The Canadian Investor - Secular trends that provide long-term investing opportunities
Episode Date: July 27, 2020In this episode we talk about trends that have significant tailwinds now and in the future. These trends can represent some interesting investing opportunities for those who have a long-term investing... strategy. As you’ll see, some of these trends are extremely long-term and some of us might not even live to see their end-game. We hope that you enjoy the episode!Tickers of stocks discussed : V, MA, MELI, PYPL, SQ, TDOC, AMZN, AAPL, ISRG, ILMN, BMY, CRSP, NVTA, ATVI, TCEHY, SE, BKNG, LYV, DIS, SPCE, HEXO.TO, WEED.TO, APHA.TO, ACB.TO. CSU.TO, OTEX.TO, ENGH.TO, ROP, LMT--- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/the-canadian-investor/messageSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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The Canadian Investor Pod. What is up?
I'm Braden Dennis, joined by my co-host Simon Belanger.
What's up, Simon?
I'm doing well. Just excited to talk about what we're going to talk about today.
So before we get into what I think is really really cool topic today uh calling you calling
roy one of our listeners thank you man this was kind of inspired by what you mentioned but
we doing our own little take on this so before we get into what that is let's talk about the
canadian investor pod index because we haven't given
you guys an update since we introduced it. So since my backtest software only works up to the
latest month, I'm going to provide performance up till July 1st. But every month, I'm going to give
you some new performance. So drum roll, please. The T tci index which is 25 companies equally weighted
is up a whopping 15.16 percent in 2020 and the s&p is actually down three percent as of july 1st
so that is 25 companies equally weighted at four percent up 15 there's some good good names
in here notable performance in june by encho systems shopify bombardier rec products ticker
d o o up 21 and an unbelievable 43% return for Spotify,
not to be confused with Shopify.
Simon, I don't know,
just saying three of those four top performers
were my three picks for the index.
I'm patting myself on the back right now.
Yeah, we have to remember, though,
we're investing for the long term,
so that's my excuse.
Hey, Chewy's up in a major way just it just wasn't a
wasn't a big june pick but uh wow i am a happy shareholder of spotify uh you know another easy
30 here in july as well i get a notification that it's hitting all time highs every single day for, I think,
two out of three days for four or five months now. So it's a good time to be an investor in Spotify.
So Simon, this is a good segue because I think Spotify is a very good candidate of what we're
talking about. So finding hidden compounders is great. I mean, that's kind
of the name of the game, right? But sometimes there's obvious long-term compounders that exist
out there and are hiding in plain sight. These companies are obviously leaders in what we are calling large global secular growth trends, which is the name of the game of this episode.
Large global secular growth trends.
And within that global secular growth, I'm trying to find capital light businesses at fair or undervalued opportunities.
businesses at fair or undervalued opportunities. So Simon and I both picked a couple of industries and a couple of secular growth trends that we think have massive opportunity to be disruptors
and are not necessarily those hidden compounders that a lot of people are looking for. So
I will go first because these are definition of companies
that I think of just hiding in plain sight. Payments is a global secular growth trend for me
in a major way. Visa and MasterCard, my largest holdings in my own portfolio.
And I've talked, if you haven't heard my pitches on Visa and MasterCard, maybe 10 episodes back, go ahead and listen to exactly why I think these two companies are going to be winners for decades to come.
So with COVID-19, it sped up a lot of that digital payment disruption of maybe five years in the matter of three months.
So this is a global trend that is just obviously happening as we move to a cashless society.
This is already happening in a major, major way in developed markets with still lots of organic growth there
but also think about how much across the globe it is still primarily a cash-based world
in emerging markets in frontier markets and even a lot of of europe and south america
they are primarily a lot of it is still cash-based transactions so
that's going to shift in a major way again this is an obvious global secular trend that i think
visa and mastercard are going to benefit in a major major way super capital light free cash
flow yields that are just unbelievable.
Incredible margins.
So these are just companies that I think are huge, huge tailwinds at their back over the next few decades.
And the numbers on their income statements just speak for themselves.
What is one that you're seeing, Simon, that's just a huge global secular growth trend?
Yeah, And well,
just before I go to mine, a few other ideas for people for the payment space. So there's also Square, PayPal, StoneCo, MercadoLibre with MercadoPago. So there's other types of companies
as well that you can get a play on the payment processing or payment system, digital payments.
I know I own Square, paypal as well they're
entering a bit more as well into the crypto space so those are also companies that would allow you
to get exposure to that but also get exposure to other type of things such as crypto but mercato
libre obviously e-commerce along with the payment system so there's a bunch of companies that you can look into to get to have a piece of that global trend i like that you mentioned that
there's a lot of disruptors in fintech those companies you're mentioning in my opinion they
still all operate on the rails that visa and master current have set up so i just think that
they are kind of that obvious winner on all
of this while the rest of the industry kind of innovates for them. But again, those companies
have been incredible performers that you've mentioned as well. So it's worth mentioning.
Yeah, exactly. And I've used kind of a basket approach for them. So I do own Visa, MasterCard,
PayPal, Square. So I'm kind of using a basket approach, but I agree with you for
MasterCard and Visa there. So for my major health trend, well, major trend globally, so I kind of
spoil the brains right there. So the future of healthcare. So I kind of divided that into
two main aspects that I see as being big global trends going forward the next 5, 10, 20,
30, 50, 100 years going forward. So first of all, there's healthcare disruptors. So one of the
things with the healthcare system, it's not very efficient. A lot of things, I mean, obviously,
now we're kind of noticing a bit more with the pandemic. But I know I've talked about Teladoc
before. But, you know, just imagine if I've talked about Teladoc before, but,
you know, just imagine if you're someone living in a rural area where it's a small town, you have
internet, but you're maybe an hour drive, an hour and a half drive away to access like a hospital
and doctors. So that's really like something to me that's making healthcare a lot more efficient.
Another company to think about is Amazon.
So Amazon purchased a few years ago PillPack.
So PillPack is a medication delivery.
Basically, they deliver your medication directly to your door on a monthly basis.
They'll work directly with the doctor and insurance companies and automatically refill your prescription and send them to your door.
So already, you know,
that's to me a lot more efficient than going to the pharmacy. Another company in terms of disruptor,
it's not a small company, Apple. So Apple has been investing a lot in Apple Health.
You can just type Apple Healthcare and you'll get their website and you'll see what they're doing
in terms of the future of
healthcare. So whether that's the Apple Watch and the information that you can relate to your
physician and all the data they collect, there's a strong play with Apple as well. The last one in
the disruptors, I'm not sure if you're familiar with that one, Brayden, but it's Intuitive Surgical.
So Intuitive Surgical, they have their da vinci systems and they
actually sell those to hospitals to do surgeries and they're done by a robot basically that's
supervised by a physician and they do have reoccurring revenues as well so once they get
that machine into the hospital there's certain equipment that the hospital has to purchase on a regular basis so it gives them their reoccurring revenue dude that was my like oh and this company as well for for me
to add to your list there i was so ready to say intuitive surgical um what an incredible business
model super strong moat and major major first mover advantage in what is a massive shift in healthcare and how surgeries are performed.
They have a competitor that's like three or four years behind them.
This new project, the new DaVinci that they're working on is really, really cool.
And it's just a really cool company too. The tech working on is really, really cool. And it's just a really cool company too.
The tech is really, really, really cool.
That company, we could do an entire episode on Intuitive Surgical.
Definitely not cheap, but deserves the premium.
Huge wide moat and the margins are nuts.
I like that you brought up that they have a lot of recurring revenue because yeah, once they get that robot in the hospital,
it is a cash cow for many, many years to come.
So that product life cycle is evergreen for sure.
Yeah, exactly.
And when the doctors,
those machines are not cheap to begin with.
And then when the physicians or the doctors,
the surgeons are trained on that type of machine, it's very sticky, just like I mentioned. As do-it-yourself investors, we want
to keep our fees low. That's why Simone and I have been using Questrade as our online broker
for so many years now. Questrade is Canada's number one rated online broker by MoneySense. And with them, you can buy
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That is questtrade.com. go on there, I am shocked. The engagement is amazing. This is a really vibrant community that they're building. And people share their portfolios, their trades, their investment ideas in real time.
And it's all built on the concept of transparency because brokerage accounts are linked. And then
once you link your brokerage account, you can get in-depth portfolio insights, track your dividends,
and there's other stuff like learning Duolingo style education lessons
that are completely free. You can search up Blossom Social in the app store and join the
community today. I'm on there. I encourage you go on there and follow me, search me up.
Some of the YouTubers and influencers and podcasters that you might know, I bet you
they're already on there. People are just on there talking, sharing their investment ideas
and using the analytics tools. So go ahead, Blossom Social in the app store and I'll see on there. People are just on there talking, sharing their investment ideas and using the analytics tools. So go ahead, blossom social in the app store and I'll see you there.
So the next kind of, again, in the future of healthcare is gene sequencing. And I apologize
in advance to if we have some doctors or researchers listening to our podcast, this is
just a super high level. So gene sequencing companies,
so typically they'll be kind of grouped into three buckets. So there's gene sequencing companies,
so these companies tend to market system to researchers. An example of that would be Illumina,
that's publicly traded. I don't know too much about this company, so definitely do
your research. And all the companies I'll be mentioning with a couple of exceptions are
definitely, they're high risk to put likely. So make sure you keep that in mind when you do your
research. Drug developers related to gene sequencing. So those are companies using
discoveries that enable the gene sequences to
overcome genetic mutations, contributing to like a specific disease. So these companies, they really,
they can basically create drugs based on, you know, what your DNA is called, what basically
from your DNA is causing certain disease. So that's an interesting play. Two
companies that are publicly listed that have, you know, a hand in that is Bristol-Myers Squibb.
They actually pay a dividend. So they're a fairly large company. So they're not as risky as the next
one I'll mention. The next one is CRISPR Therapeutics. But there's a bunch of other
companies. These are just examples. And the
final segment of that is gene screening companies. So those are companies that provide genetic
screening services to drug developers, doctors, patient to inform the drug development and
treatment decision for specific patients, depending on what, you know, their DNA sequencing says.
patients depending on what you know their DNA sequencing says so an example would be in invidia I'm gonna put it in the show notes I'm not gonna try to say it but all these for the
most part these companies they're they're still in their infancy so they're going to be spending a
lot of money and a lot of them might not pan out so keep that in mind if you're investing in this
type of uh this these types of companies but i do see a future where gene sequencing will be quite
important simon i've heard a lot of words that uh your french canadian accent uh I just, I love it. But genetic, I think is my new favorite one. The way
you said genetic. So French Canadian, I love it. So for myself, another long term growth trend that
is just, you know, again, a lot of tailwinds with COVID, video games. So video games is growing at a super, super fast clip,
not only locally, but worldwide. And worldwide, we're seeing a huge growth in mobile gaming.
You know, the barriers of entry are way lower in some of these emerging markets than console
gaming. And so you're seeing a lot of growth in in mobile gaming and the numbers kind
of speak for itself as by far the fastest growing in terms of revenue for a lot of these companies
so companies that come to mind right now activision blizzard tencent and c limited so activision
blizzard moving a lot of their big games you you know, they have the classic Call of Duty. They own Candy Crush. You're seeing them take a lot of their big winners on console and move them over to mobile versions as well and become instant cash cows.
Tencent, being the big Chinese company that does everything, obviously has a large gaming platform as well. And then the last one I mentioned was Sea Limited, which has been on a tear, to say the least.
It's kind of like Tencent, but for the rest of Southeast Asia.
They do payments, e-commerce, and gaming.
Southeast Asia. They do payments, e-commerce and gaming. Their G arena platform has a ridiculous amount of daily active users, over 400 million daily active users. It's just really, really
impressive. So I look at gaming and I think, is that is that the growth trend is this mobile gaming is that the
growth trend or will we see a big pickup in console gaming as some of these developed nations go
through you know modernization that's that's really to be seen and then if they can be winners as well in the esports world, which is another one of my big trends, which is experiential consumerism, highly contrarian right now.
I think a lot of people, especially the younger generation, are more interested in experiences than things.
That's a very obvious growth trend right now and we're seeing the
airline industry benefit from that pre-covid so again another contrarian as can be but experiential
consumerism you're going to be able to pick up definitely some really high quality companies
on the cheap right now during covid. Make sure they have lots of cash
on their balance sheet right now. Things that come to mind are Booking Holdings and Live Nation.
Again, these are companies that have been massively benefiting. Great companies,
Asset Light Technology. These were companies that were highly benefiting from that trend.
companies that were highly benefiting from from that trend obviously covid has changed the narrative narrative on these companies lately and have been horrible performers but something to consider
as we get over covid19 which we will we will get over covid19 uh cases right now globally
and south of the border tell a different story but at the end of the day that
trend is not going away and i think that there's going to be some starved uh you know demand for
these kinds of things so live nation is a company that i thank god did not purchase pre-pandemic but
definitely wanted to the owner of ticket master of course, super, super good business. So we'll see as we get out of this environment, if those really, really high quality experiential consumerism companies start to pick up again.
pandemic and I'm going to use a well-known Canadian company, Quebec Company, that filed for bankruptcy, but I think they found some buyers. I saw the article a few weeks ago.
So make sure that they can survive. I'm not familiar with all their balance sheets. One
other I would add to what you just said, I do like Expedia because they have vrbo so it gives you a play on that uh you know
vacation rental from the owners as well which uh you know kind of obviously a competitor to airbnb
yeah good point uh there's a like booking holdings for instance very very similar to
expedia they have lots of different brands under the umbrella, all in that travel experience type industry.
Again, this is definitely very contrarian right now.
And revenues have disintegrated during the pandemic.
So something to consider maybe post lockdowns.
Very, very hard to time this.
very very hard to time this so if you were to enter a position on the cheap now i would definitely be dollar cost averaging it and not throwing it in all at once but again these are very very good
companies and there is a recovery in some way uh to those stories who knows when it'll happen so
it's just definitely something to consider. Actually, just thinking about it,
a company that would touch both video games and entertainment
and the experience part would be Disney.
I wouldn't be a shareholder of Disney these days.
Again, you're right.
And Disney has been a benefit like they have massively benefited from
all three of those trends in the last decade being a disney shareholder has been great up until a few
months ago so you're you're right uh again a company that is definitely well capitalized like Disney will get through this and has other
ways to get through this. But again, it does scare me a little bit that even the Orlando
locations are open right now. Yeah. And for anyone investing in those type of businesses,
whether it's the, you know, obviously tourism industry right now, you know, like Braden said,
probably better off dollar cost averaging
and also it's probably not for the faint of heart like it's it's probably going to be a rocky ride
totally um hit us with a trend yeah so the next trend that i've selected so it's a marijuana
industry um so cannabis uh for the most part, the Canadian companies, I would be very reluctant
to invest in them right now. But I think long term, and especially as we see more and more
states legalizing in the US, especially as a lot of states are probably looking to legalize to get
that extra revenue because they've lost so much money because of COVID-19. So I can really
see in the next few years, a lot of US individual states legalizing. And then I think it's just a
matter of time for marijuana to be legalized on a federal level in the US. And I think we're going
to see a big legalization movement the next 10 years worldwide. That's my personal view. I could
be completely wrong on that 10 years from now. But again, it's a big market. The estimates are
all over the place in terms of what the actual global market would be. I've seen some estimates
of around $100 billion, $120 billion 10 years from now. Again, take that with a grain of salt,
because a lot of people
were saying that the canadian market would be a lot bigger than it is that we're seeing that it
is right now in terms of company obviously there's the usual so canopy aurora exo for quebec there's
afria those are kind of the big ones in Canada. Although I would definitely wait probably a year
or two just because there's going to be more consolidation in this space. And we're going to
see who the winners are. And there's most likely going to be some companies in the next couple
years that will become profitable. And they're probably going to be able to make some pretty
good acquisition because a lot of these companies are struggling.
They have a lot of debt, so they might be able to buy those assets, pennies on the dollars.
So that's something to keep in mind, but I definitely see that in terms of the long-term trend
as an area that has a lot of opportunities.
It's an industry that is very obviously growing very fast
again it dabbles a lot with legalized with legislations which i don't love my only problem
with buying marijuana names is i don't understand any brand loyalty from certain growers and distributors. I can't
get my mind around how that works. They rolled it out here. And what I'm used to seeing in Ontario
is it's kind of white labeled with all kinds of warnings and it may, it will have whoever grew it on there,
but I don't see any true brand loyalty between one strain of marijuana versus the next.
And for me, I think that's a real challenge for the industry, uh, as a whole, you know, in,
in, uh, alcohol branding is everything. It's absolutely everything. And that's why you
see so many marketing dollars get thrown in there. For a lot of these weed growers,
I just don't understand any brand loyalty. And it's very, very difficult for them to establish
it when you buy a product that's completely white labeled. So I'm interested to see how that shakes out
in other jurisdictions as legalization happens,
because I think it will happen,
not just here in Canada,
but across most of the world eventually.
Again, how long that takes, I don't know.
I am concerned about brand loyalty though, Simon.
Yeah, and I mean, I'm not sure if the growers
will necessarily be the growers are necessarily the,
will necessarily be the best investments per se, but I can see some, uh, some company that
specialize in premium marijuana. So whether the THC content is much higher, whether it's cured
a certain way, whether it's, uh, you know, all organic, I think we're going to see an evolution
of that and probably a bit more like alcohol,
where a certain brand might be associated with more of a premium product.
But you have to keep in mind, too, the legalization happened extremely quickly.
The reason these companies are laying off a lot of people right now is because they've
ramped up way too much capacity for what the demand is.
So I think there's a lot that's going to shake up in that industry.
That's also why I think if you give it a year or two,
I think there's going to be a lot of change,
and we'll see which companies kind of emerge as the winner,
whether it's the actual producers or the ones that process it
into certain types of edibles or some types of other
sprays or whatever it is. But I think it's definitely something I would keep an eye on.
I think long term, there's a good trend there. As do it yourself investors, we want to keep our
fees low. That's why Simone and I have been using Questrade as our online broker for so many years
now. Questrade is Canada's number one our online broker for so many years now.
Questrade is Canada's number one rated online broker by MoneySense.
And with them, you can buy all North American ETFs,
not just a few select ones, all commission free,
so that you can choose the ETFs that you want.
And they charge no annual RRSP or TFSA account fees.
They have an award-winning customer service team with real people that are ready to help if you have questions along the way. As a customer myself,
I've been impressed with Questrade's customer service. Whenever I call or email, every support
rep is very knowledgeable and they get exactly what I need done quickly. Switch for free today
and keep more of your money. Visit questrade.com for details. That is questrade.com.
Calling all DIY, do-it-yourself investors. Blossom is an essential app for you. It has been blowing
up with now more than 50,000 Canadians plus and growing who are using the app. Every time I go on there,
I am shocked. The engagement is amazing. This is a really vibrant community that they're building.
And people share their portfolios, their trades, their investment ideas in real time.
And it's all built on the concept of transparency because brokerage accounts are linked. And then
once you link your brokerage account, you can get in-depth portfolio insights,
track your dividends, and there's other stuff like learning Duolingo style education lessons that are completely free. You can search up Blossom Social in the app store and join the
community today. I'm on there. I encourage you go on there and follow me, search me up.
Some of the YouTubers and influencers and podcasters that you might know, I bet you they're already on there. People are just on there talking, sharing their investment
ideas and using the analytics tools. So go ahead, blossom social in the app store and I'll see you
there. There is a good trend there. And I wonder if now at this point, at this this price a lot of marijuana stocks it feels like after the tech boom
after the tech bubble it feels like really low bargain prices because the marijuana hype
up to legalization in october of 2018 prices were out of control. Aurora Cannabis and Canopy Growth Corp trading at over 200 times sales in those fall months of 2018.
And then obviously that bubble popped pretty quick.
I wonder if it's after tech boom buying some of those really high quality internet companies back then, which have been incredible incredible compounders i wonder if that's where
we sit right now who's to say my next big trend that i'm seeing is software as a service of course
but i'm not just going to go here and say software as a service is a great trend because that's that's
that's a little too obvious what i I think is really, really important is that
there's this new massive amount of companies, smaller niche business to business software as
a service companies that you would have never heard of that are profitable on day one because
of how good this model is. They're able to find product market fit immediately
and lock down big, big B2B clients
and provide a ton of value
in one little niche vertical of that company's value chain
and be part of that technology stack that these companies use.
And they're very, very niche, and there's tons of them out there.
The addressable market for these B2B SaaS companies,
smaller niche B2B SaaS companies is huge.
So how does this affect you as an investment?
Well, there's a lot of really, really big Bookshare Hathaway type holding companies that buy these cash flowing software companies
as as these founders exit and it's been really really good for some of these names so constellation
software big big toronto-based story that has it's the definition of what compounding is in
the stock market constellation has been really
good of course i like some other canadian names and chouse and open text another niche player
to consider a lot of work in the industrial manufacturing space but also high recurring
revenue is roper technologies about a 40 billion market cap type company trading on the New York Stock
Exchange.
I think that these are really, really good companies.
They're well managed.
Management is everything here.
They have to understand technology.
So definitely research the management structure and how they're incentivized.
But there is a lot of opportunity for these acquirers
to pick up these niche business-to-business,
software-as-a-service companies
that are profitable on day one of their launch,
which I find really, really important
because they're able to spin off cash for the holding company
and rinse and repeat just in a Berkshire Hathaway-type model.
And it's been an
incredible, it's been really good to own these companies over the last 10 years.
Yeah, I mean, totally agree with that. And the one thing to keep in mind with those type of
companies, you want to see companies that are keeping their customers, right? So you want to
see a good customer retention rate, low churnurn so that would be the one thing i would
kind of look with these companies but the like you just said i think one big advantage for the
kind of niche players is because it's a more niche players oftentimes the big players will
not want to get into that because it's just not worth it for them so it kind of gives them
insulation against the uh the big players out there like uh
you know the big tech companies and creating their own product and just stealing their own
their whole business yeah there's way too many verticals and way too many niches for big tech
to go at them they might not be in a dress big enough addressable market but when you combine
all of them together uh it's a huge addressable market and the amount
and and from the acquirer's perspective the number of companies out there for them to go ahead
and purchase is huge consolation software's database of prospects of companies they would
be looking to acquire i've heard as well over a thousand
companies on their radar of cash flowing software as a service companies with insane margins
that are providing a lot of value in those niche spaces for, for companies, business to business.
So I think this is a huge growth trend. Um, and these B2B SaaS companies, I'm a customer of a lot of them. And the amount of
headaches that they solve, automation that they solve, it is a huge, huge ROI for me to be on that
subscription. So they provide a ton of value and it's very very sticky in these niche markets so i i think owning
one of these big acquirers is going to serve investors well oh yeah exactly i know totally
agree so my next one is space exploration so this is probably a super long term. So probably one that will, you know, our own expiry date will be passed before
we see everything that can become out of space exploration. But some companies, obviously,
SpaceX, it's not currently publicly listed, but another one that is but not making any money. So
invest at your own risk is Virgin Galactic. So really, the possibilities are quite endless when you come.
You kind of start thinking about it and borderline dreaming about the future.
You have to think, obviously, there is the obvious solar system and able to harness precious metals from there.
So you're actually, you know, not using Earth for its natural resources as much as we are currently doing.
And you can harness that from other planets or comets or anything passing by.
So if ever we get to that technology,
there could be some really interesting businesses that can profit from that.
That's a good point.
And I don't know if you are as familiar with Raytheon, which just got acquired.
It was actually part of a merger.
Raytheon, which just got acquired, or it was actually part of a merger.
So Raytheon and Lockheed Martin also have sizable positions of their portfolio by revenue in space. So that could be another way to play the R&D in that area.
Yeah, for sure.
But man, you are looking way out.
I like that.
I like that. I like that.
I like that.
Yeah, and that's why I mentioned,
look, we're looking really, really long term.
So, but I think, I do think it's, you know,
it's the way of the future.
When I think is probably the million dollar question
right there.
When is the million dollar question?
So I think that wraps up this episode, guys.
Don't forget that finding
hidden compounders is great but sometimes in the spaces that we just talked about you know payments
being probably one of my favorites it's very obvious these shifts so you can look at these
very obvious trends and find some really, really high quality names
that are growing at outsized paces
compared to the rest of the market.
And I think not being aware of those trends,
you will be wishing that you were on the right side of it.
That does it for this episode, guys.
Thank you so much for listening.
As always, GetStockMarket.com. We have closed the beta test for Stratosphere 2. Thank you so much.
That'll be launching soon. I couldn't believe how many of you guys are interested in the service,
so that is great. More to come on that. We will see you guys next week. Bye-bye.
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