The Canadian Investor - Sell rules and Spotify
Episode Date: June 20, 2020In this episode of the Canadian Investor Podcast we talk about a couple of stocks we recently sold and our sell rules. We finish the episode by talking about Spotify and its audio streaming platform.T...ickers of stocks mentioned : BPY, BPY-UN.TO, BAM, BAM-A.TO, BEP, BEP-UN.TO, BIPC, BIP, BIPC.TO, BIP-UN.TO, NFI.TO, SPOT, BBU, BBU-UN.TO, AP-UN.TO--- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/the-canadian-investor/messageSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Transcript
Discussion (0)
Welcome back into the show. This is the Canadian Investor Podcast, made possible by our friends
and show sponsor, EQ Bank, which helps Canadians make bank with high interest and no fees on
everyday banking. We also love their savings and investment products like GICs, which offer
some of the best rates on the market. I personally, and I know Simone as well, is using the GICs, which offer some of the best rates on the market. I personally,
and I know Simone as well, is using the GICs on a regular basis to set money aside for personal
income taxes in April of every year. Their GICs are perfect because the interest rate is guaranteed,
and I know I won't be able to touch that money until I need it for tax time. Whether you're
looking to set some money aside for a rainy day or a big purchase is
coming through the pipeline or simply want to lower the risk of your overall investment portfolio,
EQ Bank's GICs are a great option. The best thing about EQ Bank is that it is so easy to use. You
can open an account and buy a GIC online in minutes. Take advantage of some of the best rates on the market today at eqbank.ca forward slash
GIC. Again, eqbank.ca forward slash GIC. Live from the great white north, this is the
Canadian Investor, where you take control of your own portfolio and gain the confidence you need to
succeed in the markets. Hosted by Brayden Dennis and Simon Belanger.
The Canadian Investor Podcast, what's up?
Today is Wednesday, June 3rd,
which means we are two days away
from the closure of the Canadian Investor Podcast Index.
We need your submissions.
We have two days left.
So reminder, if you have not put in your TCI index pick,
let me know.
Again, the instructions are you go to getstockmarket.com.
At the top there, there is a form
where you're going to put the ticker of the stock you would own for the foreseeable future, one stock.
You can only pick one.
And give me a short thesis, paragraph to paragraph tops on why you like it and why you want it in the TCI index.
It can be on any North American exchange, Canadian, U.S. stock.
Give me your picks.
All right. I'm Braden Dennis joined by Simon Belanger.
Simon, how are we doing on this June afternoon? Oh, it's going well. Just finished working and
then hopped on the computer to start recording. So summer seems like summer is going to come
around at some point. Had some few nice days, but I think it feels like it's still in the rear view mirror from last year
though. It's because you're in Ottawa, man. It's cold there all the time. So today we are going to
talk about something that I thought was a good topic because if you know me and if you are subscribed to
the Stratosphere Investing membership platform, then you know I hardly ever sell stocks.
I think the winning strategy is to buy and hold and money is made by not selling. It's the art of not selling. However, Simon and I both sold positions in the exact same
sector in the last month, or I don't know when you did it, but I sold mine the last two days.
And I sold the real estate investment trust that I have thought owns the highest quality property in all of Canada,
which I still believe is true, and that is Allied REIT. And Allied REIT has been a tremendous
cash flow compounder, tremendous income grower, and they have been really, really good
at dominating the tech startup landscape in Toronto, Montreal, and other
major cities as well. And Simon, I'm going to speak on your behalf. I know you liquidated
Brookfield Property Partners. Is that correct? Yeah, that's it.
And I wanted to talk about the sell rules that I have. I have very laid out on my website, buy rules and sell rules. And I
think the actually the most important bucket of that is I also have the avoid rules, which we've
talked about companies that I avoid. And I think that's where I've avoided all the mistakes that
are out there in the market of companies that I just simply avoid.
But today, we're going to talk about the sell rules because selling is actually harder than buying in a lot of ways.
If a stock is down, it takes the psychological pain of selling when a stock is down.
I think that means nothing other than a psychological loss if it's in a
registered account. So without further delay, I'm going to talk about my first three sell rules,
which are these are the three sell rules. And then Simon, you can give me your take on them and then say why you particularly sell stock as well.
So I'll go here.
So number one, I sell companies with a slowing top line growth rate.
It's no secret that I like buying companies with a growing top line.
That's just what I like to do. I think that
companies who are generating cash, all cash entering the business comes from the top line.
You want to see that top line growing because if you're not growing, you're sinking,
in my opinion. So as soon as that top line growth starts to stagnate and is trending downwards,
I'm not as excited in the company as I was before. So that's one. Number two,
since I buy companies within a competitive advantage, if I notice that that competitive advantage is significantly changing,
whether there's new disruptors, whether the secular industry has just completely changed,
if I'm noticing a slipping of competitive advantage, then I'm not as interested in the
stock anymore and I will sell it. Number three.
Now, this is similar to number two, but this is the reason that I sold Allied Real Estate Investment Trust,
and is I sell companies that are on the wrong side of a large secular trend.
At the beginning of COVID-19, I didn't think I was going to be selling this office real
estate investment trust that has office space. Because I'm like, ah, people will be back to the
office. People miss the office. And they're building this large headquarters for Shopify,
downtown Toronto. That's going to be their global headquarters. It's great for allied blah, blah, blah. Last week, Shopify, Facebook, Twitter, all announced, we won't be going back
to the office. And then now there's this huge wave and wave and waves of companies that are just not going to be going back to the office or are going to be doing half office, half
home, not just for the rest of COVID, but they're realizing that that is now what they will be doing
moving forward. And I think it is on the wrong side of a large secular trend that you should not ignore.
It is a huge mistake of investors to ignore large, obvious secular shifts
in how we do business and how certain companies operate.
And I would say that office space is on the wrong side of that secular trend and simon i'm imagining that uh you had a
similar mindset with uh with brookfield property partners so do you want to walk us through you
know why that uh came into your mind because as as you know and you'd probably agree with me, selling stocks is harder than buying stocks.
Yeah, so selling is definitely a bit of a psychological challenge when you think about it, because you've put the time, you invested in that company, you did some research.
Well, I hope people did some research when they invest in companies.
So yeah, you have to make that decision. And a lot of people, lost money on it but at the same time uh my
reasoning is can i use those funds and invest them elsewhere and get better returns because that's
really what you have to think even if you're down 25 50 can you sell those um that company and use
those the funds the proceeds that you've you've got from selling elsewhere and get a better return on it.
Because what's done is done. You've invested the money in it. It is what it is right now,
so you have to take a decision. So all the criteria that you mentioned, I think they're
very good criteria. I tend to have an approach that's... I don't have hard set rules, I would say I look at it more at a kind of contextual basis if I like to
to put it because I know there's other podcasts and I think if you guys listen to Andrew Sater
and Investing for Beginner I know Andrew has some very strict guidelines and I don't really agree
with having strict guidelines like that because if you have you can have a good company that'll for example decide to cut their dividend in a really really tough environment or
a black swan event like we're going through right now and the dividend cut might just be on a
temporary basis and it is the right move so selling that company just based on that to me
can be sometimes a mistake so yeah yeah, definitely if there's some
warning sign, like Braden said, slowing of the top line is something I would keep an eye on.
Something else that I always keep an eye on is if management constantly does not fulfill their
promises. So that's why it's important to look at the annual reports, listen to the conference calls, but more than one year, listen five years out and see when management says something, if they're actually doing it.
Because some management teams will promise things and then they'll never deliver on it.
So that's a big of COVID-19.
At the beginning of the year, I did not think I would sell them whatsoever. businesses were closed and the problem with brookfield property partners is the majority
of their assets are actually in um well commercial properties or office buildings and retail they
also have a small portion that's uh housing so apartments that they're renting out but the
problem with office space and retail is those are two places that will be hit very hard going
forward even if we get back and there's a vaccine and people want to go shopping again well there's
a lot of people that probably never thought of doing shopping online before this all started
that now yeah they might go in person once in a while but they're so used to using amazon or
whatever they're using online
that they're going to shift their behaviors. And that's one of the things I think will happen
is even when we do get a vaccine, a lot of behaviors will have changed when it comes to
consuming goods in terms of retail. So that was part of my reasoning for Brookfield. And another
thing that really alarmed me is they said that they would be helping out retailers in their malls.
And they're high quality malls, but they're helping out retailers that are going bankrupt.
Well, there's a lot of red flags there.
If you're trying to help out or bail out some of the retailers because they're your tenants, because they're struggling,
you're loaning them money or giving them money, whatever you're doing with them,
that creates some problems that could very well come later on. And now you're needing more money
to do that. And there's a whole lot of different things that kind of sounded the alarm bells when
it came to Brookfield Property Partners. Obviously, they're different than Allied Property REITs. I think Allied's a bit more off. Is it exclusively office space for
Allied? Not exclusively, but that is their bread and butter. Yeah. Yeah. So it was a little bit of
the same reasoning. And if you compare what's interesting with Brookfield, and we've talked about how we do like Brookfield,
and they have the different Brookfield.
They have Brookfield Property Partners, Brookfield Renewable Partners, Infrastructure Partners,
I think Business Partners, and obviously they have Brookfield Asset Management that owns a good chunk of each.
And if you look at Brookfield Asset Management and you compare it
to Brookfield Infrastructure Partners or Brookfield Renewable Partners, you'll notice that
those two have actually been doing quite well compared to BAM or Brookfield Asset Management
because Brookfield Property Partners has been a drag a little bit on Brookfield Asset Management.
So all that to say that I think your rules are very
good. I tend to look at the situation as a whole. There's not like one specific thing I look at. I
don't have hard set rules personally. I look at it from just a situational perspective. And again,
I think the most important is can I use those funds better elsewhere?
As do-it-yourself investors, we want to keep our
fees low. That's why Simone and I have been using Questrade as our online broker for so many years
now. Questrade is Canada's number one rated online broker by MoneySense. And with them,
you can buy all North American ETFs, not just a few select ones, all commission-free,
North American ETFs, not just a few select ones, all commission-free so that you can choose the ETFs that you want. And they charge no annual RRSP or TFSA account fees. They have an award-winning
customer service team with real people that are ready to help if you have questions along the way.
As a customer myself, I've been impressed with Questrade's customer service. Whenever I call
or email, every support rep is very knowledgeable and they get
exactly what I need done quickly. Switch for free today and keep more of your money.
Visit questrade.com for details. That is questrade.com.
Calling all DIY do-it-yourself investors. Blossom is an essential app for you. It has been blowing up
with now more than 50,000 Canadians plus and growing who are using the app. Every time I go
on there, I am shocked. The engagement is amazing. This is a really vibrant community that they're
building. And people share their portfolios, their trades, their investment ideas in real time.
And it's all built on the concept of transparency because brokerage accounts are linked. And then
once you link your brokerage account, you can get in-depth portfolio insights, track your dividends,
and there's other stuff like learning Duolingo style education lessons that are completely free.
You can search up Blossom Social in the app store and join the community today. I'm on there. I encourage you go on there and follow me, search me up.
Some of the YouTubers and influencers and podcasters that you might know, I bet you
they're already on there. People are just on there talking, sharing their investment ideas
and using the analytics tools. So go ahead, Blossom Social in the app store and I'll see you there.
Go ahead, blossom social in the app store, and I'll see you there.
Very good point.
And yeah, we were talking about Brookfield Property Partners, which is ticker B-P-Y,
correct me if I'm wrong.
And we have talked about the large family of Brookfield companies.
I am still aggressively buying Brookfield Asset Management at these prices. I think it is tremendously undervalued because of that BPY effect on it.
However, it is a very, very small piece of BAM as a whole.
And for that reason, I think it is a tremendous opportunity to pick up Brookfield Asset Management at this price because the
infrastructure partners, BIP is doing incredibly well. They're looking to do some massive
acquisition of a Saudi Arabian company. Excuse me, that was the news today. And you bring up a
good point about retail. We are seeing the amount of bankruptcies happening in retail.
Just this week, Reitman's and Pier One Imports filing last week was JCPenney. This is the
theme of the amount of bankruptcies happening in retail, this is not, this trend is not going to
stop. We are going to see more. The ones that are going first are the ones that already had
the writing on the wall. These are the companies that already had, you know, they were already
going in that direction before COVID. And that was the nail in the coffin,
is the ones we're seeing go first.
But it's not done yet.
Ones that have not shifted to e-commerce effectively
and been late to the game, been slow movers on that,
there's more bankruptcies to come.
Because the economy isn't great, and it leads me to the question
why is the stock market up?
People are asking me why is the stock market up?
The quick answer is
the stock market is divorced from reality sometimes
and it can remain divorced from reality for a long time. So this idea that
people are going to say, oh, it's a V, it's a W, it's a, you know, whatever shape they want to say
recovery. Well, this crystal ball that you seem to have, you know, let me have some of that,
but that's not going to work.
So it can remain divorced from reality for so long that by the time the economy recovers,
the stock market keeps chugging along.
Who knows?
Anywho, I digress.
Those three things you said, I like how you don't have hard set rules. The three rules that I have, as you notice,
are mostly qualitative, other than the slowing top line revenue growth being quantitative.
But again, I don't have it. If it declines more than 5%, I don't have some hard set rule.
And I also like how you brought up selling a stock because they cut their dividend.
And I also like how you brought up selling a stock because they cut their dividend.
It's a somewhat silly rule for a main reason that I'll explain.
If a company cuts their dividend, chances are that before that press release comes out,
the writing was already on the wall that that was going to happen so you either are selling too late
because you weren't you weren't uh you know taking notice that this company's clearly struggling
paying a very unsustainable dividend the payout ratio is too high um and then all of a sudden the
news comes out and you're going to liquidate it and the rest of the market's going to punish it as well. So you were kind of just late to that move, in my opinion. And sometimes a cut of a dividend makes
sense. I tweeted on our podcast Twitter last week that I believe that new flyer, ticker NFI,
the bus manufacturer, should have cut their dividend years ago.
It made no sense that they were paying a 5% yield
and 65% of cash flows to the dividend
when it's in a large growth sector of electric buses
in this electrification movement,
getting awesome government contracts all around the world,
starting to get their
manufacturing back together. It was all the makings of a good turnaround story.
But they're paying out so much to this dividend. And I voiced in the podcast that we talked about
New Flyer, that they should have cut the dividend, and I would have bought the stock.
So I guess it's good that they're using
this, you know, everyone's cutting a lot, a lot of people cutting dividends now in this, in this
environment, and they're able to do it without getting, you know, punished too much. But if I'm
a shareholder of new flyer, it's almost like a, like you can breathe again because this dividend
was gripping their growth, uh, in a, in a company that does not need to be
paying out 70% of cash flows when it's in this large growth industry and starting to execute
better. For me, it made a lot of sense. So I like that you pointed that out.
And you have to keep in mind too exactly to what you were saying is you have to put things into perspective, right?
If a company cut the be cutting the dividend right
now just because they're being cautious about the situation going forward in the next year or two,
and they're being prudent by cutting the dividend and building their cash reserves
and paying off their debt. So those are two really different situations, but two situations where the company actually cut the dividend.
And that's why I don't love having hard rules on selling if the dividend is cut.
I think context is everything when it comes to that.
And if a company you're investing in, you're invested in or looking to invest in, and they've recently cut their dividend dividend dig a bit more into it and understand
why they did it and then that'll give you a good answer whether you should be selling the stock
if you already own it or you know if it's a good if you don't own it maybe it is a good opportunity
to start building a position for the stock absolutely all right those are are why when to sell why to sell a stock i have three hard set
rules um sorry they're not after after all that conversation they're not hard set rules i have
three defined rules in terms of in my mind, if they're, and the reason for selling Allied here that we just
want to bring up is, you do not want to be on the wrong side of a large secular shift.
And this is why I believe over the last 10 years, deep value investors have horrendously underperformed
because they've been on the wrong side of large secular shifts.
And that's why the stock is so deeply underpriced based on previous results.
And they'll say, oh, the intrinsic value or even the cash on the balance sheet is worth
more than the business. They'll say, oh, the intrinsic value or even the cash on the balance sheet is worth more
than the business, yet those valuation multiples never saw the growth and expansion in those
multiples because the business is declining.
It's in the wrong side of a large secular growth trend.
wrong side of a large secular growth trend. And if the writing is on the wall now, it's prudent management to, you know, bite the bullet, say, who cares if you have to sell the stock at a little
bit of a loss, if you're going to deploy that capital into a better idea. And there are so many good ideas out in the stock market that you don't need to, Spotify. You might be listening to this podcast
right now on Spotify. I know I listen to my podcast on Spotify. I used to use Apple Podcasts
and I am an exact example of all the reports coming out in podcasting that spotify month after month quarter after quarter is taking a lot of
market share in the podcasting space they signed joe rogan the joe rogan experience which is the
largest podcast on the planet millions of downloads um every month and it's like incredibly performing. And they're giving him an exclusive deal
to podcast on Spotify.
Spotify has been acquiring different podcast firms
all across the world,
and they are able to monetize them
in very, very creative ways that I'll get into.
So Spotify, if you don't know,
the business model is on a,
well, there's two, there's two pillars, really. There is the one pillar where they have
the freemium model. So you enter in as a free user, you get ads and there's, you know,
ads and there's you know that revenue source from there 60 of users on that freemium will subscribe to the premium which is around 13 bucks a month so it's very similar to a netflix
subscription so you then now are ad free can download it right onto your device, play it offline. And now you're in that
like SaaS model of the 13 a month for the software. So there's the two different users,
and they're monetized different. To give you some numbers here,
286 monthly active users in Q1 of 2020 compared to 217 this time last year, a growth of 31% year-over-year and 5% quarter-over-quarter from Q1 to Q4 2019.
Q4 2019. And the growth of the premium subscribers and the ad supported free users, both being 31% and 32%, respectively. So this business is growing very, very rapidly. And they have all of the makings of like Netflix five years ago. In my opinion,
it is not cash flow positive, so would not meet any of my screens in the investable universe for
Stratosphere membership. However, I think it's worth looking at from potentially a small position in your portfolio
for the reasons of it is on the top of a large secular trend in audio.
And I think they are going to dominate the podcasting space in the next 10 years.
dominate the podcasting space in the next 10 years. That is very clear in the data that they are just taking all of the market share right now. And Apple is losing that. Now, here's the third
thing to this pitch that I think is very interesting. They are very, very good at showing you through machine learning what you want to
listen to. Thank you, Spotify, for, you know, as a user myself, I have found so much good music.
It's incredible. Because of this algorithm that they're doing, they're saying, hey,
brain, you like this? You might also like this. And they're almost always right. So in that they're
collecting so much data, and they're owning now a lot of the podcasting space in terms of creation
of new podcasts, they're going to throw those to the top, monetize those are gonna say, Hey,
listen to this podcast, they're monetizing that podcast and they're getting all this data. If I skip through an ad, oh, Brayden doesn't want to be
sold this toothbrush. Oh, but he listened to this financial high interest savings account.
Let's give him some more of that. So these three amazing verticals of revenue,
collecting revenue like a toll booth
through data, monthly subscription, and advertising,
I think that through audio,
Spotify is going to be a big ticket company
going through the next decade.
The valuation is rich,
so I can't wait for Simon for you to roast me on that.
And it does take a leap of faith
buying companies that are pre-cashflow positive,
no earnings, and is not my style.
However, I look at this company and these numbers
and the secular trends that I'm
seeing, and I'm very interested. So Simon, where in this pitch am I wrong or am I going nuts
looking at companies that are not even close to cashflow positive at this point?
Well, first of all, I never thought I'd hear you talk about a company
that's not close to cash flow positive and not paying a dividend.
I'm kind of surprised.
I'm usually the one that talks about those.
This is the fun money, man.
This is the fun money.
Yeah, I'm usually the one that talks about those.
But yeah, well, my question for you is,
my first one is is and probably my biggest
concern i'd have with spotify is how much pricing power do they have and that's the biggest thing
like i is if they get more content on a podcast that's exclusive to their platform like joe rogan
i can see them having some more pricing power but when it comes to music i mean i i do love their discover weekly
and all that stuff but i feel like a lot of people will have a price point where they'll just be like
you know if it increases too much i'm just gonna switch to another platform so do you do you not
think there's a bit of a limit to the price increases they could give customers when those
yeah to increase their revenue once they the the customer acquisition growth kind of slows down.
As do-it-yourself investors, we want to keep our fees low. That's why Simone and I have been using
Questrade as our online broker for so many years now. Questrade is Canada's number one rated online
broker by MoneySense. and with them, you can buy
all North American ETFs, not just a few select ones, all commission-free, so that you can choose
the ETFs that you want. And they charge no annual RRSP or TFSA account fees. They have an award
winning customer service team with real people that are ready to help if you have questions
along the way. As a customer myself, I've been impressed with Questrade's customer service. Whenever I call or email, every support
rep is very knowledgeable and they get exactly what I need done quickly. Switch for free today
and keep more of your money. Visit questrade.com for details. That is questrade.com.
That is questtrade.com. I go on there, I am shocked. The engagement is amazing. This is a really vibrant community that they're building. And people share their portfolios, their trades, their investment ideas in real time.
And it's all built on the concept of transparency because brokerage accounts are linked. And then
once you link your brokerage account, you can get in-depth portfolio insights, track your dividends,
and there's other stuff like learning Duolingo style education lessons
that are completely free. You can search up Blossom Social in the app store and join the
community today. I'm on there. I encourage you go on there and follow me, search me up.
Some of the YouTubers and influencers and podcasters that you might know, I bet you
they're already on there. People are just on there talking, sharing their investment ideas
and using the analytics tools. So go ahead, Bloss blossom social in the app store and i'll see you there
yeah i i think that's i think that's a fair question uh the pricing power it's sim it's
when i'm looking at this i'm just instantly drawing comparisons to the video streaming and they have all increased prices
as you know netflix has increased prices uh you know effectively without losing their subscriber
base without any churn with or with very little churn and i think that'll continue to happen
and i don't think they need to massively increase prices. They're mostly looking to increase the user base. And if they need to increase prices, you know, they can at least do it at inflation at this point. much makeup, whenever price they want. However, the reason I think it's okay is when I compare
it to Netflix that spends billions of dollars on new content, think of the gross margins on
audio in comparison of nuke of, of if they do their own podcasting platforms, if they do their own,
like they have their own music studios,
like all this kind of stuff,
similar to the path that Netflix took by just dominating all the content that goes into it.
I could see them doing that,
but the margins are so much higher.
Think about how much higher the margins are on a podcasting platform versus Game of Thrones.
And I know that's an HBO show, but as an example, the margins are so much better.
And I see a path to cash flow positive much easier for Spotify than Netflix, even though Netflix is so much bigger.
The margins are, to me, night and day. So the gross margin here on Spotify is 25%,
which is low for software. So I would like them and it's been trending up and they need to
keep trending that up because I think that that will eventually make them cashflow positive.
I just think it's a slightly better business model. I mean, audio,
I take the streetcar to work in Toronto. Every single human is listening to music or podcasting
in the morning. And the amount of influence and advertising that they're able to throw their way,
whether they're a free subscriber or paid subscriber, I think the runway for growth
for them over the next decade is absolutely monstrous so i hope that answers
your question but i like getting grilled on these kinds of things yeah i mean no it's a good way to
put it i think for me it all depends especially on their production if they start uh signing
artists and then kind of owning that content a bit more when especially it comes to audio
excluding um podcasts itself i think it's a good move when especially it comes to audio excluding um podcast
itself i think it's a good move for them to go to podcasts and having original content
traditionally music streaming has not been super profitable for them that i'm aware of
so i think that'll be a big factor in determining how much it can grow the business going forward
and be cash flow positive and And I could see them.
I mean, I really don't know if they've mentioned anything about that.
But that would be interesting if they look into going in the concert business in the years to come.
Because you can probably make a case that Live Nation or Eventbrite or anything like that, they will be struggling big time in the next year or two.
And it could be an opportunity for a Spotify to kind of swoop in and take some of that market share and really tie it in all together with their business.
I think that would work quite well.
Have you ever thought about that?
You should work at Spotify because that's a genius idea.
You know how they show you, hey, you need to go to this concert.
If they have data on you that you really like band A,
and band A is in town next week,
they're going to just absolutely grill you with ticket options the whole time.
It's perfect. It's absolutely perfect.
So yeah, I mean, that's pretty cool. I'm just reading here from their letter to shareholders
for Q1. Our business remains very healthy with more than $1.8 billion in liquidity,
and we expect to be free cash flow positive for the year.
Overall, despite some changes in listening patterns,
we are encouraged with the trends we are seeing
and continue to be optimistic
about the underlying growth fundamentals of the business.
Very interesting.
They expect to be free cash flow positive.
They were in Q4 of 2019, it looks like.
So I'm wondering what the seasonality is in terms of cash flows
i couldn't i really couldn't tell you so i mean that's that's kind of cool within the year they
expect to be free cash free cash positive so i mean would that change your uh your opinion there
simon i mean yeah like it's uh i mean i don't have an issue with
investing companies that are losing money as long as there's a real clear path to profitability and
there's the business is growing um we've talked about uber time and time again i think for them
the only way there will be become profitable is if there's uh self-driving cars like it's that
simple i don't think i can't anticipate them being profitable until then if there's self-driving cars like it's that simple I don't think I
can't anticipate them being profitable until then so there is definitely more
potential for Spotify and for me I see them as a potential disruptor in the music industry as a
whole I think that industry is really is really up for being disrupted just because you have
I've never been a fan of Live Nation because I find they really take advantage
of artists.
So if Spotify can really disrupt that space,
help themselves,
obviously it'll help grow their business,
but at the same time,
even help artists,
I think it,
it would be a win-win situation.
So that's kind of my take on it.
Totally.
Totally.
I agree.
And,
and that 35 cent euros,
actually,
this is a Swedish company.
Yeah.
It's a Swedish company at 35 billion Euro market cap.
You know,
the valuation is,
is quite rich.
I mean,
it's not like there's some small player,
like a 10 bagger turns into only a 350 billion only in euros.
So, you know, that's kind of the other thing, right?
Is this all already priced in?
So these are all the kinds of things that I'm thinking about when I'm looking at this business. But it looks like, if this data is correct, at only five times sales and 4.8 times enterprise value to sales.
So reasonable for the growth rates.
When I look out in the market and I see crazy valuations on much slower growth, this looks quite interesting to me.
growth, this looks quite interesting to me. Usually these fast-growing non-profitable companies that are like these days, 10 times sales, 15 times sales is nowhere out of the norm.
I see that more often than not. So five, if this is correct, looks quite attractive in my opinion.
So let's leave it at that.
We talked about Spotify today.
We talked about when to sell a stock
or when we sell stocks anyways.
We will see you guys next week.
If you have not,
you have two days to give me your pick
to the Stratosphere Index, the Canadian investor pod index. One pick. Give me
a quick thesis. Me and Simon are going to go through them. Watch. We're going to get like 10
Spotify requests now. Give me your best shot, if there's some high flyer
that you're too scared to put in your own portfolio,
but you want to track it through this,
give it to us.
We will put it in the index.
But tell me why.
All right, guys, we will see you next week.
Bye-bye.
The Canadian investor is not to be taken
as investment advice.
Braden or Simone may own securities
mentioned on this podcast.
Always make sure to do your own research and due diligence
before making investment decisions.
Thanks for listening to this episode of The Canadian Investor.
To get a list of the top Canadian dividend stocks right now
and other valuable investing resources,
go to GetStockMarket.com.