, exactly. I mean, I'm sure they will probably change them eventually.
And did you mention that? I'm sorry if I missed it. I think you need to get insurance if you're under 20% down, right?
Yeah, that's right.
And the insurance like depends.
So if you have 5% down, it's more.
And if you have 10%, it's less.
15%, it's less.
And the weird thing, like it's such a weird element because there's sometimes like when I was buying a home in 2019, I had more than 20% down.
But as soon as I put more than 20%
down, my mortgage rate went up to the point where buying the... Actually reducing my down payment
so that the mortgage was insured with the bank. Because you have to think of the risks that that
takes away from the bank. So they're obviously willing to offer you a better rate. So we actually
scaled down our down payment so that it was less.
Okay.
The insurance must have been what you put like 18 or 19% down.
Yeah, exactly.
Instead of 20.
Yeah.
Because for people, that's something to keep in mind because it is quite noticeable.
If you look at something like a site like YY thing.
Is that the correct name?
What's that?
I missed that.
I was coughing.
Yeah. Oh, yeah. Yeah. I know what you that i missed that i was coughing yeah oh yeah yeah
i know what you're talking about yeah or yeah wow and so you oh yeah something like that so you can
compare different rates and i think it's important for people to realize if you're looking at mortgage
insurance especially if you're looking at like five ten percent down you may think you have a
like really good rate but then if you factor in the insurance,
your true rate will be much higher than that. So something to keep in mind because I think a lot of
people get blinded by the rate that they get and then they kind of forget that mortgage insurance
piece. And then now I guess we've talked enough about this one. The last question again from
Blossom. Is there a moment you'd consider holding fixed income
versus all equity? If so, what would you go for? So I'll definitely let you lead on this one,
but I also have some thoughts. It may be similar to you, but I think it's a good question. But also
I think fixed income is very wide ranging. So they're not all created equal. So I'll just say that before I let you
answer. So I kind of, yeah, I kind of like centered my answers around just bonds pretty
much. I didn't go like full because yeah, fixed income can be a wide variety of things. And I
think in terms of bonds, there is kind of, there's an attractive element that we haven't witnessed in
quite some time. I think this has been one of the roughest points for bonds almost in history.
I think like the 60-40 portfolio in, what was it, 2021, it was like the worst returns
for that portfolio in forever.
And that's mainly due to the fact that bonds are inversely related to interest rates.
So when interest rates go up, bond prices will go down and vice versa.
interest rates. So when interest rates go up, bond prices will go down and vice versa.
And that's mostly because they pay a static coupon. But for a lot of people, they kind of confuse the coupon on a bond from the yield on a bond. So
a bond that was issued during the pandemic at rock bottom rates will have witnessed its price
drop once rates started going up and that's you know due
to pretty much lower demand on that bond like who would buy a you know pandemic bond that's
yielding one or two percent when right now they can you know they can buy a new one that's yielding
much more so the price has to drop in order to raise the yield so the i have an answer for you
yeah who would buy you have to ask that question to silicon
valley bank yeah they'll let you know no one will buy those no one will buy those at par
valley yeah and that ended up yeah so look what happened to them that ended up actually like
putting that bank under so i mean the prices have to drop so that the yields rise. So in that effect, yeah, that bank took so much in losses because of that.
So the opposite is also true in the fact that when rates start to come down, bonds issued now, their demand will go up because they have higher coupon rates, right?
So you might see an increase in bond prices if rates were to go
down. And then if you're holding individual bonds held to maturity, depending on the price you pay
for your bond, you'll either have a capital gain or a capital loss. But when you look to something
like a bond ETF, they provide really broad exposure in a single click. And they pretty
much have the highest level of liquidity. You do get liquidity with a bond, but with an ETF, most investors don't even know how to buy
individual bonds. So like these ETFs, they'll fluctuate in price, go up and down. They've had
a pretty rough couple of years, but now it's hard to see how there wouldn't be positive price action
on these if interest rates were to come down.
And if they come down in a big way next year, or say 2024, 2025, I mean, you could see some
recovery and some of these bond funds that have really, really struggled over the last long time
now that rates have been low, especially in the pandemic. But prior to the pandemic, prior till
now, I have never even considered holding any sort of fixed income. But I mean, it does look more
attractive now than it ever has, that's for sure. And in terms of fixed income, I'm strictly talking
about just bonds here. Yeah. Yeah. And I think one thing I'll kind of mention and add to what
Dan was saying is, yes, totally true what he said. With interest rates come down, then the value of the bonds that were issued at higher rates
will definitely go up because they're inverted.
But you have to keep in mind to not be so focused on what the central banks do, because
the longer the bonds, the less they are impacted by the interest rates that are in effect by
the central banks, because those rates are the short end of the curve. So the five and 10 year bonds or 30 years in the US, those are longer end of
the curve. So those will be dictated what the market is pricing them at. And the market will
dictate what kind of the yield is for those bonds. So I think that's really important for people to
remember because people might be saying, oh, I think the Bank of Canada will be or the US will be lowering rates by 150 basis point next year. Even if they are,
it may not, you know, I'm sure it will have some impact on the longer end of the curve,
but it will not be of the same proportion. So I think that's really important for people to
understand. For me, I mean, I think it's actually quite
attractive to have fixed income, but the shorter end of the curve. So I think it's just really
tricky. I know David Rosenberg from Rosenberg Research has been doing the rounds, like he's
been doing articles, I think in the Globe and Now. I've listened to a couple of podcasts from him,
who's basically bullish longer term bonds bonds because he thinks that they still have
some appreciation, essentially saying that the 5, 10 and longer will be going down in yield.
So the existing ones will actually be going up in value. So that's the trade he's preaching.
I'm like you, I'm not super interested in that. But like I've said earlier in this podcast,
I'm definitely interested in the
one to three month treasury bills and stuff like that because it's yielding five and a half percent.
That's still fixed income. And right now I have about 12, 13 percent in cash and cash equivalents.
And most of it is in these types of products because it's based on essentially what the
rates are right now from the
central bank, specifically the US Fed. And I'm happy to be collecting 5.5% when I'm not 100%
sure on what I want to invest. So to have some dry powder, more than happy collecting 5.5%
on some very low risk instruments. But again, the longer you go on the curve,
the more there is risk because then there's going to be some more fluctuation. Yeah.
Yeah, exactly. I mean, the longer the time to maturity on the bond, the more risk you
expose yourself to in terms of interest rate risk, inflation risk, stuff like that. But
like you said, on the shorter end, it definitely, they're pretty attractive right now. Like you said,
what did five plus percent on a treasury bill? Yeah, yeah, exactly. And that's why typically too, the longer you go
out on the yield curve, the more you'll get in terms of yield. Right now, we're in one of those
very rare circumstances where the yield is higher on the shorter end of the curve versus the longer
end. That's why when people talk about yield
curve inversion, that's what it is. Typically, it's going to be the opposite. So you're going
to get less yield because it's in the near future. And the longer you go, the more risk there is. So
the more premium there is, and therefore the yield is higher. So we're still inverted. We've
been for quite some time since I think it's been a couple of years now. 2022 maybe?
Yeah.
Yeah.
The degree of the inversion has varied quite a bit.
Obviously, a couple of months ago, it was getting very close, but now it's even more inverted.
And we won't go into, you know, I think you can get some pretty deep macroeconomic analysis there.
We won't get into that because we're running long.
macroeconomic analysis there. We won't get into that because we're running long, but we do thank everyone that sent us a question and bared with us with, you know, me talking from my
nose, Dan coughing. Hopefully we were able to remove most of those from the audio. We'll have
to see if my, our co-op student is able to work her magic and remove most of those, but definitely
enjoy that. Give us some feedback on Twitter or send us an email. You can go on the Canadian Investor Podcast on our website and just
give us some feedback. Send us a quick email and let us know if you really like these kind of
mailbag episodes. Maybe we'll do them a bit more often. We used to do them more, but then we stopped
for a little bit. And if there's a lot of people like them, we might do some more in the near future.
Before we let you go, Dan, do you want to sign us off since I did a lot of talking in the beginning?
Yeah. So thanks for listening, everybody. You can follow me on Twitter at StockTrades underscore CA.
We publish a ton of content on Stocktrades.ca. We've actually
been going on like a big GIC binge as of late. So we put out like 10 or 12 different articles on,
you know, different types of GICs, the best rates, things like that. So you can visit us there. And
Simon, I guess I'll let you do the share and review. Yeah, definitely. So if you haven't done so, give us a five-star rating on Spotify or give us a nice review
on Apple Podcasts.
The holidays are coming up.
So you'll hear this probably a week or so before the holidays.
So if investing comes up at the dinner table during Christmas dinner or whatever holidays
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That's always appreciated.
You can follow us at at CDN underscore investing on Twitter slash X and you can follow me at Fiat
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appreciate all the support and we will see you shortly with another episode. Thanks everyone for listening.